Development of a hydrogen peroxide-inactivated vaccine that protects against viscerotropic yellow fever in a non-human primate model.

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is endemic in >40 countries and causes viscerotropic disease with up to 20%-60% mortality. Successful live-attenuated yellow fever (YF) vaccines were developed in the mid-1930s, but their use is restricted or formally contraindicated in vulnerable populations including infants, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems. In these studies, we describe the development of a next-generation hydrogen peroxide-inactivated YF vaccine and determine immune correlates of protection based on log neutralizing index (LNI) and neutralizing titer-50% (NT50) studies. In addition, we compare neutralizing antibody responses and protective efficacy of hydrogen peroxide-inactivated YF vaccine candidates to live-attenuated YFV-17D (YF-VAX) in a rhesus macaque model of viscerotropic YF. Our results indicate that an optimized, inactivated YF vaccine elicits protective antibody responses that prevent viral dissemination and lethal infection in rhesus macaques and may be a suitable alternative for vaccinating vulnerable populations who are not eligible to receive replicating live-attenuated YF vaccines.

Identifying a Level of Neutralizing Antibody That Correlates With Protection From Clinical Mumps Disease During a 2017 Mumps Outbreak Among Military Service Members.

Background: In 2017, a mumps outbreak occurred in a US military barracks. Serum collected at service entry was used to compare pre-exposure with presumptive vaccine-induced antibody levels from persons who developed mumps (cases) and potentially exposed persons who did not develop mumps (non-cases). Sufficient information to determine levels of exposure during the outbreak was not available. Methods: Pre-outbreak serum samples from the Department of Defense Serum Repository were available from 254 potentially exposed service members. Twelve developed clinical symptoms and had post-outbreak serum collected. All sera were tested with a mumps-specific enzyme immunoassay for immunoglobulin M, immunoglobulin G (IgG), and IgG avidity. The neutralizing antibodies to vaccine strain (Jeryl Lynn [JL], genotype A) and wildtype virus (genotype G) was assessed by a plaque reduction neutralization test. A Fisher exact test and receiver operator characteristic curve were used to analyze the antibody response for non-cases and mumps cases. Results: Eight mumps cases were laboratory confirmed. Pre-outbreak neutralizing antibody titers to JL and genotype G mumps virus and pre-outbreak IgG index values were proportionately lower for most cases as compared with exposed non-cases. When compared with potentially exposed non-cases, cases with clinical symptoms had greater odds of having a pre-outbreak JL titer <41 and a genotype G titer <16. Conclusions: We identified potential correlates of protection for mumps neutralizing antibody titers against JL and genotype G mumps viruses.

Predicting Efficacy of a Purified Inactivated Zika Virus Vaccine in Flavivirus-Naïve Humans Using an Immunological Correlate of Protection in Non-Human Primates.

A traditional phase 3 clinical efficacy study for a Zika vaccine may be unfeasible because of the current low transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV). An alternative clinical development approach to evaluate Zika vaccine efficacy (VE) is therefore required, delineated in the US FDA's Accelerated Approval Program for licensure, which utilizes an anti-Zika neutralizing antibody (Zika NAb) titer correlated with non-human primate (NHP) protection as a surrogate endpoint. In this accelerated approval approach, the estimation of VE would be inferred from the percentage of phase 3 trial participants achieving the established surrogate endpoint. We provide a statistical framework to predict the probability of protection for human participants vaccinated with a purified inactivated ZIKV vaccine (TAK-426), in the absence of VE measurements, using NHP data under a single-correlate model. Based on a logistic regression (LR) with bias-reduction model, a probability of 90% protection in humans is expected with a ZIKV NAb geometric mean titer (GMT) ≥ 3.38 log10 half-maximal effective concentration (EC50). The predicted probability of protection of TAK-426 against ZIKV infection was determined using the two-parameter LR model that fit the calculated VE in rhesus macaques and the flavivirus-naïve phase 1 trial participants' ZIKV NAb GMTs log10 EC50, measured by a ZIKV reporter virus particle assay, at 1 month post dose 2. The TAK-426 10 µg dose predicted a probability of protection from infection of 98% among flavivirus-naïve phase 1 trial participants.

How to Accelerate Early Stage of Malaria Vaccine Development by Optimizing Functional Assays.

While two Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein-based pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV), RTS,S and R21, have been approved by the WHO, no blood-stage vaccine (BSV) or transmission-blocking vaccine (TBV) has reached a phase 3 trial. One of the major obstacles that slows down malaria vaccine development is the shortage (or lack) of in vitro assays or animal models by which investigators can reasonably select the best vaccine formulation (e.g., antigen, adjuvant, or platform) and/or immunization strategy (e.g., interval of inoculation or route of immunization) before a human phase 2 trial. In the case of PEV, RTS,S and R21 have set a benchmark, and a new vaccine can be compared with (one of) the approved PEV directly in preclinical or early clinical studies. However, such an approach cannot be utilized for BSV or TBV development at this moment. The focus of this review is in vitro assays or in vivo models that can be used for P. falciparum BSV or TBV development, and I discuss important considerations during assay selection, standardization, qualification, validation, and interpretation of the assay results. Establishment of a robust assay/model with proper interpretation of the results is the one of key elements to accelerate future vaccine development.

Antibody kinetics between birth and three months of life in healthy infants with natural exposure to Group B streptococcus: A UK cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Capsular polysaccharide (CPS) serotype-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) in cord blood has been proposed as a correlate of protection against invasive Group B Streptococcus (iGBS) disease. Although protective levels are required in infants throughout the window of vulnerability up to 3 months of age, little is known regarding the kinetics of GBS-specific IgG over this period. METHODS: We enrolled 33 healthy infants born to mothers colonized with GBS. We collected cord blood and infant blood samples either at one (21-35 days), two (49-63 days), or three months of age (77-91 days). We measured GBS serotype-specific CPS IgG concentrations and calculated the decay rate using a mixed-effects model. We further explored whether the antibody kinetics were affected by common maternal and infant factors and estimated the correlation between IgG concentration at birth and one, two, and three months of age. RESULTS: The half-life estimate of IgG concentration for homologous and non-homologous GBS serotypes in paired samples with detectable IgG levels at both time points was 27.4 (95 % CI: 23.5-32.9) days. The decay rate did not vary by maternal age (p = 0.7), ethnicity (p = 0.1), gravida (p = 0.1), gestation (p = 0.7), and infant sex (p = 0.1). Predicted IgG titres above the assay lower limit of quantification on day 30 strongly correlated with titres at birth (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.71 [95 % CI: 0.60-0.80]). CONCLUSION: Our results provide a basis for future investigations into the use of antibody kinetics in defining a serocorrelate of protection against late-onset iGBS disease.

Elucidating vaccine efficacy using a correlate of protection, demographics, and logistic regression.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities. METHODS: This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome. RESULTS: Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions.

Interlaboratory comparison of a multiplex immunoassay that measures human serum IgG antibodies against six-group B streptococcus polysaccharides.

Measurement of IgG antibodies against group B streptococcus (GBS) capsular polysaccharide (CPS) by use of a standardized and internationally accepted multiplex immunoassay is important for the evaluation of candidate maternal GBS vaccines in order to compare results across studies. A standardized assay is also required if serocorrelates of protection against invasive GBS disease are to be established in infant sera for the six predominant GBS serotypes since it would permit the comparison of results across the six serotypes. We undertook an interlaboratory study across five laboratories that used standardized assay reagents and protocols with a panel of 44 human sera to measure IgG antibodies against GBS CPS serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV, and V. The within-laboratory intermediate precision, which included factors like the lot of coated beads, laboratory analyst, and day, was generally below 20% relative standard deviation (RSD) for all six serotypes, across all five laboratories. The cross-laboratory reproducibility was < 25% RSD for all six serotypes, which demonstrated the consistency of results across the different laboratories. Additionally, anti-CPS IgG concentrations for the 44-member human serum panel were established. The results of this study showed assay robustness and that the resultant anti-CPS IgG concentrations were reproducible across laboratories for the six GBS CPS serotypes when the standardized assay was used.

A Pseudovirus-Based Neutralization Assay for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: A Rapid, Cost-Effective, BSL-2-Based High-Throughput Assay Useful for Vaccine Immunogenicity Evaluation.

Neutralizing antibody responses from COVID-19 vaccines are pivotal in conferring protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Effective COVID-19 vaccines and assays measuring neutralizing antibodies against emerging variants (i.e., XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, and XBB.2.3) are needed. The use of biosafety level (BSL)-3 laboratories for live virus assays results in higher costs and a longer turnaround time; therefore, a BSL-2-based pseudovirus neutralization assay (PNT) was developed. The pseudoviruses were produced by cotransfecting cells with plasmids encoding a lentiviral backbone-expressing luciferase reporter; non-surface proteins for lentiviral production; and ancestral or Omicron (BA.1 and BA.5) SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) proteins. The PNT was developed and optimized in dose and kinetics experiments. The representative serum samples (COVID-19-convalescent or NVX-CoV2373-vaccinated participants enrolled in the 2019nCoV-101 trial) demonstrated a wide dynamic range. The neutralization data showed robust correlation with validated anti-recombinant spike IgG levels and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 inhibition titers (ancestral). This assay is suitable for measurement of the neutralization ability in clinical samples from individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 or immunized with a COVID-19 vaccine. The results suggest that this PNT provides a lower cost, high-throughput, rapid turnaround alternative to BSL-3-based microneutralization assays and enables the discovery and development of effective vaccines against emerging variants.

Interplay of inflammatory markers and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in COVID-19 mortality: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite high global vaccination coverage, it remains unclear how vaccination and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies affect immune responses and inflammation levels in patients with COVID-19. It is further unclear whether the inflammatory response differs depending on antibody levels and whether the combination of antibody and inflammation levels in COVID-19 patients affects mortality rates. METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicenter cohort study that included 1031 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from five hospitals. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-spike antibodies, interleukin-6 (IL6), and CRP were measured on hospital admission. The prespecified endpoint was all-cause in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We observed significantly lower levels of CRP (P<0.001) and IL6 (P<0.001) in patients with antibody levels above 1200 BAU/ml. After adjusting for potential confounders, patients with high levels of inflammatory markers (CRP>6 mg/dl or IL6>100 pg/ml) combined with low levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2-spike antibodies (<1200 BAU/ml) were approximately 8 times more likely to die than patients with low inflammatory responses and high antibody levels (CRP: aHR 7.973, 95% CI 2.744-23.169, P<0.001; IL6: aHR 8.973, 95% CI 3.549-22.688, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Hospitalized COVID-19 patients presenting with high inflammatory markers and low antibody levels exhibited the highest mortality risks. Higher antibody levels are associated with lower levels of inflammation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Unravelling influenza correlates of protection: lessons from human A/H1N1 Challenge.

Mucosal immunity is important in protecting from upper respiratory tract influenza infection. Human challenge provides a unique model to define correlates of protection with baseline immune responses being correlated to the quantity and length of viral shedding and clinical outcomes. Here, we discuss recent work on mucosal and systemic correlates of protection (R. Bean, L. T. Giurgea, A. Han, L. Czajkowski, et al., mBio 15:e02372-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.02372-23) and place it in the context of previous work on mucosal immunity. We also discuss the importance of standardized assays to allow global comparison of relevant immune responses in defining correlates of protection. Correlates of protection are important for designing next-generation broadly protective influenza vaccines.

Prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, over 772 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported. New variants of interest with corresponding spikes in case numbers continue to be identified. Vulnerable patients, including older adults or patients with severe comorbidities, continue to be at risk. A large body of evidence has been accumulated regarding anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and COVID-19 but the usefulness of antibody measurements remains unclear. This systematic review aims to assess the prognostic value of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies and their usefulness for guiding booster vaccinations. METHODS: Studies in English and published between January 2020 and October 2023 were included. Studies that relied on multiparameter-models or comprised fewer than 100 participants were excluded. PubMed and via the WHO COVID-19 research database, Embase and Medline databases were searched. Study selection and quality assessment was conducted independently by two researchers. RESULTS: After screening 1,160 studies, 33 studies comprising >30 million individuals were included. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies were strongly associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-infection and better outcomes, including mortality. Risk of infection and COVID-19 severity decreased with increasing antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibodies are useful for early identification of high-risk patients and timely adjustment of therapy. Protective thresholds may be applied to advise booster vaccinations but verification in separate cohorts is required.

Variation in the basal immune state and implications for disease.

Analysis of pre-existing immunity and its effects on acute infection often focus on memory responses associated with a prior infectious exposure. However, memory responses occur in the context of the overall immune state and leukocytes must interact with their microenvironment and other immune cells. Thus, it is important to also consider non-antigen-specific factors which shape the composite basal state and functional capacity of the immune system, termed here as I0 ('I naught'). In this review, we discuss the determinants of I0. Utilizing influenza virus as a model, we then consider the effect of I0 on susceptibility to infection and disease severity. Lastly, we outline a mathematical framework and demonstrate how researchers can build and tailor models to specific needs. Understanding how diverse factors uniquely and collectively impact immune competence will provide valuable insights into mechanisms of immune variation, aid in screening for high-risk populations, and promote the development of broadly applicable prophylactic and therapeutic treatments.

Enabling the evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines with correlates of protection.

In February 2023, a meeting about correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 was organized by the International Alliance for Biological Standardization, the European Plotkin Institute for Vaccinology, and Vaccinopolis. The meeting aimed at reviewing the evidence, drawing conclusions, and identifying knowledge gaps. Collection of evidence is not straightforward. Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection and are used for immunobridging studies within and between vaccine platforms for approval of new COVID-19 vaccines. In preparation for the next pandemic, it is vital that rapidly authorized initial vaccines are available to perform immunobridging studies very early. Additional components of the immune response likely contribute to protection against symptomatic infection. Current evidence is strongest for T lymphocytes and binding antibodies. Further studies are needed to consolidate this evidence and define their potential role in the evaluation of vaccines. For evaluation of mucosal vaccines, identifying CoPs against infection and transmission is key; further research is needed to identify and standardize methods suitable for clinical studies. CoPs for broadly protective beta-coronavirus vaccines remain a critical area of research. The knowledge, expertise, and capacity exist to conduct clinical studies using different designs in different populations to discover and validate CoPs, facilitating and accelerating evaluation of novel vaccines/vaccination platforms.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Testing: Role and Indications.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, over 769 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, including close to 7 million COVID-19-related deaths, have been reported. Although mortality rates have dropped notably compared to the first months of the pandemic, spikes in reported cases and mortality rates continue to be registered. Both recent spikes in case numbers and the continued emergence of new variants suggest that vulnerable patient groups, including older adults, immunocompromised patients, and patients with severe comorbidities, are going to continue to be affected by COVID-19. In order to curb the pandemic, relieve the pressure on primary care facilities, and reduce mortality rates, global vaccination programs have been established by the WHO, with over 13.5 billion vaccine doses having been administered globally. In most immunocompetent individuals, vaccination against COVID-19 results in the production of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies. However, certain patient subsets have inadequate or reduced immune responses, and immune responses are known to decrease with age. General recommendations on the timing of booster vaccinations may therefore be insufficient to protect vulnerable patients. This review aims to evaluate the clinical role of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, focusing on measurement indications, prognostic value, and potential as a correlate of protection to guide future booster vaccination strategies.

Vaccine-induced SARS-CoV-2 antibody response: the comparability of S1-specific binding assays depends on epitope and isotype discrimination.

Background: Quantification of the SARS-CoV-2-specific immune response by serological immunoassays is critical for the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, neutralizing antibody titers to the viral spike (S) protein have been proposed as a correlate of protection (CoP). The WHO established the First International Standard (WHO IS) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig) (NIBSC 20/136) to harmonize binding assays with the same antigen specificity by assigning the same unitage in binding antibody units (BAU)/ml. Method: In this study, we analyzed the S1-specific antibody response in a cohort of healthcare workers in Germany (n = 76) during a three-dose vaccination course over 8.5 months. Subjects received either heterologous or homologous prime-boost vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or three doses of BNT162b2. Antibodies were quantified using three anti-S1 binding assays (ELISA, ECLIA, and PETIA) harmonized to the WHO IS. Serum levels of neutralizing antibodies were determined using a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT). Binding assays were compared using Spearman's rank correlation and Passing-Bablok regression. Findings: All assays showed good correlation and similar antibody kinetics correlating with neutralizing potential. However, the assays show large proportional differences in BAU/ml. ECLIA and PETIA, which detect total antibodies against the receptor- binding domain (RBD) within the S1 subunit, interact similarly with the convalescent plasma-derived WHO IS but differently with vaccine serum, indicating a high sensitivity to the IgG/IgM/IgA ratio. Conclusion: All three binding assays allow monitoring of the antibody response in COVID-19-vaccinated individuals. However, the assay-specific differences hinder the definition of a common protective threshold in BAU/ml. Our results highlight the need for the thoughtful use of conversion factors and consideration of method-specific differences. To improve the management of future pandemics and harmonize total antibody assays, we should strive for reference material with a well-characterized Ig isotype composition.

Protection from infection and reinfection due to the Omicron BA.1 variant in care homes.

Introduction: Following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, care homes were disproportionately impacted by high mortality and morbidity of vulnerable elderly residents. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and improved infection control measures together with vaccination campaigns have since improved outcomes of infection. We studied the utility of past infection status, recent vaccination and anti-S antibody titres as possible correlates of protection against a newly emergent Omicron variant infection. Methods: Prospective longitudinal surveillance of nine sentinel London care homes from April 2020 onwards found that all experienced COVID-19 outbreaks due to Omicron (BA.1) during December 2021 and January 2022, despite extensive prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure and high COVID-19 vaccination rates, including booster vaccines (>70% residents, >40% staff). Results: Detailed investigation showed that 46% (133/288) of Omicron BA.1 infections were SARS-CoV-2 reinfections. Two and three COVID-19 vaccine doses were protective against Omicron infection within 2-9 weeks of vaccination, though protection waned from 10 weeks post-vaccination. Prior infection provided additional protection in vaccinated individuals, approximately halving the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Discussion: Anti-S antibody titre showed a dose-dependent protective effect but did not fully account for the protection provided by vaccination or past infection, indicating that other mechanisms of protection are also involved.

T cells, more than antibodies, may prevent symptoms developing from respiratory syncytial virus infections in older adults.

Introduction: The immune mechanisms supporting partial protection from reinfection and disease by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have not been fully characterized. In older adults, symptoms are typically mild but can be serious in patients with comorbidities when the infection extends to the lower respiratory tract. Methods: This study formed part of the RESCEU older-adults prospective-cohort study in Northern Europe (2017-2019; NCT03621930) in which a thousand participants were followed over an RSV season. Peripheral-blood samples (taken pre-season, post-season, during illness and convalescence) were analyzed from participants who (i) had a symptomatic acute respiratory tract infection by RSV (RSV-ARTI; N=35) or (ii) asymptomatic RSV infection (RSV-Asymptomatic; N=16). These analyses included evaluations of antibody (Fc-mediated-) functional features and cell-mediated immunity, in which univariate and machine-learning (ML) models were used to explore differences between groups. Results: Pre-RSV-season peripheral-blood biomarkers were predictive of symptomatic RSV infection. T-cell data were more predictive than functional antibody data (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] for the models were 99% and 76%, respectively). The pre-RSV season T-cell phenotypes which were selected by the ML modelling and which were more frequent in RSV-Asymptomatic group than in the RSV-ARTI group, coincided with prominent phenotypes identified during convalescence from RSV-ARTI (e.g., IFN-γ+, TNF-α+ and CD40L+ for CD4+, and IFN-γ+ and 4-1BB+ for CD8+). Conclusion: The evaluation and statistical modelling of numerous immunological parameters over the RSV season suggests a primary role of cellular immunity in preventing symptomatic RSV infections in older adults.

Naturally-induced serum antibody levels in children to pneumococcal polysaccharide 15B that correlate with protection from nasopharyngeal colonization but anti-serotype 15B antibody has low functional cross-reactivity with serotype 15C.

BACKGROUND: Serotypes 15B and 15C have been added to new different pneumococcal-conjugate vaccines (PCV20 and V116, respectively). We determined a serum anti-15B antibody level that would be a correlate of protection (COP) against nasopharyngeal colonization and assessed functional cross-reactivity against serotype 15B and 15C in children following natural immunization. METHOD: IgG-antibody to serotype 15B polysaccharide was measured by ELISA in 341 sera from 6 to 36 month old children collected before, at the time of, and after pneumococcal colonization caused by serotypes 15B and 15C. 155 age-matched controls who had no detected colonization caused by serotype 15B or 15C strains were used as controls. A two-step method was used for construction of COP models: a generalized estimating equation followed by logistic-regression. Opsonophagocytic (OPA) assays assessed functional cross-reactivity between serotypes 15B and 15C. RESULTS: The derived COP for prevention of colonization was 1.18 µg/ml for serotype 15B and 0.63 µg/ml for serotype 15C, with a predictive probability of 80 %. Antibody levels did not correlate with OPA titers. 30 % of child samples, with moderate to high amounts of ELISA-measured antibody, showed no OPA titer against either serotype 15B or 15C. For remaining samples, very low or no functional cross-reactivity between serotypes 15B and 15C was measured. CONCLUSIONS: A COP for prevention of colonization in young children based on naturally-induced antibody levels was derived for serotypes 15B and 15C that differed. Antibody levels correlated poorly with OPA titers and low functional cross-reactivity between serotypes 15B and 15C in child sera was observed.

Vaccine development against tuberculosis before and after Covid-19.

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has not only shaped awareness of the impact of infectious diseases on global health. It has also provided instructive lessons for better prevention strategies against new and current infectious diseases of major importance. Tuberculosis (TB) is a major current health threat caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) which has claimed more lives than any other pathogen over the last few centuries. Hence, better intervention measures, notably novel vaccines, are urgently needed to accomplish the goal of the World Health Organization to end TB by 2030. This article describes how the research and development of TB vaccines can benefit from recent developments in the Covid-19 vaccine pipeline from research to clinical development and outlines how the field of TB research can pursue its own approaches. It begins with a brief discussion of major vaccine platforms in general terms followed by a short description of the most widely applied Covid-19 vaccines. Next, different vaccination regimes and particular hurdles for TB vaccine research and development are described. This specifically considers the complex immune mechanisms underlying protection and pathology in TB which involve innate as well as acquired immune mechanisms and strongly depend on fine tuning the response. A brief description of the TB vaccine candidates that have entered clinical trials follows. Finally, it discusses how experiences from Covid-19 vaccine research, development, and rollout can and have been applied to the TB vaccine pipeline, emphasizing similarities and dissimilarities.

Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial.

BACKGROUND: Stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis is a new approach to correlate of protection (CoP) analysis of a phase III trial that estimates how vaccine efficacy (VE) would change under hypothetical shifts of an immune marker. METHODS: We applied nonparametric SVE methodology to the COVE trial of messenger RNA-1273 vs placebo to evaluate post-dose 2 pseudovirus neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against the D614G strain as a CoP against COVID-19. Secondly, we evaluated the ability of these results to predict VE against variants based on shifts of geometric mean titers to variants vs D614G. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by 13 validation studies, including 12 test-negative designs. RESULTS: SVE analysis of COVE supported post-dose 2 D614G titer as a CoP: estimated VE ranged from 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 36.2, 82.8%) to 99.3% (99.1, 99.4%) at 10-fold decreased or increased titer shifts, respectively. The SVE estimates only weakly predicted variant-specific VE estimates (concordance correlation coefficient 0.062 for post 2-dose VE). CONCLUSION: SVE analysis of COVE supports nAb titer as a CoP for messenger RNA vaccines. Predicting variant-specific VE proved difficult due to many limitations. Greater anti-Omicron titers may be needed for high-level protection against Omicron vs anti-D614G titers needed for high-level protection against pre-Omicron COVID-19.