Do commodities offer diversification benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis? Evidence from dynamic spillover approach.

This paper examines the diversification benefits of commodity indices during the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing both static and dynamic risk spillovers for the period from January 2, 1998 to September 16, 2020. Using variance decomposition forecasting, we employed static and dynamic analyses based on the estimation of 50-day moving window spillover indices. Globally, the results show significant spillovers between markets during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The results show that stock markets are highly interdependent with other financial markets (in both directions), and that commodity markets (except energy) and the bond market are recipients of shocks emanating from stock markets. The main contribution of this paper is to study the return and volatility spillovers between stock and commodity indices before and during the pandemic. This study of shock transmission mechanisms will enable investors to develop optimal diversification and hedging strategies during the crisis. In this context, we found that commodities and US government bonds could offer diversification benefits to investors. In addition, some of these assets may serve as hedging instruments or safe havens during the COVID-19 crisis.

Integration of Pakistan's stock market with the stock markets of top ten developed economies.

This study examines the integration of Pakistan's Stock Market with the stock markets of the top ten largest economies in the world-USA, China, Japan, Germany, the UK, India, France, Italy, Brazil, and Canada-from January 2015 to October 2020. To examine long- and short run integration, this study employed Johansen and Juselius co-integration and pair-wise Granger causality tests. In the long run, the results indicated that Pakistan's Stock Market is not integrated with these markets. This implies that the market is more attractive in portfolio diversification for international investors, and vice versa. In the short run, the results revealed that, except for China, Pakistan's stock market integrates with the remaining nine markets. However, Pakistan's stock market exhibits a bidirectional relationship with the USA, Japan, Germany, the UK, and France in the lead-lag relationship. However, its relationship with India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada is unidirectional, with Pakistan's stock market leading, while these markets are following. For Pakistani investors, China is the optimal market, and vice versa. Importantly, our findings help policymakers to comprehend Pakistan's dynamic relationship with its trading partners. To the best of our knowledge, no prior study has employed advanced techniques to address the time-varying correlation among the selected markets. By determining Pakistan's stock market integration with its trading partners, this study aimed to fill this empirical literature gap.

The link between electricity consumption and stock market during the pandemic in Türkiye: a novel high-frequency approach.

This article examines the relationship between electricity consumption and the stock market in the Turkish economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. A novel high-frequency model is used, incorporating the hourly energy consumption and Borsa Istanbul (BIST) National stock market index variables. To determine the effect of electricity consumption on the stock market index and vice versa, a high-frequency VAR-based spillover approach, time-varying Granger causality, and time-varying Bayesian VAR analysis are employed. The findings reveal a positive and weak relationship between electricity consumption and the stock market but it has a time-varying nature in an emerging market context in the post-COVID-19 period in the Turkish economy.

Law and Stock Market Development in the UK over Time: An Uneasy Match.

Britain has a reputation for having a stock market-oriented corporate economy and there is an extensive literature maintaining that laws affording substantial protection to outside investors are needed for a thriving stock market. Historically, however, UK equity markets have not always flourished and, when they have, law's contribution has been open to question. This article considers the uneasy match between law and Britain's stock market development from when shares first began to trade publicly through to the present day, offering in so doing insights into the relationship between law and equity markets and current reforms intended to revive a flagging UK stock exchange.

The dynamic causality between Chinese and ASEAN stock markets.

COVID-19 has caused severe shocks to the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets. This paper investigates the relationship between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets using the bootstrap rolling-window causality test. The results show that there is a bidirectional Granger causality relationship between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets with time-varying characteristics. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the interaction between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets was mainly positive. After the COVID-19 outbreak, during the off-peak period, the interaction between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets was positive or negative at different periods; during the peak period of the epidemic, the ASEAN stock markets had negative impacts on the Chinese stock market. In addition, the relationship between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets was enhanced during COVID-19. According to the interaction mechanism, economic and political factors would affect the relationship between the Chinese and ASEAN stock markets, but major events such as COVID-19 have a greater impact. Therefore, macroeconomic policy should play a positive role in the stock market.

Impact of COVID-19 on investor sentiment in China's stock markets.

Large-scale public health emergencies may exert significant adverse effects on market sentiment. This study utilizes interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to explore the shift in Chinese investors' sentiment in response to the uncertainties due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical findings demonstrate that COVID-19 had a notable impact on investor sentiment within China's stock markets. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, investor sentiment had been on an upward trend. However, since the onset of the pandemic, there has been a sustained decline in investor sentiment, aligning with the downward trend observed in China's stock markets. Interestingly, the immediate effect of the COVID-19 intervention was positive, briefly boosting investor sentiment. As of 2023, with the conclusion of the pandemic and the Chinese government's decision to end the zero COVID-19 policy, we anticipate resurgence in investor sentiment within China's stock markets.

Interplay of multifractal dynamics between shadow policy rates and stock markets.

Stock markets are generally perceived as a barometer of the economy and respond to international monetary policies even before economic activities. Many central banks have turned to unconventional policy measures in response to various financial crises such as the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 or the recent crisis caused by COVID-19. To examine the cross-correlation of overall international monetary policies with stock markets, we employ the daily shadow short rate (SSR), which has the advantage of allowing comparison across unconventional and conventional regimes. The analysis is made through a multifractal context using multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis (MF-DXA), considering daily data from 1st January 2000 to 31st March 2022 and country specific SSR and the stock markets of eight developed economies. The main empirical findings are the following: (i) all the country specific pairs of SSR with stock markets have significant multifractal characteristics (ii) the pairs of NZ-SSR/NZX50, US-SSR/DJIA, and CN-SSR/S&P TSX have the highest multifractal patterns while EU-SSR/Euro-area Index has the lowest multifractal patterns (iii) Australian and New Zealand stock markets exhibit anti-persistent cross-correlation with SSR while the remainder have persistent cross-correlation in their multifractality. Lastly, the findings of this study have several important implications for central banks and stock market participants.

Quantile VAR network evidence for spillover effects and connectivity between China's stock markets, green commodities, and Bitcoin.

Numerous economic and financial crises, particularly the present crisis in the healthcare sector, have pushed major shock spillover channels over stock marketplaces. This research studied how the shock spillover system is affected by three significant factors: Bitcoins, unpredictability, and the China stock market between 2014 and 2021. While much earlier empirical research has looked at risk dispersion in different financial markets, this article will zero in on green markets. This investigation seeks to accomplish something that has never been done before: determine whether or not green commodities, Bitcoin, and uncertainty impact the performance of the China stock market. The following are significant results based on a quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) connection. (i) A static spillover system indicates that information was widely shared across markets during intense market circumstances. (ii) The global green economy and clean energy marketplaces are the primary sources of knowledge spillover in adverse market conditions. This research elucidates the asymmetrical influence of green products, Bitcoin, and market volatility in China. This is vital due to the dynamic nature of international and regional connections. Recent studies have shown that shock spillovers are excellent for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), uncertainty indices, and global carbon indexes, but bad for most eco-friendly products.

Examining the interconnectedness of green finance: an analysis of dynamic spillover effects among green bonds, renewable energy, and carbon markets.

There is growing importance of green finance as a means to finance sustainable projects and reduce carbon emissions. Green bonds have emerged as an important financing tool in this context, and there is a need to understand how they are interconnected with other components of the green finance ecosystem, such as renewable energy and carbon markets. This study investigates the interconnectivity of green finance by analyzing the dynamic spillover effects among green bonds, renewable energy stocks, and carbon markets. Using daily data spanning from January 2010 to December 2020, vector autoregressive models and time-varying parameter models are applied to examine the transmission channels of shocks among these assets. The results reveal significant dynamic spillover effects between green bonds and renewable energy stocks, as well as between carbon markets and renewable energy stocks. Additionally, the findings suggest a complementary relationship between green bonds and carbon markets. This study provides insights into the interdependence of different green financial instruments and their role in promoting sustainable development. The outcomes of the research can guide policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding green finance.

The Risk Contagion between Chinese and Mature Stock Markets: Evidence from a Markov-Switching Mixed-Clayton Copula Model.

Exploring the risk spillover between Chinese and mature stock markets is a promising topic. In this study, we propose a Markov-switching mixed-Clayton (Ms-M-Clayton) copula model that combines a state transition mechanism with a weighted mixed-Clayton copula. It is applied to investigate the dynamic risk dependence between Chinese and mature stock markets in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Oceania regions. Additionally, the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) is applied to analyze the risk spillovers between these markets. The empirical results demonstrate that there is mainly a time-varying but stable positive risk dependence structure between Chinese and mature stock markets, where the upside and downside risk correlations are asymmetric. Moreover, the risk contagion primarily spills over from mature stock markets to the Chinese stock market, and the downside effect is stronger. Finally, the risk contagion from Asia-Oceania to China is weaker than that from Europe and the Americas. The study provides insights into the risk association between emerging markets, represented by China, and mature stock markets in major regions. It is significant for investors and risk managers, enabling them to avoid investment risks and prevent risk contagion.

COVID-19 Vaccines, Healthcare Policies and Stock Markets: Are There Winners and Losers?

Purpose: This paper focuses on the stock market performance of a set of biopharmaceutical companies listed in the US stock exchange in response to news about the unfolding of the COVID pandemic and the development of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods: We analyze the short-term impact of some episodes by means of event analysis. We consider two categories of events: news related to the expansion of the pandemic and information about the development of COVID-19 vaccines. Results: We find that the impact during the first months of the pandemic news impacted the returns of the pharmaceutical firms, but the effect was not large, in general. The only exceptions are two small biotechnological firms, Moderna and Novavax, are exceptions since they registered large positive abnormal returns, which vanished over time. Encouraging announcements about the success of Phase III results had a positive impact the share prices of Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax. Our results also suggest that the emergency authorization provided by the US regulatory agency to the Pfizer vaccine was anticipated several days in advance and welcomed by the market. The announcement of a deal to supply vaccines between Moderna and the European Commission have generated large positive returns for this company. Conclusion: Our findings have policy implications. First, financial markets have supported and reinforced government strategies to fight the pandemic, characterized by funding of promising projects, building diversified vaccine portfolios and expediting approvals by regulatory agencies. Second, our findings suggest that not all drug developers have automatically obtained large profits from the design and manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines, according to the behaviour of stock prices. These results cast doubts over attempts to discredit the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines with the argument that they are primarily a means to obtain large and quick profits by pharmaceuticals, or than vaccination campaigns are driven by economic goals rather than by public health considerations.

Stock market responses to COVID-19: The behaviors of mean reversion, dependence and persistence.

We examine stock market responses during the COVID-19 pandemic period using fractional integration techniques. The evidence suggests that stock markets generally follow a synchronized movement before and the stages of the pandemic shocks. We find while mean reversion significantly declines, the degree of persistence and dependence has been increased in the majority of the stock market indices in whole sample analysis covering the period of August 02, 2019 and July 09, 2020. This outcome implies increasing integration and possibly declining benefits of diversification for the global stock portfolio management.

Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risk on stock markets: A comparative analysis of the E7 and G7 equities during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In a nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression model, we analyze the asymmetric financial impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict-induced geopolitical risk (GPR) on the top-seven emerging (E7) and developed (G7) stock markets. Our findings indicate that the impact of GPR on stock markets is not only market-specific but also asymmetric. Except for Russia and China, all E7 and G7 stocks respond positively to GPR in normal conditions. Among the E7 (G7) countries, stock markets from Brazil, China, Russia, and Turkey (France, Japan, and the US) are resilient to GPR in bearish stages. The portfolio and policy implications of our findings have been highlighted.

Co-movement between Covid-19 and G20 stock market returns: A time and frequency analysis.

In our study, we employ DCC-GARCH and Wavelet coherence analysis to examine the co-movement between global covid-19 indicators (cases, recoveries and deaths) and stock returns of main equity markets in G20 countries using daily data spanning between February 2, 2020 and August 28, 2021. Our empirical results show that the co-movement between COVID-19 and G20 stock returns has been switching between negative and positive correlations across the entire time window. The wavelet coherence analysis further reveal that negative (positive) co-movements predominantly exist as lower (higher frequencies) for cases and deaths and are more mixed for recoveries. The findings also show that the short-frequency components correspond to periods around the initial announcement of the initial pandemic and also around the announced of subsequent variants of the COVID-19 virus. Policy and market implications from our study are also discussed.

Information flow between global financial market stress and African equity markets: An EEMD-based transfer entropy analysis.

The flow of information between markets is important to guide investors and policymakers in the effective allocation of assets and proactive market regulation, respectively. This study examines the impact of information flow from global financial market stress on the African stock markets using the daily US financial stress index (USFSI) and other advanced economies' financial stress index (OAEFSI) to proxy the global financial stress index. To understand the information flow dynamics across various investment horizons, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based transfer entropy is employed. Our findings reveal that African equity markets are highly risky for information flow from global financial market stress. However, we identify diversification prospects based on market conditions for Ghana and Egypt in the short term and Tanzania, Cote D'Ivoire, and Egypt in the medium term. Empirical results also show that the information flow from global financial stress to African stock markets depends on time scales, economic relations, and the state of global financial markets. The findings are important for investors, portfolio managers, practitioners, and policymakers.

Machine learning sentiment analysis, COVID-19 news and stock market reactions.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented worldwide event to study the influence of related news on the financial markets, especially during the early stage of the pandemic when information on the new threat came rapidly and was complex for investors to process. In this paper, we investigate whether the flow of news on COVID-19 had an impact on forming market expectations. We analyze 203,886 online articles dealing with COVID-19 and published on three news platforms (MarketWatch.com, NYTimes.com, and Reuters.com) in the period from January to June 2020. Using machine learning techniques, we extract the news sentiment through a financial market-adapted BERT model that enables recognizing the context of each word in a given item. Our results show that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between sentiment scores and S&P 500 market. Furthermore, we provide evidence that sentiment components and news categories on NYTimes.com were differently related to market returns.

COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach.

This paper aims to investigate the regime-switching and time-varying dependence between the COVID-19 pandemic and the US stock markets using a Markov-switching framework. It makes two contributions to the empirical literature by showing that: (a) the variations of the daily reported COVID-19 cases and cumulative COVID-19 deaths induced asymmetric lower (left) and upper (right) tail dependence with the stock markets, and its left and right tail dependence exhibited significant time-varying trends; and (b) the left and right tail dependence between the stock markets and the pandemic exhibited significant regime-switching behaviours, with its switching probabilities in the higher tail dependence stage all being greater than in the lower tail dependence stage after 1 December 2019. Moreover, given that there is concurrent but significant financial market reaction to any unexpected emergence of a transmittable respirational disease or a natural calamity, the outcomes have some vital implications to market players and policymakers.

Event studies in international finance research.

Event studies are widely used in finance research to investigate the implications of announcements of corporate initiatives, regulatory changes, or macroeconomic shocks on stock prices. These studies are often used in a single-country setting (usually the U.S.), but little work has yet been conducted in an international context, perhaps due to the complexities inherent in implementing cross-country studies. This paper explores the methodological challenges of conducting event studies in international finance research. We emphasize how scholars should choose an event, select the study period (short vs. long term), estimate abnormal returns, infer statistically whether the event under consideration produces a reliable price reaction, and explore the role of formal and informal institutions in explaining cross-country differences in price reactions. We also provide an extension of event studies to an important but less studied asset class in an international setting - the fixed-income market. We conclude by offering practical recommendations for researchers conducting cross-country finance event studies and identifying opportunities for future research. Given the increasing number of global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the Paris and Trans-Pacific Partnership agreements, we believe our paper is especially timely.

Les études d'événements sont largement utilisées dans la recherche financière pour étudier les implications des annonces d'initiatives d'entreprises, de changements réglementaires ou de chocs macroéconomiques sur les prix des actions. Ces études sont souvent utilisées dans le cadre d'un seul pays (généralement les États-Unis), mais peu de travaux ont encore été menés dans un contexte international, probablement en raison des complexités inhérentes à la mise en oeuvre d'études transnationales. Cet article explore les défis méthodologiques de la conduite d'études d'événements dans la recherche en finance internationale. Nous mettons l'accent sur la manière dont les chercheurs doivent choisir un événement, sélectionner la période d'étude (court ou long terme), estimer les rendements anormaux, déduire statistiquement si l'événement considéré produit une réaction fiable des prix, et explorer le rôle des institutions formelles et informelles dans l'explication des réactions des prix à travers les réactions des prix. Nous proposons également une extension des études d'événements à une classe d'actifs importante mais moins étudiée dans un contexte international - le marché des titres à revenu fixe. Nous concluons en offrant des recommandations pratiques aux chercheurs qui mènent des études d'événements financiers transnationaux et en identifiant les possibilités de recherches futures. Compte tenu du nombre croissant d'événements mondiaux, tels que la pandémie de COVID-19, le Brexit et les accords de Paris et de partenariat transpacifique, nous pensons que notre article est particulièrement opportun.

Los estudios de eventos son ampliamente usados en la investigación financiera para indagar las implicaciones de los anuncios de iniciativas empresariales, cambios regulatorios o choques macroeconómicos en los precios de las acciones. Estos estudios se utilizan a menudo en el marco de un solo país (normalmente EE.UU.), pero todavía se han realizado pocos trabajos en un contexto internacional, quizá debido a las complejidades inherentes a la realización de estudios transfronterizos. Este artículo explora los retos metodológicos de llevar a cabo estudios de eventos en la investigación financiera internacional. Enfatizamos cómo los académicos deben elegir un evento, seleccionar el período de estudio (corto frente a largo plazo), estimar los rendimientos anormales, inferir estadísticamente si el evento en cuestión produce una reacción fiable de los precios, y explorar el papel de las instituciones formales e informales para explicar las diferencias entre países en las reacciones de los precios. También ofrecemos una extensión de los estudios de eventos a una clase de activos importante pero menos estudiada en un entorno internacional: el mercado de renta fija. Concluimos ofreciendo recomendaciones prácticas para los investigadores que realizan estudios de eventos financieros entre países e identificando oportunidades para futuras investigaciones. Dado el creciente número de eventos mundiales, como la pandemia del COVID-19, el Brexit y el Acuerdo de París y el Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico, creemos que nuestro artículo es especialmente oportuno.

Estudos de eventos são amplamente utilizados em pesquisas sobre finanças para investigar as implicações de anúncios de iniciativas corporativas, mudanças regulatórias ou choques macroeconômicos nos preços das ações. Esses estudos são frequentemente usados em um único país (geralmente os EUA), mas pouco trabalho foi realizado em um contexto internacional, talvez devido às complexidades inerentes à implementação de estudos entre países. Este artigo explora os desafios metodológicos na condução de estudos de eventos na pesquisa de finanças internacionais. Enfatizamos como acadêmicos devem escolher um evento, selecionar o período de estudo (curto prazo versus longo prazo), estimar retornos anormais, inferir estatisticamente se o evento em análise produz uma reação de preço confiável e explorar o papel de instituições formais e informais na explicação de diferenças entre países nas reações de preços. Também fornecemos uma extensão dos estudos de eventos para uma classe de ativos importante, mas menos estudada em um cenário internacional ­ o mercado de renda fixa. Concluímos oferecendo recomendações práticas para pesquisadores que realizam estudos de eventos em finanças entre países e identificando oportunidades para pesquisas futuras. Dado o número crescente de eventos globais, como a pandemia de COVID-19, Brexit e os acordos de Paris e parceria Trans-Pacific, acreditamos que nosso artigo é especialmente oportuno.

Connectedness between Defi assets and equity markets during COVID-19: A sector analysis.

This paper explores the dynamic connectedness between Defi assets and sector stock markets focused around the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. For that aim, this research applies the TVP-VAR model, and it also computes the optimal weights and hedge ratios for the Defi assets-sector equity portfolios using the DCC-GARCH model. Our main findings reveal that static connectedness is slightly economy- and sector-dependent. Regarding the dynamic connectedness, as expected, the total spillover index changes over time, showing a cruel impact of the global pandemic declaration. Net spillover indices show relevant differences between the Defi assets and certain sectors (net receivers) and sectors such as industrials, materials and information technology (time-varying net transmitters). Finally, the optimal hedge ratios reveal similar levels of coverage in all the periods analyzed, with slight upturns in the cost of such coverage in the crisis period caused by COVID-19.

Complex network analysis of volatility spillovers between global financial indicators and G20 stock markets.

This paper analyses the dynamic transmission mechanism of volatility spillovers between key global financial indicators and G20 stock markets. To examine volatility spillover relations, we combine a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model with complex network theory. Specifically, we construct a volatility network of international financial markets utilising the spatial connectedness of spillovers (consisting of nodes and edges). The findings show that spillover relations between global variables and G20 markets vary significantly across five identified sub-periods. Notably, networks are much denser in crisis periods compared to non-crisis periods. In comparing two crisis periods, Global Financial Crisis (2008) and COVID-19 Crisis (2020) periods, the network statistics suggest that volatility spillovers in the latter period are more transitive and intense than the former. This suggests that financial volatility spreads more rapidly and directly through key financial indicators to the G20 stock markets. For example, oil and bonds are the largest volatility senders, while the markets of Saudi Arabia, Russia, South Africa, and Brazil are the main volatility receivers. In the former crisis, the source of financial volatility concentrates primarily in the USA, Australia, Canada, and Saudi Arabia, which are the largest volatility senders and receivers. China emerges as generally the least sensitive market to external volatility.