Associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19: a global scoping review.

Background: Many respiratory viruses and their associated diseases are sensitive to meteorological factors. For SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, evidence on this sensitivity is inconsistent. Understanding the influence of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 epidemiology can help to improve pandemic preparedness. Objectives: This review aimed to examine the recent evidence about the relation between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a global scoping review of peer-reviewed studies published from January 2020 up to January 2023 about the associations between temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. Results: From 9,156 initial records, we included 474 relevant studies. Experimental studies on SARS-CoV-2 provided consistent evidence that higher temperatures and solar radiation negatively affect virus viability. Studies on COVID-19 (epidemiology) were mostly observational and provided less consistent evidence. Several studies considered interactions between meteorological factors or other variables such as demographics or air pollution. None of the publications included all determinants holistically. Discussion: The association between short-term meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 dynamics is complex. Interactions between environmental and social components need further consideration. A more integrated research approach can provide valuable insights to predict the dynamics of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential.

Ethical and Practical Considerations for an Agreement to Ensure Equitable Vaccine Access Comment on "More Pain, More Gain! The Delivery of COVID-19 Vaccines and the Pharmaceutical Industry's Role in Widening the Access Gap".

This paper discusses the potential of an international agreement to ensure equitable vaccine distribution, addressing the failures witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVAX was unable to prevent vaccine monopolization and unequal distribution, which led to significant disparities in vaccination rates and avoidable deaths. Any future agreement on equitable vaccine distribution must address ethical and practical issues to ensure global health equity and access. The proposed agreement should recognize healthcare as a human right and consider vaccines beyond mere commodities, emphasizing the social responsibility of pharmaceutical companies to prioritize affordability, availability, and accessibility, particularly for low-income countries (LICs). Voluntary licensing agreements are suggested as a means to enhance access to essential medicines. The paper also outlines the necessity of international cooperation, with robust compliance mechanisms, to effectively enforce such an agreement and mitigate future health crises.

Equity Lens on Canada's COVID-19 Response: Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: A growing literature has documented how the secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have compounded socioeconomic vulnerabilities already present in society, particularly across social categories such as gender, race, class, and socioeconomic status. Such effects demonstrate how pandemic response policies act as structural determinants of health to influence not only direct health outcomes but also intermediary outcomes, such as access to education or income. METHODS: This review aims to scope research that analyzes pandemic response policies in Canada from an equity perspective, to identify common themes, recommendations, and gaps. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were thematically analyzed, the majority being qualitative policy document analysis, applying critical frameworks and focused on effects on select priority populations. Analysis of economic and labour policies indicates a lack of consideration for the specific needs of priority populations, and those engaged in precarious, informal, and essential labour. Analysis of social policies illustrate the wide-ranging effects of school and service closures, particularly on women and children. Furthermore, these policies lacked consideration of populations marginalized during the pandemic, include older adults and their caregivers, as well as lack of consideration of the diversity of Indigenous communities. Recommendations proposed in this review call for developing policy responses that address persistent social and economic inequities, pandemic response policies tailored to the needs of priority populations and more meaningful consultation during policy development. CONCLUSION: The limited number of studies suggests there is still much scope for research recognizing policies as structural determinants of health inequities, including research which takes an intersectional approach.

Health and non-health benefits and equity impacts of individual-level economic relief programs during epidemics/pandemics in high income settings: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Economic relief programs are strategies designed to sustain societal welfare and population health during a regional or global scale infectious disease outbreak. While economic relief programmes are considered essential during a regional or global health crisis, there is no clear consensus in the literature about their health and non-health benefits and their impact on promoting equity. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review, searching eight electronic databases from January 01, 2001, to April 3, 2023, using text words and subject headings for recent pathogens (coronavirus (COVID-19), Ebola, Influenza, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), HIV, West Nile, and Zika), and economic relief programs; but restricted eligibility to high-income countries and selected diseases due to volume. Title and abstract screening were conducted by trained reviewers and Distiller AI software. Data were extracted in duplicates by two trained reviewers using a pretested form, and key findings were charted using a narrative approach. RESULTS: We identified 27,263 de-duplicated records, of which 50 were eligible. Included studies were on COVID-19 and Influenza, published between 2014 and 2023. Zero eligible studies were on MERS, SARS, Zika, Ebola, or West Nile Virus. We identified seven program types of which cash transfer (n = 12) and vaccination or testing incentive (n = 9) were most common. Individual-level economic relief programs were reported to have varying degrees of impact on public health measures, and sometimes affected population health outcomes. Expanding paid sick leave programs had the highest number of studies reporting health-related outcomes and positively impacted public health measures (isolation, vaccination uptake) and health outcomes (case counts and the utilization of healthcare services). Equity impact was most often reported for cash transfer programs and incentive for vaccination programs. Positive effects on general well-being and non-health outcomes included improved mental well-being and quality of life, food security, financial resilience, and job security. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that individual-level economic relief programs can have significant impacts on public health measures, population health outcomes and equity. As countries prepare for future pandemics, our findings provide evidence to stakeholders to recognize health equity as a fundamental public health goal when designing pandemic preparedness policies.

Understanding the secondary outcomes of international travel measures during the covid-19 pandemic: a scoping review of social impact evidence.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the effective use of international travel measures during the COVID-19 pandemic has focused on public health goals, namely limiting virus introduction and onward transmission. However, risk-based approaches includes the weighing of public health goals against potential social, economic and other secondary impacts. Advancing risk-based approaches thus requires fuller understanding of available evidence on such impacts. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of existing studies of the social impacts of international travel measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying a standardized typology of travel measures, and five categories of social impact, we searched 9 databases across multiple disciplines spanning public health and the social sciences. We identified 26 studies for inclusion and reviewed their scope, methods, type of travel measure, and social impacts analysed. RESULTS: The studies cover a diverse range of national settings with a strong focus on high-income countries. A broad range of populations are studied, hindered in their outbound or inbound travel. Most studies focus on 2020 when travel restrictions were widely introduced, but limited attention is given to the broader effects of their prolonged use. Studies primarily used qualitative or mixed methods, with adaptations to comply with public health measures. Most studies focused on travel restrictions, as one type of travel measure, often combined with domestic public health measures, making it difficult to determine their specific social impacts. All five categories of social impacts were observed although there was a strong emphasis on negative social impacts including family separation, decreased work opportunities, reduced quality of life, and inability to meet cultural needs. A small number of countries identified positive social impacts such as restored work-life balance and an increase in perceptions of safety and security. CONCLUSIONS: While international travel measures were among the most controversial interventions applied during the COVID-19 pandemic, given their prolonged use and widespread impacts on individuals and populations, there remains limited study of their secondary impacts. If risk-based approaches are to be advanced, involving informed choices between public health and other policy goals, there is a need to better understand such impacts, including their differential impacts across diverse populations and settings.

Mapping Australia's COVID-19 quarantine cohort journeys.

BACKGROUND: Australia rapidly developed COVID-19 quarantine programs to reduce the adverse outcomes of a novel pathogen imported by visitors and returned travellers. Different quarantine pathways were utilised over the pandemic, yet no definitive cohort map exists to guide future preparedness. We created a whole-of-system cohort journey map of Australian quarantine cohorts to inform future pandemic preparedness activities. METHODS: Australian parliamentary websites and Google were searched for publicly available grey literature from 2019 to 2023. Data about quarantine cohorts, pandemic plans and documents, journey activities, viral escape events, and quarantine recommendations were extracted and plotted to produce a whole-of-system cohort journey map. RESULTS: The system mapping process identified 22 distinct quarantine cohort journeys during COVID-19, yet few of the cohorts were mentioned in pandemic and emergency plans. Viral escape events were documented 27 times, and COVID-19 reviews and inquiries produced 282 quarantine-specific recommendations. Cohorts included international and domestic travellers who experienced home, hotel, and facility quarantine iterations. Other cohorts, such as humanitarian evacuations, diplomats, airline crews, community close contacts, and people experiencing homelessness, had distinctive quarantine journeys. CONCLUSIONS: This whole-of-system quarantine cohort map furthers the case for governments and policymakers to update pandemic plans to include the 22 identified cohorts and test plans through pandemic exercises. Recommendations from inquiries should be acquitted to reduce the risk of viral escape and to strengthen national preparedness if quarantine systems are required in future pandemic responses.

Use of proxy indicators for automated surveillance of severe acute respiratory infection, the Netherlands, 2017 to 2023: a proof-of-concept study.

BackgroundEffective pandemic preparedness requires robust severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance. However, identifying SARI patients based on symptoms is time-consuming. Using the number of reverse transcription (RT)-PCR tests or contact and droplet precaution labels as a proxy for SARI could accurately reflect the epidemiology of patients presenting with SARI.AimWe aimed to compare the number of RT-PCR tests, contact and droplet precaution labels and SARI-related International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes and evaluate their use as surveillance indicators.MethodsPatients from all age groups hospitalised at Leiden University Medical Center between 1 January 2017 up to and including 30 April 2023 were eligible for inclusion. We used a clinical data collection tool to extract data from electronic medical records. For each surveillance indicator, we plotted the absolute count for each week, the incidence proportion per week and the correlation between the three surveillance indicators.ResultsWe included 117,404 hospital admissions. The three surveillance indicators generally followed a similar pattern before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The correlation was highest between contact and droplet precaution labels and ICD-10 diagnostic codes (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.84). There was a strong increase in the number of RT-PCR tests after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.DiscussionAll three surveillance indicators have advantages and disadvantages. ICD-10 diagnostic codes are suitable but are subject to reporting delays. Contact and droplet precaution labels are a feasible option for automated SARI surveillance, since these reflect trends in SARI incidence and may be available real-time.

Repurposing surgical wards in pandemics - An appraisal of outcomes of COVID-19 patients treated in Orthopaedic wards.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a shift in the way healthcare resources were used. While India faced limited effects in the first COVID wave primarily due to strict lockdown of the county, it was one of the worst affected in the second wave and at one time reported the highest number of daily cases. To address the lack of intensive care units (ICU) beds, the surgical wards of our institute were repurposed to take care of patients requiring supplementary oxygen and other supportive care till either they improved or an ICU bed was available. The medical personnel in charge of the surgical wards were entrusted with the care of patients with support from intensive care support teams (ICST). Aims: We aimed to examine the clinical details of patients admitted in the repurposed orthopaedic wards during the second COVID wave and to evaluate the factors that might affect the clinical outcomes in such patients. Methods: This was a retrospective review of records of patients admitted in the repurposed orthopaedic wards between 16 April 2021 and 20 May 2021. Details related to demography, COVID-19 presentation, COVID-19-related management and clinical course, including transfers to ICUs, and outcomes in terms of either discharge to home or death were recorded. They were analysed using statistical software. Results: One hundred and twenty three patients were treated during the said period. Twenty patients died during treatment, resulting in a mortality rate of 16.3%. Age, gender, RT-PCR status, pre-existing comorbidities, SpO2 at admission, method of supplemental oxygen supply, total leukocyte counts, haemoglobin values, serum C-reactive protein, Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatinine values had no statistically significant association with death of a patient during treatment. Conclusion: Based on the results, one can state that clinicians of surgical specialities having background knowledge of internal medicine from undergraduate education can manage patients of COVID-19 with support from ICST with reasonable outcomes. In case of future pandemics, surgical wards can be repurposed to tide over exigencies. Additionally, primary care physicians, who are often the first point of contact for patients, can allay their apprehensions adequately in future pandemics, thus preventing widespread panic and burdening of healthcare resources.

KCL TEST: an open-source inspired asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance programme in an academic institution.

Rapid and accessible testing was paramount in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our university established KCL TEST: a SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic testing programme that enabled sensitive and accessible PCR testing of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva. Here, we describe our learnings and provide our blueprint for launching diagnostic laboratories, particularly in low-resource settings. Between December 2020 and July 2022, we performed 158277 PCRs for our staff, students, and their household contacts, free of charge. Our average turnaround time was 16 h and 37 min from user registration to result delivery. KCL TEST combined open-source automation and in-house non-commercial reagents, which allows for rapid implementation and repurposing. Importantly, our data parallel those of the UK Office for National Statistics, though we detected a lower positive rate and virtually no delta wave. Our observations strongly support regular asymptomatic community testing as an important measure for decreasing outbreaks and providing safe working spaces. Universities can therefore provide agile, resilient, and accurate testing that reflects the infection rate and trend of the general population. Our findings call for the early integration of academic institutions in pandemic preparedness, with capabilities to rapidly deploy highly skilled staff, as well as develop, test, and accommodate efficient low-cost pipelines.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and COVID-19 in Bangladesh-Lessons Learned.

The coronavirus infectious disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Bangladesh is a paradigm for how one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with 1270 people per square kilometer, managed to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic under extraordinary circumstances. This review highlights the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Bangladesh and the timeline of their detection in the context of the global experience with the management of vaccination and natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. The motivation to overcome the COVID-19 vaccine dilemma and track Bangladeshi SARS-CoV-2 sub-variants underscores the potential for a low-income country to excel in international medical science, despite having stressed health care services and limited availability of resources for SARS-CoV-2 testing and gene sequencing.

Charting a course for global progress in PIDs by 2030 - proceedings from the IPOPI global multi-stakeholders' summit (September 2023).

The International Patient Organisation for Primary Immunodeficiencies (IPOPI) held its second Global Multi-Stakeholders' Summit, an annual stimulating and forward-thinking meeting uniting experts to anticipate pivotal upcoming challenges and opportunities in the field of primary immunodeficiency (PID). The 2023 summit focused on three key identified discussion points: (i) How can immunoglobulin (Ig) therapy meet future personalized patient needs? (ii) Pandemic preparedness: what's next for public health and potential challenges for the PID community? (iii) Diagnosing PIDs in 2030: what needs to happen to diagnose better and to diagnose more? Clinician-Scientists, patient representatives and other stakeholders explored avenues to improve Ig therapy through mechanistic insights and tailored Ig preparations/products according to patient-specific needs and local exposure to infectious agents, amongst others. Urgency for pandemic preparedness was discussed, as was the threat of shortage of antibiotics and increasing antimicrobial resistance, emphasizing the need for representation of PID patients and other vulnerable populations throughout crisis and care management. Discussion also covered the complexities of PID diagnosis, addressing issues such as global diagnostic disparities, the integration of patient-reported outcome measures, and the potential of artificial intelligence to increase PID diagnosis rates and to enhance diagnostic precision. These proceedings outline the outcomes and recommendations arising from the 2023 IPOPI Global Multi-Stakeholders' Summit, offering valuable insights to inform future strategies in PID management and care. Integral to this initiative is its role in fostering collaborative efforts among stakeholders to prepare for the multiple challenges facing the global PID community.

How feasible is it to mobilize $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 has reinforced health and economic cases for investing in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). The World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) propose that low- and middle-income governments and donor countries should invest $31.1 billion each year for PPR. We analyse, based on the projected economic growth of countries between 2022 and 2027, how likely it is that low- and middle-income country governments and donors can mobilize the estimated funding. METHODS: We modelled trends in economic growth to project domestic health spending by low- and middle-income governments and official development assistance (ODA) by donors for years 2022 to 2027. We modelled two scenarios for countries and donors - a constant and an optimistic scenario. Under the constant scenario we assume that countries and donors continue to dedicate the same proportion of their health spending and ODA as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively, as they did during baseline (the latest year for which data are available). In the optimistic scenario, we assume a yearly increase of 2.5% in health spending as a share of GDP for countries and ODA as a share of GNI for donors. FINDINGS: Our analysis shows that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37%, lower-middle income countries 9%, and upper-middle income countries 1%, of their total health spending on PPR each year under the constant scenario to meet the World Bank WHO targets. Donors would need to allocate on average 8% of their total ODA across all sectors to PPR each year to meet their target. CONCLUSIONS: The World Bank WHO targets for PPR will not be met unless low- and middle-income governments and donors spend a much higher share of their funding on PPR. Even under optimistic growth scenarios, low-income and lower-middle income countries will require increased support from global health donors. The donor target cannot be met using the yearly increase in ODA under any scenario. If the country and donor targets are not met, the highest-impact health security measures need to be prioritized for funding. Alternative sources of PPR financing could include global taxation (e.g., on financial transactions, carbon, or airline flights), cancelling debt, and addressing illicit financial flows. There is also a need for continued work on estimating current PPR costs and funding requirements in order to arrive at more enduring and reliable estimates.

Mathematical modelling of the 100-day target for vaccine availability after the detection of a novel pathogen: A case study in Indonesia.

Globally, there has been a commitment to produce and distribute a vaccine within 100 days of the next pandemic. This 100-day target will place pressure on countries to make swift decisions on how to optimise vaccine delivery. We used data from the COVID-19 pandemic to inform mathematical modelling of future pandemics in Indonesia for a wide range of pandemic characteristics. We explored the benefits of vaccination programs with different start dates, rollout capacity, and age-specific prioritisation within a year of the detection of a novel pathogen. Early vaccine availability, public uptake of vaccines, and capacity for consistent vaccine delivery were the key factors influencing vaccine benefit. Monitoring age-specific severity will be essential for optimising vaccine benefit. Our study complements existing pathogen-specific pandemic preparedness plans and contributes a tool for the rapid assessment of future threats in Indonesia and similar middle-income countries.

Innovative approaches for vaccine trials as a key component of pandemic preparedness - a white paper.

BACKGROUND: WHO postulates the application of adaptive design features in the global clinical trial ecosystem. However, the adaptive platform trial (APT) methodology has not been widely adopted in clinical research on vaccines. METHODS: The VACCELERATE Consortium organized a two-day workshop to discuss the applicability of APT methodology in vaccine trials under non-pandemic as well as pandemic conditions. Core aspects of the discussions are summarized in this article. RESULTS: An "ever-warm" APT appears ideally suited to improve efficiency and speed of vaccine research. Continuous learning based on accumulating APT trial data allows for pre-planned adaptations during its course. Given the relative design complexity, alignment of all stakeholders at all stages of an APT is central. Vaccine trial modelling is crucial, both before and in a pandemic emergency. Various inferential paradigms are possible (frequentist, likelihood, or Bayesian). The focus in the interpandemic interval may be on research gaps left by industry trials. For activation in emergency, template Disease X protocols of syndromal design for pathogens yet unknown need to be stockpiled and updated regularly. Governance of a vaccine APT should be fully integrated into supranational pandemic response mechanisms. DISCUSSION: A broad range of adaptive features can be applied in platform trials on vaccines. Faster knowledge generation comes with increased complexity of trial design. Design complexity should not preclude simple execution at trial sites. Continuously generated evidence represents a return on investment that will garner societal support for sustainable funding. Adaptive design features will naturally find their way into platform trials on vaccines.

Survival, mortality and epidemic risk status of COVID-19: a population-based Study in Golestan province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Appreciating the various dimensions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic can improve health systems and prepare them to deal better with future pandemics and public health events. This study was conducted to investigate the association between the survival of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and the epidemic risk stratification of the disease in Golestan province, Iran. METHODS: In this study, all patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized in the hospitals of Golestan province of Iran from February 20, 2020, to December 19, 2022, and were registered in the Medical Care Monitoring Center (MCMC) system (85,885 individuals) were examined.The community's epidemic risk status (ERS) was determined based on the daily incidence statistics of COVID-19. The survival distribution and compare Survival in different subgroups was investigated using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank test and association between the survival and ERS by multiple Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: Out of 68,983 individuals whose data were correctly recorded, the mean age was 49 (SD = 23.98) years, and 52.8% were women. In total, 11.1% eventually died. The length of hospital stay was varying significantly with age, gender, ERS, underlying diseases, and COVID-19 severity (P < 0.001 for all). The adjusted hazard ratio of death for the ERS at medium, high, and very high-risk status compared to the low-risk status increased by 19%, 26%, and 56%, respectively (P < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Enhancing preparedness, facilitating rapid rises in hospital capacities, and developing backup healthcare capacities can prevent excessive hospital referrals during health crises and further deaths.

Informing pandemic management in Germany with trustworthy living evidence syntheses and guideline development: lessons learned from the COVID-19 evidence ecosystem.

OBJECTIVES: We present the 'COVID-19 evidence ecosystem' (CEOsys) as a German network to inform pandemic management and to support clinical and public health decision-making. We discuss challenges faced when organizing the ecosystem and derive lessons learned for similar networks acting during pandemics or health-related crises. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Bringing together 18 university hospitals and additional institutions, CEOsys key activities included research prioritization, conducting living systematic reviews (LSRs), supporting evidence-based (living) guidelines, knowledge translation (KT), detecting research gaps, and deriving recommendations, backed by technical infrastructure and capacity building. RESULTS: CEOsys rapidly produced 31 high-quality evidence syntheses and supported three living guidelines on COVID-19-related topics, while also developing methodological procedures. Challenges included CEOsys' late initiation in relation to the pandemic outbreak, the delayed prioritization of research questions, the continuously evolving COVID-19-related evidence, and establishing a technical infrastructure. Methodological-clinical tandems, the cooperation with national guideline groups and international collaborations were key for efficiency. CONCLUSION: CEOsys provided a proof-of-concept for a functioning evidence ecosystem at the national level. Lessons learned include that similar networks should, among others, involve methodological and clinical key stakeholders early on, aim for (inter)national collaborations, and systematically evaluate their value. We particularly call for a sustainable network.

Beyond "business as usual": lessons from FIFA for fair benefit-sharing in global health.

While researchers and agencies from low- and middle-income countries often contribute significantly to public health surveillance data, which is crucial for effective pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response activities, they often do not receive adequate compensation for their contributions. Incentivizing data sharing is important for informing public health responses to pathogens with pandemic potential. However, existing data-sharing legal frameworks have limitations. In this context, we looked beyond "business as usual" candidates to explore the applicability of a benefit-sharing model developed and implemented by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (International Federation of Association Football; FIFA) in international association football. This model rewards grassroots contributions and redistributes benefits, promoting a fair balance of interests across diverse economic contexts. We discuss adapting FIFA's mechanisms, including training compensation and solidarity payments, to create a novel benefit-sharing framework in global health. Given the complexity of global health, we note ways in which components of the FIFA model would need to be adapted for global health. Challenges such as integrating into existing legal frameworks, ensuring broad international buy-in, and accommodating different pandemic periods are examined. While adapting the FIFA model presents challenges, it offers a promising approach to achieving more equitable data sharing and benefit distribution in global health.

Lessons learned: avoiding bias via multi-state analysis of patients' trajectories in real-time.

Objectives: Many studies have attempted to determine the disease severity and patterns of COVID-19. However, at the beginning of the pandemic, the complex patients' trajectories were only descriptively reported, and many analyses were worryingly prone to time-dependent-, selection-, and competing risk biases. Multi-state models avoid these biases by jointly analysing multiple clinical outcomes while taking into account their time dependency, including current cases, and modelling competing events. This paper uses a publicly available data set from the first wave in Israel as an example to demonstrate the benefits of analysing hospital data via multi-state methodology. Methods: We compared the outcome of the data analysis using multi-state models with the outcome obtained when various forms of bias are ignored. Furthermore, we used Cox regression to model the transitions among the states in a multi-state model. This allowed for the comparison of the covariates' influence on transition rates between the two states. Lastly, we calculated expected lengths of stay and state probabilities based on the multi-state model and visualised it using stacked probability plots. Results: Compared to standard methods, multi-state models avoid many biases in the analysis of real-time disease developments. The utility of multi-state models is further highlighted through the use of stacked probability plots, which visualise the results. In addition, by stratification of disease patterns by subgroups and visualisation of the distribution of possible outcomes, these models bring the data into an interpretable form. Conclusion: To accurately guide the provision of medical resources, this paper recommends the real-time collection of hospital data and its analysis using multi-state models, as this method eliminates many potential biases. By applying multi-state models to real-time data, the gained knowledge allows rapid detection of altered disease courses when new variants arise, which is essential when informing medical and political decision-makers as well as the general population.

Pandemic burden in low-income settings and impact of limited and delayed interventions: A granular modelling analysis of COVID-19 in Kabwe, Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: Pandemic response in low-income countries (LICs) or settings often suffers from scarce epidemic surveillance and constrained mitigation capacity. The drivers of pandemic burden in such settings, and the impact of limited and delayed interventions remain poorly understood. METHODS: We analysed COVID-19 seroprevalence and all-cause excess deaths data from the peri-urban district of Kabwe, Zambia between March 2020 and September 2021 with a novel mathematical model. Data encompassed three consecutive waves caused by the wild-type, Beta and Delta variants. RESULTS: Across all three waves, we estimated a high cumulative attack rate, with 78% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71-85) of the population infected, and a high all-cause excess mortality, at 402 (95% CrI 277-473) deaths per 100,000 people. Ambitiously improving health care to a capacity similar to that in high-income settings could have averted up to 46% (95% CrI 41-53) of accrued excess deaths, if implemented from June 2020 onward. An early and accelerated vaccination rollout could have achieved the highest reductions in deaths. Had vaccination started as in some high-income settings in December 2020 and with the same daily capacity (doses per 100 population), up to 68% (95% CrI 64-71) of accrued excess deaths could have been averted. Slower rollouts would have still averted 62% (95% CrI 58-68), 54% (95% CrI 49-61) or 26% (95% CrI 20-38) of excess deaths if matching the average vaccination capacity of upper-middle-, lower-middle- or LICs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Robust quantitative analyses of pandemic data are of pressing need to inform future global pandemic preparedness commitments.