Assessment of Five-Year Relative Survival of Patients With Endometrial Cancer: A Period Analysis.

Background: Endometrial cancer is one of the most common female cancers globally and in China. Although timely assessment of 5-year relative survival is crucial for guiding secondary prevention and early screening programs for endometrial cancer patients, those kinds of data are scarce in China. We aimed to provide a timely and accurate assessment of 5-year relative survival for patients with endometrial cancer from eastern China. Methods: Overall, 945 patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer during 2004 - 2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, eastern China were included. Period analysis was used to calculate 5-year relative survival for overall and the stratification by age at diagnosis and region. Model-based period analysis was used to predict the 5-year relative survival for the upcoming period of 2019 - 2023. Results: We found that 5-year relative survival during 2014 - 2018 reached 86.4% for overall, while urban areas had higher survival compared to rural areas (91.3% vs. 85.3%). Furthermore, there was a clear age gradient, decreasing from 89.3% for age < 55 years to 80.5% for age > 74 years. Predicted 5-year relative survival for the upcoming period 2019 - 2023 could reach 88.4%. Conclusions: We provide, a timely and accurate assessment of 5-year relative survival for patients with endometrial cancer from Taizhou, eastern China, reaching 86.4% for overall. Our finding has important implications for the overall evaluation of early detection and screening programs for patients with endometrial cancer in eastern China.

Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis.

Objective: To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong. Methods: Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence. Results: Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging. Conclusion: The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.

Use of Period Analysis to Timely Assess Five-Year Relative Survival for the Patients With Bone Cancer.

Background: While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with bone cancer is essential for evaluation on early detection and prognosis level of treatment of bone cancer, those data are extremely scarce in China. We aimed to timely and accurately assess long-term survival for patients with bone cancer in Eastern China. Methods: Patients diagnosed with bone cancer during 2004 - 2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, Eastern China were included. Five-year relative survival (RS) of bone cancer patients was calculated by period analysis for overall and the stratification. We further predicted 5-year RS during upcoming 2019 - 2023 using a model-based period analysis and survival data during 2004 - 2018. Results: Overall, 5-year RS for patients with bone cancer during 2014 - 2018 reached 46.6%, being 40.8% for male and 51.0% for female. Five-year RS declined along with aging, decreasing from 58.9% for age < 45 years to 41.5% for age > 60 years, while 5-year RS for urban area was higher compared to rural area (59.1% vs. 44.3%). The 5-year RS during upcoming 2019 - 2023 reached 48.3%. We found a clear upward trend in 5-year RS during 2004 - 2023 for overall and the stratification by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. Conclusions: We found that, for first time in China using period analysis, most up-to-date 5-year RS for patients with bone cancer reached 46.6% during 2014 - 2018, and is projected to reach 48.3% for the period 2019 - 2023, which has important implications for timely evaluation on early detection and prognosis level of treatment for patients with bone cancer in Eastern China.

A Luciferase Imaging-Based Assay for Studying Temperature Compensation of the Circadian Clock.

The pace of circadian rhythms remains relatively unchanged across a physiologically relevant range of temperatures, a phenomenon known as temperature compensation. Temperature compensation is a defining characteristic of circadian rhythms, ensuring that clock-regulated processes occur at approximately the same time of day across a wide range of conditions. Despite the identification of several genes involved in the regulation of temperature compensation, the molecular mechanisms underlying this process are still not well understood. High-throughput assays of circadian period are essential for the investigation of temperature compensation. In this chapter, we present a luciferase imaging-based method that enables robust and accurate examination of temperature compensation in the plant circadian clock.

Evaluation and Prediction Analysis of 3- and 5-Year Relative Survival Rates of Patients with Cervical Cancer: A Model-Based Period Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer remains a threat to female health due to high mortality. Clarification of the long-term trend of survival rate over time and the associated risk factors would be greatly informative to improve the prognosis of cervical cancer patients. METHODS: This retrospective study was based on data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the United States. The 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with cervical cancer during 2002-2006, 2007-2011, and 2012-2016 were analyzed. Period analysis was used to assess the variation in survival rate stratified by age, race, and socioeconomic status during the 15-year study period and then predicted the relative survival rate in the following period from 2017 to 2021. RESULTS: During 2002-2016, the 3-year relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients increased from 73.1% to 73.5% with a high jump between 2007 and 2011. This upward trend is expected to continue to 74.3% between 2017 and 2021. Patients older than 60 years, black ethnicity, or medium and high poverty status were likely to have a lower relative survival rate. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed the increased relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients over years and identified relevant risk factors. Targeted initiatives for elderly and socially underprivileged individuals may be able to mitigate inequality.

Why was the study conducted? Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers endangering global women's health. Although there are currently relevant screening methods and vaccines, cervical cancer still leads to a higher risk of death in infected women and poses a serious threat to women's health. Therefore, it would be informative for future policy making if the risk factors affecting prognosis were assessed and the trend of long-term survival rate of patients with cervical cancer over time was predicted.What did the researchers do? We extracted data on cervical cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2002 and 2016 and used a model-based period analysis to assess the characteristics of the 3- and 5-year relative survival rates of cervical cancer patients stratified by age, race, and socioeconomic status. The relative survival rate for the period from 2017 to 2021 was projected.What did the researchers find? Our study found that the 3-year relative survival rate for cervical cancer patients increased from 73.1% to 73.5% between 2002 and 2016, with a jump between 2007 and 2011. Patients older than 60 years, those of black ethnicity, or those with medium and high poverty status were more likely to have a low relative survival rate.What do the findings mean? Our study confirms that the relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients has increased in recent years and has maintained an overall upward trend. Our findings suggest that age, race, and socioeconomic status are relevant risk factors. These findings would help us to predict future trends, better allocate medical resources, and optimize health policies to improve the prognosis of cervical cancer, such as targeting the elderly and other vulnerable groups.

Analysis and prediction of 5-year survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a model-based period analysis.

Background: The survival and prognosis of patients are significantly threatened by cutaneous melanoma (CM), which is a highly aggressive disease. It is therefore crucial to determine the most recent survival rate of CM. This study used population-based cancer registry data to examine the 5-year relative survival rate of CM in the US. Methods: Period analysis was used to assess the relative survival rate and trends of patients with CM in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004-2018. And based on the data stratified by age, gender, race and subtype in the SEER database, a generalized linear model was 12established to predict the 5-year relative survival rate of CM patients from 2019 to 2023. Results: The 5-year relative survival increased to various degrees for both total CM and CM subtypes during the observation period. The improvement was greatest for amelanotic melanoma, increasing from 69.0% to 81.5%. The 5-year overall relative survival rates of CM were 92.9%, 93.5%, and 95.6% for 2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018, respectively. Females had a marginally higher survival rate than males for almost all subtypes, older people had lower survival rates than younger people, white patients had higher survival rates than nonwhite ones, and urban locations had higher rates of survival from CM than rural locations did. The survival rate of CM was significantly lower for distant metastasis. Conclusion: The survival rate of patients with CM gradually improved overall during 2004-2018. With the predicted survival rate of 96.7% for 2019-2023, this trend will still be present. Assessing the changes experienced by patients with CM over the previous 15 years can help in predicting the future course of CM. It also provides a scientific foundation that associated departments can use to develop efficient tumor prevention and control strategies.

Trends and future projections of liver cancer incidence in Hong Kong: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cancer remains a significant burden in Hong Kong. We sought to examine trends in liver cancer incidence using 30 years of cancer registry data in Hong Kong. Additionally, we aimed to assess the impact of age, period and birth cohort on liver cancer incidence, provided projections for liver cancer incidence until 2030, and examined the drivers of liver cancer incidence. METHODS: Data on liver cancer incidence were collected from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (HKCaR). We assessed age, period, and birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort (APC) models. We employed Bayesian APC analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project the future burden of liver cancer in Hong Kong. Furthermore, we attributed the changes in new liver cancer cases to population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS: The study included a total of 51,333 individuals, of whom 39,287 (76.53%) were male. From 1991 to 2020, the age-standardized liver cancer incidence rate in Hong Kong continued declining, while the number of new cases increased significantly, especially among males. The net drift, representing the overall annual percentage change of the age-adjusted rate, was - 3.06% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.31% to -2.80%) for males and - 3.85% (95% CI: -4.61% to -3.09%) for females. Local drift, which estimates the annual percentage change over time specific to age group, decreased in all age groups for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in younger age groups. The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer also showed decreasing trends for both sexes. The study projected a decline in liver cancer cases for males but an increase for females in Hong Kong, with an estimated 1,083 cases in males and 710 cases in females by 2030. Demographic decomposition analysis revealed that while population growth and ageing were the main drivers of increased liver cancer cases, epidemiologic shifts mostly offset these factors. CONCLUSION: The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer in Hong Kong declined due to epidemiological changes. Although the age-standardized incidence rates of liver cancer have also declined, demographic and epidemiological factors have led to lower case expectations in males but a likely increase in females. Further research and epidemiological assessment of the disease are needed.

Changing patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in Hong Kong: a 30-year analysis and future projections.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the relationship between age, period, and birth cohort with the incidence trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) in Hong Kong, make projections through 2030 and parse the drivers of the incidence. METHODS: Using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry, we used an age-period-cohort model to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC incidence trends and make projections. We further assessed the drivers of NPC incidence using a validated decomposition algorithm. RESULTS: From 1991 to 2020, crude and age-standardized incidence rates of NPC decreased significantly. The net drifts showed significant downward trends for both sexes, and local drift declined in all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios revealed monotonic declining patterns for both sexes. Projections suggested that NPC incidence will continue to decline. Population decomposition showed that while population growth and ageing have led to an increase in NPC cases, epidemiologic changes offset these increases, resulting in an encouraging downward trend in the incidence and new NPC cases in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS: The period and cohort risk of NPC in Hong Kong decreased, and epidemiologic changes offset the contribution of demographic factors, resulting in a continued decline in NPC incidence and cases.

Use of period analysis to provide a timely assessment of 5-year relative survival for pancreatic cancer patients from Taizhou, eastern China.

Assessing long-term tumor survival rates is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of tumor treatment and burden. However, timely assessment of long-term survival in patients with pancreatic cancer is lagging in China. In this study, we applied period analysis to estimate the long-term survival of pancreatic cancer patients using data from four population-based cancer registries in Taizhou city, eastern China. A total of 1121 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 2004 and 2018 were included. We assessed the 5-year relative survival (RS) using period analysis and further stratified by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. The 5-year RS during 2014-2018 overall reached 18.9% (14.7% for men and 23.3% for women, respectively). A decrease of the 5-year RS from 30.3% to 11.2% was observed in four diagnostic age gradients (< 55, 55-64, 65-74, and > 74 years age groups). The 5-year RS was higher in urban (24.2%) than in rural (17.4%) areas. Moreover, the 5-year RS of pancreatic cancer patients showed an overall increasing trend for the three periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018). Our study, using period analysis for the first time in China, provides the latest estimates of the survival of patients with pancreatic cancer, which provides essential evidence for the prevention and intervention of pancreatic cancer. The results also indicate the importance of further applications of the period analysis for more up-to-date and accurate survival estimates.

Trends and projections of ovarian cancer incidence in Hong Kong: A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzed the incidence of ovarian cancer in Hong Kong and its association with age, calendar period and birth cohort, made projections through 2030, and attributed differences in new cancer cases to demographic and epidemiologic changes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Incidence data for ovarian cancer were obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. We employed the age-period-cohort modeling approach to investigate the association between ovarian cancer incidence and age in Hong Kong women, with particular emphasis on examining the changing trends of period and cohort effects on incidence. We projected the incidence of ovarian cancer in Hong Kong between 2018 and 2030 and attributed the rise in new cancer cases to epidemiologic and demographic shifts. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2017, a total of 11 182 women were diagnosed with ovarian cancer in Hong Kong. Crude and age-standardized rates increased from 8.2 and 7.8 per 100 000 person-years to 16.3 and 11.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. New cases of ovarian cancer rose from 225 in 1990 to 645 in 2017. We observed an increased risk of ovarian cancer throughout the study period and in the post-1940 birth cohort. The projected incidence rate and new cases of ovarian cancer are expected to continue growing due to demographic and epidemiologic changes such as fertility patterns and lifestyle factors, with an estimated 981 cases in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The period risk and cohort risk of ovarian cancer among Hong Kong women is increasing. Demographic and epidemiologic changes may continue to increase ovarian cancer incidence and new cases in Hong Kong.

Use of Period Analysis to Timely Assess Five-Year Relative Survival for Patients with Ovarian Cancer from Taizhou, Eastern China.

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer is a deadly gynecologic malignancy with a poor prognosis. It is essential to evaluate the early detection and screening programs of ovarian cancer via timely assessment of long-time survival, particularly in China where those data are incredibly limited. Here, we aimed to provide timely and accurately assessment of long-term survival estimate of ovarian cancer patients from eastern China. METHODS: Data of 770 ovarian cancer patients diagnosed between 2004-2018 were obtained from four cancer registries in Taizhou, eastern China, were included. We used period analysis to calculate five-year relative survival (RS) of aforementioned ovarian cancer patients for overall and the stratification by age at diagnosis and region. RESULTS: Our findings demonstrated that the overall five-year RS for ovarian cancer patients in Taizhou between 2014 and 2018 was 69.2%, while urban areas were higher compared to rural areas (77.6% vs. 64.9%). We also observed a significant age gradient with the five-year RS decreasing from 79.6% for age group < 55 years to 66.9% for age group > 74 years. Furthermore, we identified a clear upward trend of five-year RS over the study period, both overall and stratified by region and age at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: This is the first study in China using period analysis to provide the most up-to-date five-year RS for ovarian cancer patients from Taizhou, eastern China, which reaches 69.2% during 2014-2018. Our results provide valuable information for timely assessment of early detection and screening programs for ovarian cancer in eastern China.

Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons.

This study aims to present an alternative measure of fertility-cross-sectional average length of life by parity (CALP)-which: (1) is a period fertility indicator using all available cohort information; (2) captures the dynamics of parity transitions; and (3) links information on fertility quantum and timing together as part of a single phenomenon. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we calculate CALP for 12 countries in the Global North. Our results show that women spend the longest time at parity zero on average, and in countries where women spend comparatively longer time at parity zero, they spend fewer years at parities one and two. The analysis is extended by decomposing the differences in CALPs between Sweden and the United States, revealing age- and cohort-specific contributions to population-level differences in parity-specific fertility patterns. The decomposition illustrates how high teenage fertility in the United States dominates the differences between these two countries in the time spent at different parities.

Using period analysis to timely assess and predict 5-year relative survival for colorectal cancer patients in Taizhou, eastern China.

INTRODUCTION: While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is essential for evaluation on early detection and screening programs of colorectal cancer, those data are extremely scarce in China. We aimed to timely and accurately assess long-term survival for CRC patients in eastern China. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with CRC during 2004-2018 and followed up until December 31, 2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, eastern China were included. Period analysis was used to calculate 5-year relative survival (RS) for overall and the stratification by sex, age at diagnosis and region. The projected 5-year RS of CRC patients during 2019-2023 was also assessed using a model-based period analysis. RESULTS: Overall 5-year RS for patients with CRC during 2014-2018 reached 78.8%, being 74.9% for men and 86.1% for women. 5-year RS declined along with aging, decreasing from 84.1% for age < 45 years to 48.9% for age > 74 years, while 5-year RS for urban area was higher compared to rural area (83.9% vs. 75.8%). Projected overall 5-year RS of CRC patients could reach 85.9% during the upcoming period 2019-2023. CONCLUSIONS: We provided, for first time in China using period analysis, most up-to-date 5-year RS for patients with CRC from Taizhou, eastern China and also found 5-year RS for CRC patients have improved greatly during 2004-2018.

Use of period analysis to timely assess 5-year relative survival for breast cancer patients from Taizhou, Eastern China.

Objectives: While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with breast cancer is essential for evaluation on early detection and screening programs, those data are extremely scant in China. We aimed to derive most up-to-date survival estimates and to predict future survival using the cancer registry data from Taizhou city, Eastern China. Methods: Patients diagnosed with breast cancer during 2004-2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, Eastern China were included. Period analysis was used to calculate 5-year relative survival (RS) for the overall population and according to the stratification factors sex, age at diagnosis and geographic region. We further predict the upcoming 5-year RS during 2019-2023, using continuous data from three 5-year periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018) and a model-based period approach. Results: Overall 6159 patients diagnosed with breast cancer during 2004-2018 were enrolled. The 5-year RS for breast cancer in 2014-2018 reached 88.8%, while women were higher compared to men (90.5% versus 83.7%) and urban areas were higher compared to rural areas (91.9% versus 86.7%). Additionally, we found a clear gradient by age at diagnosis, ranging from 94.8% for age<45 years to 83.3% for age>74 years. Projected overall 5-year RS for the upcoming 2019-2023 could reach 91.5% (84.8% for men and 93.5% for women). Conclusions: We provided, for first time in China, using period analysis, most up-to-date 5-year RS (88.8%) for patients with breast cancer from Taizhou, Eastern China. We also demonstrate the 5-year RS has improved greatly over last 15 years, which has important implications for timely evaluation of early detection and screening programs.

Recent estimates and predictions of 5-year survival rate in patients with pancreatic cancer: A model-based period analysis.

Background: The 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer (PC) is incredibly low, resulting in this often being a fatal disease. Timely and accurate assessment of the survival rate and prognosis of patients with PC is of great significance for the development of new programs for prevention, monitoring, and treatment. Methods: Period analysis and further stratified analysis were used to determine the 5-year relative survival rate (RSR) of patients with PC from 2002 to 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) project database of the National Cancer Institute. Based on this, a generalized linear model was created to predict the survival rate of patients from 2017 to 2021. Result: During 2002-2016, the 5-year RSR of patients with PC increased from 7.9 to 23.7%. The generalized linear model predicted that the survival rate had increased to 33.9% during 2017-2021, and hence, it was still unacceptably low. The survival rate of patients aged ≥75 years at diagnosis was the lowest among all age groups and was predicted to be only 21.4% during 2017-2021. Notably, the survival rate of patients with differentiation grade III at diagnosis remains particularly low at 7.6%. Conclusion: The survival rates of patients with PC, although slightly improved, remain extremely low. Timely assessment of the trend of survival rate changes in patients with PC further improves the prognosis of tumor patients and provides data support for relevant medical works to formulate effective tumor prevention and control policies.

Analysis and prediction of relative survival trends in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the United States using a model-based period analysis method.

Background: Survival rates are usually used to evaluate the effect of cancer treatment and prevention. This study aims to analyze the 5-year relative survival of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in United States using population-based cancer registry data. Methods: A period analysis was used to evaluate the improvement in long-term prognosis of patients with NHL from 2004 to 2018, and a generalized linear model was developed to predict the 5-year relative survival rates of patients during 2019-2023 based on data from the SEER database stratified by age, sex, race and subtype. Results: In this study, relative survival improved for all NHL, although the extent of improvement varied by sex, age group and lymphoma subtype. Survival improvement was also noted for NHL subtypes, although the extent varied, with marginal-zone lymphoma having the highest 5-year relative survival rate (92.5%) followed by follicular lymphoma (91.6%) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (87.3%). Across all subtypes, survival rates were slightly higher in females than in males. Survival rates are lower in the elderly than in the young. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that black patients had lower NHL survival rates than white patients. Survival rates for NHL were higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Patients with extra-nodal NHL had a higher survival rate than patients with nodal NHL. Conclusion: Overall, patient survival rates for NHL gradually improved during 2004-2018. The trend continues with a survival rate of 75.2% for the period 2019-2023. Analysis by NHL subtype and subgroups indicating that etiology and risk factors may differ by subtype. Identification of population-specific prevention strategies and treatments for each subtype can be aided by understanding these variations.

Timely Estimates of 5-Year Relative Survival for Patients With Cervical Cancer: A Period Analysis Using Cancer Registry Data From Taizhou, Eastern China.

Objectives: While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with cervical cancer is essential for the evaluation of early detection and screening programs for cervical cancer, those data are extremely scarce in China. We aimed to timely and accurately assess long-term survival for patients with cervical cancer in eastern China, using cancer registry data from Taizhou, eastern China. Methods: Patients diagnosed with cervical cancer during 2004-2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, eastern China were included. A period analysis was used to calculate the 5-year relative survival (RS) overall and on stratification by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. Additionally, the projected 5-year relative survival (RS) of patients with cervical cancer during 2019-2023 was evaluated, using a model-based period analysis. Results: Overall 5-year RS for patients with cervical cancer during 2014-2018 reached 90.9%. When stratified by age at diagnosis, we found a clear age gradient for 5-year RS, declining from 95.6% for age <45 years to 68.7% for age >74 years, while urban areas had higher 5-year RS compared to rural areas (92.9 vs. 88.6%). We found a clear increasing trend of 5-year RS during 2004-2018 overall and on stratification by region and age at diagnosis. The projected overall 5-year RS is expected to reach 94.2% for the period 2019-2023. Conclusions: We found that, for the first time in China, using period analysis, the most up-to-date (during 2014-2018) 5-year RS for patients with cervical cancer reached 90.9%. Our data have important implications for the timely evaluation of early detection and screening programs for patients with cervical cancer in eastern China.

Analysis and Prediction of the Survival Trends of Patients with Clear-Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Model-Based Period Analysis, 2001-2015.

BACKGROUND: Clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide whose poor prognosis results in a serious disease burden on patients. The changing trend of the long-term relative survival rates (RSRs) of patients with ccRCC was analyzed in this study to evaluate their treatment results over a 15-year period. METHODS: This study is a retrospective study, which assessed and predicted the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of patients with ccRCC during 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020 using data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Period analysis was used in this study to analyze the data from the SEER database and to assess survival differences according to age, sex, race, and socioeconomic status (SES) during the 15-year study period by comparing Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: During 2001-2015, the 5-year RSR of patients with ccRCC increased from 78.4% to 83.0%, and the generalized linear model predicted that the 5-year RSR increased to 85.7% during 2016-2020. The RSR of patients with ccRCC differed significantly with SES, race, sex, and age. Compared with male patients, the survival advantage of female patients decreased as their age increased. The RSR of all patients with ccRCC was also lower in patients with a lower SES and of black race. CONCLUSION: This study found an improvement in the RSR of patients with ccRCC during 2001-2020. Understanding the change trend of the survival rate of patients with ccRCC is helpful to improve the design of clinical trials. It also provides basic data and a scientific basis for evaluating the harm of ccRCC on the health of affected patients and the effect of cancer prevention, and developing cancer prevention plans.

Using Period Analysis to Timely Assess and Predict 5-Year Relative Survival for Liver Cancer Patients From Taizhou, Eastern China.

Introduction: While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with liver cancer is essential for the evaluation of early detection and screening programs of liver cancer, those data are extremely scarce in China. We aimed to timely and accurately assess long-term survival for liver cancer patients in eastern China. Methods: Patients diagnosed with liver cancer during 2004-2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, eastern China, were included. The period analysis was used to calculate the 5-year relative survival (RS) for overall and the stratification by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. The projected 5-year RS of liver cancer patients during 2019-2023 was also assessed using a model-based period analysis. Results: The overall 5-year RS for patients with liver cancer during 2014-2018 reached 32.4%, being 29.3% for men and 36.1% for women. The 5-year RS declined along with aging, decreasing from 38.2% for age <45 years to 18.8% for age >74 years, while the 5-year RS for urban area was higher compared to rural area (36.8% vs. 29.3%). The projected overall 5-year RS of liver cancer patients could reach 41.4% during the upcoming period 2019-2023. Conclusions: We provided, for first time in China using the period analysis, the most up-to-date 5-year RS for patients with liver cancer from Taizhou, eastern China, and also found that the 5-year RS for liver cancer patients have improved greatly during 2004-2018, which has important implications for the timely evaluation of early detection and screening programs for patients with liver cancer in eastern China.

Recent Estimates and Predictions of 5-Year Survival in Patients with Gastric Cancer: A Model-Based Period Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The overall incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have steadily declined in the United States over the past few decades, but it is still a serious disease burden for patients. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the latest survival rate of gastric cancer. METHODS: Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, this study analyzed the age-standardized relative survival rates and survival trends of gastric cancer cases in 2007-2011 and 2012-2016 using period analysis, and the survival rate 2017-2021 was predicted using a generalized linear model based on the period analysis. RESULTS: During 2007-2016, the 5-year relative survival rate of patients with gastric cancer continued to rise, and the same trend was observed in 2017-2021. The 5-year overall age-standardized relative survival rates in 2007-2011, 2012-2016, and 2017-2021 were 38.3%, 40.6%, and 42.9%, respectively. However, despite these favorable trends, the overall relative survival of patients with gastric cancer remains at a low level. There were significant differences in the relative survival rates of patients with gastric cancer in terms of age, sex, race, primary site, stage, and socioeconomic status. Notably, the survival rate of patients with distant-stage gastric cancer remains very low (10%). CONCLUSION: We found that the survival rate of patients with gastric cancer showed different degrees of improvement in each subgroup. However, the overall relative survival rate of patients with gastric cancer remains low. Analyzing the changes of patients with gastric cancer in the last 10 years will be helpful in predicting the changing trend of cancer in the future. It also provides a scientific basis for relevant departments to formulate effective tumor prevention and control measures.