Predicting the onset of end-stage knee osteoarthritis over two- and five-years using machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying participants who will progress to advanced stage in knee osteoarthritis (KOA) trials remains a significant challenge. Current tools, relying on total knee replacements (TKR), fall short in reliability due to the extraneous factors influencing TKR decisions. Acknowledging these limitations, our study identifies a critical need for a more robust metric to assess severe KOA. The end-stage KOA (esKOA) measure, which combines symptomatic and radiographic criteria, serves as a solid indicator. To enhance future trials that use esKOA as an endpoint, our study focuses on developing and validating a machine-learning tool to identify individuals likely to develop esKOA within 2 to 5 years. DESIGN: Utilizing the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) data, we trained models on 3,114 participants and validated them with 606 participants for the right knee, and similarly for the left knee, with external validation from the Multicentre Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) involving 1,602 participants. We aimed to predict esKOA onset at 2-to-2.5 years and 4-to-5 years, defining esKOA by severe radiographic KOA with moderate/severe symptoms or mild/moderate radiographic KOA with persistent/intense symptoms. Our analysis considered 51 candidate predictors, including demographics, clinical history, physical examination, and X-ray evaluations. An online tool predicting esKOA progression, based on models with ten and nine predictors for the right and left knees, respectively, was developed. RESULTS: External validation (MOST) for the right knee at 2.5 years yielded an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95 % CI 0.811 to 0.882), and at 5 years, 0.853 (95 % CI 0.823 to 0.881); for the left knee at 2.5 years, AUC was 0.824 (95 % CI 0.782 to 0.857), and at 5 years, 0.807 (95 % CI 0.768 to 0.843). Models with fewer predictors demonstrated comparable performance. The online tool is available at: https://eskoa.shinyapps.io/webapp/. CONCLUSION: Our study unveils a robust, externally validated machine learning tool proficient in predicting the onset of esKOA over the next 2 to 5 years. Our tool can lead to more efficient KOA trials.

Early Prediction of Poststroke Rehabilitation Outcomes Using Wearable Sensors.

OBJECTIVE: Inpatient rehabilitation represents a critical setting for stroke treatment, providing intensive, targeted therapy and task-specific practice to minimize a patient's functional deficits and facilitate their reintegration into the community. However, impairment and recovery vary greatly after stroke, making it difficult to predict a patient's future outcomes or response to treatment. In this study, the authors examined the value of early-stage wearable sensor data to predict 3 functional outcomes (ambulation, independence, and risk of falling) at rehabilitation discharge. METHODS: Fifty-five individuals undergoing inpatient stroke rehabilitation participated in this study. Supervised machine learning classifiers were retrospectively trained to predict discharge outcomes using data collected at hospital admission, including patient information, functional assessment scores, and inertial sensor data from the lower limbs during gait and/or balance tasks. Model performance was compared across different data combinations and was benchmarked against a traditional model trained without sensor data. RESULTS: For patients who were ambulatory at admission, sensor data improved the predictions of ambulation and risk of falling (with weighted F1 scores increasing by 19.6% and 23.4%, respectively) and maintained similar performance for predictions of independence, compared to a benchmark model without sensor data. The best-performing sensor-based models predicted discharge ambulation (community vs household), independence (high vs low), and risk of falling (normal vs high) with accuracies of 84.4%, 68.8%, and 65.9%, respectively. Most misclassifications occurred with admission or discharge scores near the classification boundary. For patients who were nonambulatory at admission, sensor data recorded during simple balance tasks did not offer predictive value over the benchmark models. CONCLUSION: These findings support the continued investigation of wearable sensors as an accessible, easy-to-use tool to predict the functional recovery after stroke. IMPACT: Accurate, early prediction of poststroke rehabilitation outcomes from wearable sensors would improve our ability to deliver personalized, effective care and discharge planning in the inpatient setting and beyond.

Polyphenol analysis in human milk by a rapid, cost-effective, and accurate micromethod: translational development / Análise de polifenóis no leite humano por meio de um micrométodo rápido, econômico e preciso: desenvolvimento translacional

ABSTRACT Objective: To develop a rapid method for analysing polyphenols, which are potentially active antioxidants against neonatal oxidative stress, from small human milk (HM) volumes. Methods: Acid and alkaline extractions were compared using two dyes: Folin-Ciocalteu and Fast Blue BB. Linearity, sensitivity, recovery percentage, polyphenol content, precision, and stability were assessed in 14 HM samples and compared using the Kruskal-Wallis H test (p<0.05). The best technique was applied to 284 HM samples to determine their polyphenolic content and its association with maternal diet by multifactorial linear regression. Results: Acidic extraction successfully recovered the gallic acid reference standard, whereas alkaline extraction overestimated it. Calibration curves for all methods were linear (R2>0.96) up to 500 mg/L. All bicarbonate-based Folin-Ciocalteu methods assayed were stable and repeatable, whereas Fast Blue BB-based variants were not. HM polyphenols (mean=94.68 mg/L) positively correlated to the dietary intake of hydroxycinnamic acids, the most consumed polyphenolic family in this population. Conclusions: A bicarbonate-based Folin-Ciocalteu micromethod allowed the accurate determination of polyphenols in HM, which might be useful for translational research settings and HM banks.

RESUMO Objetivo: Desenvolver um método rápido para analisar polifenóis, que são antioxidantes potencialmente ativos contra o estresse oxidativo neonatal, em pequenos volumes de leite humano (LH). Métodos: Foram comparadas extrações ácidas e alcalinas usando dois corantes: Folin-Ciocalteu e Fast Blue BB. Foram avaliadas variáveis como linearidade, sensibilidade, percentagem de recuperação, teor de polifenóis, precisão e estabilidade em 14 amostras de LH, comparadas usando o teste de Kruskal-Wallis H (p<0,05). A melhor técnica foi aplicada a 284 amostras de LH para determinar seu teor polifenólico e sua associação com a dieta materna por regressão linear multifatorial. Resultados: A extração ácida recuperou com sucesso o padrão de referência do ácido gálico, enquanto a extração alcalina o superestimou. As curvas de calibração para todos os métodos foram lineares (R2>0,96) até os 500 mg/L. Todos os métodos testados baseados em Folin-Ciocalteu com bicarbonato foram estáveis e repetíveis, enquanto as variantes baseadas em Fast Blue BB não. Os polifenóis do HM (média=94,68 mg/L) correlacionaram-se positivamente com a ingestão dietética de ácidos hidroxicinâmicos, a família de polifenóis mais consumida nesta população. Conclusões: Um micrométodo baseado em bicarbonato de Folin-Ciocalteu permitiu a determinação precisa de polifenóis no HM, o que pode ser útil para configurações de pesquisa translacional e bancos de HM.

Análisis costo-efectividad del tratamiento con terapia compresiva en la cicatrización de úlceras venosas / Cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment with compressive therapy in the healing of venous ulcers / Análise de custo-efetividade do tratamento com terapia compressiva na cicatrização de úlceras venosas

Objetivo: analizar el costo-efectividad y calcular la relación costoefectividad incremental del tratamiento multicapa compresivo con respecto al inelástico (bota de Unna y estiramiento corto) según la literatura actual. Método: estudio cuantitativo de costo-efectividad a través de un modelo con ayuda del software TreeAge® para la elaboración del árbol de decisión. Los supuestos anunciados se obtuvieron mediante el uso de datos secundarios de la literatura para estimar el costo y la efectividad de los parámetros asumidos. Para ello, se realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura con metaanálisis. Resultados: el árbol de decisión, después del Roll Back, mostró que la terapia multicapa prevaleció sobre las alternativas en el caso base, presentó un costo intermedio por aplicación, pero obtuvo la mayor efectividad. El gráfico del análisis de costo-efectividad también demostró que había un dominio extendido de la bota de Unna sobre el vendaje de estiramiento corto. El análisis de sensibilidad reveló que el vendaje multicapa sigue siendo la alternativa con mayor costoefectividad, dentro del umbral de disposición a pagar. Conclusión: la alternativa con mayor costo-efectividad fue el vendaje multicapa, considerado estándar de oro en la literatura. La segunda alternativa con mayor costo-efectividad fue la bota de Unna, la terapia más utilizada en Brasil.

Objective: to analyze the cost-effectiveness and calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of multilayer compressive treatment in relation to inelastic (Unna boot and short stretch) therapy according to the current literature. Method: quantitative study about cost-effectiveness through modeling with the aid of TreeAge® software for construction of the decision tree. The anticipated assumptions were obtained by using secondary literature data to estimate the cost and effectiveness of the assumed parameters. A systematic literature review with meta-analysis was performed for this end. Results: the decision tree after Roll Back showed that the multilayer therapy dominated the alternatives in the base case, representing an intermediate cost per application, although with the highest effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness analysis graph also showed extended dominance of the Unna boot in relation to the short stretch bandage. The sensitivity analysis showed that multilayer bandage remains a more cost-effective alternative, within the threshold of willingness to pay. Conclusion: the most cost-effective alternative was multilayer bandage, considered the gold standard in the literature. The second most cost-effective alternative was the Unna boot, the most used therapy in Brazil.

Objetivo: analisar a custo-efetividade e calcular a razão de custoefetividade incremental do tratamento compressivo multicamadas em relação ao inelástico (bota de Unna e curto estiramento) de acordo com a literatura atual. Método: estudo quantitativo sobre custo-efetividade por meio de modelagem com auxílio do software TreeAge® para a construção da árvore de decisão. Os pressupostos anunciados foram obtidos pelo uso de dados secundários de literatura para estimativa do custo e efetividade dos parâmetros assumidos. Para tal, foi realizada uma revisão sistemática de literatura com metanálise. Resultados: a árvore de decisão, após Roll Back mostrou que a terapia multicamadas dominou as alternativas no caso-base, representando custo intermediário por aplicação, porém, com a maior efetividade. O gráfico da análise de custo-efetividade também mostrou uma dominância estendida da bota de Unna em relação à bandagem de curto estiramento. A análise de sensibilidade mostrou que a bandagem multicamadas permanece como alternativa mais custo-efetiva, dentro do limiar de disposição para pagar. Conclusão: a alternativa com maior custo-efetividade foi a bandagem multicamadas, considerada padrão ouro na literatura. A segunda alternativa mais custo-efetiva foi a bota de Unna, terapia mais utilizada no Brasil.

Proposing a health-specific organizational impact framework to evaluate organizational impacts in health technology assessments.

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessments (HTAs) have traditionally included clinical and cost-effectiveness evaluation of new health technologies (HTs). However, new HTs can generate important organizational impacts (OIs) that influence their overall value. OIs are currently not clearly identified and evaluated in HTA procedures and tools are limited. To address this issue, a comprehensive framework that allows to assess OIs of new HTs in HTAs is proposed. METHODS: A working and methodological group identified the Oslo Manual 2018, 4th edition, OECD/Eurostat, on the objectives and outcomes of commercial innovations as the basis for the OIs framework for HTAs. The Oslo Manual was translated to the healthcare sector and adapted to HTA procedures through a three-step process. RESULTS: The framework is composed of three main parts. Part I tackles the context of the evaluation, Part II the categories of impacts and the specific impacts - in total, 16 OIs were identified - and Part III the stakeholders involved. The central part of the framework is Part II, and consists of three categories of impacts: (i) on the care process, (ii) on the stakeholders' capabilities and skills, and (iii) on society or the community. CONCLUSIONS: This framework provides a comprehensive and structured basis to document OIs of new HTs. It thus contributes to the extension of HTA evaluation criteria to other dimensions than clinical and economic aspects, that is, organizational aspects. Some of its intrinsic limitations and the questions they raise in the field for policy-makers, practitioners, and researchers are discussed.

Estudo comparativo entre empresa farmacêutica global e instituição pública de produção e inovação em saúde / Comparative study between global pharmaceutical company and public institution of production and innovation in health

RESUMO O cenário tecnológico no campo da saúde é um fato alarmante, mormente no contexto provocado pela Covid-19. Nessa conjuntura, a Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, por meio da Unidade de Bio-Manguinhos, e o Butantan foram protagonistas para o acesso universal, dialogando com estratégicas internacionais. No adensamento da discussão estratégica para Instituições Públicas de Produção e Inovação em Saúde (Ippis), o uso de diretrizes da Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde destaca-se como via de mudança paradigmática para a introdução de tecnologias no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) alinhada à visão de inovação de futuro em saúde consonante às demandas nacionais. Este artigo, desenvolvido metodologicamente mediante pesquisas descritiva qualitativa, bibliográfica, documental e trabalho de campo, buscou traçar simetrias e assimetrias baseado nas experiências coletadas em empresa farmacêutica global e instituição de referência nacional pública do campo de incorporação tecnológica em saúde. Como resultados, são explicitados pontos-chave para o fortalecimento técnico e político do Complexo Econômico-Industrial da Saúde, por meio da revisão organizacional das Ippis quanto a aspectos de inovação e de gestão, culminado na promoção de melhorias na Política de ciência, tecnologia e inovação em resposta ao desafio da sustentabilidade, efetividade e acesso no SUS.

ABSTRACT The technological scenario in the field of health is an alarming fact, especially in the context caused by COVID-19. In this context, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, through the Bio-Manguinhos Unit, and the Butantan Institute were protagonists for universal access, dialoguing with international strategies. In the strategic discussion for Public Institutions of Production and Innovation in Health (IPPIS), the use of guidelines of the Technological Assessment in Health stands out as a way of paradigmatic change for the introduction of technologies in the Unified Health System (SUS) in line with the vision of future innovation in health in accordance with national demands. This article, methodologically developed through qualitative descriptive research, bibliographical, documentary and field work, sought to trace symmetries and asymmetries based on the experiences collected in a global pharmaceutical company and a public national reference institution in the field of technological incorporation in health. As a result, key points are explained for the technical and political strengthening of the Health Economic-Industrial Complex, through the organizational review of the IPPIS regarding innovation and management aspects, culminating in the promotion of improvements in the science, technology and innovation policy in response to the challenge of sustainability, effectiveness and access in the SUS.

IMproving facial PRosthesis construction with contactlESs Scanning and Digital workflow (IMPRESSeD): study protocol for a feasibility crossover randomised controlled trial of digital versus conventional manufacture of facial prostheses in patients with orbital or nasal facial defects.

BACKGROUND: Facial prostheses can have a profound impact on patients' appearance, function and quality of life. There has been increasing interest in the digital manufacturing of facial prostheses which may offer many benefits to patients and healthcare services compared with conventional manufacturing processes. Most facial prosthesis research has adopted observational study designs with very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) documented. There is a clear need for a well-designed RCT to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of digitally manufactured facial prostheses versus conventionally manufactured facial prostheses. This study protocol describes the planned conduct of a feasibility RCT which aims to address this knowledge gap and determine whether it is feasible to conduct a future definitive RCT. METHODS: The IMPRESSeD study is a multi-centre, 2-arm, crossover, feasibility RCT with early health technology assessment and qualitative research. Up to 30 participants with acquired orbital or nasal defects will be recruited from the Maxillofacial Prosthetic Departments of participating NHS hospitals. All trial participants will receive 2 new facial prostheses manufactured using digital and conventional manufacturing methods. The order of receiving the facial prostheses will be allocated centrally using minimisation. The 2 prostheses will be made in tandem and marked with a colour label to mask the manufacturing method to the participants. Participants will be reviewed 4 weeks following the delivery of the first prosthesis and 4 weeks following the delivery of the second prosthesis. Primary feasibility outcomes include eligibility, recruitment, conversion, and attrition rates. Data will also be collected on patient preference, quality of life and resource use from the healthcare perspective. A qualitative sub-study will evaluate patients' perception, lived experience and preference of the different manufacturing methods. DISCUSSION: There is uncertainty regarding the best method of manufacturing facial prostheses in terms of clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and patient acceptability. There is a need for a well-designed RCT to compare digital and conventional manufacturing of facial prostheses to better inform clinical practice. The feasibility study will evaluate key parameters needed to design a definitive trial and will incorporate early health technology assessment and a qualitative sub-study to identify the potential benefits of further research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN10516986). Prospectively registered on 08 June 2021,  https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN10516986 .

Occupational therapy for persons with cognitive impairments.

Background: Damage to the central nervous system can occur in adulthood, for example, due to stroke, trauma, tumours, or chronic diseases. After damage to the central nervous system, cognitive impairments occur in addition to physical limitations. Occupational therapy is most often prescribed for neurological diagnoses, including stroke and traumatic brain injury. Methods: The health technology assessment (HTA) report this HTA article is based on investigates the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and patient-related, social and ethical aspects of occupational therapy for patients with cognitive impairments compared to no occupational therapy. In addition, the effects of different occupational therapy interventions with and without cognitive components were compared in an explorative overview. Patients with moderate or severe dementia are excluded from the assessment. Systematic overviews, that is, systematic reviews of systematic reviews, were conducted. Results: For the evaluation of clinical effectiveness, a total of nine systematic reviews were included. No systematic review was identified for the assessment of costs or cost-effectiveness. Five systematic reviews were included for the assessment of patient and social aspects. For the assessment of clinical effectiveness compared with no occupational therapy, five systematic reviews comprising 20 randomised controlled trials with a total of 1,316 subjects reported small positive effects for the outcomes "global cognitive function" and "activities of daily living" as well as a non-quantified positive effect on the outcomes "health-related quality of life" and "behavioural control". No effect was found for individual components of cognition and measures of perception. The quality of the evidence for all outcomes is low due to a high risk of bias. In the supplementary presentations, no positive effects could be demonstrated on the basis of the available evidence. The quality of this evidence was not assessed. For the assessment of patient and social aspects, five systematic reviews on patients with a stroke or a traumatic brain injury - without specification regarding cognitive deficits or studies with their relatives - were included. It was reported that patients and family caregivers go through different phases of rehabilitation in which the discharge home is a decisive turning point. The discharge home represents a crucial breaking point. Regaining an active, self-determining role is a process that requires therapists to find the right level of support for patients and relatives. For the assessment of ethical aspects, nine documents were included. We identified ethical problem-solving models for occupational therapy and 16 ethical aspects in occupational therapy for cognitive deficits. The central theme of the analysis is the limited autonomy due to the consequences of the disease as well as the resulting tensions with those treating the patient. Conclusions: Based on this systematic overview, it can neither be proven nor excluded with certainty that occupational therapy for cognitive impairment is an effective therapy for adult patients with central nervous system injuries compared to no occupational therapy. There is a lack of randomised trials with sufficient sample size, well-defined interventions, and comparable concomitant therapies in the control groups, but there is also a lack of well-designed observational studies in routine care and health economic studies. The identified systematic reviews on patient and social aspects provide information on the needs of patients after stroke or traumatic brain injury and their relatives, but there is a lack of studies on this aspect in German-speaking countries. For the ethical assessment, in addition to the identified theoretical models for solving ethical conflicts in occupational therapy, more empirical studies on ethical aspects with patients with cognitive deficits and their relatives as well as occupational therapists are needed.

Bioinspired Approaches to Engineer Antithrombogenic Medical Devices for Vascular Intervention.

Medical devices form a critical component of health care systems for treating and maintaining patient health. However, devices exposed to blood are prone to blood clotting (thrombosis) and bleeding complications leading to device occlusion, device failure, embolism and stroke, and increased morbidity and mortality. Over the years, developments in innovative material design strategies have been made to help reduce the occurrence of thrombotic events on medical devices, but complications persist. Here, we review material and surface coating technologies that have taken bioinspiration from the endothelium to reduce medical device thrombosis, either by mimicking aspects of the glycocalyx to prevent adhesion of proteins and cells to the material surface or mimicking the bioactive function of the endothelium through immobilized or released bioactive molecules to actively inhibit thrombosis. We highlight newer strategies that take inspiration from multiple aspects of the endothelium or are stimuli responsive, only releasing antithrombotic biomolecules when thrombosis is triggered. Emerging areas of innovation target inflammation to decrease thrombosis without increasing bleeding, and interesting results are coming from underexplored aspects of material properties, such as material interfacial mobility and stiffness, which show that increased mobility and decreased stiffness are less thrombogenic. These exciting new strategies require further research and development before clinical translation, including consideration of longevity, cost, and sterilization, but show capacity for the development of more sophisticated antithrombotic medical device materials.

Retos y perspectivas de las agencias de evaluación de Tecnologías en Salud en el Perú / Challenges and perspectives of the Health Technology evaluation agencies in Peru

RESUMEN Las Tecnologías Sanitarias (TS) son importantes para tomar decisiones adecuadas en el ámbito de la salud. Se destaca la necesidad de estandarizar las evaluaciones de las TS, ya que actualmente existen diferencias en los métodos y recomendaciones utilizados. Además, se menciona la falta de recursos humanos capacitados para llevar a cabo estas evaluaciones, así como los tiempos prolongados que pueden tomar. Por lo tanto, es fundamental priorizar las tecnologías a evaluar para maximizar los recursos disponibles. En América Latina, el proceso de priorización de tecnologías sanitarias presenta diversas barreras, como la falta de un proceso explícito y formal de priorización en la mayoría de los países. Estas barreras incluyen la fragmentación de los servicios de salud, el desacuerdo de los actores involucrados y el temor a una reducción de la discrecionalidad en la toma de decisiones. A pesar de estas dificultades, se han desarrollado procesos de priorización basados en diferentes marcos metodológicos, que deben ser transparentes, sistemáticos, eficientes, explícitos y consensuados. Por lo tanto, es necesario contar con marcos referenciales para evaluar el impacto de estas tecnologías en la atención sanitaria. Se destaca la importancia de declarar los conflictos de interés en la evaluación de tecnologías sanitarias y cómo la influencia de la industria puede afectar el proceso de evaluación. Además, se resalta la necesidad de estandarizar metodologías e instrumentos de evaluación para mejorar la calidad y comparabilidad de las ETS.

ABSTRACT Health Technologies (HT) are important to make appropriate decisions in the field of health. The need to standardize TS evaluations is highlighted, since there are currently differences in the methods and recommendations used. In addition, the lack of trained human resources to carry out these evaluations is mentioned, as well as the long times they can take. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the technologies to be evaluated to maximize available resources. In Latin America, the health technology prioritization process presents various barriers, such as the lack of an explicit and formal prioritization process in most countries. These barriers include fragmentation of health services, disagreement among stakeholders, and fear of reduced discretion in decision-making. Despite these difficulties, prioritization processes have been developed based on different methodological frameworks, which must be transparent, systematic, efficient, explicit and consensual. Therefore, it is necessary to have reference frameworks to evaluate the impact of these technologies on healthcare. The importance of declaring conflicts of interest in the evaluation of health technologies and how industry influence can affect the evaluation process is highlighted. Furthermore, the need to standardize evaluation methodologies and instruments is highlighted to improve the quality and comparability of STDs.

Pathway map development for medical device event reporting in operating theatres: a human factors approach to improving the existing system.

Objectives: This study aimed to develop the actual pathway to reporting and information transfer in operating theatres in relation to medical technology malfunction/failure. This with the aim of understanding the differences with the pathway published by NHS Improvement and identification of points for improvement. Design: This is a qualitative study involving stakeholder interviews with doctors, nurses, manufacturers, medical device safety officer and Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Setting: Data were collected on reporting pathway used in operating theatres. Clinical staff who took part worked in different trusts throughout UK while manufacturers provided devices in UK and EU/USA. Participants: Semistructured interviews were completed with 15 clinicians and 13 manufacturers. Surveys were completed by 38 clinicians and 5 manufacturers. Recognised methods of pathway development were used. The Lean Six Sigma principles adapted to healthcare were used to develop suggestions for improvement. Main outcome measures: To identify the differences between the set pathway to reporting and information transfer to what is occurring on a day-to-day basis as reported by staff. Identify points in the pathway where improvements could be applied. Results: The developed pathway demonstrated great complexity of the current reporting system for medical devices. It identified numerous areas that give rise to problems and multiple biases in decision making. This highlighted the core issues leading to under-reporting and lack of knowledge on device performance and patient risk. Suggestions for improvement were deduced based on end user requirements and identified problems. Conclusions: This study has provided a detailed understanding of the key problem areas that exist within the current reporting system for medical devices and technology. The developed pathway sets to address the key problems to improve reporting outcomes. The identification of pathway differences between 'work as done' and 'work as imagined' can lead to development of quality improvements that could be systematically applied.

Núcleos de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde e Comissões de Farmácia e Terapêutica em hospitais universitários: organização e articulação / Hospital-based HTA Nuclei and Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committee in university hospitals: organization and articulation

Introdução: A atuação dos Núcleos de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde (NATS) e das Comissões de Farmácia e Terapêutica (CFT) em hospitais de ensino pode ser potencializada para o fortalecimento da implementação da política de gestão de tecnologias em saúde no âmbito hospitalar. Entretanto, a organização e as formas como esses grupos se articulam é pouco conhecida. Objetivo: Analisar processos de trabalho de NATS e CFT instituídos em hospitais universitários federais sob a gestão da Empresa Brasileira de Serviços Hospitalares (Ebserh), identificando elementos organizacionais e níveis de articulações entre esses grupos, além das principais dificuldades enfrentadas. Métodos: Trata-se de uma pesquisa qualitativa exploratória, envolvendo estudo de casos múltiplos. As unidades hospitalares foram selecionadas após critério de inclusão. A coleta de dados empregou análise documental e entrevista semiestruturada com pessoas chaves dos processos. Resultados: Os resultados permitiram uma visão geral sobre como estão organizados e estruturados os NATS e as CFTs, bem como a identificação de diferentes níveis de articulação entre eles. Dos 8 hospitais estudados, 3 apresentaram nível alto de articulação, 4 apresentaram nível baixo e em um deles não foi observada a existência de articulação entre o NATS e a CFT. Entre os desafios enfrentados pelos grupos foram relatados a escassez de recursos humanos, incipiente estrutura administrativa ou espaço físico e necessidades de capacitação. Conclusão: Quatro dos hospitais apresentaram nível baixo de articulação entre o NATS e a CFT, indicando a necessidade de maior compreensão dos fatores intervenientes. Os resultados contribuem para o conhecimento institucional de cada grupo estudado e podem orientar ações de melhoria e fortalecimento da cultura da ATS para gestão de tecnologias nos ambientes hospitalares.

Introduction: The hospital-based HTA nuclei (NATS) in teaching hospitals and their interaction with the Pharmacy and Therapeutics Committee (PTC), can be an important strategy for strengthening HTA in the hospital environment. However, this relationship is not well known. Objective: To analyse NATS and PTC work processes that has been established in Federal University Hospitals administrated by Empresa Brasileira de Serviços Hospitalares ­ Ebserh (The Brazilian Company of Hospital Services), identifying how they are organized, possible interfaces and difficulties and points of articulation between them. Methods: This is an exploratory qualitative research involving multiple-case study. Hospital units were selected by applying some inclusion criteria. The data were collected from document analysis and semi-structured interviews with key informants from both groups. Results: The results showed an overview about how the NATS and PTC are organized and structured, identificating different levels of articulation between them, with three of eight hospitals considered of high level. Among the challenges were pointed out the lack of human resources availability, administrative structure or physical space and training. Conclusion: Four hospitals demonstrated low level of articulation between the NATS and the PTC, indicating needs for understanding the intervening factors. This study contributes to the institutional knowledge for guiding actions to improve and strengthen the HTA culture at the hospital level.

Avaliação da procalcitonina como tecnologia de saúde a ser incorporada em um hospital universitário para redução de tempo de tratamento com antimicrobianos / Evaluation of procalcitonin as a health technology to be incorporated in a university hospital to reduce treatment time with antimicrobials

Introdução: O uso do biomarcador procalcitonina (PCT) de forma racionalizada pode contribuir para reduzir o uso excessivo de antimicrobianos, poupar recursos e qualificar o cuidado com o paciente. Objetivo: Avaliar a eficácia da PCT na redução do tempo de tratamento com antimicrobianos e o impacto financeiro e factibilidade da incorporação desta tecnologia a partir de cenários simulados em um hospital de pequeno porte e média complexidade. Material e Métodos: Revisão da literatura, a partir da base de dados Pubmed seguida de análise de custo em quatro cenários simulados, comparando o PCR com a PCT. Foram incluídos ensaios clínicos randomizados e revisões sistemáticas cuja intervenção consistia no uso de PCT para guiar o tempo de tratamento com antimicrobianos. A seleção e extração dos dados foi realizada por quatro revisores independentes. A análise de custo foi realizada por meio de cenários simulados com os antimicrobianos de maior impacto na instituição totalizando doze terapias analisadas, a partir de dados de custos efetivamente desembolsados. Resultados: Foram selecionados 8 artigos para a análise final. A PCT possibilitou redução significativa de tempo de tratamento, redução de mortalidade, tempo de internação, eventos adversos e custos. A simulação de custo demonstrou que o cenário com PCT foi mais econômico para 67% das terapias analisadas, chegando à uma economia de até R$567,86 por tratamento, no caso da terapia combinada com meropenem, vancomicina e polimixina. Conclusão: A terapia guiada pela PCT reduz tempo de tratamento, internação e mortalidade apresentando impacto considerável na redução dos custos diretos, sendo factível a sua incorporação no cenário analisado

Introduction: The use of the procalcitonin (PCT) biomarker in a rationalized manner can contribute to reducing the excessive usage of antimicrobial, saving resources and improving patient care. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of PCT in reducing antimicrobial treatment time and the financial impact and feasibility of incorporating this technology based on simulated scenarios in a small and medium-complexity hospital. Material and Methods: Literature review, based on the Pubmed database followed by cost analysis in four simulated scenarios, comparing PCR with PCT test. Randomized clinical trials and systematic reviews whose intervention consisted of the use of PCT to guide the duration of antimicrobial treatment were included. Data selection and extraction was carried out by four independent reviewers. The cost analysis was carried out through simulated scenarios with the twelve therapies with the greatest impact on the institution, based on data of costs actually disbursed. Results: The final analysis included 8 articles. PCT resulted in significant reduction of duration of antibiotic treatment, reduction in mortality, length of stay, adverse events and costs. The cost simulation demonstrated that the PCT scenario was more economical for 67% of therapies analyzed, reaching savings up to R$567.86 per treatment, in the case of combined therapy with meropenem, vancomycin and polymyxin.Conclusion: PCT-guided therapy reduces treatment duration, hospitalization and mortality, presenting a considerable impact on reducing direct costs, making it feasible to incorporate it into the analyzed scenario.

Predicting total knee replacement at 2 and 5 years in osteoarthritis patients using machine learning.

Objectives: Knee osteoarthritis is a major cause of physical disability and reduced quality of life, with end-stage disease often treated by total knee replacement (TKR). We set out to develop and externally validate a machine learning model capable of predicting the need for a TKR in 2 and 5 years time using routinely collected health data. Design: A prospective study using datasets Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and the Multicentre Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). OAI data were used to train the models while MOST data formed the external test set. The data were preprocessed using feature selection to curate 45 candidate features including demographics, medical history, imaging assessments, history of intervention and outcome. Setting: The study was conducted using two multicentre USA-based datasets of participants with or at high risk of knee OA. Participants: The study excluded participants with at least one existing TKR. OAI dataset included participants aged 45-79 years of which 3234 were used for training and 809 for internal testing, while MOST involved participants aged 50-79 and 2248 were used for external testing. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome of this study was prediction of TKR onset at 2 and 5 years. Performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) and F1-score and key predictors identified. Results: For the best performing model (gradient boosting machine), the AUC at 2 years was 0.913 (95% CI 0.876 to 0.951), and at 5 years 0.873 (95% CI 0.839 to 0.907). Radiographic-derived features, questionnaire-based assessments alongside the patient's educational attainment were key predictors for these models. Conclusions: Our approach suggests that routinely collected patient data are sufficient to drive a predictive model with a clinically acceptable level of accuracy (AUC>0.7) and is the first such tool to be externally validated. This level of accuracy is higher than previously published models utilising MRI data, which is not routinely collected.

Análise de custo-efetividade do teste de oximetria de pulso na triagem de cardiopatias congênitas / Cost-effectiveness analysis of the pulse oximetry test in screening for congenital heart diseases

Resumo: Introdução: Trata-se de uma tese desenvolvida na Pós-graduação em Enfermagem, na Linha de Pesquisa de Políticas e Práticas de Saúde, Educação e Enfermagem, de maneira a agregar valor à atividade de monitoramento de recém-nascidos, abrangendo a esfera mundial. Seu caráter inovador e sua relevância são fortes, considerando haver cenários de não realização da Triagem de Oximetria de Pulso (TOP) ou de desenvolvimento de técnica incorreta, de maneira que poderá favorecer a ampliação de sua aplicabilidade. Aponta-se que as Cardiopatias Congênitas (CC) são as anomalias de maior incidência nos recém-nascidos, com impacto na Mortalidade Infantil. Seu diagnóstico precoce está relacionado aos melhores desfechos e à sustentabilidade do sistema de saúde. O TOP comprova a importância do impacto social do diagnóstico para a real prevenção dos desfechos mórbidos, das mortes, e dos custos em saúde. Objetivos: Determinar a acurácia do TOP para triagem de CC nas primeiras 48 horas de vida, conforme especificidade e sensibilidade; e, desenvolver análise de custo-efetividade do TOP para triagem de CC. Método: Realizada revisão sistemática de acurácia de teste diagnóstico conforme as recomendações do Jonna Briggs Institute. O protocolo está registrado na plataforma PROSPERO - CRD42021256286 - e, publicado em periódico. Foram selecionados estudos com recém-nascidos sem o diagnóstico prévio de CC, independentemente da idade gestacional ao nascimento, que realizaram o TOP entre as primeiras 48h após o nascimento, em comparação ao exame físico realizado por profissional da saúde, ou estudos que não apresentaram comparadores e sim o diagnóstico de interesse, as CC. Para a seleção dos estudos utilizaram-se bases de dados e a literatura cinzenta. A Análise de Custo-Efetividade foi realizada conforme diretriz do Ministério da Saúde e, sob a perspectiva do SUS - Sistema Único de Saúde. Os dados de custo aplicados foram os disponibilizados em bases de dados nacionais. O modelo foi de Árvore de Decisão, com horizonte temporal de um ano, considerando quatro intervenções: 1) sem o TOP; 2) TOP sem reteste; 3) TOP com 1 reteste e 4) TOP com 2 reteste. Resultados: Na Revisão Sistemática foram incluídos 29 estudos, obtendo-se população total de 388.491 recém-nascidos. O TOP demonstrou sensibilidade de 47% (IC 95%: 43% a 50%) e, especificidade de 98% (IC 95%: 98% a 98%). Em estudos que apresentavam retestes e que incluíram recém-nascidos prematuros foram realizadas análises dos subgrupos, conforme o tempo de nascimento para realização do teste entre 24-48h. Na análise de custo-efetividade evidenciou-se que não realizar o TOP culminou com a estratégia de custo mais elevado, de R$ 85,41 por paciente. Os recém-nascidos triados com TOP + dois retestes possuem uma redução de custo entre R$ 0,21 a R$ 38,78 por paciente, conforme o protocolo aplicado. Conclusão: Para o diagnóstico precoce de CC, o TOP se configura como um teste de moderada sensibilidade, alta especificidade e custo-efetivo. Apresenta relação com o diagnóstico precoce, e contribui com a referência oportuna para atenção em serviço de saúde especializado e de qualidade, desde que na esfera de gestão estejam estabelecidos os acessos. Esta pesquisa é replicável considerando o rigor metodológico, assim como seu desenvolvimento e apresentação.

Abstract: Introduction: This is a thesis developed in the Graduate Program in Nursing, in the Research Line of Health, Education and Nursing Policies and Practices, in order to add value to the activity of monitoring newborns, covering the sphere worldwide. Its innovative character is high, as well as its relevance, considering that there are scenarios of non-performance of Pulse Oximetry Screening (POS), or of development of an incorrect technique, thus favoring the expansion of its applicability. It is pointed out that Congenital Heart Defects (CHD) are the anomalies with the highest incidence in newborns, with an impact on Infant Mortality. Its early diagnosis is related to better outcomes and sustainability of the health system. The POS proves the importance of the social impact of the diagnosis, for the real prevention of morbid outcomes, deaths, and health costs. Objectives: To determine the accuracy of the POS for CHD screening in the first 48 hours of life, according to specificity and sensitivity; and, develop a costeffectiveness analysis of the POS for CHD screening. Method: A systematic review of diagnostic test accuracy was carried out according to the Jonna Briggs Institute recommendations. The protocol is registered on the PROSPERO platform - CRD42021256286 - and published in a journal. Selected studies with newborns without a previous diagnosis of CHD, regardless of gestational age at birth, that performed the POS within the first 48 hours after birth, compared to the physical examination performed by a health professional or studies that did not present comparators, and the diagnosis of interest was CHD. For the selection of studies, databases and gray literature were used. The Cost-Effectiveness Analysis was carried out according to the guidelines of the Ministry of Health and from the perspective of the UHS - Unified Health System. The cost data applied were those available in national databases. The model was a Decision Tree, with a time horizon of one year, considering four interventions: 1) without the POS; 2) POS without retest; 3) POS with 1 retest and 4) POS with 2 retests. Results: The Systematic Review included 29 studies, resulting in a total population of 388,491 newborns. The POS showed a sensitivity of 47% (CI 95%: 43% to 50%) and specificity of 98% (CI 95%: 98% to 98%). In studies that presented retests and that included premature newborns, subgroup analyzes were performed, according to the time of birth for the test to be performed between 24-48 hours. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, it was shown that not performing the POS resulted in the highest cost strategy, R$ 85.41 per patient. Newborns screened with TOP + two retests have a cost reduction of between R$ 0.21 and R$ 38.78 per patient, depending on the protocol applied. Conclusion: For the early diagnosis of CHD, the POS is configured as a test of moderate sensitivity, high specificity and cost-effective. It is related to early diagnosis, and contributes to the timely referral for care in specialized and quality health services, as long as the accesses are established in the management sphere. This research is replicable considering the clarity of its development and presentation.

Application of the ASCO value framework to evaluate the clinical and economic value of enzalutamide and apalutamide in the early stages of prostate cancer in Colombia.

Introduction: Prostate cancer has increased in recent years, increasing the costs associated with its treatment. Second-generation oral antiandrogens have emerged as an attractive therapeutic option. Objective: To compare the health value provided by enzalutamide and apalutamide, by evaluating two stages of prostate cancer: non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) and metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). Methods: To establish, through the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) value framework, a contrast between two technologies in two stages of prostate cancer. The monthly cost of the two technologies was calculated according to the current price regulation norm in Colombia. Results: Enzalutamide showed a higher net health benefit score compared to apalutamide for both nmCRPC (48.33 versus 33.46) and mHSPC (52.0 versus 40.75). The cost per net health benefit point for the nmCRPC stage was $214,723 Colombian Pesos (COP) ($54.84 USD) with enzalutamide compared to $291,925 COP ($74.56 USD) with apalutamide, and for the mHSPC stage was $199,692 COP ($51.00 USD) with enzalutamide and $239,701 COP ($61.22 USD) with apalutamide. Conclusion: After comparing enzalutamide versus apalutamide in the nmCRPC and mHSPC stages through the ASCO value framework, enzalutamide showed a more prominent net clinical benefit and a lower investment per point awarded.

O papel da sociedade civil na inovação e incorporação de dispositivos médicos no Brasil / The role of civil society in the innovation and incorporation of medical devices in Brazil

Objetivo: Abordar o contexto normativo quanto aos processos de participação social nas fases de Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento e Inovação (PD&I) e aos processos de regulação sanitária e de avaliação para incorporação de tecnologias no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Métodos: Pesquisa exploratória descritiva com revisão dos referenciais normativos e análise documental: i) nos marcos regulatórios de inovação brasileiros; ii) na regulação sanitária pela Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (Anvisa); e iii) na avaliação e incorporação de dispositivos médicos na Comissão Nacional de Incorporação de Tecnologias em Saúde no SUS (Conitec). Resultados: Nos sites das instituições governamentais de fomento à Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (CT&I) vinculadas ao Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), observaram-se mecanismos de participação social estabelecidos na legislação. No contexto regulatório, a participação social se insere desde a construção dos regulamentos até etapas-chave do ciclo de vida da tecnologia. Na avaliação de tecnologias, verificou-se ampliação das estratégias de participação, a exemplo da "perspectiva do paciente" na plenária. Entre 64 chamadas públicas realizadas, cinco foram sobre dispositivos médicos. Conclusão: Evidenciou-se a importância da participação social em todas etapas do ciclo de vida dos dispositivos médicos, tendo em vista as especificidades dessas tecnologias. A Anvisa e a Conitec têm ampliado os mecanismos de participação para além dos preconizados em lei. Já nas etapas de PD&I, as iniciativas são incipientes, sendo localizadas ações conforme previsão legal. A ampliação de mecanismos de participação efetiva favorece a construção de soluções para minimizar os desafios de saúde, além de promover maior transparência, valor para a sociedade e confiança nas decisões em saúde brasileira.

Objective: To address the normative context regarding the processes of social participation in the phases of Research, Development and Innovation (RD&I), sanitary regulation and assessment for incorporation of technologies into SUS. Methods: Descriptive exploratory research with review of normative references and document analysis: i) in the regulatory milestones of Brazilian Innovation; ii) sanitary regulation by the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa); and iii) in the assessment and incorporation of medical devices in the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation into SUS (Conitec). Results: In the websites of government institutions that support RD&I linked to the MCTI, mechanisms of social participation established in the legislation were observed. In the regulatory context, social participation is inserted since the construction of regulations until key stages of the technology lifecycle. In the assessment of medical devices, we verified an expansion of engagement strategies, such as the "patient perspective" in the plenary meeting. From its 64 public calls, five were directed to medical devices. Conclusion: The importance of social participation in the

Mapeamento dos bancos de dados em dispositivos médicos: revisão narrativa e o cenário brasileiro para avaliação com dados de mundo real (RWD) / Mapping of database in medical devices: review and the Brazilian scenario for evaluation with real world data (RWD)

Objetivo: Pretendeu-se mapear os bancos de dados governamentais em dispositivos médicos, na perspectiva pública com o intuito de contribuir como fonte para gerar dados de mundo real (RWD) e potencial para subsidiar estudos de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde (ATS). Métodos: Realizada revisão narrativa na base de dados do Embase. Os critérios para inclusão de elegibilidade foram: i) dimensão ampla de RDW nos processos de gestão de tecnologias; e ii) aplicação de RDW em processos regulatórios, cobertura e ATS. Também foram consultados os sistemas do Ministério da Saúde e da Anvisa. Resultados: A busca retornou 1.185 resultados; após leitura dos resumos, foram selecionados 29 artigos, sendo 5 incluídos. Na consulta ao catálogo do Datasus, foram localizados 262 sistemas informatizados; após análise da descrição sumária e principais objetivos, foram selecionados 12 sistemas que geram dados sobre dispositivos médicos. A falta de interoperabilidade dos sistemas é recorrente e a ausência de uma nomenclatura padronizada é um desafio a mais. Conclusão: Há crescente discussão do uso de RWD para subsidiar ATS em todo o ciclo de vida tecnológico, desde regulação até monitoramento do uso, como também para subsidiar análises de custo-efetividade e benefícios clínicos. Assim como nos demais países, o Brasil sistematizou inicialmente os dados administrativos para atender às demandas comerciais e financeiras. Os sistemas não geram dados dos resultados clínicos. São disponibilizados dados das tecnologias dispensadas e dos valores repassados e não são coletadas as informações dos benefícios do uso dessas tecnologias. Com a evolução dos métodos de ATS, a utilização de RWD tornou-se relevante.

Objective: It was intended to map government databases on medical devices, in the public perspective, in order to contribute as a source to generate real world data (RWD) and potential to subsidize Health Technology Assessment (HTA) studies. Methods: A narrative review was carried out in the Embase database. The criteria for inclusion of eligibility were: i) broad dimension of RDW in technology management processes; and ii) application of RDW in regulatory processes, coverage and HTA. The systems of the Ministry of Health and Anvisa were also consulted. Results: Results: The search returned 1,185 results, after reading the abstracts, 29 articles were selected, 5 of which were included. The catalog of Datasus database were consulted, 262 summaries with the description and the main objectives were analyzed, 12 systems were selected systems that generate medical devices. The lack of interoperability of systems is recurrent and the absence of a standardized nomenclature is an additional challenge. Conclusion: There is a growing discussion about the use of RWD to subsidize HTA throughout the technological life cycle, from regulation to monitoring of use, as well as to subsidize the examination of cost-effectiveness and clinical benefits. As in other countries, Brazil has systematized administrative data for commercial and financial data demands. The systems do not generate data on clinical outcomes. Data provided are on dispensed technologies, on transferred values and are not collected on the benefits of using these technologies. With the evolution of HTA methods, the use of RWD has become relevant.

Integrating Empirical Analysis and Normative Inquiry in Health Technology Assessment: The Values in Doing Assessments of Health Technologies Approach.

Health technology assessment (HTA) aims, through empirical analysis, to shed light on the value of health technologies (O'Rourke et al. [2020, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 36, 187-90]). HTA is, then, where facts and values meet. But how, where, and when do facts and values meet in HTA? Currently, HTA is usually portrayed as a sequential process, starting with empirical analysis (assessment), followed by a deliberation on the implications of the findings for a judgment of a health technology's value (appraisal). In this paper, we will argue that in HTA, empirical analysis and normative inquiry are much more closely entwined. In fact, as we hope to show, normative commitments act as an indispensable guide for the collection and interpretation of empirical evidence. Drawing on policy sciences, we will suggest a concrete methodology that can help HTA practitioners to integrate empirical analysis and normative inquiry in a transparent way. The proposed methodology can be conceived as a concrete means for conducting a scoping exercise in HTA. Moreover, it offers a distinct way of giving stakeholders a structural and constructive role in HTA. This paper outlines the approach developed by the values in doing assessments of health technologies project, a project funded by the Erasmus+ program (contract number 2018-1-NL01-KA203-038960), which is the European Union's program to support education, training, youth, and sport in Europe. The project has resulted in an E-learning course, an accompanying handbook, and a consensus statement, all freely available from the project's website www.validatehta.eu.