Sea ice variability and trends in the Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica: Interaction with ENSO and SAM.

Antarctic sea ice variability is primarily associated with ocean-atmospheric forcing driven by anomalous conditions over the tropical regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The ice-ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean Sector (IOS) of Antarctica have been studied using monthly satellite and reanalysis observations over four decades (1979-2019). In this study, we revealed that the annual sea ice extent (SIE) in the IOS increases at a rate of 0.7 ± 0.9% decade-1, with a maximum increase in austral summer (5.9 ± 3.7% decade-1). The wavelet approach was used to determine the variability in IOS sea ice caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and southern annular mode (SAM). The SIE has a significant association with both indices during the summer and autumn. In comparison to ENSO, the sea ice variability associated with SAM is typically seasonal in nature and lacks distinct patterns. The wavelet coherence analysis revealed a relatively weak relationship between ENSO and SAM but a highly significant coherence between climatic indices and SIE. We observed that sea ice in the IOS is influenced significantly by climatic oscillations during their negative SAM/El Niño or positive SAM/La Niña phases. Furthermore, the study demonstrated a substantial impact of climatic disturbances in determining the sea ice variability in the IOS.

Changes in the Arctic Ocean Carbon Cycle With Diminishing Ice Cover.

Less than three decades ago only a small fraction of the Arctic Ocean (AO) was ice free and then only for short periods. The ice cover kept sea surface pCO2 at levels lower relative to other ocean basins that have been exposed year round to ever increasing atmospheric levels. In this study, we evaluate sea surface pCO2 measurements collected over a 6-year period along a fixed cruise track in the Canada Basin. The measurements show that mean pCO2 levels are significantly higher during low ice years. The pCO2 increase is likely driven by ocean surface heating and uptake of atmospheric CO2 with large interannual variability in the contributions of these processes. These findings suggest that increased ice-free periods will further increase sea surface pCO2, reducing the Canada Basin's current role as a net sink of atmospheric CO2.

Antarctic petrels 'on the ice rocks': wintering strategy of an Antarctic seabird.

There is a paucity of information on the foraging ecology, especially individual use of sea-ice features and icebergs, over the non-breeding season in many seabird species. Using geolocators and stable isotopes, we defined the movements, distribution and diet of adult Antarctic petrels Thalassoica antarctica from the largest known breeding colony, the inland Svarthamaren, Antarctica. More specifically, we examined how sea-ice concentration and free-drifting icebergs affect the distribution of Antarctic petrels. After breeding, birds moved north to the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Weddell sector of the Southern Ocean, following its northward extension during freeze-up in April, and they wintered there in April-August. There, the birds stayed predominantly out of the water (60-80% of the time) suggesting they use icebergs as platforms to stand on and/or to rest. Feather δ15N values encompassed one full trophic level, indicating that birds fed on various proportions of crustaceans and fish/squid, most likely Antarctic krill Euphausia superba and the myctophid fish Electrona antarctica and/or the squid Psychroteuthis glacialis. Birds showed strong affinity for the open waters of the northern boundary of the MIZ, an important iceberg transit area, which offers roosting opportunities and rich prey fields. The strong association of Antarctic petrels with sea-ice cycle and icebergs suggests the species can serve, year-round, as a sentinel of environmental changes for this remote region.

Ultratrace analysis of nitrosodipropylamine in drinking water by Ice Concentration Linked with Extractive Stirrer gas-chromatography electron-ionization mass-spectrometry.

Nitrosoamines (NAs), including nitrosodipropylamine (NDPA), are highly toxic drinking water contaminants with minimum reporting levels (MRLs) in the parts-per-trillion range (0.2-20 ng/L). The quantification of NAs at these concentrations is extremely difficult, requiring both sophisticated instrumentation and laborious sample preparation procedures. An advanced sample preparation technique, ICE Concentration Linked with Extractive Stirrer (ICECLES), coupled with gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry, was used to analyze NDPA (MRL = 7 ng/L). ICECLES allowed ultratrace analysis of NDPA, producing an LOD of 0.2 ng/L, will below the MRL, and a linear range of 2-50 ng/L (using NDPA-d14 as an internal standard). Both inter- and intraassay precisions were ≤13%RSD, while the method accuracy was 100 ± 17.5%. The ICECLES method was applied to screen for possible NA contamination in selected drinking water sources. The concentration of NDPA in one drinking water source was 2.38 ± 0.34 ng/L and was detected (i.e., concentrations ≥ LOD), but was not quantifiable, in the other samples.

Increased sea ice concentration worsens fledging condition and juvenile survival in a pagophilic seabird, the snow petrel.

Polar sea ice is changing rapidly, threatening many taxa in the Arctic and the Antarctic. Little is known about the effects of sea ice on early life-history traits of sea ice specialist species, although juvenile stages are a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment. We examined how annual variation in sea ice concentration (SIC) affects juvenile survival and body condition at fledging in the snow petrel Pagodroma nivea using long-term datasets encompassing 22 years for body condition and 37 years for juvenile survival. We show that SIC and southern annular mode (SAM), the principal mode of variability of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, have strong nonlinear effects on juvenile survival and body condition. Below ca 20-30% SIC, body condition remained stable, but decreased almost linearly for higher SIC. Juvenile survival was negatively related to SIC and to SAM during the chick rearing period. We suggest that the base of the sea ice food web would be directly affected by sea ice conditions, thus acting locally on the abundance and structure of prey communities.

Statistical Analysis of SSMIS Sea Ice Concentration Threshold at the Arctic Sea Ice Edge during Summer Based on MODIS and Ship-Based Observational Data.

The threshold of sea ice concentration (SIC) is the basis for accurately calculating sea ice extent based on passive microwave (PM) remote sensing data. However, the PM SIC threshold at the sea ice edge used in previous studies and released sea ice products has not always been consistent. To explore the representable value of the PM SIC threshold corresponding on average to the position of the Arctic sea ice edge during summer in recent years, we extracted sea ice edge boundaries from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice product (MOD29 with a spatial resolution of 1 km), MODIS images (250 m), and sea ice ship-based observation points (1 km) during the fifth (CHINARE-2012) and sixth (CHINARE-2014) Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions, and made an overlay and comparison analysis with PM SIC derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, with a spatial resolution of 25 km) in the summer of 2012 and 2014. Results showed that the average SSMIS SIC threshold at the Arctic sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted from MOD29 was 33%, which was higher than that of the commonly used 15% discriminant threshold. The average SIC threshold at sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted by visual interpretation from four scenes of the MODIS image was 35% when compared to the average value of 36% from the MOD29 extracted ice edge pixels for the same days. The average SIC of 31% at the sea ice edge points extracted from ship-based observations also confirmed that choosing around 30% as the SIC threshold during summer is recommended for sea ice extent calculations based on SSMIS PM data. These results can provide a reference for further studying the variation of sea ice under the rapidly changing Arctic.

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.

Living on the edge of a shrinking habitat: the ivory gull, Pagophila eburnea, an endangered sea-ice specialist.

The ongoing decline of sea ice threatens many Arctic taxa, including the ivory gull. Understanding how ice-edges and ice concentrations influence the distribution of the endangered ivory gulls is a prerequisite to the implementation of adequate conservation strategies. From 2007 to 2013, we used satellite transmitters to monitor the movements of 104 ivory gulls originating from Canada, Greenland, Svalbard-Norway and Russia. Although half of the positions were within 41 km of the ice-edge (75% within 100 km), approximately 80% were on relatively highly concentrated sea ice. Ivory gulls used more concentrated sea ice in summer, when close to their high-Arctic breeding ground, than in winter. The best model to explain the distance of the birds from the ice-edge included the ice concentration within approximately 10 km, the month and the distance to the colony. Given the strong links between ivory gull, ice-edge and ice concentration, its conservation status is unlikely to improve in the current context of sea-ice decline which, in turn, will allow anthropogenic activities to develop in regions that are particularly important for the species.

Multi-plate freeze concentration: Recovery of solutes occluded in the ice and determination of thawing time.

The retention of solutes in the ice formed in a falling-film freeze concentrator (multi-plate freeze-concentrator) was analysed. Solutions of fructose, glucose and sucrose and a simulated juice with initial concentrations of 5, 10, 15 and 20 °Brix were freeze concentrated. The ice produced in the four steps of the process retains solutes at levels of 1.0-8.8 °Brix (expressed as solute mass fraction in the ice). The recovery of these solutes during thawing can increase overall system efficiency. All thawing steps were carried out dividing the sample in 10 fractions at 20 ℃. The first thawed fractions showed solute concentrations that were 1.9-3.3 times higher than the mean solute mass fraction in the ice, while the last fractions of ice showed very low levels of retained solutes, less than 0.2 times the mean solute mass fraction in the ice. It was found that fractionated thawing can recover most of the solute content in the ice. The procedure presented in the present study allows the determination of the solute concentration achieved in the various thawing fractions and predicts the thawing time required for a given form factor, melting temperature and initial solute mass fraction in the ice.

Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century.

The primary habitat of polar bears is sea ice, but in Western Hudson Bay (WH), the seasonal ice cycle forces polar bears ashore each summer. Survival of bears on land in WH is correlated with breakup and the ice-free season length, and studies suggest that exceeding thresholds in these variables will lead to large declines in the WH population. To estimate when anthropogenic warming may have progressed sufficiently to threaten the persistence of polar bears in WH, we predict changes in the ice cycle and the sea ice concentration (SIC) in spring (the primary feeding period of polar bears) with a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model and warming forced with 21st century IPCC greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high). We define critical years for polar bears based on proposed thresholds in breakup and ice-free season and we assess when ice-cycle conditions cross these thresholds. In the three scenarios, critical years occur more commonly after 2050. From 2001 to 2050, 2 critical years occur under B1 and A2, and 4 under A1B; from 2051 to 2100, 8 critical years occur under B1, 35 under A1B and 41 under A2. Spring SIC in WH is high (>90%) in all three scenarios between 2001 and 2050, but declines rapidly after 2050 in A1B and A2. From 2090 to 2100, the mean spring SIC is 84 (±7)% in B1, 56 (±26)% in A1B and 20 (±13)% in A2. Our predictions suggest that the habitat of polar bears in WH will deteriorate in the 21st century. Ice predictions in A1B and A2 suggest that the polar bear population may struggle to persist after ca. 2050. Predictions under B1 suggest that reducing GHG emissions could allow polar bears to persist in WH throughout the 21st century.