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Liver cirrhosis causes include alcoholism, viral infections (hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and metabolic dysfunction associated with steatotic liver disease (MASLD), among others. Cirrhosis frequency has increased in recent years, with a prevalence of 1395 cases per 100,000 and a mortality rate of 18 per 100,000, which corresponded to 1,472,000 deaths during 2017. In Mexico, liver disease is a public health problem since it was associated to 41,890 deaths in 2022, including liver cirrhosis (>25,000) and ALD (14,927). This represents 114 daily deaths due to these causes, and corresponds to the 4th or 5th place of all causes. The global prevalence of MASLD is estimated to affect 25% of the world's population, while in the pediatric population it could be higher. In Mexican population it is more prevalent since estimations were around 41.3% in 2023. Alcohol consumption, a global health issue due to its high prevalence and associated morbidities, is associated to ALD in 32.9%, with a mortality rate of 23.9%, primarily due to liver-related causes. In Mexico, ALD is present in 23% of all cirrhosis cases, already surpassed by hepatitis B cases in 2009. HCV and HBV frequencies changed due to programs implementing screening detection, vaccines and direct-acting antivirals during the last years. A switch of causes has occurred, increasing MASLD and diminishing viral causes. Efficient performed liver transplantation has grown as a response to increasing cirrhosis cases, including recent authorized centers. These efforts are necessary, whereas preventive strategies should be implemented according to leading causes.
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We introduce a new modelling for long-term survival models, assuming that the number of competing causes follows a mixture of Poisson and the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. In this context, we present some statistical properties of our model and demonstrate that the promotion time model emerges as a limiting case. We delve into detailed discussions of specific models within this class. Notably, we examine the expected number of competing causes, which depends on covariates. This allows for direct modeling of the cure rate as a function of covariates. We present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation, to discuss the estimation via maximum likelihood (ML) and provide insights into parameter inference for this model. Additionally, we outline sufficient conditions for ensuring the consistency and asymptotic normal distribution of ML estimators. To evaluate the performance of our estimation method, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to provide asymptotic properties and a power study of LR test by contrasting our methodology against the promotion time model. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our model, we apply it to a real medical dataset from a population-based study of incidence of breast cancer in São Paulo, Brazil. Our results illustrate that the proposed model can outperform traditional approaches in terms of model fitting, highlighting its potential utility in real-world scenarios.
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Biometría , Neoplasias de la Mama , Modelos Estadísticos , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/terapia , Humanos , Biometría/métodos , Femenino , Método de Montecarlo , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Análisis de Supervivencia , AlgoritmosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Understanding the local characteristics and statistics related to stillbirths may be the first step in a series of strategies associated with a reduction in stillbirth ratio. The aim of this study was to estimate the fetal mortality ratio and evaluate the investigation processes related to the causes of death, comparing the investigation according to the specific cause of death. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was retrospectively conducted in 10 tertiary obstetric care centers. Medical records of women with stillbirth managed between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018 were analyzed and classified, according to sociodemographic characteristics, and gestational and childbirth data, culminating in stillbirth. The stillbirth ratio and its causes were presented in proportions for the study period and individually for each health facility. RESULTS: Cases of 3390 stillbirths were analyzed. The stillbirth ratio varied from 10.74/1000 live births (LBs) in 2009 to 9.31/1000 in 2018. "Intrauterine hypoxia and asphyxia" (ICD-10 P20) and "unspecific causes of death" (ICD-10 P95) represented 40.8% of the causes of death. Investigation for TORCHS and diabetes occurred in 90.8% and 61.4% of deaths, respectively. Placental and necroscopic tests were performed in 36.6% of the cases. CONCLUSION: The adoption of a rational and standardized investigation of stillbirth remains an unmet need; the use of additional tests and examinations are lacking, especially when unspecific causes are attributed.
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Resumo Fundamento: Em pediatria, a parada cardiorrespiratória (PCR) está associada a alta mortalidade e graves sequelas neurológicas. Informações sobre as causas e mecanismos de morte abaixo de 20 anos poderiam fornecer subsídios teóricos para a melhoria da saúde de crianças e adolescentes. Objetivos: Realizar uma análise populacional das taxas de mortalidade por causas primárias e múltiplas de morte abaixo de 20 anos, em ambos os sexos, no período de 1996 a 2019, no Brasil, e identificar a frequência com que a PCR foi registrada nas declarações de óbito (DOs) desses indivíduos e os locais de ocorrência dos óbitos, a fim de promover estratégias para melhorar a prevenção de mortes. Método: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais de óbitos em indivíduos menores de 20 anos, no período de 1996 a 2019, avaliando as taxas de mortalidade (TMs) e a mortalidade proporcional (MP) por causa básica de morte. Foram analisados os percentuais de PCR registrados em qualquer linha da DO e o local de ocorrência dos óbitos. Foram calculadas as TMs por 100 mil habitantes e a MP por causa básica de morte nos menores de 20 anos segundo sexo e faixa etária, os percentuais de óbito por causas básicas por faixa etária quando a PCR foi descrita em qualquer linha das Partes I e II da DO, e o percentual de óbitos por causas básicas segundo o local de ocorrência. Os dados foram retirados do DATASUS, IBGE e SINASC. Resultados: De 1996 a 2019, ocorreram 2.151.716 óbitos de menores de 20 anos, no Brasil, gerando uma taxa de mortalidade de 134,38 por 100 mil habitantes. A taxa de óbito foi maior entre os recém-nascidos do sexo masculino. Do total de óbitos, 249.334 (11,6%) tiveram PCR registrada em qualquer linha da DO. Especificamente, a PCR foi registrada 49.178 vezes na DO na faixa etária entre 1 e 4 anos e em 88.116 vezes entre 29 e 365 dias, correspondendo, respectivamente, a 26% e 22% dos óbitos nessas faixas etárias. Essas duas faixas etárias apresentaram as maiores taxas de PCR registradas em qualquer linha da DO. As principais causas básicas de óbito quando a PCR foi registrada na sequência de óbitos foram doenças respiratórias, hematológicas e neoplásicas. Conclusão: As causas perinatais e externas foram as principais causas de morte, com maior TM nos menores de 20 anos no Brasil de 1996 a 2019. Quando consideradas as causas múltiplas de morte, as principais causas primárias associadas à PCR foram as doenças respiratórias, hematológicas e neoplásicas. A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu no ambiente hospitalar. Melhor compreensão da sequência de eventos nesses óbitos e melhorias nas estratégias de ensino em ressuscitação cardiopulmonar pediátrica são necessárias.
Abstract Background: In pediatrics, cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) is associated with high mortality and severe neurologic sequelae. Information on the causes and mechanisms of death below the age of 20 years could provide theoretical support for health improvement among children and adolescents. Objectives: To conduct a population analysis of mortality rates due to primary and multiple causes of death below the age of 20 years in both sexes from 1996 to 2019 in Brazil, and identify the frequency in which CPA was recorded in the death certificates (DCs) of these individuals and the locations where the deaths occurred, in order to promote strategies to improve the prevention of deaths. Method: Ecological time-series study of deaths below the age of 20 years from 1996 to 2019, evaluating the mortality rates (MRs) and proportional mortality (PM) by primary cause of death. We analyzed the percentages of CPA recorded in any line of the DC and the location where the deaths occurred. We calculated the MRs per 100,000 inhabitants and the PM by primary cause of death under the age of 20 years according to sex and age group, the percentages of death from primary causes by age group when CPA was described in any line of Parts I and II of the DC, and the percentage of deaths from primary causes according to their location of occurrence. We retrieved the data from DATASUS, IBGE, and SINASC. Results: From 1996 to 2019, there were 2,151,716 deaths below the age of 20 years in Brazil, yielding a mortality rate of 134.38 per 100,000 inhabitants. The death rate was highest among male neonates. Of all deaths, 249,334 (11.6%) had CPA recorded in any line of the DC. Specifically, CPA was recorded in 49,178 DCs between the ages of 1 and 4 years and in 88,116 of those between the ages of 29 and 365 days, corresponding, respectively, to 26% and 22% of the deaths in these age groups. These two age groups had the highest rates of CPA recorded in any line of the DC. The main primary causes of death when CPA was recorded in the sequence of death were respiratory, hematologic, and neoplastic diseases. Conclusion: Perinatal and external causes were the primary causes of death, with highest MRs under the age of 20 years in Brazil from 1996 to 2019. When multiple causes of death were considered, the main primary causes associated with CPA were respiratory, hematologic, and neoplastic diseases. Most deaths occurred in the hospital environment. Better understanding of the sequence of events in these deaths and improvements in teaching strategies in pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation are needed.
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CONTEXT: Both the aging of the population and the increase in noncommunicable diseases may influence the progression and outcomes culminating in death, changing the evolution of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) and their associated causes. Using the multiple causes of death method could help understand the magnitude of these relationships and enable better targeting of investments in health. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the mortality from IHD in Brazil between 2006 and 2020 using the method of multiple causes and identify differences in the distribution pattern of IHD mortality by sex and geographic region. METHODS: Based on information extracted from death certificates (DCs) obtained from the database of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), we used the multiple causes method to analyze the causes of death associated with IHD when IHD was defined as the underlying cause of death (UC) and the causes of death listed as the UC when IHD was recorded in any other lines of the DC, from 2006 to 2020, in Brazil. Subsequently, the proportion of these causes of death and differences between sexes and geographic regions were evaluated, with statistical relevance analyzed using the chi-square test, and the dependence between factors illustrated using stacked bar charts and small-world network graphs. RESULTS: When IHD was listed as the UC of death, the most frequent associated causes of death were, in descending order of frequency, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), arterial hypertension (AH), chronic ischemic heart disease (CHID), heart failure (HF), and diabetes mellitus (DM). When IHD was mentioned in any line of the DC, the most frequent UCs of death were AMI followed by DM, CIHD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, dyslipidemia, and, in the year 2020, COVID-19. The most frequent cause of death in women were DM as the UC and associated cause of death, AH as the UC, and CIHD and Alzheimer's disease as associated causes of death, while the most frequent causes of death in men were substance dependence as the UC and associated cause of death, and cancer as an associated cause of death. The most frequent causes of death were DM and stroke in the North and Northeast, dyslipidemia and obesity in the Midwest, Alzheimer's disease in the South and Southeast, and atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD) and COPD in the South. CONCLUSIONS: Several diseases - including AMI, AH, CIHD, HF, and DM - were the most frequent associated causes of death when IHD was recorded as the UC. In contrast, AMI, DM, CIHD, COPD, and stroke were the most frequent UCs when IHD was listed as an associated cause of death. The degree of these associations varied between sexes and geographic regions.
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Enfermedad de Alzheimer , Diabetes Mellitus , Dislipidemias , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Hipertensión , Infarto del Miocardio , Isquemia Miocárdica , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Accidente Cerebrovascular , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Causas de Muerte , Brasil/epidemiología , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Background and Objectives: given the great demand for hospitalization due to external causes, as well as the growing number of cases of infections in health services, it can be said that these are important issues and that they represent a huge challenge to be faced by professionals and health managers around the world. Therefore, this article aims to describe the profile of individuals hospitalized for external causes in an Intensive Care Units (ICUs) who underwent a culture test and identify the main microorganisms that cause infection. Methods: a cross-sectional study carried out with patients suffering from external causes, admitted to an ICU of a general hospital in Bahia. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, presented in absolute and relative frequencies. Results: a total of 259 admissions to the ICU due to external causes were identified, of which 59 (22.78%) underwent cultures, of which 48 (81.35%) were men, 43 (72.88%) were brown, 32 (54.24%) did not have a partner and 35 (59.32%) suffered transport accidents. Regarding the use of devices, 54 (91.52%) patients were on invasive mechanical ventilation, 54 (91.50%) used an indwelling urinary catheter and 54 (91.52%) had a central venous catheter. The main microorganisms identified in the culture were of the genera Staphylococcus (17; 28.9%) and Pseudomonas (10; 16.9%). Conclusion: it is concluded that admissions to ICU resulting from external causes in patients who underwent culture were of men, who suffered transport accidents, used invasive devices, and the main infections are related to microorganisms of the genus Staphylococcus.(AU)
Antecedentes y Objetivos: Dada la gran demanda de hospitalización debido a causas externas, así como el creciente número de casos de infecciones en servicios de salud, se puede decir que estos son temas importantes y representan un enorme desafío a enfrentar por profesionales y gestores de salud en todo el mundo. Por lo tanto, este artículo tiene como objetivo describir el perfil de los individuos hospitalizados por causas externas en Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) que se sometieron a una prueba de cultivo e identificar los principales microorganismos que causan infección. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio transversal con pacientes que sufrían causas externas, admitidos en una UCI de un hospital general en Bahía. Los datos se analizaron utilizando estadísticas descriptivas, presentadas en frecuencias absolutas y relativas. Resultados: Se identificó un total de 259 ingresos a la UCI debido a causas externas, de los cuales 59 (22,78%) se sometieron a cultivos, de los cuales 48 (81,35%) eran hombres, 43 (72,88%) eran pardos, 32 (54,24%) no tenían pareja y 35 (59,32%) sufrieron accidentes de transporte. En cuanto al uso de dispositivos, 54 (91,52%) pacientes estaban en ventilación mecánica invasiva, 54 (91,50%) usaron catéter urinario de demora y 54 (91,52%) tenían un catéter venoso central. Los principales microorganismos identificados en el cultivo fueron del género Staphylococcus (17; 28,9%) y Pseudomonas (10; 16,9%). Conclusión: Se concluye que los ingresos a la UCI resultantes de causas externas en pacientes que se sometieron al cultivo fueron de hombres, que sufrieron accidentes de transporte, usaron dispositivos invasivos, y las principales infecciones están relacionadas con microorganismos del género Staphylococcus.(AU)
Justificativa e Objetivos: Dada a grande demanda por hospitalização devido a causas externas, assim como o crescente número de casos de infecções em serviços de saúde, pode-se dizer que esses são temas importantes e representam um enorme desafio a ser enfrentado por profissionais e gestores de saúde ao redor do mundo. Portanto, este artigo tem como objetivo descrever o perfil dos indivíduos hospitalizados por causas externas em Unidades de Terapia Intensiva (UTIs) que se submeteram a um teste de cultura e identificar os principais microrganismos que causam infecção. Métodos: Um estudo transversal foi realizado com pacientes que sofriam de causas externas, admitidos em uma UTI de um hospital geral na Bahia. Os dados foram analisados utilizando estatísticas descritivas, apresentadas em frequências absolutas e relativas. Resultados: Um total de 259 internações na UTI devido a causas externas foi identificado, dos quais 59 (22,78%) foram submetidos a culturas, sendo 48 (81,35%) homens, 43 (72,88%) pardos, 32 (54,24%) não tinham parceiro e 35 (59,32%) sofreram acidentes de transporte. Em relação ao uso de dispositivos, 54 (91,52%) pacientes estavam em ventilação mecânica invasiva, 54 (91,50%) usaram cateter urinário de demora e 54 (91,52%) tinham um cateter venoso central. Os principais microrganismos identificados na cultura foram dos gêneros Staphylococcus (17; 28,9%) e Pseudomonas (10; 16,9%). Conclusão: Conclui-se que as internações na UTI decorrentes de causas externas em pacientes que se submeteram à cultura foram de homens, que sofreram acidentes de transporte, usaram dispositivos invasivos, e as principais infecções estão relacionadas a microrganismos do gênero Staphylococcus. (AU)
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Humanos , Infección Hospitalaria , Causas Externas , Infecciones , Unidades de Cuidados IntensivosRESUMEN
This data article explores the factors that contribute to cost overrun on public sector projects within Trinidad and Tobago. The data was obtained through literature research, and structured questionnaires, designed using open-ended questions and the Likert scale. The responses were gathered from project actors and decision-makers within the public and private construction industry, mainly, project managers, contractors, engineers, architects, and consultants. The dataset was analysed using frequency, simple percentage, mean, risk impact, and fuzzy logic via the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method (FSE). The significance of the analysed data is to determine the critical root causes of cost overrun which affect public sector infrastructure development projects (PSIDPs), from being completed on time and within budget. The dataset is most useful to project and construction management professionals and academia, to provide additional insight into the understanding of the leading factors associated with cost overrun and the critical group in which they occur (political factors). Such understanding can encourage greater decisions under uncertainty and complexity, thus accounting for and reducing cost overrun on public sector projects.
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Resumen: El artículo muestra el impacto directo e indirecto del COVID-19 en la esperanza de vida de Chile durante el año 2020, utilizando las estadísticas de defunciones definitivas publicadas en marzo del año 2023. Para ello, se estimó una mortalidad contrafactual para año 2020 sin el COVID-19, siguiendo el patrón de mortalidad según causas de muerte desde 1997 a 2019, se elaboraron tablas de mortalidad para calcular la esperanza de vida para los años 2015 a 2020 y para el año 2020 estimado, y luego se descompuso la diferencia entre la esperanza de vida esperada y observada del año 2020 según grupos de edad y causas de muerte. La esperanza de vida del año 2020 quiebra la tendencia a su aumento entre 2015 y 2019, mostrando un retroceso, en hombres y en mujeres, con respecto al año 2019, de 1,32 y 0,75 años respectivamente. Con respecto al año 2020 estimado, la esperanza de vida del 2020 observado es 1,51 años menor en hombres y 0,92 en mujeres, pero el impacto directo del COVID-19 en pérdida de esperanza de vida fue mayor, 1,89 para los hombres y 1,5 para las mujeres, concentrándose en las edades entre los 60 y 84 años en hombres y entre 60 y 89 años en mujeres. El impacto directo negativo del COVID-19 a la esperanza de vida en parte fue contrarrestado por impactos indirectos positivos significativos en dos grupos de causas de muerte, las enfermedades del sistema respiratorio y las enfermedades infecciosas y parasitarias. El estudio muestra la necesidad de distinguir los impactos directos e indirectos del COVID-19, por la incidencia que pueden tener en la salud pública cuando el COVID-19 baje su intensidad y se eliminen las restricciones de movilidad.
Abstract: This article shows the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Chile in 2020, based on mortality statistics published in March 2023. To this end, a counterfactual mortality was estimated for 2020 without COVID-19; based on the pattern of mortality by cause of death from 1997 to 2019, mortality charts were created to calculate life expectancy from 2015 to 2020 and an estimation for 2020, and the difference between expected and observed life expectancy in 2020 was then separated by age group and cause of death. Life expectancy in 2020 interrupted the upward trend from 2015 to 2019, showing a decline of 1.32 years in men and 0.75 years in women compared to 2019. Compared to the estimated 2020, life expectancy was 1.51 years lower in men and 0.92 years lower in women, but the direct impact of COVID-19 on the decrease in life expectancy was greater (1.89 for men and 1.5 for women) in the 60-84 age group in men and the 60-89 age group in women. The direct negative impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy was partially mitigated by significant positive indirect impacts on two groups of causes of death: diseases of the respiratory system and infectious and parasitic diseases. This study shows the need to differentiate direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, due to the implications for public health when the intensity of COVID-19 decreases and mobility restrictions are suspended.
Resumo: Este artigo apresenta os impactos direto e indireto da COVID-19 na expectativa de vida no Chile em 2020 a partir de estatísticas de mortalidade publicadas em março de 2023. Para tanto, foi estimada uma mortalidade contrafactual para 2020 sem a COVID-19; a partir do padrão de mortalidade por causa de morte de 1997 a 2019, foram criadas tabelas de mortalidade para calcular a expectativa de vida para o período de 2015 a 2020 e para o ano estimado de 2020 e, em seguida, a diferença entre a expectativa de vida esperada e observada em 2020 foi separada por faixa etária e causa de morte. A expectativa de vida em 2020 interrompe a tendência de aumento entre 2015 e 2019, mostrando um declínio com relação a 2019 de 1,32 ano nos homens e 0,75 ano nas mulheres. Com relação ao ano estimado de 2020, a expectativa de vida observada é 1,51 ano menor nos homens e 0,92 nas mulheres, mas o impacto direto da COVID-19 na diminuição da expectativa de vida foi maior (1,89 para homens e 1,5 para mulheres), concentrando-se nas idades entre 60 e 84 anos nos homens e entre 60 e 89 anos nas mulheres. O impacto direto negativo da COVID-19 na expectativa de vida foi parcialmente atenuado por impactos indiretos positivos significativos em dois grupos de causas de morte: doenças do sistema respiratório e doenças infecciosas e parasitárias. Este estudo mostra a necessidade de diferenciar impactos diretos e indiretos da COVID-19, devido às implicações para a saúde pública quando a intensidade da COVID-19 diminuir e as restrições de mobilidade forem suspensas.
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ABSTRACT Conditions related to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are still a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Longer survival in this population were reported to increase the risk of developing noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to estimate the survival and causes of death according to age group and sex among PLHIV monitored at two referral centers in the Northeastern Brazil. This is a prospective, retrospective cohort with death records from 2007 to 2018, based on a database that registers causes of death using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10), which were subsequently coded following the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe). A total of 2,359 PLHIV participated in the study, with 63.2% being men, with a follow-up period of 13.9 years. Annual mortality rate was 1.46 deaths per 100 PLHIV (95% CI: 1.33 - 1.60) with a frequency of 20.9%. Risk of death for men increased by 49% when compared to women, and the risk of death in PLHIV increased by 51% among those aged 50 years and over at the time of diagnosis. It was observed that 73.5% accounted for AIDS-related deaths, 6.9% for non-AIDS defining cancer, 6.3% for external causes, and 3.2% for cardiovascular diseases. Among the youngest, 97.2% presented an AIDS-related cause of death. Highest frequency of deaths from neoplasms was among women and from external causes among men. There is a need for health services to implement strategies ensuring greater adherence to treatment, especially among men and young people. Moreover, screening for chronic diseases and cancer is essential, including the establishment of easily accessible multidisciplinary care centers that can identify and address habits such as illicit drug use and alcoholism, which are associated with violent deaths.
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ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the prevalence and factors associated with external causes in elderly people attended by the mobile emergency care service. Method: Cross-sectional study with 1,972 pre-hospital care records of elderly victims of external causes from 2019 to 2020. A descriptive and bivariate analysis was performed, with a significance level of 5% (p<0.05). Results: The prevalence of external causes in elderly people attended by the mobile emergency service was 12.2%. Falling was the most frequent occurrence. The associations of the occurrence of falls with age from 90 years old (OR=29.31; p<0.001) and female gender (OR=5.38; p<0.001) stood out, as well as the suspicion of ingestion of alcoholic beverages with occurrence of violence (OR=4.17; p<0.001) and traffic accidents (OR=1.97; p<0.001). Conclusion: The study showed factors associated with injuries due to external causes in theelderly and may support the formulation of coping strategies for this problem.
RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar la prevalencia y los factores asociados a causas externas en ancianos atendidos por el servicio de atención móvil de urgencia. Método: Estudio transversal con 1.972 registros de atención pre hospitalaria de ancianos víctimas de causas externas en el período de 2019 a 2020.Se realizó un análisis descriptivo y bivariado, con un nivel de significación del 5% (p<0,05). Resultados: La prevalencia de causas externas en adultos mayores atendidos por el servicio de emergencia móvil fue de 12,2%. La caída fue la ocurrencia más frecuente. Se destacaron las asociaciones de la ocurrencia de caídas con la edad a partir de 90 años (OR=29,31; p<0,001) y el género femenino (OR=5,38; p<0,001), así como la sospecha de ingesta de bebidas alcohólicas con la ocurrencia de violencia (OR=4,17; p<0,001) y accidentes de tránsito (OR=1,97; p<0,001). Conclusión: El estudio mostró factores asociados a las lesiones por causas externas en ancianos y puede apoyar la formulación de estrategias de enfrentamiento de este problema.
RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a prevalência e fatores associados a causas externas em idosos atendidos pelo serviço de atendimento móvel de urgência. Método: Estudo transversal com 1.972 fichas de atendimento pré-hospitalar de idosos vítimas de causas externas no período de 2019 a 2020. Realizou-se análise descritiva e bivariada, com nível de significância de 5% (p<0,05). Resultados: A prevalência de causas externas em idosos atendidos pelo serviço móvel de urgência foi de 12,2%. A queda foi a ocorrência mais frequente. Destacaram-se as associações da ocorrência de queda com a idade a partir de 90 anos (OR=29,31; p<0,001) e o sexo feminino (OR=5,38; p<0,001), bem como da suspeita de ingestão de bebida alcoólica com a ocorrência de violência (OR=4,17; p<0,001) e acidentes de trânsito (OR=1,97; p<0,001). Conclusão: O estudo evidenciou fatores associados aos agravos por causas externas em idosos e poderá subsidiar formulação de estratégias de enfrentamento a essa problemática.
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ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of fetal mortality and its components, of avoidable and ill-defined causes according to two avoidability classifications in Recife, Pernambuco, 2010-2021. Method: Ecological study of temporal trends of fetal mortality in Recife, 2010-2021. The Brazilian List of Avoidable Causes of Death for fetal deaths (LBE-OF) and Brazilian List of Avoidable Causes of Death for children under five years of age (LBE < 5) were used. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the temporal trends. Results: Trends in fetal mortality and its components were stationary. The group of avoidable causes presented higher mortality rates in both classifications, with an increasing trend according to the LBE-OF (Annual Percentage Change-APC: 2,1; p = 0,018) and stationary according to the LBE < 5. There was a decreasing trend in mortality from ill-defined causes only according to the LBE-OF (APC: -12,3; p < 0,001). Conclusion: The results showed the stagnation of the temporal trend in fetal mortality, the avoidability of most deaths, and the potential of LBE-OF in monitoring the quality of information on the basic causes and avoidability of fetal deaths.
RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad fetal y sus componentes, causas evitables y mal definidas según dos clasificaciones de evitabilidad en Recife, Pernambuco, 2010-2021. Metodología: Estudio ecológico de tendencias temporales de la mortalidad fetal en Recife, 2010-2021. Se utilizó la Lista Brasileña de Causas Evitables de Muerte para muertes fetales (LBE-OF) y la Lista Brasileña de Causas Evitables de Muerte para niños menores de cinco años (LBE < 5). Se aplicó el modelo de regresión Joinpoint para analizar las tendencias temporales. Resultados: Las tendencias en la mortalidad fetal y sus componentes se mantuvieron estacionarias. El grupo de causas evitables presentó mayores tasas de mortalidad en ambas clasificaciones, con tendencia creciente según LBE-OF (Variación Porcentual Anual-APC: 2,1; p = 0,018) y estacionaria según LBE < 5. Hubo tendencia decreciente para la mortalidad por causas mal definidas sólo según LBE-OF (APC: -12,3; p < 0,001). Conclusión: Los resultados mostraron el estancamiento de la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad fetal, la evitabilidad de la mayoría de las muertes y el potencial del LBE-OF para monitorear la calidad de la información sobre las causas básicas y la evitabilidad de las muertes fetales.
RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal da mortalidade fetal e de seus componentes, das causas evitáveis e mal definidas segundo duas classificações de evitabilidade no Recife, Pernambuco, 2010-2021. Método: Estudo ecológico de tendência temporal para a mortalidade fetal no Recife, 2010-2021. Foram utilizadas as classificações de evitabilidade Lista Brasileira de Causas de Morte Evitáveis para óbitos fetais (LBE-OF) e Lista Brasileira de Causas de Morte Evitáveis para menores de cinco anos (LBE < 5). O modelo de regressão Joinpoint foi aplicado para analisar as tendências temporais. Resultados: As tendências da mortalidade fetal e de seus componentes foram estacionárias. O grupo de causas evitáveis apresentou maiores taxas de mortalidade nas duas classificações, com tendência crescente segundo a LBE-OF (Variação Percentual Anual-APC: 2,1; p = 0,018) e estacionária segundo a LBE < 5. Houve tendência decrescente para a mortalidade por causas mal definidas apenas conforme a LBE-OF (APC: -12,3; p < 0,001). Conclusão: Os resultados evidenciaram a estagnação da tendência temporal da mortalidade fetal, a evitabilidade da maior parte dos óbitos, e a potencialidade da LBE-OF no monitoramento da qualidade das informações sobre as causas básicas e evitabilidade dos óbitos fetais.
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Abstract Objectives: to analyze neonatal deaths according to avoidability and to analyze the temporal trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR) in Niterói/RJ, 2012-2022. Methods: ecological time series study. Data from Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos and Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. NMRs were calculated according to maternal and neonatal variables and trends were estimated using the joinpoint regression. Results: the annual number of live births (LB) fell, with a decreasing trend among adolescents and those with low education level. Of the 324 deaths, most occurred early (0-6 days), by preventable causes in 68.6%, predominating those reducible by adequate care during pregnancy. The overall NMR remained stable, ranging from 4.2 to 6/1,000 LB, being higher at the extremes of maternal age (12.7 and 8.6/1,000 LB in 2022, adolescents and over 35 years old, respectively), in low education level mothers (27.6/1,000 LB in 2022), in neonates <1,500g and <32 weeks (293.1 and 250/1,000 LB in 2022, respectively). NMR trend was upward in low schooling women, white-colored, adolescents and those ≥35 years, in babies weighing <1,500g and >2,500g, and for avoidable causes. Conclusions: the high proportion of preventable causes reveals the reduction potential. There was inequality in NMR and its trend, demanding more equitable health actions.
Resumo Objetivos: analisar os óbitos neonatais segundo evitabilidade e a tendência temporal da taxa de mortalidade neonatal (TMN) em Niterói/RJ, de 2012-2022. Métodos: estudo ecológico de série temporal. Dados provenientes do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos e Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. As TMN foram calculadas segundo variáveis maternas e neonatais e as tendências estimadas pela regressão joinpoint. Resultados: o número anual de nascidos vivos (NV) diminuiu, com tendência decrescente entre mães adolescentes e de baixa escolaridade. Dos 324 óbitos, a maioria ocorreu precocemente, por causas evitáveis (68,6%), predominando aquelas reduzíveis por adequada atenção à gestação. A TMN global mostrou estabilidade, entre 4,2 e 6,0/1000NV, mais elevada nos extremos etários maternos (12,7 e 8,6/1.000 NV em 2022, adolescentes e maiores de 35 anos, respectivamente), nas mães com baixa escolaridade (27,6/1.000 NV em 2022), nos neonatos <1.500g e <32 semanas (293,1 e 250/1.000 NV em 2022, respectivamente). A tendência da TMN foi crescente entre mulheres de baixa escolaridade, brancas, adolescentes e ≥35 anos, nas faixas de peso <1.500g e >2.500g, e por causas evitáveis. Conclusões: a elevada proporção de causas evitáveis revela o potencial de redução. Houve desigualdade da TMN e sua tendência, demandando ações de saúde mais equânimes.
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Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Recién Nacido , Embarazo en Adolescencia , Mortalidad Infantil , Estudios de Series Temporales , Causas de Muerte , Escolaridad , Estudios Ecológicos , Nacimiento Vivo/epidemiología , Brasil , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Sistemas de Información en Salud , Factores SociodemográficosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Mortality is affected by several factors, including the place of residence. Several studies have found a gap in mortality between urban and rural residents. This study aimed to describe adjusted mortality rates in urban and rural areas of Mexico. METHODS: Adjusted mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants was estimated in urban and rural areas of Mexico, were grouped by sex, age, and main cause of death. Trend analysis was performed with a logarithmic regression of adjusted rates. RESULTS: Mortality was higher in urban (622.1/100 000 inhabitants) than rural (549.5/100 000 inhabitants) areas of Mexico. Males showed the highest mortality rate in both studied areas, urban and rural (737.8 and 634.4/100 000 inhabitants respectively). A significant annual decrease of 0.5% in mortality rates was observed in both areas. CONCLUSION: In Mexico, there is a gap in mortality rates based on individuals' place of residence. Those who live in urban areas present the highest mortality rates.
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Mortalidad , Población Rural , Masculino , Humanos , México/epidemiología , Población Urbana , Recolección de DatosRESUMEN
In the 2020s, understanding disaster risk requires a strong and clear recognition of values and goals that influence the use of political and economic power and social authority to guide growth and development. This configuration of values, goals, power and authority may also lead to concrete drivers of risk at any one time. Building on previous disaster risk frameworks and experiences from practice, since 2010, the 'Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN)' approach has been developed to support transdisciplinary research on the transformational pathways societies may follow to recognise and address root causes and drivers of disaster risk. This article explores and assesses the achievements and failures of the FORIN approach. It also focuses on shedding light upon key requirements for new approaches and understandings of disaster risk research. The new requirements stem not only from the uncompleted ambitions of FORIN and the forensic approach but also from dramatic and ongoing transformational changes characterised by climate change, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the threat of global international confrontation, among other potential crises, both those that can be identified and those not yet identified or unknown. Contribution: Disasters associated with extreme natural events cannot be treated in isolation. A comprehensive "all risks" or "all disasters" approach is essential for a global transformation, which could lead to a better world order. To achieve this, an Intergovernmental Panel for Disaster Risk is suggested to assess risk science periodically and work towards sustainability, human rights, and accountability, within a development and human security frame and on a systemic basis and integrated perspective.
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Introducción: Las enfermedades crónicas repercuten en gran medida en la calidad de vida de los pacientes, ya sea por sus características inherentes o por las complicaciones derivadas que ocasionan emergencias recurrentes. Objetivo: Pronosticar los días de hospitalización hasta el desenlace de pacientes con enfermedad crónica ingresados en un hospital público peruano. Métodos: Se realizó una investigación descriptiva, retrospectiva y transversal, entre julio y agosto del 2022, con 488 pacientes con enfermedad crónica ingresados en el Hospital Regional Docente de Cajamarca. Los datos demográficos de ingreso y el tipo de diagnóstico de los pacientes fueron proporcionados por la oficina de estadística del hospital. El análisis univariado se realizó con distribuciones absolutas y relativas, junto a sus intervalos de confianza al 95 por ciento y la relación pronóstica con Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) - ji al cuadrado, análisis de supervivencia de Kaplan-Meier (p < 0,05) y tablas de mortalidad. Resultados: El 53,1 por ciento de pacientes fueron mujeres, con 67,1 años de edad promedio, ingresaron al hospital por el servicio de emergencia (66,0 por ciento) y la enfermedad crónica fue la causa principal (79,1 por ciento). El promedio de hospitalización fue de 67,5 días, con mayor número en la hipertensión arterial (63 días), las diferencias numéricas en el tiempo de hospitalización según enfermedad crónica no se reflejan a nivel estadístico (p = 0,130). Las defunciones ocurrieron dentro del primer mes de hospitalización. Conclusión: Los días de hospitalización hasta el desenlace no son independientes de la enfermedad crónica de los pacientes, pues en ambos casos pueden ocurrir defunciones si sus características clínicas son irrecuperables(AU)
Introduction: Chronic diseases greatly impact the quality of life of patients, either due to their inherent characteristics or due to the derived complications that cause recurrent emergencies. Objective: To predict the days of hospitalization until the outcome of patients with chronic disease admitted to a Peruvian public hospital. Methods: A descriptive, retrospective and cross-sectional investigation was carried out from July to August 2022, with 488 patients with chronic disease admitted to Cajamarca Regional Teaching Hospital. Admission demographic data and type of patient diagnosis were provided by the hospital statistics office. The univariate analysis was performed with absolute and relative distributions, along with their 95percent confidence intervals and the prognostic relationship with Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) - chi square, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (p < 0.05) and mortality tables. Results: 53.1percent of patients were women, with average age of 67.1 years, who were admitted to the hospital through the Emergency Service (66.0percent) and chronic disease was the main cause (79.1percent). The average hospitalization time was 67.5 days, with greater number in high blood pressure (63 days). The numerical differences in hospitalization time, according to chronic disease, are not reflected at a statistical level (p = 0.130). Deaths occurred within the first month of hospitalization. Conclusion: The days of hospitalization until the outcome are not independent of the patients' chronic illness, since in both cases deaths can occur if their clinical characteristics are irrecoverable(AU)
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Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Enfermedad Crónica/mortalidad , Causas de Muerte , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiología , Hospitalización/tendencias , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Epidemiología Descriptiva , Estudios Transversales , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
El presente estudio de carácter descriptivo y analítico tiene como objetivo principal presentar el comportamiento criminal en Colombia para el 2022, desde un enfoque cuantitativo empleado para la extracción, análisis e interpretación de los registros administrativos del Sistema de Información Estadístico, Delincuencial, Contravencional y Operativo (SIEDCO), constituyéndose como un insumo para aquellos interesados en el estudio de la dinámica criminal, así como para quienes se encargan de diseñar estrategias para la contención del delito y la generación de política pública en materia de seguridad. En este sentido y en el marco de las dinámicas sociodemográficas, en una primera parte se aborda de manera general el proceso de homogenización de los registros administrativos llevado a cabo por la Policía Nacional y la Fiscalía General de la Nación. Y en una segunda parte, con especial énfasis en el homicidio intencional, se presenta el análisis de la información que permitió identificar las principales variables que influyen en la comisión del delito, de acuerdo con las cifras contenidas en el SIEDCO, en el periodo comprendido entre el 1 de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2022, comparado con la misma temporalidad del 2021, en el que se detallan los delitos que afectan la integridad personal y el patrimonio económico de quienes habitan el territorio colombiano; se hallaron incrementos considerables en estos y se resaltan los factores de oportunidad para su comisión, situación contraria a la que se evidenció sobre las afectaciones a la vida y la integridad, conjunto de conductas que, según lo registrado, decrecieron en el periodo analizado. Finalmente, se ofrece un aporte a la contención desde la actividad de policía y una serie de conclusiones que permitan ampliar la visión sobre los diversos fenómenos y enriquecer la generación de conocimiento en el campo de la criminología.
The main objective of this descriptive and analytical study is to present criminal behaviour in Colombia for 2022, from a quantitative approach used for the extraction, analysis and interpretation of the administrative records of the Statistical, Criminal, Contraventional and Operational Information System (SIEDCO), constituting an input for those interested in the study of criminal dynamics, as well as for those responsible for designing strategies for the containment of crime and the generation of public policy on security. In this sense, and within the framework of socio-demographic dynamics, the first part of the paper deals in a general way with the process of homogenisation of administrative records carried out by the National Police and the Attorney General's Office. The second part, with special emphasis on intentional homicide, presents the analysis of the information that made it possible to identify the main variables that influence the commission of the crime, according to the figures contained in SIEDCO, in the period between 1 January and 31 December 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, in which the crimes that affect the personal integrity and economic patrimony of those who live in Colombian territory are detailed; considerable increases were found in these and the factors of opportunity for their commission are highlighted, contrary to the situation that was evidenced in the affectations to life and integrity, a group of conducts that, according to what was recorded, decreased in the period analysed. Finally, we offer a contribution to containment from the police activity and a series of conclusions that allow us to broaden the vision of the diverse phenomena and enrich the generation of knowledge in the field of criminology.
O principal objetivo deste estudo descritivo e analítico é apresentar o comportamento criminal na Colômbia para 2022, a partir de uma abordagem quantitativa utilizada para a extração, análise e interpretação dos registros administrativos do Sistema de Informação Estatística, Criminal, Contravencional e Operacional (SIEDCO), constituindo um insumo para os interessados no estudo da dinâmica criminal, bem como para os responsáveis pela elaboração de estratégias para a contenção do crime e a geração de políticas públicas de segurança. Nesse sentido, e dentro da estrutura da dinâmica sociodemográfica, a primeira parte do artigo trata de forma geral do processo de homogeneização dos registros administrativos realizado pela Polícia Nacional e pela Procuradoria Geral da República. A segunda parte, com ênfase especial no homicídio doloso, apresenta a análise das informações que permitiram identificar as principais variáveis que influenciam o cometimento do crime, de acordo com os números contidos no SIEDCO, no período entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de dezembro de 2022, em comparação com o mesmo período de 2021, no qual são detalhados os crimes que afetam a integridade pessoal e o patrimônio econômico daqueles que vivem em território colombiano; Neles foram encontrados aumentos consideráveis e são destacados os fatores de oportunidade para seu cometimento, ao contrário da situação que se evidenciou nas afetações à vida e à integridade, grupo de condutas que, segundo o que foi registrado, diminuiu no período analisado. Finalmente, oferecemos uma contribuição para a contenção da atividade policial e uma série de conclusões que nos permitem ampliar a visão dos diversos fenômenos e enriquecer a geração de conhecimento no campo da criminologia.
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Humanos , Robo , ColombiaRESUMEN
Fundamento: según la Organización Mundial de la Salud la diabetes causa 300 000 muertes al año en América Latina y el Caribe y en la provincia Cienfuegos desde el año 2020 se ubica como séptima causa de fallecimientos. Objetivo caracterizar la mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en la provincia Cienfuegos en los primeros nueve meses del año 2020. Métodos: se realizó una investigación en sistemas y servicios de salud de tipo descriptiva a partir de una serie de casos para caracterizar la mortalidad por diabetes mellitus en Cienfuegos en los primeros nueve meses del año 2020. Los fallecidos se compilaron teniendo en cuenta: sexo, edad, color de la piel, nivel de escolaridad, lugar de residencia, estrato territorial, enfermedad, factores de riesgo asociados y causas de muertes directas. Se emplearon la media aritmética y la desviación estándar. Los resultados se presentan en forma de tablas y gráficos. Resultados la mayor afectación estuvo en las últimas décadas de la vida para el género femenino, así como la residencia en un territorio urbano, están entre las primeras causas directas de muerte el tromboembolismo pulmonar, así como la insuficiencia renal crónica agudizada, se destaca el desequilibrio hidroelectrolítico en un número considerable de las defunciones. Conclusiones las últimas décadas de la vida fueron las más afectadas y el sexo femenino, las principales causas de muerte fueron: el tromboembolismo pulmonar y la insuficiencia renal crónica agudizada. El desequilibrio hidroelectrolítico sobresale en un considerable número de los fallecidos.
Foundation: according to the World Health Organization, diabetes causes 300,000 deaths a year in Latin America and the Caribbean and in the Cienfuegos province since 2020 it ranks as the seventh cause of death. Objective: to characterize mortality from diabetes mellitus in the Cienfuegos province in the first nine months of 2020. Methods: a descriptive investigation was carried out on health systems and services based on a series of cases to characterize mortality from diabetes mellitus in Cienfuegos in the first nine months of 2020. The deceased were compiled taking into account: sex, age, skin color, educational level, place of residence, territorial stratum, disease, associated risk factors and direct causes of death. The arithmetic mean and standard deviation were used. The results are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Results: the greatest affectation was in the last decades of life for the female gender, as well as residence in an urban territory, among the first direct causes of death are pulmonary thromboembolism, as well as acute chronic renal failure; hydroelectrolytic imbalance stands out in a considerable number of deaths. Conclusions: the last decades of life were the most affected and the female sex, the main causes of death were: pulmonary thromboembolism and acute chronic renal failure. The hydroelectrolytic imbalance stands out in a considerable number of the deceased.
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In the complex context of French Guiana, different vulnerabilities and different risk factors between genders may lead to complex differences in health outcomes, mortality, and life expectancy. Our aim was, thus, to compare male and female mortality and life expectancy, to compare it between French Guiana and mainland France, and to look at temporal trends and the main specific causes of death in order to identify actionable singularities. National databases were used to obtain life expectancy at birth, at 20, 40, and 60 years, and mortality statistics. Standardized death rates and causes of death for French Guiana and mainland France were obtained through the CEPIDC, which analyzes information from death certificates. When comparing with mainland France, life expectancy at birth was significantly shorter both in males and females (mean = -2.9 years); life expectancy at 20 years, which allows to remove the effect of the greater child mortality in French Guiana, was also shorter in French Guiana for males (mean = -1.8 years) and females (mean = -2 years). The differences between mainland France and French Guiana regarding life expectancy at 40 and 60 years (mean = -1.5 and -1.3 years) was mainly found among females, males in French Guiana life expectancy at 40 and 60 years was closer to that in mainland France (mean = -0.8 and -0.6 years). Although they have a greater life expectancy at birth than men, women in French Guiana are substantially more affected by overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes. The observed patterns of life expectancy at different ages presumably reflect the burden of external causes and AIDS in males and perhaps metabolic diseases in women.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Recién Nacido , Niño , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Guyana Francesa/epidemiología , Caracteres Sexuales , Esperanza de Vida , FranciaRESUMEN
Cure rate models have been widely studied to analyze time-to-event data with a cured fraction of patients. In this type of model, the number of concurrent causes is assumed to be a random variable. However, in practice, it is natural to admit that the distribution of the number of competing causes is different from individual to individual. Our proposal is to assume that the number of competing causes belongs to a class of a finite mixture of competing causes distributions. We assume the number of malignant cells follow a mixture of two power series distributions and suppose that the time to the event of interest follows a Weibull distribution. We consider the proportion of the cured number of competing causes depending on covariates, allowing direct modeling of the cure rate. The proposed model includes several well-known models as special cases and defines many new special models. An expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation, where the expectation step involves the computation of the expected number of concurrent causes for each individual. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to assess the behavior of the estimation method. In order to show the potential for the practice of our model, we apply it to the real medical data set from a population-based study of incident cases of cutaneous melanoma diagnosed in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, illustrating that the model proposed can outperform traditional models in terms of model fitting.
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Melanoma , Neoplasias Cutáneas , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Análisis de Supervivencia , Melanoma/diagnóstico , Brasil , Simulación por Computador , AlgoritmosRESUMEN
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become a public health concern over the last several years. Nowadays developed countries spend around 3% of their annual health-care budget on patients with CKD. According to the scientific community the most remarkable risk factors for CKD are diabetes and hypertension. Unknown CKD etiology has been reported as a global phenomenon including uncommon risk factors such as: dehydration, leptospirosis, heat stress, water quality, and others. This study aims to report non-traditional risk factors for ESRD based on a scoping review methodology. The scoping review methodology described by Arksey and O'Malley was used by performing an extensive review of the information. A total of 46 manuscripts were reviewed. The non-traditional ESRD risk factors are depicted based on six categories. Gender and ethnicity have been considered as risk factors for ESRD. Erythematous systemic lupus (ESL) is reported as an important risk factor for ESRD. Pesticide use has been an significant risk factor due to its effects on human and environmental health. Some compounds commonly used in homes against insects and plants are related to ESRD. Congenital and hereditary diseases in the urinary tract have been studied as a cause of ESRD in children and young adults. End-stage renal disease is a major concern for public health on a global level. As it can be seen, non-traditional risk factors are several and have different etiologies. It is necessary to put the issue on the table and add it to the public agenda in order to find multidisciplinary solutions.