Mathematical Modeling of Mating Probability and Fertile Egg Production in Helminth Parasites.

In this work, we obtained a general formulation for the mating probability and fertile egg production in helminth parasites, focusing on the reproductive behavior of polygamous parasites and its implications for transmission dynamics. By exploring various reproductive variables in parasites with density-dependent fecundity, such as helminth parasites, we departed from the traditional assumptions of Poisson and negative binomial distributions to adopt an arbitrary distribution model. Our analysis considered critical factors such as mating probability, fertile egg production, and the distribution of female and male parasites among hosts, whether they are distributed together or separately. We show that the distribution of parasites within hosts significantly influences transmission dynamics, with implications for parasite persistence and, therefore, with implications in parasite control. Using statistical models and empirical data from Monte Carlo simulations, we provide insights into the complex interplay of reproductive variables in helminth parasites, enhancing our understanding of parasite dynamics and the transmission of parasitic diseases.

Optimizing Corn Crop Protection: The First Sampling Plan for Controlling Dalbulus maidis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae).

Corn (Zea mays) is the most widely planted crop in the world. Dalbulus maidis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is currently a primary corn pest. The starting point for the development of pest control decision-making systems is the determination of a conventional sampling plan. Therefore, this study aimed to determine a practical conventional sampling plan for D. maidis in corn crops. Insect density was evaluated in 28 commercial fields. Subsequently, D. maidis densities were sampled from fields ranging from 1 to 100 ha. Insect density conformed to a negative binomial distribution in 89.29% of the fields. The insect densities determined using the sampling plan had a low error rate (up to 15%). Sampling time and costs ranged from 2.06 to 39.45 min/ha and 0.09 to 1.81 USD/ha for fields of 1-100 ha, respectively. These results provide the first precise and representative conventional sampling plan for scouting D. maidis adults grown in corn fields. Therefore, the conventional sampling plan for D. maidis determined in this study is practical and can be incorporated into integrated pest management programs for corn crops owing to its representativeness, precision, speed, and low cost.

Modeling the spatial patterns of antenatal care utilization in Nigeria with inference based on Pólya-Gamma mixtures.

Despite the vast advantages of making antenatal care visits, the service utilization among pregnant women in Nigeria is suboptimal. A five-year monitoring estimate indicated that about 24% of the women who had live births made no visit. The non-utilization induced excessive zeroes in the outcome of interest. Thus, this study adopted a zero-inflated negative binomial model within a Bayesian framework to identify the spatial pattern and the key factors hindering antenatal care utilization in Nigeria. We overcome the intractability associated with posterior inference by adopting a Pólya-Gamma data-augmentation technique to facilitate inference. The Gibbs sampling algorithm was used to draw samples from the joint posterior distribution. Results revealed that type of place of residence, maternal level of education, access to mass media, household work index, and woman's working status have significant effects on the use of antenatal care services. Findings identified substantial state-level spatial disparity in antenatal care utilization across the country. Cost-effective techniques to achieve an acceptable frequency of utilization include the creation of a community-specific awareness to emphasize the importance and benefits of the appropriate utilization. Special consideration should be given to older pregnant women, women in poor antenatal utilization states, and women residing in poor road network regions.

Characterization of larval habitats of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) darlingi and associated species in malaria areas in western Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND Anopheles darlingi is the most efficient vector of malaria parasites in the Neotropics. Nevertheless, the specificities of its larval habitats are still poorly known. OBJECTIVES Characterize permanent larval habitats, and population dynamics of An. darlingi and other potential vectors in relation to climate, physicochemical variables, insect fauna and malaria cases. METHODS A 14-month longitudinal study was conducted in Porto Velho, Rondônia, western Brazilian Amazon. Monthly, 21 permanent water bodies were sampled. Immature anophelines and associated fauna were collected, physicochemical characteristics, and climate variables were recorded and analyzed. FINDINGS Five types of habitats were identified: lagoon, stream, stream combined with lagoon, stream combined with dam, and fishpond. A total of 60,927 anophelines were collected. The most abundant species in all habitats were Anopheles braziliensis and An. darlingi. The highest density was found in the lagoon, while streams had the highest species richness. Abundance was higher during the transition period wet-dry season. There was a lag of respectively four and five months between the peak of rainfall and the Madeira River level and the highest abundance of An. darlingi larvae, which were positively correlated with habitats partially shaded, pH close to neutrality, increase dissolved oxygen and sulphates. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The present study provides data on key factors defining permanent larval habitats for the surveillance of An. darlingi and other potential vectors as well as a log-linear Negative Binomial model based on immature mosquito abundance and climate variables to predict the increase in the number of malaria cases.

Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial de Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) para costa rochosa entremarés em Antofagasta (23 ° S, Chile)

The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.(AU)

As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.(AU)

Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial de Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) para costa rochosa entremarés em Antofagasta (23 ° S, Chile)

Abstract The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.

Resumo As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.

Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial de Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) para costa rochosa entremarés em Antofagasta (23 ° S, Chile)

The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.

As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.

Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile)

Abstract The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.

Resumo As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.

Historical trends in mortality from "older" vaccine-preventable diseases, Colombia: implications for elimination and control.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the trends in mortality from eight vaccine-preventable diseases in Colombia in the last 40 years and their relationship with vaccination coverage. STUDY DESIGN: It is a population-based descriptive study. METHODS: The frequencies of deaths by decade, disease, sex, and the specific mortality rates by age group were calculated. Using a negative binomial regression model, the 10-year changes in mortality and their relationship with vaccination coverage were determined. RESULTS: The number of deaths and the adjusted rates decreased since 1989 in all diseases (incidence rate ratio <1 when compared with the 1979-1988 decade). Vaccination coverage below 90% is associated with an increase in mortality from diphtheria, measles, mumps, neonatal tetanus, and pertussis. CONCLUSION: Historical changes in mortality support the benefits of vaccination, but new efforts are required to sustain the elimination of diseases.

Modeling Overdispersed Dengue Data via Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression Model: A Case Study in the City of Campo Grande, MS, Brazil.

Dengue fever is a tropical disease transmitted mainly by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito that affects millions of people every year. As there is still no safe and effective vaccine, currently the best way to prevent the disease is to control the proliferation of the transmitting mosquito. Since the proliferation and life cycle of the mosquito depend on environmental variables such as temperature and water availability, among others, statistical models are needed to understand the existing relationships between environmental variables and the recorded number of dengue cases and predict the number of cases for some future time interval. This prediction is of paramount importance for the establishment of control policies. In general, dengue-fever datasets contain the number of cases recorded periodically (in days, weeks, months or years). Since many dengue-fever datasets tend to be of the overdispersed, long-tail type, some common models like the Poisson regression model or negative binomial regression model are not adequate to model it. For this reason, in this paper we propose modeling a dengue-fever dataset by using a Poisson-inverse-Gaussian regression model. The main advantage of this model is that it adequately models overdispersed long-tailed data because it has a wider skewness range than the negative binomial distribution. We illustrate the application of this model in a real dataset and compare its performance to that of a negative binomial regression model.

Distribution of clones among hosts for the lizard malaria parasite Plasmodium mexicanum.

BACKGROUND: Malaria parasites reproduce asexually, leading to the production of large numbers of genetically identical parasites, here termed a clonal line or clone. Infected hosts may harbor one or more clones, and the number of clones in a host is termed multiplicity of infection (MOI). Understanding the distribution of parasite clones among hosts can shed light on the processes shaping this distribution and is important for modeling MOI. Here, I determine whether the distribution of clones of the lizard malaria parasite Plasmodium mexicanum differ significantly from statistical distributions commonly used to model MOI and logical extensions of these models. METHODS: The number of clones per infection was assessed using four microsatellite loci with the maximum number of alleles at any one locus used as a simple estimate of MOI for each infection. I fit statistical models (Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated models) to data from four individual sites to determine a best fit model. I also simulated the number of alleles per locus using an unbiased estimate of MOI to determine whether the simple (but potentially biased) method I used to estimate MOI influenced model fit. RESULTS: The distribution of clones among hosts at individual sites differed significantly from traditional Poisson and negative binomial distributions, but not from zero-inflated modifications of these distributions. A consistent excess of two-clone infections and shortage of one-clone infections relative to all fit distributions was also observed. Any bias introduced by the simple method for estimating of MOI did not appear to qualitatively alter the results. CONCLUSIONS: The statistical distributions used to model MOI are typically zero-truncated; truncating the Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson yield the same distribution, so the reasonable fit of the zero-inflated Poisson to the data suggests that the use of the zero-truncated Poisson in modeling is adequate. The improved fit of zero-inflated distributions relative to standard distributions may suggest that only a portion of the host population is located in areas suitable for transmission even at small sites (<1 ha). Collective transmission of clones and premunition may also contribute to deviations from standard distributions.

Sand Fly Fauna, Spatial Distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae), and Climate Factors in Dourados, Brazil.

Studies of the geographic distribution of sand flies and the factors associated with their occurrence are necessary to understand the risk of leishmaniasis transmission. The objective of this study was to characterize the sand fly fauna, particularly the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva), and correlate these with climate factors in the Dourados municipality, Brazil. The collection of sand flies was carried out with CDC Light Traps over two periods: at six sites for three consecutive nights each month from August 2012 to July 2013; and at four other sites for two consecutive nights each month from April 2017 to February 2018. We collected 591 sand flies in the first period and 121 in the second period for a total of 712 sand flies; 697 of the total collected were Lu. longipalpis. The minimum and maximum sand fly infestation rate (sites with vector presence) was 11.1% and 83.33% in the first period, and 0% and 50.0% in the second period. No sand flies with Leishmania were identified via PCR. Lu. longipalpis presented an aggregate disposition with excellent adjustment. Rainfall and relative humidity were the abiotic factors that influenced the vector infestation level. The aggregate distribution for this species was predicted by the environmental factors that favor the proliferation of Lu. longipalpis. The results of this study should assist in devising measures to control sand flies in Dourados, Brazil.

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models.

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.

Predicting Rice Stem Stink Bug Population Dynamics Based on GAMLSS Models.

The rice stem stink bug, Tibraca limbativentris Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is one of the most harmful insects for Brazilian rice fields. Aiming to define the most appropriate time and place for pest management measures in commercial paddy fields, we adjusted regression models (Poisson, Zero Inflated Poisson, reparametrized Zero Inflated Poisson, Negative Binomial and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial) for modeling the population variation of T. limbativentris along the phenological cycle of the flooded rice cultivation. We hypothesize that the rice stem stink bug population's size is influenced by the rice cycle (time) and geographical positions within the crop. It was possible to predict the occurrence of the rice stem stink bug in the commercial flooded rice crop. The population of the rice stem stink bug increased significantly with the time or phenological evolution of rice. Our results indicated that the start of T. limbativentris monitoring should occur up to 45 d After Plant Emergence (DAE), from the regions along the edges of the rice paddies, which are the points of entry and higher concentration of the insect. In addition, 45 and 60 DAE were considered the crucial times for T. limbativentris control decision making in flooded rice paddies.

Spatial distribution in marine invertebrates in rocky shore of Araucania Region (38° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial em invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía (38° S, Chile)

Abstract The rocky shores in Chile have a wide invertebrate species diversity, that include species with marked abundances in determined regions. The aim of the present study is to analyse the spatial distribution pattern in different marine invertebrate species in rocky shore of Araucania region, considering if these species have random, uniform or associated patterns, and extrapolate if these patterns have Poisson, binomial or negative binomial distribution respectively. The results revealed the presence mainly of gastropods molluscs that would graze on benthic algae, these species have mainly aggregated pattern that has a robust negative binomial distribution pattern. The obtained results agree with observations for marine benthic fauna that mentioned the presence of aggregated pattern, has negative binomial distribution. Other ecological topics about spatial distribution were discussed.

Resumo As costas rochosas no Chile têm uma ampla diversidade de espécies de invertebrados, que incluem espécies com abundância marcada em determinadas regiões. O objetivo do presente estudo é analisar o padrão de distribuição espacial em diferentes espécies de invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía, considerando se essas espécies possuem padrões aleatórios, uniformes ou associados, e extrapolar se esses padrões possuem distribuição binomial de Poisson, binomial ou negativa. respectivamente. Os resultados revelaram a presença principalmente de moluscos gastrópodes que pastam em algas bentônicas, estas espécies têm principalmente agregado padrão que tem um padrão robusto de distribuição binomial negativa, padrão agregado de grupos, e a fauna de água doce que apresenta distribuição binomial negativa. Outros tópicos ecológicos sobre distribuição espacial foram discutidos.

Non-random medicinal plants selection in the Kichwa community of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

The non-random selection of medicinal plants theory, which predicts taxonomical biases in ethnopharmacopeias, indirectly demonstrates that traditional medicinal systems are rational and based in part on the therapeutic efficacy of plants. This theory suggests that because members of a taxonomical group share similar characteristics, some groups will be over-utilized in pharmacopeias, while other groups bereft of therapeutic potential will be under-utilized medicinally. Empirical evidence fo this theory comes from studies that used data collected at the national level which may lead to the overestimation of medicinal plant list given that some parts of the country (e.g., protected areas) can be unavailable for medicinal plant collection. Similarly, because medicinal plant importance and knowledge can be gender-specific and depends on the degree of exposure of a community, failure to account for gender and community experience can limit our understanding of non-random selection of medicinal plants. In this study, we used the negative binomial model and an examination of studentized residuals to demonstrate that a Kichwa community in the Ecuadorian Amazon over-utilized different sets of medicinal plant families depending on the gender of the informants or the experience of the community. We showed that utilizing local data instead of nationwide data reveals new over-utilized families. Seven of the nine most over-utilized medicinal plant families we found were previously reported in different biogeographical regions. The other two families are novel reports. Overall, our study proposes a novel method to uncover the intracultural heterogeneity of traditional knowledge and people non-random selection of medicinal plants at the local level.

Influence analysis for the generalized Waring regression model.

In this paper, we consider a regression model under the generalized Waring distribution for modeling count data. We develop and implement local influence diagnostic techniques based on likelihood displacement. Also we develop case-deletion methods. The generalized Waring regression model is presented as a mixture of the Negative Binomial and the Beta II distributions, and it is compared to the Negative Binomial and Waring regression models. Estimation is performed by maximum likelihood function. The influence measures developed in this paper are applied to a Spanish football league data set. Empirical results show that the generalized Waring regression model performs better when compared to the Negative Binomial and Waring regression models. Technical details are presented in the Appendix.

Spatial distribution in marine invertebrates in rocky shore of Araucania Region (38° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial em invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía (38° S, Chile)

The rocky shores in Chile have a wide invertebrate species diversity, that include species with marked abundances in determined regions. The aim of the present study is to analyse the spatial distribution pattern in different marine invertebrate species in rocky shore of Araucania region, considering if these species have random, uniform or associated patterns, and extrapolate if these patterns have Poisson, binomial or negative binomial distribution respectively. The results revealed the presence mainly of gastropods molluscs that would graze on benthic algae, these species have mainly aggregated pattern that has a robust negative binomial distribution pattern. The obtained results agree with observations for marine benthic fauna that mentioned the presence of aggregated pattern, has negative binomial distribution. Other ecological topics about spatial distribution were discussed.(AU)

As costas rochosas no Chile têm uma ampla diversidade de espécies de invertebrados, que incluem espécies com abundância marcada em determinadas regiões. O objetivo do presente estudo é analisar o padrão de distribuição espacial em diferentes espécies de invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía, considerando se essas espécies possuem padrões aleatórios, uniformes ou associados, e extrapolar se esses padrões possuem distribuição binomial de Poisson, binomial ou negativa. respectivamente. Os resultados revelaram a presença principalmente de moluscos gastrópodes que pastam em algas bentônicas, estas espécies têm principalmente agregado padrão que tem um padrão robusto de distribuição binomial negativa, padrão agregado de grupos, e a fauna de água doce que apresenta distribuição binomial negativa. Outros tópicos ecológicos sobre distribuição espacial foram discutidos.(AU)

Crimen y fútbol: caso del fútbol profesional colombiano (2010-2016) / Crime and football: case of Colombian professional football (2010-2016) / Crime e soccer: caso do soccer profissional Colombian (2010-2016)

Resumen Este trabajo investiga mediante la metodología de regresión binomial negativa de ceros inflados con efectos fijos la relación entre los partidos de fútbol de la liga profesional colombiana y el número de lesiones personales, hurtos y homicidios (en un intervalo de ocho horas) presentados en veinte (20) ciudades de Colombia durante los años 2010-2016. Los resultados no evidencian una relación sistemática entre los partidos de fútbol y los delitos mencionados (es decir, aumentos o disminuciones de los delitos en una ciudad por el hecho de ser sede de un partido de fútbol o ser la ciudad del equipo visitante). Lo que sí evidencian es que hay aumentos en las lesiones personales y hurtos a personas a medida que aumenta la asistencia al estadio. La asistencia no parece tener efecto sobre los homicidios. No obstante lo anterior, los aumentos de lesiones personales y hurtos a personas no parecen ser económicamente significativos para el periodo de ocho horas dentro del cual se jugó el partido ni a nivel agregado anual para las veinte ciudades.

Abstract This paper investigates throgh the methodology of negative zero inflated with effects binomial regression relationship between Colombian profesional football games league and the number of personal injury, theft and homicide (in an interval of eight hours) presented in twenty (20) cities in Colombia during the years 2010 - 2016. The results do not show a systematic relationship between football matches and the aforementioned crimes (that means, increase or decrease in crimes in a city due to the fact of hosting a football match or being the city of the visiting team). What they do show, is that there are increases in personal injuries and theft of people as stadium attendane increases. Notwithstanding the foregoing, increases in personal injury and theft form people do not appear to be economically significant for the eigth - hour period within which the game was played nor annual at an aggregate level for the twenty cities.

Resumo Este trabalho investiga mediante a metodologia de regressão binomial negativa de zeros inflacionados com efeitos fixos a relação entre os partidos de futebol da liga profissional colombiana e o número de lesões coporais, furtos e homicídios (num intervalo de oito horas) apresentados em vinte (20) cidades da Colômbia durante os anos 2010- 2016. Los resultados no evidenciam uma relação sistemática entre os partidos de futebol e os delitos mencionados (isto é, aumentos ou diminuições dos delitos numa cidade pelo fato de ser sede de uma partida de futebol ou ser a cidade da equipe visitante). O que sim evidenciam é que há aumentos nas lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas a medida que aumenta a assistência ao estádio. A assistência no pareceter efeito sobre os homicídios. Não obstante o que precede, os aumentos de lesões corporais e furtos a pessoas não parecem ser económicamente significativos para o período de oito horas dentro do qual se jogou a partida nem a nível agregado anual para as vinte cidades.

Practical Sampling Plan for Liriomyza huidobrensis (Diptera: Agromyzidae) in Tomato Crops.

The pea leafminer, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard), is an important pest of tomato crops worldwide. Conventional sampling plans are the starting point for the development of pest control decision-making. The present study aimed to develop a conventional sampling plan for L. huidobrensis during the vegetative and reproductive stages of tomato (Solanum Lycopersicum L.). The best sampling unit for vegetative and reproductive stages of tomato crops was determined. The frequency distributions of L. huidobrensis densities in tomato crops were assessed, and the ideal number of samples to constitute the sampling plan was determined. The basal leaf of the middle section of the plant canopy was the best plant part for sampling. Pea leafminer densities were fitted to the negative binomial distribution with a common aggregation parameter (Kcommon = 0.7289) that represents all tomato fields. The sampling plan consists of 73 samples per field, irrespective of field size (1, 5, or 10 ha). Evaluations using this sampling plan were performed in 47 min, 1 h 9 min, and 1 h 25 min at a cost of US$1.74, US$2.54, and US$3.12 per sampling in fields of 1, 5, and 10 ha, respectively. The sampling plan developed in this study may lead to more well-informed decision-making for controlling L. huidobrensis in tomato fields up to 10 ha. Additionally, it is inexpensive (up to US$3.12 per sampling area), fast (up to 1 h 25 min per sampling area), and practical (it can be used in tomato crops at the vegetative and reproductive stages).