Socio-economic aspects and farming practices of goats in Southern Tunisia.

This study aims to describe socio-economic aspects, farming practices and production limitations of goats by surveying 53 farms holding 5507 head in the regions of Tataouine-Tunisia. It was revealed that goats represented a major source of income for most of the producers (66.1%). Approximately 35.8% of the farmers had not received formal education, with the majority (56.6%) having been engaged in goat breeding for over 10 years. Additionally, 50.9% of stockholders relied on technical knowledge for animal breeding. The investigated herds were mostly (97.4%) comprised of local goat breeds. The most common management system was semi-intensive (49.1%) based on grazing in communal rangelands and supplementation with agricultural by-products and concentrates. The fertility, fecundity and prolificacy rates were 91.3 ± 8.3, 109.8 ± 19.5 and 127.0 ± 15.4%, respectively. The main reasons for keeping goats were their major contribution to the income by the sale of male kids and the provision of milk for home consumption. Sale of male kids at an age of 7.7 months was practiced mostly via intermediaries (94.3%) and rarely directly to butchers and markets (5.7%). The total amount of milk produced on each farm was on average 15.1 l/day, and more than half of farmers (54.7%) consumed goat milk as part of their daily diet. The majority (71.7%) of respondents locally processed milk into Leben, Rayeb and cheese because the goat milk market faced constraints in the Tataouine regions, mainly in terms insufficient milk production and low consumer acceptability. Goats contribute to the income source in rural zones of southern Tunisia, where their breeding is mainly for the purpose of meat sale and the provision of milk for home consumption. The development of goat milk market can represent an added value to this sector.

Do promotions of healthier or more sustainable foods increase sales? Findings from three natural experiments in UK supermarkets.

BACKGROUND: Dietary changes are necessary to improve population health and meet environmental sustainability targets. Here we analyse the impact of promotional activities implemented in UK supermarkets on purchases of healthier and more sustainable foods. METHODS: Three natural experiments examined the impact of promotional activities on sales of a) no-added-sugar (NAS) plant-based milk (in 199 stores), b) products promoted during 'Veganuary' (in 96 stores), and c) seasonal fruit (in 100 non-randomised intervention and 100 matched control stores). Data were provided on store-level product sales, in units sold and monetary value (£), aggregated weekly. Predominant socioeconomic position (SEP) of the store population was provided by the retailer. Analyses used interrupted time series and multivariable hierarchical mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Sales of both promoted and total NAS plant-based milks increased significantly during the promotional period (Promoted:+126 units, 95%CI: 105-148; Overall:+307 units, 95%CI: 264-349). The increase was greater in stores with predominately low SEP shoppers. During Veganuary, sales increased significantly for plant-based foods on promotion (+60 units, 95%CI: 37-84), but not for sales of plant-based foods overall (dairy alternatives: -1131 units, 95%CI: -5821-3559; meat alternatives: 1403 units, 95%CI: -749-3554). There was no evidence of a change in weekly sales of promoted seasonal fruit products (assessed via ratio change in units sold: 0.01, 95%CI: 0.00-0.02), and overall fruit category sales slightly decreased in intervention stores relative to control (ratio change in units sold: -0.01, 95%CI: -0.01-0.00). CONCLUSION: During promotional campaigns there was evidence that sales of plant-based products increased, but not seasonal fruits. There was no evidence for any sustained change beyond the intervention period.

Global losses due to dairy cattle diseases: A comorbidity-adjusted economic analysis.

An economic simulation was carried out over 183 milk-producing countries to estimate the global economic impacts of 12 dairy cattle diseases and health conditions: mastitis (subclinical and clinical), lameness, paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), displaced abomasum, dystocia, metritis, milk fever, ovarian cysts, retained placenta, and ketosis (subclinical and clinical). Estimates of disease impacts on milk yield, fertility, and culling were collected from the literature, standardized, meta-analyzed using a variety of methods ranging from simple averaging to random-effects models, and adjusted for comorbidities to prevent overestimation. These comorbidity-adjusted disease impacts were then combined with a set of country-level estimates for lactational incidence or prevalence or both, herd characteristics, and price estimates within a series of Monte Carlo simulations that estimated and valued the economic losses due to these diseases. It was estimated that total annual global losses are US$65 billion (B). Subclinical ketosis, clinical mastitis, and subclinical mastitis were the costliest diseases modeled, resulting in mean annual global losses of approximately US$18B, US$13B, and US$9B, respectively. Estimated global annual losses due to clinical ketosis, displaced abomasum, dystocia, lameness, metritis, milk fever, ovarian cysts, paratuberculosis, and retained placenta were estimated to be US$0.2B, US$0.6B, US$0.6B, US$6B, US$5B, US$0.6B, US$4B, US$4B, and US$3B, respectively. Without adjustment for comorbidities, when statistical associations between diseases were disregarded, mean aggregate global losses would have been overestimated by 45%. Although annual losses were greatest in India (US$12B), the United States (US$8B), and China (US$5B), depending on the measure of losses used (losses as a percentage of gross domestic product, losses per capita, losses as a percentage of gross milk revenue), the relative economic burden of these dairy cattle diseases across countries varied markedly.

Economic analysis of high-oleic soybeans in dairy rations.

We evaluate the potential economic impact of using high-oleic soybeans (HOS) in dairy rations based on a synthesis of results from 5 prior feeding trials. Milk income less feed costs (MILFC) per cow per day is calculated based on assumed increases in milkfat production and increased cost of rations including HOS. The effects of changes in MILFC are evaluated for herds with different numbers of milking cows, and the total volume of HOS required to support different proportions of US dairy cows is calculated. A dynamic supply-chain model assesses the potential market impacts of increases in butterfat supply. The increase in milkfat from the substitution of 5% of ration dry matter with whole HOS (1.4 kg/cow per day) has the potential to increase MILFC by up to $0.27/cow per day or increase the average value of milk by $0.29/45.4 kg for a cow producing 41 kg/d. Changes in MILFC are highly correlated with the price of butter but were positive for butter prices observed from January 2014 to September 2020. The effects of HOS on MILFC suggest the potential for increases in farm profitability of $33,000/yr for a dairy feeding 500 milking cows. Scaled-up use of HOS by US dairy farmers would increase butterfat supplies and lower the butterfat price to a small extent, but these aggregated effects do not offset the positive effects of MILFC at the farm level.

An analysis of governance factors influencing performance of selected smallholder dairy cooperatives in Zimbabwe.

Cooperatives are organisations owned and operated by individuals or groups that come together for mutual benefit including pooling of resources for the purchase of inputs and marketing of products. Marketing of milk is through dairy cooperatives where the milk collection centres are mandated to help integrating smallholder farmers into competitive markets. The study investigated governance structures of five smallholder dairy schemes purposively selected based on their agroecological regions in Zimbabwe. The aim of the study was to explore how the governing boards conduct their business, particularly marketing milk, and how this affects allocation of resources (milk production and deliveries to milk centres) by smallholder farmers. Qualitative data were collected using focus group discussions with 20 dairy cooperative members from each milk collection centre. Key informant interviews were conducted with chairpersons, management committee members, and dairy value chain stakeholders such as dairy associations and processors. The SWOT analysis technique was employed to identify governance structures highlighting major strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats as a gateway to isolating strategies for enhancing centre performance. An analysis of implications of the governance structures on resource allocation decision by farmers was also performed. So focus is on how boards are discharging mandate such as marketing on behalf of farmers, price setting and negotiations, trainings, and accountability to members. Such factors if executed well will see farmers increasing milk production and deliveries to MCC yielding positive results in income and profits. The study results show that poor governance mainly caused by incompetent boards and management committees was the major factor affecting performance. Other findings were that if good governance factors were in place, then cooperatives became proficient leading to their growth. Thus, cooperatives must adopt business models based on private sector partnerships to maximise on expertise and technical support. The schemes ought to take advantage of existing opportunities, especially policies that mitigate threats and improve product diversity, value addition, and effective pricing strategies. To achieve these milestones, capacity building roadmaps ought to identify competent and efficient boards.

Economic analysis of smallholder dairy cattle enterprises in Senegal.

Smallholder dairy production in Senegal is important to both livelihoods and food and nutrition security. Here, we examine the economic performance of smallholder dairy cattle enterprises in Senegal, using data from longitudinal monitoring of 113 households. The mean (and standard deviation) of the net returns (NR) per cow per annum (pcpa) was 21.7 (202.9) USD, whilst the NR per household herd per annum (phpa) was 106.1 (1740.3) USD. Only about half (52.2%) of the dairy cattle enterprise had a positive NR. The most significant income components were milk sale followed by animal sale, whilst the most significant cost components were animal feed followed by animal purchase. When households were grouped by ranking on NRpcpa, an interesting trend was observed: whilst the mean NRpcpa showed a fairly linear increase from the lowest to highest NR groups, income and cost did not. Income and costs were both higher for the lowest and highest NR groups, in comparison to the intermediate NR groups. The mean NRs of households grouped by the main breed type they kept were not significantly different from each other, due to large variances within the breed groups. However, the mean total income and costs were significantly higher for households mainly keeping improved dairy breeds (Bos taurus or Zebu × Bos taurus crosses) in comparison to those keeping indigenous Zebu or Zebu by Guzerat crosses. This study highlights the highly variable (and often low) profitability of smallholder dairy cattle enterprise in Senegal. Further actions to address this are strongly recommended.

Fasting, food and farming: Value chains and food taboos in Ethiopia.

The impact of food taboos-often because of religion-is understudied. In Ethiopia, religious fasting by Orthodox Christians is assumed to be an important impediment for the sustainable development of a competitive dairy sector and desired higher milk consumption, especially by children. However, evidence is limited. Relying on unique data, we shed light on three major issues. First, we observe that the average annual number of fasting days that Orthodox adults are effectively adhering to is 140, less than commonly cited averages. Using this as an estimate for extrapolation, fasting is estimated to reduce annual dairy consumption by approximately 12 percent nationally. Second, farms adapt to declining milk demand during fasting by increased processing of milk into storable products-fasting contributes to larger price swings for these products. We further note continued sales of milk by non-remote farmers and reduced production-by adjusting lactation times for dairy animals-for remote farmers. Third, fasting is mostly associated with increased milk consumption by the children of dairy farmers, seemingly because of excess milk availability during fasting periods. Our results suggest that fasting habits are not a major explanation for the observed poor performance of Ethiopia's dairy sector nor low milk consumption by children. To reduce the impact of fasting on the dairy sector in Ethiopia further, investment is called for in improved milk processing, storage, and infrastructure facilities.

Dairy production in an urbanizing environment-Typology and linkages in the megacity of Bengaluru, India.

Urbanization is a main driver of agricultural transition in the Global South but how it shapes trends of intensification or extensification is not yet well understood. The Indian megacity of Bengaluru combines rapid urbanization with a high demand for dairy products, which is partly supplied by urban and peri-urban dairy producers. To study the impacts of urbanization on dairy production and to identify key features of dairy production systems across Bengaluru's rural-urban interface, 337 dairy producers were surveyed on the socio-economic profile of their household, their dairy herd and management, resources availability and, in- and output markets. A two-step cluster analysis identified four spatially explicit dairy production systems based on urbanization level of their neighborhood, reliance on self-cultivated forages, pasture use, cattle in- and outflow and share of specialized dairy genotypes. The most extensive dairy production system, common to the whole rural-urban interface, utilized publicly available feed resources and pasture grounds rather than to cultivate forages. In rural areas, two semi-intensive and one intensive dairy production systems relying on self-cultivation of forage with or without pasture further distinguished themselves by their herd and breeding management. In rural areas, the village's dairy cooperative, which also provided access to inputs such as exotic genotype through artificial insemination, concentrate feeds and health care, was often the only marketing channel available to dairy producers, irrespective of the dairy production system to which they belonged. In urban areas, milk was mostly sold through direct marketing or a middleman. Despite rapidly progressing urbanization and a population of 10 million, Bengaluru's dairy sector still relies on small-scale family dairy farms. Shifts in resources availability, such as land and labor, are potential drivers of market-oriented intensification but also extensification of dairy production in an urbanizing environment.

Application of the Farm Simulation Model approach on economic loss estimation due to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Bangladesh dairy farms-strategies, options, and way forward.

The objective of this paper is to quantify the economic loss of the dairy farms due to the pandemic novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection by analyzing the real-time data of two typical farms (BD-2 and BD-14 cow) in Bangladesh and propose a strategic plan of action to make policy decisions in order to support the dairy industry. The International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) Farm Simulation Approach and Technology Impact Policy Impact Calculations (TIPICAL) model was used considering with Corona (WC) and without Corona (WOC). The Integrated Dairy Research Network (IDRN) database (January 2019 to July 2020) was used for simulation of IFCN two typical farms. The milk price is decreased by 17% and feed price is increased by 3.7% due to COVID-19 in March which was used as the base for farm simulation. This resulted in a decrease in milk yield by 7.9% and 8.9% for small household and family farms, respectively. The cost of milk production increased by 19.10% and 10.9% for household and family farms, respectively. This has an overall negative impact on farm income which accounted for national economic loss from dairy farms in Bangladesh to 4.43 million USD/day (36.84 crore BDT). This loss has been fluctuated from April onward and was higher in June (3.83 million USD/day) due to a combination of COVID-19, flood, and seasonality effect on lowering milk production. At the same time, the farmers' response to the resilience capacity (liquidity, operating profit margin, and financial performance) to combat COVID-19-induced situation has been declined substantially. Based on this, we conclude that the government might take a strategy to support farmers by providing financial support for increasing the operating capital and decreasing the cost of milk production. The outcome of this study is expected to be beneficial for policymakers, farmers, and processors in Bangladesh and similar other countries elsewhere.

The dairy sector in the Azores Islands: possibilities and main constraints towards increased added value.

The Azores archipelago is the most suitable region for dairy production in Portugal, representing 30% of the overall Portuguese dairy production. It has a production system characterized by an average milk yield of 6216 kg/cow/year, and the predominance of pasture-based feeding and cows that have longer productive lives and lower incidence of metabolic/production diseases, such as acidosis or mastitis. The biggest problem with the Azores Islands dairy sector is the cost of transport, as the main markets are located in continental Portugal, over 1500 km away, and local dairy products have to compete with dairy products produced in mainland Portugal and in the rest of the European Union. Herein, the evolution of the dairy sector in the Azores Islands from 2007 to 2017 is presented. A SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat) analysis was performed to find potential solutions to increase the value of the Azorean dairy sector. The most relevant solution considered was the valorization of the dairy production through three major aspects: higher milk quality, namely, better organoleptic properties; lower carbon footprint (not considering transport costs); and higher levels of animal welfare. Three examples are shown of such valorization: protected denomination of origin (PDO) cheeses, the "happy cows" program, and the production of an organic milk, from the Terceira Island. Some of these programs are relatively recent, so, it will be interesting to see how their sales and acceptance by consumers evolve, particularly under the current economic framework.

A framework for the socio-economic evaluation of rearing systems of dairy calves with or without cow contact.

Interest in dairy calf rearing systems with cow-calf contact during the milk feeding period is increasing among farmers, advisors and researchers, but socio-economic consequences have only scarcely been investigated yet. In this research reflection we develop a suggestion for a socio-economic methodical framework that is suitable for the wide variation of cow calf rearing systems, farm, market and societal conditions. Based on a literature based, system-theoretical structuring of involved elements, and on full cost accounting in an exemplary case study concerning two model farms, we itemize monetary factors, and additionally important non-monetary factors, that should be included in a socio-economic evaluation. This process also revealed further research needs. We propose as a next research step to gather a greater number of real farm data including different rearing systems and to perform individual full cost accountings, in order to identify input and output patterns on this basis. This might not only help to provide a robust basis for economic decision making, but also help to fill research gaps concerning long-term effects of calf rearing with cow contact. In addition, ways should be explored on how to take non-monetary effects into account.

Refining consumer attitudes to milk and dairy product purchase and use to reduce food waste and improve animal welfare on-farm.

This Research Reflection raises awareness of the need to broaden perspectives and levels of multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches when considering on-farm dairy cattle welfare. It starts with a brief overview of current animal welfare issues on dairy farms and how they are perceived by different stakeholders. Some divergences in points of view are discussed in more detail and the first steps in networking are mentioned. Particular emphasis is given to both milk and dairy product waste in industrialized countries and the potential effects of its reduction on changes in the production system. The needs for a quantification of such quota and retailer involvement are also analyzed from the perspective that on-farm animal welfare is directly linked to the amount of milk that might be removed from the food chain by adoption of welfare-friendly management, such as cow-calf systems.

Beverage milk consumption patterns in the United States: Who is substituting from dairy to plant-based beverages?

This research used a survey of 995 US households to explore how dairy milk and plant-based beverage substitutes were consumed. Long-term trends of declining beverage milk consumption have been exacerbated in recent years by increasing consumption of plant-based beverages. Although beverage milk consumption has been declining, total dairy consumption in the United States continues to increase, driven by growth in sales of cheese, butter, and yogurt. Using k-means cluster analysis, 3 consumption clusters for US households were identified. The largest cluster, consisting of 61.6% of households, consumed dairy milk with some regularity and consumed little or no plant-based beverages. A second cluster, flexitarian households, consisting of 15.6% of respondent households, frequently consumed both dairy milk and plant-based beverages. The third cluster, plant-based consumers, consisting of 22.8% of households, consumed almost exclusively plant-based beverages. Examining differences in demographics between clusters, flexitarian households were larger, more likely to include young children, more likely to include a vegetarian or vegan, and more liberal than traditional dairy-consuming households. Plant-based households had many similarities to flexitarian households. The flexitarian and plant-based clusters were willing to substitute plant-based beverages for dairy milk for almost all consumption uses.

MILK Symposium Introduction: Dairy production in developing countries.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), dairy production is highly valued, and demand for milk is projected to continue to increase markedly over the next few decades. This presents a tremendous opportunity to improve the nutrition, health, incomes, and livelihoods of millions of people with the high-quality protein and bioavailable micronutrients in dairy products. However, low dairy consumption levels, due to low affordability, accessibility, and availability, still typify several LMICs. This is caused by inadequate feeding, management, and genetics; poor transport, cooling, and processing infrastructure; unconducive policy environments; and sociocultural and demographic factors. Strategies to address some of these factors were presented at the MILK Symposium hosted by the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems during the 2019 American Dairy Science Association Annual Meeting. The papers presented are full manuscripts in this Special Issue of the Journal of Dairy Science. They address the importance of dairy products for human health, strategies to address feed, management, health, and food safety challenges in dairy production systems, and sustainability of dairy production in LMICs. They collectively show how strategic interventions can lead to marked improvements in dairy production in developing countries. These will ultimately contribute to meeting the growing global demand for milk and to achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

The transforming dairy sector in Ethiopia.

In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the dairy sector. However, good data for understanding patterns and inclusiveness of this transformation are often lacking. This is important given implications for policy design and service and technology provision towards better performing dairy sectors in these settings. Relying on a combination of unique diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city's residents. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines-depending on the data source used-are observed.

Reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance genes in retail raw milk.

BACKGROUND: It has been estimated that at least 3% of the USA population consumes unpasteurized (raw) milk from animal sources, and the demand to legalize raw milk sales continues to increase. However, consumption of raw milk can cause foodborne illness and be a source of bacteria containing transferrable antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the microbiome and antibiotic resistome in both raw and processed milk, we systematically analyzed 2034 retail milk samples including unpasteurized milk and pasteurized milk via vat pasteurization, high-temperature-short-time pasteurization, and ultra-pasteurization from the United States using complementary culture-based, 16S rRNA gene, and metagenomic sequencing techniques. RESULTS: Raw milk samples had the highest prevalence of viable bacteria which were measured as all aerobic bacteria, coliform, and Escherichia coli counts, and their microbiota was distinct from other types of milk. 16S rRNA gene sequencing revealed that Pseudomonadaceae dominated raw milk with limited levels of lactic acid bacteria. Among all milk samples, the microbiota remained stable with constant bacterial populations when stored at 4 °C. In contrast, storage at room temperature dramatically enriched the bacterial populations present in raw milk samples and, in parallel, significantly increased the richness and abundance of ARGs. Metagenomic sequencing indicated raw milk possessed dramatically more ARGs than pasteurized milk, and a conjugation assay documented the active transfer of blaCMY-2, one ceftazidime resistance gene present in raw milk-borne E. coli, across bacterial species. The room temperature-enriched resistome differed in raw milk from distinct geographic locations, a difference likely associated with regionally distinct milk microbiota. CONCLUSION: Despite advertised "probiotic" effects, our results indicate that raw milk microbiota has minimal lactic acid bacteria. In addition, retail raw milk serves as a reservoir of ARGs, populations of which are readily amplified by spontaneous fermentation. There is an increased need to understand potential food safety risks from improper transportation and storage of raw milk with regard to ARGs. Video Abstract.

Consumer desires and perceptions of lactose-free milk.

Fluid milk consumption has declined in the United States, but lactose-free dairy milk (LFM) sales have steadily increased. It is important to understand how consumers perceive LFM and what consumers value when purchasing LFM. This study characterized consumer perceptions and preferences for LFM. Three 1.5-h focus groups (n = 25), an online survey (n = 331), trained panel descriptive analysis, and a consumer acceptance taste test (n = 160) were conducted with LFM consumers. Focus groups were evaluated by frequency of responses. From the focus group findings, we found that price was a primary choice driver of LFM. Habit and flavor familiarity with cow milk were a major driver of selection of LFM over plant-based alternatives for consumers. Higher sweetness and lower viscosity were the primary sensory differences between LFM and traditional milk, and were viewed negatively in general. The online survey included Kano questions, maximum difference scaling, and an adaptive choice-based conjoint. The data gathered from these techniques provided insight into the perceptions and purchase habits of consumers. Kano data demonstrated consumer attitudes toward the presence or absence of product attributes. The maximum difference scaling scaled the importance of product attributes to consumers. An adaptive choice-based conjoint provided insight into consumer purchase habits by simulating a purchase decision through an online interface. The attributes evaluated included price, packaging material, package size, lactose removal method, shelf life, sweetness, texture, nutrition claims, and label claims. Survey responses were analyzed by univariate and multivariate statistics. Survey results quantitatively confirmed many focus group observations. Price, texture, sweetness, shelf life, and package size were the most important attributes to LFM consumers. A low price, ultrapasteurized LFM in a half-gallon cardboard package was the ideal LFM. Descriptive analysis of 9 commercial LFM followed by consumer acceptance testing was conducted. External preference mapping was conducted with trained panel and consumer acceptance results. Consumer acceptance testing of commercial LFM revealed 3 consumer clusters with distinct preferences for LFM flavor and texture. High sweet taste was a driver of liking for the overall population, and eggy flavor and viscosity were drivers of disliking. Knowledge of consumer preferences for LFM will provide actionable insights for new product development within the dairy industry for this market segment.

Estimating the combined costs of clinical and subclinical ketosis in dairy cows.

Clinical ketosis (CK) and subclinical ketosis (SCK) are associated with lower milk production, lower reproductive performance, an increased culling of cows and an increased probability of other disorders. Quantifying the costs related to ketosis will enable veterinarians and farmers to make more informed decisions regarding the prevention and treatment of the disease. The overall aim of this study was to estimate the combined costs of CK and SCK using assumptions and input variables from a typical Dutch context. A herd level dynamic stochastic simulation model was developed, simulating 385 herds with 130 cows each. In the default scenario there was a CK probability of almost 1% and a SCK probability of 11%. The herds under the no risk scenario had no CK and SCK, while the herds under the high-risk scenario had a doubled probability of CK and SCK compared to the default scenario. The results from the simulation model were used to estimate the annual cash flows of the herds, including the costs related to milk production losses, treatment, displaced abomasum, mastitis, calf management, culling and feed, as well as the returns from sales of milk and calves. The difference between the annual net cash flows of farms in the no risk scenario and the default scenario provides the estimate of the herd level costs of ketosis. Average herd level costs of ketosis (CK and SCK combined) were €3,613 per year for a default farm and €7,371 per year for a high-risk farm. The costs for a single CK case were on average €709 (with 5 and 95 percentiles of €64 and €1,196, respectively), while the costs for a single SCK case were on average €150 (with 5 and 95 percentiles of €18 and €422, respectively) for the default farms. The differences in costs between cases occurred due to differences between cases (e.g., cow culled vs cow not culled, getting another disease vs not getting another disease).

The economic value of days open in Holstein cows in Japan based on simulated changes in conception rate.

Increasing herd-life length and culling parity with increasing conception rate (CR) is necessary to increase lifetime profit from dairy cow production. Economic values of days open (DO) were determined by calculating changes in fertility traits, herd-life length, and milk yield when the simulated CR were changed in increments of 1% from -5% to 5% from the basal levels, which were obtained for Hokkaido and regions other than Hokkaido separately. When CR increased, number of artificial inseminations, DO, and milking length decreased. Furthermore, culling parity, and annual milk yield increased. Herd-life length increased in Hokkaido and decreased in the other regions. The economic values of CR were 1,623.8 to 946.8 yen and of DO were 857.4 to 399.0 yen. Relative economic values of milk yield to days open per genetic standard deviation were higher in the other regions than in Hokkaido where the economic effect of selection for DO was expected to be equal to selection for 305-day milk yield and herd life. If the survival rate of multipara cows in the other regions increases, then the economic value of DO would similarly increase in Hokkaido.

Use of auctions to assess consumer value for fresh and end-of-code milk.

The objective of this study was to survey consumers' milk purchasing behavior and investigate the effect of sensory experiences and an educational message on the perceived value of fluid milk at the beginning and near the end of code. Eleven auction sessions were carried out (n = 100 consumers), which included an explanation of the experiment, a survey about demographics and milk purchasing and consumption, sensory evaluation, an educational message, and 3 rounds of nth price auctions. Consumers were blindly served 2 pairs of milk samples from white-pigmented high-density polyethylene [2% and skim milk within 2 to 3 d of production (fresh) and 2% and skim milk with 2 to 3 d until the end of code (near-end)], and asked to indicate their preference and the level of acceptability for each sample using a 7-point hedonic scale. All samples were simultaneously evaluated by a panel of 8 judges who were trained to evaluate milk quality attributes on a 15 cm unstructured line scale. Results from the consumer panel acceptability rating session, trained panel descriptive analysis, and consumer auction bids were analyzed using multivariate factor analysis of variance. Subjecting pre- and post-survey responses to k means cluster analysis revealed 4 bidding populations in each round. Most participants (82%) indicated that they check the code date on milk every time they shop; 77% said they reached for the code date that was farthest out every time. However, on blind tasting, consumers did not prefer fresh over near-end milk. These findings were in agreement with their acceptability scores for fresh 2% (5.0/7.0), near-end 2% (5.2/7.0), fresh skim (4.5/7.0), and near-end skim (4.6/7.0) milks. Trained panelists did not detect a difference in "lacks freshness" flavor in fresh skim (1.9 cm/15.0 cm) or near-end skim milk (1.3 cm). Surprisingly, trained panelists did detect higher "lacks freshness" flavor in 1 lot of fresh 2% (2.3 cm) compared with near-end 2% milk (0.3 cm). When consumers bid on half gallons of milk with visible code dates, fresh skim was valued $0.27 higher than near-end skim, and fresh 2% was valued $0.29 higher than near-end 2%. After blind sensory evaluation, the margin between the fresh and near-end bids decreased to almost zero (fresh skim was valued only $0.03 more than near-end skim; near-end 2% was valued $0.01 more than fresh 2%). After the educational message about the meaning of code dates, consumer bids for near-end ($0.63) and fresh milk ($0.81) decreased compared with the first round of bidding ($0.74 and $1.01, respectively). Additionally, the margin in bids for fresh milk remained numerically higher than those for near-end milk ($0.15 for 2% and $0.21 for skim). The educational message about code date did not have the intended result of increasing consumer value for milk. Although consumers go out of their way to buy the freshest milk, they cannot necessarily distinguish fresh milk from milk at the end of code; consumers appear to value a code date that was farther out more than superior taste, even after a sensory experience and educational message.