RESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Knowledge about predictors of nursing home placement is highly relevant. If they are known, targeted interventions such as counselling can help prevent or delay relocation to a nursing home. Above all, preventive and structural measures can target influenceable predictors. The aim of the review was to map predictors of nursing home admission and thus the permanent stay in inpatient long-term care for the target group of people with a pre-existing need for care. METHODS: A systematic literature search in the databases The Cochrane Library, PubMed, CINAHL, GeroLit and CareLit® was conducted in September 2017. Longitudinal studies with quantitative analyses were included. The methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: 45 cohort studies were included. 21 studies examined study populations with need for care, in 24 studies the care status was unclear. A variety of predictors of nursing home admission with at least one-and-a-half times higher risk for both study populations could be identified, including higher age, dementia, underweight, higher age of caregiver, psychiatric symptoms, smoking status, ethnicity, challenging behaviour in people with dementia, higher number of hospitalizations and lower level of life satisfaction. DISCUSSION: All the predictors identified are relevant to people in need of care. No predictors for the study population with need of care could be identified that are particularly important in contrast to persons with an unclear care status. However, the quality of studies among people with care and support needs is limited compared to studies targeting people with unclear care status. CONCLUSIONS: Many factors seem to predict the admission to a nursing facility. For the first time, these factors are listed in this systematic review for the target group of people in need of care. Interventions or preventive measures based on known influenceable predictors can help prevent or delay nursing home admission.