Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial de Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) para costa rochosa entremarés em Antofagasta (23 ° S, Chile)

The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.

As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.

Spatial distribution of Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) for intertidal rocky shore in Antofagasta (23° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial de Echinolitorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1882) para costa rochosa entremarés em Antofagasta (23 ° S, Chile)

The intertidal rocky shores in continental Chile have high species diversity mainly in northern Chile (18-27° S), and one of the most widespread species is the gastropod Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). The aim of the present study is do a first characterization of spatial distribution of E. peruviana in along rocky shore in Antofagasta town in northern Chile. Individuals were counted in nine different sites that also were determined their spectral properties using remote sensing techniques (LANDSAT ETM+). The results revealed that sites without marked human intervention have more abundant in comparison to sites located in the town, also in all studied sites was found an aggregated pattern, and in six of these sites were found a negative binomial distribution. The low density related to sites with human intervention is supported when spectral properties for sites were included. These results would agree with other similar results for rocky shore in northern and southern Chile.(AU)

As costas rochosas entremarés no Chile continental apresentam alta diversidade de espécies, principalmente no norte do país (18-27 ° S), e uma das espécies mais difundidas é o gastrópode Echinolittorina peruviana (Lamarck, 1822). O objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma primeira caracterização da distribuição espacial de E. peruviana no costão rochoso da cidade de Antofagasta no norte do Chile. Os indivíduos foram contados em nove locais diferentes onde também foram determinadas suas propriedades espectrais usando técnicas de sensoriamento remoto (LANDSAT ETM +). Os resultados revelaram que os locais sem intervenção humana marcada apresentam maior abundância em comparação aos locais localizados no município. Também em todos os locais estudados foi encontrado um padrão agregado, sendo que em seis desses locais foi encontrada uma distribuição binomial negativa. A baixa densidade relacionada a sites com intervenção humana é suportada quando as propriedades espectrais para sites foram incluídas. Esses resultados concordariam com outros resultados semelhantes para costões rochosos no norte e no sul do Chile.(AU)

Diferencias socioespaciales entre homicidios y suicidios en Argentina, 1994-2014 / Diferenças socioespaciais entre homicídios e suicídios na Argentina, 1994-2014 / Socio-spatial differences between homicide and suicide in Argentina, 1994-2014

Los objetivos de este estudio son descubrir la conformación de conglomerados espaciotemporales de los suicidios, homicidios y muertes por lesiones de intención no determinada (MLIND) en Argentina, durante el período 1994-2014, y analizar la asociación espaciotemporal entre conglomerados de suicidios u homicidios y conglomerados de MLIND en Argentina durante el mismo período. Las unidades espaciales fueron los departamentos de Argentina. Se hizo un rastreo estadístico espaciotemporal para la detección de conglomerados por sexo y grupos de edad (10 a 29, 30 a 59 y 60 o más años). Se utilizaron dos modelos espaciotemporales: multinomial y Bernoulli. La emergencia de conglomerados de homicidios en hombres estuvo más asociada a caídas más abruptas en los niveles de empleo, entre 1991 y 2001, en comparación a los suicidios. Las áreas con densidades poblacionales altas y porcentajes más altos de necesidades básicas insatisfechas (NBI) tendieron a estar incluidas en conglomerados de homicidio en hombres en comparación a los suicidios. Hubo un mayor solapamiento espaciotemporal entre MLIND y homicidios. Los resultados obtenidos apoyan las hipótesis de 1) una diferenciación geográfica entre homicidios y suicidios en tiempos de crisis económica y 2) la representación mayoritaria de MLIND en homicidios ocultos.

Os objetivos deste estudo são: conhecer a conformação dos conglomerados espaço-temporais de suicídios, homicídios e óbitos por lesões por intenção indeterminada (MLIND) na Argentina, durante o período 1994-2014; e analisar a associação espaço-temporal entre grupos de suicídio ou homicídio e grupos de MLIND, na Argentina no mesmo período. As unidades espaciais foram os departamentos da Argentina. Uma varredura estatística espaço-temporal foi realizada para detectar clusters por sexo e grupos de idade (10-29, 30-59 e 60 anos ou mais). Dois modelos espaço-temporais foram usados: multinomial e Bernoulli. O surgimento de conglomerados de homicídios em homens esteve mais associado a reduções mais acentuadas nos níveis de emprego, entre 1991 e 2001, em comparação com os suicídios. Áreas com altas densidades populacionais e maiores percentuais de necessidades básicas insatisfeitas (indicador de pobreza) tenderam a ser incluídas em conglomerados de homicídio em homens, em comparação com suicídios. Houve uma maior sobreposição espaço-temporal entre MLIND e homicídios. Os resultados obtidos suportam as hipóteses de uma diferenciação geográfica entre homicídios e suicídios em tempos de crise económica e que os MLINDs representariam principalmente homicídios ocultos.

The objectives of this study are to discover the conformation of spatio-temporal clusters of suicides, homicides and deaths due to injuries of undetermined intention (MLIND) in Argentina, during the period 1994-2014, and to analyze the spatio-temporal association between suicide or homicide clusters and MLIND clusters in Argentina during the same period. The spatial units were the departments of Argentina. Space-time scan statistics were performed to detect clusters by sex and age groups (10-29 years, 30-59 years and 60 or more years). Two space-time models were used: multinomial and Bernoulli. The emergence of homicide clusters in men was more associated with steeper drops in employment levels, between 1991 and 2001, compared to suicide clusters. Areas with the highest population density and with the highest percentage of Unsatisfied Basic Needs (poverty indicator) were more likely to be included in clusters with high proportions of homicide in men, compared to suicide. There was a greater spatio-temporal overlap between MLIND and homicides. The results obtained support the hypotheses of (1) a geographical differentiation between homicides and suicides in times of economic crisis; and (2) MLIND would represent mostly hidden homicides.

Enfermedad podal en bovinos: prevalencia y asociación con algunas variables / Podal disease in cows: prevalence and association with some variables

RESUMEN La enfermedad podal constituye uno de los síndromes más difíciles de controlar en la industria lechera. El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo cuantificar la prevalencia de enfermedad podal, evaluando su asociación con factores como raza, orden de parto y peso. Se trata de un estudio retrospectivo que utiliza los registros sanitarios y productivos de un hato lechero ubicado en el trópico alto de Colombia. Los componentes raciales presentes fueron Fl Holstein x Blanco Orejinegro, 3/4 Holstein 1/4 Blanco Orejinegro, 5/8 Holstein 3/8 Blanco Orejinegro y Holstein 100%. Se consideraron 6 órdenes de parto. La variable enfermedad podal presenta una distribución binomial. El efecto de los factores se verificó utilizando un modelo lineal generalizado, por medio de una regresión logística (PROC GENMOD SAS versión 9.4). En caso de existir diferencias significativas, se aplicó el procedimiento LSMEANS del SAS (versión 9.4) y un Odds Rattio entre los niveles que presentaron significancia. La prevalencia de enfermedad podal en el hato fue de 10,55%. Los factores de riesgo considerados fueron estadísticamente significativos: componente racial (p < 0,0009), orden parto (p < 0,0001) y peso medio de las vacas (p < 0,0001). Se observó un incremento en la prevalencia de la enfermedad asociado a la raza Holstein, orden de parto alto y bajo peso corporal. La prevalencia de enfermedad podal fue mayor en vacas Holstein puras y menor en vacas Holstein cruzadas con Blanco Orejinegro, debido a la resistencia por heterosis que la raza criolla aporta. El incremento del orden de parto al igual que el bajo peso se relacionan con una mayor prevalencia de esta enfermedad.

ABSTRACT Foot disease is one of the most difficult syndromes to control in the dairy industry. The goal of this study was to quantify the prevalence of foot disease, evaluating its association with factors such as race, calving order and weight. This is a retrospective study using the health and production records of a dairy herd located in the high tropics of Colombia. The racial components present were F1 Holstein x Blanco Orejinegro, 3/4 Holstein 1/4 Blanco Orejinegro, 5/8 Holstein 3/8 Blanco Orejinegro, Holstein 100%. 6 delivery orders were considered. The variable foot disease presents a binomial distribution. The effect of the factors was verified using a generalized linear model, by means of a logistic regression (PROC GENMOD SAS version 9.4). In the event of significant differences, the SAS LSMEANS procedure (version 9.4) and an Odds Ratio were applied between the levels that presented significance. The prevalence of foot disease in the herd was 10,55%. The risk factors considered were statistically significant: racial component (p < 0,0009), calving order (p < 0,0001) and average weight of the cows (p < 0,0001). An increase in the prevalence of the disease was observed associated with the Holstein breed, high calving order and low body weight. The prevalence of foot disease was higher in pure Holstein cows and lower in Holstein cows crossed with Blanco Orejinegro due to the resistance due to heterosis that the creole breed contributes. The increase in the delivery order as well as the low weight are related to a higher prevalence of this disease.

Impact of Climate Change on Human Infectious Diseases: Dengue

Abstract Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although it is not yet fully understood, climate is a critical factor as it facilitates risk analysis of epidemics. This study analyzed the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate variables and dengue risk in the municipality of Campo Grande, from 2008 to 2018. Generalized linear models with negative binomial and Poisson distribution were used. The most appropriate model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled by "year". In this model, a 1°C rise in the minimum temperature of one month led to an increase in dengue cases the following month, while a 10 mm increase in precipitation led to an increase in dengue cases the following month.

Assessing spatial confounding in cancer disease mapping using R.

BACKGROUND: Exploring spatial patterns in the context of cancer disease mapping (DM) is a decisive approach to bring evidence of geographical tendencies in assessing disease status and progression. However, this framework is not insulated from spatial confounding, a topic of significant interest in cancer epidemiology, where the latent correlation between the spatial random effects and fixed effects (such as covariates), often lead to misleading interpretation. AIMS: To introduce three popular approaches (RHZ, HH and SPOCK; details in paper) often employed to tackle spatial confounding, and illustrate their implementation in cancer research via the popular statistical software R. METHODS: As a solution to alleviate spatial confounding, restricted spatial regressions are constructed by either projecting the latent effect onto the orthogonal space of covariates, or by displacing the spatial locations. Popular parametric count data models, such as the Poisson, generalized Poisson and negative binomial, were considered for the areal count responses, while the spatial association is quantified via the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Our method of inference in Bayesian, sometimes aided by the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to accelerate computing. The methods are implemented in the R package RASCO available from the first author's GitHub page. RESULTS: The results reveal that all three methods perform well in alleviating the bias and variance inflation present in the spatial models. The effects of spatial confounding were also explored, which, if ignored in practice, may lead to wrong conclusions. CONCLUSION: Spatial confounding continues to remain a critical bottleneck in deriving precise inference from spatial DM models. Hence, its effects must be investigated, and mitigated. Several approaches are available in the literature, and they produce trustworthy results. The central contribution of this paper is providing the practitioners the R package RASCO, capable of fitting a large number of spatial models, as well as their restricted versions.

Spatial distribution in marine invertebrates in rocky shore of Araucania Region (38° S, Chile) / Distribuição espacial em invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía (38° S, Chile)

The rocky shores in Chile have a wide invertebrate species diversity, that include species with marked abundances in determined regions. The aim of the present study is to analyse the spatial distribution pattern in different marine invertebrate species in rocky shore of Araucania region, considering if these species have random, uniform or associated patterns, and extrapolate if these patterns have Poisson, binomial or negative binomial distribution respectively. The results revealed the presence mainly of gastropods molluscs that would graze on benthic algae, these species have mainly aggregated pattern that has a robust negative binomial distribution pattern. The obtained results agree with observations for marine benthic fauna that mentioned the presence of aggregated pattern, has negative binomial distribution. Other ecological topics about spatial distribution were discussed.(AU)

As costas rochosas no Chile têm uma ampla diversidade de espécies de invertebrados, que incluem espécies com abundância marcada em determinadas regiões. O objetivo do presente estudo é analisar o padrão de distribuição espacial em diferentes espécies de invertebrados marinhos na costa rochosa da região de Araucanía, considerando se essas espécies possuem padrões aleatórios, uniformes ou associados, e extrapolar se esses padrões possuem distribuição binomial de Poisson, binomial ou negativa. respectivamente. Os resultados revelaram a presença principalmente de moluscos gastrópodes que pastam em algas bentônicas, estas espécies têm principalmente agregado padrão que tem um padrão robusto de distribuição binomial negativa, padrão agregado de grupos, e a fauna de água doce que apresenta distribuição binomial negativa. Outros tópicos ecológicos sobre distribuição espacial foram discutidos.(AU)

Standard of dental prescriptions performed by future professionals / Padrão das prescrições odontológicas realizadas por futuros profissionais

This study aimed to analyze the dentistry students' knowledge regarding drug prescription. It is a cross-sectional and quantitative study performed with last-semester dentistry students in a public higher education institution. The students received a blank sheet with the word "Prescription" in the header to prescribe a drug as they deemed pertinent. The researchers developed an instrument to analyze these prescriptions. Then, the data were tabulated for later analysis of the variables. The results were showed in absolute and percentage frequencies. The Binomial Test for two proportions was used for verifying the students' knowledge regarding the document subsections, at the significance level of 5%. It was noted that in 85.56% of the prescriptions filled by the students there was no postscript; in 64.44% no patient identification and in 67.78% the stamp was missing. It is concluded that a portion of the analyzed prescriptions was in non-compliance with some document's necessary formal elements (AU).

O objetivo do estudo foi analisar o conhecimento dos estudantes de Odontologia acerca da prescrição medicamentosa. Trata-se de um estudo transversal e quantitativo, realizado com estudantes do último semestre do curso de Odontologia de uma instituição pública de ensino superior. Para a realização do estudo, uma folha em branco com a palavra "Receita" no cabeçalho foi fornecida aos estudantes para que uma prescrição medicamentosa fosse realizada da forma que julgassem pertinente. Os pesquisadores desenvolveram um instrumento para a análise dos documentos em questão. Em seguida, os dados foram tabulados para posterior análise das variáveis. Os resultados foram apresentados em frequências absolutas e percentuais. Para verificação do conhecimento dos estudantes acerca das subdivisões dos documentos empregou-se o Teste Binomial de duas proporções, com nível de significância de 5%. Observou-se que em 85,56% das prescrições a adscrição não estava presente. Em 64,44% das receitas, a identificação do paciente não estava presente, e o carimbo não foi utilizado em 67,78%. Conclui-se que parte das prescrições analisadas estavam em desacordo em alguns elementos formais necessários no documento (AU).

Spatial distribution and control levels of Anastrepha spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) in guava orchards.

This study aimed to know the patterns of spatial distribution of Anastrepha spp. and establish a criterion for determining the appropriate time for pest control. For this, 90 McPhail traps were used as Sampling Units (SU) divided into three commercial orchards of Novo Milênio guava with a total area of 14 ha. Traps were interspersed between the rows of plants, systematically in the orchards, hung and baited with 5% hydrolyzed corn protein with weekly collections. We caught 8,170 Anastrepha spp. in 840 SU. The mean infestation index was compared to the three types of distribution: random, uniform, aggregate, and fit by the theoretical frequency distributions of Poisson, negative binomial and positive binomial. The populations of Anastrepha presented aggregate distribution according to the mean variance method (I), tested by distance from randomness. The economic damage risk potential of Anastrepha spp. was associated with the aggregate distribution behavior. The most appropriate moment for the use of control techniques is when reaching 20 flies by the negative binomial. On the other hand, number of fruit fly adults per trap per day (FTD), underestimates population index, which will allow population growth, leading to risk of crop production loss.

Heterogeneity of Trypanosoma cruzi infection rates in vectors and animal reservoirs in Colombia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The heterogeneity of Trypanosoma cruzi infection rates among triatomines insects and animal reservoirs has been studied in independent studies, but little information has been systematised to allow pooled and comparative estimates. Unravelling the main patterns of this heterogeneity could contribute to a further understanding of T. cruzi transmission in Colombia. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, LILACS, Embase, Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar and secondary sources with no filters of language or time and until April 2018. Based on selection criteria, all relevant studies reporting T. cruzi infection rates in reservoirs or triatomines were chosen. For pooled analyses, a random effects model for binomial distribution was used. Heterogeneity among studies is reported as I2. Subgroup analyses included: taxonomic classification, ecotope and diagnostic methods. Publication bias and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Overall, 39 studies reporting infection rates in Colombia were found (22 for potential reservoirs and 28 for triatomine insects) for a total sample of 22,838 potential animals and 11,307 triatomines evaluated for T. cruzi infection. We have found evidence of 38/71 different animal species as potential T. cruzi reservoirs and 14/18 species as triatomine vectors for T. cruzi. Among animals, the species with the highest pooled prevalence were opossum (Didelphis marsupialis) with 48.0% (95% CI: 26-71%; I2 = 88%, τ2 = 0.07, P < 0.01) and domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris) with 22.0% (95% CI: 4-48%; I2 = 96%, τ2 = 0.01, P < 0.01). Among triatomines, the highest prevalence was found for Triatoma maculata in the peridomestic ecotope (68.0%, 95% CI: 62-74%; I2 = 0%, τ2 = 0, P < 0.0001), followed by Rhodnius prolixus (62.0%, 95% CI: 38-84%; I2 = 95%, τ2 = 0.05, P < 0.01) and Rhodnius pallescens (54.0%, 95% CI: 37-71%; I2 = 86%, τ2 = 0.035, P < 0.01) in the sylvatic ecotope. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first systematic and quantitative analyses of triatomine insects and potential animal reservoirs for T. cruzi infection in Colombia. The results highlight a marked heterogeneity between species and provide initial estimates of infection rates heterogeneity.

Exploring the effect of time and sex in family and community violence from 2008 to 2014.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of the time and the sex of victims and perpetrators on the rates of family and community physical violence in a Brazilian municipality over seven years (2008-2014). METHODS: We made a census analysis from non-fatal victims attended in the Forensic Institute of the Scientific Civil Police. The monthly and annual violence rates were calculated based on the population size of the municipality. Time series was evaluated by negative binomial regression models, based on the number of cases with population offset and considering the effect of the sex of victims and perpetrators. RESULTS: A total of 3,324 cases of family and 4,634 cases of community violence were analyzed. There was a significant increase in family violence rates for female victims and male perpetrators. Family violence rates were always higher for female victims than for male and it was always lower for female perpetrators than for male (p < 0.001). There was a lower risk of community violence for male victims after 2013 and a decrease of aggression perpetrated by men over time. Men and women were similarly affected by community violence; however, the perpetrators were more frequently men. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a trend of increasing female victims in the family violence, mainly perpetrated by men. The reduction in community violence rates could be the result of policies to reduce crime.

Exploring the effect of time and sex in family and community violence from 2008 to 2014

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of the time and the sex of victims and perpetrators on the rates of family and community physical violence in a Brazilian municipality over seven years (2008-2014). METHODS We made a census analysis from non-fatal victims attended in the Forensic Institute of the Scientific Civil Police. The monthly and annual violence rates were calculated based on the population size of the municipality. Time series was evaluated by negative binomial regression models, based on the number of cases with population offset and considering the effect of the sex of victims and perpetrators. RESULTS A total of 3,324 cases of family and 4,634 cases of community violence were analyzed. There was a significant increase in family violence rates for female victims and male perpetrators. Family violence rates were always higher for female victims than for male and it was always lower for female perpetrators than for male (p < 0.001). There was a lower risk of community violence for male victims after 2013 and a decrease of aggression perpetrated by men over time. Men and women were similarly affected by community violence; however, the perpetrators were more frequently men. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate a trend of increasing female victims in the family violence, mainly perpetrated by men. The reduction in community violence rates could be the result of policies to reduce crime.

Variación estacional de las hospitalizaciones por infarto agudo de miocardio según sexo y edad en Chile / Seasonal variation in hospital admissions due to acute myocardial infarction according to sex and age in Chile

Background: The incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) varies according to seasonality, being higher in winter. The effect of sex on this phenomenon is not clear. Aim: To evaluate the effect of seasonality in men and women hospitalized for AMI at different ages. Material and Methods: We included all patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI admitted in public and private hospitals in Chile during 2002-2011 (codes I21-I22, of the tenth international classification of diseases). We obtained data from the National Discharge databases available at the Ministry of Health website. We estimated the number of discharges per month and per seasonality (cold /template), and the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) with the formula: number of observed cases/expected cases (average annual hospitalizations), stratified by sex and age (< 50 years, 50-64 years, 6574 years, ≥ 75 years). We evaluated the effect of sex with binomial regressions for the different age strata. Results: We assessed 59,557 AMI hospitalizations (69% men, with and without ST elevation segment). May, June and July (austral winter) had a SIR of 1.10; 1.12 and 1.10, respectively. Women had a 20% excess of hospitalizations during cold seasons at any age. In men, the excess of hospitalizations increased from 9% in those aged < 50 years to 21% in those ≥ 75 years (p = 0.043). When comparing women and men, women aged < 50 years showed the higher risk of being hospitalized during cold seasons (adjusted risk ratio = 1.06; 95% confidence intervals 1.01-1.13). Conclusions: Women have a stronger seasonal pattern in AMI hospitalizations than men. While this effect increases with age in men, in women it remains constant at all ages.

Incorporation of frailties into a cure rate regression model and its diagnostics and application to melanoma data.

Cure rate models have been widely studied to analyze time-to-event data with a cured fraction of patients. Our proposal consists of incorporating frailty into a cure rate model, as an alternative to the existing models to describe this type of data, based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Such a distribution has theoretical arguments to model medical data and has shown empirically to be a good option for their analysis. An advantage of the proposed model is the possibility to jointly consider the heterogeneity among patients by their frailties and the presence of a cured fraction of them. In addition, the number of competing causes is described by the negative binomial distribution, which absorbs several particular cases. We consider likelihood-based methods to estimate the model parameters and to derive influence diagnostics for this model. We assess local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. Deriving diagnostic tools is needed in all statistical modeling, which is another novel aspect of our proposal. Numerical evaluation of the considered model is performed by Monte Carlo simulations and by an illustration with melanoma data, both of which show its good performance and its potential applications. Particularly, the illustration confirms the importance of statistical diagnostics in the modeling.

[Seasonal variation in hospital admissions due to acute myocardial infarction according to sex and age in Chile]. / Variación estacional de las hospitalizaciones por infarto agudo de miocardio según sexo y edad en Chile.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) varies according to seasonality, being higher in winter. The effect of sex on this phenomenon is not clear. AIM: To evaluate the effect of seasonality in men and women hospitalized for AMI at different ages. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included all patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI admitted in public and private hospitals in Chile during 2002-2011 (codes I21-I22, of the tenth international classification of diseases). We obtained data from the National Discharge databases available at the Ministry of Health website. We estimated the number of discharges per month and per seasonality (cold /template), and the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) with the formula: number of observed cases/expected cases (average annual hospitalizations), stratified by sex and age (< 50 years, 50-64 years, 6574 years, ≥ 75 years). We evaluated the effect of sex with binomial regressions for the different age strata. RESULTS: We assessed 59,557 AMI hospitalizations (69% men, with and without ST elevation segment). May, June and July (austral winter) had a SIR of 1.10; 1.12 and 1.10, respectively. Women had a 20% excess of hospitalizations during cold seasons at any age. In men, the excess of hospitalizations increased from 9% in those aged < 50 years to 21% in those ≥ 75 years (p = 0.043). When comparing women and men, women aged < 50 years showed the higher risk of being hospitalized during cold seasons (adjusted risk ratio = 1.06; 95% confidence intervals 1.01-1.13). CONCLUSIONS: Women have a stronger seasonal pattern in AMI hospitalizations than men. While this effect increases with age in men, in women it remains constant at all ages.

Reproductive potential of Chrysoperla externa maintained in different cage sizes in laboratory conditions / Potencial reprodutivo de Chrysoperla externa mantidos em diferentes tamanhos de gaiolas, em condições de laboratório

This study investigated the influence of cage sizes on the survival and reproductive potential of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen). Size of breeding cages significantly affected the reproductive potential of C. externa . Our results indicated that in cages smaller (7.5cm of diameter) than those usually recommended for the rearing of this insect (10cm diameter), females showed higher rates of oviposition. Reduction of space for rearing natural enemies in the laboratory is very important for developing biological control programs.

Investigou-se a interferência do tamanho das gaiolas de criação de adultos de Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) sobre o seu potencial reprodutivo e sua sobrevivência. O tamanho das gaiolas de criação afetou significativamente o potencial reprodutivo deste crisopídeo. Os resultados indicaram que em gaiolas menores (7,5cm de diâmetro) do que as habitualmente usadas para a criação de adultos desse predador (10cm de diâmetro) ocorreram maiores taxas de oviposição. A redução de espaço para a criação de inimigos naturais para atender aos programas de controle biológico em laboratório é muito importante.

Reproductive potential of Chrysoperla externa maintained in different cage sizes in laboratory conditions / Potencial reprodutivo de Chrysoperla externa mantidos em diferentes tamanhos de gaiolas, em condições de laboratório

This study investigated the influence of cage sizes on the survival and reproductive potential of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen). Size of breeding cages significantly affected the reproductive potential of C. externa . Our results indicated that in cages smaller (7.5cm of diameter) than those usually recommended for the rearing of this insect (10cm diameter), females showed higher rates of oviposition. Reduction of space for rearing natural enemies in the laboratory is very important for developing biological control programs. (AU)

Investigou-se a interferência do tamanho das gaiolas de criação de adultos de Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) sobre o seu potencial reprodutivo e sua sobrevivência. O tamanho das gaiolas de criação afetou significativamente o potencial reprodutivo deste crisopídeo. Os resultados indicaram que em gaiolas menores (7,5cm de diâmetro) do que as habitualmente usadas para a criação de adultos desse predador (10cm de diâmetro) ocorreram maiores taxas de oviposição. A redução de espaço para a criação de inimigos naturais para atender aos programas de controle biológico em laboratório é muito importante. (AU)

CUSUM control charts to monitor series of Negative Binomial count data.

To detect outbreaks of diseases in public health, several control charts have been proposed in the literature. In this context, the usual generalized linear model may be fitted for counts under a Negative Binomial distribution with a logarithm link function and the population size included as offset to model hospitalization rates. Different statistics are used to build CUSUM control charts to monitor daily hospitalizations and their performances are compared in simulation studies. The main contribution of the current paper is to consider different statistics based on transformations and the deviance residual to build control charts to monitor counts with seasonality effects and evaluate all the assumptions of the monitored statistics. The monitoring of daily number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases for people aged over 65 years in the city São Paulo-Brazil is considered as an illustration of the current proposal.

Método para estimação de indicadores de mortalidade infantil e baixo peso ao nascer para municípios do Brasil, 2012 / Método para cálculo de indicadores de mortalidad infantil y bajo peso al nacer en municipios de Brasil, 2012 / Method for estimating infant mortality and low birth weight indicators for Brazilian municipalities, 2012

OBJETIVO: apresentar um método para estimação dos indicadores de prevalência de baixo peso ao nascer (BPN) e coeficiente de mortalidade infantil (CMI) para municípios brasileiros, de modo a incorporar considerações de flutuação amostral. MÉTODOS: as distribuições binomial e de Poisson foram usadas para estimar os intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%); quando o número de óbitos infantis foi zero, o limite superior do IC95% foi estimado pelo método da "regra do três"; como demonstração, foram estimados indicadores para o ano de 2012. RESULTADOS: observou-se discreto aumento do BPN e diminuição do CMI com o aumento da população municipal; as estimativas foram mais precisas para o BPN do que para o CMI, apresentaram grande amplitude dos IC95% em municípios pequenos e baixa confiabilidade quando analisadas apenas para um ano específico. CONCLUSÃO: foi desenvolvida uma planilha eletrônica que permitirá aos gestores estimarem a precisão desses indicadores para seus municípios.

OBJETIVO: presentar un método para el cálculo de indicadores de prevalencia de bajo peso al nacer (BPN) y coeficiente de mortalidad infantil (CMI) para municipios brasileros, para incorporar consideraciones de fluctuación en las muestras. MÉTODOS: las distribuciones binomial y Poisson fueron usadas para estimar intervalos de confianza de 95% (IC95%) de los indicadores; cuando el número de muertes infantiles era cero, el límite superior del IC95% fue estimado por el método "regla de tres". Como demostración fueron estimados indicadores para el año 2012. RESULTADOS: fue observado un discreto aumento del BPN y disminución del CMI en municipios más populosos; Las estimativas de BPN fueron más precisas que las de CMI, presentando IC95% más amplios en municipios pequeños e con baja confiabilidad cuando analizadas apenas para un año específico. CONCLUSIÓN: fue creada una planilla electrónica que permitirá a los gestores estimar la precisión de éstos indicadores para sus municipios.

OBJECTIVE: to present a method for estimating low birth weight (LBW) prevalence and infant mortality rate (IMR) indicators for Brazilian municipalities, so as to incorporate considerations with regard to sampling fluctuation. METHODS: binomial and Poisson distributions were used to estimate 95% confidence intervals (95%CI); when the number of infant deaths was zero, the upper limit of the 95%CI was estimated by the cross-multiplication method; indicators were estimated for the year 2012 for demonstration purposes. RESULTS: a slight increase in LBW and a decrease in IMR were detected as municipality population size increased; LBW estimates were more accurate than those for IMR; single-year estimates showed large width 95%CI in small municipalities and low reliability. CONCLUSION: an electronic spreadsheet was developed which will allow service managers to estimate the precision of these indicators for their municipalities.

Mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, no período de 1996 a 2010: tendência temporal e projeções até 2030 / Cervical cancer mortality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, 1996-2010: time trends and projections up to 2030 / Mortalidad por cáncer de cuello de útero en el estado de Rio Grande del Norte, en el período de 1996 a 2010: tendencia temporal y proyecciones hasta el año 2030

OBJETIVO: analisar a tendência da mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no estado do Rio Grande do Norte e em suas microrregiões de saúde, no período de 1996 a 2010, e realizar projeções para os quinquênios, de 2011 a 2030. MÉTODOS: estudo ecológico de series temporais; empregou-se regressão binomial negativa para análise das tendências e projeções. RESULTADOS: foram observadas taxas acima de 5,0 óbitos por 100 mil mulheres em todas as microrregiões, com tendência estacionária para o estado e ascendente nas microrregiões com piores condições socioeconômicas; as projeções indicaram redução nas taxas de mortalidade no estado, de 5,95/100 mil mulheres (2006-2010) para 3,67 (2026-2030), embora seja previsto aumento de 22% no número absoluto de óbitos. CONCLUSÃO: apesar da previsão de redução nas taxas de mortalidade, estas ainda apresentam-se elevadas, sinalizando a necessidade de revisão e fortalecimento do programa de controle do câncer do colo do útero no estado.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and its health micro-regions from 1996 to 2010, as well as to make projections for five-year periods from 2011 to 2030. METHODS: this was an ecological time series study; negative binomial regression was used to analyze trends and projections. RESULTS: rates above 5.0 deaths per 100,000 women were observed in all the micro-regions, with a stationary trend in the state as a whole and an upward trend in the micro-regions with the worst socioeconomic conditions; projections indicated reduction in mortality rates in the state, from 5.95/100,000 women (2006-2010) to 3.67 (2026-2030), although a 22% increase in the absolute number of deaths is expected. CONCLUSION: although a reduction in mortality rates is projected, they continue to be high, indicating the need for review and strengthening of the state's cervical cancer control program.

OBJETIVO: analizar la tendencia de mortalidad por cáncer de cuello de útero en el estado de Rio Grande del Norte (RN) y en sus microrregiones de salud, en el período de 1996 a 2010, así como realizar proyecciones para los períodos quinquenales entre 2011 y 2030. MÉTODOS: estudio ecológico de series de tiempo; se utilizó regresión binomial negativa para analizar tendencias y proyecciones. RESULTADOS: observamos tasas de 5.0 muertes por cada 100 mil mujeres en todas las microrregiones, con una tendencia estacionaria para el estado y ascendente en las microrregiones con peores condiciones socioeconómicas. Las proyecciones mostraron una reducción en las tasas de mortalidad en el estado, de 5.95/100 mil mujeres (2006-2010) para 3.67 (2026-2030), aunque se espere un aumento de 22% en el número absoluto de muertes. CONCLUSIÓN: a pesar del pronóstico de reducción de las tasas de mortalidad, estas siguen siendo altas, lo que indica la necesidad de revisar y fortalecer el programa de control de cáncer de cuello uterino en el estado.