Estimating effects of monsoon flooding on household water access.

The importance of climate in water resources management is well recognized, but less is known about how climate affects water access at the household level. Understanding this is crucial for identifying vulnerable households, reducing health and well-being risks, and finding equitable solutions. Using difference-in-differences regression analyses and relying on temporal variation in interview timing from multiple, cross-sectional surveys, we examine the effects of monsoon riverine flooding on household water access among 34 000 households in Bangladesh in 2011 and 2014. We compare water access, a combined measure of both water source and time for collection, among households living in flood-affected and non-flood-affected districts before and after monsoon flooding events. We find that households in monsoon flood-affected districts surveyed after the flooding had between 2.27 and 4.42 times higher odds of experiencing low water access. Separating geographically, we find that while households in coastal districts have lower water access than those in non-coastal districts, monsoon flood exposure is a stronger predictor of low water access in non-coastal districts. Non-coastal districts were particularly burdened in 2014, when households affected by monsoon flooding had 4.71 times higher odds of low water access. We also find that household wealth is a consistent predictor of household water access. Overall, our results show that monsoon flooding is associated with a higher prevalence of low water access; socioeconomically vulnerable households are especially burdened.

Method and process towards developing a Health Vulnerability Index (HVI) for Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) for local residents in South Africa.

An increase in incidence and amplitude of extreme weather events (EWEs) linked to climate change, has resulted in greater human exposure and vulnerability to weather-related health effects. Increases in the occurrence of EWEs, including storms, flooding, extreme heat and wildfires, will impact health globally, with poor and vulnerable populations disproportionately affected. Vulnerability to EWEs, and the ability to adapt to these weather shocks, are influenced by existing physical, social and political limitations of a given region. As such, developing context-specific health vulnerability indices to inform planning and decision-making for policy makers and citizens alike, should be prioritized. The existence and development of health vulnerability indices in South Africa are limited, therefore, this study provides a foundation from which future indices can build. Mixed methods approaches including evidence and data analysis/synthesis and focus groups are used to understand the interconnections between extreme weather events and human health, including citizens' understanding of emergent vulnerabilities linked to these events. The methods employed in this study include: •A rapid evidence review (RER) including data extraction identifying health impacts and indicators.•Development of a draft health vulnerability index (HVI) framework.•Focus groups and individual interviews testing the draft HVI for citizen input and framework refinement.

[The impact of the Ahr Valley flood on the health of the local population - an analysis based on SHI routine data]. / Auswirkungen des Ahrtal-Hochwassers auf die Gesundheit der lokalen Bevölkerung ­ eine Analyse auf Grundlage von GKV-Routinedaten.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, Germany has experienced flood events that posed a threat to the health of the local population. However, there is a paucity of studies on the health consequences of these events. Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate the health consequences of the Ahr Valley flood in 2021. METHODS: The data basis of this longitudinal study are nationwide billing data (inpatient/outpatient) of the BKK-Landesverband Nordwest. The study region was Ahrweiler and the study periods were the third quarters of 2020 and 2021. Among other things, prevalence rate ratio tests were used to determine which diagnoses (inpatient/outpatient) were spatially and temporally associated with the flood event on the basis of ICD-10 coding. RESULTS: The results show a significant increase in billed services for some diagnosis groups in the inpatient sector. In particular, there was an increase in F diagnoses (mental and behavioural disorders), S diagnoses (injuries) and various diagnosis codes within Z codes (factors influencing health status and leading to healthcare utilisation). In the outpatient sector, a decrease was observed in many diagnosis groups (F and Z diagnoses). CONCLUSION: The results of the study showed that the mental health of the local population was particularly affected by the floods. Healthcare was also affected. As floods are expected to become more frequent and severe in the future, measures to protect the population and health infrastructure need to be adapted accordingly.

Divergent ecological responses to typhoon disturbance revealed via landscape-scale acoustic monitoring.

Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events across the globe. Understanding the capacity for ecological communities to withstand and recover from such events is critical. Typhoons are extreme weather events that are expected to broadly homogenize ecological dynamics through structural damage to vegetation and longer-term effects of salinization. Given their unpredictable nature, monitoring ecological responses to typhoons is challenging, particularly for mobile animals such as birds. Here, we report spatially variable ecological responses to typhoons across terrestrial landscapes. Using a high temporal resolution passive acoustic monitoring network across 24 sites on the subtropical island of Okinawa, Japan, we found that typhoons elicit divergent ecological responses among Okinawa's diverse terrestrial habitats, as indicated by increased spatial variability of biological sound production (biophony) and individual species detections. This suggests that soniferous communities are capable of a diversity of different responses to typhoons. That is, spatial insurance effects among local ecological communities provide resilience to typhoons at the landscape scale. Even though site-level typhoon impacts on soundscapes and bird detections were not particularly strong, monitoring at scale with high temporal resolution across a broad spatial extent nevertheless enabled detection of spatial heterogeneity in typhoon responses. Further, species-level responses mirrored those of acoustic indices, underscoring the utility of such indices for revealing insight into fundamental questions concerning disturbance and stability. Our findings demonstrate the significant potential of landscape-scale acoustic sensor networks to capture the understudied ecological impacts of unpredictable extreme weather events.

Heat wave-induced microbial thermal trait adaptation and its reversal in the Subarctic.

Climate change predictions suggest that arctic and subarctic ecosystems will be particularly affected by rising temperatures and extreme weather events, including severe heat waves. Temperature is one of the most important environmental factors controlling and regulating microbial decomposition in soils; therefore, it is critical to understand its impact on soil microorganisms and their feedback to climate warming. We conducted a warming experiment in a subarctic birch forest in North Sweden to test the effects of summer heat waves on the thermal trait distributions that define the temperature dependences for microbial growth and respiration. We also determined the microbial temperature dependences 10 and 12 months after the heat wave simulation had ended to investigate the persistence of the thermal trait shifts. As a result of warming, the bacterial growth temperature dependence shifted to become warm-adapted, with a similar trend for fungal growth. For respiration, there was no shift in the temperature dependence. The shifts in thermal traits were not accompanied by changes in α- or ß-diversity of the microbial community. Warming increased the fungal-to-bacterial growth ratio by 33% and decreased the microbial carbon use efficiency by 35%, and both these effects were caused by the reduction in moisture the warming treatments caused, while there was no evidence that substrate depletion had altered microbial processes. The warm-shifted bacterial thermal traits were partially restored within one winter but only fully recovered to match ambient conditions after 1 year. To conclude, a summer heat wave in the Subarctic resulted in (i) shifts in microbial thermal trait distributions; (ii) lower microbial process rates caused by decreased moisture, not substrate depletion; and (iii) no detectable link between the microbial thermal trait shifts and community composition changes.

Thermoregulatory consequences of growing up during a heatwave or a cold snap in Japanese quail.

Changes in environmental temperature during development can affect growth, metabolism and temperature tolerance of the offspring. We know little about whether such changes remain to adulthood, which is important to understand the links between climate change, development and fitness. We investigated whether phenotypic consequences of the thermal environment in early life remained in adulthood in two studies on Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Birds were raised under simulated heatwave, cold snap or control conditions, from hatching until halfway through the growth period, and then in common garden conditions until reproductively mature. We measured biometric and thermoregulatory [metabolic heat production (MHP), evaporative water and heat loss (EWL, EHL) and body temperature] responses to variation in submaximal air temperature at the end of the thermal acclimation period and in adulthood. Warm birds had lower MHP than control birds at the end of the thermal acclimation period and, in the warmest temperature studied (40°C), also had higher evaporative cooling capacity compared with controls. No analogous responses were recorded in cold birds, although they had higher EWL than controls in all but the highest test temperature. None of the effects found at the end of the heatwave or cold snap period remained until adulthood. This implies that chicks exposed to higher temperatures could be more prepared to counter heat stress as juveniles but that they do not enjoy any advantages of such developmental conditions when facing high temperatures as adults. Conversely, cold temperature does not seem to confer any priming effects in adolescence.

Health System Response to the 2023 Floods in Emilia-Romagna, Italy: A Field Report.

In May 2023, the Italian region Emilia-Romagna was hit by intense rainfall, which caused extensive floods in densely populated areas. On May 4, 2023, a 12-month state of emergency was declared in the region with the activation of response and recovery plans. This field report provides an overview of the health response to the floods, paying particular attention to the measures put in place to ensure care for displaced populations and raising interesting points of discussion regarding the role of the health system during extreme weather events (EWEs). The considerations that emerge from this report underline the need for a primary care approach to disasters, especially when these occur in areas with a high prevalence of elderly resident population, and underscore the importance of integration of different levels of care.

Infants exposed in utero to Hurricane Maria have gut microbiomes with reduced diversity and altered metabolic capacity.

The gut microbiome is a potentially important mechanism that links prenatal disaster exposures with increased disease risks. However, whether prenatal disaster exposures are associated with alterations in the infant's gut microbiome remains unknown. We established a birth cohort study named Hurricane as the Origin of Later Alterations in Microbiome (HOLA) after Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico in 2017. We enrolled vaginally born Latino term infants aged 2 to 6 months, including n = 29 infants who were exposed in utero to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico and n = 34 infants who were conceived at least 5 months after the hurricane as controls. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing was performed on infant stool swabs. Infants exposed in utero to Hurricane Maria had a reduced diversity in their gut microbiome compared to the control infants, which was mainly seen in the exclusively formula-fed group (P = 0.02). Four bacterial species, including Bacteroides vulgatus, Clostridium innocuum, Bifidobacterium pseudocatenulatum, and Clostridium neonatale, were depleted in the exposure group compared to the control group. Compositional differences in the microbial community and metabolic genes between the exposure and control groups were significant, which were driven by the formula feeding group (P = 0.02 for the microbial community and P = 0.008 for the metabolic genes). Metabolic modules involved in carbohydrate metabolism were reduced in the exposure group. Prenatal maternal exposure to Hurricane Maria was associated with a reduced gut commensal and an altered microbial composition and metabolic potential in the offspring's gut. Breastfeeding can adjust the composition of the gut microbiomes of exposed infants. IMPORTANCE Climate change is a serious issue that is affecting human health. With more frequent and intense weather disasters due to climate change, there is an urgent need to evaluate and understand the impacts of prenatal disaster exposures on the offspring. The prenatal stage is a particularly vulnerable stage for disease origination. However, the impact of prenatal weather disaster exposures on the offspring's gut microbiome has not been evaluated. Our HOLA study starts to fill this knowledge gap and provides novel insights into the microbiome as a mechanism that links prenatal disaster exposures with elevated disease risks. Our major finding that reduced microbial diversity and altered metabolic capacity are associated with prenatal hurricane exposures warrants further studies to evaluate the impact of weather disasters on the unborn.

Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.

The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.

Viral respiratory infections in a rapidly changing climate: the need to prepare for the next pandemic.

Viral respiratory infections (VRIs) cause seasonal epidemics and pandemics, with their transmission influenced by climate conditions. Despite the risks posed by novel VRIs, the relationships between climate change and VRIs remain poorly understood. In this review, we synthesized existing literature to explore the connections between changes in meteorological conditions, extreme weather events, long-term climate warming, and seasonal outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics of VRIs from an interdisciplinary perspective. We proposed a comprehensive conceptual framework highlighting the potential biological, socioeconomic, and ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climate change on VRIs. Our findings suggested that climate change increases the risk of VRI emergence and transmission by affecting the biology of viruses, host susceptibility, human behavior, and environmental conditions of both society and ecosystems. Further interdisciplinary research is needed to address the dual challenge of climate change and pandemics.

Survival and physiological energetics of highly invasive mussels exposed to heatwaves.

The South American mussel, Mytella strigata, is a highly invasive fouling species of great concern along intertidal shores in East and Southeast Asia, posing serious threats to native biodiversity and ecosystems. Intertidal areas, being increasingly attacked by heatwaves over the last decade, are among the most thermally challenging habitats, yet the fate of this highly invasive mussel under scenarios of hotter heatwaves remains unknown. Here, we investigated how M. strigata responded to intensifying heatwaves frequently occurring in the South China Sea. Over 97% of individuals survived the five-day-lasting heatwaves, suggesting their high ability to cope with short-term heatwaves. Virtually unaffected clearance rate and absorption efficiency throughout the course of heatwaves indicate the maintenance of energy acquisition, and significantly decreased respiration rate implies the depression of energy metabolism, generating significant decreases in the O:N ratio when heatwaves occurred. Scope for growth of heatwaves-stressed mussels significantly decreased during initial exposure and then increased over time. These findings indicate the remarkable ability of M. strigata to cope with heatwaves recorded in its invasive habitats and call the attention for the rapid spread of this highly invasive fouling species in the context of climate change.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on byssus production in highly invasive fouling mussels.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are projected to increase in their frequency, intensity, and duration, causing irreversible and catastrophic consequences for intertidal ecosystems around the world. The highly invasive fouling mussel, Arcuatula senhousia, can cause marked habitat alteration by constructing extremely intense byssal mats, devastating the biodiversity of many intertidal systems, yet very little is known about its fate under conditions of more frequent, hotter and longer MHWs. Here, we assessed impacts of two scenarios of MHWs (low-intensity with 4 °C rise of seawater temperature and high-intensity with 8 °C rise, respectively) on the byssal production of A. senhousia. Mussels exposed to low-intensity MHWs did not show any significant differences in the number, length and diameter of byssal threads, compared with those not thermally stressed. Under high-intensity scenario, the byssus production was significantly depressed, and byssal threads became fewer, shorter and finer, in line with significant decreases in cumulative length and volume. These findings provide a better understanding of responses of invasive fouling mussels such as A. senhousia to MHWs and make a leap forward in linking climate change and biological fouling in marine ecosystems.

Transcriptomic responses reveal impaired physiological performance of the pearl oyster following repeated exposure to marine heatwaves.

Marine heatwaves are predicted to become more intense and frequent in the future, possibly threatening the survival of marine organisms and devastating their communities. While recent evidence reveals the adaptability of marine organisms to heatwaves, substantially overlooked is whether they can also adjust to repeated heatwave exposure, which can occur in nature. By analysing transcriptome, we examined the fitness and recoverability of the pearl oyster (Pinctada maxima) after two consecutive heatwaves (24 °C to 32 °C for 3 days; recovery at 24 °C for 4 days). In the first heatwave, 331 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were found, such as AGE-RAGE, MAPK, JAK-STAT, FoxO and mTOR. Despite the recovery after the first heatwave, 2511 DEGs related to energy metabolism, body defence, cell proliferation and biomineralization were found, where 1655 of them were downregulated, suggesting a strong negative response to the second heatwave. Our findings imply that some marine organisms can indeed tolerate heatwaves by boosting energy metabolism to support molecular defence, cell proliferation and biomineralization, but this capacity can be overwhelmed by repeated exposure to heatwaves. Since recurrence of heatwaves within a short period of time is predicted to be more prevalent in the future, the functioning of marine ecosystems would be disrupted if marine organisms fail to accommodate repeated extreme thermal stress.

Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Rice-Wheat Rotation Croplands.

Cropland ecosystems are significant emission sources of N2O, but a limited number of studies have focused on the impact of extreme weather events on N2O fluxes from cropland. This present study integrated field observations and model simulations to explore the responses of N2O fluxes to extreme weather events in typical rice and wheat rotation croplands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The findings revealed that the studied rice-wheat rotation cropland exhibited a net source of N2O over the three-year monitoring period, with annual cumulative N2O emissions ranging from 190.4 to 261.8 mg N m-2. N2O emissions during the rice and wheat growing seasons accounted for 29% and 71% of the total yearly emissions, respectively. Extreme heat events led to a 23% to 32% increase in observed N2O emissions from cropland. Observed N2O emissions from irrigated rice fields during extreme precipitation events were 45% lower than those during extreme drought events. In contrast, extreme precipitation events raised observed N2O emissions from rain-fed wheat fields by 36% compared to the multi-year average, while extreme drought events reduced N2O emissions from wheat fields by 20%. Regional simulations indicated that annual cumulative N2O emissions from croplands in the MLRYR are projected to increase from 207.8 mg N m-2 under current climate to 303.4 mg N m-2 in the future. Given the episodic nature and uncertainties associated with N2O emissions from cropland, further validation is necessary for utilizing the model to explore the effects of extreme weather events on N2O in cropland ecosystems.

Post-responses of intertidal bivalves to recurrent heatwaves.

Heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer and more frequent, threatening the survival of intertidal bivalves and devastating their ecosystems. Yet, substantially overlooked are heatwave-induced post-responses, which are important to assess cascading consequences. Here, we investigated responses of intertidal bivalves, Ruditapes philippinarum, to recurrent heatwaves. Physiological and gene expression analyses demonstrated that the mantle tissue of R. philippinarum did not sensitively respond to heatwaves, but revealed post-responses under recovery scenarios. Of 20 genes related to essential physiology and fitness, 18 were down-regulated during the 1st recovery period, but following repeated exposure, 13 genes were up-regulated, in line with significantly increased activities of energy-metabolizing enzymes, and antioxidant and nonspecific enzymes. The down-regulation of genes involved in biomineralization, nevertheless, was observed under recovery scenarios, implying the trade-off between essential physiological and fitness-related functions. These findings pave the way for understanding the physiological plasticity of marine bivalves in response to intensifying heatwaves.

Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available about the association between tropical cyclones and dengue incidence. This study aimed to examine the effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and to explore the vulnerable populations in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: Weekly dengue case data, tropical cyclone and meteorological data during the tropical cyclones season (June to October) from 2015 to 2019 were collected for the study. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was conducted to quantify the association between tropical cyclones and dengue, controlling for meteorological factors, seasonality, and long-term trend. Proportion of dengue cases attributable to tropical cyclone exposure was calculated. The effect difference by sex and age groups was calculated to identify vulnerable populations. The tropical cyclones were classified into two levels to compare the effects of different grades of tropical cyclones on the dengue incidence. RESULTS: Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased number of dengue cases with the maximum risk ratio of 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.17-1.69) in lag 0 week and cumulative risk ratio of 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.28-3.56) in lag 0-4 weeks. The attributable fraction was 6.31% (95% empirical confidence interval 1.96-10.16%). Men and the elderly were more vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones than the others. The effects of typhoons were stronger than those of tropical storms among various subpopulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that tropical cyclones may increase the incidence of dengue within a 4-week lag in Guangzhou, China, and the effects were more pronounced in men and the elderly. Precautionary measures should be taken with a focus on the identified vulnerable populations to control the transmission of dengue associated with tropical cyclones.

Prenatal exposure to Hurricane Maria is associated with an altered infant nasal microbiome.

Background: Prenatal adverse exposures have been associated with increased risks of development of respiratory diseases in children. The infant nasal microbiome is an important mechanism and indicator. Objective: Our aim was to characterize and compare the nasal microbiome of infants who were in utero and exposed to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico during 2017 with that of infants who were conceived at least 5 months after the hurricane as controls. Methods: We recruited 63 vaginally born infants, 29 of whom were in the exposure group and 34 of whom were in the control group. Nasal swab samples were collected and analyzed by using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing at the community and taxon levels, respectively. Results: Infants in the exposure group were more likely to harbor a Staphylococcus-Streptococcus-dominant microbial community in their nose. The richness and diversity of the microbiome was significantly higher in the exposure group than in the control group. In the exposure group, the bacterial genera Rhodocista, Azospirillum, Massilia, Herbaspirillum, Aquabacterium, and Pseudomonas were enriched, whereas Corynebacterium and Ralstonia were depleted. Food insecurity due to Hurricane Maria was associated with an increase in Pseudomonas in the infant nasal microbiome. Conclusion: Infants who were exposed to Hurricane Maria during gestation had an altered nasal microbiome, with a higher prevalence of environmental bacteria. More research is needed to evaluate the long-term impacts of extreme weather events occurring in the prenatal stage on a child's nasal microbiome and respiratory health.

Impact of extreme weather on dengue fever infection in four Asian countries: A modelling analysis.

The rapid spread of dengue fever (DF) infection has posed severe threats to global health. Environmental factors, such as weather conditions, are believed to regulate DF spread. While previous research reported inconsistent change of DF risk with varying weather conditions, few of them evaluated the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection risk. This study aims to examine the short-term associations between extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, and DF infection risk in South and Southeast Asia. A total of 35 locations in Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand were included, and weekly DF data, as well as the daily meteorological data from 2012 to 2020 were collected. A two-stage meta-analysis was used to estimate the overall effect of extreme weather conditions on the DF infection risk. Location-specific associations were obtained by the distributed lag nonlinear models. The DF infection risk appeared to increase within 1-3 weeks after extremely high temperature (e.g. lag week 2: RR = 1.074, 95 % CI: 1.022-1.129, p = 0.005). Compared with no rainfall, extreme rainfall was associated with a declined DF risk (RR = 0.748, 95 % CI: 0.620-0.903, p = 0.003), and most of the impact was across 0-3 weeks lag. In addition, the DF risk was found to be associated with more intensive extreme weathers (e.g. seven extreme rainfall days per week: RR = 0.338, 95 % CI: 0.120-0.947, p = 0.039). This study provides more evidence in support of the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection and suggests better preparation of DF control measures according to climate change.

Enabling forecasts of environmental exposure to chemicals in European agriculture under global change.

European agricultural development in the 21st century will be affected by a host of global changes, including climate change, changes in agricultural technologies and practices, and a shift towards a circular economy. The type and quantity of chemicals used, emitted, and cycled through agricultural systems in Europe will change, driven by shifts in the use patterns of pesticides, veterinary pharmaceuticals, reclaimed wastewater used for irrigation, and biosolids. Climate change will also impact the chemical persistence, fate, and transport processes that dictate environmental exposure. Here, we review the literature to identify research that will enable scenario-based forecasting of environmental exposures to organic chemicals in European agriculture under global change. Enabling exposure forecasts requires understanding current and possible future 1.) emissions, 2.) persistence and transformation, and 3.) fate and transport of agricultural chemicals. We discuss current knowledge in these three areas, the impact global change drivers may have on them, and we identify knowledge and data gaps that must be overcome to enable predictive scenario-based forecasts of environmental exposure under global change. Key research gaps identified are: improved understanding of relationships between global change and chemical emissions in agricultural settings; better understanding of environment-microbe interactions in the context of chemical degradation under future conditions; and better methods for downscaling climate change-driven intense precipitation events for chemical fate and transport modelling. We introduce a set of narrative Agricultural Chemical Exposure (ACE) scenarios - augmenting the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - as a framework for forecasting chemical exposure in European agriculture. The proposed ACE scenarios cover a plausible range of optimistic to pessimistic 21st century development pathways. Filling the knowledge and data gaps identified within this study and using the ACE scenario approach for chemical exposure forecasting will support stakeholder planning and regulatory intervention strategies to ensure European agricultural practices develop in a sustainable manner.

Mixed methods study design, pre-analysis plan, process evaluation and baseline results of trailbridges in rural Rwanda.

We present a study design, pre-analysis plan, process evaluation and baseline results designed to establish the impact of trailbridges on health, education, agricultural and economic outcomes of households in rural Rwanda. This intervention and study is being implemented in communities that face barriers to socioeconomic development through periodic isolation caused by flooding. We describe a mixed methods approach to measure the impacts of these trailbridges on outcomes at the village level. The study is anchored on a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial (RCT) implemented in 147 sites: 97 phased-in intervention sites and 50 long-term control sites. These sites are being monitored in four annual waves comprising of a baseline period and three subsequent follow-up waves. We will supplement the RCT with three sub-studies. First, we are investigating the role of weather events and streamflow variability on temporal and spatial bridge use patterns among intervention sites. We will then find the relationship between the weather events, streamflow and bridge use from motion-activated cameras installed in intervention sites. Secondly, we are following 42 markets serving study sites to investigate the impact of the trailbridges on the market prices of key goods including crops, livestock and agricultural inputs. Lastly, we are following 30 villages that are more distant from the river crossings to determine the spatial extent of the trailbridge impacts. Our study will advance knowledge by generating new data on the impact of rural infrastructure and providing the opportunity to explore a range of outcomes for future evaluation of infrastructure in low- and middle-income countries. We will enable an outcomes-based funding model that ties implementer payments to demonstrated positive impacts of these trailbridges. Furthermore, we will identify cost-effective, easily assessed measures that are highly correlated to the economic and health benefits of the intervention. These measures may then be used by a portfolio of interventions across multiple geographies without always requiring complex trials.