Spatiotemporal analysis of equine infectious anemia and prediction of risk areas in Europe.

Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA) is a vector-borne persistent viral infection in equine animals. The EIA is characterized by recurrent fever, thrombocytopenia, depression, anemia, rapid weight loss, and lower body edema. Control of EIA is achieved through the elimination or isolation of infected animals, resulting in significant economic losses. In recent years, many countries in Europe have experienced outbreaks of EIA, which could potentially develop into a new wave of epidemic and pose a significant threat to the healthy development of the equine industry. This study utilized spatiotemporal analysis techniques and ecological niche modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical EIA outbreaks and predict risk areas for EIA occurrence in Europe. Spatiotemporal analysis results indicate that from 2005 to 2023, the EIA outbreaks in Europe exhibit five significant spatiotemporal clusters, with hotspots concentrated in southeastern France and northwestern Italy. Ecological niche modeling reveals that western, central, and southern Europe are high-risk areas for EIA outbreaks. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and horse density are important variables that influence the occurrence of EIA. The results of this study can provide decision-makers with valuable insights, helping with EIA monitoring and resource allocation.

Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases.

Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.

Epidemiological Analyses of the First Incursion of the Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Serotype 8 in Tunisia, 2021-2022.

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is a non-contagious arthropod-transmitted viral disease and a World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH)-listed disease of domestic and wild ruminants since 2008. EHDV is transmitted among susceptible animals by a few species of midges of genus Culicoides. During the fall of 2021, a large outbreak caused by the epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), identified as serotype 8, was reported in Tunisian dairy and beef farms with Bluetongue virus (BTV)-like clinical signs. The disease was detected later in the south of Italy, in Spain, in Portugal and, more recently, in France, where it caused severe infections in cattle. This was the first evidence of EHDV-8 circulation outside Australia since 1982. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological situation of the 2021-2022 EHDV outbreaks reported in Tunisia, providing a detailed description of the spatiotemporal evolution of the disease. We attempted to identify the eco-climatic factors associated with infected areas using generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results demonstrated that environmental factors mostly associated with the presence of C. imicola, such as digital elevation model (DEM), slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and night-time land surface temperature (NLST)) were by far the most explanatory variables for EHD repartition cases in Tunisia that may have consequences in neighboring countries, both in Africa and Europe through the spread of infected vectors. The risk maps elaborated could be useful for disease control and prevention strategies.

Indoor radon risk mapping of the Canary Islands using a methodology for volcanic islands combining geological information and terrestrial gamma radiation data.

Within the framework of the recent approval of the National Plan Against Radon by the Council of Ministers of the Spanish Government, one of its five axes focuses on the delimitation of priority action areas. In line with this objective, this paper presents the indoor radon risk maps of the Canary Islands. Due to the volcanic origin of the Canary Islands, there is a great deal of geological heterogeneity in the soils on which buildings settle, making it very difficult to delimit radon-risk areas in the process of creating maps. Following a methodology developed in previous works for a study area formed of a set of representative municipalities, this paper presents radon risk maps of the Canary Islands based on lithostratigraphic information and high-resolution terrestrial gamma radiation maps. The goodness of fit of these maps is verified based on a statistical analysis of indoor radon concentration measurements carried out at representative building enclosures. In order to analyse the level of risk to the population, these maps were combined with built up areas (urban fabric) maps and estimations of the annual effective doses due to radon was obtained by applying a dosimetric model. This methodology improves the capability to delimit indoor radon risk areas, with a greater margin of safety. In this respect, it is estimated that areas classified as low risk have indoor radon concentrations 41 % below the current reference level of 300 Bq/m3 established by national regulations in compliance with the precepts laid down in the European EURATOM Directive.

Multiparametric analysis for the determination of radon potential areas in buildings on different soils of volcanic origin.

The transposition of the European EURATOM directive into the regulations of the different member states of the European Union involved governments making great efforts to define priority action maps against indoor radon exposure in buildings over a short time period. In Spain, the Technical Building Code established 300 Bq/m3 as a reference level and set up a classification of municipalities in which remediation measures should be adopted for radon exposure in buildings. Oceanic volcanic islands, such as the Canary Islands, present high geological heterogeneity in a small space due to their volcanic origin. This variability poses a challenge to the elaboration of radiological risk maps, which makes it necessary to have a high density of data to collect local variations. This paper presents a methodology to obtain accurate radon risk maps based on geological criteria and terrestrial gamma radiation. The predictive efficiency of these maps is statistically verified using indoor radon concentration data measured in buildings. Other radiological variables, which are commonly used as criteria for radon risk prediction found in the literature, were also applied, such as the geogenic radon potential and the activity concentration of natural radioisotopes in soils. The higher resolution of the maps obtained allows for a more detailed classification of radon risk zones in the study area than the current risk maps published in the Spanish building regulations.

Geographical variation in hepatitis C-related severe liver disease and patient risk factors: a multicentre cross-sectional study.

Despite promising steps towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the UK, several indicators provide a cause for concern for future disease burden. We aimed to improve understanding of geographical variation in HCV-related severe liver disease and historic risk factor prevalence among clinic attendees in England and Scotland. We used metadata from 3829 HCV-positive patients consecutively enrolled into HCV Research UK from 48 hospital centres in England and Scotland during 2012-2014. Employing mixed-effects statistical modelling, several independent risk factors were identified: age 46-59 y (ORadj 3.06) and ≥60 y (ORadj 5.64) relative to <46 y, male relative to female sex (ORadj 1.58), high BMI (ORadj 1.73) and obesity (ORadj 2.81) relative to normal BMI, diabetes relative to no diabetes (ORadj 2.75), infection with HCV genotype (GT)-3 relative to GT-1 (ORadj 1.75), route of infection through blood products relative to injecting drug use (ORadj 1.40), and lower odds were associated with black ethnicity (ORadj 0.31) relative to white ethnicity. A small proportion of unexplained variation was attributed to differences between hospital centres and local health authorities. Our study provides a baseline measure of historic risk factor prevalence and potential geographical variation in healthcare provision, to support ongoing monitoring of HCV-related disease burden and the design of risk prevention measures.

Integrated human behavior and tick risk maps to prioritize Lyme disease interventions using a 'One Health' approach.

Lyme disease (LD) risk is emerging rapidly in Canada due to range expansion of its tick vectors, accelerated by climate change. The risk of contracting LD varies geographically due to variability in ecological characteristics that determine the hazard (the densities of infected host-seeking ticks) and vulnerability of the human population determined by their knowledge and adoption of preventive behaviors. Risk maps are commonly used to support public health decision-making on Lyme disease, but the ability of the human public to adopt preventive behaviors is rarely taken into account in their development, which represents a critical gap. The objective of this work was to improve LD risk mapping using an integrated social-behavioral and ecological approach to: (i) compute enhanced integrated risk maps for prioritization of interventions and (ii) develop a spatially-explicit assessment tool to examine the relative contribution of different risk factors. The study was carried out in the Estrie region located in southern Québec. The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, infected with the agent of LD is widespread in Estrie and as a result, regional LD incidence is the highest in the province. LD knowledge and behaviors in the population were measured in a cross-sectional health survey conducted in 2018 reaching 10,790 respondents in Estrie. These data were used to create an index for the social-behavioral component of risk in 2018. Local Empirical Bayes estimator technique were used to better quantify the spatial variance in the levels of adoption of LD preventive activities. For the ecological risk analysis, a tick abundance model was developed by integrating data from ongoing long-term tick surveillance programs from 2007 up to 2018. Social-behavioral and ecological components of the risk measures were combined to create vulnerability index maps and, with the addition of human population densities, prioritization index maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association of high-risk areas with the current spatial distribution of human cases of LD and reported tick exposure. Our results demonstrated that social-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk have markedly different distributions within Estrie. The occurrence of human LD cases or reported tick exposure in a municipality was positively associated with tick density and the prioritization risk index (p < 0.001). This research is a second step towards a more comprehensive integrated LD risk assessment approach, examining social-behavioral risk factors that interact with ecological risk factors to influence the management of emerging tick-borne diseases, an approach that could be applied more widely to vector-borne and zoonotic diseases.

Combining theoretical concepts and Geographic Information System (GIS) to highlight source, risk, and hotspots of sedimentary PAHs: A case study of Chabahar Bay.

Sedimentary PAHs are regionalized variables and their levels, source, and ecological hazards must be discussed in relation to their spatial locations. Our research targeted GIS and Chabahar Bay-Iran to trace spatial variability of PAHs, improve the diagnostic ratios and receptor models in source identification, and determine hotspot of PAH-originated hazards. The entropy Voronoi map distinguished an "entropy strip" in which ∑22PAHs levels increased sharply. Different molecular signatures were individually interpolated and the indicative ratios of distinctive sources were extracted and summed by GIS. The resulting code map reduced potential disagreement among molecular signatures and highlighted the areas where petroleum inputs are prevalent. PCA-MLR analysis extracted three potential sources including fossil fuel combustion (54.36%), petrogenic inputs (29.03%), and vehicle exhaust emissions (16.61%). Interpolated risk layers were re-arranged and overlaid via Fuzzy Membership Functions. The obtained ''Fuzzy AND" map showed the hotspot of the study area in the vicinity of a seasonal estuary.

Áreas en riesgo para los mamíferos marinos en Colombia / Areas at risk for marine mammals in Colombia

Resumen Introducción: Los mamíferos marinos se ven afectados por diversas amenazas que deben identificarse para los esfuerzos de mitigación. Objetivo: Cuantificar visualmente las amenazas a los mamíferos marinos en Colombia e identificar acciones de mitigación. Métodos: Georreferenciamos las amenazas con base en la literatura, cubriendo 35 especies en el período 1991-2020, y las superpusimos en mapas de distribución de especies. Resultados: 22 especies presentaron al menos una amenaza. La captura incidental y las interacciones con los artes de pesca afectaron a 16 especies, seguidas de la captura directa (8 especies), el tráfico/tránsito de embarcaciones (6 especies) y la alteración de la física oceánica (6 especies). Las especies más afectadas, en cuanto a mayor diversidad de amenazas, son: ballena jorobada (Megaptera novaeangliae), manatí antillano del Caribe (Trichechus manatus), el tucuxi marino (Sotalia guianensis) y el delfín nariz de botella (Tursiops truncatus). Casi todo el territorio marino de Colombia presenta algún grado de riesgo para los mamíferos marinos. Las áreas de alto riesgo son Buenaventura, Guapi, Golfo de Cupica y Tumaco en el Pacífico; y Golfo de Urabá, Golfo de Darién, Golfo de Morrosquillo, frente a Barranquilla, Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta y Golfo de Coquivacoa en el Caribe. Conclusión: Los mamíferos marinos en Colombia se encuentran actualmente en riesgo debido a varias amenazas, especialmente relacionadas con actividades de pesca, caza/captura y transporte marítimo, principalmente en las zonas costeras. Se necesitan acciones urgentes de evaluación y gestión en las diez áreas de alto riesgo identificadas en este estudio.

Abstract Introduction: Marine mammals are affected by diverse threats that must be identified for mitigation efforts. Objective: To visually quantify threats to marine mammals in Colombia, and to identify mitigation actions. Methods: We georeferenced threats based on the literature, covering 35 species in the period 1991-2020, and superimposed them on species range maps. Results: 22 species had at least one threat. Bycatch and interactions with fishing gear affected 16 species, followed by direct capture (8 species), vessel traffic/transit (6 species) and alteration of ocean physics (6 species). The most affected species, in terms of the greatest diversity of threats, are: humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), Caribbean West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), marine tucuxi (Sotalia guianensis) and bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Nearly all of Colombia's marine territory presents some degree of risk for marine mammals. High-risk areas are Buenaventura, Guapi, Cupica Gulf and Tumaco in the Pacific; and Urabá Gulf, Darién Gulf, Morrosquillo Gulf, off Barranquilla, Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta and Coquivacoa Gulf in the Caribbean. Conclusion: Marine mammals in Colombia are currently at risk due to several threats, especially related to fishing, hunting/capture and shipping activities, mainly in coastal areas. Urgent evaluation and management actions are needed in the ten high-risk areas identified in this study.

Impact of climate-driven temperature increase on inland aquaculture: Application to land-based production of common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.).

Climate change will expose the food-producing sector to a range of challenges. Inland aquaculture farms are particularly vulnerable, due to the difficulty in changing their location, and therefore require specific tools to predict the influence of direct and indirect effects on production, environment and economic feasibility. The objective of our study was to apply a simple set of models to produce a set of growth, risk and suitability maps for stakeholders within the common carp sector in Poland, to assist decision-making under two different scenarios of climate change: a moderate situation (RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (RCP 8.5). We used present (2000-2019) and future projections (2080-2099) for water surface temperature based on land surface temperature data from regionally downscaled climate models to draw maps to: (i) show optimal temperature conditions for carp growth, (ii) assess risk of disease outbreak caused by three important common carp pathogens: Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3), carp oedema virus (CEV) and spring viremia of carp (SVCV) and (iii) predict potential suitability changes of carp farming in Poland. The study identified areas with the most and least favourable temperature conditions for carp growth, as well as those areas with the highest/lowest number of days with suitable temperatures for virus infection. These suitability maps showed the combined effect of direct and indirect effects of climate change projections under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. The approach applied herein will be of use worldwide for analysing the risks of temperature increase to land-based aquaculture, and the results presented are important for carp farmers in Poland and elsewhere, industry in general, and government stakeholders, to understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the triple bottom line of people, planet, and profit.

Spatio-temporal patterns and risk factors of foot-and-mouth disease in Malawi between 1957 and 2019.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease causing short-term and long-term production losses and hindering local and international trade. To gain access to lucrative foreign markets and also improve local trade, there is a need to employ effective preventive and control strategies. Although FMD has been present in Malawi for over 60 years, little knowledge is available concerning the dynamics and drivers of FMD in the country. A modelling study based on retrospective data was conducted to establish the spatio-temporal distribution and determine the risk factors associated with FMD in Malawi. A retrospective space-time analysis was performed and a matched case-control study was carried out to investigate risk factors. The number of reported FMD outbreaks has descriptively increased after 2000 and the disease has spread to previously unaffected areas. Two significant spatio-temporal clusters of FMD were identified; one in the southern region and the other in the northern region. An analysis of only index cases (first detected locations) also detected two clusters with one in the northern region and the other in the southern region. Higher beef cattle density (p = 0.023), higher pig density (p = 0.043) and increased distance to wildlife protected areas (p = 0.036) were positively associated with the risk of FMD while increased distances to international borders (p = 0.008) and roads (p = 0.034) were associated with reduced risk of FMD. High FMD risk areas were observed in the southern and northern regions but not in the central region during the early years (1957-1981). The more recent increase in FMD risk at the end of the study period (2019) in the central region might be attributed to increases in livestock density in this region. These findings provide insight into the pattern of FMD occurrence that will promote informed decisions for the progressive control of FMD in the region.

Wolf-Hunting Dog Interactions in a Biodiversity Hot Spot Area in Northern Greece: Preliminary Assessment and Implications for Conservation in the Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli Forest National Park and Adjacent Areas.

Hunting dog depredation by wolves triggers retaliatory killing, with negative impacts on wildlife conservation. In the wider area of the Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli Forest National Park, reports on such incidents have increased lately. To investigate this conflict, we interviewed 56 affected hunters, conducted wolf trophic analysis, analyzed trends for 2010-2020, applied MAXENT models for risk-map creation, and GLMs to explore factors related to depredation levels. Losses averaged approximately one dog per decade and hunter showing a positive trend, while livestock depredations showed a negative trend. Wolves preyed mainly on wild prey, with dogs consisting of 5.1% of the winter diet. Low altitude areas, with low to medium livestock availability favoring wolf prey and game species, were the riskiest. Dogs were more vulnerable during hare hunting and attacks more frequent during wolf post-weaning season or in wolf territories with reproduction. Hunter experience and group hunting reduced losses. Wolves avoided larger breeds or older dogs. Making noise or closely keeping dogs reduced attack severity. Protective dog vests, risk maps, and enhancing wolf natural prey availability are further measures to be considered, along with a proper verification system to confirm and effectively separate wolf attacks from wild boar attacks, which were also common.

Occurrence and risk assessment of pesticides in a Mediterranean Basin with strong agricultural pressure (Guadiana Basin: Southern of Portugal).

The study aimed to assess the occurrence and the environmental risk of a group of 51 selected pesticides in the Guadiana Basin (a biodiversity hotspot, in the Mediterranean). The most abundant pesticides were bentazone and 2,4-D, while terbuthylazine together with terbutryn constituted the most ubiquitous pesticides. Eighteen out of the 38 pesticides detected are no longer approved in Europe, and 5 of them are included in the list of priority substances. The risk assessment showed that azinphos ethyl, diflufenican, irganol, imidacloprid, and oxadiazon occurred occasionally, but always in concentrations above their respective ecotoxicological threshold value. Contrary, bentazone, terbuthylazine, and terbutryn presented a high risk in most of the sampled locations and periods. The site-specific risk assessment showed a spatial and temporal pattern, with a higher risk occurring mainly in intermittent streams, in the drought period. The presence of pesticides banned from the EU market since 2009 showed the importance of improving the monitoring process, to identify the main sources of pollution and the fate of these emerging compounds. The results showed the need of implementing actions to improve the sustainable use of pesticides in agricultural areas, working with farmers and management entities to reduce the contamination of aquatic ecosystems. Transboundary water governance is also required to solve potential transboundary contamination problems.

Infection and risk factors of human and avian influenza in pigs in south China.

The coinfection of swine influenza (SI) strains and avian/human-source influenza strains in piggeries can contribute to the evolution of new influenza viruses with pandemic potential. This study analyzed surveillance data on SI in south China and explored the spatial predictor variables associated with different influenza infection scenarios in counties within the study area. Blood samples were collected from 7670 pigs from 534 pig farms from 2015 to 2017 and tested for evidence of infection with influenza strains from swine, human and avian sources. The herd prevalences for EA H1N1, H1N1pdm09, classic H1N1, HS-like H3N2, seasonal human H1N1 and avian influenza H9N2 were 88.5, 64.5, 60.3, 57.8, 12.9 and 10.3 %, respectively. Anthropogenic factors including detection frequency, chicken density, duck density, pig density and human population density were found to be better predictor variables for three influenza infection scenarios (infection with human strains, infection with avian strains, and coinfection with H9N2 avian strain and at least one swine strain) than were meteorological and geographical factors. Predictive risk maps generated for the four provinces in south China highlighted that the areas with a higher risk of the three infection scenarios were predominantly clustered in the delta area of the Pearl River in Guangdong province and counties surrounding Poyang Lake in Jiangxi province. Identification of higher risk areas can inform targeted surveillance for influenza in humans and pigs, helping public health authorities in designing risk-based SI control strategies to address the pandemic influenza threat in south China.

How useful are malaria risk maps at the country level? Perceptions of decision-makers in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Declining malaria prevalence and pressure on external funding have increased the need for efficiency in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Modelled Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) maps are increasingly becoming available and provide information on the epidemiological situation of countries. However, how these maps are understood or used for national malaria planning is rarely explored. In this study, the practices and perceptions of national decision-makers on the utility of malaria risk maps, showing prevalence of parasitaemia or incidence of illness, was investigated. METHODS: A document review of recent National Malaria Strategic Plans was combined with 64 in-depth interviews with stakeholders in Kenya, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The document review focused on the type of epidemiological maps included and their use in prioritising and targeting interventions. Interviews (14 Kenya, 17 Malawi, 27 DRC, 6 global level) explored drivers of stakeholder perceptions of the utility, value and limitations of malaria risk maps. RESULTS: Three different types of maps were used to show malaria epidemiological strata: malaria prevalence using a PfPR modelled map (Kenya); malaria incidence using routine health system data (Malawi); and malaria prevalence using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DRC). In Kenya the map was used to target preventative interventions, including long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), whilst in Malawi and DRC the maps were used to target in-door residual spraying (IRS) and LLINs distributions in schools. Maps were also used for operational planning, supply quantification, financial justification and advocacy. Findings from the interviews suggested that decision-makers lacked trust in the modelled PfPR maps when based on only a few empirical data points (Malawi and DRC). CONCLUSIONS: Maps were generally used to identify areas with high prevalence in order to implement specific interventions. Despite the availability of national level modelled PfPR maps in all three countries, they were only used in one country. Perceived utility of malaria risk maps was associated with the epidemiological structure of the country and use was driven by perceived need, understanding (quality and relevance), ownership and trust in the data used to develop the maps.

Identification of High-Risk Areas for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Central Luzon, Philippines.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a major problem in the poultry industry. It is highly contagious and is associated with a high mortality rate. The Philippines experienced an outbreak of avian influenza (AI) in 2017. As there is always a risk of re-emergence, efforts to manage disease outbreaks should be optimal. Linked to this is the need for an effective surveillance procedure to capture disease outbreaks at their early stage. Risk-based surveillance is the most effective and economical approach to outbreak management. This study evaluated the potential of commercial poultry farms in Central Luzon to transmit HPAI by calculating their respective reproductive ratios (R0). The reproductive number for each farm is based on the spatial kernel and the infectious period. A risk map has been created based on the calculated R0. There were 882 (76.63%) farms with R0 < 1. Farms with R0 ≥ 1 were all located in Pampanga Province. These farms were concentrated in the towns of San Luis (n = 12) and Candaba (n = 257). This study demonstrates the utility of mapping farm-level R0 estimates for informing HPAI risk management activities.

Geostatistical COVID-19 infection risk maps for Portugal.

The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has simultaneous time and space dynamics. This behaviour results from a complex combination of factors, including social ones, which lead to significant differences in the evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern between and within countries. Usually, spatial smoothing techniques are used to map health outcomes, and rarely uncertainty of the spatial predictions are assessed. As an alternative, we propose to apply direct block sequential simulation to model the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 infection risk in mainland Portugal. Given the daily number of infection data provided by the Portuguese Directorate-General for Health, the daily updates of infection rates are calculated by municipality and used as experimental data in the geostatistical simulation. The model considers the uncertainty/error associated with the size of each municipality's population. The calculation of daily updates of the infection risk maps results from the median model of one ensemble of 100 geostatistical realizations of daily updates of the infection risk. The ensemble of geostatistical realizations is also used to calculate the associated spatial uncertainty of the spatial prediction using the interquartile distance. The risk maps are updated daily and show the regions with greater risks of infection and the critical dynamics related to its development over time.

Lessons Learned From the Stakeholder Engagement in Research: Application of Spatial Analytical Tools in One Health Problems.

Stakeholder engagement in research is widely advocated as a tool to integrate diverse knowledge and perspectives in the management of health threats while addressing potential conflicts of interest. Although guidelines for stakeholder engagement exist in public health and environmental sciences, the feasibility of actionable decisions based on scientific analyses and the lessons learned from the stakeholder engagement in the process co-creation of knowledge have been rarely discussed in One Health literature and veterinary sciences. Risk maps and risk regionalization using spatiotemporal epidemiological/analytical tools are known to improve risk perception and communication. Risk maps are useful when informing policy and management decisions on quarantine, vaccination, and surveillance intended to prevent or control threats to human, animal, or environmental health interface (i.e., One Health). We hypothesized that researcher-stakeholder engagement throughout the research process could enhance the utility of risk maps; while identifying opportunities to improve data collection, analysis, interpretation, and, ultimately, implementation of scientific/evidence-based management and policy measures. Three case studies were conducted to test this process of co-creation of scientific knowledge, using spatiotemporal epidemiological approaches, all related to One Health problems affecting Minnesota. Our interpretation of the opportunities, challenges, and lessons learned from the process are summarized from both researcher and stakeholder perspectives. By sharing our experience we intend to provide an understanding of the expectations, realizations, and "good practices" we learned through this slow-moving iterative process of co-creation of knowledge. We hope this contribution benefits the planning of future transdisciplinary research related to risk map-based management of One Health problems.

Intelligent Driving Assistant Based on Road Accident Risk Map Analysis and Vehicle Telemetry.

Through the application of intelligent systems in driver assistance systems, the experience of traveling by road has become much more comfortable and safe. In this sense, this paper then reports the development of an intelligent driving assistant, based on vehicle telemetry and road accident risk map analysis, whose responsibility is to alert the driver in order to avoid risky situations that may cause traffic accidents. In performance evaluations using real cars in a real environment, the on-board intelligent assistant reproduced real-time audio-visual alerts according to information obtained from both telemetry and road accident risk map analysis. As a result, an intelligent assistance agent based on fuzzy reasoning was obtained, which supported the driver correctly in real-time according to the telemetry data, the vehicle environment and the principles of secure driving practices and transportation regulation laws. Experimental results and conclusions emphasizing the advantages of the proposed intelligent driving assistant in the improvement of the driving task are presented.

Endemic diseases of geochemical origin and methodological approaches toward their prevention and elimination.

A new approach to the study of diseases of geochemical origin is presented, which is based on the hypothesis that all such geochemical endemias were not possible in conditions of virgin biosphere and are products of human civilization. Two genetically different types of endemic diseases of geochemical origin are distinguished, each having a specifically spatial structure: (1) diseases of natural origin due to natural element deficiency or excess in the particular zones or areas; (2) diseases of anthropogenic origin related to chemical transformation of the environment in the course of agricultural or industrial production. Anthropogenically provoked diseases of geochemical nature always occur in conditions of already formed natural geochemical heterogeneity. As each type of the endemic disease has a peculiar structure of spatial distribution, the present health risk can be mapped as a genetically two-layer structure, characterizing deviation of the existing geochemical conditions from those ideal for specific species. Parameters of geochemical conditions, which are ideal for humans and domesticated species, should be sought within the areas with undisturbed soil cover, where these species have been formed in their present form. The hypothesis is tested on example of thyroid diseases observed in iodine-deficient areas affected by a nuclear accident with 131I fallout. The developed approach is believed to serve as a practical tool for monitoring and prevention of endemic diseases of geochemical origin.