RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Behavioral phenotypes that predict future weight gain are needed to identify children susceptible to obesity. OBJECTIVES: This prospective study developed an eating behavior risk score to predict change in adiposity over 1 y in children. METHODS: Data from 6 baseline visits (Time 1, T1) and a 1-y follow-up visit (Time 2, T2) were collected from 76, 7- to 8-y-old healthy children recruited from Central Pennsylvania. At T1, children had body mass index (BMI) percentiles <90 and were classified with either high (n = 33; maternal BMI ≥30 kg/m2) or low (n = 43; maternal BMI ≤25 kg/m2) familial risk for obesity. Appetitive traits and eating behaviors were assessed at T1. Adiposity was measured at T1 and T2 using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, with a main outcome of fat mass index (FMI; total body fat mass divided by height in meters squared). Hierarchical linear regressions determined which eating measures improved prediction of T2 FMI after adjustment for covariates in the baseline model (T1 FMI, sex, income, familial risk, and Tanner stage). RESULTS: Four eating measures-Portion susceptibility, Appetitive traits, loss of control eating, and eating rate-were combined into a standardized summary score called PACE. PACE improved the baseline model to predict 80% variance in T2 FMI. PACE was positively associated with the increase in FMI in children from T1 to T2, independent of familial risk (r = 0.58, P < 0.001). Although PACE was higher in girls than boys (P < 0.05), it did not differ by familial risk, income, or education. CONCLUSIONS: PACE represents a cumulative eating behavior risk score that predicts adiposity gain over 1 y in middle childhood. If PACE similarly predicts adiposity gain in a cohort with greater racial and socioeconomic diversity, it will inform the development of interventions to prevent obesity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03341247.