Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity.

Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.

Fragmentation and matrix contrast favor understory plants through negative cascading effects on a strong competitor palm.

Understanding the patterns and processes driving biodiversity maintenance in fragmented tropical forests is urgently needed for conservation planning, especially in species-rich forest reserves. Of particular concern are the effects that habitat modifications at the landscape scale may have on forest regeneration and ecosystem functioning: a topic that has received limited attention. Here, we assessed the effects of landscape structure (i.e., forest cover, open area matrices, forest fragmentation, and mean inter-patch isolation distance) on understory plant assemblages in the Los Tuxtlas Biosphere Reserve, Mexico. Previous studies suggest that the demographic burst of the strong competitor palm Astrocaryum mexicanum in the core area of this reserve limits plant recruitment and imperils biodiversity conservation within this protected area. Yet, the local and landscape predictors of this palm, and its impact on tree recruitment at a regional scale are unknown. Thus, we used structural equation modeling to assess the direct and cascading effects of landscape structure on stem and species density in the understory of 20 forest sites distributed across this biodiversity hotspot. Indirect paths included the effect of landscape structure on tree basal area (a proxy of local disturbance), and the effects of these variables on A. mexicanum. Density of A. mexicanum mainly increased with decreasing both fragmentation and open areas in the matrix (matrix contrast, hereafter), and such an increase in palm density negatively affected stem and species density in the understory. The negative direct effect of matrix contrast on stem density was overridden by the indirect positive effects (i.e., through negative cascading effects on A. mexicanum), resulting in a weak effect of matrix contrast on stem density. These findings suggest that dispersal limitation and negative edge effects in more fragmented landscapes dominated by open areas prevent the proliferation of this palm species, enhancing the diversity and abundance of understory trees. This "positive" news adds to an increasing line of evidence suggesting that fragmentation may have some positive effects on biodiversity, in this case by preventing the proliferation of species that can jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical reserves.

Landscape, Climate and Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Outbreaks.

We performed a literature review in order to improve our understanding of how landscape and climate drivers affect HCPS outbreaks. Anthropogenic landscape changes such as forest loss, fragmentation and agricultural land uses are related with a boost in hantavirus reservoir species abundance and hantavirus prevalence in tropical areas, increasing HCPS risk. Additionally, higher precipitation, especially in arid regions, favors an increase in vegetational biomass, which augments the resources for reservoir rodents, also increasing HCPS risk. Although these relationships were observed, few studies described it so far, and the ones that did it are concentrated in few places. To guide future research on this issue, we build a conceptual model relating landscape and climate variables with HCPS outbreaks and identified research opportunities. We point out the need for studies addressing the effects of landscape configuration, temperature and the interaction between climate and landscape variables. Critical landscape thresholds are also highly relevant, once HCPS risk transmission can increase rapidly above a certain degree of landscape degradation. These studies could be relevant to implement preventive measures, creating landscapes that can mitigate disease spread risk.