Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform.

Importance: Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. Objective: To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Exposure: Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Results: Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Conclusions and Relevance: Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.

Historical Redlining and Present-Day Nonsuicide Firearm Fatalities.

BACKGROUND: Redlining began in the 1930s with the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC); this discriminatory practice limited mortgage availability and reinforced concentrated poverty that still exists today. It is important to understand the potential health implications of this federally sanctioned segregation. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between historical redlining policies and present-day nonsuicide firearm fatalities. DESIGN: Maps from the HOLC were overlaid with incidence of nonsuicide firearm fatalities from 2014 to 2022. A multilevel negative binomial regression model tested the association between modern-day firearm fatalities and HOLC historical grading (A ["best"] to D ["hazardous"]), controlling for year, HOLC area-level demographics, and state-level factors as fixed effects and a random intercept for city. Incidence rates (IRs) per 100 000 persons, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and adjusted IRRs (aIRRs) for each HOLC grade were estimated using A-rated areas as the reference. SETTING: 202 cities with areas graded by the HOLC in the 1930s. PARTICIPANTS: Population of the 8597 areas assessed by the HOLC. MEASUREMENTS: Nonsuicide firearm fatalities. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2022, a total of 41 428 nonsuicide firearm fatalities occurred in HOLC-graded areas. The firearm fatality rate increased as the HOLC grade progressed from A to D. In A-graded areas, the IR was 3.78 (95% CI, 3.52 to 4.05) per 100 000 persons per year. In B-graded areas, the IR, IRR, and aIRR relative to A areas were 7.43 (CI, 7.24 to 7.62) per 100 000 persons per year, 2.12 (CI, 1.94 to 2.32), and 1.42 (CI, 1.30 to 1.54), respectively. In C-graded areas, these values were 11.24 (CI, 11.08 to 11.40) per 100 000 persons per year, 3.78 (CI, 3.47 to 4.12), and 1.90 (CI, 1.75 to 2.07), respectively. In D-graded areas, these values were 16.26 (CI, 16.01 to 16.52) per 100 000 persons per year, 5.51 (CI, 5.05 to 6.02), and 2.07 (CI, 1.90 to 2.25), respectively. LIMITATION: The Gun Violence Archive relies on media coverage and police reports. CONCLUSION: Discriminatory redlining policies from 80 years ago are associated with nonsuicide firearm fatalities today. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Fred Lovejoy Housestaff Research and Education Fund.

State-Level Firearm Laws and Firearm Homicide in US Cities: Heterogenous Associations by City Characteristics.

Despite well-studied associations of state firearm laws with lower state- and county-level firearm homicide, there is a shortage of studies investigating differences in the effects of distinct state firearm law categories on various cities within the same state using identical methods. We examined associations of 5 categories of state firearm laws-pertaining to buyers, dealers, domestic violence, gun type/trafficking, and possession-with city-level firearm homicide, and then tested differential associations by city characteristics. City-level panel data on firearm homicide cases of 78 major cities from 2010 to 2020 was assessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System. We modeled log-transformed firearm homicide rates as a function of firearm law scores, city, state, and year fixed effects, along with time-varying city-level confounders. We considered effect measure modification by poverty, unemployment, vacant housing, and income inequality. A one z-score increase in state gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer law scores was associated with 25% (95% confidence interval [CI]:-0.37,-0.1), 19% (95% CI:-0.29,-0.07), and 17% (95% CI:-0.28, -0.4) lower firearm homicide rates, respectively. Protective associations were less pronounced in cities with high unemployment and high housing vacancy, but more pronounced in cities with high income inequality. In large US cities, state-level gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer laws were associated with lower firearm homicide rates, but buyers and domestic violence laws were not. State firearm laws may have differential effects on firearm homicides based on city characteristics, and city-wide policies to enhance socioeconomic drivers may add benefits of firearm laws.

The Association Between State Minimum Wage and Firearm Homicides, 2000-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Recent research has indicated an association between both poverty and income inequality and firearm homicides. Increased minimum wages may serve as a strategy for reducing firearm violence by increasing economic security among workers earning low wages and reducing the number of families living in poverty. This study aimed to examine the association between state minimum wage and firearm homicides in the U.S. between 2000 and 2020. METHODS: State minimum wage, obtained from Temple's Law Atlas and augmented by legal research, was conceptualized using the Kaitz Index. State-level homicide counts were obtained from 2000 to 2020 multiple-cause-of death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Log-linear regressions were conducted to model the associations between state minimum wage and firearm homicides, stratifying by demographic groups. Analyses were conducted in 2023. RESULTS: A 1% point increase in a state's Kaitz Index was associated with a 1.3% (95% CI: -2.1% to -0.5%) decrease in a state's firearm homicide rate. When interacted with quartile of firearm ownership, the Kaitz Index was associated with decreases in firearm homicide in all except the lowest quartile. These findings were largely consistent across stratifications. CONCLUSIONS: Changing a state's minimum wage, whereby a full-time minimum wage worker's salary is closer to a state's median income, may be an option for reducing firearm homicides.

Trends in Legal Firearm Transactions: A Possible Protective Role of Gun Law Strength.

INTRODUCTION: The United States (US) holds the highest personal firearm ownership among industrialized nations, with implications for firearm-related deaths tied to increased per capita gun ownership and varying gun laws. This study examines the influence of gun law strength on legal firearm transactions, positing a correlation between stronger laws and reduced transactions. The analysis, focused on the stress-laden COVID-19 pandemic, evaluates handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2018-2019. METHODS: The Giffords Gun Law scorecard categorized states into the top 25 "strong" and bottom 25 "weak" gun law groups. Multivariate linear regressions assessed the association between strong gun law states and monthly National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data from 2018 to 2021. The study queried NICS for handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions, comparing median monthly transactions in 2018 and 2019 to 2020 and 2018-2020 to 2021. RESULTS: When evaluating gun law strength through multivariate linear regression models, stronger gun law states had fewer monthly NICS transactions for handguns, long guns, and multiple guns in 2020 and 2021 versus all comparison years (all P < .05). However, from 2018-2019 to 2020 and 2018-2020 to 2021, median monthly NICS transactions per 100,000 people for all gun types increased (all P < .05). CONCLUSION: Stricter gun laws correlated with decreased firearm transactions in stronger law states, yet handgun, long gun, and multiple gun transactions increased during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Therefore, strengthening firearm legislation may be protective against the proliferation of firearms, which warrants further research.

Promoting Firearm Injury Prevention and Advocacy as Pediatric Surgeons: A Call to Action From the APSA/AAP Advocacy Committee.

Firearm injuries have become the leading cause of death among American children. Here we review the scope of the problem, and the pivotal role pediatric surgeons have in preventing pediatric firearm injury. Specific methods for screening and counseling are reviewed, as well as how to overcome barriers. Community and hospital resources as well as organizational efforts are discussed. Finally, a path for surgeon advocacy is outlined as is a call to action for the pediatric surgeon, as we are uniquely poised to identify pediatric patients and deliver timely interventions to reduce the impact of firearm violence. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV.

Effects of Comprehensive Background-Check Policies on Firearm Fatalities in 4 States.

Despite promising results from individual-level studies, state-level studies of the effectiveness of comprehensive background-check (CBC) policies in reducing firearm fatalities have yielded null results in multiple states. These prior studies focused on CBC laws adopted in the 1990s, when record keeping was far less complete. We estimated the effect of the implementation of CBC policies on state-level firearm homicide and suicide rates in states implementing CBC policies from 2013 to 2015 (Colorado, Delaware, Oregon, and Washington). We compared age-adjusted firearm homicide and suicide rates, measured annually from 15 years prior to policy implementation until 2019, in each treated state to rates in control groups constructed using the synthetic control group method. Differences in firearm homicide rates for Colorado, Oregon, and Washington post treatment were all small (0.09 to 0.18 per 100,000 residents per year) and not well distinguished from natural variation. Oregon had on average 0.80 per 100,000 fewer firearm suicides per year than did synthetic Oregon post treatment. However, these results were inconsistent across modeling approaches and not well distinguished from natural variation. Our models produced poor fit for Delaware. Coupled with previous null results from Indiana, California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee, the present results suggest that extending background check requirements to private transfers alone and implementing these policies as is currently done is not sufficient to achieve significant state-level reductions in firearm fatalities.

Restrictive Firearm Laws and Firearm-Related Suicide.

BACKGROUND: There were 23,854 suicides by firearms in 2017 in the US, accounting for 60% of all gun deaths. Studying firearm-related mortalities is vital for reducing preventable gun deaths. This study aims to determine the association between state-level presence of restrictive firearm laws and suicide rates with firearms. STUDY DESIGN: This ecological study used data from the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research on decedents older than 18 years who died from intentional self-harm with firearms between 2009 and 2018. Exposures of interest were state-level restrictive firearm laws: background checks on private sales, mandatory waiting periods, and prohibited possession for domestic violence restraining orders or mental health red flags. Outcomes were rates of suicide with firearms per 100,000 persons over the 10-year period within each state. Welch's t -tests compared mean mortality rates in exposed and unexposed states. RESULTS: There were 208,621 deaths from intentional self-harm with firearms from 2009 to 2018. States with background checks, mandatory waiting periods, and prohibited possession were associated with lower suicide rates for all firearm types compared with states without these laws (p < 0.05). Only states with background checks and mandatory waiting periods were associated with lower suicide rates by handguns and large firearms (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Background checks and mandatory waiting periods correlated with fewer suicides by all firearms and specific firearm types. This reduction could be due to firearm laws directly preventing people from accessing guns or existing concurrently with other suicide prevention measures. More research should be directed to understanding how firearm laws can help reduce suicide rates.

Child Access Prevention Laws and Non-Hispanic Black Youth Firearm Mortality.

Firearm injuries are the leading cause of death for youths 19 and younger in general and the third leading cause of death for non-Hispanic Black youths. Child Access Prevention (CAP) laws have been explored concerning their impact on firearm mortality reduction among heterogenous groups of youth, but not specifically among non-Hispanic Black youths. We analyzed data related to non-Hispanic Black youth firearm mortality, non-Hispanic Black poverty rates, firearm dealer density, and CAP laws for each state to ascertain the impact of CAP laws from 2015 to 2019. During the study period, a total of 6778 non-Hispanic Black youths died due to firearm trauma with the leading causes of death being homicides (85.8%); mostly seen among males (96%), and in the South (53.2%). When compared by CAP laws, the states with the strongest laws had statistically significantly lower rates of firearm mortality than states with the weakest laws. After adjusting for state poverty and firearm dealer density, the differences were not statistically significant but still, stronger CAP laws were associated with lower rates of firearm mortality among non-Hispanic Black youth. CAP laws alone can have a modest impact on non-Hispanic Black youth firearm mortality. To adequately reduce firearm mortality among non-Hispanic Black youths, the state and local governments should, along with CAP laws, enact policies to reduce poverty, crime, access to firearms by criminals, and neighborhood dysfunction among non-Hispanic Black communities.

Regulating Assault Weapons and Large-Capacity Magazines for Ammunition.

This Viewpoint discusses the history and current status of assault weapons bans in the US, provides evidence of the potential effectiveness of a US ban and information regarding the Australian ban, and explores potential next steps.

State Firearm Laws and Firearm-Related Mortality and Morbidity.

This Viewpoint highlights the challenges to passing federal legislation that limits gun ownership and accessibility and summarizes some of the state laws used to successfully lower rates of firearm-related death and injury.

The Supreme Court Expands Second Amendment Rights as the Nation Experiences Historic Levels of Firearms Violence.

This Viewpoint discusses the recent Supreme Court decision declaring a broad right to carry firearms in public and offers a public health strategy for firearms safety laws.

Examining the Impact of Firearm Safety Laws on Suicides.

This Medical News feature discusses what's known about the impact of firearm safety laws on suicide rates.