Intraspecific Niche Models for Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa) Suggest Potential Variability in Population-Level Response to Climate Change.

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently available, geographically widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Pinus ponderosa: A checkered past obscured four species.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Molecular genetic evidence can help delineate taxa in species complexes that lack diagnostic morphological characters. Pinus ponderosa (Pinaceae; subsection Ponderosae) is recognized as a problematic taxon: plastid phylogenies of exemplars were paraphyletic, and mitochondrial phylogeography suggested at least four subdivisions of P. ponderosa. These patterns have not been examined in the context of other Ponderosae species. We hypothesized that putative intraspecific subdivisions might each represent a separate taxon. METHODS: We genotyped six highly variable plastid simple sequence repeats in 1903 individuals from 88 populations of P. ponderosa and related Ponderosae (P. arizonica, P. engelmannii, and P. jeffreyi). We used multilocus haplotype networks and discriminant analysis of principal components to test clustering of individuals into genetically and geographically meaningful taxonomic units. KEY RESULTS: There are at least four distinct plastid clusters within P. ponderosa that roughly correspond to the geographic distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes. Some geographic regions have intermixed plastid lineages, and some mitochondrial and plastid boundaries do not coincide. Based on relative distances to other species of Ponderosae, these clusters diagnose four distinct taxa. CONCLUSIONS: Newly revealed geographic boundaries of four distinct taxa (P. benthamiana, P. brachyptera, P. scopulorum, and a narrowed concept of P. ponderosa) do not correspond completely with taxonomies. Further research is needed to understand their morphological and nuclear genetic makeup, but we suggest that resurrecting originally published species names would more appropriately reflect the taxonomy of this checkered classification than their current treatment as varieties of P. ponderosa.

Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

Mitochondrial DNA haplotype distribution patterns in Pinus ponderosa (Pinaceae): range-wide evolutionary history and implications for conservation.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) exhibits complicated patterns of morphological and genetic variation across its range in western North America. This study aims to clarify P. ponderosa evolutionary history and phylogeography using a highly polymorphic mitochondrial DNA marker, with results offering insights into how geographical and climatological processes drove the modern evolutionary structure of tree species in the region. METHODS: We amplified the mtDNA nad1 second intron minisatellite region for 3,100 trees representing 104 populations, and sequenced all length variants. We estimated population-level haplotypic diversity and determined diversity partitioning among varieties, races and populations. After aligning sequences of minisatellite repeat motifs, we evaluated evolutionary relationships among haplotypes. KEY RESULTS: The geographical structuring of the 10 haplotypes corresponded with division between Pacific and Rocky Mountain varieties. Pacific haplotypes clustered with high bootstrap support, and appear to have descended from Rocky Mountain haplotypes. A greater proportion of diversity was partitioned between Rocky Mountain races than between Pacific races. Areas of highest haplotypic diversity were the southern Sierra Nevada mountain range in California, northwestern California, and southern Nevada. CONCLUSIONS: Pinus ponderosa haplotype distribution patterns suggest a complex phylogeographic history not revealed by other genetic and morphological data, or by the sparse paleoecological record. The results appear consistent with long-term divergence between the Pacific and Rocky Mountain varieties, along with more recent divergences not well-associated with race. Pleistocene refugia may have existed in areas of high haplotypic diversity, as well as the Great Basin, Southwestern United States/northern Mexico, and the High Plains.

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations.

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century.

Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion.

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

Cross-species transferability of SSR loci developed from transciptome sequencing in lodgepole pine.

With the advent of next generation sequencing technologies, transcriptome level sequence collections are arising as prominent resources for the discovery of gene-based molecular markers. In a previous study more than 15,000 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) in expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences resulting from 454 pyrosequencing of Pinus contorta cDNA were identified. From these we developed PCR primers for approximately 4000 candidate SSRs. Here, we tested 184 of these SSRs for successful amplification across P. contorta and eight other pine species and examined patterns of polymorphism and allelic variability for a subset of these SSRs. Cross-species transferability was high, with high percentages of loci producing PCR products in all species tested. In addition, 50% of the loci we screened across panels of individuals from three of these species were polymorphic and allelically diverse. We examined levels of diversity in a subset of these SSRs by collecting genotypic data across several populations of Pinus ponderosa in northern Wyoming. Our results indicate the utility of mining pyrosequenced EST collections for gene-based SSRs and provide a source of molecular markers that should bolster evolutionary genetic investigations across the genus Pinus.

Reticulate evolution and incomplete lineage sorting among the ponderosa pines.

Interspecific gene flow via hybridization may play a major role in evolution by creating reticulate rather than hierarchical lineages in plant species. Occasional diploid pine hybrids indicate the potential for introgression, but reticulation is hard to detect because ancestral polymorphism is still shared across many groups of pine species. Nucleotide sequences for 53 accessions from 17 species in subsection Ponderosae (Pinus) provide evidence for reticulate evolution. Two discordant patterns among independent low-copy nuclear gene trees and a chloroplast haplotype are better explained by introgression than incomplete lineage sorting or other causes of incongruence. Conflicting resolution of three monophyletic Pinus coulteri accessions is best explained by ancient introgression followed by a genetic bottleneck. More recent hybridization transferred a chloroplast from P. jeffreyi to a sympatric P. washoensis individual. We conclude that incomplete lineage sorting could account for other examples of non-monophyly, and caution against any analysis based on single-accession or single-locus sampling in Pinus.

Genetic variation of piperidine alkaloids in Pinus ponderosa: a common garden study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous measurements of conifer alkaloids have revealed significant variation attributable to many sources, environmental and genetic. The present study takes a complementary and intensive, common garden approach to examine genetic variation in Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa alkaloid production. Additionally, this study investigates the potential trade-off between seedling growth and alkaloid production, and associations between topographic/climatic variables and alkaloid production. METHODS: Piperidine alkaloids were quantified in foliage of 501 nursery seedlings grown from seed sources in west-central Washington, Oregon and California, roughly covering the western half of the native range of ponderosa pine. A nested mixed model was used to test differences among broad-scale regions and among families within regions. Alkaloid concentrations were regressed on seedling growth measurements to test metabolite allocation theory. Likewise, climate characteristics at the seed sources were also considered as explanatory variables. KEY RESULTS: Quantitative variation from seedling to seedling was high, and regional variation exceeded variation among families. Regions along the western margin of the species range exhibited the highest alkaloid concentrations, while those further east had relatively low alkaloid levels. Qualitative variation in alkaloid profiles was low. All measures of seedling growth related negatively to alkaloid concentrations on a natural log scale; however, coefficients of determination were low. At best, annual height increment explained 19.4 % of the variation in ln(total alkaloids). Among the climate variables, temperature range showed a negative, linear association that explained 41.8 % of the variation. CONCLUSIONS: Given the wide geographic scope of the seed sources and the uniformity of resources in the seedlings' environment, observed differences in alkaloid concentrations are evidence for genetic regulation of alkaloid secondary metabolism in ponderosa pine. The theoretical trade-off with seedling growth appeared to be real, however slight. The climate variables provided little evidence for adaptive alkaloid variation, especially within regions.

Isozyme markers associated with O(3) tolerance indicate shift in genetic structure of ponderosa and Jeffrey pine in Sequoia National Park, California.

Effects of canopy ozone (O(3)) exposure and signatures of genetic structure using isozyme markers associated with O(3) tolerance were analyzed in approximately 20-, approximately 80-, and >200-yr-old ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.) in Sequoia National Park, California. For both species, the number of alleles and genotypes per loci was higher in parental trees relative to saplings. In ponderosa pine, the heterozygosity value increased, and the fixation index indicated reduction of homozygosity with increasing tree age class. The opposite tendencies were observed for Jeffrey pine. Utilizing canopy attributes known to be responsive to O(3) exposure, ponderosa pine was more symptomatic than Jeffrey pine, and saplings were more symptomatic than old growth trees. We suggest that these trends are related to differing sensitivity of the two species to O(3) exposure, and to higher O(3) exposures and drought stress that younger trees may have experienced during germination and establishment.

Testing hypotheses of Pleistocene population history using coalescent simulations: phylogeography of the pygmy nuthatch (Sitta pygmaea).

In this paper, we use mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 sequences to test Pleistocene refugial hypotheses for the pygmy nuthatch (Sitta pygmaea). Pygmy nuthatches are a common resident of long-needle pine forests in western North America and demonstrate a particular affinity with ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Palaeoecological and genetic data indicate that ponderosa pine was isolated in two Pleistocene refugia corresponding to areas in the southern Sierra Nevada in the west and southern Arizona and New Mexico in the east. We use coalescent simulations to test the hypothesis that pygmy nuthatches tracked the Pleistocene history of their preferred habitat and persisted in two refugia during the periods of glacial maxima. Coalescent simulation of population history does not support the hypothesis of two Pleistocene refugia for the pygmy nuthatch. Instead, our data are consistent with a single refuge model. Nucleotide diversity is greatest in the western populations of southern and coastal California. We suggest that the pygmy nuthatch expanded from a far western glacial refuge into its current distribution since the most recent glacial maximum.

Stricter ozone ambient air quality standard has beneficial effect on ponderosa pine in California.

Ambient air quality standards and control strategies are implemented to protect humans and vegetation from adverse effects. We used a process-based tree-growth model (TREGRO) to show that over the past 37 years, changes in O(3) exposure, with accompanying variation in climate, are reflected in changes in the growth of Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws. in the San Bernardino Mountains near Los Angeles, California, USA. Despite variation in temperature and precipitation over the study period (1963-1999), O(3) exposure consistently reduced simulated tree growth. Simulated growth reductions increased concurrent with increasing O(3) exposure. The maximum growth reduction occurred in 1979. As O(3) exposures decreased during the 1980s and 1990s, effects on growth also decreased. This implies that emission control strategies taken to reduce exposures to attain O(3) standards benefited P. ponderosa growth in the San Bernardino Mountains. This modeling approach provides a powerful tool for solving the difficult problem of evaluating regulatory effectiveness by simulating plant response using long-term climate and air pollution exposure records for a given region.

Mitochondrial haplotype distribution, seed dispersal and patterns of postglacial expansion of ponderosa pine.

Maternally inherited mtDNA in a secondary contact zone of ponderosa pine revealed a cline less than 10 km wide - much narrower than previously described. A survey of 76 populations gave no evidence either of intermixing or of a mosaic contact zone. Such sharp contact zones are consistent with diffusive range expansion, rather than long distance colonization. However, evidence for long distance seed dispersal events was found in two populations where haplotypes were observed far from their main area of occurrence. The results suggest a small number of long distance colonists with diffusive dispersal from these centres.