The effect of fine grits and fine debris concentrations on the MLVSS/MLSS ratio of an activated sludge system.

This study embarks on an explorative investigation into the effects of typical concentrations and varying particle sizes of fine grits (FG, the involatile portion of suspended solids) and fine debris (FD, the volatile yet unbiodegradable fraction of suspended solids) within the influent on the mixed liquor volatile suspended solids (MLVSS)/mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) ratio of an activated sludge system. Through meticulous experimentation, it was discerned that the addition of FG or FD, the particle size of FG, and the concentration of FD bore no substantial impact on the pollutant removal efficiency (denoted by the removal rate of COD and ammonia nitrogen) under constant operational conditions. However, a notable decrease in the MLVSS/MLSS ratio was observed with a typical FG concentration of 20 mg/L, with smaller FG particle sizes exacerbating this reduction. Additionally, variations in FD concentrations influenced both MLSS and MLVSS/MLSS ratios; a higher FD concentration led to an increased MLSS and a reduced MLVSS/MLSS ratio, indicating FD accumulation in the system. A predictive model for MLVSS/MLSS was constructed based on quality balance calculations, offering a tool for foreseeing the MLVSS/MLSS ratio under stable long-term influent conditions of FG and FD. This model, validated using data from the BXH wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), showcased remarkable accuracy.

Early recurrence as a pivotal event in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: identifying predictors and key molecular signals for survivors.

PURPOSE: The duration of response to treatment is a significant prognostic indicator, with early recurrence (ER) often predicting poorer survival outcomes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors. This study seeks to elucidate the factors contributing to the onset of ER following radiotherapy in NPC survivors. METHODS: This investigation encompassed 2,789 newly diagnosed NPC patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was employed to evaluate the independent predictors of earlier recurrence. A machine learning-based prediction model of NPC recurrence patterns was developed. Tumorous RNA-sequencing (in-house cohort: N = 192) and biological tipping point analysis were utilized to infer potential molecular mechanisms associated with ER. RESULTS: Our results demonstrated that ER within 24 months post-initial treatment was the optimal time frame for identifying early malignant progression in NPC survivors. The ER cohort (150 of 2,789, 5.38%) exhibited a notably short median overall survival of 48.6 months. Multivariate analyses revealed that male gender, T4 stage, local or regional residual disease, detectable pre- and post-radiotherapy EBV DNA, and the absence of induction chemotherapy were significant predictors of earlier recurrence. The machine learning-based predictive model further underscored the importance of tumor-related factors in NPC recurrence. Moreover, ER emerged as a pivotal stage in NPC progression, with 15 critical transition signals identified potentially associated with the negative modulation of the immune response. CONCLUSIONS: Our comprehensive analysis of NPC recurrence patterns has unveiled insights into the key factors driving ER and provided novel insights into potential early warning biomarkers and the mechanisms underlying NPC progression.

Predictive model for the instability of flexible formwork concrete wall in secondary mining of non-pillar coal mining.

The secondary mining movement in non-pillar coal extraction causes significant overrun damage to flexible formwork concrete walls, leading to extensive deformation of roadway roof and bottom plates. This adversely affects working face efficiency and safety. The engineering context focuses on the non-pillar gob-side retaining walls in the 1315 working face of Zhaozhuang Coal Mine and the 23107 working face of Xiegou Coal Mine. Through on-site investigation, numerical simulation, theoretical analysis, and testing, we explore the stress migration law and destabilizing mechanism of the flexible formwork concrete wall influenced by the secondary mining movement of the coal-free pillar along the hollow wall. The research results showed that: (1) During the mining back process, the concrete wall formed with flexible formwork may experience stress concentration, leading to excessive damage and compromising mining safety. (2) Developing a predictive stress model for the concrete wall with flexible formwork is essential. If the stress surpasses the ultimate compressive strength during mining back, reinforcement becomes necessary.3) The length of damage overrun in the flexible formwork concrete wall exhibits two distinct stages as the distance back to mining increases. The first stage shows nearly linear growth, while the second stage indicates a decreasing growth rate, ultimately stabilizing. The application of Z6 concrete reinforcing agent effectively strengthens the flexible formwork concrete wall.

Construction and Evaluation of a Predictive Model for Grassroots Nurses' Risk Perception of "Internet + Nursing Services": A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study.

Purpose: The development of "Internet + nursing services" can effectively solve the problem of population aging, and grassroots nurses are the primary providers of such services in rural areas. This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting grassroots nurses' risk perception of "Internet + nursing services" and construct a predictive model. Patients and Methods: A multicenter cross-sectional study of 2220 nurses from 27 secondary hospitals and 36 community health centers in Hubei Province was conducted from August to December 2023 using a multi-stage cluster sampling method. Information was collected through a structured anonymous questionnaire. A Chi-square test, a Welch t-test, and binary logistic regression analyses were employed to determine independent risk factors for grassroots nurses' risk perception of "Internet + nursing services", and a nomogram was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curves were plotted to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the nomogram. Results: A total of 2050 valid questionnaires were collected, demonstrating that 51.95% of grassroots nurses thought that "Internet + nursing services" was a medium-high risk. Age, other sources of income, knowledge about "Internet + nursing services", personal safety, physical function, occupational exposure, social psychosocial, and time risk (P<0.05) were independent risk factors for grassroots nurses' risk perception. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.939. The calibration and decision curve analyses demonstrated good calibration ability and clinical application values. Conclusion: The prediction model constructed in this study has good prediction ability. Most grassroots nurses believe that "Internet + nursing services" are risky and influenced by several factors. It is suggested that the government and hospitals should formulate a unified charging standard, improve the safety guarantee, and gradually eliminate the concerns of grassroots nurses.

Development and Validation of a Diagnostic Model for Enhancing Lesions on Breast MRI: Based on Kaiser Score.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop and validate a new diagnostic model based on the Kaiser score for preoperative diagnosis of the malignancy probability of enhancing lesions on breast MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study collected consecutive inpatient data (including imaging data, clinical data, and pathological data) from two different institutions. All patients underwent preoperative breast Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) examinations and were found to have enhancing lesions. These lesions were confirmed as benign or malignant by surgical resection or biopsy pathology (all carcinomas in situ were confirmed by pathology after surgical resection). Data from one institution were used as the training set(284 cases), and data from the other institution were used as the validation set(107 cases). The Kaiser score was directly incorporated into the diagnostic model as a single predictive variable. Other predictive variables were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to integrate the Kaiser score and other selected predictive variables to construct a new diagnostic model, presented in the form of a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, DeLong test, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were adopted to evaluate and compare the discrimination of the diagnostic model for breast enhancing lesions based on Kaiser score (hereinafter referred to as the "breast lesion diagnostic model") and the Kaiser score alone. Calibration curves were used to assess the calibration of the breast lesion diagnostic model, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the diagnostic model and the Kaiser score. RESULTS: LASSO regression indicated that, besides the indicators already included in the Kaiser score system, "age", "MIP sign", "associated imaging features", and "clinical breast examination (CBE) results" were other valuable diagnostic parameters for breast enhancing lesions. In the training set, the AUCs of the breast lesion diagnostic model and the Kaiser score were 0.948 and 0.869, respectively, with a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05). In the validation set, the AUCs of the breast lesion diagnostic model and the Kaiser score were 0.956 and 0.879, respectively, with a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05). The DeLong test, NRI, and IDI showed that the breast lesion diagnostic model had a higher discrimination ability for breast enhancing lesions compared to the Kaiser score alone, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). The calibration curves indicated good calibration of the breast lesion diagnostic model. DCA demonstrated that the breast lesion diagnostic model had higher clinical application value, with greater net clinical benefit over a wide range of diagnostic thresholds compared to the Kaiser score. CONCLUSION: The Kaiser score-based breast lesion diagnostic model, which integrates "age," "MIP sign", "associated imaging features", and "CBE results", can be used for the preoperative diagnosis of the malignancy probability of breast enhancing lesions, and it outperforms the classic Kaiser score in terms of diagnostic performance for such lesions.

Development of Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Machine Learning Models for Equitable Learning Health System: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of young at-risk patients and nonsmokers are excluded by the current guidelines for lung cancer (LC) screening, resulting in low-screening adoption. The vision of the US National Academy of Medicine to transform health systems into learning health systems (LHS) holds promise for bringing necessary structural changes to health care, thereby addressing the exclusivity and adoption issues of LC screening. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to realize the LHS vision by designing an equitable, machine learning (ML)-enabled LHS unit for LC screening. It focuses on developing an inclusive and practical LC risk prediction model, suitable for initializing the ML-enabled LHS (ML-LHS) unit. This model aims to empower primary physicians in a clinical research network, linking central hospitals and rural clinics, to routinely deliver risk-based screening for enhancing LC early detection in broader populations. METHODS: We created a standardized data set of health factors from 1397 patients with LC and 1448 control patients, all aged 30 years and older, including both smokers and nonsmokers, from a hospital's electronic medical record system. Initially, a data-centric ML approach was used to create inclusive ML models for risk prediction from all available health factors. Subsequently, a quantitative distribution of LC health factors was used in feature engineering to refine the models into a more practical model with fewer variables. RESULTS: The initial inclusive 250-variable XGBoost model for LC risk prediction achieved performance metrics of 0.86 recall, 0.90 precision, and 0.89 accuracy. Post feature refinement, a practical 29-variable XGBoost model was developed, displaying performance metrics of 0.80 recall, 0.82 precision, and 0.82 accuracy. This model met the criteria for initializing the ML-LHS unit for risk-based, inclusive LC screening within clinical research networks. CONCLUSIONS: This study designed an innovative ML-LHS unit for a clinical research network, aiming to sustainably provide inclusive LC screening to all at-risk populations. It developed an inclusive and practical XGBoost model from hospital electronic medical record data, capable of initializing such an ML-LHS unit for community and rural clinics. The anticipated deployment of this ML-LHS unit is expected to significantly improve LC-screening rates and early detection among broader populations, including those typically overlooked by existing screening guidelines.

Prediction and validation of mild cognitive impairment in occupational dust exposure population based on machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Workers exposed to dust for extended periods may experience varying degrees of cognitive impairment. However, limited research exists on the associated risk factors. This study aims to identify key variables using machine learning algorithms (ML) and develop a model to predict the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment in miners. METHODS: A total of 1938 miners were included in the study. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were employed to identify independent risk factors for cognitive impairment among miners. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in an 8:2 ratio of 1550 and 388 individuals, respectively. An additional group of 351 miners was collected as a test set for cognitive impairment assessment. Seven machine learning algorithms, including XGBoost, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Complement Naive Bayes, Multi-layer Perceptron, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbors, were used to establish a predictive model for mild cognitive impairment in the dust-exposed population, based on baseline characteristics of the workers. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC), and the XGBoost model was further explained using the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) package. Cognitive function assessments using rank sum tests were conducted to compare differences in cognitive domains between the mild cognitive impairment group and the normal group. RESULTS: Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that education level, Age, Work years, SSRS (Self-Rating Scale for Stress), and HAMA (Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale) were independent risk factors for cognitive impairment among dust-exposed workers. Comparative analysis of the performance of the seven machine learning algorithms demonstrated that XGBoost (training set: AUC=0.959, validation set: AUC=0.795) and Logistic Regression (training set: AUC=0.818, validation set: AUC=0.816) models exhibited superior predictive performance. Results from the test set showed that the AUC of the XGBoost model (AUC=0.913) outperformed the Logistic Regression model (AUC=0.778). Miners with mild cognitive impairment exhibited significant impairments (p<0.05) in visual-spatial abilities, attention, abstract thinking, and memory areas. CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms can predict the risk of cognitive impairment in this population, with the XGBoost algorithm showing the best performance. The developed model can guide the implementation of appropriate preventive measures for dust-exposed workers.

Validation of endoplasmic reticulum stress-related gene signature to predict prognosis and immune landscape of patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide, with the incidence increasing each year. It is crucial to improve the prognosis of patients who have lung cancer. Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) accounts for the majority of lung cancer. Though its prognostic significance in NSCLC has not been often documented, Endoplasmic Reticulum (ER) stress has been identified to be implicated in tumour malignant behaviours and resistance to treatment. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to develop a gene profile linked to ER stress that could be applied to predictive and risk assessment for non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS: Data from 1014 NSCLC patients were sourced from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, integrating clinical and Ribonucleic Acid (RNA) information. Diverse analytical techniques were utilized to identify ERS-associated genes associated with patients' prognoses. These techniques included Kaplan-Meier analysis, univariate Cox regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression analysis (LASSO) regression, and Pearson correlation analysis. Using a risk score model obtained from multivariate Cox analysis, a nomogram was created and validated to classify patients into high- and low-risk groups. The study employed the CIBERSORT algorithm and Single-Sample Gene Set Eenrichment Analysis (ssGSEA) to investigate the tumour immune microenvironment. We used the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) database and R tools to identify medicines that could be responsive. RESULTS: Four genes - FABP5, C5AR1, CTSL, and LTA4H - were chosen to create the risk model. Overall Survival (OS) was considerably lower (P< 0.05) in the high-risk group. When it came to predictive accuracy, the risk model outperformed clinical considerations. Several medication types that are sensitive to high-risk groups were chosen. CONCLUSION: Our study has produced a gene signature associated with ER stress that may be employed to forecast the prognosis and therapeutic response of non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Association of the Triglyceride-Glucose Index With Resistant Hypertension and a Nomogram Model Construction.

BACKGROUND: Resistant hypertension (RH) remains one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This study aims to investigate the association between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and RH incidence in patients with hypertension and to construct a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of RH. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1635 patients initially diagnosed with hypertension at the Affiliated Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from August 2019 to August 2021. Patients were followed up for a median of 31 months, with 373 cases (22.81%) developing RH. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariable Cox regression analysis identified the TyG index as the strongest predictor of RH (hazard ratio, 5.472 [95% CI, 4.028-7.433]; P<0.001). Consistent results were also observed in subgroup analyses across different ages and sexes. In addition to the TyG index, other independent risk factors, including uric acid, age, and the apnea-hypopnea index, were noted. A nomogram model was subsequently developed using these risk factors, and including the TyG index notably enhanced the diagnostic effectiveness of the model in predicting the occurrence of RH. CONCLUSIONS: The TyG index appears to be a potential predictor of RH in patients with hypertension, indicating that insulin resistance might be an important factor in the development and progression of RH.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with amanita phalloides poisoning.

Amanita phalloides poisoning, renowned for its high mortality rates, is one of the most serious food safety issue in certain regions worldwide. Assessment of prognosis and development of more efficacious therapeutic strategies are critical importance for amanita phalloides poisoning patients. The aim of the study is to establish a nomogram to predict the clinical outcome of amanita phalloides poisoning patients based on the independent risk factor for prognosis. Herein, between January 2013 and September 2023, a cohort of 149 patients diagnosed with amanita phalloides poisoning was enrolled and randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts, comprising 102 and 47 patients, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for morality of amanita phalloides poisoning patients in training cohort. Subsequently, a nomogram model was constructed to visually display the risk prediction model. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was verified by the validation cohort. The C index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plots were used to assessed the performance of nomogram. The clinical utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). In the present study, the results showed that hepatic encephalopathy (HE), upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB), AST, and PT were the independent risk factors associated with the mortality of amantia phalloides poisoning patients. We constructed a new nomogram to evaluate the probability of death induced by amantia phalloides poisoning. The AUC for the prediction accuracy of the nomogram was 0.936 for the training cohort and 0.929 for the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probability matched the actual likelihood. The results of the DCA suggested that the nomogram has a good potential for clinical application. In summary, we developed a new nomogram to assess the probability of mortality for amanita phalloides poisoning patients. This nomogram might facilitate clinicians in making more efficacious treatment strategies for patients with amanita phalloides poisoning.

Identification of endoplasmic reticulum stress-associated genes and subtypes for predicting risk signature and depicting immune features in inflammatory bowel disease.

Endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) becomes a significant factor in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), like Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Our research was aimed at identifying molecular markers to enhance our understanding of ERS and inflammation in IBD, recognizing risk factors and high-risk groups at the molecular level, and developing a predictive model on the grounds of based on ERS-associated genes. This research adopted the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and logistic regression to build a predictive model, and categorized IBD patients into high- and low-risk groups, and then identified four gene clusters. Our key findings included a significant increase in drug target gene expression in high-risk groups, notable discrepancies in immune levels, and functions between high-risk and low-risk groups. Notably, the TAP1 gene emerged as a strong predictor with the highest diagnostic value (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.941). TAP1 encodes proteins required for antigenic peptide transfer across the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane, and its potential as a diagnostic marker and therapeutic target is reflected by its overexpression in IBD tissues. Our study established a new ERS-associated gene model which could forecast the risk, immunological status, and treatment efficacy of patients with IBD. These findings suggest potential targets for personalized therapy and highlight the significance of ERS in the etiology and therapy of IBD. Future studies should explore the therapeutic potential of targeting TAP1 and other ERS-related genes for IBD management.

Predictive Model of Internal Bleeding in Elderly Aspirin Users Using XGBoost Machine Learning.

Objective: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for assessing internal bleeding risk in elderly aspirin users using machine learning. Methods: A total of 26,030 elderly aspirin users (aged over 65) were retrospective included in the study. Data on patient demographics, clinical features, underlying diseases, medical history, and laboratory examinations were collected from Affiliated Dongyang Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. Patients were randomly divided into two groups, with a 7:3 ratio, for model development and internal validation, respectively. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and multivariate logistic regression were employed to develop prediction models. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical impact curve (CIC), and net reduction curve (NRC). Results: The XGBoost model exhibited the highest AUC among all models. It consisted of six clinical variables: HGB, PLT, previous bleeding, gastric ulcer, cerebral infarction, and tumor. A visual nomogram was developed based on these six variables. In the training dataset, the model achieved an AUC of 0.842 (95% CI: 0.829-0.855), while in the test dataset, it achieved an AUC of 0.820 (95% CI: 0.800-0.840), demonstrating good discriminatory performance. The calibration curve analysis revealed that the nomogram model closely approximated the ideal curve. Additionally, the DCA curve, CIC, and NRC demonstrated favorable clinical net benefit for the nomogram model. Conclusion: This study successfully developed a predictive model to estimate the risk of bleeding in elderly aspirin users. This model can serve as a potential useful tool for clinicians to estimate the risk of bleeding in elderly aspirin users and make informed decisions regarding their treatment and management.

Development and validation of a machine-learning model for predicting postoperative pneumonia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Pneumonia is a common postoperative complication in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), which is associated with poor prognosis and increased mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for postoperative pneumonia (POP) in patients with aSAH. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 308 patients with aSAH who underwent surgery at the Neurosurgery Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and lasso regression analysis were used to analyze the risk factors for POP. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the constructed model. Finally, the effectiveness of modeling these six variables in different machine learning methods was investigated. In our patient cohort, 23.4% (n = 72/308) of patients experienced POP. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression analysis and lasso regression analysis revealed age, Hunt-Hess grade, mechanical ventilation, leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, and platelet count as independent risk factors for POP. Subsequently, these six factors were used to build the final model. We found that age, Hunt-Hess grade, mechanical ventilation, leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, and platelet count were independent risk factors for POP in patients with aSAH. Through validation and comparison with other studies and machine learning models, our novel predictive model has demonstrated high efficacy in effectively predicting the likelihood of pneumonia during the hospitalization of aSAH patients.

Development and Validation of a Risk Predictive Model for Small Intracranial Aneurysms in Adults Over a Five-Year Period.

Objective The optimal management of a small intracranial aneurysm (sIA) remains a challenge due to the lack of a size-specific risk predictive model for aneurysm rupture. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram-based risk predictive model for sIA. Methods A total of 382 patients harboring 215 ruptured and 167 unruptured small intracranial aneurysms (uSIAs) (≤ 7 mm) were recruited and divided into training and validation cohorts. Risk factors for the construction of a nomogram were selected from clinical and aneurysmal features by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression. The nomogram for risk of rupture was evaluated in both the training and validation cohorts for discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results Hyperlipidemia (odds ratio (OR)=2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.322~5.956, P=0.008), the presence of a daughter dome (OR=3.068, 95%CI=1.311~7.598, P=0.012), larger size-to-neck ratio (SN) (OR=1.807, 95%CI=1.131~3.063, P=0.021) and size ratio (SR) (OR=2.221, 95%CI=1.262~4.025, P=0.007) were selected as independent risk factors for sIA rupture and used for construction of nomogram. Internal validation by bootstrap sampling showed the Concordance index (C index) of 0.756 for the nomogram. The calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a P value of 0.847, indicating the model was well-fitted. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the predictive model has good clinical usefulness, providing net benefits across a range of threshold probabilities, thus supporting its application in clinical decision-making. Conclusion The risk prediction model can reliably predict the risk of sIA rupture, which may provide an important reference for optimizing the therapeutic strategy.

Development and validation of a predictive model for tumor lysis syndrome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Tumor lysis syndrome (TLS) frequently manifests shortly after induction chemotherapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), with the potential for swift progression. This study endeavored to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of TLS, utilizing clinical indicators present at the time of ALL diagnosis. METHODS: We retrospectively gathered data from 2243 patients with ALL, spanning December 2008 to December 2021, utilizing the clinical research big data platform of the National Center for Clinical Research on Children's Health and Diseases. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method was employed to filter variables and identify predictors, followed by the application of multivariate logistic regression to construct the nomogram. RESULTS: The LASSO regression identified six critical variables among ALL patients, upon which a nomogram was subsequently constructed. Multifactorial logistic regression revealed that an elevated white blood cell count (WBC), serum phosphorus <2.1 mmol/L, potassium <3.5 mmol/L, aspartate transaminase (AST) ≥50 U/L, uric acid (UA) ≥476µmol/L, and the presence of acute kidney injury (AKI) at the time of initial diagnosis were significant risk factors for the development of TLS in ALL patients (P<0.05). The predictive model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.824 [95 % CI (0.783, 0.865)], with an internal validation AUC of 0.859 [95 % CI (0.806, 0.912)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test confirmed the model's robustness (P=0.687 for the training cohort; P=0.888 for the validation cohort). Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the predictive model provided substantial clinical benefit across threshold probabilities ranging from 10 % to 70 %. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram incorporating six predictive variables holds significant potential for accurately forecasting TLS in pediatric patients with ALL.

Establishing a nomogram for predicting necrotizing enterocolitis in premature infants: A retrospective multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To construct a nomogram for predicting necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm infants. METHODS: A total of 4,724 preterm infants who were admitted into 8 hospitals between April 2019 and September 2020 were initially enrolled this retrospective multicenter cohort study. Finally, 1,092 eligible cases were divided into training set and test set based on a 7:3 ratio. A univariate logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the variables between the two groups. Stepwise backward regression, LASSO regression, and Boruta feature selection were utilized in the multivariate analysis to identify independent risk factors. Then a nomogram model was constructed based on the identified risk factors. RESULTS: Risk factors for NEC included gestational diabetes mellitus, gestational age, small for gestational age, patent ductus arteriosus, septicemia, red blood cell transfusion, intravenous immunoglobulin, severe feeding intolerance, and absence of breastfeeding. The nomogram model developed based on these factors showed well discriminative ability. Calibration and decision curve analysis curves confirmed the good consistency and clinical utility of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram model with strong discriminative ability, consistency, and clinical utility for predicting NEC. This model could be valuable for the early prediction of preterm infants at risk of developing NEC.

An overview of statistical methods for biomarkers relevant to early clinical development of cancer immunotherapies.

Over the last decade, a new paradigm for cancer therapies has emerged which leverages the immune system to act against the tumor. The novel mechanism of action of these immunotherapies has also introduced new challenges to drug development. Biomarkers play a key role in several areas of early clinical development of immunotherapies including the demonstration of mechanism of action, dose finding and dose optimization, mitigation and prevention of adverse reactions, and patient enrichment and indication prioritization. We discuss statistical principles and methods for establishing the prognostic, predictive aspect of a (set of) biomarker and for linking the change in biomarkers to clinical efficacy in the context of early development studies. The methods discussed are meant to avoid bias and produce robust and reproducible conclusions. This review is targeted to drug developers and data scientists interested in the strategic usage and analysis of biomarkers in the context of immunotherapies.

Development and validation of frailty risk prediction model for elderly patients with coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the influential factors of frailty in elderly patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for this population, and validate its predictive performance. METHODS: A total of 592 elderly patients with CHD were conveniently selected and enrolled from 3 tertiary hospitals, 5 secondary hospitals, and 3 community health service centers in China between October 2022 and January 2023. Data collection involved the use of the general information questionnaire, the Frail scale, and the instrumental ability of daily living assessment scale. And the patients were categorized into two groups based on frailty, and χ2 test as well as logistic regression analysis were used to identify and determine the influencing factors of frailty. The nomograph prediction model for elderly patients with CHD was developed using R software (version 4.2.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were employed to assess the predictive performance of the model. Additionally, the Bootstrap resampling method was utilized to validate the model and generate the calibration curve of the prediction model. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty in elderly patients with CHD was 30.07%. The multiple factor analysis revealed that poor health status (OR = 28.169)/general health status (OR = 18.120), age (OR = 1.046), social activities (OR = 0.673), impaired instrumental ability of daily living (OR = 2.384) were independent risk factors for frailty (all P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the nomograph prediction model was 0.847 (95% CI: 0.809 ~ 0.878, P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 0.801, and specificity of 0.793; the Hosmer- Lemeshow χ2 value was 12.646 (P = 0.125). The model validation results indicated that the C value of 0.839(95% CI: 0.802 ~ 0.879) and Brier score of 0.139, demonstrating good consistency between predicted and actual values. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of frailty is high among elderly patients with CHD, and it is influenced by various factors such as health status, age, lack of social participation, and impaired ability of daily life. These factors have certain predictive value for identifying frailty early and intervention in elderly patients with CHD.

Integrating clinical and biochemical markers: a novel nomogram for predicting lacunes in cerebral small vessel disease.

Background: Lacunes, a characteristic feature of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD), are critical public health concerns, especially in the aging population. Traditional neuroimaging techniques often fall short in early lacune detection, prompting the need for more precise predictive models. Methods: In this retrospective study, 587 patients from the Neurology Department of the Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University who underwent cranial MRI were assessed. A nomogram for predicting lacune incidence was developed using LASSO regression and binary logistic regression analysis for variable selection. The nomogram's performance was quantitatively assessed using AUC-ROC, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) in both training (n = 412) and testing (n = 175) cohorts. Results: Independent predictors identified included age, gender, history of stroke, carotid atherosclerosis, hypertension, creatinine, and homocysteine levels. The nomogram showed an AUC-ROC of 0.814 (95% CI: 0.791-0.870) for the training set and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.843) for the testing set. Calibration and DCA corroborated the model's clinical value. Conclusion: This study introduces a clinically useful nomogram, derived from binary logistic regression, that significantly enhances the prediction of lacunes in patients undergoing brain MRI for various indications, potentially advancing early diagnosis and intervention. While promising, its retrospective design and single-center context are limitations that warrant further research, including multi-center validation.

A Predictive Model of Pressure Injury in Children Undergoing Living Donor Liver Transplantation Based on Machine Learning Algorithm.

AIMS: The aim of our study was to formulate and validate a prediction model using machine learning algorithms to forecast the risk of pressure injuries (PIs) in children undergoing living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. METHODS: The research was carried out at China's largest paediatric liver transplantation centre. A total of 438 children who underwent LDLT between June 2021 and December 2022 constituted the study cohort. The dataset was partitioned randomly into 70% for training datasets (306 cases) and 30% for testing datasets (132 cases). Utilising four machine learning algorithms-Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and eXtreme Gradient Boosting-we identified risk factors and constructed predictive models. RESULTS: Out of 438 children, 42 developed PIs, yielding an incidence rate of 9.6%. Notably, 94% of these cases were categorised as Stage 1, and 54% were localised on the occiput. Upon evaluating the four prediction models, the Decision Tree model emerged as the most effective. The primary contributors to pressure injury in the Decision Tree model were identified as operation time, intraoperative corticosteroid administration, preoperative skin protection measures and preoperative skin conditions. A visualisation elucidating the logical inference process for the 10 variables within the Decision Tree model was presented. Ultimately, based on the Decision Tree model, a predictive system was developed. CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms facilitate the identification of crucial factors, enabling the creation of an effective Decision Tree model to forecast pressure injury development in children undergoing LDLT. IMPACT: With this predictive model at their disposal, nurses can assess the pressure injury risk level in children more intuitively. Subsequently, they can implement tailored preventive strategies to mitigate the occurrence of PIs. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Paediatric patients contributed electronic health records datasets.