The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations.

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population's minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations' relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

Demography, not inheritance, drives phenotypic change in hunted bighorn sheep.

Selective harvest, such as trophy hunting, can shift the distribution of a quantitative character such as body size. If the targeted character is heritable, then there will be an evolutionary response to selection, and where the trait is not, then any response will be plastic or demographic. Identifying the relative contributions of these different mechanisms is a major challenge in wildlife conservation. New mathematical approaches can provide insight not previously available. Here we develop a size- and age-based two-sex integral projection model based on individual-based data from a long-term study of hunted bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) at Ram Mountain, Canada. We simulate the effect of trophy hunting on body size and find that the inheritance of body mass is weak and that any perceived decline in body mass of the bighorn population is largely attributable to demographic change and environmental factors. To our knowledge, this work provides the first use of two-sex integral projection models to investigate the potential eco-evolutionary consequences of selective harvest.

Sexually antagonistic association between paternal phenotype and offspring viability reinforces total selection on a sexually selected trait.

The evolution of conspicuous sexually selected traits, such as horns or antlers, has fascinated biologists for more than a century. Elaborate traits can only evolve if they substantially increase reproduction, because they probably incur survival costs to the bearer. Total selection on these traits, however, includes sexual selection on sires and viability selection on offspring and can be influenced by changes in each of these components. Non-random associations between paternal phenotype and offspring viability may thus affect total selection on sexually selected traits. Long-term data on wild bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) provide the first evidence in nature that association between paternal phenotype and lamb viability strengthens total selection on horn size of adult rams, a sexually selected trait. The association of paternal horn length and offspring viability was sexually antagonistic: long-horned males sired sons with high viability but daughters of low viability. These results shed new light on the evolutionary dynamics of an iconic sexually selected trait and have important implications for sustainable wildlife management.

Age-dependent relationship between horn growth and survival in wild sheep.

1. Trade-offs in resource allocation underline the evolution of life-history traits but their expression is frequently challenged by empirical findings. In large herbivores, males with large antlers or horns typically have high mating success. The fitness costs of large horns or antlers have rarely been quantified although they are controversial. 2. Here, using detailed longitudinal data on n = 172 bighorn (Ovis canadensis, Shaw) and the capture-mark-recapture methodology, we tested whether early horn growth leads to a survival cost in rams ('trade-off' hypothesis) or if males that can afford rapid horn growth survive better than males of lower phenotypic quality ('phenotypic quality' hypothesis). We also quantified how hunting increased survival costs of bearing large horns. 3. We found an age-specific relationship between horn growth and survival. In all age classes, natural survival was either weakly related to (lambs, adult rams) or positively associated (yearling rams) with early horn growth. Hunting mortality was markedly different from natural mortality of bighorn rams, leading to an artificial negative association between early horn growth and survival. Beginning at age 4, the yearly harvest rate ranged from 12% for males with the smallest horns up to more than 40% for males with the largest horns. 4. Growing large horns early in life is not related to any consistent survival costs, hence supporting the phenotypic quality hypothesis in males of a dimorphic and polygynous large herbivores. Rapid horn growth early in life is, however, strongly counter selected by trophy hunting. We suggest that horn size is a very poor index of reproductive effort and that males modulate their mating activities and energy allocation to horn growth to limit its impact on survival.

Never too late? Consequences of late birthdate for mass and survival of bighorn lambs.

In strongly seasonal environments, the timing of birth can have important fitness consequences. We investigated which factors affect parturition date and how birthdate interacts with sex, maternal characteristics and environmental variables to affect the growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) lambs in a marked population in Alberta. Over 14 years, the estimated birthdate of 216 lambs ranged from 21 May to 18 July. Parturition date was heritable and genetically correlated with maternal mass the previous fall. Weaning a lamb delayed parturition the following year by about 7 days. Birthdate did not affect summer growth rate, but late-born lambs were lighter in mid September (the approximate time of weaning) than early-born ones. Birthdate did not affect survival to weaning, but late birth decreased survival to 1 year for male lambs. Forage quality, measured by fecal crude protein, did not affect survival to 1 year. Once we accounted for lamb mass in mid September, birthdate no longer affected the probability of survival, suggesting that late birth decreased survival by shortening a lamb's growing season. Because there was no compensatory summer growth, late-born lambs were smaller than early-born ones at the onset of winter. Our data highlight the importance of birthdate on life history traits and suggest that resource scarcity had more severe consequences for juvenile males than for females.