Does the soil microbial community facilitate Mimosa pudica's biological performance under abiotic stress? Growth, tolerance mechanisms, and seismonastic behaviour.

Climate change effects such as soil salinisation or drought dramatically affect native and potentially invasive plant species. Mimosa pudica, originally native to South America but spread to Africa and Asia, exhibits great adaptability to disturbed environments in tropical and subtropical areas. It has become a model organism for studying thigmomorphogenetic behaviour due to its ability to display fast responses to mechanical stimuli. We investigated the effects of salt and water stresses on M. pudica in interaction with a Mediterranean coastal dune microbial community by growing plants on soils collected from dunes near Valencia, Spain. Plant biomass, potential mechanisms of stress tolerance, seismonastic response, and phenology were assessed. Abiotic stress, particularly salt stress, adversely affects plant performance and seismonasty. Mimosa pudica, however, displayed the blockage of Na+ transport at the root level as a primary defence mechanism against salinity. When exposed to natural soils, plants produced more leaves and flowers, with lower flower abortion rates than plants in a sterile substrate, and the stimulated plants displayed faster responses across time before reaching a plateau, while the recovery increased with time. Our results highlight the need for integrative and multidisciplinary approaches to understand plant-abiotic stress-microorganisms interactions. In M. pudica, soil microorganisms had weak or no effects on biomass or biochemical stress markers; however, their presence strongly improved reproductive traits and seismonasty, thus facilitating potential plant establishment in a new environment.

Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time.

Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases - leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.

Seasonal timing of fluorescence and photosynthetic yields at needle and canopy scales in evergreen needleleaf forests.

The seasonal timing and magnitude of photosynthesis in evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) has major implications for the carbon cycle and is increasingly sensitive to changing climate. Earlier spring photosynthesis can increase carbon uptake over the growing season or cause early water reserve depletion that leads to premature cessation and increased carbon loss. Determining the start and the end of the growing season in ENFs is challenging due to a lack of field measurements and difficulty in interpreting satellite data, which are impacted by snow and cloud cover, and the pervasive "greenness" of these systems. We combine continuous needle-scale chlorophyll fluorescence measurements with tower-based remote sensing and gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates at three ENF sites across a latitudinal gradient (Colorado, Saskatchewan, Alaska) to link physiological changes with remote sensing signals during transition seasons. We derive a theoretical framework for observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and solar intensity-normalized SIF (SIFrelative) under snow-covered conditions, and show decreased sensitivity compared with reflectance data (~20% reduction in measured SIF vs. ~60% reduction in near-infrared vegetation index [NIRv] under 50% snow cover). Needle-scale fluorescence and photochemistry strongly correlated (r2 = 0.74 in Colorado, 0.70 in Alaska) and showed good agreement on the timing and magnitude of seasonal transitions. We demonstrate that this can be scaled to the site level with tower-based estimates of LUEP and SIFrelative which were well correlated across all sites (r2 = 0.70 in Colorado, 0.53 in Saskatchewan, 0.49 in Alaska). These independent, temporally continuous datasets confirm an increase in physiological activity prior to snowmelt across all three evergreen forests. This suggests that data-driven and process-based carbon cycle models which assume negligible physiological activity prior to snowmelt are inherently flawed, and underscores the utility of SIF data for tracking phenological events. Our research probes the spectral biology of evergreen forests and highlights spectral methods that can be applied in other ecosystems.

Patterns of spawning and settlement of reef fishes as strategic responses to post-settlement competition.

Settlement is a critical transition in the life history of reef fish, and the timing of this event can have a strong effect on fitness. Key factors that influence settlement timing are predictable lunar cyclic variation in tidal currents, moonlight, and nocturnal predation risk as larvae transition from pelagic to benthic environments. However, populations typically display wide variation in the arrival of settlers over the lunar cycle. This variation is often hypothesized to result from unpredictable conditions in the pelagic environment and bet-hedging by spawning adults. Here, we consider the hypothesis that the timing of spawning and settlement is a strategic response to post-settlement competition. We use a game theoretic model to predict spawning and settlement distributions when fish face a tradeoff between minimizing density-independent predation risk while crossing the reef crest vs. avoiding high competitor density on settlement habitat. In general, we expect competition to spread spawning over time such that settlement is distributed around the lunar phase with the lowest predation risk, similar to an ideal free distribution in which competition spreads competitors across space. We examine the effects of overcompensating density dependence, age-dependent competition, and competition among daily settler cohorts. Our model predicts that even in the absence of stochastic variation in the larval environment, competition can result in qualitative divergence between spawning and settlement distributions. Furthermore, we show that if competitive strength increases with settler age, competition results in covariation between settler age and settlement date, with older larvae settling when predation risk is minimal. We predict that competition between daily cohorts delays peak settlement, with priority effects potentially selecting for a multimodal settlement distribution.

Synchronised monitoring of plant and insect diversity: a case study using automated Malaise traps and DNA-based methods.

The occurrence and distribution of insects and their possible associations with plant species are largely unknown in Germany and baseline data to monitor future trends are urgently needed. Using newly-designed automated Malaise trap multi-samplers, the occurrence of insect species and their potential associations with plants was monitored synchronously at two contrasting field sites in Germany: an urban botanical garden and a forest research station. Taxa were identified by metabarcoding of the insects and the plant traces present in the preservative ethanol of the Malaise trap samples. For comparison, a botanical survey was conducted in the vicinity of the traps. Across both sites, we identified a total of 1290 exact sequence variants (ESVs) assigned to Insecta, of which 205 are known to be pollinators. In the botanical garden, we detected the occurrence of 128 plant taxa, of which 41 also had one of their known insect pollinator species detected. Insect species richness was highest in May, mainly attributed to an increase in Diptera. These results present a case study of the applicability of automated sampling and DNA-based methods to monitor the timings of flowering and corresponding activity of plant-visiting insects.

Effects of climate on the phenology of Annona senegalensis Pers. (Annonaceae) and the distribution of associated insects in Burkina Faso.

Climate change and global warming in the Sahelian region cause dramatic drought and advancing of the desert. This phenomenon could affect the plant survival and community composition, but even for surviving plants, it could affect their phenology and the insect community associated with them. In a space-for-time approach, we studied the case of Annona senegalensis Pers. (Annonaceae), a common shrub in tropical areas, to determine the impact of climate change on its phenology and the insects associated with its flowers and fruits. We determined the phenology phases of Annona senegalensis during a 1-year period and assessed the abundance and diversity of insects in the Sudanian and the Sudano-Sahelian climatic zones of Burkina Faso. Temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were recorded during 12 months in two sites per zone. Leafing of Annona senegalensis lasted 10 months in the Sudanian zone, flowering and fruiting were 3 months long. In the Sudano-Sahelian zone, leafing lasted 8 months while flowering and fruiting were 3 and 4 months long, respectively. A total of 10,040 insects belonging to 48 species were collected in the two climatic zones. Forty-six species were found in the Sudanian zone while 25 species were recorded in the Sudano-Sahelian one. The variations in the plant phenology and the insect community were mainly due to the variation in rainfall across both climatic zones. Our results emphasize that advancing of the desert due to climate change could not only affect the survival of plants but for resistant species it also affect their interactions with insects and the whole insect community associated.

The potential for an increasing threat of unseasonal temperature cycles to dormant plants.

Two functional responses largely guide woody plants' survival to winter conditions: cold hardiness and dormancy. Dormancy affects budbreak timing based on chill accumulation. Effects of warming on dormancy may appear time-shifted: fall and winter warming events decrease chill accumulation, delaying budbreak observed in spring. The same warming events also affect cold hardiness dynamics, having immediate implications. As cold deacclimation rates increase with dormancy progression, the same amount of warming has greater damage risk the later it occurs in the season, depending on return of low temperatures. Should frequency of erratic weather increase with climate change, more instances of risk are expected. However, understanding how plants fare through seasons now and in future climates still requires better knowledge of winter physiology.

Predicting rice phenology across China by integrating crop phenology model and machine learning.

This study explores the integration of crop phenology models and machine learning (ML) approaches for predicting rice phenology across China, to gain a deeper understanding of rice phenology prediction. Multiple approaches were used to predict heading and maturity dates at 337 locations across the main rice growing regions of China from 1981 to 2020, including crop phenology model, machine learning and hybrid model that integrate both approaches. Furthermore, an interpretable machine learning (IML) using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was employed to elucidate influence of climatic and varietal factors on uncertainty in crop phenology model predictions. Overall, the hybrid model demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting rice phenology, followed by machine learning and crop phenology models. The best hybrid model, based on a serial structure and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.65 and 5.72 days and coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.93 and 0.9 for heading and maturity predictions, respectively. SHAP analysis revealed temperature to be the most influential climate variable affecting phenology predictions, particularly under extreme temperature conditions, while rainfall and solar radiation were found to be less influential. The analysis also highlighted the variable importance of climate across different phenological stages, rice cultivation patterns, and geographic regions, underscoring the notable regionality. The study proposed that a hybrid model using an IML approach would not only improve the accuracy of prediction but also offer a robust framework for leveraging data-driven in crop modeling, providing a valuable tool for refining and advancing the modeling process in rice.

Enhanced autumn phenology model incorporating agricultural drought.

The impacts of various drought types on autumn phenology have yet to be extensively explored. We address the influence of pre-season agricultural and meteorological droughts on autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere. To this end, enhanced autumn phenology models incorporating drought factors was developed, contributing to a deeper understanding of these complex interactions. The study reveals that there was no significant trend of advancement or delay in the End of Season (EOS) across the Northern Hemisphere based on SIF estimates from 2001 to 2020. The cumulative and delayed impacts of pre-season agricultural drought on EOS were found to be more pronounced than those associated with meteorological drought. The analysis of various evaluation indexes shows that the performance of the Cooling Degree Days (CDD) model incorporating the Standardized Soil Moisture Drought Index (CDDSSMI) in simulating EOS in the Northern Hemisphere is >14 % higher than that of the standard CDD model. Additionally, the performance of the CDD model with the Standardized Precipitation Index (CDDSPI) in simulating EOS in the Northern Hemisphere is improved by >5.6 % compared to the standard CDD model. A comparison of future EOS projections across various models reveals that the CDD model significantly overestimates EOS in different scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The CDDSSMI model projects EOS approximately 7 days earlier than the CDD model, and the CDDSPI model projects EOS approximately 5 days earlier than the CDD model. This study highlights the diverse impacts of drought types on plant autumn phenology and underscores the significance of parameterizing drought impacts in autumn phenology models.

Intraspecific priority effects in response to egg hatching delay in a pond-breeding salamander.

As reproduction phenologies shift with climate change, populations can experience intraspecific priority effects, wherein early hatching cohorts experience an advantage over late-hatching cohorts, resulting in altered demography. Our study objective was to identify how variation in egg hatching phenology alters intraspecific interactions in small-mouthed salamanders, Ambystoma texanum. We addressed two research questions: (Q1) How are demographic responses altered by variation in the temporal duration of hatching between cohorts, and (Q2) How does the seasonality of hatching delays affect demographic responses? We manipulated hatching phenologies of A. texanum eggs and reared larvae in outdoor mesocosms to metamorphosis. For Q1, hatching delay exhibited non-linear relationships with survival and body size, with the greatest asynchrony in cohort additions resulting in the highest mortality and largest body sizes. For Q2, hatching delay effects were stronger (i.e., survival was lower and body sizes larger) when they occurred later in the season, potentially due to temperature differences that larvae experienced. Overall, our results demonstrate that changes in intraspecific interactions due to phenological shifts can be context-dependent, depending on the strength (i.e., temporal duration) and seasonality of such processes. Identifying context-dependencies of phenological shifts will be critical for predicting changes in organismal demographics with climatic shifts.

A mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) adult development rate model confirms evolved geographic differences.

Insects live in a wide range of thermal environments and have evolved species- and location-specific physiological processes for survival in hot and cold extremes. Thermally driven dormancy strategies, development rates and thresholds are important for synchronizing cohorts within a population and to local climates and often vary among populations within a species. Mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is a widely distributed forest insect native to North America with clinal genetic differentiation in thermally dependent traits. MPB development occurs in Pinus phloem beneath the bark, and its cryptic habitat makes experimentation difficult, particularly for the adult stage. We describe a novel method for modeling MPB adult development following pupation and terminating in emergence from a brood tree. We focus on an Arizona (southern) MPB population with previously described preadult development rates. Field-observed tree attack, adult emergence, and phloem temperature data are combined in a parameterized cohort model and candidate rate curves are evaluated to describe adult emergence timing. Model competition indicates that the Brière rate curve provided the best fit to field data and performed well under cross-validation. Results confirm that the development of Arizona MPB adults is slower than the previously described development rate of more northern Utah adults. Using the estimated adult rate curve in a scenario of increasing mean temperatures, we show that the timing of second-generation adult emergence in the same year would result in cold-intolerant lifestages during winter, limiting the success of bivoltine populations.

Alpine grassland community productivity and diversity differences influence significantly plant sexual reproduction strategies.

Whether and how community structure variation affects plant sexual reproduction is crucial for understanding species' local adaptation and plant community assembly, but remains unrevealed. In Qinghai-Tibetan grassland communities that differed in aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity, we found significant influence of AGB on both species' reproductive biomass allocation (RBA) and flowering and fruiting time, but of species diversity only on species' reproductive time. In high-AGB or high-diversity communities, smaller and earlier flowering species generally advanced their reproductive phenology and increased their reproductive allocation for maximizing their reproductive success, whereas larger and later flowering species delayed their reproductive phenology and decreased their reproductive allocation for maximizing their vegetative growth and resource competition. This change in reproductive allocation with the variation in community structures was more pronounced in nonclonal as compared to clonal plant species. Thus, we evidence an important influence of community structure on plant sexual reproduction strategies, and the pattern of the influence depends largely on species biological attributes.

Temperature sum models in plant spring phenology studies: two commonly used methods have different fields of application.

In studies of plant spring phenology, temperature sum models are traditional tools. They are used to quantify plant development in terms of accumulation of temperature-dependent developmental units, such as Growing Degree Hours, GDHs. A key parameter in these models is the threshold (or base) temperature, Tthr, representing the lower thermal limit for the development to occur. The parameter can be either estimated when the model is fitted into the data or fixed a priori. Here we examine the limitations of both methods and identify fields of applications for each of them.

Simulation of early season herbivory via mechanical damage affects flower production in pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo ssp. pepo).

BACKGROUND: Damage from insect herbivores can elicit a wide range of plant responses, including reduced or compensatory growth, altered volatile profiles, or increased production of defence compounds. Specifically, herbivory can alter floral development as plants reallocate resources towards defence and regrowth functions. For pollinator-dependent species, floral quantity and quality are critical for attracting floral visitors; thus, herbivore-induced developmental effects that alter either floral abundance or attractiveness may have critical implications for plant reproductive success. Based on past work on resource trade-offs, we hypothesize that herbivore damage-induced effects are stronger in structural floral traits that require significant resource investment (e.g., flower quantity), as plants reallocate resources towards defence and regrowth, and weaker in secondary floral traits that require less structural investment (e.g., nectar rewards). SCOPE: In this study, we simulated early-season herbivore mechanical damage in the domesticated jack-o-lantern pumpkin Cucurbita pepo ssp. pepo and measured a diverse suite of floral traits over a 60-day greenhouse experiment. KEY RESULTS: We found that mechanical damage delayed the onset of male anthesis and reduced the total quantity of flowers produced. Additionally, permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) indicated that mechanical damage significantly impacts overall floral volatile profile, though not output of sesquiterpenoids, a class of compounds known to recruit specialized cucumber beetle herbivores and squash bee pollinators. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, we show that C. pepo spp. pepo reduces investment in male flower production following mechanical damage, and that floral volatiles do exhibit shifts in production, indicative of damage-induced trait plasticity. Such reductions in male flower production could reduce the relative attractiveness of damaged plants to foraging pollinators in this globally relevant cultivated species.

Interactions between developmental phenology, carbon movement, and storage constrain demography in the understory clonal herb Podophyllum peltatum L.

Little is known about how carbon integration and storage dynamics affect and are affected by demography in field populations. We sought to elucidate this link by examining dynamic patterns of carbon integration relative to the timing of demographically significant developmental decisions regarding shoot type determination in mayapple, Podophyllum peltatum, a clonal plant with large and persistent rhizomes. Individual rhizome systems growing in natural populations were fed 14CO2 either in late-April, early-May, or mid-June, then harvested at intervals throughout the current season and into the next. When distribution of label was examined we found that carbon fixed at different times in the growing season is used differently: April-fixed assimilate remained in the labeled shoot or was moved into the old rhizome, May-fixed assimilate was found predominantly in the old rhizome, while early-June fixed assimilate moved into the old rhizome and the extending new ramet. Movement of assimilate into the old rhizome appeared to have precedence over formation of additional new ramets. Despite significant within season changes in location of dominant sinks within rhizome systems, there was little redistribution of labeled assimilate: early fixed assimilate was not used to fuel later within season growth, however, assimilate was redistributed between seasons. Vegetative and sexual systems differed in the distribution only of April-fixed assimilate. This was observed even though early labeling occurred prior to anthesis. Sexual systems retained a greater proportion of assimilate in the stem than did vegetative ones, which exported more to the old rhizome. 14C-distribution patterns did not vary between systems differing in future demographic status suggesting that the developmental decision regarding shoot type is based on resources acquired in prior years. We explore the hypothesis that preformation and storage are functionally linked traits that permit plants to coordinate the developmental determination of structures differing in cost and demographic function with known resource status. We conclude that demography influences and is influenced by integrative physiology and that physiological restrictions on within season redistribution of assimilates constrain plants' capacities to respond to short-term environmental variation. Such constraints may affect plants' abilities to respond to rapid environmental change in the Anthropocene.

The ice phenology as a predictor of Planktothrix rubescens bloom in vegetation season in temperate lakes.

Introduction: Global warming affects air and water temperatures, which impacts the phenology of lakes and aquatic ecosystems. These changes are most noticeable during winter, when the potentially toxic Planktothrix rubescens forms its inoculum for annual blooms. Mostly, research has been conducted on alpine lakes, where blooms have persisted for decades, while a few have focused on temperate lakes. Our study aimed to determine the factors influencing the dynamics of the development of P. rubescens in temperate lakes where blooms occasionally occur, with a particular emphasis on the role of ice phenology. Methods: We investigated the vertical distribution of P. rubescens in an annual cycle in three temperate lakes. Samples were collected monthly in the winter and biweekly during the vegetative seasons. Overall, 434 samples were collected and analyzed according to biological and chemical parameters. Physical parameters were measured in situ. Results: The vegetation seasons in temperate lakes showed a similar development pattern in the P. rubescens population as that in alpine lakes. Our results also show the influence of physical and chemical factors on the vertical distribution of this cyanobacterium. These results revealed the significant impact of P. rubescens filaments on phytoplankton biodiversity and biomass. Our data show the role of ice phenology in the establishment of the winter inoculum of P. rubescens and its further mass development until its disappearance in autumn. Conclusion: A climate-zone-independent pattern of P. rubescens blooms was observed during the vegetation periods. The population of P. rubescens was more influenced by physical factors than by the availability of dissolved nutrients in the water. Despite the same etiology, global warming has been shown to cause different responses in aquatic ecosystems, which affect the different nature of P. rubescens appearances. We associated blooms in temperate lakes, in contrast to alpine lakes, mainly with the presence of ice cover during severe winters, when the species establishes its inoculum. Hence, blooms in temperate lakes occur at different time intervals. Therefore, the dynamics of periodic blooms of P. rubescens in temperate lakes provide novel knowledge to the case study and a counterpoint to permanent blooms found in deep alpine lakes.

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance.

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.

Breeding phenology drives variation in reproductive output, reproductive costs and offspring fitness in a viviparous ectotherm.

Phenological advances are a widespread response to global warming and can contribute to determine the climate vulnerability of organisms, particularly in ectothermic species which are highly dependent on ambient temperatures to complete their life cycle. Yet, the relative contribution of breeding dates and temperature conditions during gestation on fitness of females and their offspring is poorly documented in reptiles. Here, we exposed females of the common lizard Zootoca vivipara to contrasting thermal scenarios (cold versus hot treatment) during gestation and quantified effects of parturition dates and thermal treatment on life-history traits of females and their offspring for one year. Overall, our results suggest that parturition date has a greater impact than thermal conditions during gestation on life history strategies. In particular, we found positive effects of an earlier parturition date on juvenile survival, growth and recruitment suggesting that environmental dependent selection and/or differences in parental quality between early and late breeders underlie seasonal changes in offspring fitness. Yet, an earlier parturition date compromised the energetic condition of gravid females, which suggests the existence of a mother-offspring conflict regarding the optimisation of parturition dates. While numerous studies focused on the direct effects of alterations in incubation temperatures on reptile life-history traits, our results highlight the importance of considering the role of breeding phenology in assessing the short- and long-term effects of thermal developmental plasticity.

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.