Spatial analysis for interval-valued data.

Symbolic data analysis deals with complex data with symbolic objects, such as lists, histograms, and intervals. Spatial analysis for symbolic data is relatively underexplored. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a statistical framework for spatial interval-valued data (SIVD) analysis. We provide geostatistical methods for spatial prediction, predictive performance measure for prediction assessment, and visualization for mapping SIVD. The proposed methods are illustrated with both simulated and real examples.

Predicting suitable habitats for foraging and migration in Eastern Indian Ocean pygmy blue whales from satellite tracking data.

BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of animal occurrence in time and space are crucial for informing and implementing science-based management strategies for threatened species. METHODS: We compiled known, available satellite tracking data for pygmy blue whales in the Eastern Indian Ocean (n = 38), applied movement models to define low (foraging and reproduction) and high (migratory) move persistence underlying location estimates and matched these with environmental data. We then used machine learning models to identify the relationship between whale occurrence and environment, and predict foraging and migration habitat suitability in Australia and Southeast Asia. RESULTS: Our model predictions were validated by producing spatially varying accuracy metrics. We identified the shelf off the Bonney Coast, Great Australian Bight, and southern Western Australia as well as the slope off the Western Australian coast as suitable habitat for migration, with predicted foraging/reproduction suitable habitat in Southeast Asia region occurring on slope and in deep ocean waters. Suitable foraging habitat occurred primarily on slope and shelf break throughout most of Australia, with use of the continental shelf also occurring, predominanly in South West and Southern Australia. Depth of the water column (bathymetry) was consistently a top predictor of suitable habitat for most regions, however, dynamic environmental variables (sea surface temperature, surface height anomaly) influenced the probability of whale occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate suitable habitat is related to dynamic, localised oceanic processes that may occur at fine temporal scales or seasonally. An increase in the sample size of tagged whales is required to move towards developing more dynamic distribution models at seasonal and monthly temporal scales. Our validation metrics also indicated areas where further data collection is needed to improve model accuracy. This is of particular importance for pygmy blue whale management, since threats (e.g., shipping, underwater noise and artificial structures) from the offshore energy and shipping industries will persist or may increase with the onset of an offshore renewable energy sector in Australia.

How can we quantify, explain, and apply the uncertainty of complex soil maps predicted with neural networks?

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be a useful tool for complex questions that involve large amounts of data. Our use case of predicting soil maps with ANNs is in high demand by government agencies, construction companies, or farmers, given cost and time intensive field work. However, there are two main challenges when applying ANNs. In their most common form, deep learning algorithms do not provide interpretable predictive uncertainty. This means that properties of an ANN such as the certainty and plausibility of the predicted variables, rely on the interpretation by experts rather than being quantified by evaluation metrics validating the ANNs. Further, these algorithms have shown a high confidence in their predictions in areas geographically distant from the training area or areas sparsely covered by training data. To tackle these challenges, we use the Bayesian deep learning approach "last-layer Laplace approximation", which is specifically designed to quantify uncertainty into deep networks, in our explorative study on soil classification. It corrects the overconfident areas without reducing the accuracy of the predictions, giving us a more realistic uncertainty expression of the model's prediction. In our study area in southern Germany, we subdivide the soils into soil regions and as a test case we explicitly exclude two soil regions in the training area but include these regions in the prediction. Our results emphasize the need for uncertainty measurement to obtain more reliable and interpretable results of ANNs, especially for regions far away from the training area. Moreover, the knowledge gained from this research addresses the problem of overconfidence of ANNs and provides valuable information on the predictability of soil types and the identification of knowledge gaps. By analyzing regions where the model has limited data support and, consequently, high uncertainty, stakeholders can recognize the areas that require more data collection efforts.

Integrated assessment of potentially toxic elements in soil of the Kangdian metallogenic province: A two-point machine learning approach.

The accumulation of potentially toxic elements in soil poses significant risks to ecosystems and human well-being due to their inherent toxicity, widespread presence, and persistence. The Kangdian metallogenic province, famous for its iron-copper deposits, faces soil pollution challenges due to various potentially toxic elements. This study explored a comprehensive approach that combinescombines the spatial prediction by the two-point machine learning method and ecological-health risk assessment to quantitatively assess the comprehensive potential ecological risk index (PERI), the total hazard index (THI) and the total carcinogenic risk (TCR). The proportions of copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) concentrations exceeding the risk screening values (RSVs) were 15.03%, 5.1%, 3.72%, 1.24%, 1.1%, and 0.13%, respectively, across the 725 collected samples. Spatial prediction revealed elevated levels of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, mercury (Hg), and Mn near the mining sites. Potentially toxic elements exert a slight impact on soil, some regions exhibit moderate to significant ecological risk, particularly in the southwest. Children face higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks compared to adults. Mercury poses the highest ecological risk, while chromium (Cr) poses the greatest health hazard for all populations. Oral ingestion represents the highest non-oncogenic and oncogenic risks in all age groups. Adults faced acceptable non-carcinogenic risks. Children in the southwest region confront higher health risks, both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic, from mining activities. Urgent measures are vital to mitigate Hg and Cr contamination while promoting handwashing practices is essential to minimize health risks.

Characteristics of spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of biological soil crusts on the Loess Plateau, China.

Biological soil crust (biocrust) is widely distributed on the Loess Plateau and plays multiple roles in regulating ecosystem stability and multifunctionality. Few reports are available on the distribution characteristics of biocrust in this region, which limits the assessment of its ecological functions. Based on 388 sampling points in different precipitation zones on the Loess Plateau from 2009 to 2020, we analyzed the coverage, composition, and influencing factors of biocrust across different durations since land abandonment, precipitation levels, topography (slope aspect and position), and utilization of abandoned slopelands (shrubland, forest, and grassland). On this base, with the assistance of machine learning and spatial modeling methods, we generated a distribution map of biocrust and its composition at a resolution of 250 m × 250 m, and analyzed the spatial distribution of biocrust on the Loess Plateau. The results showed that the average biocrust coverage in the woodlands and grasslands was 47.3%, of which cyanobacterial crust accounted for 25.5%, moss crust 19.7%, and lichen crust 2.1%. There were significant temporal and spatial variations. Temporally, the coverage of biocrust in specific regions fluctuated with the extension of the abandoned durations and coverage of cyanobacterial crust, while moss crust showed a reverse pattern. In addition, the coverage of biocrust in the wet season was slightly higher than that in the dry season within a year. Spatially, the coverage of biocrusts on the sandy lands area on the Loess Plateau was higher and dominated by cyanobacterial crusts, while the coverage was lower in the hilly and gully area. Precipitation and utilization of abandoned land were the major factors driving biocrust coverage and composition, while slope direction and position did not show obvious effect. In addition, soil organic carbon content, pH, and texture were related to the distribution of biocrust. This study uncovered the spatial and temporal variability of biocrust distribution, which might provide important data support for the research and management of biocrust in the Loess Plateau region.

Spatial mapping of land susceptibility to dust emissions using optimization of attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning (TabNet) model.

Dust pollution poses significant risks to human health, air quality, and food safety, necessitating the identification of dust occurrence and the development of dust susceptibility maps (DSMs) to mitigate its effects. This research aims to detect dust occurrence using satellite images and prepare a DSM for Bushehr province, Iran, by enhancing the attentive interpretable tabular learning (TabNet) model through three swarm-based metaheuristic algorithms: particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey wolf optimizer (GWO), and hunger games search (HGS). A spatial database incorporating dust occurrence areas was created using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2002 to 2022, including 15 influential criteria related to climate, soil, topography, and land cover. Four models were employed for modeling and DSM generation: TabNet, TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet-HGS. Evaluation of the modeling results using performance metrics indicated that the TabNet-HGS model outperformed the other models in both training (mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.055, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.1, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.959), and testing (MAE = 0.063, RMSE = 0.114, R2 = 0.947) data. Following TabNet-HGS, the TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet models demonstrated progressively lower accuracy. The validation of the DSM was performed by assessing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, revealing that the TabNet-HGS, TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet models exhibited the highest modeling accuracy, with corresponding area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.994, 0.986, 0.98, and 0.832, respectively. These results highlight the enhanced accuracy of dust susceptibility modeling achieved by integrating swarm-based metaheuristic algorithms with the TabNet model. The dust susceptibility map provides valuable insights into the sources, pathways, and impacts of dust particles on the environment and human health in the study area.

Forest fire susceptibility assessment under small sample scenario: A semi-supervised learning approach using transductive support vector machine.

Forest fires threaten global ecosystems, socio-economic structures, and public safety. Accurately assessing forest fire susceptibility is critical for effective environmental management. Supervised learning methods dominate this assessment, relying on a substantial dataset of forest fire occurrences for model training. However, obtaining precise forest fire location data remains challenging. To address this issue, semi-supervised learning emerges as a viable solution, leveraging both a limited set of collected samples and unlabeled data containing environmental factors for training. Our study employed the transductive support vector machine (TSVM), a key semi-supervised learning method, to assess forest fire susceptibility in scenarios with limited samples. We conducted a comparative analysis, evaluating its performance against widely used supervised learning methods. The assessment area for forest fire susceptibility lies in Dayu County, Jiangxi Province, China, renowned for its vast forest cover and frequent fire incidents. We analyzed and generated maps depicting forest fire susceptibility, evaluating prediction accuracies for both supervised and semi-supervised learning methods across various small sample scenarios (e.g., 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32 samples). Our findings indicate that TSVM exhibits superior prediction accuracy compared to supervised learning with limited samples, yielding more plausible forest fire susceptibility maps. For instance, at sample sizes of 4, 16, and 28, TSVM achieves prediction accuracies of approximately 0.8037, 0.9257, and 0.9583, respectively. In contrast, random forests, the top performers in supervised learning, demonstrate accuracies of approximately 0.7424, 0.8916, and 0.9431, respectively, for the same small sample sizes. Additionally, we discussed three key aspects: TSVM parameter configuration, the impact of unlabeled sample size, and performance within typical sample sizes. Our findings support semi-supervised learning as a promising approach compared to supervised learning for forest fire susceptibility assessment and mapping, particularly in scenarios with small sample sizes.

Spatial multi-attention conditional neural processes.

Spatial prediction tasks are challenging when observed samples are sparse and prediction samples are abundant. Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used in spatial prediction tasks and have the advantage of measuring the uncertainty of the interpolation result. However, as the sample size increases, GPs suffer from significant overhead. Standard neural networks (NNs) provide a powerful and scalable solution for modeling spatial data, but they often overfit small sample data. Based on conditional neural processes (CNPs), which combine the advantages of GPs and NNs, we propose a new framework called Spatial Multi-Attention Conditional Neural Processes (SMACNPs) for spatial small sample prediction tasks. SMACNPs are a modular model that can predict targets by employing different attention mechanisms to extract relevant information from different forms of sample data. The task representation is inferred by measuring the spatial correlation contained in different sample points and the relationship contained in attribute variables, respectively. The distribution of the target variable is predicted by GPs parameterized by NNs. SMACNPs allow us to obtain accurate predictions of the target value while quantifying the prediction uncertainty. Experiments on spatial prediction tasks on simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate that this framework flexibly incorporates spatial context and correlation into the model, achieving state-of-the-art results in spatial small sample prediction tasks in terms of both predictive performance and reliability. For example, on the California housing dataset, our method reduces MAE by 8% and MSE by 7% compared to the second-best method. In addition, a spatiotemporal prediction task to forecast traffic speed further confirms the effectiveness and generality of our method.

Protocol for spatial prediction of soil transmitted helminth prevalence in the Western Pacific region using a meta-analytical approach.

BACKGROUND: Soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections are estimated to impact 24% of the world's population and are responsible for chronic and debilitating morbidity. Disadvantaged communities are among the worst affected and are further marginalized as infection prevalence fuels the poverty cycle. Ambitious targets have been set to eliminate STH infections, but accurate epidemiological data will be required to inform appropriate interventions. This paper details the protocol for an analysis that aims to produce spatial prediction mapping of STH prevalence in the Western Pacific Region (WPR). METHODS: The protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol (PRISMA-P) guidelines. The study design will combine the principles of systematic review, meta-analysis, and geospatial analysis. Systematic searches will be undertaken in PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, Embase, and Web of Science for studies undertaken post 2000, to identify surveys that enable the prevalence of human STH infection within the WPR to be calculated. Covariate data for multivariable analysis will be obtained from publicly accessible sources. Survey data will be geolocated, and STH prevalence and covariates will be linked to produce a spatially referenced dataset for analysis. Bayesian model-based geostatistics will be used to generate spatially continuous estimates of STH prevalence mapped to a resolution of 1 km2. A separate geospatial model will be constructed for each STH species. Predictions of prevalence will be made for unsampled locations and maps will be overlaid for each STH species to obtain co-endemicity maps. DISCUSSION: This protocol facilitates study replication and may be applied to other infectious diseases or alternate geographies. Results of the subsequent analysis will identify geographies with high STH prevalence's and can be used to inform resource allocation in combating this neglected tropical disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework: osf.io/qmxcj.

[Prediction of Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals in Cultivated Soil Based on Multi-source Auxiliary Variables and Random Forest Model].

Spatial prediction of the concentrations of soil heavy metals (HMs) in cultivated land is critical for monitoring cultivated land contamination and ensuring sustainable eco-agriculture. In this study, 32 environmental variables from terrain, climate, soil attributes, remote-sensing information, vegetation indices, and anthropogenic activities were used as auxiliary variables, and random forest (RF), regression Kriging (RK), ordinary Kriging (OK), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models were proposed to predict the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn in cultivated soils. In comparison to those of RK, OK, and MLR, the RF model had the best prediction performance for As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Pb, and Zn, whereas the OK and RK models had highest prediction performance for Cu and Ni, respectively, showing that R2 was the highest, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were the lowest. The prediction performance of the spatial distribution of soil HMs under different prediction methods was basically consistent. The high value areas of eight HMs concentrations were all distributed in the southern plain area. However, the RF model depicted the details of spatial prediction more prominently. Moreover, the importance ranking of influencing factors derived from the RF model indicated that the spatial variation in concentrations of the eight HMs in Lanxi City were mainly affected by the combined effects of Se, TN, pH, elevation, annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, distance from rivers, and distance from factories. Given the above, random forest models could be used as an effective method for the spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, providing scientific reference for regional soil pollution investigation, assessment, and management.

Mapping biocrust distribution in China's drylands under changing climate.

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widely distributed in global drylands and have multiple significant roles in regulating dryland soil and ecosystem multifunctionality. However, maps of their distribution over large spatial scales are uncommon and sometimes unreliable, because our current remote sensing technology is unable to efficiently discriminate between biocrusts and vascular plants or even bare soil across different ecosystem and soil types. The lack of biocrust spatial data may limit our ability to detect risks to dryland function or key tipping points. Here, we indirectly mapped biocrust distribution in China's drylands using spatial prediction modeling, based on a set of occurrences of biocrusts (379 in total) and high-resolution soil and environmental data. The results showed that biocrusts currently cover 13.9 % of China's drylands (or 5.7 % of China's total area), with moss-, lichen-, and cyanobacterial-dominated biocrusts each occupying 5.7 % to 10.7 % of the region. Biocrust distribution is mainly determined by soil properties (soil type and contents of gravel and nitrogen), aridity stress, and altitude. Their most favorable habitat is arenosols with low contents of gravel and nitrogen, in climate with a drought index of 0.54 and an altitude of about 500 m. By 2050, climate change will lead to a 5.5 %-9.0 % reduction in biocrust cover. Lichen biocrusts exhibit a high vulnerability to climate change, with potential reductions of up to 19.0 % in coverage. Biocrust cover loss is primarily caused by the combined effects of the elevated temperature and increased precipitation. Our study provides the first high-resolution (250 × 250 m) map of biocrust distribution in China's drylands and offers a reliable approach for mapping regional or global biocrust colonization. We suggest incorporating biocrusts into Earth system models to identify their significant impact on global or regional-scale processes under climate change.

A new approach based on biology-inspired metaheuristic algorithms in combination with random forest to enhance the flood susceptibility mapping.

Flash floods are one of the worst natural disasters, causing massive economic losses and many deaths. Creating a flood susceptibility map (FSM) that pinpoints the areas most at risk of flooding is a crucial non-structural solution for managing floods. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of combinations of the random forest (RF) model with three biology-inspired metaheuristic algorithms, namely invasive weed optimization (IWO), slime mould algorithm (SMA), and satin bowerbird optimization (SBO), for flood susceptibility mapping in Estahban town, Iran. Initially, synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) (Sentinel-1) and optical (Landsat-8) satellite images were integrated to monitor the flooded areas during the July 2022 monsoon in the study area. A dataset of 509 flood occurrence points was created to identify flood-prone areas using remote sensing techniques, considering the monitored flood areas. The dataset also included twelve flood-related criteria: topography, land cover, and climate. The holdout method was employed for modeling, with a ratio of 70:30 used for the train/test split. Data pre-processing techniques were conducted to improve model performance, including determining criteria importance and addressing multicollinearity issues using certainty factor (CF), multicollinearity, and information gain ratio (IGR) methods. Then FSM was prepared using RF, RF-IWO, RF-SBO, and RF-SMA models. The findings of this research revealed that the RF-IWO model was the best predictive model of flood susceptibility modeling, with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) (0.211 and 0.0.27), mean-absolute-error (MAE) (0.103 and 0.15), and coefficient-of-determination (R2) (0.821 and 0.707) in the training and testing phases, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of FSM revealed that the most accurate models were the RF-IWO (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.983), RF-SBO (AUC = 0.979), RF-SMA (AUC = 0.963), and RF (AUC = 0.959), respectively. Integrating biology-inspired computing algorithms with machine learning algorithms presents a novel approach to enhancing the accuracy of FSMs.

Spatial predictions of tree density and tree height across Mexico forests using ensemble learning and forest inventory data.

The National Forestry Commission of Mexico continuously monitors forest structure within the country's continental territory by the implementation of the National Forest and Soils Inventory (INFyS). Due to the challenges involved in collecting data exclusively from field surveys, there are spatial information gaps for important forest attributes. This can produce bias or increase uncertainty when generating estimates required to support forest management decisions. Our objective is to predict the spatial distribution of tree height and tree density in all Mexican forests. We performed wall-to-wall spatial predictions of both attributes in 1-km grids, using ensemble machine learning across each forest type in Mexico. Predictor variables include remote sensing imagery and other geospatial data (e.g., mean precipitation, surface temperature, canopy cover). Training data is from the 2009 to 2014 cycle (n > 26,000 sampling plots). Spatial cross validation suggested that the model had a better performance when predicting tree height r 2 = .35 [.12, .51] (mean [min, max]) than for tree density r 2 = .23 [.05, .42]. The best predictive performance when mapping tree height was for broadleaf and coniferous-broadleaf forests (model explained ~50% of variance). The best predictive performance when mapping tree density was for tropical forest (model explained ~40% of variance). Although most forests had relatively low uncertainty for tree height predictions, e.g., values <60%, arid and semiarid ecosystems had high uncertainty, e.g., values >80%. Uncertainty values for tree density predictions were >80% in most forests. The applied open science approach we present is easily replicable and scalable, thus it is helpful to assist in the decision-making and future of the National Forest and Soils Inventory. This work highlights the need for analytical tools that help us exploit the full potential of the Mexican forest inventory datasets.

The integrated nested Laplace approximation applied to spatial log-Gaussian Cox process models.

Spatial point process models are theoretically useful for mapping discrete events, such as plant or animal presence, across space; however, the computational complexity of fitting these models is often a barrier to their practical use. The log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) is a point process driven by a latent Gaussian field, and recent advances have made it possible to fit Bayesian LGCP models using approximate methods that facilitate rapid computation. These advances include the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) with a stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) approach to sparsely approximate the Gaussian field and an extension using pseudodata with a Poisson response. To help link the theoretical results to statistical practice, we provide an overview of INLA for point process data and then illustrate their implementation using freely available data. The analyzed datasets include both a completely observed spatial field and an incomplete data situation. Our well-commented R code is shared in the online supplement. Our intent is to make these methods accessible to the practitioner of spatial statistics without requiring deep knowledge of point process theory.

Spatial prediction and influencing factors identification of potential toxic element contamination in soil of different karst landform regions using integration model.

The prediction of contamination distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in soils of Guangxi province, China and the identification of their controlling factors pose great challenges due to diverse bedrock types, intense leaching and weathering, and discontinuous terrain distributions. Herein, we integrated the random forest (RF) and empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) to interpret and predict complex PTEs contamination distribution from three different karst landform regions (fenglin, fengcong, isolated peak plain) in Guangxi province. The modeling results are compared with the commonly used ordinary kriging and regression-kriging. In this study, our developed RF-EBK model combines the advantages of the RF and EBK model to promote the prediction accurately and efficiently. In this study, it was shown that the integration RF-EBK model exhibited desirable for Cd and As concentrations, with R2 of 0.89 and 0.83, respectively. The average RMSE and MAE of integration RF-EBK model decreased by 39% and 44%, respectively, relative to the regression-kriging with the second highest accuracy. Furthermore, the modeling results showed that approximately 41.96% and 18.96% of total area was classified as Cd and As polluted and above regions (Igeo >0) in Guangxi province, respectively. Higher Cd concentration was observed in the soil of fenglin and fengcong regions than that in isolated peak plain region due to the secondary enrichment and parent rock inheritance, while the As concentration exhibited no significant difference among the three regions. The modeling results indicated that the elevated Cd concentration might be associated with soil CaO concentration and alkaline soil environment, whereas As concentration tended to be increased with the elevating Fe2O3 concentrations in weakly acidic soil environment. This result confirmed the applicability and effectiveness of integration model in predicting complex spatial patterns of soil PTEs and identifying their controlling factors.

Predicting latent source-specific PM2.5 pollution from regional sources at unmonitored sites by Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been a pollutant of main interest globally for more than two decades, owing to its well-known adverse health effects. For developing effective management strategies for PM2.5, it is vital to identify its major sources and quantify how much they contribute to ambient PM2.5 concentrations. With the expanded monitoring efforts established during recent decades in Korea, speciated PM2.5 data needed for source apportionment of PM2.5 are now available for multiple sites (cities). However, many cities in Korea still do not have any speciated PM2.5 monitoring station, although quantification of source contributions for those cities is in great need. While there have been many PM2.5 source apportionment studies throughout the world for several decades based on monitoring data collected from receptor site(s), none of those receptor-oriented studies could predict unobserved source contributions at unmonitored sites. This study predicts source contributions of PM2.5 at unmonitored locations using a recently developed novel spatial multivariate receptor modeling (BSMRM) approach, which incorporates spatial correlation in data into modeling and estimation for spatial prediction of latent source contributions. The validity of BSMRM results is also assessed based on the data from a test site (city), not used in model development and estimation.

Application of genetic algorithm in optimization parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms to flood susceptibility mapping using radar satellite imagery.

Floods are the natural disaster that occurs most frequently due to the weather and causes the most widespread destruction. The purpose of the proposed research is to analyze flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) in the Sulaymaniyah province of Iraq. This study employed a genetic algorithm (GA) to fine-tune parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms (random forest (RF) and bootstrap aggregation (Bagging)). Four machine learning algorithms (RF, Bagging, RF-GA, and Bagging-GA) were used to build FSM in the study area. To provide inputs into parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms, we gathered and processed data from meteorological (Rainfall), satellite image (flood inventory, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, land cover, altitude, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope) and geographic sources (geology). For this research, Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were utilized to locate flooded areas and create an inventory map of floods. To train and validate the model, we employed 70 % and 30 % of 160 selected flood locations, respectively. Multicollinearity, frequency ratio (FR), and Geodetector methods were used for data preprocessing. Four metrics were utilized to assess the FSM performance: the root mean square error (RMSE), the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), the Taylor diagram, and the seed cell area index (SCAI). The results exhibited that all the suggested models have high accuracy of prediction, but the performance of Bagging-GA (RMSE (Train = 0.1793, Test = 0.4543)) was slightly better than RF-GA (RMSE (Train = 0.1803, Test = 0.4563)), Bagging (RMSE (Train = 0.2191, Test = 0.4566)), and RF (RMSE (Train = 0.2529, Test = 0.4724)). According to the ROC index, the Bagging-GA model (AUC = 0.935) was the most accurate in flood susceptibility modeling, followed by the RF-GA (AUC = 0.904), the Bagging (AUC = 0.872), and the RF (AUC = 0.847) models. The study's identification of high-risk flood zones and the most significant factors contributing to flooding make it a helpful resource for flood management.

Mapping Understory Vegetation Density in Mediterranean Forests: Insights from Airborne and Terrestrial Laser Scanning Integration.

The understory is an essential ecological and structural component of forest ecosystems. The lack of efficient, accurate, and objective methods for evaluating and quantifying the spatial spread of understory characteristics over large areas is a challenge for forest planning and management, with specific regard to biodiversity and habitat governance. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne laser scanning (TLS and ALS) data to characterize understory in a European beech and black pine forest in Italy. First, we linked understory structural features derived from traditional field measurements with TLS metrics, then, we related such metrics to the ones derived from ALS. Results indicate that (i) the upper understory density (5-10 m above ground) is significantly associated with two ALS metrics, specifically the mean height of points belonging to the lower third of the ALS point cloud within the voxel (HM1/3) and the corresponding standard deviation (SD1/3), while (ii) for the lower understory layer (2-5 m above ground), the most related metric is HM1/3 alone. As an example application, we have produced a map of forest understory for each layer, extending over the entire study region covered by ALS data, based on the developed spatial prediction models. With this study, we also demonstrated the power of hand-held mobile-TLS as a fast and high-resolution tool for measuring forest structural attributes and obtaining relevant ecological data.

A spatio-temporal framework for modelling wastewater concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology as an early warning tool has been explored widely across the globe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater were developed early in the pandemic, and extensive work has been conducted to evaluate the relationship between viral concentration and COVID-19 case numbers at the catchment areas of sewage treatment works (STWs) over time. However, no attempt has been made to develop a model that predicts wastewater concentration at fine spatio-temporal resolutions covering an entire country, a necessary step towards using wastewater monitoring for the early detection of local outbreaks. We consider weekly averages of flow-normalised viral concentration, reported as the number of SARS-CoV-2N1 gene copies per litre (gc/L) of wastewater available at 303 STWs over the period between 1 June 2021 and 30 March 2022. We specify a spatially continuous statistical model that quantifies the relationship between weekly viral concentration and a collection of covariates covering socio-demographics, land cover and virus associated genomic characteristics at STW catchment areas while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. We evaluate the model's predictive performance at the catchment level through 10-fold cross-validation. We predict the weekly viral concentration at the population-weighted centroid of the 32,844 lower super output areas (LSOAs) in England, then aggregate these LSOA predictions to the Lower Tier Local Authority level (LTLA), a geography that is more relevant to public health policy-making. We also use the model outputs to quantify the probability of local changes of direction (increases or decreases) in viral concentration over short periods (e.g. two consecutive weeks). The proposed statistical framework can predict SARS-CoV-2 viral concentration in wastewater at high spatio-temporal resolution across England. Additionally, the probabilistic quantification of local changes can be used as an early warning tool for public health surveillance.

Digital mapping of soil pH and carbonates at the European scale using environmental variables and machine learning.

Soil pH and carbonates (CaCO3) are important indicators of soil chemistry and fertility, and the prediction of their spatial distribution is critical for the agronomic and environmental management. Digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques are widely accepted for the geospatial analysis of the soil properties. They are rapid and cost-efficient approaches that can provide quantitative prediction. However, the digital mapping of soil pH and CaCO3 are not well studied, especially at a continental scale. In this research, we mapped the soil pH and CaCO3 at the European scale using multisource environmental variables and machine learning approaches. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, terrain attributes, and climatic variables were considered. Meanwhile, nine machine learning algorithms, namely, three linear and six nonlinear models, were used for the spatial prediction of soil pH and CaCO3. The land use and cover area frame statistical survey (LUCAS) 2015 topsoil dataset provided by the European Soil Data Centre was utilised. The performances of different models were compared and analysed in terms of coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and ratio of performance to deviation (RPD). Specifically, nonlinear machine learning models outperformed the linear ones, and extremely randomized trees (ERT) gave the most satisfactory result for soil pH (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 0.75, and RPD = 1.84) and CaCO3 (R2 = 0.53, RMSE = 93.49 g/kg, and RPD = 1.46). The results revealed that MODIS products and climatic variables were important in predicting soil pH and CaCO3. Moreover, spatial distribution of soil pH and CaCO3 in Europe were mapped at 250 m resolution, and the areas with high CaCO3 content always showed high soil pH value.