Impacts of extreme weather events on microplastic distribution in coastal environments.

Microplastic pollution is a pressing environmental threat to the ecosystem, which can be influenced by varying weather factors. With arising weather extremes in recent years, it is crucial to assess the weather effects on coastal microplastic pollution. In this study, we conducted a year-long baseline survey on beach sediment and surface seawater in Hong Kong, and additional surveys after rainstorm and typhoon events. Our data reveals that microplastic abundance was 5 times higher in wet season over dry season. Yet, the seasonal variation was insignificant when considering only the baseline condition, suggesting the role of extreme weather as the main driver of the seasonal variation in microplastic distribution. Typhoons and rainstorms induced 5.1 to 36.4 times and 1.9 to 11.7 times more microplastics in beach sediment, respectively, and 3.5 to 6.0 times and 2.5 to 4.3 times more microplastics in surface seawater, respectively. The larger microplastic mass in beach sediment and the increased proportion of hard fragments under extreme weather conditions indicate the larger mobility of heavier plastic debris from a wider source. We identified positive correlations between plastic levels and multiple weather factors (including rainfall, wind and tide), suggesting the potential terrestrial inputs of microplastics via surface runoff and wind transport, and the potential redistribution of microplastics from deep to surface sediment via wave agitation. We also identified a strongly positive correlation between macro- and microplastic abundance in beach sediment, suggesting the potential plastic fragmentation under strong wave abrasion, which may intensify the coastal microplastic pollution. This study sheds light on the need for reinforced security of waste management systems to avoid terrestrial plastic inputs under extreme weather forces, as well as the timing of coastal cleanup work in terms of limiting plastic fragmentation and achieving better cleanup efficiency.

Synergies and trade-offs in drought resilience within a multi-level UK food supply chain.

Weather extremes are the biggest challenge for supply chains worldwide, with food supply chains particularly exposed due to agriculture's sensitivity to weather conditions. Whilst attention has been paid to farm-level impacts from, and adaptation to, weather extremes, there remains a need to better understand how different actors along the supply chain suffer, react and adapt to these natural hazards and how their resilience-building strategies affect other actors' and the whole system's resilience. Taking the UK potato supply chain as a case study, this paper analyses the synergies and trade-offs in drought resilience in a multi-level food supply chain. Data from an online survey (87) and interviews with key informants (27) representing potato supply-chain actors (growers, packers, processors, retailers) were used to analyse drought risk perceptions, impacts and coping strategies, long-term resilience measures and further actions to build system resilience. Results suggest that the potato supply chain has increased its resilience to weather extremes due to retailers and packers having a wider geographical spread of supply, an increasing reliance on forward contracts and favouring growers with water security. However, a conceptual framework of resilience-building strategies adopted by supply chain actors shows that these measures are largely designed to reduce their own risk without considering implications for other parts of the chain and the system as a whole. A more integrated approach to promote drought resilience in complex food supply chains that enables improved vertical collaboration and trust between actors is therefore needed.

The impact of cold waves and heat waves on mortality: Evidence from a lower middle-income country.

We estimate the impact of temperature extremes on mortality in Vietnam, using daily data on temperatures and monthly data on mortality during the 2000-2018 period. We find that both cold and heat waves cause higher mortality, particularly among older people and those living in the hot regions in Southern Vietnam. This effect on mortality tends to be smaller in provinces with higher rates of air-conditioning and emigration, and provinces with higher public spending on health. Finally, we estimate economic cost of cold and heat waves using a framework of willingness to pay to avoid deaths, then project the cost to the year 2100 under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.

How Vulnerable Are Patients with COPD to Weather Extremities?-A Pilot Study from Hungary.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most common causes of death globally, with increasing prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD). We aimed to investigate how extreme weather conditions were associated with the number of daily COPD-related emergency visits. We collected data regarding the number of daily emergency department (ED) visits made by patients with COPD in 2017, along with all relevant daily meteorological data for the same year. An analysis of the relationship between the number of COPD-related ED visits and extreme meteorological events was carried out. Extremely low temperatures (OR = 1.767) and dew points (OR = 1.795), extremely high atmospheric pressure (OR = 1.626), a high amount of precipitation (OR = 1.270), and light wind speed (OR = 1.560) were identified as possible risk factors for a higher number of COPD-related ED visits. In contrast, extremely high temperatures (OR = 0.572) and dew points (OR = 0.606) were found to be possible protective factors for COPD-related ED visits. By determining the meteorological risk factors for a high number of COPD-related ED visits, our study may help provide invaluable data for identifying vulnerable patient groups based on weather events, thus making more optimal capacity planning at the ED possible.

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes.

Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79[Formula: see text], Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48[Formula: see text] globally and as much as 4[Formula: see text] in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8[Formula: see text] by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12[Formula: see text], with corresponding increases of 12[Formula: see text] (median) to 24[Formula: see text] (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation.

Health and economic impacts of air pollution induced by weather extremes over the continental U.S.

Extreme weather events may enhance ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, causing additional adverse health effects. This work aims to evaluate the health and associated economic impacts of changes in air quality induced by heat wave, stagnation, and compound extremes under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition is applied to estimate health and related economic impacts of changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 levels due to heat wave, stagnation, and compound extremes over the continental U.S. during past (i.e., 2001-2010) and future (i.e., 2046-2055) decades under the two RCP scenarios. Under the past and future decades, the weather extremes-induced concentration increases may lead to several tens to hundreds O3-related deaths and several hundreds to over ten thousands PM2.5-related deaths annually. High mortalities and morbidities are estimated for populated urban areas with strong spatial heterogeneities. The estimated annual costs for these O3 and PM2.5 related health outcomes are $5.5-12.5 and $48.6-140.7 billion U.S. dollar for mortalities, and $8.9-97.8 and $19.5-112.5 million for morbidities, respectively. Of the extreme events, the estimated O3- and PM2.5-related mortality and morbidity attributed to stagnation are the highest, followed by heat wave or compound extremes. Large increases in heat wave and compound extreme events in the future decade dominate changes in mortality during these two extreme events, whereas population growth dominates changes in mortality during stagnation that is projected to occur less frequently. Projected reductions of anthropogenic emissions under bothRCP scenarios compensate for the increased mortality due to increasedoccurrence for heat wave and compound extremes in the future. These results suggest a need to further reduce air pollutant emissions during weather extremes to minimize the adverse impacts of weather extremes on air quality and human health.

Constructing a meteorological indicator dataset for selected European NUTS 3 regions.

The harmonization of data granularity in spatial and temporal terms is an important pre-step to any econometric and machine learning applications. Researchers, who wish to statistically test hypotheses on the relationship between agro-meteorological and European policy outcomes, often observe that agro-meteorological data is typically stored in gridded and temporally detailed form, while many relevant policy outcomes are only available on an aggregated level. This dataset intends to aid empirical investigations by providing a dataset with monthly meteorological indicators on a European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level 3 (NUTS 3) regional level for 13 countries for the period from 1989 to 2018. The data we provide allows researchers to investigate hypothesis related to weather volatility and the probability of extreme weather events. We created this dataset from the daily data in grids of 25 km x 25 km provided by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. We matched the map with the raw data to a map with the administrative boundaries of European NUTS 3 regions. After appropriately weighting, we calculated the monthly, regional mean, variance and kurtosis of the following variables: maximum, minimum, average air temperature in degrees Centigrade, sum of precipitation in mm and snow depth in cm. We report the covariance between the average temperature and the precipitation as well.

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes.

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.

Cold spell en route delays spring arrival and decreases apparent survival in a long-distance migratory songbird.

BACKGROUND: Adjusting the timing of annual events to gradual changes in environmental conditions is necessary for population viability. However, adaptations to weather extremes are poorly documented in migratory species. Due to their vast seasonal movements, long-distance migrants face unique challenges in responding to changes as they rely on an endogenous circannual rhythm to cue the timing of their migration. Furthermore, the exact mechanisms that explain how environmental factors shape the migration schedules of long-distance migrants are often unknown. RESULTS: Here we show that long-distance migrating semi-collared flycatchers Ficedula semitorquata delayed the last phase of their spring migration and the population suffered low return rates to breeding sites while enduring a severe cold spell en route. We found that the onset of spring migration in Africa and the timing of Sahara crossing were consistent between early and late springs while the arrival at the breeding site depended on spring phenology at stopover areas in each particular year. CONCLUSION: Understanding how environmental stimuli and endogenous circannual rhythms interact can improve predictions of the consequences of climate changes on migratory animals.

Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events.

In boreal spring-to-autumn (May-to-September) 2012 and 2013, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced a large number of severe midlatitude regional weather extremes. Here we show that a considerable part of these extremes were accompanied by highly magnified quasistationary midlatitude planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. We further show that resonance conditions for these planetary waves were, in many cases, present before the onset of high-amplitude wave events, with a lead time up to 2 wk, suggesting that quasiresonant amplification (QRA) of these waves had occurred. Our results support earlier findings of an important role of the QRA mechanism in amplifying planetary waves, favoring recent NH weather extremes.

Impactos de desastres socioambientais em saúde pública: estudos dos casos dos Estados de Santa Catarina em 2008 e Pernambuco em 2010 / /Impacts of socio-environmental disasters on public health: studies of scenarios in the Brazilian states of Santa Catarina in 2008 and Pernambuco in 2010 / /Impactos de los desastres socioambientales en la salud pública: estudio de los casos de los estados brasileños de Santa Catarina en 2008 y Pernambuco en 2010

Eventos como inundações e movimentos de massa podem provocar desastres, afetando amplamente a saúde pública brasileira. Além de mortes, traumas e lesões, podem ocorrer danificação de estações de tratamento de água, postos de saúde e hospitais, comprometimento de equipamentos e estoque de remédios, epidemias e proliferação de doenças, bem como danos psicossociais. Neste artigo, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar características pré e pós-impacto relacionadas à saúde pública, são estudados dois cenários: inundações ocorridas em Santa Catarina, em 2008, e em Pernambuco, em 2010. Procuramos analisar as condições socioambientais e de cobertura de serviços de saúde prévias e os danos pós-impacto em municípios que decretaram estado de calamidade pública. Para caracterizar a vulnerabilidade socioambiental, foram utilizados dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) do Serviço Geológico do Brasil (CPRM), da Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil (Sedec) e do Sistema Único de Saúde (Datasus). Encontramos grandes diferenças entre os dois estados, principalmente nos indicadores sociais, mas os efeitos das inundações foram severos para ambos, incluindo maior número de óbitos em Santa Catarina, estado com alto índice de desenvolvimento humano e menores índices de pobreza. Estes resultados evidenciam a necessidade de inclusão do tema saúde pública em todas as etapas do gerenciamento do risco de desastres...

Events such as floods and landslides can cause disasters that affect Brazilian public health extensively. Impacts include traumas and injuries, damage to water treatment plants and hospitals, disruption of equipment and medicine supply, epidemics and the spread of diseases, as well as lasting psychosocial damage. In this article, we study disaster scenarios in municipalities from two Brazilian states that had declared a state of public calamity as a result of flooding - Santa Catarina (2008) and Pernambuco (2010). The object was to identify and analyze the impacts of these disasters on social and environmental conditions as well as on the coverage of public health. To this purpose, the before and after disaster situation in affected municipalities was analyzed. To characterize socio-environmental vulnerability, we used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM), the National Protection and Civil Defense Secretariat (SEDEC) and the Health Ministry. Although there are expressive differences between the two investigated states, especially in regards to social indicators, both of them suffered strong impacts after floods. Despite a higher human development index and low levels of poverty, Santa Catarina suffered more deaths than Pernambuco. Altogether, results demonstrate the need to include public health issues in all steps of disaster risk management...

Species-rich ecosystems are vulnerable to cascading extinctions in an increasingly variable world.

Global warming leads to increased intensity and frequency of weather extremes. Such increased environmental variability might in turn result in increased variation in the demographic rates of interacting species with potentially important consequences for the dynamics of food webs. Using a theoretical approach, we here explore the response of food webs to a highly variable environment. We investigate how species richness and correlation in the responses of species to environmental fluctuations affect the risk of extinction cascades. We find that the risk of extinction cascades increases with increasing species richness, especially when correlation among species is low. Initial extinctions of primary producer species unleash bottom-up extinction cascades, especially in webs with specialist consumers. In this sense, species-rich ecosystems are less robust to increasing levels of environmental variability than species-poor ones. Our study thus suggests that highly species-rich ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical rainforests might be particularly vulnerable to increased climate variability.