Falsificações por troca de espécies de peixes: uma revisão sistemática das espécies mais comumente substituídas / Fish mislabeling: a systematic review of the most commonly mislabeled species

O objetivo deste artigo é determinar quais são as espécies de peixes mais comumente substituídas, relatadas em revisões sobre falsificações por troca de espécies, em artigos científicos publicados entre 2002 e 2022, assim como expor quais são os fatores que levam à ocorrência de casos de falsificação, quais os danos sociais que tal prática ilegal pode gerar e em que tipo de estabelecimentos as falsificações normalmente são detectadas. Assim, por meio de uma revisão sistemática de literatura, foi verificado que as espécies de peixes mais comumente falsificadas foram Anoplopoma fimbria, Gadus morhua, Solea solea, Thunnus albacares, Scomberomorus commerson, Lates calcarifer e Rastrelliger brachysoma. As motivações por trás das falsificações intencionais foram predominantemente econômicas, tendo sido observados impactos negativos das falsificações na economia, na saúde pública e no meio ambiente. A maioria das falsificações foi encontrada no final da cadeia produtiva, em locais como varejos, restaurantes e peixarias. Dessa forma, ao saber como as falsificações acontecem e suas razões, torna-se possível saber como minimizar a sua ocorrência.

The aim of this article is to identify the most frequently mislabeled fish species, based on reports and reviews of species mislabeling-related falsifications, in scientific articles published between 2002 and 2022. It also aims to explore the factors contributing these counterfeiting incidents, the social harms associated with this illegal practice and the types of establishments where counterfeits are typically detected. Through a systematic literature review, it was verified that the most commonly mislabeled fish species were Anoplopoma fimbria, Gadus morhua, Solea solea, Thunnus albacares, Scomberomorus commerson, Lates calcarifer and Rastrelliger brachysoma. The primary motivations behind intentional counterfeiting were economic in nature, and negative impacts of counterfeiting on the economy, public health and the environment were widely recognized. Most counterfeits were found at the end of the production chain, in places such as retail stores, restaurants and fishmongers' businesses. By understanding the mechanisms and motivations behind counterfeiting, we can effectively minimize its prevalence.

Análise de fake news veiculadas durante a pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil / Analysis of fake news disseminated during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil / Análisis de las noticias falsas divulgadas durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil

RESUMO Objetivo. Caracterizar as fake news sobre COVID-19 que circularam no Brasil de janeiro a junho de 2020. Métodos. As fake news registradas até 30 de junho de 2020 em dois sites (G1, da corporação Globo, e Ministério da Saúde) foram coletadas e categorizadas de acordo com o seu conteúdo. Para cada notícia enganosa, foram extraídos os seguintes dados: data de circulação, título, canal de divulgação (por exemplo, WhatsApp), formato da divulgação (por exemplo, texto, foto ou vídeo) e portal de registro. Os termos encontrados nos títulos das notícias falsas foram analisados no Google Trends para determinar se houve aumento de buscas no Google com utilização desses termos após a disseminação de uma determinada notícia enganosa. Foram também identificadas as macrorregiões brasileiras com maior porcentagem de aumento nas buscas utilizando os termos analisados. Resultados. Foram identificadas 329 fake news relacionadas à pandemia de COVID-19 nos sites estudados (253 no G1 e 76 no Ministério da Saúde). As fake news foram disseminadas principalmente através de WhatsApp e Facebook. As categorias temáticas mais frequentes foram: política (por exemplo, governantes falsificando a vacinação contra a COVID-19, com 20,1%), epidemiologia e estatística (proporção dos casos e óbitos, 19,5%) e prevenção (16,1%). Conforme o Google Trends, houve um aumento de 34,3% nas buscas que utilizavam termos presentes nas fake news. O maior aumento nas buscas ocorreu no Sudeste (45,1%) e Nordeste (27,8%). Conclusões. As fake news divulgadas durante os primeiros 6 meses da pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil se caracterizaram por conteúdos de posicionamento político e desinformação sobre número de casos e óbitos e medidas de prevenção e de tratamento. Os principais veículos de divulgação foram o WhatsApp e o Facebook, com utilização de mensagens, imagens e vídeos, tendo maior alcance nas regiões Sudeste e Nordeste do país.

ABSTRACT Objective. To describe the characteristics of fake news about COVID-19 disseminated in Brazil from January to June 2020. Method. The fake news recorded until 30 June 2020 in two websites (Globo Corporation website G1 and Ministry of Health) were collected and categorized according to their content. From each piece of fake news, the following information was extracted: publication date, title, channel (e.g., WhatsApp), format (text, photo, video), and website in which it was recorded. Terms were selected from fake news titles for analysis in Google Trends to determine whether the number of searches using the selected terms had increased after the fake news appeared. The Brazilian regions with the highest percent increase in searches using the terms were also identified. Results. In the two websites, 329 fake news about COVID-19 were retrieved. Most fake news were spread through WhatsApp and Facebook. The most frequent thematic categories were: politics (20.1%), epidemiology and statistics (e.g., proportion of cases and deaths) (19.5%), and prevention (16.1%). According to Google Trends, the number of searches using the terms retrieved from the fake news increased 34.3% during the period studied. The largest increase was recorded in the Southeast (45.1%) and the Northeast (27.8%). Conclusions. The fake news spread during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil were characterized by political content as well as misinformation about the number of cases and deaths and about prevention measures and treatment. The main dissemination channels were WhatsApp and Facebook, with the use of messages, images, and videos, with greater reach in the Southeast and Northeast of Brazil.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Analizar algunas características de las noticias falsas sobre la COVID-19 en circulación en Brasil de enero a junio del 2020. Métodos. Se recolectaron las noticias falsas registradas hasta el 30 de junio del 2020 en dos sitios (G1, perteneciente a la Corporación Globo, y el Ministerio de Salud) y se clasificaron de acuerdo con su contenido. Se extrajeron los siguientes datos de cada noticia engañosa: fecha de circulación, título, canal (por ejemplo, WhatsApp) y formato de divulgación (texto, fotografía o video) y portal de registro. Se analizaron en Google Trends los términos encontrados en los títulos de las noticias falsas para determinar si había aumentado el número de búsquedas en Google con esos términos después de la difusión de una noticia engañosa. También se determinaron las macrorregiones brasileñas con el mayor aumento porcentual en las búsquedas hechas con los términos analizados. Resultados. Se encontraron 329 noticias falsas relacionadas con la pandemia de COVID-19 en los sitios estudiados (253 en el G1 y 76 en el Ministerio de Salud). Esas noticias se divulgaron principalmente por medio de WhatsApp y Facebook. Las categorías temáticas más frecuentes fueron política (por ejemplo, falsificación de la vacuna contra la COVID-19 por los gobernantes, 20,1%), epidemiología y estadística (proporción de casos y muertes, 19,5%) y prevención (16,1%). Según Google Trends, aumentaron un 34,3% las búsquedas en las cuales se utilizaban términos contenidos en las noticias falsas. El mayor aumento de esa clase se registró en el sudeste (45,1%) y el nordeste (27,8%) del país. Conclusiones. Las noticias falsas divulgadas durante los seis primeros meses de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil se caracterizaron por contenidos de posicionamiento político y desinformación sobre el número de casos y muertes y sobre las medidas de prevención y tratamiento. Los principales medios de divulgación fueron WhatsApp y Facebook, con utilización de mensajes, imágenes y videos, y un mayor alcance en las regiones sudeste y nordeste del país.

Milk fraud by the addition of whey using an artificial neural network / Identificação de fraude de leite por adição de soro de leite usando redes neurais artificiais

The adulteration of milk by the addition of whey is a problem that concerns national and international authorities. The objective of this research was to quantify the whey content in adulterated milk samples using artificial neural networks, employing routine analyses of dairy milk samples. The analyses were performed with different concentrations of whey (0, 5, 10, and 20%), and samples were analyzed for fat, non-fat solids, density, protein, lactose, minerals, and freezing point, totaling 164 assays, of which 60% were used for network training, 20% for network validation, and 20% for neural network testing. The Garson method was used to determine the importance of the variables. The neural network technique for the determination of milk fraud by the addition of whey proved to be efficient. Among the variables of highest relevance were fat content and density.(AU)

A adulteração do leite pela adição de soro de leite é um problema que diz respeito às autoridades nacionais e internacionais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi quantificar o teor de soro em amostras de leite adulterado por meio de redes neurais artificiais, usando como variáveis de entrada os resultados de análises rotineiras em amostras de leite. As análises foram realizadas com diferentes concentrações em relação à adição de soro de leite (0, 5, 10 e 20%), e as amostras foram analisadas quanto à gordura, sólidos não gordurosos, densidade, proteína, lactose, minerais e ponto de congelamento, totalizando 164 ensaios, dos quais 60% foram utilizados para treinamento em rede, 20% para validação de rede e 20% para teste de rede neural. O método de Garson foi utilizado para determinar a importância das variáveis. A técnica de redes neurais para a determinação da fraude ao leite por adição de soro provou ser eficiente. Entre as variáveis de maior relevância estavam o teor de gordura e a densidade.(AU)

[Counterfeit and contraband drugs in Brazil: overview and prospects for preventing their use]. / Medicamentos falsificados e contrabandeados no Brasil: panorama geral e perspectivas de combate ao seu consumo.

The problem of counterfeit medicines is increasing rapidly, aggravated by globalization and the lure of profit from this illegal activity. Various types of drugs have been counterfeited, posing a serious public health and safety problem. The current article provides an overview of the issue in Brazil and the resulting measures taken by the National Health Surveillance Agency (ANVISA) in collaboration with the Federal Police from 2007 to March 2011. The study analyzed seizures of counterfeit drugs, arrests, and other factors. No professional pharmacist was present in 90% of the establishments were some type of crime occurred (sale of counterfeit drugs and lack of control of narcotics and other drugs). Among the products seized, most were drugs for erectile dysfunction. The study showed the importance of inter-agency collaboration for combatting this type of irregular drug sales.

Falsificação de medicamentos no Brasil / Counterfeiting of drugs in Brazil / Falsificación de medicamentos en Brasil

OBJETIVO: Identificar os principais medicamentos falsificados apreendidos pela Polícia Federal brasileira e os estados em que houve a apreensão. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo descritivo dos laudos periciais elaborados por Peritos Criminais da Polícia Federal sobre medicamentos contrafeitos entre janeiro de 2007 e setembro de 2010. RESULTADOS: Os medicamentos com maior número de apreensões foram inibidores seletivos da fosfodiesterase 5, utilizados para tratar a disfunção erétil masculina (Cialis® e Viagra®, em média 66 por cento), seguidos por esteróides anabolizantes (Durateston® e Hemogenin®, 8,9 por cento e 5,7 por cento, respectivamente). A maior parte dos medicamentos falsos foi apreendida nos estados do Paraná, São Paulo e Santa Catarina, com incremento superior a 200 por cento no número de medicamentos inautênticos encaminhados à perícia no período. Houve aumento nas apreensões de medicamentos contrabandeados arrecadados em conjunto com os falsos; 67 por cento das apreensões incluíram no mínimo um medicamento contrabandeado. CONCLUSÕES: A falsificação de medicamentos é um grave problema de saúde pública. A identificação das classes de medicamentos falsos no País e os principais estados brasileiros com essa problemática podem facilitar ações futuras de prevenção e repressão pelos órgãos brasileiros responsáveis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the main counterfeit drugs seized by the Brazilian Federal Police and the states where seizures have been made. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study on expert reports produced by criminal investigators of the Federal Police between January 2007 and September 2010, in relation to counterfeit drugs, was carried out. RESULTS: The drugs with greatest numbers of seizures were selective phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors that are used for treating male erectile dysfunction (Cialis® and Viagra®, mean = 66 percent ), followed by anabolic steroids (Durateston® and Hemogenin®: 8.9 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively). The greatest proportions of the counterfeit drugs were seized in the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina (both Southeastern Brazil) and São Paulo (Southeastern), and the number of non-authentic drugs sent for investigation increased by more than 200 percent over the study period. There were increases in seizures of smuggled drugs found together with counterfeit drugs: 67 percent of the seizures included at least one smuggled drug. CONCLUSIONS: Counterfeiting of drugs is a severe public health problem. Identification of the classes of counterfeit drugs present in Brazil and the main Brazilian states with this problem may facilitate future preventive and suppressive actions by the Brazilian bodies responsible for such actions.

OBJETIVO: Identificar los principales medicamentos falsificados incautados por la Policía Federal Brasileña y los estados donde hubo incautación. MÉTODOS: Estudio retrospectivo descriptivo de los laudos periciales elaborados por Peritos Criminales de la Policía Federal brasileña sobre medicamentos falsos entre enero de 2007 y septiembre de 2010. RESULTADOS: Los medicamentos con mayor número de incautaciones fueron los inhibidores selectivos de la fosfodiesterasa 5, utilizados para tratar la disfunción eréctil masculina (Ciallis® y Viagra®, en medio 66 por ciento), seguidos por esteroides anabolizantes (Durateston® y Hemogenin®, 8,9 por ciento y 5,7 por ciento, respectivamente). La mayor parte de los medicamentos falsos fue incautada en los estados Paraná, Sao Paulo y Santa Catarina, con incremento superior a 200 por ciento en el número de medicamentos inauténticos encaminados a la pericia en el período. Hubo aumento en las incautaciones de medicamentos contrabandeados arrecadados en conjunto con los falsos, 67 por ciento de las incautaciones incluyeron al menos un medicamento contrabandeado. CONCLUSIONES: La falsificación de medicamentos es un grave problema de salud pública. La identificación de las clases de medicamentos falsos en Brasil y los principales estados brasileños con esta problemática pueden facilitar acciones futuras de prevención y represión por los órganos brasileños responsables.

Counterfeiting of drugs in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the main counterfeit drugs seized by the Brazilian Federal Police and the states where seizures have been made. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study on expert reports produced by criminal investigators of the Federal Police between January 2007 and September 2010, in relation to counterfeit drugs, was carried out. RESULTS: The drugs with greatest numbers of seizures were selective phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors that are used for treating male erectile dysfunction (Cialis® and Viagra®, mean = 66% ), followed by anabolic steroids (Durateston® and Hemogenin®: 8.9% and 5.7%, respectively). The greatest proportions of the counterfeit drugs were seized in the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina (both Southeastern Brazil) and São Paulo (Southeastern), and the number of non-authentic drugs sent for investigation increased by more than 200% over the study period. There were increases in seizures of smuggled drugs found together with counterfeit drugs: 67% of the seizures included at least one smuggled drug. CONCLUSIONS: Counterfeiting of drugs is a severe public health problem. Identification of the classes of counterfeit drugs present in Brazil and the main Brazilian states with this problem may facilitate future preventive and suppressive actions by the Brazilian bodies responsible for such actions.

[Counterfeit pharmaceuticals in Peru]. / Los medicamentos falsificados en Perú

OBJECTIVE: To determine the quantity of counterfeit pharmaceutical drugs found by the National Quality Control Center (Centro Nacional de Control de Calidad (CNCC), Instituto Nacional de Salud, Peru) during the period from 2005&2008, and the types and properties of these drugs. METHODS: A form was created to amass the relevant data collected directly from CNCC reports. The reports underwent a review and analysis process, and where counterfeiting was confirmed, it was categorized by type into one of four groups. RESULTS: The percentage of counterfeit drugs relative to the total drugs evaluated was: 3.0% in 2005, 5.0% in 2006, 7.3% in 2007, and 9.2% in 2008. The main groups of counterfeit drugs, classified according to the World Health Organization Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System, were: alimentary tract and metabolism, 34.5% (29.1%-39.8%); antiinfectives for systemic use, 21.1% (16.5%-25.7%); nervous system, 17.1% (12.8%-21.3%); and musculo-skeletal system, 15.4% (11.3%-19.5%). The most common type of forgery occurred in cases where the drug contained the correct amount of active ingredients, but the manufacturer was one other than the one indicated (62.4% of the total counterfeit drugs); and medications that did not contain any active ingredient (22.4%). Of the counterfeit drugs, 61.0% (56.0%-67.0%) were national brands and 39.0%, (33.0%-44.0%) were imported. The pharmaceutical formulations with the highest rate of forgery were tablets, 66.0% (60.0%-71.0%); injectables, 19.0% (14.0%-23.0%); and capsules 7.0% (4.0%-10.0%). CONCLUSIONS: From 2005-2008, drug counterfeiting had an average annual variation of 45%. Drug counterfeiting was shown to be most prevalent among national brands - as opposed to imported medications - although the types and formulations of the fake drugs attest to a certain level of sophistication employed in the forgery process. The counterfeiting of life-saving drugs, such as antimicrobials, signifies a serious public health threat.

Los medicamentos falsificados en Perú / Counterfeit pharmaceuticals in Peru

Objetivo: Determinar la cantidad de medicamentos falsificados detectados en el Centro Nacional de Control de Calidad (CNCC) (Instituto Nacional de Salud, Perú) en el periodo 2005-2008 y determinar sus tipos y características. Métodos: Se preparó una ficha para la recolección de los datos pertinentes, los cuales fueron tomados directamente de los informes emitidos por el CNCC. Estos informes fueron sometidos a un proceso de revisión y evaluación, y aquellos en los que se confirmó la falsificación fueron clasificados en cuatro grupos, según el tipo de falsificación. Resultados: El porcentaje de medicamentos falsificados con relación al total de medicamentos analizados fue de 3,0 por ciento en 2005, 5,0 por ciento en 2006, 7,3 por ciento en 2007 y 9,2 por ciento en 2008. Los principales grupos de medicamentos falsificados según la clasificación ATC de la OMS fueron: tracto alimentario y metabolismo, 34,5 por ciento (29,1 por ciento-39,8 por ciento); antiinfecciosos para uso sistémico, 21,1 por ciento (16,5 por ciento-25,7 por ciento); sistema nervioso, 17,1 por ciento (12,8 por ciento-21,3 por ciento); y sistema musculoesquelético, 15,4 por ciento (11,3 por ciento-19,5 por ciento). Los tipos de falsificación predominantes fueron aquellos donde el medicamento contenía la dosis correcta del principio activo pero el fabricante era distinto al declarado (62,4 por ciento, sobre el total de medicamentos falsificados), y aquellos donde el medicamento no contenía ningún principio activo (22,4 por ciento). El 61,0 por ciento (56,0 por ciento-67,0 por ciento) de los medicamentos falsificados fueron nacionales y 39,0 por ciento (33,0 por ciento-44,0 por ciento), importados. Las formas farmacéuti-cas con mayores tasas de falsificación incluyeron comprimidos, 66,0 por ciento (60,0 por ciento-71,0 por ciento), inyectables, 19,0 por ciento (14,0 por ciento-23,0 por ciento) y cápsulas, 7,0 por ciento (4,0 por ciento-10,0 por ciento)...

Objective: To determine the quantity of counterfeit pharmaceutical drugs found by the National Quality Control Center (Centro Nacional de Control de Calidad (CNCC), Instituto Nacional de Salud, Peru) during the period from 2005&2008, and the types and properties of these drugs. Methods: A form was created to amass the relevant data collected directly from CNCC reports. The reports underwent a review and analysis process, and where counterfeiting was confirmed, it was categorized by type into one of four groups. RESULTS: The percentage of counterfeit drugs relative to the total drugs evaluated was: 3.0 percent in 2005, 5.0 percent in 2006, 7.3 percent in 2007, and 9.2 percent in 2008. The main groups of counterfeit drugs, classified according to the World Health Organization Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System, were: alimentary tract and metabolism, 34.5 percent (29.1 percent&39.8 percent); antiinfectives for systemic use, 21.1 percent (16.5 percent&25.7 percent); nervous system, 17.1 percent (12.8 percent&21.3 percent); and musculo-skeletal system, 15.4 percent (11.3 percent&19.5 percent). The most common type of forgery occurred in cases where the drug contained the correct amount of active ingredients, but the manufacturer was one other than the one indicated (62.4 percent of the total counterfeit drugs); and medications that did not contain any active ingredient (22.4 percent). Of the counterfeit drugs, 61.0 percent (56.0 percent&67.0 percent) were national brands and 39.0 percent, (33.0 percent&44.0 percent) were imported. The pharmaceutical formulations with the highest rate of forgery were tablets, 66.0 percent (60.0 percent&71.0 percent); injectables, 19.0 percent (14.0 percent&23.0 percent); and capsules 7.0 percent (4.0 percent&10.0 percent). Conclusions: From 2005&2008, drug counterfeiting had an average annual variation of 45 percent. Drug counterfeiting was shown to be most prevalent among national brands...

[Fraud in the health systems of Chile: a detection model]. / Fraudes a los sistemas de salud en Chile: un modelo para su detección.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model for detecting cases of organized fraud in Chile based on data from the legal forms for medically authorized leave (formulario legal de licencia médica curativa-MAL) and to establish the relevance of this data to fraud detection. METHODS: A binomial logistic regression model was employed using four variables from the MAL form, a national requirement for illness-related work absences: the number of legal absences taken by a single person, the number of days authorized by the prescribing doctor, the total cost per illness, and a dichotic variable reflecting whether or not the diagnosis is one that can be proven. The analysis involved 4,079 MAL forms that had been submitted in 2003 to a private health provider and of which 356 were already identified as fraudulent by a panel of medical fraud experts. RESULTS: The model successfully identified 99.71% of the fraudulent medical authorizations and 99.86% of the non-fraudulent, according to the criteria of the panel of fraud experts. Three of the variables employed had statistically-significant independent predictive power. The positive predictive value of the proposed model was 98.59%, while its negative predictive value was 99.97%. CONCLUSIONS: The binomial logistic model that was developed uses four variables that are common to all MAL forms in use by Chile's public as well as private insurers, permitting separation of fraudulent from non-fraudulent requests to be more accurate, more timely, and at a cost lower that of an expert panel.

Fraudes a los sistemas de salud en Chile: un modelo para su detección / Fraud in the health systems of Chile: a detection model

OBJETIVOS: Desarrollar un modelo para detectar casos de fraude planificado en Chile a partir de los datos contenidos en los formularios de licencia médica curativa (LMC) y establecer la contribución relativa de esos datos a su detección. MÉTODOS: SE aplicó un modelo de regresión logística binominal a partir de cuatro variables contenidas en el formulario legal de LMC exigido nacionalmente para justificar las ausencias al trabajo por motivos de enfermedad: el número de licencias médicas asignadas a una misma persona, el número de días de licencia médica otorgados por el médico tratante, el monto total a pagar por la enfermedad y una variable dicotómica que refleja si el diagnóstico es comprobable o no. Se analizaron 4 079 LMC presentadas el año 2003 a una institución privada de salud previsional, de las cuales 356 estaban ya clasificadas como fraudulentas por un panel de médicos expertos en fraude. RESULTADOS: El modelo logró identificar correctamente 99,71 por ciento de las licencias médicas fraudulentas y 99,86 por ciento de las no fraudulentas según el criterio del panel de expertos en fraude. Tres de las variables empleadas presentaron un poder predictivo independiente estadísticamente significativo. El valor predictivo positivo del modelo propuesto fue de 98,59 por ciento, mientras el valor predictivo negativo fue de 99,97 por ciento. CONCLUSIONES: El modelo logístico binomial desarrollado, basado en cuatro variables de uso universal en los formularios de LMC utilizados por todas las entidades aseguradoras de Chile, tanto públicas como privadas, permite discriminar de forma precisa y más rápidamente y con menor costo que los paneles de expertos las solicitudes fraudulentas de las no fraudulentas.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model for detecting cases of organized fraud in Chile based on data from the legal forms for medically authorized leave (formulario legal de licencia médica curativa-MAL) and to establish the relevance of this data to fraud detection. METHODS: A binomial logistic regression model was employed using four variables from the MAL form, a national requirement for illness-related work absences: the number of legal absences taken by a single person, the number of days authorized by the prescribing doctor, the total cost per illness, and a dichotic variable reflecting whether or not the diagnosis is one that can be proven. The analysis involved 4 079 MAL forms that had been submitted in 2003 to a private health provider and of which 356 were already identified as fraudulent by a panel of medical fraud experts. RESULTS: The model successfully identified 99.71 percent of the fraudulent medical authorizations and 99.86 percent of the non-fraudulent, according to the criteria of the panel of fraud experts. Three of the variables employed had statistically-significant independent predictive power. The positive predictive value of the proposed model was 98.59 percent, while its negative predictive value was 99.97 percent. CONCLUSIONS: The binomial logistic model that was developed uses four variables that are common to all MAL forms in use by Chile's public as well as private insurers, permitting separation of fraudulent from non-fraudulent requests to be more accurate, more timely, and at a cost lower that of an expert panel.