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1.
Inquiry ; 61: 469580241248101, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38685826

RESUMEN

In Ghana, malaria remains the number 1 reason for outpatient department visits, making it a major public health problem. Thus, there could be significant lost productivity days as a result of malaria morbidity and mortality, which could negatively affect economic output at the macrolevel. Nonetheless, there is a dearth of empirical evidence of the effect of malaria on macroeconomic output in Ghana. This study therefore aims to provide the foremost empirical evidence regarding the effect of malaria prevalence on macroeconomic output in Ghana using a time series design with data spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), serving as a proxy for macroeconomic output, is the dependent variable, while the prevalence of malaria (overall, among only males and among only females) serves as the main independent variable. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression is used as the baseline estimation technique and the Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Square (IV2SLS) regression is employed as the robustness check estimator due to its ability to deal with endogeneity. The IV2SLS regression results show that a percentage increase in the overall prevalence of malaria is associated with a 1.16% decrease in macroeconomic output at 1% significance level. We also find that the effect of malaria in males on macroeconomic output is slightly higher relative to females. The findings from the OLS regression are not qualitatively different from the IV2SLS regression estimates. There is therefore the need to strengthen efforts such as quality case management, larval source management, mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets, social behavior change, surveillance (both epidemiological and entomological), intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, research among others, which are important toward eliminating malaria.


Asunto(s)
Malaria , Humanos , Ghana/epidemiología , Malaria/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Femenino , Masculino , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores Sexuales
2.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 17(4): e0011204, 2023 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37079553

RESUMEN

The global 2030 goal set by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies deaths, has undeniably been a catalyst for many countries to re-assess existing dog rabies control programmes. Additionally, the 2030 agenda for Sustainable Development includes a blueprint for global targets which will benefit both people and secure the health of the planet. Rabies is acknowledged as a disease of poverty, but the connections between economic development and rabies control and elimination are poorly quantified yet, critical evidence for planning and prioritisation. We have developed multiple generalised linear models, to model the relationship between health care access, poverty, and death rate as a result of rabies, with separate indicators that can be used at country-level; total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and current health expenditure as a percentage of the total gross domestic product (% GDP) as an indicator of economic growth; and a metric of poverty assessing the extent and intensity of deprivation experienced at the individual level (Multidimensional Poverty Index, MPI). Notably there was no detectable relationship between GDP or current health expenditure (% GDP) and death rate from rabies. However, MPI showed statistically significant relationships with per capita rabies deaths and the probability of receiving lifesaving post exposure prophylaxis. We highlight that those most at risk of not being treated, and dying due to rabies, live in communities experiencing health care inequalities, readily measured through poverty indicators. These data demonstrate that economic growth alone, may not be enough to meet the 2030 goal. Indeed, other strategies such as targeting vulnerable populations and responsible pet ownership are also needed in addition to economic investment.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades de los Perros , Salud Global , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Rabia , Animales , Perros , Humanos , Enfermedades de los Perros/economía , Enfermedades de los Perros/epidemiología , Enfermedades de los Perros/prevención & control , Salud Global/economía , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Pobreza/economía , Pobreza/estadística & datos numéricos , Rabia/economía , Rabia/epidemiología , Rabia/prevención & control , Rabia/veterinaria , Virus de la Rabia , Mortalidad , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Desarrollo Económico/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Gastos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Profilaxis Posexposición/economía , Profilaxis Posexposición/estadística & datos numéricos , Organización Mundial de la Salud
3.
JBRA Assist Reprod ; 26(3): 398-406, 2022 08 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34978170

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Although there has been increased utilization of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in the world, there is no conclusive definition about the relationship between the success rate of ART and national wealth. METHODS: In this study, using the data from the International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ICMART), we sought to determine whether there is a correlation between the success rate of ART (represented by pregnancy and delivery rates) and national wealth represented by the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Moreover, to further understand the effect of GDP per capita on ART effectiveness, we analyzed the association between ART success rate and GDP per capita in 50 US states. RESULTS: Our data showed that the number of ART treatment cycles increased as the GDP per capita increased. However, we found a negative correlation between ART success rates and GDP per capita in ICMART countries, although no correlation was seen in the US states. Using rough estimation, we derived that the success rate of ART was not related to GDP per capita in the ICMART countries with a GDP per capita greater than USD 13,000. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, for the first time, we showed that when the GDP per capita of an economic territory reaches (or exceeds) USD 13,000, ART pregnancy and delivery rates were not associated with GDP per capita, and ART success rates remained stable.


Asunto(s)
Producto Interno Bruto , Técnicas Reproductivas Asistidas , Femenino , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Embarazo , Técnicas Reproductivas Asistidas/estadística & datos numéricos
4.
Rev. ABENO ; 21(1): 1134, dez. 2021. tab
Artículo en Portugués | BBO - Odontología | ID: biblio-1373120

RESUMEN

O objetivo deste estudo foi relacionar a distribuição dos cursos de Odontologia, número de cirurgiões-dentistas(CD)ePIBper capita em municípios paraibanos com cursos de graduação em Odontologia. Trata-se de um estudo transversal descritivo com utilização de dados coletados diretamente dossites do Conselho Federal de Odontologia, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatísticae do Cadastro Nacional de Cursose Instituições de Ensino Superior. Todos os dados utilizados nesta pesquisa são de acesso público. AParaíba possui 16 cursos de graduação em Odontologia, distribuídos em 6 munícipios: Araruna (1; 6,25%), Cabedelo (1; 6,25%), Cajazeiras (2; 12,50%), Campina Grande (6; 37,50%), João Pessoa (4; 25,00%) e Patos (2; 12,50%).Os municípios com maiores valores de PIB per capita, como João Pessoa (R$24.319,82) e Campina Grande (R$21.077,30), apresentaram também maior número de CD, com uma correlação positiva entre os valores do PIB per capitade cada município e a quantidade de cursos e profissionais. Apesar disso, Cabedelo, município paraibano com apenas um curso de Odontologia, sendo este na rede privada, e 126 CDs em atividade, tem o maior PIB per capita do estado (R$ 42.556,16). O PIB per capita parece ser responsável pela distribuição de CDs nos municípios com cursos de graduação em Odontologia, no entanto, fatores como qualidade de vida, mercado de trabalho e saúde, tendem a exercerforte influência na distribuição destes profissionais (AU).


This study aimed at relating the distribution of Dentistry courses, number of dental surgeons (DS) and GDP per capitain municipalities of the state of Paraíbawith undergraduate courses in Dentistry. This is a descriptive cross-sectional study using secondary data from the Brazilian Federal Council of Dentistry (CFO), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the National Registry of HigherEducation Courses and Institutions. All data used in this study is publicly accessible. The state has 16 undergraduate courses in Dentistry, distributed in 6 municipalities: Araruna (1; 6.25%), Cabedelo (1; 6.25%), Cajazeiras (2; 12.50%), Campina Grande (6; 37.50%), João Pessoa (4; 25.00%) and Ducks (2; 12.50%). The municipalities with the highest GDP per capita, such as João Pessoa (R$ 24,319.82) and Campina Grande (R$ 21,077.30), also had a higher number of DS, with a positive correlation between the values of GDPper capita of each municipality and the number of courses and professionals. Besides, Cabedelo, a municipality in Paraíbawith only one Dentistry course, which is in the private network, and 126 active DS, has the highest GDPper capita in the state (R$ 42,556.16) (table 2). According to the results presented in this study, GDP per capita seems to be responsible for the distribution of SD in municipalities with undergraduate courses in Dentistry. However, factors such as quality of life, labor market and health tend to strongly influence the distribution of these professionals (AU).


Asunto(s)
Universidades/estadística & datos numéricos , Censos , Odontólogos/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Transversales/métodos , Interpretación Estadística de Datos
5.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(41): e27414, 2021 Oct 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34731114

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Global variation in the incidence and outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with many factors, among which screening policies and early treatment play substantial roles. However, screening programs and intense treatment are expensive and require good health care systems. For CRC, no clear association has yet been established between clinical outcomes and health care disparities. METHOD: We used the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of CRC as a measure of clinical outcomes for comparison with the Human Development Index (HDI), current health expenditure (CHE), and current health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (CHE/GDP) using linear regression analyses. We included 171 countries based on data from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database. RESULTS: We found that the regions with the lowest MIRs for CRC are Oceania and North America. A significant correlation was observed between incidence, mortality and HDI, CHE, and CHE/GDP among the countries enrolled. Furthermore, lower MIRs of CRC significantly correlated with higher HDI, CHE, and CHE/GDP (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: : CRC MIRs tend to be most favorable in countries with high health care expenditures and a high HDI.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Colorrectales/mortalidad , Gastos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Bases de Datos Factuales , Salud Global , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Disparidades en Atención de Salud , Humanos , Incidencia
6.
Epidemiol Infect ; 150: e1, 2021 11 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34782027

RESUMEN

This paper demonstrates how the combustion of fossil fuels for transport purpose might cause health implications. Based on an original case study [i.e. the Hubei province in China, the epicentre of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic], we collected data on atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10 and CO2) and economic growth (GDP), along with daily series on COVID-19 indicators (cases, resuscitations and deaths). Then, we adopted an innovative Machine Learning approach, applying a new image Neural Networks model to investigate the causal relationships among economic, atmospheric and COVID-19 indicators. Empirical findings emphasise that any change in economic activity is found to substantially affect the dynamic levels of PM2.5, PM10 and CO2 which, in turn, generates significant variations in the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and its associated lethality. As a robustness check, the conduction of an optimisation algorithm further corroborates previous results.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , COVID-19/mortalidad , Combustibles Fósiles/efectos adversos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Redes Neurales de la Computación , Dióxido de Carbono/efectos adversos , China/epidemiología , Desarrollo Económico/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Material Particulado/efectos adversos
8.
Lancet ; 398(10305): 1091-1104, 2021 09 18.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34481560

RESUMEN

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.


Asunto(s)
Atención a la Salud , Reforma de la Atención de Salud , Instituciones de Salud/provisión & distribución , Financiación de la Atención de la Salud , Enfermedades no Transmisibles/epidemiología , Atención Primaria de Salud/economía , Envejecimiento/fisiología , Creación de Capacidad , Atención a la Salud/economía , Atención a la Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/tendencias , Gastos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Singapur/epidemiología
9.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 17744, 2021 09 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34493760

RESUMEN

A simple method is utilised to study and compare COVID-19 infection dynamics between countries based on curve fitting to publicly shared data of confirmed COVID-19 infections. The method was tested using data from 80 countries from 6 continents. We found that Johnson cumulative density functions (CDFs) were extremely well fitted to the data (R2 > 0.99) and that Johnson CDFs were much better fitted to the tails of the data than either the commonly used normal or lognormal CDFs. Fitted Johnson CDFs can be used to obtain basic parameters of the infection wave, such as the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the days of the start, peak and end of the infection wave, and the duration of the wave's increase and decrease. These parameters can be easily interpreted biologically and used both for describing infection wave dynamics and in further statistical analysis. The usefulness of the parameters obtained was analysed with respect to the relation between the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the population density, the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the starting day and the duration of the infection wave in the 80 countries. We found that all the above parameters were significantly associated with GDP per capita, but only the percentage of the population infected was significantly associated with population density. If used with caution, this method has a limited ability to predict the future trajectory and parameters of an ongoing infection wave.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Predicción/métodos , Modelos Estadísticos , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Estudios de Factibilidad , Carga Global de Enfermedades , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Distribución Normal , Densidad de Población
10.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256037, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34407081

RESUMEN

In this work, we propose a quantitative model for the 2019 Chilean protests. We utilize public data for the consumer price index, the gross domestic product, and the employee and per capita income distributions as inputs for a nonlinear diffusion-reaction equation, the solutions to which provide an in-depth analysis of the population dynamics. Specifically, the per capita income distribution stands out as a solution to the extended Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. According to our results, the concavity of employee income distribution is a decisive input parameter and, in contrast to the distributions typically observed for Chile and other countries in Latin America, should ideally be non-negative. Based on the results of our model, we advocate for the implementation of social policies designed to stimulate social mobility by broadening the distribution of higher salaries.


Asunto(s)
Demografía/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Renta/estadística & datos numéricos , Política Pública/tendencias , Chile/etnología , Humanos , América Latina/etnología , Modelos Teóricos , Dinámica Poblacional , Factores Socioeconómicos
11.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256162, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34407153

RESUMEN

The development of China's manufacturing industry has received global attention. However, research on the distribution pattern, changes, and driving forces of the manufacturing industry has been limited by the accessibility of data. This study proposes a method for classifying based on natural language processing. A case study was conducted employing this method, hotspot detection and driving force analysis, wherein the driving forces industrial development during the "13th Five-Year plan" period in Jiangsu province were determined. The main conclusions of the empirical case study are as follows. 1) Through the acquisition of Amap's point-of-interest (POI, a special point location that commonly used in modern automotive navigation systems.) data, an industry type classification algorithm based on the natural language processing of POI names is proposed, with Jiangsu Province serving as an example. The empirical test shows that the accuracy was 95%, and the kappa coefficient was 0.872. 2) The seven types of manufacturing industries including the pulp and paper (PP) industry, metallurgical chemical (MC) industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing (PM) industry, machinery and electronics (ME) industry, wood furniture (WF) industry, textile clothing (TC) industry, and agricultural and food product processing (AF) industry are drawn through a 1 km× 1km projection grid. The evolution map of the spatial pattern and the density field hotspots are also drawn. 3) After analyzing the driving forces of the changes in the number of manufacturing industries mentioned above, we found that manufacturing base, distance from town, population, GDP per capita, distance from the railway station were the significant driving factors of changes in the manufacturing industries mentioned above. The results of this research can help guide the development of manufacturing industries, maximize the advantages of regional factors and conditions, and provide insight into how the spatial layout of the manufacturing industry could be optimized.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Desarrollo Económico/tendencias , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Industria Manufacturera/organización & administración , Procesamiento de Lenguaje Natural , Políticas , Transportes/métodos , China , Ciudades , Eficiencia
12.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0253291, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34197494

RESUMEN

Multicollinearity widely exists in empirical studies, which leads to imprecise estimation and even endogeneity when omitted variables are correlated with any regressors. We apply an innovative strategy, different from the usual tools (instrumental variable, ridge regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), to estimate the robust determinants of income distribution. We transform panel data into (quasi-) cross-sectional data by removing country and time effects from the data so that all variables become zero mean and orthogonal to the country dummies and time variable, and multicollinearity becomes very low or even disappears with the quasi-cross sectional data in any specifications regardless of country dummies and time variable being included or not. Our contribution is threefold. First, we build a general method to address the multicollinearity issue in panel data, which is to isolate the common contents of correlated variables and ensures robust estimates in different specifications (dynamic or static specifications) and estimators (within- or between-effects estimators). Second, we find no evidence for the Kuznets hypothesis within and across countries; investment is economically and statistically the most robust determinant of income inequality; meanwhile, labor income share shows robustly and consistently positive effects on income inequality, which challenges the related literature. Last, simulations with our estimates show that the total marginal effects of development (regarding GDP, capital stock and investment) on income inequality are very likely to be positive within and between countries except that the impacts on middle-60% and top-quintile income shares are not so likely to increase income inequality across countries.


Asunto(s)
Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Renta/estadística & datos numéricos , Factores Socioeconómicos , Estudios Transversales , Escolaridad , Humanos
13.
J Nerv Ment Dis ; 209(8): 558-563, 2021 Aug 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34009863

RESUMEN

ABSTRACT: This descriptive study observes the relationship between antidepressant prescriptions and the suicide rate in Italy in the 2000s to the mid-2010s, which includes a period of severe economic crisis. The observation period was from 2000 to 2015. Suicide and unemployment rates disaggregated by age and sex were collected from the Italian Institute of Statistics. Statistical analyses were performed using correlations between suicide rates and the defined daily dose, with reference to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), and other types of antidepressants. Fixed-effects panel regressions were also run. Increases in SSRIs prescriptions were associated with decreases in suicide rates among both men and women. However, when the analyses were adjusted for the rate of growth of the unemployment rate and for gross domestic product, the associations were weaker. The potential protective factor of SSRIs with respect to suicidal behavior may be reduced by severe recessions, especially when unemployment increases.


Asunto(s)
Estrés Financiero/epidemiología , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Inhibidores Selectivos de la Recaptación de Serotonina/uso terapéutico , Suicidio/estadística & datos numéricos , Desempleo/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antidepresivos Tricíclicos/uso terapéutico , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Italia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven
14.
Crit Care Med ; 49(6): e598-e612, 2021 06 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33729718

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the "Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury" decision support tool during ICU admission and rounding is associated with improvements in nonadherence to evidence-based daily care processes and outcomes in variably resourced ICUs. DESIGN, SETTINGS, PATIENTS: This before-after study was performed in 34 ICUs (15 countries) from 2013 to 2017. Data were collected for 3 months before and 6 months after Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation. INTERVENTIONS: Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation using remote simulation training. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The coprimary outcomes, modified from the original protocol before data analysis, were nonadherence to 10 basic care processes and ICU and hospital length of stay. There were 1,447 patients in the preimplementation phase and 2,809 patients in the postimplementation phase. After adjusting for center effect, Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation was associated with reduced nonadherence to care processes (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI]): deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis (0.74 [0.68-0.81), peptic ulcer prophylaxis (0.46 [0.38-0.57]), spontaneous breathing trial (0.81 [0.76-0.86]), family conferences (0.86 [0.81-0.92]), and daily assessment for the need of central venous catheters (0.85 [0.81-0.90]), urinary catheters (0.84 [0.80-0.88]), antimicrobials (0.66 [0.62-0.71]), and sedation (0.62 [0.57-0.67]). Analyses adjusted for baseline characteristics showed associations of Checklist for Early Recognition and Treatment of Acute Illness and Injury implementation with decreased ICU length of stay (adjusted ratio of geometric means [95% CI]) 0.86 [0.80-0.92]), hospital length of stay (0.92 [0.85-0.97]), and hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], 0.81 (0.69-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: A quality-improvement intervention with remote simulation training to implement a decision support tool was associated with decreased nonadherence to daily care processes, shorter length of stay, and decreased mortality.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad Aguda/epidemiología , Lista de Verificación , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/organización & administración , Mejoramiento de la Calidad/organización & administración , Heridas y Lesiones/epidemiología , Anciano , Reglas de Decisión Clínica , Femenino , Adhesión a Directriz , Humanos , Cuidados para Prolongación de la Vida/métodos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Péptidos Cíclicos , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Estudios Prospectivos , Indicadores de Calidad de la Atención de Salud , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Entrenamiento Simulado , Factores Socioeconómicos
15.
Infect Genet Evol ; 91: 104817, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33774176

RESUMEN

After the outbreak of the new COVID-19 disease, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other parameters became possible for the European countries and has been performed in this work. Based on a proposed parametrization model appropriate for implementation to an epidemic in a large population, we focused on the disease spread and we studied the obtained curves, as well as, investigating probable correlations between the country's characteristics and the parameters of the parametrization. We have also developed a methodology for coupling our model to the SIR-based models determining the basic and the effective reproductive number referring to the parameter space. The obtained results and conclusions could be useful in the case of a recurrence of this insidious disease in the future.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Modelos Estadísticos , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , COVID-19/virología , Simulación por Computador , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Predicción , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Densidad de Población , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología
16.
PLoS One ; 16(2): e0244510, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33577604

RESUMEN

The association between bladder cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and healthcare disparities has gender differences. However, no evidence supports gender as an issue in the association between changes in the MIR and health expenditures on bladder cancer. Changes in the MIR were defined as the difference in data from the years 2012 and 2018, which was named δMIR. Current health expenditures (CHE) and the human development index (HDI) were obtained from the World Health Organization and the Human Development Report Office. The association between variables was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. In total, 55 countries were analyzed according to data quality and the exclusion of missing data. Globally, the MIR changed according to the HDI level in both genders. Among the 55 countries studied, a high HDI and CHE were significantly associated with a favorable age-standardized rate-based MIR (ASR-based MIR) in both genders and the subgroups according to gender (for both genders, MIR vs. HDI: ρ = -0.720, p < 0.001; MIR vs. CHE per capita: ρ = -0.760, p < 0.001; MIR vs. CHE as a percentage of gross domestic product (CHE/GDP): ρ = -0.663, p < 0.001). Importantly, in females only, the CHE/GDP but neither the HDI score nor the CHE per capita was significantly associated with a favorable ASR-based δMIR (ASR-based δMIR vs. CHE/GDP: ρ = 0.414, p = 0.002). In the gender subgroups, the association between the HDI and the CHE was statistically significant for females and less significant for males. In conclusion, favorable bladder ASR-based MIRs were associated with a high CHE; however, improvement of the ASR-based δMIR data was more correlated with the CHE in females. Further investigation of the gender differences via a cohort survey with detailed information of clinical-pathological characteristics, treatment strategies, and outcomes might clarify these issues and improve therapeutic and/or screening strategies for bladder cancer.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias de la Vejiga Urinaria/economía , Neoplasias de la Vejiga Urinaria/mortalidad , Manejo de Datos , Bases de Datos Factuales , Femenino , Salud Global , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Gastos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Disparidades en Atención de Salud , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Enfermedades Raras , Factores Sexuales , Vejiga Urinaria/patología , Organización Mundial de la Salud
18.
Dig Dis Sci ; 66(3): 814-822, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32361922

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Examining the prevalence of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) across regions has been challenging given significant methodological heterogeneity. AIMS: We aimed to perform a uniform assessment of the global burden of IBS using data from Google Trends, a novel, online tool. METHODS: Google Trends measures popularity of a search term in a given week compared to popularity of all search terms in that week, calculated as relative search volume (RSV). We compiled data on the popularity of IBS and its treatments across 173 countries between 2014 and 2018. We compared Google Trends popularity for IBS with prior epidemiological prevalence data, while controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and physician density. RESULTS: Of the 173 countries with Google Trends data, 137 countries also had data for GDP per capita and physician density. Worldwide popularity of IBS as a search topic increased from 79 to 89 (13% increase by RSV) over the 5-year period between 2014 and 2018. Country-specific change in IBS RSV ranged from - 35% (Nigeria) to + 64% (Pakistan). There was poor correlation between the Google Trends data and prior epidemiological data (0.08, Pearson correlation, p = 0.64). Popularity of the low-FODMAP diet increased the most among 8 common therapies (RSV 41 to 89, 117% increase). CONCLUSIONS: Google Trends is a novel tool that can complement traditional epidemiological methods in gastrointestinal disease. Future research is needed to assess its utility and accuracy as a measure of disease burden across different gastrointestinal diseases.


Asunto(s)
Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Carga Global de Enfermedades/tendencias , Salud Global/tendencias , Síndrome del Colon Irritable/epidemiología , Motor de Búsqueda/estadística & datos numéricos , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Médicos/provisión & distribución , Prevalencia
19.
Front Public Health ; 8: 615344, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330348

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various macroeconomic indicators. Given this backdrop, this research investigates the effects of the pandemics-related uncertainty on household consumption. For this purpose, we construct a simple theoretical model to study the effects of the pandemics-related uncertainty on household consumption. To estimate the theoretical model, we consider the panel dataset of 138 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. We also use the Pandemic Uncertainty Index to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The theoretical model and the empirical findings from the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimations indicate that the gross fixed capital formation, government consumption, balance of trade, and the Pandemic Uncertainty Index negatively affect household consumption. The results are also valid in the panel dataset of 42 high-income economies and the remaining 96 emerging economies.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/economía , COVID-19/psicología , Composición Familiar , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias/economía , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Incertidumbre , Humanos , Modelos Econométricos , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Pan Afr Med J ; 35(Suppl 2): 131, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33193946

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 States in Nigeria. METHODS: we analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. RESULTS: our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 States, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 States: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9 per million population. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP (r=0.53) and to a lesser extent with TB (r=0.36) and population density (r=0.38). On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP States had a greater CMR. CONCLUSION: this study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain States in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Vacuna BCG , COVID-19 , Femenino , Geografía Médica , Producto Interno Bruto/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Alfabetización/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Nigeria/epidemiología , Densidad de Población , Prevalencia , Utilización de Procedimientos y Técnicas , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2 , Fumar/epidemiología , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Desempleo/estadística & datos numéricos , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricos
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