Bioinformatics proficiency among African students.

Bioinformatics, the interdisciplinary field that combines biology, computer science, and data analysis, plays a pivotal role in advancing our understanding of life sciences. In the African context, where the diversity of biological resources and healthcare challenges is substantial, fostering bioinformatics literacy and proficiency among students is important. This perspective provides an overview of the state of bioinformatics literacy among African students, highlighting the significance, challenges, and potential solutions in addressing this critical educational gap. It proposes various strategies to enhance bioinformatics literacy among African students. These include expanding educational resources, fostering collaboration between institutions, and engaging students in research projects. By addressing the current challenges and implementing comprehensive strategies, African students can harness the power of bioinformatics to contribute to innovative solutions in healthcare, agriculture, and biodiversity conservation, ultimately advancing the continent's scientific capabilities and improving the quality of life for her people. In conclusion, promoting bioinformatics literacy among African students is imperative for the continent's scientific development and advancing frontiers of biological research.

An Ancient Disease Hepatosplenic Schistosomiasis.

Schistosomiasis is an ancient disease still affecting more than 200 million people worldwide; calcified Schistosome eggs were discovered in Egyptian mummies (1200-900 BC). A 25-year-old man presented to the emergency department with heartburn. He immigrated to the United States from Sub-Saharan Africa. His physical exam revealed hepatosplenomegaly, and he was eventually diagnosed with Schistosomiasis.

Safety and Short-term Efficacy of a Single Dose of 2†mg Moxidectin in Loa loa-Infected Individuals: A Double-Blind, Randomized Ivermectin-Controlled Trial With Ascending Microfilarial Densities.

Background: In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration approved the macrocylic lactone moxidectin (MOX) at 8 mg dosage for onchocerciasis treatment in individuals aged ≥12 years. Severe adverse reactions have occurred after ivermectin (IVM), also a macrocyclic lactone, in individuals with high Loa microfilarial density (MFD). This study compared the safety and efficacy of a 2 mg MOX dose and the standard 150 µg/kg IVM dose in individuals with low L loa MFD. Methods: A double-blind, randomized, ivermectin-controlled trial of a 2 mg moxidectin dose was conducted in Cameroon between May and July 2022. It enrolled 72 adult men with L loa MFD between 5 and 1000 microfilariae/mL. Outcomes were occurrence of adverse events (AEs) and L loa MFD reduction rate during the first month off treatment. Results: No serious or severe AEs occurred among the 36 MOX- or the 36 IVM-treated individuals. Forty-nine AEs occurred in the MOX arm versus 59 AEs in the IVM arm. Grade 2 AE incidence was higher among IVM- than MOX-treated participants (38.5% and 14.3%, respectively, P = .043). Median MFD reduction rates were significantly higher after IVM than MOX at day 3 (70.2% vs 48.5%), day 7 (76.4% vs 50.0%), and day 30 (79.8% vs 48.1%). Conclusions: A single 2 mg MOX dose is as safe as 150 µg/kg IVM in patients with low L loa MFD. Further studies with higher MOX doses and in patients with higher MFD are warranted. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT04049851.

Estimation of the poliovirus type 2 immunity gap in South Africa.

In the context of polio eradication efforts, accurate assessment of vaccination programme effectiveness is essential to public health planning and decision making. Such assessments are often based on zero-dose children, estimated using the number of children who did not receive the first dose of the Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis containing vaccine as a proxy. Our study introduces a novel approach to directly estimate the number of children susceptible to poliovirus type 2 (PV2) and uses this approach to provide district-level estimates for South Africa of susceptible children born between 2017 and 2022. We used district-level data on annual doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) administered, live births, and population sizes, from 2017 through 2022. We imputed missing vaccination data, implemented flexible assumptions regarding dose distribution in the eligible population, and used estimated efficacy values for one, two, three, and four doses of IPV, to compute the number of susceptible and immune children by birth year. We validated our approach by comparing an intermediary output with zero-dose children (ZDC) estimated using data reported by WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC). Our results indicate high heterogeneity in susceptibility to PV2 across South Africa's 52 districts as of the end of 2022. In children under 5 years, PV2 susceptibility ranged from approximately 30 % in districts including Xhariep (31.9 %), Ekurhuleni (30.1 %), and Central Karoo (29.8 %), to less than 4 % in Sarah Baartman (1.9 %), Buffalo City (2.1 %), and eThekwini (3.2 %). Our susceptibility estimates were consistently higher than ZDC over the timeframe. We estimated that ZDC decreased nationally from 155,168 (152,737-158,523) in 2017 to 108,593 in 2021, and increased to 127,102 in 2022, a trend consistent with ZDC derived from data reported by WUENIC. While our approach provides a more comprehensive profile of PV2 susceptibility, our susceptibility and ZDC estimates generally agree in the ranking of districts according to risk.

Factors Influencing the Acceptance or Rejection of Dietary and Body Norm Systems Favorable to the Prevention and Control of Type 2 Diabetes Among Sub-Saharan Africa migrants: A Scoping Review.

INTRODUCTION: The systems of dietary and body that favor the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes (T2D) go against what is vital for most of the migrant population, exposing them to conflicts of norms that are difficult to reconcile. The purpose of this scoping review is to identify factors that may influence the acceptance or rejection of dietary and body norm systems favorable to the prevention and control of T2D by sub-Saharan Africa migrants living with T2D. METHODS: An electronic search of studies from 2011 to 2022, published in English, Italian, French, or Portuguese was conducted in seven databases and in gray literature. The selection of articles was done independently and blindly by six teams of two researchers in accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria defined by the PICO. RESULTS: Seven studies were included. The results show several factors influencing the acceptance or rejection of dietary and body norms systems favorable to the prevention and control of T2D among the migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, mainly social network, income, availability, and affordability of foods, among others. CONCLUSION: Given the paucity of studies available on factors influencing the acceptance or rejection of body norm systems favorable to the prevention and control of T2D by sub-Saharan Africa migrants living with T2D, further studies are needed to better document these factors. A better understanding of these factors and their influence on the well-being of migrant people from sub-Saharan Africa living with T2D could help guide policy, research, and interventions so that they are better adapted to the realities of these populations.

UPESI: Swahili translation of the FAST acronym for stroke awareness campaigns in East Africa.

Introduction: Despite stroke being a leading cause of death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa, stroke awareness remains a major hurdle to early stroke response and care in the region. To improve stroke awareness, we endeavoured to borrow a leaf from initiatives in high-income countries, beginning with the translation and dissemination of the acronym, FAST (Face, Arms, Speech, Time) to Swahili. Methods: We formed a translation group consisting of two stroke physicians, one nurse and two professional translators, all native Swahili speakers. Forward translation of the original document from English to Swahili was done by one Swahili translator; followed by a backward translation by another translator. Clinician reviews and cognitive reviews were then done, and a final translation was developed. Results: We developed the acronym UPESI, a Swahili translation of the word, FAST. The acronym stands for U so kupooza upande mmoja; P ooza mkono/mguu (au kupoteza hisia); ugumu ku- E leza/kuongea; SI mu upesi translating to face drooping, arm/leg paralysis, difficulty in speaking/explaining and fast to the phone. Conclusion: The result of this process is a Swahili translation of the FAST tool for stroke awareness campaigns. The translation will improve communication during stroke campaigns and increase awareness of stroke.

[Prognostic factors for neonatal mortality at the Souro Sanou University Hospital in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso: a cross-sectional study]. / Facteurs pronostiques de la mortalité néonatale au CHU Sourô Sanou de Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso: une étude transversale.

Introduction: to help reduce neonatal mortality in Burkina Faso, we identified the prognostic factors for neonatal mortality at the Sourô Sanou University Hospital. Methods: we conducted a cross-sectional and analytical study in the neonatal department from July 25, 2019 to June 25, 2020. Patients' medical records, consultation and hospital records were reviewed. Prognostic factors for neonatal mortality were identified using a Cox model. Results: data from 1128 newborn babies were analysed. Neonatal mortality was 29.8%. Most of these deaths (89%) occurred in the early neonatal period. The mean weight of newborns at the admission was 2,285.8 ± 878.7 and 43.6%. They were at a healthy weight. Four out of five newborns had been hospitalized for infection or prematurity. The place of delivery (HR weight <1000g = 5.45[3.81 -7.79]) and the principal diagnosis (HR asphyxiation= 1.64[1.30-2.08]) were prognostic factors for neonatal mortality. Conclusion: improving technical facilities for the etiological investigation of infections and an efficient management of low-weight newborns suffering from respiratory distress would considerably reduce in-hospital neonatal mortality in Bobo-Dioulasso.

"Nobody gave me information": Hospital experiences of Ghanaian families after maternal mortalities.

Background: Rates of maternal mortality are highest in low-resource settings. Family members are often involved in the critical periods surrounding a maternal death, including transportation to health centers and financial and emotional support during hospital admissions. Maternal death has devastating impacts on surviving family members, which are often overlooked and understudied. Objective: Our study aimed to explore the hospital experiences of family members surrounding a maternal death, and to define their access to and need for institutional and psychosocial support. Study Design: This mixed methods cross-sectional study was conducted at an urban tertiary hospital in Ghana. Maternal mortalities from June 2019 to December 2020 were identified using death certificates. Participants, defined as husbands or other heads of households in families affected by maternal mortality, were purposively recruited. An interview guide was developed using grounded theory. In-person semi-structured interviews were conducted in English or Twi to explore impacts of maternal mortality on family members, with a focus on hospital experiences. Surveys were administered on types of and needs for institutional support. Interviews were audio recorded, translated, transcribed, coded with an iteratively-developed codebook, and thematically analyzed. Survey data was descriptively analyzed. Results: Fifty-one participants included 26 husbands of the deceased woman, 5 parents, 12 siblings, and 8 second-degree relatives. Interviews revealed an overall negative hospital experience for surviving family members, who expressed substantial dissatisfaction and distress. Four themes regarding the hospital experience emerged from the interviews: 1) poor communication from healthcare workers and hospital personnel, which contributed to 2) limited understanding of the patient's clinical status, hospital course, and cause of death; 3) maternal death perceived as avoidable; and 4) maternal death perceived as unexpected and shocking. Survey data revealed that only 10% of participants were provided psychosocial support following the maternal death event, yet 93.3% of those who did not receive support desired this resource. Conclusion: The hospital experience was overall negative for family members and a lack of effective communication emerged as the root cause of this negative perception. Strategies to improve communication between healthcare providers and families are essential. In addition, there is an unmet need for formal mental health resources for families who experience a maternal death.

Illuminating Perspectives: Navigating Eye Care Access in Sub-Saharan Africa Through the Social Determinants of Health.

Ensuring access to proper eye health services is not only a fundamental human right but also crucial for preserving an individual's quality of life, preventing blindness, and promoting overall well-being. This is especially true in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where recognizing the intricate relationship between access to healthcare and social determinants of health (SDOH ) is crucial to addressing health disparities. The goal of this study was to elucidate and highlight not only the barriers millions face in obtaining eye care but also pave the way for interventions and policies aimed at creating equitable access across diverse populations. To do this, a scoping review was conducted across the Cumulated Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, and PubMed databases for studies meeting the search terms and inclusion criteria. The results show that intervention strategies that increase vision care must extend beyond the healthcare sector to address the multifaceted challenges. Collaborating with stakeholders involved in addressing broader livelihood issues, such as food security, education, and SDOH, becomes imperative to ensure comprehensive and sustainable improvements in vision care accessibility in SSA.

Household- and community-level factors of zero vegetable or fruit consumption among children aged 6-23 months in East Africa.

Introduction: The World Health Organization recommends that children aged 6-23 months should consume a diversified diet, including fruits and vegetables, during each meal. However, low consumption of fruits and vegetables contributes to 2.8% of child deaths globally. The literature review indicates limited research on factors that affect zero vegetable or fruit consumption among children aged 6-23 months in East Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the household- and community-level factors determining zero vegetable or fruit consumption among children aged 6-23 months in East Africa. Method: The study analyzed cross-sectional secondary data from the recent rounds of demographic and health surveys conducted in East Africa from 2015 to 2023. The weighted sample comprised 113,279 children aged 6-23 months. A multilevel mixed-effect analysis was used, measuring the random variation between the clusters based on the intra-cluster correction coefficient, median odds ratio, and proportional change variance. Adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was reported while considering variables having a p < 0.05 as statistically significant. Results: The overall prevalence of zero vegetable or fruit consumption among children aged 6-23 months in East Africa was 52.3%, with Ethiopia showing the highest prevalence (85.9%). The factors associated with zero vegetable or fruit consumption were maternal educational level, number of household members, short birth interval, multiple births, sex of the household head, household wealth index, community-level maternal literacy, community-level wealth index, and countries. Conclusion: Considering the high overall prevalence of zero vegetable or fruit consumption among children aged 6-23 months in East Africa, overlooking this nutritional gap among children is a serious oversight. Therefore, efforts should be geared toward improving individual- and community-level maternal literacy. In particular, nutrition and public health organizations should support low-income communities to achieve vegetable or fruit consumption for infants and young children.

Understanding the impacts of the COVID-19 response measures on Deaf adults in Cape Town.

Background: International literature has evidenced that Deaf people have been disadvantaged during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, there is currently little research published within the South African context. Objectives: This study investigated the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequent response measures impacted Deaf adults in Cape Town. Method: Using a descriptive approach, semi-structured, qualitative interviews were held with 15 Deaf adults in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants were purposively selected through a local Deaf organisation. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Data revealed the challenges experienced when accessing information, the impact of communication barriers on daily life, and how the response measures impacted access to healthcare. Conclusion: The findings of this study demonstrate how the needs of the Deaf community were overlooked and their voices disregarded during the planning of the national pandemic response, ultimately having detrimental consequences. Therefore, the authors argue for greater inclusion of Deaf representatives to ensure equal access to information and resources, especially during a crisis. Contribution: This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the field of disability and insights can inform both future research and interventions to promote equity and inclusion for Deaf people.

Machine learning algorithms to predict healthcare-seeking behaviors of mothers for acute respiratory infections and their determinants among children under five in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5 globally. Maternal healthcare-seeking behavior may help minimize mortality associated with ARIs since they make decisions about the kind and frequency of healthcare services for their children. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the absence of maternal healthcare-seeking behavior and identify its associated factors among children under the age 5 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using machine learning models. Methods: The sub-Saharan African countries' demographic health survey was the source of the dataset. We used a weighted sample of 16,832 under-five children in this study. The data were processed using Python (version 3.9), and machine learning models such as extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest, decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes were applied. In this study, we used evaluation metrics, including the AUC ROC curve, accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure, to assess the performance of the predictive models. Result: In this study, a weighted sample of 16,832 under-five children was used in the final analysis. Among the proposed machine learning models, the random forest (RF) was the best-predicted model with an accuracy of 88.89%, a precision of 89.5%, an F-measure of 83%, an AUC ROC curve of 95.8%, and a recall of 77.6% in predicting the absence of mothers' healthcare-seeking behavior for ARIs. The accuracy for Naïve Bayes was the lowest (66.41%) when compared to other proposed models. No media exposure, living in rural areas, not breastfeeding, poor wealth status, home delivery, no ANC visit, no maternal education, mothers' age group of 35-49 years, and distance to health facilities were significant predictors for the absence of mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviors for ARIs. On the other hand, undernourished children with stunting, underweight, and wasting status, diarrhea, birth size, married women, being a male or female sex child, and having a maternal occupation were significantly associated with good maternal healthcare-seeking behaviors for ARIs among under-five children. Conclusion: The RF model provides greater predictive power for estimating mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviors based on ARI risk factors. Machine learning could help achieve early prediction and intervention in children with high-risk ARIs. This leads to a recommendation for policy direction to reduce child mortality due to ARIs in sub-Saharan countries.

Validation of self-reported male circumcision status and genital ulcer disease among Ugandan men.

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary medical male circumcision (MC) is a critical tool in combination HIV prevention programmes in Africa. Self-reported MC (SrMC) status is used in HIV epidemiological surveys to assess MC coverage but is subject to response bias with limited validation. This study evaluated the utility of SrMC status as a marker of MC as well as self-reported genital lesions for genital ulcer disease (GUD) among Ugandan men. METHODS: Male participants aged 18-49 years in the cross-sectional Sexually Transmitted Infection Prevalence study, conducted between May and October 2019, responded to a questionnaire capturing SrMC status and current genital ulcer symptoms followed by clinical assessment to verify MC and presence of GUD.Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and corresponding CIs (95% CI) for SrMC status and GUD were estimated. RESULTS: There were 853 male participants, of whom 470 (55.1%) self-reported being circumcised and 23 (2.7%) self-reported GUD (SrGUD). MC was clinically confirmed in 50.2% (n=428) of participants with sensitivity of SrMC status at 99% (95% CI: 98% to 100%) and specificity 89% (95% CI: 86% to 92%). Specificity of SrMC was lowest among persons living with HIV and viremic (>1000 copies/mL) at 72% (95% CI: 46% to 90%). 18 participants had clinically confirmed GUD, but only 12 SrGUD symptoms, corresponding to a sensitivity and specificity of 67% (95% CI: 41% to 87%) and 99% (95% CI: 98% to 99%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SrMC status is a robust proxy for clinically confirmed MC status and may reliably be used to assess MC coverage in this setting. Conversely, GUD symptoms were under-reported, which may impact effective syndromic management of sexually transmitted infections and warrants further examination.

Early agriculture and crop transitions at Kakapel Rockshelter in the Lake Victoria region of eastern Africa.

The histories of African crops remain poorly understood despite their contemporary importance. Integration of crops from western, eastern and northern Africa probably first occurred in the Great Lakes Region of eastern Africa; however, little is known about when and how these agricultural systems coalesced. This article presents archaeobotanical analyses from an approximately 9000-year archaeological sequence at Kakapel Rockshelter in western Kenya, comprising the largest and most extensively dated archaeobotanical record from the interior of equatorial eastern Africa. Direct radiocarbon dates on carbonized seeds document the presence of the West African crop cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) approximately 2300 years ago, synchronic with the earliest date for domesticated cattle (Bos taurus). Peas (Pisum sativum L. or Pisum abyssinicum A. Braun) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) from the northeast and eastern African finger millet (Eleusine coracana (L.) Gaertn.) are incorporated later, by at least 1000 years ago. Combined with ancient DNA evidence from Kakapel and the surrounding region, these data support a scenario in which the use of diverse domesticated species in eastern Africa changed over time rather than arriving and being maintained as a single package. Findings highlight the importance of local heterogeneity in shaping the spread of food production in sub-Saharan Africa.

Temporal trends and prognostic impact of reperfusion modalities in Tunisian patients presenting with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A 20-year analysis.

INTRODUCTION: With the advent of reperfusion therapies, management of patients presenting with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has witnessed significant changes during the last decades. AIM: We sought to analyze temporal trends in reperfusion modalities and their prognostic impact over a 20-year period in patients presenting with STEMI the Monastir region (Tunisia). METHODS: Patients from Monastir region presenting for STEMI were included in a 20-year (1998-2017) single center registry. Reperfusion modalities, early and long-term outcomes were studied according to five four-year periods. RESULTS: Out of 1734 patients with STEMI, 1370 (79%) were male and mean age was 60.3 ± 12.7 years. From 1998 to 2017, primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) use significantly increased from 12.5% to 48.3% while fibrinolysis use significantly decreased from 47.6% to 31.7% (p<0.001 for both). Reperfusion delays for either fibrinolysis or primary PCI significantly decreased during the study period. In-hospital mortality significantly decreased from 13.7% during Period 1 (1998-2001) to 5.4% during Period 5 (2014-2017), (p=0.03). Long-term mortality rate (mean follow-up 49.4 ± 30.7 months) significantly decreased from 25.3% to 13% (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, age, female gender, anemia on-presentation, akinesia/dyskinesia of the infarcted area and use of plain old balloon angioplasty were independent predictors of death at long-term follow-up whereas primary PCI use and preinfaction angina were predictors of long-term survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this long-term follow-up study of Tunisian patients presenting for STEMI, reperfusion delays decreased concomitantly to an increase in primary PCI use. In-hospital and long-term mortality rates significantly decreased from 1998 to 2017.

Cardiovascular disease in Sub-Saharan African prisons: a scoping review.

PURPOSE: The dual epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) in Sub-Saharan Africa has increased substantially in recent years, with cardiovascular disease representing a significant contributor to the regional burden of disease. Very little is known about the cardiovascular health of people deprived of their liberty in the region. The purpose of this study was to collate extant literature on the topic. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: A scoping review mapped and described what is known about cardiovascular disease in prison populations in Sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic search of empirical literature with no date limitation was conducted in English. Sixteen studies representing six Sub-Saharan African countries (Cameroon, Nigeria, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Ethiopia) were charted, categorised and thematically analysed. FINDINGS: Seven key themes were identified: custodial deaths and autopsy; cardiorespiratory fitness and exercise; cardiovascular disease and elderly people in prison; cardiovascular disease and women in prison; dietary deficiencies; influence of sleep patterns on cardiovascular disease; and other associated risk factors. Most natural deaths at autopsy of custodial deaths were due to cardiovascular disease. Cardiorespiratory fitness was low in prisons, and poor sleep patterns and dietary deficiencies are likely contributors to the burden of cardiovascular disease in prisons. The needs of elderly and female prison populations are ill-considered. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first known attempt to scope extant literature on cardiovascular disease in Sub-Saharan African prisons. A strategic focus on the cardiovascular health of people in prison is warranted. Routine monitoring and expansion of existing prison health-care services and integration of NCD services with infectious disease (HIV and tuberculosis) programmes in prisons are required.

Natural carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae is associated with increased experimental pneumococcal carriage but reduced conjugate vaccine efficacy in a human challenge model.

BACKGROUND: In Malawi, the national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) demonstrated less herd immunity than the USA, likely due to higher natural pneumococcal carriage rates. We assessed PCV13 efficacy against experimental pneumococcal carriage in healthy Malawian adults. We explored how natural carriage (pneumococcal carriage of any other serotype apart from 6B) influenced experimental carriage rates and vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Healthy adults aged 18-40 were randomly assigned PCV13 (n=98) or saline (n=106), followed by intranasal SPN 6B inoculation at 20,000 (n=40), 80,000 (n=74), or 160,000 (n=90) CFU/100µl, 28 days post-vaccination. We evaluated natural and experimental pneumococcal carriage before and after vaccination on days 2, 7, and 14 post-inoculation using culture and multiplex qPCR targeting lytA/cpsA genes and compared carriage rates by vaccination status. RESULTS: Of 204 participants, 19.6% (40) exhibited experimental carriage, detected by culture and 25.5% (52) by qPCR. Vaccinated individuals had lower experimental carriage rates (10.2%, n=10/98) compared to the placebo group (28.3%, n=30/106). This difference in vaccine efficacy was more pronounced in participants without natural carriage (PCV13=8% n=6/75 vs. placebo=25.9%, n=21/81) compared to those with natural carriage (PCV13=14.8%, n=4/27 vs. placebo=26.5%, n=9/34). Using a log-binomial model, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62%, whether assessed by culture or qPCR. Natural carriers had a lower VE of 52% compared to participants with no natural carriage (VE=69%). CONCLUSION: We have shown that PCV13 VE estimate (62%) is robust whether carriage is assessed by culture or qPCR. PCV13 had lower VE in natural carriers compared to those without natural carriage at the inoculation visit.

A Risk Prediction Model to Identify People Living with HIV Who are High-risk for Disengagement from Care after HIV Diagnosis in South Africa.

The provision of ART in South Africa has transformed the HIV epidemic, resulting in an increase in life expectancy by over 10 years. Despite this, nearly 2 million people living with HIV are not on treatment. The objective of this study was to develop and externally validate a practical risk assessment tool to identify people with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for attrition from care after testing. A machine learning model incorporating clinical and psychosocial factors was developed in a primary cohort of 498 PWH. LASSO regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a model using 80% of the primary cohort as a training dataset and validated using the remaining 20% of the primary cohort and data from an independent cohort of 96 participants. The risk score was developed using the Sullivan and D'Agostino point based method. Of 498 participants with mean age 35.7 years, 192 (38%) did not initiate ART after diagnosis. Controlling for site, factors associated with non-engagement in care included being < 35 years, feeling abandoned by God, maladaptive coping strategies using alcohol or other drugs, no difficulty concentrating, and having high levels of confidence in one's ability to handle personal challenges. An effective risk score can enable clinicians and implementers to focus on tailoring care for those most in need of ongoing support. Further research should focus on potential strategies to enhance the generalizability and evaluate the implementation of the proposed risk prediction model in HIV treatment programs.

RESUMEN: La provisión de TAR (Terapia Antirretroviral) en Sudáfrica ha transformado la epidemia del VIH, resultando en un aumento de la esperanza de vida de más de 10 años. Los últimos objetivos de tratamiento del VIH se sitúan en 94-75-92, con brechas notables después de las pruebas. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar y validar externamente una herramienta práctica de evaluación de riesgos para identificar a las personas con VIH (PVH) con mayor riesgo de deserción del cuidado después de las pruebas. Se desarrolló un modelo sencillo de aprendizaje automático que incorpora factores clínicos y psicosociales en una cohorte primaria de 498 PVH. Se utilizó el análisis de regresión LASSO para optimizar la selección de variables. Se aplicó un análisis de regresión logística multivariable para construir un modelo usando el 80% de la cohorte primaria como conjunto de datos de entrenamiento y validado usando el 20% restante de la cohorte primaria y datos de una cohorte independiente de 96 participantes. El puntaje de riesgo se desarrolló utilizando el método basado en puntos de Sullivan y D'Agostino. De los 498 participantes con una edad media de 35,7 años, 192 (38%) no iniciaron TAR después del diagnóstico. Controlando por sitio, los factores asociados con la no participación en el cuidado incluyeron tener menos de 35 años, sentirse abandonado por Dios, estrategias de afrontamiento desadaptativas usando alcohol u otras drogas, no tener dificultades para concentrarse y tener altos niveles de confianza en la capacidad de manejar desafíos personales. Un puntaje de riesgo efectivo puede permitir a los clínicos y ejecutores enfocarse en personalizar el cuidado para aquellos que más necesitan apoyo continuo. Las investigaciones futuras deben centrarse en estrategias potenciales para mejorar la generalización y evaluar la implementación del modelo de predicción de riesgo propuesto en los programas de tratamiento del VIH.