Retracción anterosuperior mediante el uso de microimplantes en un paciente clase II esqueletal con protrusión dentoalveolar / Anterosuperior retraction with microimplants in a skeletal class II patient with dentoalveolar protrusion

La clase II esqueletal puede deberse a una mandíbula retruida, un maxilar protruido o una combinación de ambas, dando como resultado un perfil convexo en el paciente. Actualmente existen diferentes alternativas de tratamiento siendo una de ellas la extracción de primeros premolares para mejorar el perfil. El uso de microimplantes es una mecánica de anclaje absoluto que permite la retracción y cierre de espacios de los dientes. Se presenta un caso clínico de una paciente femenina de 19 años, clase II esqueletal por postero-rotación mandibular con biotipo dolicofacial, perfil convexo, sonrisa gingival, clase I molar y canina, overbite de 2 mm y overjet de 2 mm, apiñamiento moderado con incisivos superiores e inferiores protruidos y proinclinados. Como objetivo del tratamiento se planteó mantener la clase I molar y canina, mejorar el perfil facial y liberar el apiñamiento. Mediante el anclaje absoluto con los microimplantes interradiculares, se logró retraer el segmento antero-superior, conservando la clase I molar, clase I canina y reduciendo la proyección labial mejorando el perfil facial. Concluyendo que el uso de microimplantes resulta ser una mecánica de anclaje esqueletal cómoda, práctica y estable para lograr los objetivos del tratamiento sin la necesidad de la cooperación del paciente.

Class II can be due to a retrognathous mandible, a prognathous maxilla, or a combination of both, resulting in a convex profile in the patient. Currently there are different treatment alternatives, one of which is the extraction of first premolars to improve the profile. The use of microimplants is an absolute anchorage mechanics that allows the retraction and closing spaces of the teeth. A clinical case of a 19-year-old female patient, skeletal class II due to mandibular postero-rotation with dolichofacial biotype, convex profile, gummy smile, molar and canine class I, 2 mm overbite and 2 mm overjet, moderate crowding with upper and lower incisors protruding and proclining, as treatment objectives we must maintain molar and canine class I, improve facial profile and releive the crowding. Through absolute anchorage with interradicular microimplants, it was possible to retract the upper anterior segment, preserving molar class I, canine class I and reducing labial projection, improving facial profile. Concluding that the use of microim-plants turns out to be a comfortable, practical and stable skeletal anchorage mechanism to achieve the treatment objectives without the need for the patient's cooperation.

Neuronal identity control at the resolution of a single transcription factor isoform.

The brain exhibits remarkable neuronal diversity which is critical for its functional integrity. From the sheer number of cell types emerging from extensive transcriptional, morphological, and connectome datasets, the question arises of how the brain is capable of generating so many unique identities. 'Terminal selectors' are transcription factors hypothesized to determine the final identity characteristics in post-mitotic cells. Which transcription factors function as terminal selectors and the level of control they exert over different terminal characteristics are not well defined. Here, we establish a novel role for the transcription factor broad as a terminal selector in Drosophila melanogaster. We capitalize on existing large sequencing and connectomics datasets and employ a comprehensive characterization of terminal characteristics including Perturb-seq and whole-cell electrophysiology. We find a single isoform broad-z4 serves as the switch between the identity of two visual projection neurons LPLC1 and LPLC2. Broad-z4 is natively expressed in LPLC1, and is capable of transforming the transcriptome, morphology, and functional connectivity of LPLC2 cells into LPLC1 cells when perturbed. Our comprehensive work establishes a single isoform as the smallest unit underlying an identity switch, which may serve as a conserved strategy replicated across developmental programs.

Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.

Aims: We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity. Methods: The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). Results: The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence. Conclusion: The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.

Modeling population dynamics of invasive pines to optimize their control in native grasslands of Argentina.

The spread of invasive alien species over natural environments has become one of the most serious threats to biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems worldwide. Understanding the population attributes that allow a given species to become invasive is crucial for improving prevention and control interventions. Pampas grasslands are particularly sensitive to the invasion of exotic woody plants. In particular, the Ventania Mountains undergo the advance of alien woody plants; among which the Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) stands out due to the extension of the area it covers and the magnitude of the ecological changes associated to its presence. Using a model that describes the population dynamics of the species in the area, we evaluated the expected behavior of the population under different environmental conditions and different management scenarios. When the effect of stochastic fires was simulated, the growth rate was greater than 1 for all the frequencies considered, peaking under fires every nine years, on average. When evaluating the effect of periodic mechanical control of the adult population, the reduction in growth rate was insufficient, except for cutting intensities that significantly exceeded the current operational capacity of the area. Under prescribed fire scenarios, on the other hand, burning frequencies greater than seven years resulted in population reductions. The results highlight the importance of fire in regulating the population of P. halepensis in the Ventania Mountains, with contrasting effects depending on the frequency with which it occurs, which allows considering it as an effective environmental management option for the control of the species.

Mapping and projections of obesity in the Brazilian adult population assisted in Primary Health Care: impact of the COVID-19 pandemic / Mapeamento e projeções da obesidade na população adulta brasileira atendida na Atenção Primária à Saúde: impacto da pandemia de COVID-19

Objective: To map the temporal evolution of overweight and obesity in Brazilian adults and estimate the prevalence of obesity for 2025 and 2030, evaluating the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Data were collected on the nutritional status of adults from 2008 to 2021 from the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN), from which we calculated the prevalence and average annual rates of the variation of overweight and obesity. The projection of obesity, using linear regression, was analyzed in three scenarios: PP: with data from the pre-pandemic period (2008-2019); outlier: with adjustment of the data trend (2008-2021), including the pandemic period, considering a return of scenario PP for projections from 2022; P: adjustment of pandemic data (2019-2021) to estimate the projection. Result: In the period 2008­2021, we observed an average annual rate of overweight increase of 0.48 %/year. The prevalence of obesity more than doubled during this period, from 14.5% in 2008 to 32.9% in 2021 (i.e., an increase of 1.42). In the outlier scenario, the prevalence projections for obesity are 38.8% and 45.5% for 2015 and 2030, respectively. In the PP scenario (without the pandemic), the expected prevalence for the same period would be approximately 36.8% and 43.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Obesity and overweight follow an increasing trend. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the increase in the prevalence of obesity in Brazil and impacted its projections for the coming years

Objetivo: Mapear a evolução temporal de sobrepeso e obesidade de adultos brasileiros e estimar as prevalências de obesidade para 2025 e 2030, avaliando o potencial impacto da pandemia de COVID-19. Método: Foram coletados dados do estado nutricional de adultos de 2008 a 2021 do Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional (SISVAN), a partir dos quais foram calculadas as prevalências e taxas médias anuais da variação de sobrepeso e obesidade. A projeção da obesidade, utilizando regressão linear, foi analisada em três cenários: PP: com dados do período pré-pandemia (2008-2019); outlier: com ajuste da endência de dados (2008-2021), incluindo o período da pandemia, considerando um retorno do cenário PP para projeções a partir de 2022; P: ajuste dos dados da pandemia (2019-2021) para estimativa da projeção. Resultado: No período de 2008 e 2021, observamos uma taxa anual média de aumento de sobrepeso de 0,48 %/ano. A prevalência de obesidade mais que dobrou nesse período, passando de 14,5% em 2008 para 32,9% em 2021 (i.e., um aumento de 1,42). No cenário outlier, as projeções das prevalências de obesidade são de 38,8% e 45,5% para os anos de 2015 e 2030, respectivamente. No cenário PP (sem a pandemia), a prevalência esperada para o mesmo período estaria em torno de 36,8% e 43,4%, respectivamente. Conclusão: A obesidade e o sobrepeso seguem uma tendência de aumento crescente. A pandemia de COVID-19 acelerou o aumento da prevalência de obesidade no Brasil e impactou a sua projeção para os próximos anos.

Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient.

Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have studied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (Capsicum annuum) in its center of origin (domestication). C. annuum is a major crop species globally whose center of domestication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a constant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domestication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes.

Effect of the Surface Chemical Composition on the Corrosion Resistance in the Mixture of FeCrMoNbB (140MXC) and FeCMnSi (530AS) Coatings Produced with the Electric Wire Arc Spraying Technique: Part I.

In this study, FeCrMoNbB (140MXC) and FeCMnSi (530AS) coatings were simultaneously projected on the substrate AISI-SAE 4340 using the electric wire arc spraying technique. The projection parameters, such as current (I), voltage (V), primary air pressure (1st), and secondary air pressure (2nd), were determined using the experimental model Taguchi L9 (34-2). Its main purpose is to produce dissimilar coatings and to evaluate the effect of the surface chemical composition on the corrosion resistance in the mixture of 140MXC-530AS as commercial coatings. Three phases were considered to obtain and characterize the coatings: Phase 1: Preparation of materials and projection equipment; Phase 2: Coatings production; and Phase 3: Coatings characterization. The characterization of the dissimilar coatings was carried out using the techniques of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDX), Auger Electronic Spectroscopy (AES), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The results of this characterization corroborated the electrochemical behavior of the coatings. The presence of B was determined with the XPS characterization technique in the mixtures of the coatings in the form of Iron Boride. Moreover, the XRD technique showed Nb in the form of FeNb as a precursor compound for the 140MXC wire powder. The most relevant contributions are the pressures, provided that the quantity of oxides in the coatings decreases with respect to the reaction time between the molten particles and the atmosphere of the projection hood; moreover, for the corrosion potential, the operating voltage of the equipment does not exert any effect since these tend to remain constant.

Retinorecipient areas in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus): An image-forming and non-image forming circuitry.

The mammalian retina captures a multitude of diverse features from the external environment and conveys them via the optic nerve to a myriad of retinorecipient nuclei. Understanding how retinal signals act in distinct brain functions is one of the most central and established goals of neuroscience. Using the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus), a monkey from Northeastern Brazil, as an animal model for parsing how retinal innervation works in the brain, started decades ago due to their marmoset's small bodies, rapid reproduction rate, and brain features. In the course of that research, a large amount of new and sophisticated neuroanatomical techniques was developed and employed to explain retinal connectivity. As a consequence, image and non-image-forming regions, functions, and pathways, as well as retinal cell types were described. Image-forming circuits give rise directly to vision, while the non-image-forming territories support circadian physiological processes, although part of their functional significance is uncertain. Here, we reviewed the current state of knowledge concerning retinal circuitry in marmosets from neuroanatomical investigations. We have also highlighted the aspects of marmoset retinal circuitry that remain obscure, in addition, to identify what further research is needed to better understand the connections and functions of retinorecipient structures.

Infrared Laser Effects on Cell Projection Depend on Irradiation Intermittence and Cell Activity.

Highly focused near-infrared (NIR) lasers have been used to induce fibroblast and neuron protrusions in a technique called optical guidance. However, little is known about the biochemical and biophysical effects that the laser provokes in the cell and optimal protocols of stimulation have not yet been established. Using intermittent NIR laser radiation and multivariate time series representations of cell leading edge movement, we analyzed the direction and velocity of cell protrusions. We found that the orientation and advance of PC12 neuron phenotype cells and 3T3 fibroblasts protrusions remain after the laser is turned off, but the observed increase in velocity stops when radiation ceases. For an increase in the speed and distance of cell protrusions by NIR laser irradiation, the cell leading edge needs to be advancing prior to the stimulation, and NIR irradiation does not enable the cell to switch between retracting and advancing states. Using timelapse imaging of actin-GFP, we observed that NIR irradiation induces a faster recruitment of actin, promoting filament formation at the induced cell protrusions. These results provide fresh evidence to understand the phenomenon of the optical guidance of cell protrusions.

Proyección de brecha de especialistas en nefrología en Uruguay 2020-2050: aplicación de un modelo de dinámica de sistemas

Objetivo Estimar el equilibrio/desequilibrio entre la oferta y la necesidad de nefrólogos en Uruguay para el año 2020 así como la tendencia hacia el 2050. Métodos Se desarrolló un modelo de simulación, aplicando la metodología de dinámica de sistemas con dos componentes: el de oferta y el de necesidad. Se definió 2020 como el año base y un horizonte de proyección hasta 2050. Se comparó la oferta y la necesidad en el periodo de proyección para establecer la brecha tanto en términos absolutos como relativos. Resultados La proyección de brecha para todos los escenarios considerados es de superávit en la mayor parte del periodo analizado. Conclusiones El trabajo aporta insumos respecto de aquellos parámetros sobre los que se puede incidir y que afectan a la oferta de especialistas. El valor de las proyecciones radica en su utilidad para identificar la situación actual y las tendencias futuras a las que deben responder los responsables de la formulación de políticas.

Objective To estimate the balance/imbalance between supply and demand of nefrologists in Uruguay for the year 2020, adding its tendency towards 2050. Methods A simulation model was developed, applying a two dynamic systems methodology with two components: that of supply and that of need. The base year was defined as 2020 with a projection horizon up to 2050. Supply and need were compared for the projection period to establish the gap, both in relative and absolute terms. Results The projection gap for all considered scenarios is that of surplus for most of the analyzed period. Conclusions This work offers input with respect of impactful parameters that affect healthcare specialists supply. The key value of the projections lies in its utility to identify the current situation and its future tendencies, to which those responsible for policy making have to respond.

A lettuce moisture detection method based on terahertz time-domain spectroscopy / Um método de detecção de umidade de alface baseado em THz-TDS

For non-destructive detection of water stress in lettuce, terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) was used to quantitatively analyze water content in lettuce. Four gradient lettuce water contents were used . Spectral data of lettuce were collected by a THz-TDS system, and denoised using the S-G derivative, Savitzky-Golay (S-G) smoothing and normalization filtering. The fitting effect of the pretreatment method was better than that of regression fitting, and the S-G derivative fitting effect was obtained. Then a calibration set and a verification set were divided by the Kennan-Stone algorithm, sample set partitioning based on joint X-Y distance (SPXY) algorithm, and the random sampling (RS) algorithm, and the parameters of RS were optimized by regression fitting. The stability competitive adaptive reweighted sampling, iteratively retained information variables and interval combination optimization were used to select characteristic wavelengths, and then continuous projection was used on basis of the three algorithms above. After the successive projection algorithm was re-screened, partial least squares regression was used into modeling. The regression coefficients R²c and RMSEC reach 0.8962 and 412.5% respectively, and R²p and RMSEP of the verification set are 0.8757 and 528.9% respectively.

Para a detecção não destrutiva de estresse hídrico da alface, espectroscopia no domínio do tempo em terahertz (THz-TDS) foi usada para analisar quantitativamente o conteúdo de água na alface. Quatro gradientes de conteúdo de água de alface foram usados. Os dados espectrais da alface foram coletados por um sistema THz-TDS e denoised usando o derivado S-G, Savitzky-Golay (S-G) suavização e filtragem de normalização. O efeito de ajuste do método de pré-tratamento foi melhor do que o do ajuste de regressão, e o efeito de ajuste da derivada S-G foi obtido. Em seguida, um conjunto de calibração e um conjunto de verificação foram divididos pelo algoritmo Kennan-Stone, particionamento do conjunto de amostra com base no algoritmo de distância X-Y conjunta (SPXY) e o algoritmo de amostragem aleatória (RS), e os parâmetros de RS foram otimizados por ajuste de regressão. A amostragem adaptativa de estabilidade competitiva reponderada, variáveis de informação retidas iterativamente e otimização de combinação de intervalo foram usadas para selecionar comprimentos de onda característicos e, em seguida, a projeção contínua foi usada com base nos três algoritmos acima. Depois que o algoritmo de projeção sucessivo foi reprojetado, a regressão de mínimos quadrados parcial foi usada na modelagem. Os coeficientes de regressão R2 e erro quadrático médio (RMSEP) atingem 0,8962 e 412,50%, respectivamente, e R2 e RMSEP do conjunto de verificação são 0,8757 e 528,93%, respectivamente.

Modelo dinámico para proyectar la necesidad de recursos humanos en salud: anestesistas en Uruguay / Anesthesiologists in Uruguay: dynamic model to project the need of human resources in healthcare

Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo dinámico para simular la oferta de médicos especialistas y estimar la brecha especto a la demanda/necesidad en anestesiología en el sistema de salud del Uruguay. Métodos Se desarrolló un modelo de simulación dinámico determinístico implementado en el programa libre R. Se analizaron las proyecciones en el período 2011-2050 y se estimó la brecha a partir de la situación de equilibrio o desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda/necesidad. Se evaluó la calidad del modelo comparando los valores simulados con los datos históricos, con indicadores de bondad de ajuste, como la raíz del error cuadrático medio relativo (rRMSE). Se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad con respecto a los cupos de ingreso a la especialidady la tasa de crecimiento de la necesidad de especialistas. Resultados Se proyectó la oferta y demanda de anestesistas para el período considerado. Se obtuvo un rRMSE menor a 0,1, lo que sugiere que el modelo propuesto reproduce adecuadamente la dinámica de la oferta real. Para el período proyectado la situación a mediano y largo plazo es de equilibrio. Conclusión El modelo simulado presenta buen ajuste, por lo que la proyección de la oferta de Recursos Humanos (RR. HH.) representa de forma precisa la disponibilidad futura de la fuerza de trabajo. Además, el modelo representa un insumo de interés para la gestión informada sobre la necesidad de recursos humanos y las políticas de salud, dado que permite evaluar las proyecciones bajo diferentes escenarios.

Objectives The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic model to simulate the supply of specialized physicians in Anesthesiology and estimate the gap with its demand, within Uruguay healthcare system. Methods A deterministic dynamic simulation model was developed and implemented using R software. Projections for the 2011-2050 period were analyzed, and the gap was estimated based on the equilibrium state of supply and demand. The quality of the model was evaluated comparing the simulated data with historical empirical data using goodness of fit indicators, such as the relative root mean square error (rRMSE). Results The demand and supply of anesthesiologists was projected for the period under analysis. A rRMSE<0,1 was obtained, which suggests the proposed model adequately reproduces the real offer dynamics. Based on the defined gap criteria, in the medium and long-term the situation is in equilibrium state. Conclusions The simulated model presents a good fit so that the human resources (HR) supply projection represents in a precise way the future availability of the work-force. Given that the model allows to evaluate the projection dynamics under different management scenarios, the model also represents an input of the utmost interest for management knowledgeable about human resource demands and healthcare policy.

Spiral SAR Imaging with Fast Factorized Back-Projection: A Phase Error Analysis.

This paper presents a fast factorized back-projection (FFBP) algorithm that can satisfactorily process real P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected from a spiral flight pattern performed by a drone-borne SAR system. Choosing the best setup when processing SAR data with an FFBP algorithm is not so straightforward, so predicting how this choice will affect the quality of the output image is valuable information. This paper provides a statistical phase error analysis to validate the hypothesis that the phase error standard deviation can be predicted by geometric parameters specified at the start of processing. In particular, for a phase error standard deviation of ~12°, the FFBP is up to 21 times faster than the direct back-projection algorithm for 3D images and up to 13 times faster for 2D images.

Comparison of radiographic and tomographic evaluations for measurement of the Canal Flare Index in dogs / [Comparação entre avaliação radiográfica e tomográfica para mensuração do Canal Flare Index em cães]

The outcome of total hip arthroplasty (THA) in dogs is directly related to surgical planning. Templating of radiographs prior to THA should help the surgeon anticipate prosthesis size and femoral shape allowing canal fill of the proximal metaphysis by the implant ensuring primary stable fixation. The canal flare index (CFI) obtained from radiograph has been used as a measure of risk of complications for the technique in human beings and dogs. However, standard radiographs only provide limited data for the selection of cementless prostheses and the assessment of their fit within the femoral canal, due to factors like radiographic magnification and femoral rotation. Therefore, three-dimensional evaluation based on computed tomography (CT) may be a better tool for CFI measurement. The aim of this study was to compare anatomical measurement with CFI values obtained from craniocaudal radiography and CT. Craniocaudal radiographs using a horizontal radiographic beam (CR), CT, and anatomical macroscopic measurements (A) were obtained from 45 femurs from 23 canine cadavers. The differences between the values of CFI obtained from radiograph (CFI-R), computed tomography on transverse (CFI- TT) and longitudinal axis (CFI-TL) compared to the CFI obtained from macroscopic measurements - gold standard - (CFI-A), and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) between the values, were evaluated by the Bland-Altman method. Dimensions obtained from CT techniques had a greatest mean difference from anatomical and CFI values were also different (P=0.032). Under the experimental conditions, the craniocaudal radiograph, provided the most accurate measurement of the CFI (mean difference: 0.087 ± 0.42).(AU)

O resultado da artroplastia total do quadril (ATQ) em cães está diretamente relacionado ao planejamento cirúrgico. O templating radiográfico pré-operatório da ATQ deve ajudar o cirurgião a prever o tamanho da prótese e o formato do fêmur, o que permitirá um preenchimento ideal da metáfise proximal pelo implante, garantindo, assim, fixação primária estável. O índice de alargamento do canal (Canal Flare Index - CFI) obtido em radiografias tem sido utilizado como fator de risco de complicações para a técnica em humanos e cães. No entanto, as radiografias podem fornecer apenas dados limitados para a seleção de próteses não cimentadas e a avaliação do seu encaixe no canal femoral, devido a fatores como ampliação radiográfica e rotação femoral. Portanto, a avaliação tridimensional baseada na tomografia computadorizada (TC) pode ser uma ferramenta vantajosa para a mensuração do CFI. O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar a medida anatômica com os valores de CFI obtidos na radiografia craniocaudal e na TC. Radiografias craniocaudais utilizando feixe radiográfico horizontal (CR), tomografia computadorizada e medidas macroscópicas anatômicas (A) foram obtidas de 45 fêmures de 23 cadáveres caninos. As diferenças entre os valores de CFI obtidos na radiografia (CFI-R), na tomografia computadorizada no eixo transversal (CFI-TT) e no eixo longitudinal (CFI-TL), em comparação com os valores de CFI obtidos nas medições macroscópicas - padrão-ouro - (CFI-A) e os limites de concordância de 95% (LOA) entre os valores, foram avaliadas pelo método de Bland-Altman. As dimensões obtidas pelas técnicas de TC apresentaram maior diferença média dos valores anatômicos, e as do CFI também foram diferentes (P=0,032). Nas condições experimentais, a radiografia craniocaudal forneceu a medida mais precisa do CFI (diferença média: 0,087 ± 0,42) para representar o padrão-ouro deste estudo.(AU)

The Quixotic Task of Forecasting Peaks of COVID-19: Rather Focus on Forward and Backward Projections.

Over the last months, mathematical models have been extensively used to help control the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models have performed poorly in forecasting the pandemic peaks. We investigate this common pitfall by forecasting four countries' pandemic peak: Austria, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. Far from the peaks, our models can forecast the pandemic dynamics 20 days ahead. Nevertheless, when calibrating our models close to the day of the pandemic peak, all forecasts fail. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis revealed the main obstacle: the misestimation of the transmission rate. Inverse uncertainty quantification has shown that significant changes in transmission rate commonly precede a peak. These changes are a key factor in forecasting the pandemic peak. Long forecasts of the pandemic peak are therefore undermined by the lack of models that can forecast changes in the transmission rate, i.e., how a particular society behaves, changes of mitigation policies, or how society chooses to respond to them. In addition, our studies revealed that even short forecasts of the pandemic peak are challenging. Backward projections have shown us that the correct estimation of any temporal change in the transmission rate is only possible many days ahead. Our results suggest that the distance between a change in the transmission rate and its correct identification in the curve of active infected cases can be as long as 15 days. This is intrinsic to the phenomenon and how it affects epidemic data: a new case is usually only reported after an incubation period followed by a delay associated with the test. In summary, our results suggest the phenomenon itself challenges the task of forecasting the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when only epidemic data is available. Nevertheless, we show that exciting results can be obtained when using the same models to project different scenarios of reduced transmission rates. Therefore, our results highlight that mathematical modeling can help control COVID-19 pandemic by backward projections that characterize the phenomena' essential features and forward projections when different scenarios and strategies can be tested and used for decision-making.

Financing needs, spending projection, and the future of health in Brazil.

In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health-financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public-private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low- and middle-income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.

How much do human and livestock actually contribute to steroids emission and surface water pollution from past to the future: A global research.

A comprehensive global inventory of past, present, and future steroid emissions was firstly developed based on the global 5' × 5' grids relevant data available. From 1970 to 2070, the growth rate of the annual global steroid emission was relatively stable around 10%. At present (in 2015), the global steroid emissions was 18,270 t, with 17% contributed by humans. Almost one-third of total animal emissions have been occurring in India and Brazil. India also had the highest value of human steroid emissions. Regions with highest steroid emissions were concentrated between 10° ~ 35° N and 70° ~ 90° E. The increase of sewage treatment rates can effectively reduce the total quantity of steroids entering the environment, especially for some developing countries. But the "technology bonus" from sewage treatment process will be exhausted until to 2030. Meanwhile, global surface water pollution was predicted based on steroid emissions into water compartment and on the digital river network with annual river discharge. The modelling results show that steroids are widely distributed across the globe, with concentrations mostly below 100 ng/L. However, if no proper treatment measures for animal excretions, in another 100 years, the range of the surface water contaminated by steroids will increase by 1.2 times. The Nile River resulted as the most polluted among the eight world's longest and famous rivers during the whole period investigated. Various measured concentrations worldwide validated our modelling result. The global steroid emission inventory and surface water pollution from past to the future will stand as an important data and knowledge base for the management of pollution from different types of steroids at global and regional level.

Caracterización de la Política de Proyección Social de la Universidad Católica de Córdoba (UCC) para evaluar el impacto formativo en los graduados / Characterization of the Social Projection Policy of the Catholic University of Córdoba (UCC) to evaluate the educational impact

La Universidad Católica de Córdoba (Argentina) ha implementado una política de proyección social desde el año 2011, la cual forma parte de un objetivo central a nivel institucional: concebir las funciones sustantivas y centrales de la universidad desde la gestión socialmente responsable. La búsqueda de este objetivo tiene su sustento en el paradigma educativo ignaciano, el cual busca incidir desde allí en la formación de los futuros graduados. Frente a ello, se plantea una investigación que busca indagar sobre el impacto que logra en la formación de los graduados la política de proyección social bajo el enfoque de Responsabilidad Social Universitaria adoptado por la Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Una etapa esencial de esta investigación es lograr caracterizar la política mencionada a los fines de correlacionar los procesos educativos de acuerdo al paradigma educativo adoptado en la universidad con respecto a la formación y el perfil de sus graduados. Esta caracterización se realizó a partir de un enfoque analítico interpretativo, retrospectivo y transversal, desarrollado a través de un diseño metodológico cualitativo, basado en análisis documental y entrevistas en profundidad con los referentes institucionales. Los resultados de caracterización de la PPS permitieron considerar dos categorías de análisis: por un lado, el vínculo de la Universidad con la comunidad de acuerdo a propiedades prestablecidas, y por otro, el impacto de la política sobre los futuros graduados de acuerdo al paradigma educativo adoptado. Ante la carencia de herramientas adecuadas de evaluación de impacto formativo en los perfiles de los egresados universitarios, esta investigación pretende contribuir con avances instrumentales útiles en la medición de la efectividad de la política de proyección social de la Universidad Católica de Córdoba, los cuales poseen la potencialidad de hacerse extensivos para su empleo en otras universidades confiadas a la Compañía de Jesús, y de la región

The Catholic University of Córdoba (Argentina) has implemented a social projection policy since 2011, which is part of a central objective at the institutional level: to conceive the substantive and central functions of the university from socially responsible management. The search for this objective is supported by the Ignatian educational paradigm, which seeks to influence the training of future graduates from there. Faced with this, an investigation is proposed that seeks to investigate the impact that the policy of social projection, under the approach of University Social Responsibility, adopted by the Catholic University of Córdoba achieves in the training of graduates. An essential stage of this research is to characterise the aforementioned policy in order to correlate the educational processes according to the educational paradigm adopted at the university with respect to the training and profile of its graduates. This characterisation was carried out from an interpretive, retrospective and cross-sectional analytical approach, developed through a qualitative methodological design, based on documentary analysis and indepth interviews with institutional referents. The results of the characterisation of the PPS allowed considering two categories of analysis: on the one hand, the link between the University and the community according to pre-established properties, and on the other, the impact of the policy on future graduates according to the adopted educational paradigm. Given the lack of adequate tools for evaluating the training impact on the profiles of university graduates, this research aims to contribute with useful instrumental advances in measuring the effectiveness of the social projection policy of the Catholic University of Córdoba, which have the potential to be extended for employment in other universities entrusted to the Society of Jesus, and in the region.

Como que as mudanças nas taxas de mortalidade e expectativa de vida afetam a projeção da população idosa no estado de São Paulo? / How do changes in mortality and life expectancy affect the elderly population projection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil?

Resumo Introdução O Brasil experimentou, ao longo do século XX, uma profunda mudança em relação à expectativa de vida ao nascer. Nesse processo, foi importante não somente a queda do nível da mortalidade para o grande aumento da expectativa de vida, mas também a mudança no padrão da mortalidade. Recentemente, vêm sendo discutidas mudanças no padrão de mortalidade nas idades mais avançadas, bem como o impacto no envelhecimento populacional. Entretanto, no Brasil, as discussões sobre a longevidade e o comportamento da mortalidade nas idades avançadas ainda são incipientes. Especialistas sugerem que projeções de mortalidade incorporem novas tendências de desaceleração da mortalidade em idades avançadas e explorem abordagens de coortes para suas formulações de tendências. Objetivo Estudar o efeito causado pelas mudanças no comportamento da mortalidade e da expectativa de vida na predição do tamanho da população idosa do estado de São Paulo. Método Método estendido de coortes componentes. Resultados Alterações no nível e no padrão da mortalidade têm um efeito maior na predição da população de 80 anos ou mais em comparação com a população de 60 anos ou mais. Ademais, considerar o gap da expectativa de vida entre os sexos é relevante para determinar o número futuro de idosos. Conclusão Ao utilizar países em diferentes estágios da transição epidemiológica como cenário futuro do padrão e do nível da mortalidade de São Paulo, o método estendido de coortes componentes se torna uma possibilidade metodológica interessante para avaliar o impacto dessas modificações para a projeção da população idosa, podendo ser uma ferramenta para a avaliação de políticas públicas.

Abstract Background Brazil experienced a significant change in life expectancy at birth in the 20th century. In this process, it is important to observe not only the decrease in mortality level and the increase in life expectancy, but also the change in mortality pattern, that is, how mortality occurred and which ages were most impacted. Recently, these changes in the mortality pattern at more advanced ages and their impact on population aging have been discussed more intensively. However, in Brazil, discussions about human longevity and mortality behavior in advanced ages are still incipient. Experts suggest that future studies and mortality projections incorporate new trends in decelerating mortality at advanced ages and explore cohort approaches in their trend formulations. Objective To study the effect of changes in mortality and life expectancy on predicting the elderly population size in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Method Extended cohort-component study. Results Changes in the level and pattern of mortality have a greater effect on the population aged ≥80 compared with that on the population aged ≥60. In addition, considering the life expectancy gap between sexes is relevant to determine the future number of older people. Conclusion The extended cohort component method is an interesting methodological approach to assess the impact of mortality changes on the elderly population projection by using different stages of the epidemiological transition as a future scenario