The Association Between Psoriasis and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated disease affecting the skin, nails, and/or joints. It is associated with systemic inflammation and may also be linked to an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The objectives of this study were to determine the overall risk of ASCVD in patients with psoriasis and to evaluate the risk according to ASCVD type and the severity of psoriasis. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting the association between psoriasis and one or more of the clinical types of ASCVD. We searched Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE) via PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Scopus, Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE), and Google Scholar for relevant studies in the English language from the beginning of their records to July 2023. Study selection and data extraction were conducted by four independent reviewers. A total of 21 observational studies (three cross-sectional, one case-control, and 17 cohort) were included in this review, representing a total of 778,049 patients with psoriasis and 16,881,765 control subjects without psoriasis. The included studies had varying degrees of covariate adjustment, and thus, their findings may have been subject to residual confounding. All the meta-analyses used the adjusted effect sizes and were based on the random-effects model. However, the cohort studies were analysed separately from the non-cohort studies (the case-control and cross-sectional studies). There was a significant association between psoriasis and ASCVD (cohort studies: hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14 to 1.28; I2 = 63%; p < 0.001; non-cohort studies: odds ratio (OR), 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.92; I2 = 31%; p = 0.23). Psoriasis was also significantly associated with myocardial infarction (cohort studies: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.31; I2 = 60%; p < 0.001; non-cohort studies: OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.15; I2 = 74%; p = 0.05), coronary artery disease (cohort studies: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.28; I2 = 67%; p < 0.001; non-cohort studies: OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.92; I2 = 31%; p = 0.23), aortic aneurysm (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.02; I2 = 67%; p = 0.08) but not with ischaemic stroke (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.36; I2 = 44%; p = 0.17). Pooled analysis in terms of the severity of psoriasis showed that both mild (cohort studies: HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.26; I2 = 74%; p < 0.001; non-cohort studies: OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.25 to 1.90; I2 = 0%; p = 0.50) and severe (cohort studies: HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.65; I2 = 65%; p < 0.001; non-cohort studies: OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.12; I2 = 25%; p = 0.26) psoriasis were significantly associated with ASCVD. Psoriasis (including mild and severe disease) is associated with an increased risk of ASCVD, including coronary artery disease (CAD) and aortic aneurysm (AA). ASCVD risk assessment and prevention should be prioritised in all adult psoriasis patients. Future observational studies investigating the association between psoriasis and ASCVD should conduct a more comprehensive adjustment of covariates.

Withdrawal of Inhaled Corticosteroids from Patients with COPD; Effect on Exacerbation Frequency and Lung Function: A Systematic Review.

Background: Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy has been demonstrated to reduce the risk of COPD exacerbations. It should only be prescribed to COPD patients who are not adequately controlled by dual long-acting bronchodilator therapy and who have ≥2 exacerbations per year and a blood eosinophil count ≥300cells/µL. ICS therapy is widely prescribed outside guidelines to COPD patients, making ICS withdrawal an important consideration. This systematic review aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the effect of ICS withdrawal on exacerbation frequency, change in lung function (FEV1) and to determine the proportion of COPD patients who resume ICS therapy following withdrawal. Methods: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies which compared ICS withdrawal with ICS continuation treatment were included. Cochrane Central, Web of Science, CINHAL, Embase and OVID Medline were searched. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB2 tool and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Quality assessment of RCTs was conducted using GRADE. Meta-analysis of post-hoc analyses of RCTs of ICS withdrawal, stratified by blood eosinophil count (BEC), was undertaken. Results: Ten RCTs (6642 patients randomised) and 6 observational studies (160,029 patients) were included in the results. When ICS was withdrawn and long-acting bronchodilator therapy was maintained, there was no consistent difference in exacerbation frequency or lung function change between the ICS withdrawal and continuation trial arms. The evidence for these effects was of moderate quality. There was insufficient evidence to draw a firm conclusion on the proportion of patients who resumed ICS therapy following withdrawal (estimated range 12-93% of the participants). Discussion: Withdrawal of ICS therapy from patients with COPD is safe and feasible but should be accompanied by maintenance of bronchodilation therapy for optimal outcomes.

The role of sacubitril/valsartan in abnormal renal function patients combined with heart failure: a meta-analysis and systematic analysis.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of sacubitril/valsartan in abnormal renal function (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2) patients combined with heart failure based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. METHODS: The Embase, PubMed and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant studies from inception to December 2023. Dichotomous variables were described as event counts with the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) values. Continuous variables were expressed as mean standard deviation (SD) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 6 RCTs and 8 observational studies were included, involving 17335 eGFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m2 patients combined with heart failure. In terms of efficacy, we analyzed the incidence of cardiovascular events and found that sacubitril/valsartan significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 patients with heart failure (OR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.54-0.78). Moreover, sacubitril/valsartan prevented the serum creatinine elevation (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68-0.95), the eGFR decline (OR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73-0.95) and the development of end-stage renal disease in this population (OR:0.73, 95%CI:0.60-0.89). As for safety outcomes, we did not find that the rate of hyperkalemia (OR:1.31, 95%CI:0.79-2.17) and hypotension (OR:1.57, 95%CI:0.94-2.62) were increased in sacubitril/valsartan group among CKD stages 3-5 patients with heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis proves that sacubitril/valsartan has a favorable effect on cardiac function without obvious risk of adverse events in abnormal renal function patients combined with heart failure, indicating that sacubitril/valsartan has the potential to become perspective treatment for these patients.

Win Statistics in Observational Cancer Research: Integrating Clinical and Quality-of-Life Outcomes.

Background: Quality-of-life metrics are increasingly important for oncological patients alongside traditional endpoints like mortality and disease progression. Statistical tools such as Win Ratio, Win Odds, and Net Benefit prioritize clinically significant outcomes using composite endpoints. In randomized trials, Win Statistics provide fair comparisons between treatment and control groups. However, their use in observational studies is complicated by confounding variables. Propensity score (PS) matching mitigates confounding variables but may reduce the sample size, affecting the power of win statistics analyses. Alternatively, PS matching can stratify samples, preserving the sample size. This study aims to assess the long-term impact of these methods on decision making, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. Methods: A motivating example involves a cohort of patients from the ReSARCh observational study (2016-2021) with locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the rectum, situated up to 12 cm from the anal verge. These patients underwent either a watch-and-wait approach (WW) or trans-anal local excision (LE). Win statistics compared the effects of WW and LE on a composite outcome (overall survival, recurrence, presence of ostomy, and rectum excision). For matched win statistics, we used robust inference techniques proposed by Matsouaka et al. (2022), and for stratified win statistics, we applied the method proposed by Dong et al. (2018). A simulation study assessed the coverage probability of matched and stratified win statistics in balanced and unbalanced groups, calculating how often the confidence intervals included the true values of WR, NB, and WO across 1000 simulations. Results: The results suggest a better efficacy of the LE approach when considering efficacy outcomes alone (WR: 0.47 (0.01 to 1.14); NB: -0.16 (-0.34 to 0.02); and WO: 0.73 (0.5 to 1.05)). However, when QoL outcomes are included in the analyses, the estimates are closer to 1 (WR: 0.87 (0.06 to 2.06); WO: 0.93 (0.61 to 1.4)) and to 0 (NB: -0.04 (-0.25 to 0.17)), indicating a negative impact of the treatment effect of LE regarding the presence of ostomy and the excision of the rectum. Moreover, based on the simulation study, our findings underscore the superior performance of matched compared to stratified win statistics in terms of coverage probability (matched WR: 97% vs. stratified WR: 33.3% in a high-imbalance setting; matched WR: 98% vs. stratified WR: 34.4% in a medium-imbalance setting; and matched WR: 99.2% vs. stratified WR: 37.4% in a low-imbalance setting). Conclusions: In conclusion, our study sheds light on the interpretation of the results of win statistics in terms of statistical significance, providing insights into the application of pairwise comparison in observational settings, promoting its use to improve outcomes for cancer patients.

Ultrasound of the forefeet besides the hands in patients at risk for rheumatoid arthritis: is it worth the effort? A longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Ultrasound (US) can detect subclinical joint-inflammation in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA), which is valuable as predictor for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development. In most research protocols both hands and forefeet are scanned, but it is unclear if US of the forefeet has additional value for predicting RA, especially since synovial hypertrophy in MTP-joints of healthy individuals is also common. To explore the possibility to omit scanning of the forefeet we determined if US of the forefeet is of additional predictive value for RA-development in CSA patients. METHODS: CSA patients of two independent cohorts underwent US of the hands and forefeet. We analyzed the association between RA-development and US-positivity for the full US-protocol, the full US-protocol with correction for Gray Scale(GS)-findings in the forefeet of healthy and the protocol without-forefeet. RESULTS: In total, 298 CSA patients were studied. In patients with a positive US, subclinical joint-inflammation was mostly present in the hands (90-86%). Only 10-14% of patients had subclinical joint-inflammation solely in the forefeet. US-positivity was associated with inflammatory arthritis development in both cohorts, with HRs 2.6(95%CI 0.9-7.5) and 3.1(95%CI 1.5-6.4) for the full protocol, 3.1(95%CI 1.3-7.7) and 2.7(95%CI 1.3-5.4) for the full US-protocol with correction, and 3.1(95%CI 1.4-6.9) and 2.8(95%CI 1.4-5.6) without the forefeet. AUROCs were equal across both cohorts. CONCLUSION: The forefeet can be omitted when US is used for the prediction of RA-development in CSA patients. This is due to the finding that subclinical joint-inflammation in the forefeet without concomitant inflammation in the hands is infrequent.

What question are we trying to answer? Embracing causal inference.

This study summarizes a presentation at the symposium for the Calvin Schwabe Award for Lifetime Achievement in Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, which was awarded to the first author. As epidemiologists, we are taught that "correlation does not imply causation." While true, identifying causes is a key objective for much of the research that we conduct. There is empirical evidence that veterinary epidemiologists are conducting observational research with the intent to identify causes; many studies include control for confounding variables, and causal language is often used when interpreting study results. Frameworks for studying causes include the articulation of specific hypotheses to be tested, approaches for the selection of variables, methods for statistical estimation of the relationship between the exposure and the outcome, and interpretation of that relationship as causal. When comparing observational studies in veterinary populations to those conducted in human populations, the application of each of these steps differs substantially. The a priori identification of exposure-outcome pairs of interest are less common in observational studies in the veterinary literature compared to the human literature, and prior knowledge is used to select confounding variables in most observational studies in human populations, whereas data-driven approaches are the norm in veterinary populations. The consequences of not having a defined exposure-outcome hypotheses of interest and using data-driven analytical approaches include an increased probability of biased results and poor replicability of results. A discussion by the community of researchers on current approaches to studying causes in observational studies in veterinary populations is warranted.

Causal inference in the absence of positivity: The role of overlap weights.

How to analyze data when there is violation of the positivity assumption? Several possible solutions exist in the literature. In this paper, we consider propensity score (PS) methods that are commonly used in observational studies to assess causal treatment effects in the context where the positivity assumption is violated. We focus on and examine four specific alternative solutions to the inverse probability weighting (IPW) trimming and truncation: matching weight (MW), Shannon's entropy weight (EW), overlap weight (OW), and beta weight (BW) estimators. We first specify their target population, the population of patients for whom clinical equipoise, that is, where we have sufficient PS overlap. Then, we establish the nexus among the different corresponding weights (and estimators); this allows us to highlight the shared properties and theoretical implications of these estimators. Finally, we introduce their augmented estimators that take advantage of estimating both the propensity score and outcome regression models to enhance the treatment effect estimators in terms of bias and efficiency. We also elucidate the role of the OW estimator as the flagship of all these methods that target the overlap population. Our analytic results demonstrate that OW, MW, and EW are preferable to IPW and some cases of BW when there is a moderate or extreme (stochastic or structural) violation of the positivity assumption. We then evaluate, compare, and confirm the finite-sample performance of the aforementioned estimators via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate these methods using two real-world data examples marked by violations of the positivity assumption.

Prevalence and Characteristics of Adults with Difficult-to-Treat Rheumatoid Arthritis in a Large Patient Registry.

OBJECTIVES: An estimated 5-20% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) fail multiple treatments and are considered "difficult-to-treat" (D2T), posing a substantial clinical challenge for rheumatologists. A European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) task force proposed a definition of D2T-RA in 2021. We applied EULAR's D2T definition in a cohort of patients with established RA to assess prevalence and we compared clinical characteristics of participants with D2T-RA with matched comparisons. METHODS: Data from the longitudinal Brigham and Women's Hospital Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS) registry was used. Participants were classified as D2T if they met EULAR's definition. A comparison group of non-D2T RA patients were matched 2:1 to every D2T patient, and differences in characteristics were evaluated in descriptive analyses. Prevalence rates of D2T were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We estimated the prevalence of D2T-RA to be 14.4 (95% CI: 12.8-16.3 per 100 persons) among 1,581 participants with RA, and 22.3 (95% CI: 19.9-25.0 per 100 persons) among 1,021 who were biologic/targeted synthetic DMARD experienced. We observed several differences in demographics, comorbidities, and RA disease activity between D2T-RA and non-D2T RA comparisons. Varying EULAR sub-criteria among all participants in BRASS resulted in a range of D2T-RA prevalence rates, from 0.6-17.5 per 100 persons. CONCLUSION: EULAR's proposed definition of D2T-RA identifies patients with RA who have not achieved treatment targets. Future research should explore heterogeneity in these patients and evaluate outcomes to inform the design of future studies aimed at developing more effective RA management protocols.

Which advanced treatment should be used following the failure of a first-line anti-TNF in patients with rheumatoid arthritis? 15 years of evidence from the Quebec registry RHUMADATA.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, advanced therapies (AT) have revolutionized the treatment of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Randomized control trials as well as observational studies together with medication availability often determine second-line choices after the failure of first Tumor Necrosis Factor inhibitors (TNFi). This led to the observation that specific sequences provide better long-term effectiveness. We investigated which alternative medication offers the best long-term sustainability following the first TNFi failure in RA. METHODS: Data were extracted from RHUMADATA from January2007. Patients were followed until treatment discontinuation, loss to follow-up, or November 25, 2022. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to compare discontinuation between groups. Missing data were imputed, and propensity scores were computed to reduce potential attribution bias. Complete, unadjusted, and propensity score-adjusted imputed data analyses were produced. RESULTS: 611 patients (320 treated with a TNFi and 291 treated with molecules having another mechanism of action (OMA)) were included. The mean age at diagnosis was 44.5 and 43.9 years, respectively. The median retention was 2.84 and 4.48 years for TNFi and OMAs groups. Using multivariable analysis, the discontinuation rate of the OMA group was significantly lower than TNFi (adjHR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.44-0.94). This remained true for the PS-adjusted MI Cox models. In a stratified analysis, rituximab (adjHR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.18-0.84) had better retention than TNFi after adjusting for patient characteristics. CONCLUSION: Switching to an OMA, especially rituximab, in patients with failure to a first TNFi appears to be the best strategy as a second line of therapy.

G-formula for observational studies under stratified interference, with application to bed net use on malaria.

Assessing population-level effects of vaccines and other infectious disease prevention measures is important to the field of public health. In infectious disease studies, one person's treatment may affect another individual's outcome, that is, there may be interference between units. For example, the use of bed nets to prevent malaria by one individual may have an indirect effect on other individuals living in close proximity. In some settings, individuals may form groups or clusters where interference only occurs within groups, that is, there is partial interference. Inverse probability weighted estimators have previously been developed for observational studies with partial interference. Unfortunately, these estimators are not well suited for studies with large clusters. Therefore, in this paper, the parametric g-formula is extended to allow for partial interference. G-formula estimators are proposed for overall effects, effects when treated, and effects when untreated. The proposed estimators can accommodate large clusters and do not suffer from the g-null paradox that may occur in the absence of interference. The large sample properties of the proposed estimators are derived assuming no unmeasured confounders and that the partial interference takes a particular form (referred to as 'weak stratified interference'). Simulation studies are presented demonstrating the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators. The Demographic and Health Survey from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is then analyzed using the proposed g-formula estimators to assess the effects of bed net use on malaria.

Emulation of randomized trials of direct oral anticoagulants with claims data and implications for new Factor XI inhibitors.

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) revolutionized the management of thromboembolic disorders. Clinical care may be further improved as Factor XIs undergo large-scale outcome trials. What role can non-randomized database studies play in expediting understanding of these drugs in clinical practice? The RCT-DUPLICATIVE Initiative emulated the design of eight DOAC randomized clinical trials (RCT) using non-randomized claims database studies. RCT study design parameters and measurements were closely emulated by the database studies and produced highly concordant results. The results of the single database study that did not meet all agreement metrics with the specific RCT it was emulating were aligned with a meta-analysis of six trials studying similar questions, suggesting the trial result was an outlier. Well-designed database studies using fit-for-purpose data came to the same conclusions as DOAC trials, illustrating how database studies could complement RCTs for Factor XI inhibitors-by accelerating insights in underrepresented populations, demonstrating effectiveness and safety in clinical practice, and testing broader indications.

Underuse of GLP-1 receptor agonists in the management of type 2 diabetes despite a favorable benefit-safety profile.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and cardiovascular death. Cardiovascular protection is a key objective in T2DM. AREAS COVERED: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have proven their efficacy in reducing major cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with T2DM in placebo-controlled trials, a finding confirmed in observational studies compared with other glucose-lowering agents. Overall, GLP-1RAs have a good safety profile associated with a favorable benefit/risk ratio for the management of T2DM, even if their cost-effectiveness might be questionable. International guidelines recommend GLP-1RAs as preferred glucose-lowering agents in patients with ASCVD and as a valuable alternative in overweight/obese patients with T2DM. However, real-life studies worldwide revealed that only a minority of patients receive a GLP-1RA, despite a positive trend for increased prescriptions in recent years. Surprisingly, however, fewer patients with established ASCVD are treated with these cardioprotective antihyperglycemic agents versus patients without ASCVD. EXPERT OPINION: The reasons for GLP-1RA underuse in clinical practice are multiple. Multifaceted and coordinated interventions targeting all actors of the health-care system must be implemented to stimulate the adoption of GLP-1RAs as part of routine cardiovascular care among patients with T2DM, especially in those with ASCVD.

Patients with type 2 diabetes are at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, especially myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Cardiovascular protection should be considered as a key objective when treating those patients. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), an injectable therapy for the treatment of hyperglycemia, have proven their efficacy in reducing major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke) both in controlled trials compared to placebo and in real-life studies compared with other glucose-lowering agents. These consistent findings profoundly influence international guidelines which recommend GLP-1RAs as preferred glucose-lowering agents in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or at high risk of developing this complication. However, real-life studies worldwide revealed that only a minority of patients receive a GLP-1RA. An even more surprising finding was that GLP-1RAs are less prescribed in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, including antecedents of coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, than in patients without such cardiovascular complications. The reasons for GLP-1RA underuse in clinical practice are multiple and concern physicians, patients, and health-care system. Bridging the gap between evidence-based cardiovascular protection with GLP-1RAs and their underuse in daily clinical practice in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk is crucial from a public health viewpoint.

Describing diversity of real world data sources in pharmacoepidemiologic studies: The DIVERSE scoping review.

PURPOSE: Real-world evidence (RWE) is increasingly used for medical regulatory decisions, yet concerns persist regarding its reproducibility and hence validity. This study addresses reproducibility challenges associated with diversity across real-world data sources (RWDS) repurposed for secondary use in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. Our aims were to identify, describe and characterize practices, recommendations and tools for collecting and reporting diversity across RWDSs, and explore how leveraging diversity could improve the quality of evidence. METHODS: In a preliminary phase, keywords for a literature search and selection tool were designed using a set of documents considered to be key by the coauthors. Next, a systematic search was conducted up to December 2021. The resulting documents were screened based on titles and abstracts, then based on full texts using the selection tool. Selected documents were reviewed to extract information on topics related to collecting and reporting RWDS diversity. A content analysis of the topics identified explicit and latent themes. RESULTS: Across the 91 selected documents, 12 topics were identified: 9 dimensions used to describe RWDS (organization accessing the data source, data originator, prompt, inclusion of population, content, data dictionary, time span, healthcare system and culture, and data quality), tools to summarize such dimensions, challenges, and opportunities arising from diversity. Thirty-six themes were identified within the dimensions. Opportunities arising from data diversity included multiple imputation and standardization. CONCLUSIONS: The dimensions identified across a large number of publications lay the foundation for formal guidance on reporting diversity of data sources to facilitate interpretation and enhance replicability and validity of RWE.

An exploratory review on the empirical evaluation of the quality of reporting and analyzing labor duration.

INTRODUCTION: This exploratory review aimed to provide empirical evidence on the definitions of labor, the statistical approaches and measures reported in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies measuring the duration of labor. METHODS: A systematic electronic literature search was conducted using different databases. An extraction form was designed and used to extract relevant data. English, French, and German studies published between 1999 and 2019 have been included. Only RCTs and observational studies analyzing labor duration (or a phase of labor duration) as a primary outcome have been included. RESULTS: Ninety-two RCTs and 126 observational studies were eligible. No definition of the onset of labor was provided in 21.7% (n = 20) of the RCTs and 23.8% (n = 30) of the observational studies. Mean was the most frequently applied measure of labor duration in the RCTs (89.1%, n = 82), and median in the observational studies (54.8%, n = 69). Most RCTs (83%, n = 76) and observational studies (70.6%, n = 89) analyzed labor duration using a bivariate method, with the t-test being the most frequently applied (45.7% and 27%, respectively). Only 10.8% (n = 10) of the RCTs and 52.4% (n = 66) of the observational studies conducted a multivariable regression: 3 (30%; out of 10) RCTs and 37 (56%; out of 66) observational studies used a time-to-event adapted model. CONCLUSION: This survey reports a lack of agreement with respect to how the onset of labor and phases of labor duration are presented. Concerning the statistical approaches, few studies used survival analysis, which is the appropriate statistical framework to analyze time-to-event data.

Validation of algorithms in studies based on routinely collected health data: general principles.

Clinicians, researchers, regulators, and other decision-makers increasingly rely on evidence from real-world data (RWD), including data routinely accumulating in health and administrative databases. RWD studies often rely on algorithms to operationalize variable definitions. An algorithm is a combination of codes or concepts used to identify persons with a specific health condition or characteristic. Establishing the validity of algorithms is a prerequisite for generating valid study findings that can ultimately inform evidence-based health care. This paper aims to systematize terminology, methods, and practical considerations relevant to the conduct of validation studies of RWD-based algorithms. We discuss measures of algorithm accuracy; gold/reference standard; study size; prioritizing accuracy measures; algorithm portability; and implication for interpretation. Information bias is common in epidemiologic studies, underscoring the importance of transparency in decisions regarding choice and prioritizing measures of algorithm validity. The validity of an algorithm should be judged in the context of a data source, and one size does not fit all. Prioritizing validity measures within a given data source depends on the role of a given variable in the analysis (eligibility criterion, exposure, outcome or covariate). Validation work should be part of routine maintenance of RWD sources.

A practical guide to estimating treatment effects in patients with rheumatic diseases using real-world data.

OBJECTIVE: Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard in study methodology. However, due to their study design and inclusion criteria, these studies may not capture the heterogeneity of real-world patient populations. In contrast, the lack of randomization and the presence of both measured and unmeasured confounding factors could bias the estimated treatment effect when using observational data. While causal inference methods allow for the estimation of treatment effects, their mathematical complexity may hinder their application in clinical research. METHODS: We present a practical, nontechnical guide using a common statistical package (Stata) and a motivational simulated dataset that mirrors real-world observational data from patients with rheumatic diseases. We demonstrate regression analysis, regression adjustment, inverse-probability weighting, propensity score (PS) matching and two robust estimation methods. RESULTS: Although the methods applied to control for confounding factors produced similar results, the commonly used one-to-one PS matching method could yield biased results if not thoroughly assessed. CONCLUSION: The guide we propose aims to facilitate the use of readily available methods in a common statistical package. It may contribute to robust and transparent epidemiological and statistical methods, thereby enhancing effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology.

Aspirin in Patients with Viral Hepatitis: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a disease demonstrating increasing morbidity and mortality, especially in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. Studies have shown that aspirin can reduce the incidence of liver cancer; however, the degree of benefit in patients with viral hepatitis is unclear. This study focused on the association between aspirin use and HCC risk in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. METHODS: A systematic search of the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases was performed from the earliest available date to December 16, 2023. The primary outcome was HCC incidence, and the secondary outcome was gastrointestinal bleeding. The results were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Meta-analyses were performed by using random or fixed-effects models based on the heterogeneity assessed via the I2 statistic. RESULTS: A total of 13 articles (303,414 participants and 14,423 HCC patients) were included in the analysis. The incidence of HCC in aspirin users was lower than that in non-aspirin users (HR 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.83; P < 0.001; I2 = 90.0%). Subgroup analysis further showed that this effect may be more obvious in HCV patients, non-cirrhotic patients, patients with statins, and long-term aspirin users, but it may have the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.20; P = 0.906; I2 = 0.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis shows that in patients with chronic viral hepatitis, aspirin use is associated with a significantly reduced risk of liver cancer, but attention should be paid to the possible risk of gastrointestinal bleeding, and this conclusion needs further validation in the future.

Alcohol - a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023.

The objective of this scoping review is to evaluate the updated evidence on the consumption of alcohol and health outcomes regarded as relevant for the Nordic and Baltic countries, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. It is based on the previous Nordic Nutrition Recommendations of 2012 and relevant papers published until 31 May 2021. Current evidence from mainly observational epidemiological studies suggests that regular, moderate alcohol consumption may confer protective effects against myocardial infarction (MI) and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analyses do not fully support these findings, possibly because these analyses may fail to identify low alcohol intake. For several cancers, it is not possible to set any safe limit. All-cause mortality is not increased with light to moderate alcohol intake in middle-aged and older adults who do not engage in binge drinking. Total abstinence is associated with the lowest risk of mortality in young adults. Observational studies on alcohol consumption are hampered by a number of inherent methodological issues such as ascertainment of alcohol intake, selection of appropriate exposure groups, and insufficient control of confounding variables, colliders, and mediators. It should also be emphasized that there is a socio-economic contribution to the alcohol-health axis with a stronger detrimental effect of alcohol in the lower social classes. The above issues contribute to the complexity of unravelling the causal web between alcohol, mediators, confounders, and health outcome.

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis on Janus kinase inhibitors in the management of vitiligo.

BACKGROUND: Vitiligo is a disease that affects people of all skin shades and can impact their quality of life. Reliable evidence on the effectiveness and adverse events associated with the recent use of Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors to treat vitiligo is needed. This protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis seeks to collect evidence from both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies to determine the effectiveness and patient-centered outcomes concerning treatment with JAK inhibitors. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review of the literature for RCTs and observational studies that used upadacitinib, ritlecitinib, brepocitinib, ifidancitinib, cerdulatinib, deglocitinib, baricitinib, tofacitinib, and ruxolitinib JAK inhibitors as treatments for vitiligo compared to placebo, no treatment, or combination therapies. We will systematically search from inception in Epistemonikos, MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, PsycINFO, Allied and Complementary Medicine Database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, Web of Science Core Collection, relevant preprint servers, and the gray literature. Ethics approval was not sought as the protocol and systematic review will not involve human participants, but rather summarized and anonymous data from studies. Primary outcomes include quality of life, percentage repigmentation, decreased vitiligo within 1 year or more, lasting repigmentation after a 2-year follow-up, cosmetic acceptability of repigmentation and tolerability or burden of treatment, and adverse events. Secondary outcomes are patient and study characteristics. We will include full-text articles, preprints, and clinical trial data in any language and all geographic regions. For data sources unavailable in English, we will obtain translations from global collaborators via the Cochrane Engage network. We will exclude articles for which sufficient information cannot be obtained from the authors of articles and systematic reviews. At least two investigators will independently assess articles for inclusion and extract data; reliability will be assessed before subsequent selection and data extraction of remaining studies. The risk of bias and certainty of evidence with Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation guidelines will be assessed independently by at least two investigators. We will estimate treatment effects by random-effects meta-analyses and assess heterogeneity using I2. Data that cannot be included in the meta-analysis will be reported narratively using themes. DISCUSSION: The proposed systematic review and meta-analysis describe the methods for summarizing and synthesizing the evidence on the effectiveness and patient-centered outcomes concerning the treatment of vitiligo with JAK inhibitors that were recently approved for this indication. To disseminate further the results of our systematic review, we plan to present them at international conferences and meetings. Our findings will provide robust evidence to facilitate decision-making at the policy or practitioner level. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42023383920.