Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption.

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy1-3. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate4-6. Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC7,8, but they rely on models9-11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data2,3,6,7,12,13. Here we show that the release of one ton of CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -US$3 and -US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research7,8, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight14.

Automated pipeline framework for processing of large-scale building energy time series data.

Commercial buildings account for one third of the total electricity consumption in the United States and a significant amount of this energy is wasted. Therefore, there is a need for "virtual" energy audits, to identify energy inefficiencies and their associated savings opportunities using methods that can be non-intrusive and automated for application to large populations of buildings. Here we demonstrate virtual energy audits applied to large populations of buildings' time-series smart-meter data using a systematic approach and a fully automated Building Energy Analytics (BEA) Pipeline that unifies, cleans, stores and analyzes building energy datasets in a non-relational data warehouse for efficient insights and results. This BEA pipeline is based on a custom compute job scheduler for a high performance computing cluster to enable parallel processing of Slurm jobs. Within the analytics pipeline, we introduced a data qualification tool that enhances data quality by fixing common errors, while also detecting abnormalities in a building's daily operation using hierarchical clustering. We analyze the HVAC scheduling of a population of 816 buildings, using this analytics pipeline, as part of a cross-sectional study. With our approach, this sample of 816 buildings is improved in data quality and is efficiently analyzed in 34 minutes, which is 85 times faster than the time taken by a sequential processing. The analytical results for the HVAC operational hours of these buildings show that among 10 building use types, food sales buildings with 17.75 hours of daily HVAC cooling operation are decent targets for HVAC savings. Overall, this analytics pipeline enables the identification of statistically significant results from population based studies of large numbers of building energy time-series datasets with robust results. These types of BEA studies can explore numerous factors impacting building energy efficiency and virtual building energy audits. This approach enables a new generation of data-driven buildings energy analysis at scale.

The Shapley value for a fair division of group discounts for coordinating cooling loads.

We consider a demand response program in which a block of apartments receive a discount from their electricity supplier if they ensure that their aggregate load from air conditioning does not exceed a predetermined threshold. The goal of the participants is to obtain the discount, while ensuring that their individual temperature preferences are also satisfied. As such, the apartments need to collectively optimise their use of air conditioning so as to satisfy these constraints and minimise their costs. Given an optimal cooling profile that secures the discount, the problem that the apartments face then is to divide the total discounted cost in a fair way. To achieve this, we take a coalitional game approach and propose the use of the Shapley value from cooperative game theory, which is the normative payoff division mechanism that offers a unique set of desirable fairness properties. However, applying the Shapley value in this setting presents a novel computational challenge. This is because its calculation requires, as input, the cost of every subset of apartments, which means solving an exponential number of collective optimisations, each of which is a computationally intensive problem. To address this, we propose solving the optimisation problem of each subset suboptimally, to allow for acceptable solutions that require less computation. We show that, due to the linearity property of the Shapley value, if suboptimal costs are used rather than optimal ones, the division of the discount will be fair in the following sense: each apartment is fairly "rewarded" for its contribution to the optimal cost and, at the same time, is fairly "penalised" for its contribution to the discrepancy between the suboptimal and the optimal costs. Importantly, this is achieved without requiring the optimal solutions.

Modeled construction and operating costs of different ventilation systems for lactating dairy cows.

The objectives were to compare capital costs of building and installation of 7 ventilation systems for adult lactating dairy cow housing and evaluate the energy use and operating cost between systems. A cost model comprising stochastic and parametric modules was created to estimate the number of fans operating each day based on temperature set points; annual profiles of daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures; ramping functions to transition between seasons; and weather data from 7 locations in the United States. Costs were described as US$ per stall per year and operating costs as US$ (kW·h) per stall per year. Building costs amoritized over 10 yr ranged from $246 to $318, where a 16-row cross-ventilated design had the minimum cost and a hybrid design incorporating elements of tunnel and natural ventilation had the maximum cost. Lowering the summer temperature set point from 22.2 to 18.0°C to potentially improve heat abatement for high-producing cows increased cost by $10.10 (101.0 kW·h). On average, an exponential ramping function for transitioning between seasons cost $55.40 (554 kW·h) compared with $61.40 (614 kW·h) for a linear function. A tunnel barn ranged from $79.40 (794 kW·h) to $212.30 (2123 kW·h), and a natural design ranged from $32.60 (326 kW·h) to $81.80 (818 kW·h) in operating costs due to fan selection alone. Cross-ventilated barns benefitted from economies of scale and had similar operating costs as naturally ventilated barns in larger facilities. On average, mechanical systems cost twice as much to operate as natural systems, and operating costs in hotter US climates were approximately double those in milder climates. Selecting a fan with low energy efficiency can increase the operating cost of any ventilation system approximately 2-fold, making fan choice a critical design element.

Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change negatively impacts human health through heat stress and exposure to worsened air pollution, amongst other pathways. Indoor use of air conditioning can be an effective strategy to reduce heat exposure. However, increased air conditioning use increases emissions of air pollutants from power plants, in turn worsening air quality and human health impacts. We used an interdisciplinary linked model system to quantify the impacts of heat-driven adaptation through building cooling demand on air-quality-related health outcomes in a representative mid-century climate scenario. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a modeling system that included downscaling historical and future climate data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulating building electricity demand using the Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS), simulating power sector production and emissions using MyPower, simulating ambient air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and calculating the incidence of adverse health outcomes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We performed simulations for a representative present-day climate scenario and 2 representative mid-century climate scenarios, with and without exacerbated power sector emissions from adaptation in building energy use. We find that by mid-century, climate change alone can increase fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations by 58.6% (2.50 µg/m3) and ozone (O3) by 14.9% (8.06 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) for the month of July. A larger change is found when comparing the present day to the combined impact of climate change and increased building energy use, where PM2.5 increases 61.1% (2.60 µg/m3) and O3 increases 15.9% (8.64 ppbv). Therefore, 3.8% of the total increase in PM2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O3 is attributable to adaptive behavior (extra air conditioning use). Health impacts assessment finds that for a mid-century climate change scenario (with adaptation), annual PM2.5-related adult mortality increases by 13,547 deaths (14 concentration-response functions with mean incidence range of 1,320 to 26,481, approximately US$126 billion cost) and annual O3-related adult mortality increases by 3,514 deaths (3 functions with mean incidence range of 2,175 to 4,920, approximately US$32.5 billion cost), calculated as a 3-month summer estimate based on July modeling. Air conditioning adaptation accounts for 654 (range of 87 to 1,245) of the PM2.5-related deaths (approximately US$6 billion cost, a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 (range of 198 to 438) of the O3-related deaths (approximately US$3 billion cost, an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone). Limitations of this study include modeling only a single month, based on 1 model-year of future climate simulations. As a result, we do not project the future, but rather describe the potential damages from interactions arising between climate, energy use, and air quality. CONCLUSIONS: This study examines the contribution of future air-pollution-related health damages that are caused by the power sector through heat-driven air conditioning adaptation in buildings. Results show that without intervention, approximately 5%-9% of exacerbated air-pollution-related mortality will be due to increases in power sector emissions from heat-driven building electricity demand. This analysis highlights the need for cleaner energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy conservation to meet our growing dependence on building cooling systems and simultaneously mitigate climate change.

Minimising the risk of Mycobacterium chimaera infection during cardiopulmonary bypass by the removal of heater-cooler units from the operating room.

INTRODUCTION: Mycobacterium chimaera ( M. chimaera) is a recently characterised bacterium that can cause life-threatening infections in small numbers of patients who undergo cardiopulmonary bypass during cardiac surgery. The likely mode of transmission is thought to occur through aerosolisation from contaminated water reservoirs. The airborne bacteria then contaminate the surgical field, leading to an infection months or even years later. The preferred practical solution to disrupt the transmission of these airborne bacteria to the patient is to remove the heater-cooler units (HCUs) from the operating room (OR). We describe a process of achieving this in order to provide information to guide other institutions who wish to do a similar thing. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team was assembled to work on the project. The planning phase involved trialling different OR layouts and simulating the alterations in the HCU circuit function. The changes to the OR were made over a weekend to minimise disruption to the operating schedule. RESULTS: The HCU was moved to the dirty utility room adjacent to the OR. Standard operating procedures (SOP) and risk assessments were made to enable this to be used for a dual purpose. One of the ORs was reconfigured to allow the cardiopulmonary bypass machine to be located close to the HCU in the dirty utility room. The total cost of the alterations was £6,158. Although we have provided a physical barrier to interrupt patient exposure to aerosolised M. chimaera from HCUs, we continue to perform cultures and decontamination as per the national recommendations. The SOP was designed to be auditable to ensure compliance with the protocols. CONCLUSIONS: We show a method by which the HCU can be removed from the OR in a relatively low-cost, straightforward and practical manner.

A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand.

Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.

An innovative HVAC control system: Implementation and testing in a vehicular cabin.

Personal vehicles undergo rapid development in every imaginable way. However, a concept of managing a cabin thermal environment remains unchanged for decades. The only major improvement has been an automatic HVAC controller with one user's input - temperature. In this case, the temperature is often deceiving because of thermally asymmetric and dynamic nature of the cabins. As a result, the effects of convection and radiation on passengers are not captured in detail what also reduces the potential to meet thermal comfort expectations. Advanced methodologies are available to assess the cabin environment in a fine resolution (e.g. ISO 14505:2006), but these are used mostly in laboratory conditions. The novel idea of this work is to integrate equivalent temperature sensors into a vehicular cabin in proximity of an occupant. Spatial distribution of the sensors is expected to provide detailed information about the local environment that can be used for personalised, comfort driven HVAC control. The focus of the work is to compare results given by the implemented system and a Newton type thermal manikin. Three different ambient settings were examined in a climate chamber. Finally, the results were compared and a good match of equivalent temperatures was found.

Cost-benefit analysis of different air change rates in an operating room environment.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals face growing pressure to meet the dual but often competing goals of providing a safe environment while controlling operating costs. Evidence-based data are needed to provide insight for facility management practices to support these goals. METHODS: The quality of the air in 3 operating rooms was measured at different ventilation rates. The energy cost to provide the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning to the rooms was estimated to provide a cost-benefit comparison of the effectiveness of different ventilation rates currently used in the health care industry. RESULTS: Simply increasing air change rates in the operating rooms tested did not necessarily provide an overall cleaner environment, but did substantially increase energy consumption and costs. Additionally, and unexpectedly, significant differences in microbial load and air velocity were detected between the sterile fields and back instrument tables. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the ventilation rates in operating rooms in an effort to improve clinical outcomes and potentially reduce surgical site infections does not necessarily provide cleaner air, but does typically increase operating costs. Efficient distribution or management of the air can improve quality indicators and potentially reduce the number of air changes required. Measurable environmental quality indicators could be used in lieu of or in addition to air change rate requirements to optimize cost and quality for an operating room and other critical environments.

Effectiveness and cost of reducing particle-related mortality with particle filtration.

This study evaluates the mortality-related benefits and costs of improvements in particle filtration in U.S. homes and commercial buildings based on models with empirical inputs. The models account for time spent in various environments as well as activity levels and associated breathing rates. The scenarios evaluated include improvements in filter efficiencies in both forced-air heating and cooling systems of homes and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems of workplaces as well as use of portable air cleaners in homes. The predicted reductions in mortality range from approximately 0.25 to 2.4 per 10 000 population. The largest reductions in mortality were from interventions with continuously operating portable air cleaners in homes because, given our scenarios, these portable air cleaners with HEPA filters most reduced particle exposures. For some interventions, predicted annual mortality-related economic benefits exceed $1000 per person. Economic benefits always exceed costs with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from approximately 3.9 to 133. Restricting interventions to homes of the elderly further increases the mortality reductions per unit population and the benefit-to-cost ratios.

Benefit-cost analysis of commercially available activated carbon filters for indoor ozone removal in single-family homes.

This study involved the development of a model for evaluating the potential costs and benefits of ozone control by activated carbon filtration in single-family homes. The modeling effort included the prediction of indoor ozone with and without activated carbon filtration in the HVAC system. As one application, the model was used to predict benefit-to-cost ratios for single-family homes in 12 American cities in five different climate zones. Health benefits were evaluated using disability-adjusted life-years and included city-specific age demographics for each simulation. Costs of commercially available activated carbon filters included capital cost differences when compared to conventional HVAC filters of similar particle removal efficiency, energy penalties due to additional pressure drop, and regional utility rates. The average indoor ozone removal effectiveness ranged from 4 to 20% across the 12 target cities and was largely limited by HVAC system operation time. For the parameters selected in this study, the mean predicted benefit-to-cost ratios for 1-inch filters were >1.0 in 10 of the 12 cities. The benefits of residential activated carbon filters were greatest in cities with high seasonal ozone and HVAC usage, suggesting the importance of targeting such conditions for activated carbon filter applications.

Economic, Environmental and Health Implications of Enhanced Ventilation in Office Buildings.

INTRODUCTION: Current building ventilation standards are based on acceptable minimums. Three decades of research demonstrates the human health benefits of increased ventilation above these minimums. Recent research also shows the benefits on human decision-making performance in office workers, which translates to increased productivity. However, adoption of enhanced ventilation strategies is lagging. We sought to evaluate two of the perceived potential barriers to more widespread adoption-Economic and environmental costs. METHODS: We estimated the energy consumption and associated per building occupant costs for office buildings in seven U.S. cities, representing different climate zones for three ventilation scenarios (standard practice (20 cfm/person), 30% enhanced ventilation, and 40 cfm/person) and four different heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system strategies (Variable Air Volume (VAV) with reheat and a Fan Coil Unit (FCU), both with and without an energy recovery ventilator). We also estimated emissions of greenhouse gases associated with this increased energy usage, and, for comparison, converted this to the equivalent number of vehicles using greenhouse gas equivalencies. Lastly, we paired results from our previous research on cognitive function and ventilation with labor statistics to estimate the economic benefit of increased productivity associated with increasing ventilation rates. RESULTS: Doubling the ventilation rate from the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers minimum cost less than $40 per person per year in all climate zones investigated. Using an energy recovery ventilation system significantly reduced energy costs, and in some scenarios led to a net savings. At the highest ventilation rate, adding an ERV essentially neutralized the environmental impact of enhanced ventilation (0.03 additional cars on the road per building across all cities). The same change in ventilation improved the performance of workers by 8%, equivalent to a $6500 increase in employee productivity each year. Reduced absenteeism and improved health are also seen with enhanced ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: The health benefits associated with enhanced ventilation rates far exceed the per-person energy costs relative to salary costs. Environmental impacts can be mitigated at regional, building, and individual-level scales through the transition to renewable energy sources, adoption of energy efficient systems and ventilation strategies, and promotion of other sustainable policies.

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Energy and cost associated with ventilating office buildings in a tropical climate.

Providing sufficient amounts of outdoor air to occupants is a critical building function for supporting occupant health, well-being and productivity. In tropical climates, high ventilation rates require substantial amounts of energy to cool and dehumidify supply air. This study evaluates the energy consumption and associated cost for thermally conditioning outdoor air provided for building ventilation in tropical climates, considering Singapore as an example locale. We investigated the influence on energy consumption and cost of the following factors: outdoor air temperature and humidity, ventilation rate (L/s per person), indoor air temperature and humidity, air conditioning system coefficient of performance (COP), and cost of electricity. Results show that dehumidification of outdoor air accounts for more than 80% of the energy needed for building ventilation in Singapore's tropical climate. Improved system performance and/or a small increase in the indoor temperature set point would permit relatively large ventilation rates (such as 25 L/s per person) at modest or no cost increment. Overall, even in a thermally demanding tropical climate, the energy cost associated with increasing ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person is less than 1% of the wages of an office worker in an advanced economy like Singapore's. This result implies that the benefits of increasing outdoor air ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person--which is suggested to provide for productivity increases, lower sick building syndrome symptom prevalence, and reduced sick leave--can be much larger than the incremental cost of ventilation.

Smart HVAC control in IoT: energy consumption minimization with user comfort constraints.

Smart grid is one of the main applications of the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm. Within this context, this paper addresses the efficient energy consumption management of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in smart grids with variable energy price. To that end, first, we propose an energy scheduling method that minimizes the energy consumption cost for a particular time interval, taking into account the energy price and a set of comfort constraints, that is, a range of temperatures according to user's preferences for a given room. Then, we propose an energy scheduler where the user may select to relax the temperature constraints to save more energy. Moreover, thanks to the IoT paradigm, the user may interact remotely with the HVAC control system. In particular, the user may decide remotely the temperature of comfort, while the temperature and energy consumption information is sent through Internet and displayed at the end user's device. The proposed algorithms have been implemented in a real testbed, highlighting the potential gains that can be achieved in terms of both energy and cost.

Effect of fee-for-service air-conditioning management in balancing thermal comfort and energy usage.

Balancing thermal comfort with the requirement of energy conservation presents a challenge in hot and humid areas where air-conditioning (AC) is frequently used in cooling indoor air. A field survey was conducted in Taiwan to demonstrate the adaptive behaviors of occupants in relation to the use of fans and AC in a school building employing mixed-mode ventilation where AC use was managed under a fee-for-service mechanism. The patterns of using windows, fans, and AC as well as the perceptions of students toward the thermal environment were examined. The results of thermal perception evaluation in relation to the indoor thermal conditions were compared to the levels of thermal comfort predicted by the adaptive models described in the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers Standard 55 and EN 15251 and to that of a local model for evaluating thermal adaption in naturally ventilated buildings. A thermal comfort-driven adaptive behavior model was established to illustrate the probability of fans/AC use at specific temperature and compared to the temperature threshold approach to illustrate the potential energy saving the fee-for-service mechanism provided. The findings of this study may be applied as a reference for regulating the operation of AC in school buildings of subtropical regions.

Hospital keeps cool and cuts its costs.

Energy usage--particularly electricity--in hospitals is a hot topic, and the sector is under increasing pressure to reduce load and carbon emissions. The cost of 'going green' can, however, be high, and many hospitals shy away from more costly energy-efficient solutions, instead selecting cheaper options to suit the short term. One Hampshire healthcare facility, however, bucked the trend when selecting new chilled water plant, thanks to the advice and expertise of chartered consulting engineers, Henderson Green. Examining whether other hospitals should follow suit, managing director, Russ Pitman, explains 'why considering the bigger picture perspective does pay off'.