Bystander defibrillation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Ireland.

Aims: To describe and explore predictors of bystander defibrillation in Ireland during the period 2012 to 2020. To examine the relationship between bystander defibrillation and health system developments. Methods: National level Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) registry data were interrogated, focusing on patients who had defibrillation performed. Bystander defibrillation (as compared to EMS initiated defibrillation) was the key outcome of concern. Logistic regression models were built and refined by fitting predictors, performing stepwise variable selection and by adding pairwise interactions that improved fit. Results: The data included 5,751 cases of OHCA where defibrillation was performed. Increasing year over time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.13, 1.21) was associated with increased adjusted odds of bystander defibrillation. Non-cardiac aetiology was associated with reduced adjusted odds of bystander defibrillation (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.21, 0.42), as were increasing age in years (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.987, 0.996) and night-time occurrence of OHCA (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.53, 0.83). Six further variables in the final model (sex, call response interval, incident location (home or other), who witnessed collapse (bystander or not witnessed), urban or rural location, and the COVID period) were involved in significant interactions. Bystander defibrillation was in general less likely in urban settings and at home locations. Whilst women were less likely to receive bystander defibrillation overall, in witnessed OHCAs, occurring outside the home, in urban areas and outside of the COVID-19 period women were more likely, to receive bystander defibrillation. Conclusions: Defibrillation by bystanders has increased incrementally over time in Ireland. Interventions to address sex and age-based disparities, alongside interventions to increase bystander defibrillation at night, in urban settings and at home locations are required.

A registry-based comparative analysis of antibiotic usage reporting for adult cattle on Danish dairy farms.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a significant global health concern, necessitating the monitoring of antimicrobial usage (AMU). However, there is a lack of consensus on the standardized collection and reporting of AMU data in the veterinary field. In Denmark, the Danish Cattle Database (DCDB) contains treatment information on animal level, which allows counting of number of treatments carried out, used daily doses (UDD). The Danish VetStat database (VetStat) contains information on veterinary medicinal prescriptions at farm level and uses fixed standard doses of each product to calculate number of daily treatments, animal daily doses (ADD). This study aimed to compare two different numerators, UDD and ADD, used to describe AMU on Danish cattle farms, and estimate their correlation. RESULTS: Routinely collected registry data from conventional dairy farms in Denmark for 2019 were used, including a total of 2,197 conventional dairy farms. The data from VetStat and the DCDB were aggregated and analysed, and treatment frequencies (TF) were calculated for both UDD and ADD, adjusting for farm size. Spearman correlation analysis and Bland-Altman plots were employed to assess the relationship and agreement between TF for ADD and UDD, respectively. The results showed a high correlation between TF for ADD and UDD for most prescription groups, i.e., groups used to categorise antibiotics based on target organs. An exception is found for the Udder prescription group, where a systematic underreporting of UDD compared to ADD was observed. This discrepancy may be due to combination treatments, and potential missing or grouped registrations in the DCDB. CONCLUSIONS: Our UDD and ADD comparison yields valuable insights on farm-level AMU. We observe strong correlations between UDD and ADD, except for udder treatments, where some farms report only 1/3 UDD compared to ADD, indicating potential underreporting. Further investigations are needed to understand the factors contributing to these patterns and to ensure the accuracy and completeness of recorded information. Standardizing AMU data collection and reporting remains crucial to tackle the global challenge of AMR effectively.

Using the GAP score as a complement to the NISS score in identifying severely injured patients- A registry-based cohort study of adult trauma patients in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: New Injury Severity Score (NISS) and Glasgow Coma Scale, Age and Pressure (GAP) scoring systems have cutoffs to define severe injury and identify high-risk patients. This is important in trauma quality monitoring and improvement. The overall aim was to explore if GAP scoring system can be a complement or an alternative to the traditional NISS scoring system. METHODS: Adults exposed to trauma between 2017 and 2021 were included in the study, using data from The Swedish Trauma Registry. The performance of NISS and GAP scores in predicting mortality, and ICU admissions were assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) in all patients and in subgroups (blunt, penetrating trauma and older (≥65 years) trauma patients). Patients were classified as severely injured by NISS >15 as Severely Injured NISS (SIN) or with a high-risk for mortality, by GAP 3-18 as High Risk GAP (HRG). Undertriage was calculated based on the cutoffs HRG and SIN. RESULTS: Overall, 37,017 patients were included. The AUROC (95 % CI) for mortality using NISS was 0.84 (0.83-0.85) and for GAP 0.92 (0.91-0.93) (p-value <0.001), the AUROC (95 % CI) for ICU-admissions was 0.82 (0.82-0.83) using NISS and for GAP 0.70 (0.70-0.71) p-value <0.001, in the overall cohort. In older patients the AUROC (95 % CI) for mortality was 0.76 (0.75-0.78) using NISS and 0.79 (0.78-0.81) using GAP, p-value <0.001. Overall, 8,572 (23.2 %) and 2,908 (7.9 %) were classified as SIN and HRG, respectively, with mortality rates of 13.7 % and 34.3 %. In the HRG group low-energy falls dominated and in the SIN group most patients were exposed to MVCs. In the SIN and HRG groups the rate of Emergency Trauma Interventions according to Utstein guidelines (ETIU) and ICU admission was 14.0 vs 9.5 % and 47.0 vs 62.5 % respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the GAP score and its cutoff 3-18 can be used to define severe trauma as complement to NISS >15 and can be a valuable tool in trauma quality monitoring and improvement. However, both scoring systems were less accurate in predicting mortality for the older trauma patients and should be explored further.

Informed consent for national registration of COVID-19 vaccination caused information bias of vaccine effectiveness estimates mostly in older adults: a bias correction study.

OBJECTIVES: Registration in the Dutch national COVID-19 vaccination register requires consent from the vaccinee. This causes misclassification of nonconsenting vaccinated persons as being unvaccinated. We quantified and corrected the resulting information bias in vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: National data were used for the period dominated by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (July 11 to November 15, 2021). VE ((1-relative risk)∗100%) against COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission was estimated for individuals 12 to 49, 50 to 69, and ≥70 years of age using negative binomial regression. Anonymous data on vaccinations administered by the Municipal Health Services were used to determine informed consent percentages and estimate corrected VEs by iteratively imputing corrected vaccination status. Absolute bias was calculated as the absolute change in VE; relative bias as uncorrected/corrected relative risk. RESULTS: A total of 8804 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 1692 COVID-19 ICU admissions were observed. The bias was largest in the 70+ age group where the nonconsent proportion was 7.0% and observed vaccination coverage was 87%: VE of primary vaccination against hospitalization changed from 75.5% (95% CI 73.5-77.4) before to 85.9% (95% CI 84.7-87.1) after correction (absolute bias -10.4 percentage point, relative bias 1.74). VE against ICU admission in this group was 88.7% (95% CI 86.2-90.8) before and 93.7% (95% CI 92.2-94.9) after correction (absolute bias -5.0 percentage point, relative bias 1.79). CONCLUSION: VE estimates can be substantially biased with modest nonconsent percentages for vaccination data registration. Data on covariate-specific nonconsent percentages should be available to correct this bias.

Model-based disease mapping using primary care registry data.

BACKGROUND: Spatial modeling of disease risk using primary care registry data is promising for public health surveillance. However, it remains unclear to which extent challenges such as spatially disproportionate sampling and practice-specific reporting variation affect statistical inference. METHODS: Using lower respiratory tract infection data from the INTEGO registry, modeled with a logistic model incorporating patient characteristics, a spatially structured random effect at municipality level, and an unstructured random effect at practice level, we conducted a case and simulation study to assess the impact of these challenges on spatial trend estimation. RESULTS: Even with spatial imbalance and practice-specific reporting variation, the model performed well. Performance improved with increasing spatial sample balance and decreasing practice-specific variation. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that, with correction for reporting efforts, primary care registries are valuable for spatial trend estimation. The diversity of patient locations within practice populations plays an important role.

Framework for personalized prediction of treatment response in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a replication study in independent data.

BACKGROUND: Individualizing and optimizing treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients is a challenging problem, which would benefit from a clinically valid decision support. Stühler et al. presented black box models for this aim which were developed and internally evaluated in a German registry but lacked external validation. METHODS: In patients from the French OFSEP registry, we independently built and validated models predicting being free of relapse and free of confirmed disability progression (CDP), following the methodological roadmap and predictors reported by Stühler. Hierarchical Bayesian models were fit to predict the outcomes under 6 disease-modifying treatments given the individual disease course up to the moment of treatment change. Data was temporally split on 2017, and models were developed in patients treated earlier (n = 5517). Calibration curves, discrimination, mean squared error (MSE) and relative percentage of root MSE (RMSE%) were assessed by external validation of models in more-recent patients (n = 3768). Non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLMs were also applied and their outcomes were compared to these of the Bayesian ones. For both, we modelled the number of on-therapy relapses with a negative binomial distribution, and CDP occurrence with a binomial distribution. RESULTS: The performance of our temporally-validated relapse model (MSE: 0.326, C-Index: 0.639) is potentially superior to that of Stühler's (MSE: 0.784, C-index: 0.608). Calibration plots revealed miscalibration. Our CDP model (MSE: 0.072, C-Index: 0.777) was also better than its counterpart (MSE: 0.131, C-index: 0.554). Results from non-Bayesian fixed-effects GLM models were similar to the Bayesian ones. CONCLUSIONS: The relapse and CDP models rebuilt and externally validated in independent data could compare and strengthen the credibility of the Stühler models. Their model-building strategy was replicable.

Communicating prostate cancer outcomes data to consumers A brief communication.

OBJECTIVE: To translate and communicate outcomes data for prostate cancer from a clinical registry data into a consumer-friendly resource. METHODS: First, we analyzed real-world data from the South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative (SA-PCCOC) registry for men diagnosed from 2008 to 2018 including clinical and functional outcomes following surgery, external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, hormone therapy, active surveillance and watchful waiting. These outcomes included overall survival, cancer specific survival, biochemical recurrence, decline in functional outcomes, and transition to active treatment following active surveillance. Second, we translated outcomes into a summary text and pictographic format and present in one document that consumers found easy to understand and interpret. This "Prostate Cancer Outcomes Report Card" was developed in consultation with a consumer advisory group and further improved through exploratory interviews with people affected by prostate cancer, an online survey among the general public, and clinician feedback. RESULTS: The 5-year prostate cancer-specific survival rate was 97%. There is a reasonably high chance of cancer returning within 5 years (17% after surgery and 14% after radiotherapy) while 1 in 3 men on active surveillance transitioned to other treatments within 5 years. Sexual function was negatively affected following all treatment types. Men with higher risk disease had a worse prognosis, a higher chance of recurrence and greater decline in physical function. Consumers required trustworthy, comprehensive, simple and up-to-date information collated in one place, and valued having access to this resource. Data on high survival rates were considered reassuring. There were high levels of unmet psychosocial and supportive care needs, especially in relation to mental health and sexual function. The report card was well received by patients and health care workers. CONCLUSIONS: This relatively simple and easily understandable consumer-oriented outcome report serves to better inform men with prostate cancer and facilitate patient-provider communication and shared decision-making.

Disability level and use of long-term care services in Norway: a nation-wide registry study.

AIMS: In Norway, disability level is an important criterion when deciding the type and level of long-term care services. Each care recipient can be scored on 20 different disability level measures. Our aims were to investigate completeness in disability level information in the Norwegian Registry of Primary Health Care (NRPHC), to group disability level measures into meaningful groups, and to study the relationship between grouped disability scores and the type of services received. METHODS: We retrieved information on type of care and disability level from the NRPHC on individuals who received long-term care services in 2022. Type of care was divided into hierarchical and mutually exclusive groups, with long-term institutional care as the most complex service group. We used principal components analysis to summarise and visualise the information in the 20 different disability level measures, and to create grouped scores. RESULTS: A total of 386,697 persons aged 0-104 years were registered as recipients of long-term care services in Norway on 31 December 2022. Information on disability measures were of high completeness (72.4 % of the population were registered with all 20 measures) but was lower for younger age groups in which the number of recipients was lower. Principal components analyses identified two groups of measures, which we termed physical and cognitive functioning. Physical and cognitive functioning were poorest for individuals receiving the most complex and extensive services. CONCLUSIONS: NRPHC disability data are reasonably complete, the 20 measures readily fall into two distinct categories, and seem to reflect real life differences in disability.

Early onset metastatic colorectal cancer in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates have been increasing among young patients (YP), for uncertain reasons. It is unclear whether YP have a distinct tumor biology or merit a different treatment approach to older patients (OP). METHODS: We reviewed prospectively collected data from consecutive patients with metastatic CRC (MCRC) enrolled in the multi-site Treatment of Recurrent and Advanced Colorectal Cancer (TRACC) Australian registry. Clinicopathological features, treatment and survival outcomes were compared between YP (<50 years) and OP (≥50 years). RESULTS: Of 3692 patients diagnosed August 2009 - March 2023, 14 % (513) were YP. YP were more likely than OP to be female (52% vs. 40 %, P < 0.0001), have ECOG performance status 0-1 (94% vs. 81 %, P < 0.0001), to have a left-sided primary (72% vs. 63 %, P = 0.0008) and to have fewer comorbidities (90% vs. 60 % Charleston score 0, P < 0.0001). There were no differences in the available molecular status, which was more complete in YP. YP were more likely to have de novo metastatic disease (71% vs. 57 %, P < 0.0001). YP were more likely to undergo curative hepatic resection (27% vs. 17 %, P < 0.0001), to receive any chemotherapy (93% vs. 78 % (P < 0.0001), and to receive 3+ lines of chemotherapy (30% vs. 24 % (P < 0.0034)). Median first-line progression free survival (10.2 versus 10.6 months) was similar for YP vs OP, but overall survival (32.1 versus 25.4 months, HR = 0.745, P < 0.0001) was longer in YP. CONCLUSION: Known prognostic variables mostly favored YP versus OP with newly diagnosed mCRC, who were also more heavily treated. Consistent with this, overall survival outcomes were improved. This data does not support that CRC in YP represent a distinct subset of mCRC patients, or that a modified treatment approach is warranted.

Health systems developments and predictors of bystander CPR in Ireland.

Aims: To explore predictors of bystander CPR (i.e. any CPR performed prior to EMS arrival) in Ireland over the period 2012-2020. To examine the relationship between bystander CPR and key health system developments during this period. Methods: National level out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) registry data relating to unwitnessed, and bystander witnessed OHCA were interrogated. Logistic regression models were built, then refined by fitting predictors, performing stepwise variable selection and by adding pairwise interactions that improved fit. Missing data sensitivity analyses were conducted using multiple imputation. Results: The data included 18,177 OHCA resuscitation attempts of whom 77% had bystander CPR. The final model included ten variables. Four variables (aetiology, incident location, time of day, and who witnessed collapse) were involved in interactions. The COVID-19 period was associated with reduced adjusted odds of bystander CPR (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65, 0.92), as were increasing age in years (OR 0.992, 95% CI 0.989, 0.994) and urban location (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.47, 0.57). Increasing year over time (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16, 1.29), and an increased call response interval in minutes (OR 1.017, 95% CI 1.012, 1.022) were associated with increased adjusted odds of bystander CPR. Conclusions: Bystander CPR increased over the study period, and it is likely that health system developments contributed to the yearly increases observed. However, COVID-19 appeared to disrupt this positive trend. Urban OHCA location was associated with markedly decreased odds of bystander CPR compared to rural location. Given its importance bystander CPR in urban areas should be an immediate target for intervention.

Prenatal Exposure to the 1944-45 Dutch Famine and Risk for Dementia up to Age 75: An Analysis of Primary Care Data.

BACKGROUND: A poor prenatal environment adversely affects brain development. Studies investigating long-term consequences of prenatal exposure to the 1944-45 Dutch famine have shown that those exposed to famine in early gestation had poorer selective attention, smaller brain volumes, poorer brain perfusion, older appearing brains, and increased reporting of cognitive problems, all indicative of increased dementia risk. OBJECTIVE: In the current population-based study, we investigated whether dementia incidence up to age 75 was higher among individuals who had been prenatally exposed to famine. METHODS: We included men (n=6,714) and women (n=7,051) from the Nivel Primary Care Database who had been born in seven cities affected by the Dutch famine. We used Cox regression to compare dementia incidence among individuals exposed to famine during late (1,231), mid (1,083), or early gestation (601) with those unexposed (born before or conceived after the famine). RESULTS: We did not observe differences in dementia incidence for those exposed to famine in mid or early gestation compared to those unexposed. Men and women exposed to famine in late gestation had significantly lower dementia rates compared to unexposed individuals (HR 0.52 (95%CI 0.30-0.89)). Sex-specific analyses showed a lower dementia rate in women exposed to famine in late gestation (HR 0.39 (95%CI 0.17-0.86)) but not in men (HR 0.68 (95%CI 0.33-1.41)). CONCLUSION: Although prenatal exposure to the Dutch famine has previously been associated with measures of accelerated brain aging, the present population-based study did not show increased dementia incidence up to age 75 in those exposed to famine during gestation.

Inability to Work Fulltime and the Association with Paid Employment One Year After the Work Disability Assessment: A Longitudinal Register-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Disability benefit applicants with residual work capacity are often not able to work fulltime. In Dutch work disability benefit assessments, the inability to work fulltime is an important outcome, indicating the number of hours the applicant can sustain working activities per day. This study aims to gain insight into the association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year after the assessment. METHODS: The study is a longitudinal register-based cohort study of work disability applicants who were granted a partial disability benefit (n = 8300). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year after the assessment, separately for working and non-working applicants. RESULTS: For disability benefit applicants, whether working (31.9%) or not working (68.1%) at the time of the disability assessment, there was generally no association between inability to work fulltime and having paid employment 1 year later. However, for working applicants diagnosed with a musculoskeletal disease or cancer, inability to work fulltime was positively and negatively associated with having paid employment, respectively. For non-working applicants with a respiratory disease or with multimorbidity, inability to work fulltime was negatively associated with paid employment. CONCLUSIONS: Inability to work fulltime has limited association with paid employment 1 year after the disability benefit assessment, regardless of the working status at the time of assessment. However, within certain disease groups, inability to work fulltime can either increase or decrease the odds of having paid employment after the assessment.

Evaluating site-of-care-related racial disparities in kidney graft failure using a novel federated learning framework.

OBJECTIVES: Racial disparities in kidney transplant access and posttransplant outcomes exist between non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients in the United States, with the site of care being a key contributor. Using multi-site data to examine the effect of site of care on racial disparities, the key challenge is the dilemma in sharing patient-level data due to regulations for protecting patients' privacy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a federated learning framework, named dGEM-disparity (decentralized algorithm for Generalized linear mixed Effect Model for disparity quantification). Consisting of 2 modules, dGEM-disparity first provides accurately estimated common effects and calibrated hospital-specific effects by requiring only aggregated data from each center and then adopts a counterfactual modeling approach to assess whether the graft failure rates differ if NHB patients had been admitted at transplant centers in the same distribution as NHW patients were admitted. RESULTS: Utilizing United States Renal Data System data from 39 043 adult patients across 73 transplant centers over 10 years, we found that if NHB patients had followed the distribution of NHW patients in admissions, there would be 38 fewer deaths or graft failures per 10 000 NHB patients (95% CI, 35-40) within 1 year of receiving a kidney transplant on average. DISCUSSION: The proposed framework facilitates efficient collaborations in clinical research networks. Additionally, the framework, by using counterfactual modeling to calculate the event rate, allows us to investigate contributions to racial disparities that may occur at the level of site of care. CONCLUSIONS: Our framework is broadly applicable to other decentralized datasets and disparities research related to differential access to care. Ultimately, our proposed framework will advance equity in human health by identifying and addressing hospital-level racial disparities.

Histology-specific standardized incidence ratio improves the estimation of second primary lung cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer (LC) survivors are at increased risk for developing a second primary cancer (SPC) compared to the general population. While this risk is particularly high for smoking-related SPCs, the published standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer after lung cancer is unexpectedly low in countries that follow international multiple primary (IARC/IACR MP) rules when compared to the USA, where distinct rules are employed. IARC/IACR rules rely on histology-dependent documentation of SPC with the same location as the first cancer and only classify an SPC when tumors present different histology. Thus, SIR might be underestimated in cancer registries using these rules. This study aims to assess whether using histology-specific reference rates for calculating SIR improves risk estimates for second primary lung cancer (SPLC) in LC survivors. METHODS: We (i) use the distribution of histologic subtypes of LC in population-based cancer registry data of 11 regional cancer registries from Germany to present evidence that the conventional SIR metric underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors in registries that use IARC/IACR MP rules, (ii) present updated risk estimates for SPLC in Germany using a novel method to calculate histological subtype-specific SIRs, and (iii) validate this new method using US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program) data, where different MP rules are applied. RESULTS: The adjusted relative risk for lung cancer survivors in Germany to develop an SPLC was 2.98 (95% CI 2.53-3.49) for females and 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.27) for males using the novel histology-specific SIR. When using IARC/IACR MP rules, the conventional SIR underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors by approximately 30% for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed histology-specific method makes the SIR metric more robust against MP rules and, thus, more suitable for cross-country comparisons.

Cut-Offs for Disease Activity States in Axial Spondyloarthritis With Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) Based on C-Reactive Protein and ASDAS Based on Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate: Are They Interchangeable?

OBJECTIVE: Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (ASDAS-CRP) is recommended over ASDAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASDAS-ESR) to assess disease activity in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Although ASDAS-CRP and ASDAS-ESR are not interchangeable, the same disease activity cut-offs are used for both. We aimed to estimate optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs (1.3, 2.1, and 3.5) and investigate the potential improvement of level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states when applying these estimated cut-offs. METHODS: We used data from patients with axSpA from 9 European registries initiating a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. ASDAS-ESR cut-offs were estimated using the Youden index. The level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states was compared against each other. RESULTS: In 3664 patients, mean ASDAS-CRP was higher than ASDAS-ESR at both baseline (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) and aggregated follow-up at 6, 12, or 24 months (1.9 and 1.8, respectively). The estimated ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs were 1.4, 1.9, and 3.3. By applying these cut-offs, the proportion of discordance between disease activity states according to ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP decreased from 22.93% to 19.81% in baseline data but increased from 27.17% to 28.94% in follow-up data. CONCLUSION: We estimated the optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-off values. However, applying the estimated cut-offs did not increase the level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states to a relevant degree. Our findings did not provide evidence to reject the established cut-off values for ASDAS-ESR.

Mediation analysis using incomplete information from publicly available data sources.

Our work was motivated by the question whether, and to what extent, well-established risk factors mediate the racial disparity observed for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the United States. Mediation analysis examines the relationships between an exposure, a mediator and an outcome. All available methods require access to a single complete data set with these three variables. However, because population-based studies usually include few non-White participants, these approaches have limited utility in answering our motivating question. Recently, we developed novel methods to integrate several data sets with incomplete information for mediation analysis. These methods have two limitations: (i) they only consider a single mediator and (ii) they require a data set containing individual-level data on the mediator and exposure (and possibly confounders) obtained by independent and identically distributed sampling from the target population. Here, we propose a new method for mediation analysis with several different data sets that accommodates complex survey and registry data, and allows for multiple mediators. The proposed approach yields unbiased causal effects estimates and confidence intervals with nominal coverage in simulations. We apply our method to data from U.S. cancer registries, a U.S.-population-representative survey and summary level odds-ratio estimates, to rigorously evaluate what proportion of the difference in CRC risk between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks is mediated by three potentially modifiable risk factors (CRC screening history, body mass index, and regular aspirin use).

Resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Ireland 2012-2020: Modelling national temporal developments and survival predictors.

Aim: To explore potential predictors of national out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival, including health system developments and the COVID pandemic in Ireland. Methods: National level OHCA registry data from 2012 through to 2020, relating to unwitnessed, and bystander witnessed OHCA were interrogated. Logistic regression models were built by including predictors through stepwise variable selection and enhancing the models by adding pairwise interactions that improved fit. Missing data sensitivity analyses were conducted using multiple imputation. Results: The data included 18,177 cases. The final model included seventeen variables. Of these nine variables were involved in pairwise interactions. The COVID-19 period was associated with reduced survival (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.43, 0.87), as were increasing age in years (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.96, 0.97) and call response interval in minutes (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96, 0.99). Amiodarone administration (OR 3.91, 95% CI 2.80, 5.48), urban location (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.12, 1.77), and chronological year over time (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.20) were associated with increased survival. Conclusions: National survival from OHCA has significantly increased incrementally over time in Ireland. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with decreased survival even after accounting for potential disruption to key elements of bystander and EMS care. Further research is needed to understand and address the discrepancy between urban and rural OHCA survival. Information concerning pre-event patient health status and inpatient care process may yield important additional insights in future.

Associations between outpatient care and later hospital admissions for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - a registry study from Norway.

BACKGROUND: Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) admissions put a substantial burden on hospitals, most of the patients' contacts with health services are in outpatient care. Traditionally, outpatient care has been difficult to capture in population-based samples. In this study we describe outpatient service use in COPD patients and assess associations between outpatient care (contact frequency and specific factors) and next-year COPD hospital admissions or 90-day readmissions. METHODS: Patients over 40 years of age residing in Oslo or Trondheim at the time of contact in the period 2009-2018 were identified from the Norwegian Patient Registry (in- and outpatient hospital contacts, rehabilitation) and the KUHR registry (contacts with GPs, contract specialists and physiotherapists). These were linked to the Regular General Practitioner registry (characteristics of the GP practice), long-term care data (home and institutional care, need for assistance), socioeconomic and-demographic data from Statistics Norway and the Cause of Death registry. Negative binomial models were applied to study associations between combinations of outpatient care, specific care factors and next-year COPD hospital admissions and 90-day readmissions. The sample consisted of 24,074 individuals. RESULTS: A large variation in the frequency and combination of outpatient service use for respiratory diagnoses (GP, emergency room, physiotherapy, contract specialist and outpatient hospital contacts) was apparent. GP and outpatient hospital contact frequency were strongly associated to an increased number of next-year hospital admissions (1.2-3.2 times higher by increasing GP frequency when no outpatient hospital contacts, 2.4-5 times higher in combination with outpatient hospital contacts). Adjusted for healthcare use, comorbidities and sociodemographics, outpatient care factors associated with lower numbers of next-year hospitalisations were fees indicating interaction between providers (7% reduction), spirometry with GP or specialist (7%), continuity of care with GP (15%), and GP follow-up (8%) or rehabilitation (18%) within 30 days vs. later following any current year hospitalisations. For 90-day readmissions results were less evident, and most variables were non-significant. CONCLUSION: As increased use of outpatient care was strongly associated with future hospitalisations, this further stresses the need for good communication between providers when coordinating care for COPD patients. The results indicated possible benefits of care continuity within and interaction between providers.

The use of the Core Yellow Flags Index for the assessment of psychosocial distress in patients undergoing surgery of the cervical spine.

BACKGROUND: Psychosocial distress (the presence of yellow flags) has been linked to poor outcomes in spine surgery. The Core Yellow Flags Index (CYFI), a short instrument assessing the 4 main yellow flags, was developed for use in patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery. This study evaluated its ability to predict outcome in patients undergoing cervical spine surgery. METHODS: Patients with degenerative spinal disorders (excluding myelopathy) operated in one centre, from 2015 to 2019, were asked to complete the CYFI at baseline and the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) at baseline and 3 and 12 months after surgery. The relationship between CYFI and COMI scores at baseline as well as the predictive ability of the CYFI on the COMI follow-up scores were tested using structural equation modelling. RESULTS: From 731 eligible patients, 547 (61.0 ± 12.5 years; 57.2% female) completed forms at all three timepoints. On a cross-sectional basis, preoperative CYFI and COMI scores were highly correlated (ß = 0.54, in men and 0.51 in women; each p < 0.001). CYFI added significantly and independently to the prediction of COMI at 3 months' FU in men (ß = 0.36) and 12 months' FU in men and women (both ß = 0.20) (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The CYFI had a low to moderate but significant and independent association with cervical spine surgery outcomes. Implementing the CYFI in the preoperative workup of these patients could help refine outcome predictions and better manage patient expectations.

Quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness against cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse in Norway: A registry-based study of 0,9 million Norwegian women.

In Norway, single cohort vaccination with quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccine targeting 12-year-old girls took place from 2009-2016. In 2020, the oldest vaccinated cohort was 23 years old and had approached the age where risk of being diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial lesion grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) increases rapidly. The aim of this cohort study was to assess direct qHPV vaccine effectiveness (VE) against CIN2+ among Norwegian women aged 16-30 in 2007-2020. By using population-based health registries and individual-level data on vaccination status and potential subsequent CIN2+ incidence, we found 82% qHPV VE among women vaccinated before the age of 17.