Trajectories of socio-ecological systems: A case study in the tropical Andes.

Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.

Human-Wildlife Conflicts in the Southern Yungas: What Role do Raptors Play for Local Settlers?

Wildlife persecution due to human-wildlife conflict has become a serious concern for biodiversity conservation, especially for many endangered species. In this context, conservation approaches need to consider the socio-ecological dimensions of each particular situation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the existence, extent and social characteristics of Human-Raptor Conflicts (HRC) in the Southern Yungas region in northwestern Argentina. We conducted 115 semi-structured interviews in 21 sites and analyzed attitudes and associations between sociodemographic variables and the existence of HRC. Forty percent of interviewees showed negative attitudes towards raptors, mainly with those species considered livestock predators rather than poultry predators. A total of 11 species were regarded as conflictive because of predation on domestic animals, of which Andean condors showed the highest conflict. The only socio-demographic factor affecting conflicts was livestock and poultry rearing, independently of age, gender and occupation of interviewees. The fact that only 8.7% of interviewees reported taking direct actions towards conflictive species indicates a relatively peaceful coexistence of people with raptors. Nevertheless, negative attitudes towards Andean condor together with their extreme susceptibility to any increase in non-natural mortality indicate the need of an integral conservation approach to tackle future threats for this species' conservation in the area.

Application of Systems Thinking to the assessment of an institutional development project of river restoration at a campus university in Southern Brazil.

Rapid urban growth and high population density have become a problem for urban water resources, especially in developing countries. In general, the pollution of rivers and degradation of ecosystems are the result of both management failures and lack of sewage treatment. River restoration appears as a solution to improve this scenario, but it is common for there to be an absence of a systemic vision in these projects. Thus, this work analysed one of these projects as an initial approach to create coherent (qualitative) shared perspectives on the same problem. This project was developed in a Brazilian university territory in response to a Public Civil Action. Rivers within the university surroundings are degraded due to sewage disposal and wastewater pollution from external and internal sources within the university, but the programme actions contemplate only interventions within the perimeter of the university while excluding the other parts of its watershed. We analyse this problem under a Systems Thinking approach by using causal loop diagrams, being clear that ecosystems cannot be reduced to territorial limits only. The systemic map shows many actions that contribute to the water quality degradation, with emphasis on illegal dumping of wastewater (sewage) and land use change in the upstream areas prior to the university. Point measures are palliative and do not guarantee the quality of river water. Regulation of impervious surfaces and correct disposal of wastewater can improve the current panorama, but greater integration between stakeholders and other key actors is required.

Climate smart agriculture, farm household typologies and food security: An ex-ante assessment from Eastern India.

One of the great challenges in agricultural development and sustainable intensification is the assurance of social equity in food security oriented interventions. Development practitioners, researchers, and policy makers alike could benefit from prior insight into what interventions or environmental shocks might differentially affect farmers' food security status, in order to move towards more informed and equitable development. We examined the food security status and livelihood activities of 269 smallholder farm households (HHs) in Bihar, India. Proceeding with a four-step analysis, we first applied a multivariate statistical methodology to differentiate five primary farming system types. We next applied an indicator of food security in the form of HH potential food availability (PFA), and examined the contribution of crop, livestock, and on- and off-farm income generation to PFA within each farm HH type. Lastly, we applied scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of the adoption of 'climate smart' agricultural (CSA) practices in the form of conservation agriculture (CA) and improved livestock husbandry, and environmental shocks on HH PFA. Our results indicate that compared to livestock interventions, CA may hold considerable potential to boost HH PFA, though primarily for wealthier and medium-scale cereal farmers. These farm HH types were however considerably more vulnerable to food insecurity risks resulting from simulated drought, while part-time farmers and resource-poor agricultural laborers generating income from off-farm pursuits were comparatively less vulnerable, due in part to their more diversified income sources and potential to migrate in search of work. Our results underscore the importance of prior planning for development initiatives aimed at increasing smallholder food security while maintaining social equity, while providing a robust methodology to vet the implications of agricultural interventions on an ex ante basis.

The socioeconomic factors that facilitate or constrain restoration management: Watershed rehabilitation and wet meadow (bofedal) restoration in the Bolivian Andes.

Restoration ecology holds promise for addressing land degradation in impoverished rural environments, provided the approach is adapted to rural development settings. While there is a need for increased integration of social dynamics in land restoration, few systematic studies exist. We explored the socioeconomic factors that influence restoration management, including local motives and perceived benefits, incentives, land tenancy, institutional factors, conflict resolution, accessibility, off-farm labor, and outmigration. The study area is a successful watershed rehabilitation and wet meadow restoration project in the Bolivian Andes that began in 1992. We used household survey methods (n = 237) to compare the communities that had conducted the most restoration management with those that had conducted the least. Results suggest that several factors facilitate investments in land restoration, including aligning restoration objectives with local motives and perceived benefits, ensuring incentives are in place to stimulate long-term investments, conflict resolution, private land tenancy, and accessibility. However, higher levels of organization and active leadership can facilitate land restoration on communal lands. Increased livelihood benefits from land restoration helped slow the rate of rural to urban migration, with 24.5% outmigration in the highest restoration management communities compared to 62.1% in the lowest restoration management communities. Results suggest that land restoration projects that integrate community development into project planning and implementation will achieve greater success.

El papel de la propiedad en el desarrollo departamental. Evidencias para el caso colombiano / The roll of property on the regional development. Evidence for Colombian experience / O papel da propriedade no desenvolvimento departamental. Evidência para o caso colombiano

Resumen Desde la Nueva Economía Institucional NEI se analiza para Colombia la relación entre las formas de propiedad del territorio y las dinámicas de desarrollo de los departamentos, para identificar asociaciones, dependencias y restricciones, entre la representatividad de cada forma de propiedad y los niveles de desarrollo a nivel departamental. Para ello se parte de una revisión normativa de las formas de propiedad, y se recopila información estadística sobre las propiedades existentes en el país; se analizan las formas de propiedad privada individual, privada, colectiva y pública para conservación, y se estiman sus efectos sobre el desarrollo departamental desde un modelo econométrico Logit Multinomial Ordenado, tomando los indicadores de desarrollo humano (IDH), densidad empresarial (IDE), y competitividad global (ICG) como medida de las dimensiones del desarrollo en los departamentos. Se encontró que las formas de propiedad, influencian la probabilidad de desarrollo de los departamentos, donde los efectos de cada forma de propiedad sobre los indicadores de desarrollo dependerán del nivel de desarrollo que presente cada territorio; así, departamentos con niveles de desarrollo bajos, medios y altos, se verán influenciados de manera diferente por cada forma de propiedad presente en el departamento. Estos resultados señalan la pertenencia de incorporar los análisis de la estructura territorial en el ordenamiento territorial y la planeación de los departamentos, y soportan la urgente necesidad de reorganizar la composición departamental según las formas de propiedad. Códigos JEL: R52, R58.

Abstract From the New Institutional Economics NEI, the relationship between the ownership land categories and the development dynamics at districts is analyzed for Colombia, this in order to identify associations, dependencies and constraints, between the size of different property types, and district development levels. A revision of the property categories by legal bases is taken, and from it the gather of statistical information for the country's property types: individual private property, collective private property and conservation public property and so, the effects on district's development are analyzed by econometric Logit Multinomial model, taking into account indicators of human development (HDI), business density (SDI), and Competitiveness (GCI) as a measure of the level of development at the districts. It was found that ownership categories influence the probability for district development, where the effects of every ownership category on development will depend on the development level of every district; thus, districts with low, medium and high levels of development will be influenced in different ways by each category of property land, exiting at districts. These results highlight the importance of taking into account the analysis of the land ownership structures, into land ordering and the development planning of districts, and support the requirement to reorganize the district administrative structure according to ownership categories. JEL classification: R52, R58.

Resumo A partir da Nova Economia Institucional NEI, a Colômbia analisa a relação entre as formas de propriedade da terra e a dinâmica de desenvolvimento dos departamentos, para identificar associações, dependências e restrições, entre a representatividade de cada forma de propriedade e os níveis de desenvolvimento no nível departamental. Para fazer isso, é realizada uma revisão normativa dos formulários de propriedade, e as informações estatísticas são coletadas sobre as propriedades existentes no país; As formas de propriedade individual, privada, coletiva e pública privada são analisadas para conservação, e seus efeitos no desenvolvimento departamental são estimados a partir de um modelo econométrico Logit Multinomial Ordenado, tomando os indicadores de desenvolvimento humano (IDH), densidade de negócios (IDE) e competitividade global (ICG) como uma medida das dimensões do desenvolvimento nos departamentos. Verificou-se que as formas de propriedade influenciam a probabilidade de desenvolvimento dos departamentos, onde os efeitos de cada forma de propriedade nos indicadores de desenvolvimento dependerão do nível de desenvolvimento que cada território apresenta; Assim, os departamentos com níveis baixos, médios e altos de desenvolvimento serão influenciados de forma diferente por cada forma de propriedade presente no departamento. Estes resultados indicam a pertença de incorporar a análise da estrutura territorial no planejamento territorial e o planejamento dos departamentos e apoiar a necessidade urgente de reorganizar a composição departamental de acordo com as formas de propriedade. Classificações JEL: R52, R58.