Probability Distribution of Tree Age for the Simple Birth-Death Process, with Applications to Distributions of Number of Ancestral Lineages and Divergence Times for Pairs of Taxa in a Yule Tree.

In this contribution, a general expression is derived for the probability density of the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a simple birth-death tree, a widely used stochastic null-model of biological speciation and extinction, conditioned on the constant birth and death rates and number of extant lineages. This density is contrasted with a previous result which was obtained using a uniform prior for the time of origin. The new distribution is applied to two problems of phylogenetic interest. First, that of the probability of the number of taxa existing at any time in the past in a tree of a known number of extant species, and given birth and death rates, and second, that of determining the TMRCA of two randomly selected taxa in an unobserved tree that is produced by a simple birth-only, or Yule, process. In the latter case, it is assumed that only the rate of bifurcation (speciation) and the size, or number of tips, are known. This is shown to lead to a closed-form analytical expression for the probability distribution of this parameter, which is arrived at based on the known mathematical form of the age distribution of Yule trees of a given size and branching rate, which is derived here de novo, and a similar distribution which additionally is conditioned on tree age. The new distribution is the exact Yule prior for divergence times of pairs of taxa under the stated conditions and is potentially useful in statistical (Bayesian) inference studies of phylogenies.

Phylogeography of Toxoplasma gondii points to a South American origin.

Toxoplasma gondii, a protozoan found ubiquitously in mammals and birds, is the etiologic agent of toxoplasmosis, a disease causing substantial public health burden worldwide, including about 200,000 new cases of congenital toxoplasmosis each year. Clinical severity has been shown to vary across geographical regions, with South America exhibiting the highest burden. Unfortunately, the drivers of these heterogeneities are still poorly understood, and the geographical origin and historical spread of the pathogen worldwide are currently uncertain. A worldwide sample of 168 T. gondii isolates gathered in 13 populations was sequenced for five fragments of genes (140 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 3153bp per isolate). Phylogeny based on Maximum likelihood methods with estimation of the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and geostatistical analyses were performed for inferring the putative origin of T. gondii. We show that extant strains of the pathogen likely evolved from a South American ancestor, around 1.5 million years ago, and reconstruct the subsequent spread of the pathogen worldwide. This emergence is much more recent than the appearance of ancestral T. gondii, believed to have taken place about 11 My ago, and follows the arrival of felids in this part of the world. We posit that an ancestral lineage of T. gondii likely arrived in South America with felids and that the evolution of oral infectivity through carnivorism and the radiation of felids in this region enabled a new strain to outcompete the ancestral lineage and undergo a pandemic radiation.

Is Hepatitis Delta infections important in Brazil?

BACKGROUND: The Hepatitis Delta Virus (HDV) can increase the incidence of fulminant hepatitis. For this infection occurs, the host must also be infected with Hepatitis B Virus. Previous studies demonstrated the endemicity and near exclusivity of this infection in the Amazon region, and as a consequence of the difficulty in accessing this area we used dried blood spots (DBS) in sample collection. The aims of this study were to investigate the presence of recombination, to analyze the epidemiology, ancestry and evolutionary pressures on HDV in Brazil. METHODS: Blood samples from 50 individuals were collected using dried-blood spots (DBS 903, Whatman), and sent via regular mail to Retrovirology Laboratory from Federal University of São Paulo, where the samples were processed. In the analysis the following software were used: PhyML, RDP, BEAST, jModelTest and CODEML. RESULTS: Our results confirm the prevalence of HDV-3 in the Amazon region of Brazil, with the absence of inter-genotypic recombination. It was identified a positive selection in probable epitopes of HDV on B lymphocytes that might indicate that the virus is changing to escape the humoral response of the host. The analysis of the time of the most common ancestor demonstrated the exponential growth of this virus in late 1970s that lasted until 1995, after which it remained constant. It was also observed a probable founder effect in two cities, which demonstrate the need to focus on prevention methods against HBV/HDV infection. CONCLUSION: We confirmed the prevalence of HDV-3 in the Amazon region of Brazil, without inter-genotypic recombination. The analysis of the time of the most common ancestor showed that this infection remain constant in the studied area. Taking into account the probable founder effect established in the cities of Rio Branco and Porto Velho, a focus on preventive methods is recommended against these infections.