Identifying trajectories of change in sleep disturbance during psychological treatment for depression.

BACKGROUND: Sleep disturbance may impact response to psychological treatment for depression. Understanding how sleep disturbance changes during the course of psychological treatment, and identifying the risk factors for sleep disturbance response may inform clinical decision-making. METHOD: This analysis included 18,915 patients receiving high-intensity psychological therapy for depression from one of eight London-based Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services between 2011 and 2020. Distinct trajectories of change in sleep disturbance were identified using growth mixture modelling. The study also investigated associations between identified trajectory classes, pre-treatment patient characteristics, and eventual treatment outcomes from combined PHQ-9 and GAD-7 metrics used by the services. RESULTS: Six distinct trajectories of sleep disturbance were identified: two demonstrated improvement, while one showed initial deterioration and the other three groups displayed only limited change in sleep disturbance, each with varying baseline sleep disturbance. Associations with trajectory class membership were found based on: gender, ethnicity, employment status, psychotropic medication use, long-term health condition status, severity of depressive symptoms, and functional impairment. Groups that showed improvement in sleep had the best eventual outcomes from depression treatment, followed by groups that consistently slept well. LIMITATION: Single item on sleep disturbance used, no data on treatment adherence. CONCLUSIONS: These findings reveal heterogeneity in the course of sleep disturbance during psychological treatment for depression. Closer monitoring of changes in sleep disturbance during treatment might inform treatment planning. This includes decisions about when to incorporate sleep management interventions, and whether to change or augment therapy with interventions to reduce sleep disturbance.

Clinical characteristics associated with functioning trajectories following admission to a psychiatric institution: A prospective cohort study of individuals with psychosis.

Psychotic disorders can be severely enabling, and functional recovery is often difficult to achieve. Admission to a psychiatric unit represents a key opportunity to implement strategies that will improve functional outcomes. In the current literature, there is a lack of consensus on which factors influence functional recovery. Therefore, the present longitudinal cohort study aimed to identify factors associated with functional trajectories following hospital admission for acute psychosis. A sample of 453 individuals with acute psychosis was extracted from the Signature Biobank database. Participants were followed for up to a year following admission. Various clinical indicators were documented over time. Functional trajectories were calculated based on the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0. Three groups were identified: "improving", "stable", and "worsening" function. Individuals with a more severe symptomatic presentation at baseline were found to have better functional improve more over time. Over time, individuals in the "improving" and "stable" groups had significant improvements in their psychiatric symptoms. Finally, individuals following a "worsening" functional trajectory initially improved in terms of psychotic symptoms, but it did not persist over time. These results highlight the importance of studying function as a key component of recovery rather than solely focusing on relapse prevention.

Grief trajectories after loss in pregnancy and during the neonatal period.

Distinguishing patterns of grief over time in parents with a loss in pregnancy or during the neonatal period is important for identification of parents with severe grief symptoms, who may need additional support. Our aim was to describe grief in this population and to examine variations by type of loss in a large prospective cohort. We used questionnaire data from the Danish longitudinal cohort, Life After the Loss, which contains information on parents with a loss in pregnancy (from 14 weeks) or during the neonatal period. Parents completed the Prolonged Grief-13 scale at 1, 7, and 13 months after their loss. We applied Latent Growth Mixture Modelling to identify prolonged grief trajectories and used multinomial regression models to assess factors associated with class membership. Three distinct trajectories were identified in 676 parents: resilience (73.1%), recovery (16.9%), and chronic (10%). The distribution varied by type of loss, and the chronic group were overrepresented by parents with stillbirths (16.2%) and neonatal deaths (16.1%) in contrast to parents with spontaneous abortions (8.2%) and termination of pregnancy due to fetal anomalies (6.2%). Furthermore, not having a living child or being a woman was associated with following the chronic trajectory. These results underline that, while most bereaved parents are resilient, 10% experience consistently high levels of grief symptoms during the first year after the loss. Information on type of loss, gender, and whether the parent has living children are meaningful indicators of grief class membership.

Latent trajectories of DSM-5-TR-based Prolonged Grief Disorder: findings from a data pooling project MARBLES.

Background: With the release of the text revision of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition (DSM-5-TR), criteria for Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) were included. This necessitates studying grief trajectories based on these criteria.Objective: This is the first study examining latent trajectories of DSM-5-TR-based PGD symptom levels and testing whether specific risk factors (e.g. cause of death) predicted PGD trajectories.Method: We evaluated latent DSM-5-TR PGD trajectories using pooled existing data collected at 6-12, 13-24, and 25-60 months post-loss in Danish and Dutch bereaved adults (N = 398). Latent Growth Mixture Modelling (LGMM) was employed to determine the trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine which risk factors predicted class membership.Results: The four-class LGMM solution with a quadratic term was best-fitting the data. This solution represented four trajectories: High stable PGD (6%), High PGD quick recovery (10%), High PGD slow recovery (35%), and Low PGD symptoms (49%). Participants with a higher educational level were more likely to be assigned to the Low PGD symptoms trajectory compared to High stable PGD and High PGD slow recovery trajectories. Unnatural causes of death increased the likelihood of being in the High stable PGD and High PGD slow recovery trajectories compared to the Low PGD symptoms trajectory.Conclusions: Consistent with prior research, the Low PGD symptoms trajectory was the most common. A significant minority experienced high and stable levels of PGD within five years after the loss. About one-third of participants experienced high acute grief levels that decreased slowly; how slow decreasing symptoms relate to an individual's functioning requires further attention. This study demonstrates that a significant minority of bereaved people develop acute PGD symptomatology that does not diminish within five years post-loss, emphasizing the need for early screening for PGD to prevent long-lasting complaints.

This is the first latent trajectory study based on DSM-5-TR Prolonged Grief Disorder (PGD) criteria. Data were analysed using latent growth mixture modelling.Stable high (6%), quick recovery (10%), slow recovery (35%), low symptoms (49%) PGD trajectories arose.Early screening and treatment of PGD seems warranted.

Health trajectories of international humanitarian aid workers: growth mixture modelling findings from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most staff stay healthy during humanitarian work, although some worsen. Mean scores on health indicators may be masking individual participants struggling with health issues. AIMS: To investigate different field assignment-related health trajectories among international humanitarian aid workers (iHAWs) and explore the mechanisms used to stay healthy. METHOD: Growth mixture modelling analyses for five health indicators using pre-/post-assignment and follow-up data. RESULTS: Among 609 iHAWs three trajectories (profiles) were found for emotional exhaustion, work engagement, anxiety and depression. For post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, four trajectories were identified. The 'healthy/normative' trajectory had the largest sample size for all health indicators (73-86%). A stable (moderate) 'ill health' trajectory was identified for all health indicators (7-17%), except anxiety. An 'improving' trajectory was found for PTSD and anxiety symptoms (5-14%). A minority of staff (4-15%) worsened on all health indicators. Deterioration continued for PTSD, depressive symptoms and work engagement 2 months post-assignment. A strong sense of coherence was associated with higher odds of belonging to the 'healthy' trajectory. Female biological sex was associated with higher odds of belonging to the 'worsening' depression and anxiety trajectories. Extended duration of field assignment was related to higher odds of belonging to the 'worsening' depressive symptoms trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Most iHAWs stayed healthy during their assignment; a stable 'ill health' trajectory was identified for most health indicators. Sense of coherence is an important mechanism for understanding the health of all iHAWs in the different health trajectories, including the 'healthy' profile. These findings give new possibilities to develop activities to prevent worsening health and help strengthen iHAWs' ability to remain healthy under stress.

The association between trajectories of change in social functioning and psychological treatment outcome in university students: a growth mixture model analysis.

BACKGROUND: The transition to university and resultant social support network disruption can be detrimental to the mental health of university students. As the need for mental health support is becoming increasingly prevalent in students, identification of factors associated with poorer outcomes is a priority. Changes in social functioning have a bi-directional relationship with mental health, however it is not clear how such measures may be related to effectiveness of psychological treatments. METHODS: Growth mixture models were estimated on a sample of 5221 students treated in routine mental health services to identify different trajectories of change in self-rated impairment in social leisure activities and close relationships during the course of treatment. Multinomial regression explored associations between trajectory classes and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Five trajectory classes were identified for social leisure activity impairment while three classes were identified for close relationship impairment. In both measures most students remained mildly impaired. Other trajectories included severe impairment with limited improvement, severe impairment with delayed improvement, and, in social leisure activities only, rapid improvement, and deterioration. Trajectories of improvement were associated with positive treatment outcomes while trajectories of worsening or stable severe impairment were associated with negative treatment outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in social functioning impairment are associated with psychological treatment outcomes in students, suggesting that these changes may be associated with treatment effectiveness as well as recovery experiences. Future research should seek to establish whether a causal link exists to understand whether integrating social support within psychological treatment may bring additional benefit for students.

Trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms from pregnancy to 11 years postpartum: Findings from Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Maternal depressive symptoms are common in pregnancy and may extend to the perinatal period and beyond for some women. To date, few longitudinal studies have investigated maternal depressive symptoms from pregnancy to eleven years postpartum. Drawing data from a large population-based study cohort the aims of this study were to 1) identify distinct groups of mothers defined by their trajectories of depressive symptoms spanning from pregnancy to eleven years following the birth of the child, and 2) to identify psychosocial risk factors during pregnancy and in the first few postnatal years that are associated with these trajectories. METHODS: Data were analyzed from 14,170 mothers who participated in Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to capture maternal depressive symptoms across 10 time points including two prenatal (18 and 32 weeks), and eight postnatal (2, 8, 21, 33, 61, 73, 97 and 134 months) time points. The latent growth model was created to describe the course of maternal depressive symptoms across the preceding time points followed by a latent growth mixture modelling (LGMM) to identify distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms over time within the overall sample. The predictors of maternal depressive symptoms trajectories were categorized into sociodemographic, child, and psychosocial factors. The multinomial regression analyses were conducted to explore associations between the risk factors and depressive symptoms trajectories. RESULTS: LGMM identified four distinct trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms over time: minimal symptoms, increasing symptoms, persistent symptoms, and decreasing symptoms. Predictors of all patterns of depression - persistent, increasing and decreasing symptoms include smoking during pregnancy, and partner conflict. The strongest predictors of the persistent symptom trajectory included maternal history of depression and inadequate social support. LIMITATIONS: The use of self-reported maternal mental health symptoms and under representation of ethnic minorities are our study's limitations. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings highlight the importance of early identification and treatment for mothers experiencing depressive symptoms from pregnancy to the perinatal period and beyond.

Heterogeneity in depressive and anxiety symptoms and loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from three Dutch psychiatric case-control cohorts from April 2020 to February 2022.

OBJECTIVE: While research found heterogeneous changes in mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, less is known about the long-term changes in mental health in psychiatric groups. Therefore, we applied a data-driven method to detect sub-groups with distinct trajectories across two years into the pandemic in psychiatric groups, and described their differences in socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. METHOD: We conducted sixteen rounds of questionnaires between April 2020 and February 2022 among participants (n = 1722) of three psychiatric case-control cohorts that started in the 2000's. We used Growth Mixture Modelling and (multinomial) logistic regression to identify characteristics associated with trajectory membership. RESULTS: We found low decreasing (1228 [72%] participants), intermediate (n = 348 [22%] participants) and high stable (106 [6%] participants) trajectories of depressive symptoms; decreasing low/intermediate (1507 [90%] participants) and high stable (161 [10%] participants) trajectories of anxiety symptoms; and stable low (1109 [61%] participants), stable high (315 [17%] participants), temporary lowered (123 [9%]) and temporary heightened (175 [13%] participants) trajectories of loneliness. Chronicity and severity of pre-pandemic mental disorders predicted unfavourable sub-group membership for all outcomes. Being female, having a low education and income level were associated with unfavourable trajectories of depression, being younger with unfavourable trajectories of anxiety and being female and living alone with unfavourable trajectories of loneliness. CONCLUSION: We found relatively stable trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms over two years, suggesting low heterogeneity in outcomes during the pandemic. For loneliness, we found two specific sub-groups with temporary increase and decrease in loneliness during the pandemic.

Characterizing the individual course of health-related quality of life after subarachnoid haemorrhage: Latent growth mixture modelling.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) show heterogeneous profiles of health-related quality of life (HrQoL). The aim of this study was to characterize individual differences in the course of HrQoL following SAH using latent growth mixture modelling (LGMM). METHODS: A longitudinal study with 113 incident cases of aneurysmal SAH was performed in order to evaluate clinical outcome (Hunt and Hess scale, Barthel-Index, Beck Depression Inventory) and HrQoL data (EQ-5D) at baseline, 6 and 12 months. The heterogeneity in HrQoL courses after SAH was analysed using LGMM. RESULTS: Four subgroups (classes) of different patterns of HrQoL course after SAH were identified. Two of these classes (1 and 3) comprised patients with considerably reduced initial HrQoL, which was associated with more severe symptoms of SAH. Class 1 showing the worst EQ5D-index values during the entire study period. Class 3 experiencing a considerable improvement in HrQoL values. In comparison to classes 1 and 3, class 2 and 4 were characterized by less severe SAH and better functional outcome. An important difference in the disease course between classes 2 and 4 was a temporary increase in depression scores at the 6-month time point in class 4, which was associated with a considerable reduction in HrQoL.The specific clinical parameters characterizing differences between classes, such as severity of SAH, functional outcome, cognitive impairment and post-stroke depression, were identified and the influence of their potential improvement on HrQoL was estimated. CONCLUSION: By means of LGMM we could classify the course of HrQoL after SAH in four different patterns, which are relevant for the clinical decisions. Clinical parameters, which can be modified in order to improve the course of HrQoL were identified and could help to develop individual therapeutic strategies for the rehabilitation after SAH.

Association between high levels of comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms and decreased likelihood of birth without intervention: A longitudinal prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between trajectories of comorbid anxiety and depressive (CAD) symptoms assessed in each pregnancy trimester and physiological birth. DESIGN: Large longitudinal prospective cohort study with recruitment between January 2013 and September 2014. SETTING: Primary care, in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Dutch-speaking pregnant women with gestational age at birth ≥37 weeks, and without multiple pregnancy, severe psychiatric disorder or chronic disease history. METHODS: Pregnancy-specific anxiety and depressive symptoms were measured prospectively in each trimester of pregnancy using the negative affect subscale of the Tilburg Pregnancy Distress Scale and Edinburgh (Postnatal) Depression Scale. Data on physiological birth were obtained from obstetric records. Multivariate growth mixture modelling was performed in MPLUS to determine longitudinal trajectories of CAD symptoms. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between trajectories and physiological birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trajectories of CAD symptoms and physiological birth. RESULTS: Seven trajectories (classes) of CAD symptoms were identified in 1682 women and subsequently merged into three groups: group 1-persistently low levels of symptoms (reference class 1; 79.0%), group 2-intermittently high levels of symptoms (classes 3, 6 and 7; 11.2%), and group 3-persistently high levels of symptoms (classes 2, 4 and 5; 9.8%). Persistently high levels of CAD symptoms (group 3) were associated with a lower likelihood of physiological birth (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.47-0.95, P = 0.027) compared with the reference group (persistently low levels of symptoms), after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first showing evidence that persistently high CAD levels, assessed in each pregnancy trimester, are associated with a lower likelihood of physiological birth.

Psychotic experiences and negative symptoms from adolescence to emerging adulthood: developmental trajectories and associations with polygenic scores and childhood characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences and negative symptoms (PENS) are common in non-clinical populations. PENS are associated with adverse outcomes, particularly when they persist. Little is known about the trajectories of PENS dimensions in young people, nor about the precursory factors associated with these trajectories. METHODS: We conducted growth mixture modelling of paranoia, hallucinations, and negative symptoms across ages 16, 17, and 22 in a community sample (N = 12 049-12 652). We then described the emergent trajectory classes through their associations with genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) for psychiatric and educational phenotypes, and earlier childhood characteristics. RESULTS: Three trajectory classes emerged for paranoia, two for hallucinations, and two for negative symptoms. Across PENS, GPS for clinical help-seeking, major depressive disorder, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder were associated with increased odds of being in the most elevated trajectory class (OR 1.07-1.23). Lower education GPS was associated with the most elevated trajectory class for hallucinations and negative symptoms (OR 0.77-0.91). Conversely for paranoia, higher education GPS was associated with the most elevated trajectory class (OR 1.25). Trajectory class associations were not significant for schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, bipolar disorder, or anorexia GPS. Emotional/behaviour problems and life events in childhood were associated with increased odds of being in the most elevated trajectory class across PENS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest latent heterogeneity in the development of paranoia, hallucinations, and negative symptoms in young people that is associated with specific polygenic scores and childhood characteristics.

Methods for analysing the relationship between poverty, parental work intensity, child emotional symptoms and conduct problems over time.

This article exposes the methods employed to analyse the complex associations between poverty and work intensity over time on the longitudinal trajectories of mental health wellbeing in a cohort of children. This study used data from nine waves of birth cohort 1 of the Growing Up in Scotland (GUS) study (2005/06-2017/18) to fit a bivariate multilevel non-linear growth curve model for the change in conduct problems and emotional symptoms of children over time with the trajectories of poverty and parental work intensity over time as the main covariates of interest. We explain in detail: (a) how we arrive at valid measures for our outcome of interest by testing for longitudinal measurement invariance and (b) the principled approach of growth mixture modelling undertaken to derive our main covariates of interest. Both procedures are the preamble for the main model of interest that addresses the substantive research question of how changes over time in poverty and parental employment are associated with changes over time in children's wellbeing.•We expose the rationale behind and the procedures for implementing Longitudinal Measurement Invariance testing for the repeated measures of emotional and conduct problems.•We expose the rationale behind and the procedures for implementing a growth mixture modelling approach to derive longitudinal measures of poverty and work intensity.•We provide details of the bivariate growth curve model fitted to analyse the effect of the derived longitudinal measures of poverty and work intensity on the valid longitudinal measures of emotional and conduct problems.

When pregnancy and pandemic coincide: changes in stress and anxiety over the course of pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women experienced high levels of perceived stress and anxiety at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the course of stress and anxiety in individual pregnant women during the pandemic is unknown. METHODS: Participants were 1,087 women ≤20 weeks pregnant in April-May 2020 (T1) at recruitment into the Stony Brook COVID-19 Pregnancy Experiences (SB-COPE) Study, with additional assessments in July-August 2020 (T2) and October 2020 (T3). Growth mixture models conditioned on covariates were used to identify patterns of change over time in pandemic-related stress (originating from feeling unprepared for birth and fearing perinatal infection), pregnancy-specific stress, and anxiety symptoms. RESULTS: A uniform pattern of change (i.e. one-class solution) in stress perceptions was observed over time. Participants showed the same functional form of decreases in all three types of stress perceptions over the course of their pregnancy and as the pandemic persisted. Initial level of stress did not predict change over time. Anxiety symptoms had a two-class solution in which 25% of participants had high and convex patterns of anxiety, and 75% had low levels with concave patterns. DISCUSSION: Stress perceptions and anxiety patterns of change over the course of pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic were different. Therefore, to evaluate the well-being of pregnant women during a global health crisis, it is important to assess both stress perceptions and emotional stress responses (i.e. anxiety). Screening for anxiety symptoms in early pregnancy would be valuable as symptoms may not spontaneously decrease even when stressful conditions improve.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior trajectories and their associations with quality of life, disability, and all-cause mortality.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior (SB) are not stable conditions but change over time and among individuals, and both could have deleterious effects on health-related outcomes among older adults. This study aimed to identify the longitudinal trajectories of PA and SB and estimate their association with quality of life, disability, and all-cause mortality in a national sample of older Mexican adults. METHODS: Data comes from three waves of the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) in Mexico (2009, 2014, 2017). In total, 3209 older adults ages 50 and above were included. PA and SB were determined by using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Disability was measured using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0), quality of life using the WHOQOL (WHO Quality of Life) instrument, and all-cause mortality using a verbal autopsy. We used growth mixture modeling (GMM) to investigate the longitudinal trajectories of PA and SB. Three-level linear mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations of PA and SB with quality of life and disability and the Cox model for the association with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three longitudinal trajectories of PA and SB were found: low-PA-decreasers, moderate-PA-decreasers, and high-PA-decreasers for PA; and low-maintainers, steep-decreasers, and steep-increasers for SB. Decreased quality of life, increased disability, and all-cause mortality were all consistently associated with worse PA and SB trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the need for health policies and prevention strategies that promote PA and limit SB in middle-aged adults. Further studies should consider these activities/behaviors as exposures that vary throughout life and work to identify vulnerable groups of older adults for whom physical activation interventions and programs would be most impactful.

Sex-differential PTSD symptom trajectories across one year following suspected serious injury.

Background: Recent years have shown an increased application of prospective trajectory-oriented approaches to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Although women are generally considered at increased PTSD risk, sex and gender differences in PTSD symptom trajectories have not yet been extensively studied. Objective: To perform an in-depth investigation of differences in PTSD symptom trajectories across one-year post-trauma between men and women, by interpreting the general trends of trajectories observed in sex-disaggregated samples, and comparing within-trajectory symptom course and prevalence rates. Method: We included N = 554 participants (62.5% men, 37.5% women) from a multi-centre prospective cohort of emergency department patients with suspected severe injury. PTSD symptom severity was assessed at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-trauma, using the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-IV. Latent growth mixture modelling on longitudinal PTSD symptoms was performed within the sex-disaggregated whole samples. Bayesian modelling with informative priors was applied for reliable model estimation, considering the imbalanced prevalence of the expected latent trajectories. Results: In terms of general trends, the same trajectories were observed for men and women, i.e. resilient, recovery, chronic symptoms and delayed onset. Within-trajectory symptom courses were largely comparable, but resilient women had higher symptoms than resilient men. Sex differences in prevalence rates were observed for the recovery (higher in women) and delayed onset (higher in men) trajectories. Model fit for the sex-disaggregated samples was better than for the whole sample, indicating preferred application of sex-disaggregation. Analyses within the whole sample led to biased estimates of overall and sex-specific trajectory prevalence rates. Conclusions: Sex-disaggregated trajectory analyses revealed limited sex differences in PTSD symptom trajectories within one-year post-trauma in terms of general trends, courses and prevalence rates. The observed biased trajectory prevalence rates in the whole sample emphasize the necessity to apply appropriate statistical techniques when conducting sex-sensitive research.

Antecedentes: Los últimos años han demostrado una mayor aplicación de enfoques prospectivos orientados a la trayectoria para el trastorno de estrés postraumático (TEPT). Aunque generalmente se considera que las mujeres tienen un mayor riesgo de TEPT, las diferencias de sexo y género en las trayectorias de los síntomas del TEPT aún no se han estudiado ampliamente.Objetivo: Realizar una investigación en profundidad de las diferencias en las trayectorias de los síntomas del TEPT a lo largo de un año después de un trauma entre hombres y mujeres, interpretando las tendencias generales de las trayectorias observadas en muestras desagregadas por sexo, así como comparar el curso y la evolución de los síntomas dentro de la trayectoria y las tasas de prevalencia.Método: Incluimos N = 554 participantes (62.5% hombres, 37.5% mujeres) de una cohorte prospectiva multicéntrica de pacientes del servicio de urgencias con sospecha de lesión grave. La gravedad de los síntomas del TEPT se evaluó 1, 3, 6 y 12 meses después del trauma, utilizando la Escala de TEPT administrada por un médico para el DSM-IV. Se realizó un modelo de mezcla de crecimiento latente sobre los síntomas longitudinales de TEPT en las muestras desagregadas por sexo y en la muestra completa. Se aplicó un modelo bayesiano con antecedentes informativos para una estimación confiable del modelo, considerando la prevalencia desequilibrada de las trayectorias latentes esperadas.Resultados: En términos de tendencias generales, se observaron las mismas trayectorias para hombres y mujeres, es decir, resiliente, recuperación, síntomas crónicos y aparición tardía. Los cursos de síntomas dentro de la trayectoria fueron en gran medida comparables, pero las mujeres resilientes tenían más síntomas másque los hombres resilientes. Se observaron diferencias por sexo en las tasas de prevalencia para las trayectorias de recuperación (mayor en mujeres) y de inicio tardío (mayor en hombres). El ajuste del modelo para las muestras desagregadas por sexo fue mejor que para la muestra completa, lo que indica la aplicación preferida de la desagregación por sexo. Los análisis de la muestra completa llevaron a estimaciones sesgadas de las tasas de prevalencia de trayectorias generales y específicas por sexo.Conclusiones: Los análisis de trayectoria desagregados por sexo revelaron diferencias limitadas entre los sexos en las trayectorias de los síntomas del TEPT durante el año posterior al trauma en términos de tendencias generales, cursos y tasas de prevalencia. Las tasas de prevalencia de trayectoria sesgada observadas en el conjunto de la muestra enfatizan la necesidad de aplicar técnicas estadísticas apropiadas al realizar investigaciones que tengan en cuenta el sexo.

Patterns and predictors of dyspnoea following left ventricular assist device implantation.

AIMS: Dyspnoea is a common symptom of heart failure (HF) that often prompts patients to seek treatment. Implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) has been associated with reduced dyspnoea but it is unclear if all patients experience similar improvements in dyspnoea over time following LVAD implantation. Our aim was to identify distinct trajectories of dyspnoea symptoms over time following LVAD implantation and predictors of dyspnoea trajectory. We hypothesized that at least two, distinct trajectories of dyspnoea would be observed following LVAD implantation. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a secondary analysis of data from the Profiling Biobehavioral Responses to Mechanical Support in Advanced Heart Failure study. In the parent study, sociodemographic and clinical data were collected prior to LVAD implantation and at 1, 3, and 6 months following LVAD implantation from a sample (n = 101) of patients with advanced HF. Latent growth mixture modelling was performed to identify distinct trajectories of dyspnoea symptoms. Backwards stepwise logistic regression was used to identify predictors of dyspnoea trajectory. Two, distinct trajectories of dyspnoea symptoms were identified: sustained improvement and unsustained improvement. Participants who experienced sustained improvement (86.7% of sample) demonstrated large, significant improvement in dyspnoea from pre-implantation to 3 months post-implant followed by smaller, non-significant improvement from 3 to 6 months. Participants who experienced unsustained improvement (13.3% of sample) demonstrated initial improvement from pre-implantation to 3 months post-implantation followed by worsening of dyspnoea from 3 to 6 months. Greater depressive symptoms at baseline and living alone were significant predictors of unsustained improvement. CONCLUSION: Patients experience different patterns of dyspnoea over time following LVAD implantation. Clinicians should inquire about living arrangements and depressive symptoms at each visit to determine risk of unsustained improvement in dyspnoea.

Trajectories of childhood social isolation in a nationally representative cohort: Associations with antecedents and early adulthood outcomes.

Background: This study examined early life antecedents of childhood social isolation, whether these factors accounted for poor outcomes of isolated children, and how these associations varied according to patterns of stability and change in childhood isolation. Methods: Participants included 2232 children from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. We conducted growth mixture modelling (GMM) on combined parent and teacher reports of children's social isolation when children were 5, 7, 10 and 12 years, and we assessed associations with age-5 antecedents and age-18 outcomes using regression analyses. Results: We identified three linear developmental trajectories of increasing (4.75%), decreasing (5.25%) and low stable (90.00%) social isolation. Age-5 attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, emotional problems, prosocial behaviours, maternal personality (openness) and size of school were associated with the decreasing trajectory of social isolation. When controlling for these antecedents, increasingly isolated children were still more likely to experience ADHD symptoms, loneliness, lower job optimism and lower physical activity at age 18. Conclusions: Isolated children follow distinct patterns of change over childhood and isolation seems most detrimental to health at the time it is experienced. Social isolation can be a valuable indicator of co-occurring problems and provide targets for mental health intervention in young people.

Early weight gain trajectories in first episode anorexia: predictors of outcome for emerging adults in outpatient treatment.

BACKGROUND: Early response to treatment has been shown to be a predictor of later clinical outcomes in eating disorders (EDs). Specifically, early weight gain trajectories in anorexia nervosa (AN) have been shown to predict higher rates of later remission in inpatient treatment. However, no study has, as of yet, examined this phenomenon within outpatient treatment of first episode cases of AN or in emerging adults. METHODS: One hundred seven patients with AN, all between the ages of 16 and 25 and with an illness duration of < 3 years, received treatment via the first episode rapid early intervention in eating disorders (FREED) service pathway. Weight was recorded routinely across early treatment sessions and recovery outcomes (BMI > 18.5 kg/m2 and eating psychopathology) were assessed up to 1 year later. Early weight gain across the first 12 treatment sessions was investigated using latent growth mixture modelling to determine distinct classes of change. Follow-up clinical outcomes and remission rates were compared between classes, and individual and clinical characteristics at baseline (treatment start) were tested as potential predictors. RESULTS: Four classes of early treatment trajectory were identified. Three of these classes (n = 95), though differing in their early change trajectories, showed substantial improvement in clinical outcomes at final follow-up. One smaller class (n = 12), characterised by a 'higher' start BMI (> 17) and no early weight gain, showed negligible improvement 1 year later. Of the three treatment responding groups, levels of purging, depression, and patient reported carer expressed emotion (in the form of high expectations and low tolerance of the patient) determined class membership, although these findings were not significant after correcting for multiple testing. A higher BMI at treatment start was not sufficient to predict optimal clinical outcomes. CONCLUSION: First episode cases of AN treated via FREED fit into four distinct early response trajectory classes. These may represent subtypes of first episode AN patients. Three of these four trajectories included patients with substantial improvements 1 year later. For those in the non-response trajectory class, treatment adjustments or augmentations could be considered earlier, i.e., at treatment session 12.

A key feature of anorexia nervosa (AN) is an unhealthily low body weight. Previous studies show that more weight gained early in inpatient treatment leads to better outcomes. This study tried to see if this was also true for outpatients receiving treatment for the first time. All participants were emerging adults between the ages of 16 and 25 who had been ill for less than 3 years. Weight was recorded across the first 12 weekly treatment sessions. Statistics showed that the patients fit roughly into four different groups in early treatment, each with different starting weights and rates of weight gain in the first 12 treatment sessions. The group a patient belonged to could sometimes be predicted by vomiting behaviours, level of depression, and patients' perception of parental tolerance and expectations at the start of treatment. Out of the four groups, three did relatively well 1 year later, but one small group of patients did not. This small group had a higher starting weight than many of the other groups but did not gain any weight across the first 12 sessions. These patients could benefit from a change or increase in the amount or intensity of treatment after the first 12 treatment sessions.

Intervention impact on alcohol use, alcohol harms, and a combination of both: A latent class, secondary analysis of results from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use and alcohol-related harm (ARH) among adolescents places a substantial burden on health, and public services more generally. To date, attempts to intervene at a universal level have yielded results varying from iatrogenic to null, although some skill-enhancing universal interventions have successfully impacted drinking behaviors. One such intervention is SHAHRP. The present study is a secondary analysis of data from the STAMPP Trial, providing new, and more nuanced findings. METHODS: A total of 13,914 adolescents (41.7% female) participated in this cRCT where schools were randomly assigned to a control or intervention group. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify trajectory classes from baseline through third follow-up (+33 months) of adolescents on heavy episodic drinking (HED) and ARH. Extracted classes were related to school intervention participation using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Five trajectory classes of the HED and ARH composite were identified: Low (62%), Late Onset (16%), Early Onset (13%), Delayed Onset (7%), and Unstable (3%). The intervention was most strongly related to Late Onset (OR = 0.50, 95%CI [0.25, 1.01]) and Delayed Onset (OR = 0.55, 95%CI [0.26, 1.16]), although not statistically significant. With classes constructed with ARH only, the Delayed Onset class was significantly related to the intervention (OR = 0.60, 95%CI [0.43, 0.84]). CONCLUSIONS: These results support those previously reported on the STAMPP Trial and provide a more nuanced insight into the effects of the intervention.

Growth mixture models: a case example of the longitudinal analysis of patient-reported outcomes data captured by a clinical registry.

BACKGROUND: An assumption in many analyses of longitudinal patient-reported outcome (PRO) data is that there is a single population following a single health trajectory. One approach that may help researchers move beyond this traditional assumption, with its inherent limitations, is growth mixture modelling (GMM), which can identify and assess multiple unobserved trajectories of patients' health outcomes. We describe the process that was undertaken for a GMM analysis of longitudinal PRO data captured by a clinical registry for outpatients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: This expository paper describes the modelling approach and some methodological issues that require particular attention, including (a) determining the metric of time, (b) specifying the GMMs, and (c) including predictors of membership in the identified latent classes (groups or subtypes of patients with distinct trajectories). An example is provided of a longitudinal analysis of PRO data (patients' responses to the Atrial Fibrillation Effect on QualiTy-of-Life (AFEQT) Questionnaire) collected between 2008 and 2016 for a population-based cardiac registry and deterministically linked with administrative health data. RESULTS: In determining the metric of time, multiple processes were required to ensure that "time" accounted for both the frequency and timing of the measurement occurrences in light of the variability in both the number of measures taken and the intervals between those measures. In specifying the GMM, convergence issues, a common problem that results in unreliable model estimates, required constrained parameter exploration techniques. For the identification of predictors of the latent classes, the 3-step (stepwise) approach was selected such that the addition of predictor variables did not change class membership itself. CONCLUSIONS: GMM can be a valuable tool for classifying multiple unique PRO trajectories that have previously been unobserved in real-world applications; however, their use requires substantial transparency regarding the processes underlying model building as they can directly affect the results and therefore their interpretation.