Exploring parental perspectives: Maternal RSV vaccination versus infant RSV monoclonal antibody.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus poses a significant global public health threat, particularly affecting infants aged less than one year of age. Recently, two forms of passive immunization against infant RSV have been developed and brought to market; nirsevimab a long-acting monoclonal antibody (mAb) and RSV-PreF, a maternal RSV vaccine. The acceptability and uptake of these products will play a pivotal role in determining the success of any national immunization strategy aimed at safeguarding infants from RSV. It is crucial at this time to reflect on the factors that influence parental decisions surrounding immunization to facilitate more informed discussions, enhance healthcare communication, and contribute to the design of effective RSV prevention strategies that resonate with the concerns and aspirations of parents worldwide.

Respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during pregnancy for improving infant outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in infants. Maternal RSV vaccination is a preventive strategy of great interest, as it could have a substantial impact on infant RSV disease burden. In recent years, the clinical development of maternal RSV vaccines has advanced rapidly. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination for preventing RSV disease in infants. SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register and two other trials registries on 21 October 2022. We updated the search on 27 July 2023, when we searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL, and two trials registries. Additionally, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and conference proceedings. There were no language restrictions on our searches. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing maternal RSV vaccination with placebo or no intervention in pregnant women of any age. The primary outcomes were hospitalisation with clinically confirmed or laboratory-confirmed RSV disease in infants. The secondary outcomes covered adverse pregnancy outcomes (intrauterine growth restriction, stillbirth, and maternal death) and adverse infant outcomes (preterm birth, congenital abnormalities, and infant death). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods and assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. MAIN RESULTS: We included six RCTs (25 study reports) involving 17,991 pregnant women. The intervention was an RSV pre-F protein vaccine in four studies, and an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine in two studies. In all studies, the comparator was a placebo (saline, formulation buffer, or sterile water). We judged four studies at overall low risk of bias and two studies at overall high risk (mainly due to selection bias). All studies were funded by pharmaceutical companies. Maternal RSV vaccination compared with placebo reduces infant hospitalisation with laboratory-confirmed RSV disease (risk ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31 to 0.82; 4 RCTs, 12,216 infants; high-certainty evidence). Based on an absolute risk with placebo of 22 hospitalisations per 1000 infants, our results represent 11 fewer hospitalisations per 1000 infants from vaccinated pregnant women (15 fewer to 4 fewer). No studies reported infant hospitalisation with clinically confirmed RSV disease. Maternal RSV vaccination compared with placebo has little or no effect on the risk of congenital abnormalities (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.04; 140 per 1000 with placebo, 5 fewer per 1000 with RSV vaccination (17 fewer to 6 more); 4 RCTs, 12,304 infants; high-certainty evidence). Maternal RSV vaccination likely has little or no effect on the risk of intrauterine growth restriction (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.33; 3 per 1000 with placebo, 1 more per 1000 with RSV vaccination (1 fewer to 4 more); 4 RCTs, 12,545 pregnant women; moderate-certainty evidence). Maternal RSV vaccination may have little or no effect on the risk of stillbirth (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.72; 3 per 1000 with placebo, no difference with RSV vaccination (2 fewer to 3 more); 5 RCTs, 12,652 pregnant women). There may be a safety signal warranting further investigation related to preterm birth. This outcome may be more likely with maternal RSV vaccination, although the 95% CI includes no effect, and the evidence is very uncertain (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.36; 6 RCTs, 17,560 infants; very low-certainty evidence). Based on an absolute risk of 51 preterm births per 1000 infants from pregnant women who received placebo, there may be 8 more per 1000 infants from pregnant women with RSV vaccination (1 fewer to 18 more). There was one maternal death in the RSV vaccination group and none in the placebo group. Our meta-analysis suggests that RSV vaccination compared with placebo may have little or no effect on the risk of maternal death (RR 3.00, 95% CI 0.12 to 73.50; 3 RCTs, 7977 pregnant women; low-certainty evidence). The effect of maternal RSV vaccination on the risk of infant death is very uncertain (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.81; 6 RCTs, 17,589 infants; very low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this review suggest that maternal RSV vaccination reduces laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisations in infants. There are no safety concerns about intrauterine growth restriction and congenital abnormalities. We must be careful in drawing conclusions about other safety outcomes owing to the low and very low certainty of the evidence. The evidence available to date suggests RSV vaccination may have little or no effect on stillbirth, maternal death, and infant death (although the evidence for infant death is very uncertain). However, there may be a safety signal warranting further investigation related to preterm birth. This is driven by data from one trial, which is not fully published yet. The evidence base would be much improved by more RCTs with substantial sample sizes and well-designed observational studies with long-term follow-up for assessment of safety outcomes. Future studies should aim to use standard outcome measures, collect data on concomitant vaccines, and stratify data by timing of vaccination, gestational age at birth, race, and geographical setting.

Efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F vaccine: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: A notable research gap exists in the systematic review and meta-analysis concerning the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prefusion F vaccine. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search across PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov to retrieve articles related to the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of RSV prefusion F vaccines, published through September 8, 2023. We adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 22 randomized controlled trials involving 78,990 participants were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The RSV prefusion F vaccine exhibited a vaccine effectiveness of 68% (95% CI: 59-75%) against RSV-associated acute respiratory illness, 70% (95% CI: 60-77%) against medically attended RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness, and 87% (95% CI: 71-94%) against medically attended severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness. Common reported local adverse reactions following RSV prefusion F vaccination include pain, redness, and swelling at the injection site, and systemic reactions such as fatigue, headache, myalgia, arthralgia, nausea, and chills. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis suggests that vaccines using the RSV prefusion F protein as antigen exhibit appears broadly acceptable efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety in the population. In particular, it provides high protective efficiency against severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease.

Assessment of effectiveness and impact of universal prophylaxis with nirsevimab for prevention of hospitalizations due to respiratory syncytial virus in infants. The NIRSE-GAL study protocol.

Nirsevimab has been recently licensed for universal RSV prophylaxis in infants. NIRSE-GAL is a three-year population-based study initiated in Galicia in September 2023. It aims to evaluate nirsevimab effectiveness against RSV-related hospitalizations lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), severe RSV, all-cause LRTI, and all-cause hospitalization. NIRSE-GAL also aims to estimate nirsevimab impact on primary healthcare use in the short and mid-term, children's wheezing and asthma, and medical prescriptions for RSV. The immunization campaigns will be scheduled based on the expected start week for the RSV season and will last the whole season. Immunization will be offered to: i) infants born during the campaign (seasonal), ii) infants < 6 months at the start of the campaign (catch-up), and iii) infants with high-risk factors, aged 6-24 months at the start of the campaign (high-risk). The follow-up period will start: i) the immunization date for all immunized infants, ii) the start of the campaign, for the non-immunized catch-up or high-risk groups, or iii) the birthdate for the non-immunized seasonal group. Infants will be followed up until outcome occurrence, death, or end of study. Nirsevimab effectiveness will be estimated using Poisson and Cox regression models. Sensitivity and stratified analyses will be undertaken. The number of averted cases and the number needed to immunize will be estimated. Immunization failure and nirsevimab safety will be monitored. NIRSE-GAL was approved by the ethics committee of Galicia (CEIC 2023-377) and registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT06180993). Findings will be mainly shared via peer-reviewed publications and scientific conferences.

The Role of Human Mobility Flow in the Region-to-Region Spread of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection among Infants: An Infographic Analysis.

The region-to-region spread of human infectious diseases is considered to be dependent on the human mobility flow (HMF). However, it has been hard to obtain the evidence for this. Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan 2020, the government has enforced countermeasures against COVID-19 nationwide, namely the restriction of personal travelling, universal masking, and hand hygiene. As a result, the spread of acute respiratory infections had been effectively controlled. However, COVID-19 as well as pediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections were not well-controlled. The region-to-region spread of pediatric RSV infections in 2020-2021 was recognizable unlike those in 2018 and 2019. In this study, we investigated the correlation between the trend of regional reports of the pediatric RSV infections and the HMF based on cellular phone signal data. Upon closer examination of both epidemiological trend and HMF data, the spread of pediatric RSV infection from one region to another was logically explained by HMF, which would serve as the evidence of the dependence of regional transmission on HMF. This is the first solid evidence where this correlation has been clearly observed for the common respiratory infections. While social implementation of infection control measures has successfully suppressed the droplet-mediated respiratory infections, such as influenza, but not the airborne infections, it was suggested that the aerosol transmission and adult asymptomatic carrier were involved in the transmission of RSV akin to COVID-19.

Impact of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Hospitalized Children.

BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at SARS-CoV-2 have remarkably affected the circulation of other respiratory pathogens, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This study aimed to assess the changes in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV infections in hospitalized children before and during the pandemic in Suzhou, China. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled children aged < 18 years who were hospitalized in Soochow University Affiliated Children's Hospital with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRIs) from January 2018 to July 2022. Changes in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV infections were analyzed. RESULTS: Compared with the same period in 2018-2019, the difference in the overall positive rate of RSV was not statistically significant in 2020, while it increased significantly in 2021 (11.8% [662/5621] vs. 20.8% [356/1711], p < 0.001) and 2022 (9.0% [308/3406] vs. 18.9% [129/684], p < 0.001). Specifically, the positive rates declined considerably from October to December 2020 but sharply increased during the summer of 2021. Compared to prepandemic period, RSV infections were more frequently observed in older children during the pandemic. RSV-positive children exhibited milder clinical characteristics during the COVID-19 pandemic, including decreased proportion of patients with hospital stay ≥ 11 days (10.3% vs. 6.7%, p < 0.05), less requirement for oxygen therapy (13.7% vs. 6.9%, p < 0.001), and fewer cases of polypnea (12.2% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.05) and wheeze (50.1% vs. 42.9%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of multilayered NPIs targeted at COVID-19 has affected the activity of RSV. Ongoing monitoring of RSV is warranted as the changing RSV epidemiology can provide valuable insights for future healthcare system planning.

Cost-utility analysis of palivizumab for preventing respiratory syncytial virus in preterm neonates and infants in Colombia.

AIM: Palivizumab has proven effective in reducing hospitalizations, preventing severe illness, improving health outcomes, and reducing healthcare costs for infants at risk of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. We aim to assess the value of palivizumab in preventing RSV infection in high-risk infants in Colombia, where RSV poses a significant threat, causing severe respiratory illness and hospitalizations. METHODS: We conducted a decision tree analysis to compare five doses of palivizumab with no palivizumab. The study considered three population groups: preterm neonates (≤ 35 weeks gestational age), infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), and infants with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease (CHD). We obtained clinical efficacy data from IMpact-RSV and Cardiac Synagis trials, while we derived neonatal hospitalization risks from the SENTINEL-1 study. We based hospitalization and recurrent wheezing management costs on Colombian analyses and validated them by experts. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and performed 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Palivizumab is a dominant strategy for preventing RSV infection in preterm neonates and infants with BPD and CHD. Its high efficacy (78% in preventing RSV in preterm infants), the substantial risk of illness and hospitalization, and the high costs associated with hospitalization, particularly in neonatal intensive care settings, support this finding. The scatter plots and willingness-to-pay curves align with these results. CONCLUSION: Palivizumab is a cost-saving strategy in Colombia, effectively preventing RSV infection in preterm neonates and infants with BPD and CHD by reducing hospitalizations and lowering healthcare costs.

Mucosal immunization with a low-energy electron inactivated respiratory syncytial virus vaccine protects mice without Th2 immune bias.

The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections associated with numerous hospitalizations. Recently, intramuscular (i.m.) vaccines against RSV have been approved for elderly and pregnant women. Noninvasive mucosal vaccination, e.g., by inhalation, offers an alternative against respiratory pathogens like RSV. Effective mucosal vaccines induce local immune responses, potentially resulting in the efficient and fast elimination of respiratory viruses after natural infection. To investigate this immune response to an RSV challenge, low-energy electron inactivated RSV (LEEI-RSV) was formulated with phosphatidylcholine-liposomes (PC-LEEI-RSV) or 1,2-dioleoyl-3-trimethylammonium-propane and 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphoethanolamine (DD-LEEI-RSV) for vaccination of mice intranasally. As controls, LEEI-RSV and formalin-inactivated-RSV (FI-RSV) were used via i.m. vaccination. The RSV-specific immunogenicity of the different vaccines and their protective efficacy were analyzed. RSV-specific IgA antibodies and a statistically significant reduction in viral load upon challenge were detected in mucosal DD-LEEI-RSV-vaccinated animals. Alhydrogel-adjuvanted LEEI-RSV i.m. showed a Th2-bias with enhanced IgE, eosinophils, and lung histopathology comparable to FI-RSV. These effects were absent when applying the mucosal vaccines highlighting the potential of DD-LEEI-RSV as an RSV vaccine candidate and the improved performance of this mucosal vaccine candidate.

Balanced on the Biggest Wave: Nirsevimab for Newborns.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalization in infancy in the United States. Nearly all infants are infected by 2 years of age, with bronchiolitis requiring hospitalization often occurring in previously healthy children and long-term consequences of severe disease including delayed speech development and asthma. Incomplete passage of maternal immunity and a high degree of genetic variability within the virus contribute to morbidity and have also prevented successful neonatal vaccine development. Monoclonal antibodies reduce the risk of hospitalization from severe RSV disease, with palivizumab protecting high-risk newborns with comorbidities including chronic lung disease and congenital heart disease. Unfortunately, palivizumab is costly and requires monthly administration of up to five doses during the RSV season for optimal protection.Rapid advances in the past two decades have facilitated the identification of antibodies with broad neutralizing activity and allowed manipulation of their genetic code to extend half-life. These advances have culminated with nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the Ø antigenic site on the RSV prefusion protein and protecting infants from severe disease for an entire 5-month season with a single dose. Four landmark randomized controlled trials, the first published in July 2020, have documented the efficacy and safety of nirsevimab in healthy late-preterm and term infants, healthy preterm infants, and high-risk preterm infants and those with congenital heart disease. Nirsevimab reduces the risk of RSV disease requiring medical attention (number needed to treat [NNT] 14-24) and hospitalization (NNT 33-63) with rare mild rash and injection site reactions. Consequently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recently recommended nirsevimab for all infants younger than 8 months of age entering or born during the RSV season and high-risk infants 8-19 months of age entering their second season. Implementing this novel therapy in this large population will require close multidisciplinary collaboration. Equitable distribution through minimizing barriers and maximizing uptake must be prioritized.

Equivalent immunogenicity across three RSVpreF vaccine lots in healthy adults 18-49 years of age: Results of a randomized phase 3 study.

BACKGROUND: Bivalent RSV prefusion F subunit vaccine (RSVpreF), comprised of equal quantities of stabilized prefusion F antigens from the major circulating subgroups (RSV A, RSV B), is licensed for prevention of RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness (LRTI) in older adults and for maternal vaccination for prevention of RSV-associated LRTI in infants. To support licensure and large-scale manufacturing, this lot consistency study was conducted to demonstrate equivalence in immunogenicity across 3 RSVpreF lots. METHODS: This phase 3, multicenter, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, randomized (1:1:1:1), double-blind study evaluated immunogenicity, safety, and tolerability of RSVpreF in healthy 18-49-year-old adults. Participants received a single 120-µg injection of 1 of 3RSVpreF lots or placebo. Geometric mean ratio (GMR) of RSV serum 50 % neutralizing geometric mean titers obtained 1 month after vaccination were compared between each vaccine lot for RSV A and RSV B, separately. Equivalence between lots was defined using a 1.5-fold criterion (GMR 95 % CIs for every lot pair within the 0.667-1.5 interval). Safety and tolerability were assessed. RESULTS: Of 992participants vaccinated, 948 were included in the evaluable immunogenicity population. All 3 RSVpreF lots elicited strong immune responses, meeting the 1.5-fold equivalence criterion for all between-lot comparisons for both RSV A and RSV B. Across the 3 lots, RSV A and RSV B 50 % neutralizing geometric mean titers substantially increased from baseline (RSV A, 1671-1795; RSV B 1358-1429) to 1 month after RSVpreF vaccination (RSV A, 24,131-25,238; RSV B, 19,238-21,702), corresponding to ≥14-fold increases in 50 % neutralizing titers for both RSV A and RSV B from before to 1 month after vaccination. Single doses of RSVpreF were safe and well tolerated, with similar safety profiles across the 3 RSVpreF lots. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the reproducibility of RSVpreF vaccine manufacturing with similar safety and reactogenicity profiles (NCT05096208).

RSV Vaccination Intention Among People Who Are or Plan to Become Pregnant.

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common pediatric infection, with young infants being at the highest risk of hospitalization and long-term sequela. New preventive agents have been recommended to prevent severe RSV illness in infants, including a vaccine administered during pregnancy. The current rates of recommended vaccination in pregnancy are suboptimal. Our objective was to characterize interest in RSV vaccination during pregnancy among people across the United States who were pregnant or planning to become pregnant. METHODS: In March 2023, we conducted a national cross-sectional online survey of individuals 18 to 45 years old who were currently pregnant or trying to become pregnant on their perceptions of RSV-related illness and intentions to get vaccinated against RSV. We performed logistic regression analyses to determine the odds and predicted proportions of the likelihood of RSV vaccination during pregnancy, controlling for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Of 1619 completed surveys, 1528 were analyzed. 54% of respondents indicated that they were "very likely" to get vaccinated against RSV during pregnancy. The perception of RSV as a serious illness was the strongest predictor of vaccination likelihood. In the full regression model, predicted proportions of "very likely" to vaccinate against RSV followed a similar pattern (63% if RSV infection was perceived as serious and likely, 55% if serious and unlikely, 35% if not serious; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Raising awareness of RSV infection as likely and potentially serious for infants may be an influential component of targeted communications that promote RSV vaccine uptake during pregnancy.

Maternal awareness, acceptability and willingness towards respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination during pregnancy in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the world's leading cause of viral acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in infants. WHO has identified maternal RSV vaccination a priority and candidate vaccines are in development; however, vaccine hesitancy remains an impediment to successful implementation of maternal immunization. This study, the largest antenatal survey conducted to-date, aimed to examine maternal RSV awareness, likely acceptance of RSV vaccination in pregnancy, and attitudes to maternal vaccination. METHODS: Pregnant women of all gestations attending antenatal clinic of a university maternity hospital in Ireland were invited to participate. An information leaflet provided, consent obtained, and survey administered examining RSV awareness, willingness to avail of antenatal RSV vaccination, factors influencing acceptability and preferred sources of assistance. Research Ethics Committee (REC) approval obtained, and general data protection regulation (GDPR) guidelines followed. RESULTS: 528 women completed the survey. A large proportion (75.6%) had never heard of RSV, yet 48.5% would still avail of a vaccine, 45.8% were undecided and only 5.3% would not. The main factor making vaccination acceptable to women (76.4%) was that it protects their infant from illness (p < .001, CV 0.336 for association with acceptance) and general practitioner (GP) was the preferred guidance source in decision-making (57.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite low levels of maternal awareness of RSV, pregnant women in Ireland are open to availing of antenatal vaccination. Maternal immunization strategies need to focus on infant's protection from RSV-associated ALRI along with vaccine safety, and build on an interdisciplinary collaboration of maternal, neonatal, primary care and public health services.

[Strategies and recommendations to face respiratory syncytial virus disease in 2024]. / Estrategias y recomendaciones para enfrentar la enfermedad por virus respiratorio sincicial el año 2024.

During the winter of 2023, Chile faced a complex situation related to the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). After experiencing a decline in RSV circulation during the years of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, a late outbreak was observed in the spring of 2022 and an early onset of the outbreak in 2023, with a significant increase in the number of serious cases. The ineffectiveness of strategic planning and risk communication contributed to the complexity of the situation. To avoid the above next winter, measures such as active surveillance, unification of definitions for acute respiratory infections, identification of RSV variants, public education about infections and advance preparation regarding hospital beds and health personnel are suggested. The importance of immunization and intersectoral collaboration to acquire new preventive alternatives is highlighted, as well as the need for early communication about the importance of immunization and identification of high-risk groups, improvement in training of medical personnel and strategic planning of the Ministry of Health. seeking a proactive and collaborative approach to address the complex RSV situation in future winters. The Chilean Immunization Advisory Committee has already carried out an analysis and recommendation on a new prevention alternative. This working group will support any decision of the Ministry of Health in public policies that attempt a change in the paradigm of control of this disease for the health of the children of our country.

Monoclonal antibodies targeting sites in respiratory syncytial virus attachment G protein provide protection against RSV-A and RSV-B in mice.

Currently, only Palivizumab and Nirsevimab that target the respiratory syncytical virus (RSV) fusion protein are licensed for pre-treatment of infants. Glycoprotein-targeting antibodies may also provide protection against RSV. In this study, we generate monoclonal antibodies from mice immunized with G proteins from RSV-A2 and RSV-B1 strains. These monoclonal antibodies recognize six unique antigenic classes (G0-G5). None of the anti-G monoclonal antibodies neutralize RSV-A2 or RSV-B1 in vitro. In mice challenged with either RSV-A2 line 19 F or RSV-B1, one day after treatment with anti-G monoclonal antibodies, all monoclonal antibodies reduce lung pathology and significantly reduce lung infectious viral titers by more than 2 logs on day 5 post-RSV challenge. RSV dissemination in the lungs was variable and correlated with lung pathology. We demonstrate new cross-protective anti-G monoclonal antibodies targeting multiple sites including conformation-dependent class G0 MAb 77D2, CCD-specific class G1 MAb 40D8, and carboxy terminus of CCD class G5 MAb 7H11, to support development of G-targeting monoclonal antibodies against RSV.

Long-term effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on total disease burden in parsimonious epidemiological models.

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation. Therefore, the net long-term effects of NPIs on the total disease burden of non-target diseases remain unclear. Knowledge of this is important for infectious disease management and maintenance of public health. In this study, we shed light on this issue for the simplified scenario of a set of NPIs that prevent or reduce transmission of a seasonal respiratory disease for about a year and are then removed, using mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of a suite of four epidemiological models with varying complexity and generality. The model parameters were estimated using empirical data pertaining to seasonal respiratory diseases and covered a wide range. Our results showed that NPIs reduced the total disease burden of a non-target seasonal respiratory disease in the long-term. Expressed as a percentage of population size, the reduction was greater for larger values of the basic reproduction number and the immunity loss rate, reflecting larger outbreaks and hence more infections averted by imposition of NPIs. Our study provides a foundation for exploring the effects of NPIs on total disease burden in more-complex scenarios.