Evidence for Infant-directed Speech Preference Is Consistent Across Large-scale, Multi-site Replication and Meta-analysis.

There is substantial evidence that infants prefer infant-directed speech (IDS) to adult-directed speech (ADS). The strongest evidence for this claim has come from two large-scale investigations: i) a community-augmented meta-analysis of published behavioral studies and ii) a large-scale multi-lab replication study. In this paper, we aim to improve our understanding of the IDS preference and its boundary conditions by combining and comparing these two data sources across key population and design characteristics of the underlying studies. Our analyses reveal that both the meta-analysis and multi-lab replication show moderate effect sizes (d ≈ 0.35 for each estimate) and that both of these effects persist when relevant study-level moderators are added to the models (i.e., experimental methods, infant ages, and native languages). However, while the overall effect size estimates were similar, the two sources diverged in the effects of key moderators: both infant age and experimental method predicted IDS preference in the multi-lab replication study, but showed no effect in the meta-analysis. These results demonstrate that the IDS preference generalizes across a variety of experimental conditions and sampling characteristics, while simultaneously identifying key differences in the empirical picture offered by each source individually and pinpointing areas where substantial uncertainty remains about the influence of theoretically central moderators on IDS preference. Overall, our results show how meta-analyses and multi-lab replications can be used in tandem to understand the robustness and generalizability of developmental phenomena.

Education increases patience: Evidence from a change in a compulsory schooling law.

I investigate the causal effect of education on time preferences. To deal with the endogeneity of education, I exploit exogenous variation in education imposed by a Turkish school reform that raised compulsory education from five to eight years. I find that education causes individuals to make more patient inter-temporal choices but does not induce them to report being more patient. I also provide evidence that the effect of education on patient inter-temporal choices does not operate through changes in financial well-being.

Who is chronically obese in Indonesia? The role of individual preferences.

Numerous studies have confirmed the relationship between individual risk and time preference and obesity. Nevertheless, none has studied the effect of these attitudes on chronic (long-term) obesity. This study used Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) data from 16,366 individuals. It tracked their obesity status in 2007 and 2014 by calculating body mass index, the ratio between body weight and square of height. Besides the conventional risk-averse and risk-tolerant behaviour, the IFLS sample includes people who fear uncertainty related to the status quo bias. The ordered logit regression results show that past impatience, risk tolerance, and status quo bias behaviour (in 2007) are associated with transient or chronic obesity, while only current behaviour of status quo bias (in 2014) is associated with obesity. Furthermore, our study confirms that chronic obesity in Indonesia is prevalent among highly educated, high-income, and urban-centric individuals, exacerbated by impatience, risk tolerance, and uncertainty aversion. Thus, providing information on the risk of obesity and food calories, giving the incentive to avoid obesity, and improving the quality of built environments such as public parks, public transportation, and footpath could help prevent the rising obesity prevalence.

Do risk, time and prosocial preferences predict risky sexual behaviour of youths in a low-income, high-risk setting?

Young people in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly at high risk of sexually transmitted infections. Little is known about their preferences and even less about their association with risky sexual behaviour. We conducted incentivized economic experiments to measure risk, time and prosocial preferences in Zimbabwe. Preferences measured at baseline predict biomarker and self-reported measures of risky sexual behaviour gathered 12 months later. We find robust evidence that individuals more altruistic at baseline are more likely to be Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2 (HSV-2) positive 12 months later. Analysis by sex shows this association is driven by our sample of women. Having more sexual partners is associated with greater risk tolerance amongst men and greater impatience amongst women. Results highlight heterogeneity in the association between preferences and risky sexual behaviour.

Cognitive load enhances patience rather than impulsivity.

Previous studies on the impact of cognitive load on time preference has led to conflicting results. However, these studies either failed to consider response randomness while analyzing behavioral data or involved a defective control level for a clear conclusion regarding the impacts of cognitive load. With two experiments using an adaptive approach to generating appropriate individual-specific stimuli and an additional, preregistered partial replication study, the current research provided consistent evidence that imposing cognitive load with a 2-back auditory memory task would produce simultaneously more patient and more random intertemporal choices. The finding of changed time preference was at odds with the dual-process account thereof but provided clear support for the role of reduced time sensitivity in intertemporal choices under cognitive load. Results of relevant model comparison did not support an account built upon more usage of heuristic strategies under cognitive load, either. Future research could examine boundary conditions for the dual-process and time-sensitivity accounts of time preference such as task features and individual characteristics that moderate the impact of cognitive load on time preference.

Sirens of stress: Financial risk, time preferences, and post-traumatic stress disorder: Evidence from the Israel-Hamas Conflict.

This research explores the relationship between post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resulting from intense violence during the "Guardian of the Walls" operation in 2021, and economic decision-making. We surveyed civilians in Israel who experienced Gaza rocket attacks to understand the influence of PTSD on their financial decisions. The results revealed an interesting trend: PTSD sufferers showed a preference for immediate consumption over future savings and demonstrated a decrease in their willingness to take economic risks. These findings are significant because they offer insight into how trauma affects financial decisions, and crucial information for those helping PTSD sufferers-their relatives and therapists. It is essential for them to be aware of these tendencies to provide appropriate advice and assistance, helping the victims cope with their PTSD and make effective financial decisions in their daily lives.

When to be vaccinated? What to consider? Modelling decision-making and time preference for COVID-19 vaccine through a conjoint experiment.

How do citizens choose COVID-19 vaccines, and when do they wish to be vaccinated? A choice-based conjoint experiment was conducted in Hong Kong to examine factors that shape citizens' preference toward COVID-19 vaccines and their time preference to be vaccinated, which is overlooked in extant literature. Results suggest people are most concerned about vaccines' efficacy and severe side-effects, and that cash incentives are not useful in enhancing vaccine appeal. The majority of respondents show low intention for immediate vaccination, and many of them want to delay their vaccination. Further analysis shows that their time preference is shaped more by respondent characteristics than vaccine attributes. In particular, confidence in the vaccine, trust in government, and working in high-risk professions are associated with earlier timing for vaccine uptake. Meanwhile, forced COVID testing would delay vaccination. The findings offer a novel view in understanding how people decide whether and when to receive new vaccines, which have pivotal implications for a head start of any mass vaccination programs.

The effect of duration and time preference on the gap between adult and child health state valuations in time trade-off.

Composite time trade-off (cTTO) utilities have been found to be higher when adults value health states for children than for themselves. It is not clear if these differences reflect adults assigning truly higher utilities to the same health state in different perspectives, or if they are caused by other factors, which are not accounted for in the valuation procedure. We test if the difference between children's and adults' cTTO valuations changes if a longer duration than the standard 10 years is used. Personal interviews with a representative sample of 151 adults in the UK were conducted. We employed the cTTO method to estimate utilities of four different health states, where adults considered states both from their own and a 10-year-old child's perspective, for durations of 10 and 20 years. We corrected the cTTO valuations for perspective-specific time preferences in a separate task, again for both perspectives. We replicate the finding that cTTO utilities are higher for the child perspective than for the adult perspective, although the difference is only significant when controlling for other variables in a mixed effects regression. Time preferences are close to 0 on average, and smaller for children than adults. After correcting TTO utilities for time preferences, the effect of perspective is no longer significant. No differences were found for cTTO tasks completed with a 10- or 20-year duration. Our results suggest that the child-adult gap is partially related to differences in time preferences and, hence, that correcting cTTO utilities for these preferences could be useful.

Application of the symbolic regression program AI-Feynman to psychology.

The discovery of hidden laws in data is the core challenge in many fields, from the natural sciences to the social sciences. However, this task has historically relied on human intuition and experience in many areas, including psychology. Therefore, discovering laws using artificial intelligence (AI) has two significant advantages. First, it makes it possible to detect laws that humans cannot discover. Second, it will help construct more accurate theories. An AI called AI-Feynman was released in a very different field, and it performed impressively. Although AI-Feynman was initially designed to discover laws in physics, it can also work well in psychology. This research aims to examine whether AI-Feynman can be a new data analysis method for inter-temporal choice experiments by testing whether it can discover the hyperbolic discount model as a discount function. An inter-temporal choice experiment was conducted to accomplish these objectives, and the data were input into AI-Feynman. As a result, seven discount function candidates were proposed by AI-Feynman. One candidate was the hyperbolic discount model, which is currently considered the most accurate. The three functions of the root-mean-squared errors were superior to the hyperbolic discount model. Moreover, one of the three candidates was more "hyperbolic" than the standard hyperbolic discount function. These results indicate two things. One is that AI-Feynman can be a new data analysis method for inter-temporal choice experiments. The other is that AI-Feynman can discover discount functions that humans cannot find.

Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach.

This paper considers the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on long-term individual lifetime consumption profiles. The framework for the analysis is a model that extends Strulik (2021) to include the government sector, where time preference is determined by individual health damage (deficit) distinct from normal aging. Thus, the health damage caused by COVID-19 changes the rate of time preference and consequently affects the Euler equation for consumption. Our theoretical contribution is the consistent incorporation of public health investment into the existing model to understand the effect of government measures against a pandemic. Numerical analysis based on this model is used to estimate changes in health status over time, trends in the rate of time preference, and individual lifetime consumption profiles, taking into account differences in age at the time of the pandemic and the nature of the government responses. Because the long-term negative economic impact would be enormous, we should avoid advocating for "living with COVID-19" without due consideration. The reopening of the economy must be accompanied by a commitment to the containment and elimination of infections with future novel coronaviruses.

Differential methylation in CD44 and SEC23A is associated with time preference in older individuals.

Time preference is a measure used to ascertain the level of which individuals prefer smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards. We explored how an individual's time preference associates with their epigenetic profile. Time preferences were ascertained by asking participants of the Northern Ireland COhort for the Longitudinal study of Ageing to make a series of choices between two hypothetical income scenarios. From these, eight 'time preference' categories were derived, ranging from "patient" to "impatient" on an ordinal scale. The Infinium High Density Methylation Assay, MethylationEPIC (Illumina) was used to evaluate the status of 862,927 CpGs. Time preference and DNA methylation data were obtained for 1648 individuals. Four analyses were conducted, assessing the methylation patterns at single site resolution between patient and impatient individuals using two adjustment models. In this discovery cohort analysis, two CpG sites were identified with significantly different levels of methylation (p < 9 × 10-8) between the individuals allocated to the patient group and the remaining population following adjustment for covariates; cg08845621 within CD44 and cg18127619 within SEC23A. Neither of these genes have previously been linked to time preference. Epigenetic modifications have not previously been linked to time preference using a population cohort but they may represent important biomarkers of accumulated, complex determinants of this trait. Further analysis is warranted of both the top-ranked results and of DNA methylation as an important link between measurable biomarkers and health behaviours.

Thinking about neither death nor poverty affects delay discounting, but episodic foresight does: Three replications of the effects of priming on time preferences.

We outline three attempts to replicate experiments that reported priming effects on time preferences measured by delay discounting. Experiment 1 tested the claim that images of poverty prime impulsive choice in people from less affluent backgrounds compared with people from more affluent backgrounds. Experiment 2 tested the claim that mortality salience-thinking about death-primes people to place more value on the future than people who thought about dental surgery. Experiment 3 tested the claim that an episodic foresight manipulation primes greater discounting than no episodic foresight. Experiments 1 and 2 failed to replicate the effects of priming on discount rates. Experiment 3 was a successful and very close replication of the effect of episodic foresight on discount rates.

Time preference, illness, and death.

This paper investigates the power of time preference to predict illness and premature mortality in adulthood. Using a unique Swedish cohort of 12,956 individuals born in 1953, interviewed in 1966, and followed with register data up to 2018, the paper reports that more patient adolescents are 17-21% less likely to die before the age of 65 years. More patient adolescents have fewer hospitalizations and diagnoses in their adult life and are less likely to be diagnosed with conditions associated with lifestyle risk factors. The investigated channels for the relationship between time preference and future health include lifestyle, education attainment, and future income. Controlling for education and income reduces the coefficient for time preference on premature mortality by one-fourth.

Time preference and nutrition label use: Evidence from China.

The assumption that label use behavior is, to some extent, intertemporal decision behavior because the benefit of label use cannot be realized instantly, is insufficiently considered. This paper is the first to examine directly if food nutrition label use is associated with behavioral inclinations in time preference. Using a theoretical analysis, this paper illustrates that individuals with lower present bias and higher long-run patience tend to use nutrition labels more frequently. In an empirical investigation, an analysis of a nationwide survey of 1220 Chinese adults confirmed that time preference relates to label use behavior, not only via impatience but also via hyperbolic discounting. Results of this study can help to better understand label-use behavior. They also provide important policy implications for the design of proper strategies for improving food nutrition label use, as well as help consumers in China and other developing countries choose healthier diets.

Evaluation Scale or Output Format: The Attentional Mechanism Underpinning Time Preference Reversal.

Time preference reversals refers to systematic inconsistencies between preferences and valuations in intertemporal choice. When faced with a pair of intertemporal options, people preferred the smaller-sooner option but assign a higher price to the larger-later one. Different hypotheses postulate that the differences in evaluation scale or output format between the choice and the bid tasks cause the preference reversal. However, these hypotheses have not been distinguished. In the present study, we conducted a hybrid task, which shares the same evaluation scale with the bid task and shares the same output format with the choice task. By comparing these three tasks, we can figure out the key reason for time preference reversal. The eye-tracking measures reflecting attention allocation, cognitive effort and information search pattern were examined. Results showed that participants' time preference and eye-tracking measures in the hybrid task were similar to those in the choice task, but different from those in the bid task. Our findings suggest that the output format is the core reason for time preference reversal and may deepen our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie time preference reversal.

Overweight/Obesity and Time Preference: Evidence from a Survey among Adults in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight and obesity is a global problem incurring substantial health and economic implications. This has also been highlighted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic which has disproportionately affected overweight and obese individuals. Most of the interventions have concentrated on promotion of physical activities and healthy eating which may involve current sacrifices for future health gains. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between bodyweight and how individuals state they would trade-off immediate income for higher amounts in the future (time preference). METHODS: An online survey was conducted targeting adults aged >16 years in the UK (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales) from January 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016. Using paid online adverts, as well as personal and professional networks for distribution of links to the online survey, the questionnaire asked respondents to report socio-economic and demographic information, height, and weight and to complete a time preference exercise. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics; associations were explored between BMI and respondents' characteristics and time preference using Spearman rank-order correlation and χ2 tests as appropriate. We adopted STROBE guidelines for the reporting of the study. RESULTS: A total of 561 responses were analysed (female = 293, males = 268). The relationship between time preference and overweight/obesity, using BMI as the measure is highly significant (χ2 = 95.92: p < 0.001). Individuals of normal weight have low time preferences and are more likely to invest in activities in a bid to reap future health benefits. There are also significant relationships between BMI and employment status (χ2 = 37.03; p < 0.001), physical activities (p < 0.0001), income levels (χ2 = 6.68; p < 0.035), family orientation, i.e., with or without children (χ2 = 12.88; p < 0.012), and ethnicity (χ2 = 18.31; p < 0.001). These imply that individuals in employment and with children in their families are less likely to be overweight or obese compared to those who do not. People from black backgrounds are also more likely to be overweight or obese and have higher time preferences compared to people from white backgrounds. DISCUSSIONS/CONCLUSIONS: People's preventive behaviours today can be predicted by their time preference and this understanding could be vital in improving population's uptake and maintenance of overweight and obesity prevention actions. People who have low time preference are more likely to invest time and resources in physical activities and healthy lifestyles to reap future health benefits hence value utilities-in-anticipation. Public health programmes should therefore use the knowledge of the association between time preference and overweight/obesity to inform designs of intervention programmes.

Preferences predict who commits crime among young men.

Understanding who commits crime and why is a key topic in social science and important for the design of crime prevention policy. In theory, people who commit crime face different social and economic incentives for criminal activity than other people, or they evaluate the costs and benefits of crime differently because they have different preferences. Empirical evidence on the role of preferences is scarce. Theoretically, risk-tolerant, impatient, and self-interested people are more prone to commit crime than risk-averse, patient, and altruistic people. We test these predictions with a unique combination of data where we use incentivized experiments to elicit the preferences of young men and link these experimental data to their criminal records. In addition, our data allow us to control extensively for other characteristics such as cognitive skills, socioeconomic background, and self-control problems. We find that preferences are strongly associated with actual criminal behavior. Impatience and, in particular, risk tolerance are still strong predictors when we include the full battery of controls. Crime propensities are 8 to 10 percentage points higher for the most risk-tolerant individuals compared to the most risk averse. This effect is half the size of the effect of cognitive skills, which is known to be a very strong predictor of criminal behavior. Looking into different types of crime, we find that preferences significantly predict property offenses, while self-control problems significantly predict violent, drug, and sexual offenses.

Determinants of Lifestyle Choices Among South Korean College Students: An Experimental Analysis.

PURPOSE: Based on theoretical predictions from human capital theory, the aim of this exploratory study is to analyze the relationship between experimentally elicited, incentivized economic preference parameters, Big Five and Grit personality traits, cognitive ability, and the Alameda Seven lifestyles: smoking, drinking excessively, being overweight or obese, experiencing stress, following a healthy diet, exercising, and sleeping enough. In addition, self-reported general physical and mental health are analyzed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data collection took place in an incentivized paper-and-pencil experiment. Undergraduate students were recruited as subjects, with the requirement that they be freshmen, but no restrictions based on gender, major, or age. A pre-test and three experimental sessions were conducted in March and in April 2018, with a total of 178 subjects participating. After deleting observations with missing values, a total of n = 138 subjects remained. Regression analysis (multivariate probit models, resulting marginal effects and changes in predicted probabilities of adopting a lifestyle for "ideal types") was used to analyze and compare the determinants of the Alameda Seven health behaviors. RESULTS: Findings suggest that preference parameters, a measure of cognitive ability, and Big Five personality traits are statistically significantly estimated in regressions for the determinants of adopting Alameda Seven health behaviors, but the Grit score is only statistically significantly estimated in a regression for the determinants of reported better general mental health. CONCLUSION: The findings regarding preference parameters partly lend support to predictions from human capital theory and partly confirm previous findings in health psychology. Those results might be explained by the relatively small sample size and the inclusion of a measure of cognitive ability in addition to personality traits and preferences.

You are not in the army now! A field study on the impact of a Preparation for Civilian Life program on young soldiers.

Recent years have seen the implementation of educational programs aimed at developing future orientation and better employability skills, mostly for people new to or returning to the job market. In a field study, we investigated the impact of a 5-day program on reintegration to civilian life on young Israeli combat soldiers' time preferences, gratitude, patriotism, and perceptions of their combat experience. Questionnaires administered before and after the program revealed a positive effect on future orientation but a negative effect on gratitude and perceptions of the combat experience. Although the positive effect on future orientation is in line with the program design, the negative effects found should be taken into consideration when planning or improving similar educational programs.

Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination intentions and attitudes in France.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to investigate the factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination intentions and attitudes in France. STUDY DESIGN: An online cross-sectional study was conducted among a representative sample of the French population between November 20th and 23rd 2020 (N = 1146). METHODS: Factors associated with the intention to get vaccinated and with COVID-19 vaccine attitudes were estimated using ordered logistic and multinomial logistic regressions, respectively. Independent variables of interest include COVID-19 and vaccine perceptions, trust, endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy theories and time/risk preferences. RESULTS: Only 30.5% of our respondents would agree to get vaccinated against COVID-19 during the first semester of 2021 while 31.1% declare being unsure of their vaccination intentions. COVID-19 risk perceptions are associated with vaccination intentions and attitudes. Individual and collective benefits of the vaccine and the concerns over its safety are strongly associated with COVID-19 vaccination intentions and attitudes. Vaccine acceptors are more willing to take risks in the health domain compared with vaccine hesitant respondents which indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine is perceived as a greater health risk than the COVID-19 itself by some respondents. We also find a positive association between future preference and the willingness to get vaccinated. CONCLUSION: Awareness campaigns should be conducted to enhance vaccination uptake among vaccine hesitant individuals. These campaigns could highlight the positive benefit-risk balance of the COVID-19 vaccines or the short-term benefits of vaccination and should reinsure the public on the safety of the COVID-19 vaccines.