Moderating AC Usage Can Reduce Thermal Disparity between Indoor and Outdoor Environments.

In the context of escalating urban heat events due to climate change, air conditioning (AC) has become a critical factor in maintaining indoor thermal comfort. Yet the usage of AC can also exacerbate outdoor heat stress and burden the electricity system, and there is little scientific knowledge regarding how to balance these conflicting goals. To address this issue, we established a coupled modeling approach, integrating the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the building energy model (WRF_BEP + BEM), and designed multiple AC usage scenarios. We selected Chongqing, China's fourth-largest megacity, as our study area due to its significant socioeconomic importance, the severity of extreme heat events, and the uniqueness of its energy infrastructure. Our analysis reveals that AC systems can substantially reduce indoor temperatures by up to 18 °C; however, it also identifies substantial nighttime warming (2-2.5 °C) and a decline in thermal comfort. Particularly for high-density neighborhoods, when we increase 2 °C indoors, the outdoor temperature can be alleviated by up to 1 °C. Besides, despite the limited capacity to regulate peak electricity demand, we identified that reducing the spatial cooled fraction, increasing targeted indoor temperature by 2 °C, and implementing temporal AC schedules can effectively lower energy consumption in high-density neighborhoods, especially the reduction of spatial cooled fraction (up to 50%). Considering the substantial demand for cooling energy, it is imperative to carefully assess the adequacy and continuity of backup energy sources. The study underscores the urgency of reassessing energy resilience and advocates for addressing the thermal equity between indoor and outdoor environments, contributing to the development of a sustainable and just urban climate strategy in an era of intensifying heat events.

Scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change.

The spatial distribution of potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presents a significant vertical zonation. Explicating the vertical differences of potential vegetation distribution under future climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is an important issue for understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystem to climate change. Based on the observed climate data in 1981-2010 (T0), the scenario data of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 released by CMIP5 in 2011-2040 (T1), 2041-2070 (T2) and 2071-2100 (T3), and the digital elevation model (DEM) data, the Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model has been improved to simulate the scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The shift model of mean center has been improved to calculate the shift direction and distance of mean center in the potential vegetation types. The ecological diversity index was introduced to compute the ecological diversity change of potential vegetation. The simulated results show that there are 17 potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Wet tundra, high-cold moist forest and nival are the major potential vegetation types and cover 56.26% of the total area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Under the three scenarios, the nival would have the largest decreased area that would be decreased by 3.340 × 104 km2 per decade, and the high-cold wet forest would have the greatest increased area that would be increased by 3.340 × 104 km2 on average per decade from T0 to T3. The potential vegetation types distributed in the alpine zone would show the fastest change ratio (11.32% per decade) and that in low mountain and other zone would show the slowest change ratio (7.54% per decade) on average. The ecological diversity and patch connectivity of potential vegetation would be decreased by 0.108% and 0.290% per decade on average from T0 to T3. In general, the potential vegetation types distributed in the high elevation area generally have a higher sensitivity to climate change in Qinghai-Tibet plateau in the future.

[Scenario simulation of ecosystem service trade-offs in bay cities: A case study in Quanzhou, Fujian Province, China]. / æµ·æ¹¾åž‹åŸŽå¸‚ç”Ÿæ€ç³»ç»ŸæœåŠ¡æƒè¡¡çš„æƒ æ™¯æ¨¡æ‹Ÿ­­ä»¥ç¦å»ºçœæ³‰å·žå¸‚为例.

Bay cities have abundant land-sea resources and higher environmental carrying capacity. The high density of population and industry surrounding the bay makes bay cities a type of ecologically fragile areas. With Quanzhou, a typical bay city, as an example, we simulated the land use and landscape pattern change in 2030 based on multiple data sources (land use data, meteorological site data, topographic data and statistical data) using Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model to set natural scenarios, planning scenarios and protection scenarios. Four key ecosystem service (ES) including water retention, soil conservation, carbon sequestration (NPP), food supply and their trade-offs were calculated and predicted. Under the three scenarios, the area of cultivated land and construction land in Quanzhou City would increase in 2030. Forest land, grassland and water area would be reduced in varying degrees. The fragmentation of land use would be serious. In comparison with 2015, except for soil conservation service, water retention, carbon sequestrtion and food supply of Quanzhou City would decline to varying degrees in 2030. Ecosystem service function in natural scenario would be more decreased, with the decline under the protection scenario being lower than the planning scenario. In the protection and planning scenarios, the synergy between water conservation and soil conservation, water conservation and carbon sequestrtion, soil conservation and carbon sequestrtion in 2030 would be enhanced and the trade-offs would be weakened.

Nutrient loads in the river mouth of the Río Verde basin in Jalisco, Mexico: how to prevent eutrophication in the future reservoir?

Since nutrients are emitted and mobilized in river basins, causing eutrophication of water bodies, it is important to reduce such emissions and subsequent nutrient loads. Due to processes of attenuation, nutrient loads are reduced during their mobilization in river basins. At the mouth of the Río Verde basin in western Mexico, the El Purgatorio dam is being constructed to supply water to the metropolitan area of the second most populated city in the country, Guadalajara. To analyze situations that allow protecting this future dam from eutrophication, nutrient loads in the mouth of the river basin were determined and their reduction scenarios evaluated by using the NEWS2 (Nutrient Export from Watersheds) model. For this, a nutrient emissions inventory was established and used to model nutrient loads, and modeling results were compared to an analysis of water quality data from two different monitoring sites located on the river. The results suggest that 96% of nitrogen and 99% of phosphorus emissions are attenuated in the watershed. Nutrient loads reaching the mouth of the river basin come mainly from wastewater discharges, followed by livestock activities and different land uses, and loads are higher as emissions are located closer to the mouth of the river basin. To achieve and maintain mesotrophic state of water in the future dam, different nutrient emission reduction scenarios were evaluated. According to these results, the reduction of 90% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions or 75% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions and at least 50% in emissions from livestock activities in the river basin are required.