Study on the development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population ageing in 31 central cities in China.

Background: Population ageing is inseparable from technological innovation, social progress and the development of human civilization, and constitutes a new element in the development of contemporary human history. Objective: To dynamically analyses the developmental, structural and growth characteristics of population ageing in 31 provincial capitals and municipalities in China, using the data of the fifth national census in 2000 and the seventh national census in 2020. Methods: The development characteristics and spatial and temporal patterns of population aging in the 31 cities were measured using the population aging index growth model, Theil's index, coefficient of variation, population aging index and other analytical methods. Results: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the population aging rate of the 31 central cities generally increased, and the population aging level of the cities showed the characteristics of "East-Central-Northeast-West" to "Northeast-East-Central-West" decreasing. (2) Regional differences in the ratio of old to young are relatively high, while regional differences in the level of population ageing are relatively small. The level of population ageing is classified with the indicators of size structure, family structure and age structure in the first and third quadrants, and with the geographic concentration rate in the second and fourth quadrants. (3) China's population ageing has a T-shaped spatial distribution characteristic pointing along the coast - along the Yangtze Rivers. Conclusion: The 31 central cities are the center of gravity of China's economy and have strong economic power in dealing with the challenges of population ageing, but how to make population ageing compatible with the economy and society, and then promote sustainable population development, is a topic that needs further attention in the study.

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

Dams trigger exponential population declines of migratory fish.

The impact of dams on global migratory fish stocks is a major challenge and remains seriously underestimated. China has initiated a dozen fish rescue programs for the dams on the Yangtze River, focusing on five flagship species-Chinese sturgeon, Chinese paddlefish, Yangtze sturgeon, Chinese sucker, and Coreius guichenoti. Despite 40 years of effort, these five fishes are on the verge of extinction. Here, we propose an analytical tool that includes a framework of fish migration taxonomy and six life cycle models, the concepts of invalid stock and the dam impact coefficient, and a simplified population model. We then clarify the migration patterns and life cycles of these fishes and show that the Yangtze dams have severely disrupted the life cycle integrity of these species, causing seven types of invalid stocks and their exponential population declines. Last, we discuss six scientific misjudgments underpinning the fish rescue programs and recommend reforms to China's fish rescue strategy.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish.

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Population dynamics of dominant dinoflagellate species in the North Sea: in situ growth rates, photosynthetic potential, and losses due to parasitism.

In the North Sea, Tripos and Dinophysis are commonly occurring mixotrophic planktonic dinoflagellate genera. In order to understand their bloom dynamics, an occurring bloom dominated by T. furca and D. norvegica was followed for several days. High cell abundances of these species were located to estimate: in situ growth rates from cell cycle analyses, depth distributions, growth rates sustained by photosynthesis, and parasite infection prevalence in all T. furca, T. fusus, D. norvegica and D. acuminata. Cell abundances were over 10000 cells L-1 for T. furca and up to 18000 cells L-1 for D. norvegica. Cells accumulated between 15-25 m depth and presented low specific in situ growth rates of 0.04-0.15 d-1 for T. furca and 0.02-0.16 d-1 for D. norvegica. Photosynthesis could sustain growth rates of 0.01-0.18 d-1 for T. furca and 0.02 to 0.14 d-1 for D. norvegica, suggesting that these species were relying mainly on photosynthesis. Parasite infections where generally low, with occasional high prevalence in D. norvegica (by Parvilucifera sp.) and T. fusus (by Amoebophrya sp.), while both parasites showed comparable prevalence in D. acuminata, which could offset in situ growth rates by parasite-induced host mortality. The restructuring effect of parasites on dinoflagellate blooms is often overlooked and this study elucidates their effect to cell abundances and their growth at the final stages of a bloom.

Using neural ordinary differential equations to predict complex ecological dynamics from population density data.

Simple models have been used to describe ecological processes for over a century. However, the complexity of ecological systems makes simple models subject to modelling bias due to simplifying assumptions or unaccounted factors, limiting their predictive power. Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have surged as a machine-learning algorithm that preserves the dynamic nature of the data (Chen et al. 2018 Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst.). Although preserving the dynamics in the data is an advantage, the question of how NODEs perform as a forecasting tool of ecological communities is unanswered. Here, we explore this question using simulated time series of competing species in a time-varying environment. We find that NODEs provide more precise forecasts than autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We also find that untuned NODEs have a similar forecasting accuracy to untuned long-short term memory neural networks and both are outperformed in accuracy and precision by empirical dynamical modelling . However, we also find NODEs generally outperform all other methods when evaluating with the interval score, which evaluates precision and accuracy in terms of prediction intervals rather than pointwise accuracy. We also discuss ways to improve the forecasting performance of NODEs. The power of a forecasting tool such as NODEs is that it can provide insights into population dynamics and should thus broaden the approaches to studying time series of ecological communities.

Intra- and interspecies variation and population dynamics of Fasciola gigantica among ruminants in Sudan.

Fasciola gigantica is a widespread parasite that causes neglected disease in livestock worldwide. Its high transmissibility and dispersion are attributed to its ability to infect intermediate snail hosts and adapt to various mammalian definitive hosts. This study investigated the variation and population dynamics of F. gigantica in cattle, sheep, and goats from three states in Sudan. Mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (ND1) genes were sequenced successfully to examine intra and interspecific differences. ND1 exhibited higher diversity than COI, with 15 haplotypes and 10 haplotypes, respectively. Both genes had high haplotype diversity but low nucleotide diversity, with 21 and 11 polymorphic sites for ND1 and COI, respectively. Mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests revealed that F. gigantica from different host species was in a state of population expansion. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees and median networks revealed that F. gigantica in Sudan and other African countries had host-specific and country-specific lineages for both genes. The study also indicated that F. gigantica-infected small ruminants were evolutionarily distant, suggesting deep and historical interspecies adaptation.

Population dynamics and spatial structure of the grey rockcod (Lepidonotothen squamifrons) in the vicinity of Heard Island and the McDonald Islands.

The grey rockcod, Lepidonotothen squamifrons is an important prey species for seals, penguins and Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in the Southern Ocean. Across the Kerguelen Plateau, the species was fished to commercial extinction (ca. 152 000 tonnes between 1971 and 1978) prior to the declaration of the French Exclusive Economic Zone in 1979 and the Australian Fishing Zone in 1981. In this study we estimate; age, growth, maturity, sex ratio, body condition (weight-at-length), and population density of grey rockcod using data from 19 trawl surveys from 1990 to 2014. There appeared to be three distinct geographical populations, with differences in biological parameters within each population. This study has identified separate metapopulations within the southern region of the Kerguelen Plateau and we recommend that management should take into account the different characteristics of these populations, and that this meta-population structure may be a factor in why this species required several decades to show signs of recovery.

Emigration and fiscal gap in population-exporting region.

This paper analyzes how emigration impacts fiscal gap of population-exporting region in the long term. We construct a general equilibrium model of emigration and fiscal gap and make empirical verification using two-step system GMM model. Among the major lessons from this work, five general and striking results are worth highlighting: (1) the economic losses of emigration are the immediate cause of widening the fiscal gap. (2) in the short and long term, emigration can expand the fiscal revenue gap through the superimposed effect of tax rate and tax base. (3) the gap in fiscal expenditure is widened by the outflow of people in the short term. However, local governments would change the strategy to keep the spending gap from widening in the long run. (4) a positive impact of emigration on the fiscal gap. the more severe population emigration, the larger the fiscal gap. (5) when the trend of emigration becomes irreversible, the subsequent efforts of local governments to expand fiscal expenditure for attraction population would not only fail to revive the regional economy, but aggravate the expansion of fiscal gap. The contribution of research is twofold. On the one hand, it fills the theoretical gap between emigration and fiscal gap because previous studies have paid little attention to the fiscal problems of local government of population outflow. On the other hand, the selection of Northeast China that has been subject to long-term out-of-population migration is good evidence to verify this theory, which is tested very well using the 2S-GMM model. The comprehensive discussion on the relationship between emigration and fiscal gap is helpful to guide those continuous population-exporting regions that are facing a huge fiscal gap how to solve the fiscal gap and unsustainability from the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure.

A risk-induced dispersal strategy of the infected population for a disease-free state in the SIS epidemic model.

This article proposes a dispersal strategy for infected individuals in a spatial susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. The presence of spatial heterogeneity and the movement of individuals play crucial roles in determining the persistence and eradication of infectious diseases. To capture these dynamics, we introduce a moving strategy called risk-induced dispersal (RID) for infected individuals in a continuous-time patch model of the SIS epidemic. First, we establish a continuous-time n-patch model and verify that the RID strategy is an effective approach for attaining a disease-free state. This is substantiated through simulations conducted on 7-patch models and analytical results derived from 2-patch models. Second, we extend our analysis by adapting the patch model into a diffusive epidemic model. This extension allows us to explore further the impact of the RID movement strategy on disease transmission and control. We validate our results through simulations, which provide the effects of the RID dispersal strategy.

The low survival rate of European hare leverets in arable farmland: evidence from the predation experiment.

The low survival rate of leverets may significantly contribute to steep population declines and slow recovery of European hares (Lepus europaeus). However, the leveret survival rate in farmlands with different landscape structures is poorly understood, and the existing evidence comes mainly from Western Europe. In this study, we explored the survival of leveret hare dummies along linear semi-natural habitats in homogeneous Central European arable farmland during the main part of the European hare reproduction period (March-April) in 2019 and 2020. The survival rate of hare leverets during the 14-day period was only 22.2%, and all predation events were recorded during the first six days of the experiment. Mammalian predators were responsible for 53.1% of predation events, avian predators for 40.8%, and agricultural operations for 6.1%. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) was the dominant predator in our study area and was the primary cause of leveret dummy mortality (32.7%), but it also had the highest use-intensity and visit frequency of all of the study plots. Predation by avian predators was associated with patches of lower vegetation height and cover (such as plowed fields) and during daylight hours, whereas the opposite was true for mammalian predators. We propose that improving the habitat quality of arable landscapes by increasing the proportion and quality of extensively used non-farmed habitats (e.g., set-asides, wildflower areas, extensive meadows, fallow land, and semi-natural habitats on arable land) providing cover and shelter for leverets could be an effective management measure for reducing predation risk on leverets.

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking.

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally ("residents") were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging "migrants." This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

Residential mobility and persistently depressed voting among disadvantaged adults in a large housing experiment.

This study examines the impact of residential mobility on electoral participation among the poor by matching data from Moving to Opportunity, a US-based multicity housing-mobility experiment, with nationwide individual voter data. Nearly all participants in the experiment were Black and Hispanic families who originally lived in high-poverty public housing developments. Notably, the study finds that receiving a housing voucher to move to a low-poverty neighborhood decreased adult participants' voter participation for nearly two decades-a negative impact equal to or outpacing that of the most effective get-out-the-vote campaigns in absolute magnitude. This finding has important implications for understanding residential mobility as a long-run depressant of voter turnout among extremely low-income adults.

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

Mobility census for monitoring rapid urban development.

Monitoring urban structure and development requires high-quality data at high spatio-temporal resolution. While traditional censuses have provided foundational insights into demographic and socio-economic aspects of urban life, their pace may not always align with the pace of urban development. To complement these traditional methods, we explore the potential of analysing alternative big-data sources, such as human mobility data. However, these often noisy and unstructured big data pose new challenges. Here, we propose a method to extract meaningful explanatory variables and classifications from such data. Using movement data from Beijing, which are produced as a by-product of mobile communication, we show that meaningful features can be extracted, revealing, for example, the emergence and absorption of subcentres. This method allows the analysis of urban dynamics at a high-spatial resolution (here 500 m) and near real-time frequency, and high computational efficiency, which is especially suitable for tracing event-driven mobility changes and their impact on urban structures.

The Unification of Evolutionary Dynamics through the Bayesian Decay Factor in a Game on a Graph.

We unify evolutionary dynamics on graphs in strategic uncertainty through a decaying Bayesian update. Our analysis focuses on the Price theorem of selection, which governs replicator(-mutator) dynamics, based on a stratified interaction mechanism and a composite strategy update rule. Our findings suggest that the replication of a certain mutation in a strategy, leading to a shift from competition to cooperation in a well-mixed population, is equivalent to the replication of a strategy in a Bayesian-structured population without any mutation. Likewise, the replication of a strategy in a Bayesian-structured population with a certain mutation, resulting in a move from competition to cooperation, is equivalent to the replication of a strategy in a well-mixed population without any mutation. This equivalence holds when the transition rate from competition to cooperation is equal to the relative strength of selection acting on either competition or cooperation in relation to the selection differential between cooperators and competitors. Our research allows us to identify situations where cooperation is more likely, irrespective of the specific payoff levels. This approach provides new perspectives into the intended purpose of Price's equation, which was initially not designed for this type of analysis.

Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks with node's activity and attractiveness.

The metapopulation network model is a mathematical framework used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals' mobility. In this paper, we develop a time-varying network model in which the activity of a population is correlated with its attractiveness in mobility. By studying the spreading dynamics of the SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered)-type disease in different correlated networks based on the proposed model, we theoretically derive the mobility threshold and numerically observe that increasing the correction between activity and attractiveness results in a reduced mobility threshold but suppresses the fraction of infected subpopulations. It also introduces greater heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of infected individuals. Additionally, we investigate the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the spread of epidemics in different correlation networks. Our results show that the simultaneous implementation of self-isolation and self-protection is more effective in negatively correlated networks than that in positively correlated or non-correlated networks. Both self-isolation and self-protection strategies enhance the mobility threshold and, thus, slow down the spread of the epidemic. However, the effectiveness of each strategy in reducing the fraction of infected subpopulations varies in different correlated networks. Self-protection is more effective in positively correlated networks, whereas self-isolation is more effective in negatively correlated networks. Our study will provide insights into epidemic prevention and control in large-scale time-varying metapopulation networks.

Occupancy dynamics of free ranging American mink (Neogale vison) in Greece.

Identifying the environmental factors that determine the occurrence of invasive species is essential in defining and implementing effective control campaigns. Here, we applied multi-season occupancy models to analyze American mink (Neogale vison) track data collected using 121 floating rafts, as a function of factors occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our overall aim was to identify those factors that determine the use, colonization or abandonment of rafts by free ranging individuals found in western Macedonia, Greece. We found that increasing values of shrubs and rock cover at the micro-habitat scale were positively associated with the species' probability of raft use, as was the density of medium-sized rivers at the landscape scale. Colonization was found to increase with increasing amounts of shrub and reed cover; however, both variables were not informative. Conversely, the distance from the nearest fur farm was highly informative in predicting raft abandonment by the species. Effective control actions may require removal by trapping along rocky or densely vegetated riverbanks or lake shores located in the vicinity of the established fur farms in the area. Habitat management, although possible, may be difficult to implement due to the ability of the species to adapt. Finally, fur farms should maximize security and establish an early warning and rapid eradication system in case of future escapes.

Seasonal fluctuation and alternative host plants of vegetable crop-infesting tephritids in non-vegetable growing areas in South Sudanese zone of Burkina Faso.

This study was carried out in 3 types of biotopes where vegetable crops are not grown to highlight their contribution to the dynamics of vegetable-infesting flies. To this end, a trapping system based on a sexual attractant, the Cuelure associated with an insecticide was set up in 18 biotopes (6 natural areas, 6 mango orchards, and 6 agroforestry parks) in the regions of Hauts Bassins and Cascades in the South-West of Burkina Faso. During the trapping monitoring, which was done every 2 wk to collect insects captured, fruits present in 3 types of biotopes were sampled and incubated for insect emergence. Ten Dacus (Fabricius) [Diptera: Tephritidae] species and Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett) [Diptera: Tephritidae] were trapped in the study area. The predominant species captured was Z. cucurbitae (52.93%) followed by Dacus punctatifrons (Karsch) [Diptera: Tephritidae] (29.89%) and Dacus humeralis (Bezzi) (12.71%). Six tephritid species were emerged from 6 wild fruit species belonging to Cucurbitaceae, Apocynaceae, and Passifloraceae families. Fruit flies were more abundant from Jul to Nov with peaks observed in Aug or Oct depending on the species. Citrullus colocynthis L. (Cucurbitaceae), Lagenaria sp. (Cucurbitaceae), Passiflora foetida L. (Passifloraceae), and Passiflora sp. acted as reservoir host plants of Dacus ciliatus (Loew), Dacus bivittatus (Bigot), Dacus vertebratus (Bezzi) [Diptera: Tephritidae], D. punctatifrons, and Z. cucurbitae, the major vegetable insect pests in West Africa. The 3 types of biotopes acted as suitable refuge areas of vegetable crop-infesting fruit flies either for the favorable microclimate or for the alternative host plants.

Time-dependent interaction modification generated from plant-soil feedback.

Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher-order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant-soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time-dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time-dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities.