Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes.

Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.

Integración de la Conectividad Funcional y el Manejo de Incendios para Mejores Resultados de Conservación Resumen La abundancia media de animales terrestres ha disminuido en un 50% desde 1970 en todo el mundo y las poblaciones de animales enfrentan amenazas continuas asociadas con la pérdida del hábitat, la fragmentación, el cambio climático y la perturbación. El cambio climático puede influir directa e indirectamente sobre la calidad de los hábitats permanecientes al precipitar incrementos en la extensión, frecuencia y severidad de la perturbación natural, como por ejemplo los incendios. Las especies enfrentan las amenazas combinadas de la modificación de hábitats, climas cambiantes y regímenes alterados de perturbación, cada uno de los cuales puede interactuar con los otros y tener impactos en cascada sobre las poblaciones animales. Habitualmente, las agencias de conservación tienen capacidades limitadas para mitigar las tasas de alteración de hábitats, fragmentación del hábitat o cambio climático. A pesar de esto, el manejo de incendios cada vez se usa más a nivel mundial para reducir el riesgo de incendios forestales y para producir resultados de conservación. Una estrategia popular para el manejo de incendios ecológicos involucra la creación de mosaicos de incendios para promover la diversidad de animales. Sin embargo, esta estrategia tiene dos limitaciones fundamentales: no considera el efecto del fuego sobre el movimiento de los animales dentro o entre los fragmentos de hábitat y pasa por alto las implicaciones del régimen actual de incendios para la persistencia a largo plazo de la población. Los patrones espaciales y temporales en la historia de los incendios pueden influir sobre el movimiento animal, lo cual es esencial para la supervivencia de los animales individuales, el mantenimiento de la diversidad genética y la persistencia de las poblaciones, especies y ecosistemas. Argumentamos que existe un amplio potencial para que los manejadores de incendios manipulen los patrones de movimiento de los animales; mejoren la conectividad funcional, el flujo génico y la diversidad genética; e incrementen la capacidad de las poblaciones de persistir bajo condiciones ambientales cambiantes. Los avances metodológicos recientes, como el modelado de la conectividad espaciotemporal, la simulación espacial basada en individuos y el modelado de regímenes de incendios, pueden integrarse para obtener mejores resultados para la biodiversidad en paisajes propensos a incendios y modificados por el humano.

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates.

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.

Conserving Himalayan birds in highly seasonal forested and agricultural landscapes.

The Himalayas are a global biodiversity hotspot threatened by widespread agriculture and pasture expansion. To determine the impact of these threats on biodiversity and to formulate appropriate conservation strategies, we surveyed birds along elevational gradients in primary forest and in human-dominated lands spanning a gradient of habitat alteration, including forest-agriculture mosaics, mixed agriculture mosaics, and pasture. We surveyed birds during the breeding season and in winter to account for pronounced seasonal migrations. Bird abundance and richness in forest-agriculture and mixed agriculture mosaics were equal to or greater than in primary forest and greater than in pasture at local and landscape scales during both seasons. Pasture had greater abundance and richness of birds in winter than primary forest, but richness was greater in primary forest at the landscape scale during the breeding season. All 4 land-use types held unique species, suggesting that all must be retained in the landscape to conserve the entire avifauna. Our results suggest forest-agriculture and mixed agriculture mosaics are particularly important for sustaining Himalayan bird communities during winter and primary forests are vital for sustaining Himalayan bird communities during the breeding season. Further conversion of forest-agriculture and mixed agriculture mosaics to pasture would likely result in significant biodiversity losses that would disproportionately affect breeding species. To ensure comprehensive conservation, strategies in the western Himalayas must balance the protection of intact primary forest with the minimization of pasture expansion.

Time discounting and the decision to protect areas that are near and threatened or remote and cheap to acquire.

Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade-off commonly arise in spatial planning. I used models of land-use change near a deforestation frontier to examine this trade-off. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future. I used an ecological and economic discount rate to weight these benefits and costs. A large economic discount rate favored protecting more remote areas, whereas a large, positive ecological discount rate favored protecting habitat near the current deforestation frontier. The decision over where to protect was also affected by the influence economic factors had on landowners' decisions, the rate of technological change, and ecological heterogeneity of the landscape. How benefits and costs through time are accounted for warrants careful consideration when specifying conservation objectives. It may provide a niche axis along which conservation organizations differentiate themselves when competing for donor funding or other support.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat.

Bird-community responses to habitat creation in a long-term, large-scale natural experiment.

Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land-use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape-scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post-agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10-160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0-17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local- and landscape-scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape context and that knowledge gained from studies of habitat fragmentation and loss should be used to inform habitat creation with caution because the outcomes are not necessarily reciprocal.

The importance of agricultural lands for Himalayan birds in winter.

The impacts of land-use change on biodiversity in the Himalayas are poorly known, notwithstanding widespread deforestation and agricultural intensification in this highly biodiverse region. Although intact primary forests harbor many Himalayan birds during breeding, a large number of bird species use agricultural lands during winter. We assessed how Himalayan bird species richness, abundance, and composition during winter are affected by forest loss stemming from agriculture and grazing. Bird surveys along 12 elevational transects within primary forest, low-intensity agriculture, mixed subsistence agriculture, and intensively grazed pastures in winter revealed that bird species richness and abundance were greatest in low-intensity and mixed agriculture, intermediate in grazed pastures, and lowest in primary forest at both local and landscape scales; over twice as many species and individuals were recorded in low-intensity agriculture than in primary forest. Bird communities in primary forests were distinct from those in all other land-use classes, but only 4 species were unique to primary forests. Low-, medium-, and high-intensity agriculture harbored 32 unique species. Of the species observed in primary forest, 80% had equal or greater abundance in low-intensity agricultural lands, underscoring the value of these lands in retaining diverse community assemblages at high densities in winter. Among disturbed landscapes, bird species richness and abundance declined as land-use intensity increased, especially in high-intensity pastures. Our results suggest that agricultural landscapes are important for most Himalayan bird species in winter. But agricultural intensification-especially increased grazing-will likely result in biodiversity losses. Given that forest reserves alone may inadequately conserve Himalayan birds in winter, comprehensive conservation strategies in the region must go beyond protecting intact primary forests and ensure that low-intensity agricultural lands are not extensively converted to high-intensity pastures.

Mapping opportunities and challenges for rewilding in Europe.

Farmland abandonment takes place across the world due to socio-economic and ecological drivers. In Europe agricultural and environmental policies aim to prevent abandonment and halt ecological succession. Ecological rewilding has been recently proposed as an alternative strategy. We developed a framework to assess opportunities for rewilding across different dimensions of wilderness in Europe. We mapped artificial light, human accessibility based on transport infrastructure, proportion of harvested primary productivity (i.e., ecosystem productivity appropriated by humans through agriculture or forestry), and deviation from potential natural vegetation in areas projected to be abandoned by 2040. At the continental level, the levels of artificial light were low and the deviation from potential natural vegetation was high in areas of abandonment. The relative importance of wilderness metrics differed regionally and was strongly connected to local environmental and socio-economic contexts. Large areas of projected abandonment were often located in or around Natura 2000 sites. Based on these results, we argue that management should be tailored to restore the aspects of wilderness that are lacking in each region. There are many remaining challenges regarding biodiversity in Europe, but megafauna species are already recovering. To further potentiate large-scale rewilding, Natura 2000 management would need to incorporate rewilding approaches. Our framework can be applied to assessing rewilding opportunities and challenges in other world regions, and our results could guide redirection of subsidies to manage social-ecological systems.

Mapeo de Oportunidades y Retos para el Retorno de la Vida Silvestre Resumen El abandono de tierras agrícolas ocurre en todo el mundo debido a factores socio-económicos y ecológicos. En Europa, las políticas ambientales y agrícolas tienen el objetivo de prevenir el abandono y frenar la sucesión ecológica. La reintroducción o el retorno de la vida silvestre ("rewilding") representa una estrategia alternativa a esto. Desarrollamos un marco de trabajo para evaluar las oportunidades de reintroducción en diferentes dimensiones de naturaleza a lo largo de Europa. Mapeamos la luz artificial, la accesibilidad para humanos con base en la infraestructura de transporte, la proporción de productividad primaria (es decir, la productividad del ecosistema incautado por los humanos por medio de la agricultura o la silvicultura) y la divergencia de vegetación natural potencial en áreas que se proyecta estarán abandonadas para el 2040. A nivel continental, los niveles de luz artificial fueron bajos y la divergencia de vegetación natural potencial fue alta en las áreas de abandono. La importancia relativa de las medidas de naturaleza difirió regionalmente y estuvieron conectadas fuertemente a los contextos ambientales y socio-económicos locales. Las grandes áreas de abandono proyectado estuvieron localizadas frecuentemente en o alrededor de sitios Natura 2000. Con base en estos resultados, argumentamos que el manejo debería ser fabricado para restaurar los aspectos de la naturaleza que son carentes en cada región. Todavía quedan muchos obstáculos con respecto a la biodiversidad en Europa, pero las especies de megafauna ya se están recuperando. Para potenciar aún más la reintroducción a gran escala, el manejo de Natura 2000 necesitaría incorporar estrategias de reintroducción. Nuestro marco de trabajo puede aplicarse a la evaluación de las oportunidades de reintroducción y a los obstáculos en otras regiones del mundo, y nuestros resultados pueden guiar la redirección de los subsidios para manejar los sistemas socio-ecológicos.

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century.

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land-use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst-case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land-use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse.

Escenarios de Pérdida de Mamíferos Mayores en Europa para el Siglo XXI Resumen Las distribuciones y poblaciones de los mamíferos grandes están declinando a nivel global, lo que conlleva un aumento en el riesgo de su extinción. Pronosticamos la distribución de los mamíferos europeos existentes (17 carnívoros y 10 ungulados) con base en dos escenarios Rio+20 de desarrollo socio-económico: la normalidad y el impacto reducido a través de los cambios en el consumo humano de los recursos naturales. Estos escenarios están conectados a escenarios de cambio en el uso de suelo y cambio climático por medio de la asignación espacial de la conversión de suelo hasta el año 2050. Usamos un marco de trabajo jerárquico para pronosticar la extensión y la distribución de los hábitats de los mamíferos con base en las preferencias de hábitat de las especies (como se describe en la base de datos de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de especies) dentro de un espacio climático adecuado para acomodar a las especies en su extensión geográfica actual. Analizamos la variación geográfica y taxonómica de la pérdida de hábitat para los mamíferos mayores y el efecto potencial de la política de impacto reducido sobre la mitigación de pérdidas. En los escenarios en promedio, se predijo que los mamíferos mayores de Europa perderían el 10% de su hábitat para 2050 (25% el peor de los casos). La pérdida pronosticada fue mucho más alta para las especies en el noroeste de Europa, en donde se espera perder hábitats debido al cambio climático y de uso de suelo. Se pronosticó que los cambios en los patrones de consumo humano mejorarían considerablemente la conservación del hábitat de los grandes mamíferos de Europa, pero no lo suficiente para reducir el riesgo de extinción si las especies no se pueden adaptar localmente al cambio climático o a la dispersión.