The effects of ambient temperature on road traffic injuries in Jinan city: a time-stratified case-crossover study based on distributed lag nonlinear model.

Objectives: The impact of climate change, especially extreme temperatures, on health outcomes has become a global public health concern. Most previous studies focused on the impact of disease incidence or mortality, whereas much less has been done on road traffic injuries (RTIs). This study aimed to explore the effects of ambient temperature, particularly extreme temperature, on road traffic deaths in Jinan city. Methods: Daily data on road traffic deaths and meteorological factors were collected among all residents in Jinan city during 2011-2020. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the association between daily mean temperature, especially extreme temperature and road traffic deaths, and its variation in different subgroups of transportation mode, adjusting for meteorological confounders. Results: A total of 9,794 road traffic deaths were collected in our study. The results showed that extreme temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from road traffic injuries and four main subtypes of transportation mode, including walking, Bicycle, Motorcycle and Motor vehicle (except motorcycles), with obviously lag effects. Meanwhile, the negative effects of extreme high temperatures were significantly higher than those of extreme low temperatures. Under low-temperature exposure, the highest cumulative lag effect of 1.355 (95% CI, 1.054, 1.742) for pedal cyclists when cumulated over lag 0 to 6 day, and those for pedestrians, motorcycles and motor vehicle occupants all persisted until 14 days, with ORs of 1.227 (95% CI, 1.102, 1.367), 1.453 (95% CI, 1.214, 1.740) and 1.202 (95% CI, 1.005, 1.438), respectively. Under high-temperature exposure, the highest cumulative lag effect of 3.106 (95% CI, 1.646, 5.861) for motorcycle occupants when cumulated over lag 0 to 12 day, and those for pedestrian, pedal cyclists, and motor vehicle accidents all peaked when persisted until 14 days, with OR values of 1.638 (95% CI, 1.281, 2.094), 2.603 (95% CI, 1.695, 3.997) and 1.603 (95% CI, 1.066, 2.411), respectively. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that ambient temperature is significantly associated with the risk of road traffic injuries accompanied by obvious lag effect, and the associations differ by the mode of transportation. Our findings help to promote a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between temperature and road traffic injuries, which can be used to establish appropriate public health policies and targeted interventions.

Classification of trauma-related preventable death; protocol of a Delphi procedure.

BACKGROUND: Trauma-related (preventable) death is used to evaluate the management and quality of trauma care worldwide. Therefore, it is necessary to identify fatalities in the trauma care population and assess them on preventability. However, the definition on trauma-related preventable death lacks validity due to differences in terminology and classifications. This study aims to reach consensus on the definition of trauma-related preventable death by performing a Delphi procedure, thereby, improving the assessment of trauma-related preventable death and thereby enhancing the quality of trauma care. METHODS: Based on the results of a recently performed systematic review Hakkenbrak (2021). The definitions used to describe trauma-related preventable death could be divided into four categories: 1) Clinical definition based on panel review or expert opinion, 2) Trauma prediction algorithm, 3) Clinical definition with an additional trauma prediction algorithm and 4) Others (e.g., errors in care or detailed clinical definition). A three round, electronic Delphi study will be performed in the Netherlands to reach consensus. Experts from the department of Trauma surgery, Neurosurgery, Forensic medicine, Anaesthesiology and Emergency medicine, of the designated Level 1 trauma centres in the Netherlands, will be invited to participate. In the first round the panel will comment on the composed categories and trauma prediction algorithms. In the second and third round a feedback report will be presented and the questions with disagreement will be retested. DISCUSSION: The identification and assessment of trauma-related preventable death is necessary to evaluate and improve trauma care. Therefore, a valid, fair, and applicable definition of trauma-related preventable death is required. The Delphi technique is utilized to reach group consensus to obtain a scientifically valid definition of trauma-related preventable death.

Effect of Rural Trauma Team Development on the Outcomes of Motorcycle Accident-Related Injuries (Motor Registry Project): Protocol for a Multicenter Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Injury is a global health concern, and injury-related mortality disproportionately impacts low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Compelling evidence from observational studies in high-income countries shows that trauma education programs, such as the Rural Trauma Team Development Course (RTTDC), increase clinician knowledge of injury care. There is a dearth of such evidence from controlled clinical trials to demonstrate the effect of the RTTDC on process and patient outcomes in LMICs. OBJECTIVE: This multicenter cluster randomized controlled clinical trial aims to examine the impact of the RTTDC on process and patient outcomes associated with motorcycle accident-related injuries in an African low-resource setting. METHODS: This is a 2-arm, parallel, multi-period, cluster randomized, controlled, clinical trial in Uganda, where rural trauma team development training is not routinely conducted. We will recruit regional referral hospitals and include patients with motorcycle accident-related injuries, interns, medical trainees, and road traffic law enforcement professionals. The intervention group (RTTDC) and control group (standard care) will include 3 hospitals each. The primary outcomes will be the interval from the accident to hospital admission and the interval from the referral decision to hospital discharge. The secondary outcomes will be all-cause mortality and morbidity associated with neurological and orthopedic injuries at 90 days after injury. All outcomes will be measured as final values. We will compare baseline characteristics and outcomes at both individual and cluster levels between the intervention and control groups. We will use mixed effects regression models to report any absolute or relative differences along with 95% CIs. We will perform subgroup analyses to evaluate and control confounding due to injury mechanisms and injury severity. We will establish a motorcycle trauma outcome (MOTOR) registry in consultation with community traffic police. RESULTS: The trial was approved on August 27, 2019. The actual recruitment of the first patient participant began on September 01, 2019. The last follow-up was on August 27, 2023. Posttrial care, including linkage to clinical, social support, and referral services, is to be completed by November 27, 2023. Data analyses will be performed in Spring 2024, and the results are expected to be published in Autumn 2024. CONCLUSIONS: This trial will unveil how a locally contextualized rural trauma team development program impacts organizational efficiency in a continent challenged with limited infrastructure and human resources. Moreover, this trial will uncover how rural trauma team coordination impacts clinical outcomes, such as mortality and morbidity associated with neurological and orthopedic injuries, which are the key targets for strengthening trauma systems in LMICs where prehospital care is in the early stage. Our results could inform the design, implementation, and scalability of future rural trauma teams and trauma education programs in LMICs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR202308851460352); https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=25763. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/55297.

Terrorist attacks in Iran: A counter-terrorism medicine analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Terrorism is a combined phenomenon, the concept of which is strongly affected by the spatial and temporal situation. Terrorist attacks can affect the demand for and delivery of healthcare services and often put a unique burden on the first responders, hospitals, and health systems. This study provides an epidemiological description of all -terrorist-related attacks in Iran from 1979 to 2020. METHODS: Data were collected using a retrospective search through Global Terrorism Database (GTD). GTD was searched using internal database search functions for all incidents that occurred in Iran from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2020. The target type, attack type, primary weapon type, perpetrator group, country where the incident occurred, and the number of fatalities and injuries were collected, and the results were analyzed. RESULTS: In total, 543 terrorist attacks were identified in the study period, which resulted in the fatality of 1,150 people and the injury of 3,792 people. It indicates 2.12 fatalities and 7,009 injuries per incident. Explosives were used in 301 attacks (55.63 percent), followed by incendiary weapons in 177 attacks (32.71 percent). The most significant types of attacks are bombings in 290 attacks (52.3 percent), followed by assassination in 99 attacks (17.9 percent), and armed assaults in 81 attacks (14.6 percent). CONCLUSION: Due to a decreasing trend of terrorist incidents in Iran, we can state that national security and stability have improved in Iran. However, the development of security promotion policies and passive defense approaches can help prevent the occurrence of such incidents.

The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy.

The paper presents an exploratory study of a road safety policy index developed for Norway. The index consists of ten road safety measures for which data on their use from 1980 to 2021 are available. The ten measures were combined into an index which had an initial value of 50 in 1980 and increased to a value of 185 in 2021. To assess the application of the index in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, negative binomial regression models and multivariate time series models were developed for traffic fatalities, fatalities and serious injuries, and all injuries. The coefficient for the policy index was negative, indicating the road safety policy has contributed to reducing the number of fatalities and injuries. The size of this contribution can be estimated by means of at least three estimators that do not always produce identical values. There is little doubt about the sign of the relationship: a stronger road safety policy (as indicated by index values) is associated with a larger decline in fatalities and injuries. A precise quantification is, however, not possible. Different estimators of effect, all of which can be regarded as plausible, yield different results.

Impact of ABO blood group on mortality in trauma patients: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Haemorrhage is a significant cause of death in trauma patients. There is evidence that individuals with blood group O have higher rates of non-traumatic haemorrhage. It has been suggested that blood group O may be associated with higher mortality in trauma, however existing evidence is limited and conflicting. OBJECTIVE: A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the impact of ABO blood group on mortality in trauma patients. METHODS: MEDLINE via OVID, the Cochrane library and grey literature were searched to identify studies investigating the effect of ABO blood group on mortality of trauma patients admitted to hospital. PRISMA guidelines were followed throughout, study quality was assessed using CASP checklists and certainty of evidence was evaluated using GRADE. Meta-analysis was precluded by significant study heterogeneity. RESULTS: 180 relevant records were screened and seven studies met inclusion criteria, representing 12,240 patients. Two studies found that there was a higher mortality in blood group O compared to other ABO groups. Included studies had substantial variability in methods and population. Study quality was variable with certainty of evidence rated as very low. CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to definitively establish an association between mortality and ABO group in trauma patients. In an age of increasingly individualised care, there is a need to determine the existence and cause for any association through further studies across multiple settings, trauma mechanisms and populations.

Early Vital Sign Thresholds Associated with 24-Hour Mortality among Trauma Patients: A Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) Study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at imminent risk of death is critical in the management of trauma patients. This study measures the vital sign thresholds associated with death among trauma patients. METHODS: This study included data from patients ≥15 years of age in the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database. Patients with vital signs of zero were excluded. Documented prehospital and emergency department (ED) vital signs included systolic pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and calculated shock index (SI). The area under the receiver operator curves (AUROC) was used to assess the accuracy of these variables for predicting 24-hour survival. Optimal thresholds to predict mortality were identified using Youden's Index, 90% specificity, and 90% sensitivity. Additional analyses examined patients 70+ years of age. RESULTS: There were 1,439,221 subjects in the 2019-2020 datasets that met inclusion for this analysis with <0.1% (10,270) who died within 24 hours. The optimal threshold for prehospital systolic pressure was 110, pulse rate was 110, SI was 0.9, and respiratory rate was 15. The optimal threshold for the ED systolic was 112, pulse rate was 107, SI was 0.9, and respiratory rate was 21. Among the elderly sub-analysis, the optimal threshold for prehospital systolic was 116, pulse rate was 100, SI was 0.8, and respiratory rate was 21. The optimal threshold for ED systolic was 121, pulse rate was 95, SI was 0.8, and respiratory rate was 0.8. CONCLUSIONS: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and SI offered the best predictor of mortality among trauma patients. The SBP values predictive of mortality were significantly higher than the traditional 90mmHg threshold. This dataset highlights the need for better methods to guide resuscitation as initial vital signs have limited accuracy in predicting subsequent mortality.

A retrospective analysis of mission reports in the national Swedish Police Registry on mountain rescue 2018-2022: here be snowmobiles.

BACKGROUND: Increasing mountain activity and decreasing participant preparedness, as well as climate change, suggest needs to tailor mountain rescue. In Sweden, previous medical research of these services are lacking. The aim of the study is to describe Swedish mountain rescue missions as a basis for future studies, public education, resource allocation, and rescuer training. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all mission reports in the national Swedish Police Registry on Mountain Rescue 2018-2022 (n = 1543). Outcome measures were frequencies and characteristics of missions, casualties, fatalities, traumatic injuries, medical conditions, and incident mechanisms. RESULTS: Jämtland county had the highest proportion of missions (38%), followed by Norrbotten county (36%). 2% of missions involved ≥ 4 casualties, and 44% involved ≥ 4 mountain rescuers. Helicopter use was recorded in 59% of missions. Non-Swedish citizens were rescued in 12% of missions. 37% of casualties were females. 14% of casualties were ≥ 66 or ≤ 12 years of age. Of a total 39 fatalities, cardiac event (n = 14) was the most frequent cause of death, followed by trauma (n = 10) and drowning (n = 8). There was one avalanche fatality. 8 fatalities were related to snowmobiling, and of the total 1543 missions, 309 (20%) were addressing snowmobiling incidents. Of non-fatal casualties, 431 involved a medical condition, of which 90 (21%) suffered hypothermia and 73 (17%) cardiovascular illness. CONCLUSIONS: These baseline data suggest snowmobiling, cardiac events, drownings, multi-casualty incidents, and backcountry internal medicine merit future study and intervention.

[Epidemic characteristics and trend analysis of major injuries deaths among children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021].

Objective: To understand the situation and epidemic characteristics of injury deaths among children aged 5 to 24 years in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 and the trend of annual changes. Methods: The main injury mortality data of children and adolescents was collected, and the crude and standardized mortality rates of road traffic accidents, drowning, suicide, and accidental falls among children and adolescents over a decade and the annual average percentage of change (AAPC) were calculated. The main injury mortality characteristics and trends of children and adolescents of different age groups and genders were analyzed. Results: The total number of injury deaths among 5 to 24 adolescents in Jiangsu Province was 16 052, with a standardized mortality rate of 9.58/100 000. There was no significant trend in the overall standardized mortality rate of injuries (AAPC=-3.450%, P=0.055). The standardized mortality rate of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents showed a decreasing trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=-9.406%, P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=9.000%, P=0.001). The overall injury mortality rate showed an upward trend with age. Suicide rates in males and females were on the rise and both have statistical significance (AAPC=9.420% and AAPC=9.607%, both P<0.05). The standardized mortality rates of female traffic accidents, drowning, and male traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and were statistically significant (AAPC for female traffic accidents=-7.364%, AAPC for female drowning=-5.352%, and AAPC for male traffic accidents=-10.242%, all P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate of urban and rural traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and was statistically significant(AAPC=-7.899% and AAPC=-9.421%, both P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend and statistical significance (AAPC=11.009% and AAPC=7.528%, both P<0.05). Conclusions: The overall injury situation of children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province improved in the past decade from 2012 to 2021, but the suicide mortality rate was on the rise. It is necessary to focus on the mental health issues of this age group and to strengthen the prevention and control of suicide among children and adolescents, in Jiangsu.

Use of Reverse Shock Index Multiplied by Simplified Motor Score in a Five-Level Triage System: Identifying Trauma in Adult Patients at a High Risk of Mortality.

Background and Objectives: The Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) is reliable for triaging patients in emergency departments in Taiwan; however, most triage decisions are still based on chief complaints. The reverse-shock index (SI) multiplied by the simplified motor score (rSI-sMS) is a more comprehensive approach to triage that combines the SI and a modified consciousness assessment. We investigated the combination of the TTAS and rSI-sMS for triage compared with either parameter alone as well as the SI and modified SI. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 13,144 patients with trauma from the Taipei Tzu Chi Trauma Database. We investigated the prioritization performance of the TTAS, rSI-sMS, and their combination. A subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the trends in all clinical outcomes for different rSI-sMS values. The sensitivity and specificity of rSI-sMS were investigated at a cutoff value of 4 (based on previous study and the highest score of the Youden Index) in predicting injury severity clinical outcomes under the TTAS system were also investigated. Results: Compared with patients in triage level III, those in triage levels I and II had higher odds ratios for major injury (as indicated by revised trauma score < 7 and injury severity score [ISS] ≥ 16), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, prolonged ICU stay (≥14 days), prolonged hospital stay (≥30 days), and mortality. In all three triage levels, the rSI-sMS < 4 group had severe injury and worse outcomes than the rSI-sMS ≥ 4 group. The TTAS and rSI-sMS had higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for mortality, ICU admission, prolonged ICU stay, and prolonged hospital stay than the SI and modified SI. The combination of the TTAS and rSI-sMS had the highest AUROC for all clinical outcomes. The prediction performance of rSI-sMS < 4 for major injury (ISS ≥ 16) exhibited 81.49% specificity in triage levels I and II and 87.6% specificity in triage level III. The specificity for mortality was 79.2% in triage levels I and II and 87.4% in triage level III. Conclusions: The combination of rSI-sMS and the TTAS yielded superior prioritization performance to TTAS alone. The integration of rSI-sMS and TTAS effectively enhances the efficiency and accuracy of identifying trauma patients at a high risk of mortality.

Level One Trauma Center Proliferation May Worsen Patient Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: From 2013 to 2020, Arizona state trauma system expanded from seven to thirteen level 1 trauma centers (L1TCs). This study utilized the state trauma registry to analyze the effect of L1TC proliferation on patient outcomes. METHODS: Adult patients age≥15 in the state trauma registry from 2007-2020 were queried for demographic, injury, and outcome variables. These variables were compared across the 2 time periods: 2007-2012 as pre-proliferation (PRE) and 2013-2020 as post-proliferation (POST). Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess independent predictors of mortality. Subgroup analyses were done for Injury Severity Score (ISS)≥15, age≥65, and trauma mechanisms. RESULTS: A total of 482,896 trauma patients were included in this study. 40% were female, 29% were geriatric patients, and 8.6% sustained penetrating trauma. The median ISS was 4. Inpatient mortality overall was 2.7%. POST consisted of more female, geriatric, and blunt trauma patients (P < .001). Both periods had similar median ISS. POST had more interfacility transfers (14.5% vs 10.3%, P < .001). Inpatient, unadjusted mortality decreased by .5% in POST (P < .001). After adjusting for age, gender, ISS, and trauma mechanism, being in POST was predictive of death (OR: 1.4, CI:1.3-1.5, P < .001). This was consistent across all subgroups except for geriatric subgroup, which there was no significant correlation. DISCUSSION: Despite advances in trauma care and almost doubling of L1TCs, POST had minimal reduction of unadjusted mortality and was an independent predictor of death. Results suggest increasing number of L1TCs alone may not improve mortality. Alternative approaches should be sought with future regional trauma system design and implementation.

Analyzing the Impact of Concomitant COVID-19 Infection on Outcomes in Trauma Patients.

BACKGROUND: The impact of COVID-19 infection at the time of traumatic injury remains understudied. Previous studies demonstrate that the rate of COVID-19 vaccination among trauma patients remains lower than in the general population. This study aims to understand the impact of concomitant COVID-19 infection on outcomes in trauma patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years old admitted to a level I trauma center from March 2020 to December 2022. Patients tested for COVID-19 infection using a rapid antigen/PCR test were included. We matched patients using 2:1 propensity accounting for age, gender, race, comorbidities, vaccination status, injury severity score (ISS), type and mechanism of injury, and GCS at arrival. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), Intensive Care Unit (ICU) LOS, 30-day readmission, and major complications. RESULTS: Of the 4448 patients included, 168 (3.8%) were positive (COV+). Compared with COVID-19-negative (COV-) patients, COV+ patients were similar in age, sex, BMI, ISS, type of injury, and regional AIS. The proportion of White and non-Hispanic patients was higher in COV- patients. Following matching, 154 COV+ and 308 COV- patients were identified. COVID-19-positive patients had a higher rate of mortality (7.8% vs 2.6%; P = .010), major complications (15.6% vs 8.4%; P = .020), and thrombotic complications (3.9% vs .6%; P = .012). Patients also had a longer hospital LOS (median, 9 vs 5 days; P < .001) and ICU LOS (median, 5 vs 3 days; P = .025). CONCLUSIONS: Trauma patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection have higher mortality and morbidity in the matched population. Focused interventions aimed at recognizing this high-risk group and preventing COVID-19 infection within it should be undertaken.

Nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in trauma patients undergoing resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta: a retrospective multicenter study.

Recently, resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) had been introduced as an innovative procedure for severe hemorrhage in the abdomen or pelvis. We aimed to investigate risk factors associated with mortality after REBOA and construct a model for predicting mortality. This multicenter retrospective study collected data from 251 patients admitted at five regional trauma centers across South Korea from 2015 to 2022. The indications for REBOA included patients experiencing hypovolemic shock due to hemorrhage in the abdomen, pelvis, or lower extremities, and those who were non-responders (systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg) to initial fluid treatment. The primary and secondary outcomes were mortality due to exsanguination and overall mortality, respectively. After feature selection using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model to minimize overfitting, a multivariate logistic regression (MLR) model and nomogram were constructed. In the MLR model using risk factors selected in the LASSO, five risk factors, including initial heart rate (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.00; p = 0.030), initial Glasgow coma scale (aOR, 0.86; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.001), RBC transfusion within 4 h (unit, aOR, 1.12; 95% CI 1.07-1.17; p < 0.001), balloon occlusion type (reference: partial occlusion; total occlusion, aOR, 2.53; 95% CI 1.27-5.02; p = 0.008; partial + total occlusion, aOR, 2.04; 95% CI 0.71-5.86; p = 0.187), and post-REBOA systolic blood pressure (SBP) (aOR, 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality due to exsanguination. The prediction model showed an area under curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.855, 73.2%, and 83.6%, respectively. Decision curve analysis showed that the predictive model had increased net benefits across a wide range of threshold probabilities. This study developed a novel intuitive nomogram for predicting mortality in patients undergoing REBOA. Our proposed model exhibited excellent performance and revealed that total occlusion was associated with poor outcomes, with post-REBOA SBP potentially being an effective surrogate measure.

Risk of road traffic injury in Norway 1970-2022.

This paper describes changes in the risk of road traffic injury in Norway during the period from 1970 to 2022. During this period, the risk of fatal and personal injury declined by more than 70 % for most groups of road users. There are five main potential explanations of a decline in the risk of injury: (1) a reduced probability of accidents that have the potential for causing injury; (2) an improved protection against injury given that an accident has occurred; (3) improved medical care increasing the survival rate, given an injury (this would reduce the number of fatalities, but not the number of injuries); (4) a tendency for the reporting of injuries in official accident statistics to decline over time; (5) uncertain or erroneous estimates of the exposure to the risk of injury. The decline in the risk of road traffic injuries in Norway after 1970 can probably be attributed to a combination of reduced reporting of injuries in official statistics, improved protection against injury in accidents, and (for fatal injuries) improved medical care. Insurance data, available from 1992, do not indicate a reduction in the risk of accidents leading to insurance claims. Incomplete and possibly erroneous data for mopeds and motorcycles make it impossible to identify sources of changes in injury risk over time for these modes of transport.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Understanding the health system utilisation and reasons for avoidable mortality after fatal injury within a Three-Delays framework in Karonga, Northern Malawi: a retrospective analysis of verbal autopsy data.

OBJECTIVES: To use verbal autopsy (VA) data to understand health system utilisation and the potential avoidability associated with fatal injury. Then to categorise any evident barriers driving avoidable delays to care within a Three-Delays framework that considers delays to seeking (Delay 1), reaching (Delay 2) or receiving (Delay 3) quality injury care. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of existing VA data routinely collected by a demographic surveillance site. SETTING: Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) population, Northern Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: Fatally injured members of the HDSS. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of fatal injury deaths that were potentially avoidable. Secondary outcomes were the delay stage and corresponding barriers associated with avoidable deaths and the health system utilisation for fatal injuries within the health system. RESULTS: Of the 252 deaths due to external causes, 185 injury-related deaths were analysed. Deaths were predominantly among young males (median age 30, IQR 11-48), 71.9% (133/185). 35.1% (65/185) were assessed as potentially avoidable. Delay 1 was implicated in 30.8% (20/65) of potentially avoidable deaths, Delay 2 in 61.5% (40/65) and Delay 3 in 75.4% (49/65). Within Delay 1, 'healthcare literacy' was most commonly implicated barrier in 75% (15/20). Within Delay 2, 'communication' and 'prehospital care' were the most commonly implicated in 92.5% (37/40). Within Delay 3, 'physical resources' were most commonly implicated, 85.7% (42/49). CONCLUSIONS: VA is feasible for studying pathways to care and health system responsiveness in avoidable deaths following injury and ascertaining the delays that contribute to deaths. A large proportion of injury deaths were avoidable, and we have identified several barriers as potential targets for intervention. Refining and integrating VA with other health system assessment methods is likely necessary to holistically understand an injury care health system.

Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Trauma Patients at Extreme Risk of Mortality: A Time-Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 2014 expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) reshaped healthcare delivery in the United States. This study assessed how Medicaid expansion affected in-hospital mortality in patients with extreme risk of mortality (EROM) from traumatic injuries. METHODS: Data from inpatients aged 18-64 years, registered in the National Inpatient Sample between 2007 and 2020, and identified with trauma-related All-Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Groups (APRDRG) codes, were analyzed. Within this group, a subset of patients was selected based on the APRDRG classification identifying them as at EROM for the principal unit of analysis. The cohort was divided into high-implementation (HIR) and low-implementation (LIR) regions based on Medicaid expansion coverage. In-hospital mortality was assessed using interrupted time-series analysis. Sensitivity analyses considered seasonality, autocorrelation, and exogenous events. RESULTS: Analysis encompassed 70 381 trauma inpatient stays, corresponding to 346 659 patients based on National Inpatient Sample weighting. There was a consistent monthly decline in in-hospital mortality of .08% (95% CI: -.103 to -.048; P < .001) prior to Medicaid expansion, a trend unaffected by expansion. This pattern persisted across both LIR and HIR Medicaid implementation regions. Although Medicaid enrollment increased in HIR, that in LIR remained unchanged. DISCUSSION: Over the study period, the in-hospital mortality among severely injured patients consistently decreased, and this trend was not influenced by Medicaid expansion. The statistical models and results from this study can offer valuable guidance to policymakers and healthcare leaders as they formulate more efficient and effective policies.

Delayed vs Early Admission to Intensive Care: A Retrospective Review of Outcomes and Clinical Indicators of Deterioration Following Trauma.

Unplanned admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) is a trauma quality improvement indicator associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and hospital resource usage. We identified demographics, injuries, and other clinical factors between early ICU admission, <72 hrs after admission (EAd), and delayed admission, >72 hrs (DelAd) from a medical/surgical floor. 146 trauma patients admitted to ICU at a level 1 trauma center from January 2020 to March 2023 met inclusion criteria and were divided into EAd and DelAd. No statistical differences in injury mechanism or severity were observed. Delayed admission demonstrated higher mortality (P = .001), more frequent decline in GCS (P = .045), and initiation of anticoagulation (P = .002). Abnormal EKG, orthopedic surgery during admission, and home anticoagulant and antidepressant use were statistically significant in identifying patients requiring early ICU admission.