Spillover Effects of Medicare's Voluntary Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement Surgery to Patients Insured by Commercial Health Plans.

BACKGROUND: Under the Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) program, bundled paymtents for lower-extremity joint replacement (LEJR) are associated with 2% to 4% cost savings with stable quality among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. However, BPCI may prompt practice changes that benefit all patients, not just fee-for-service beneficiaries. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between hospital participation in BPCI and LEJR outcomes for patients with commercial insurance or Medicare Advantage (MA). DESIGN: Quasi-experimental study using Health Care Cost Institute claims from 2011 to 2016. SETTING: LEJR at 281 BPCI hospitals and 562 non-BPCI hospitals. PATIENTS: 184 922 patients with MA or commercial insurance. MEASUREMENTS: Differential changes in LEJR outcomes at BPCI hospitals versus at non-BPCI hospitals matched on propensity score were evaluated using a difference-in-differences (DID) method. Secondary analyses evaluated associations by patient MA status and hospital characteristics. Primary outcomes were changes in 90-day total spending on LEJR episodes and 90-day readmissions; secondary outcomes were postacute spending and discharge to postacute care providers. RESULTS: Average episode spending decreased more at BPCI versus non-BPCI hospitals (change, -2.2% [95% CI, -3.6% to -0.71%]; P = 0.004), but differences in changes in 90-day readmissions were not significant (adjusted DID, -0.47 percentage point [CI, -1.0 to 0.06 percentage point]; P = 0.084). Participation in BPCI was also associated with differences in decreases in postacute spending and discharge to institutional postacute care providers. Decreases in episode spending were larger for hospitals with high baseline spending but did not vary by MA status. LIMITATION: Nonrandomized studies are subject to residual confounding and selection. CONCLUSION: Participation in BPCI was associated with modest spillovers in episode savings. Bundled payments may prompt hospitals to implement broad care redesign that produces benefits regardless of insurance coverage. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics at the University of Pennsylvania.

Targeting for male medical circumcision: profiles from two South African cities.

Male circumcision is considered by some to be an acceptable global approach to reduce HIV infections. Consequently, many governments in sub-Saharan Africa run voluntary male circumcision programmes. South Africa also provides male circumcision for free at state clinics and hospitals. Very little is known about the men who use this service. This study uses data from Cape Town, a sample of 1194 in 2016, and from Mangaung, a sample of 277 in 2017 and 2018, to fill this gap. The study finds that age targeting is inadequate, risk targeting is absent, and religious and cultural factors have a negative effect on the cost-efficiency of the service in the long run.

Balancing competing priorities: Quantity versus quality within a routine, voluntary medical male circumcision program operating at scale in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, the ZAZIC consortium supported the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC) to implement a high quality, integrated voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in 13 districts. With the aim of significantly lowering global HIV rates, prevention programs like VMMC make every effort to achieve ambitious targets at an increasingly reduced cost. This has the potential to threaten VMMC program quality. Two measures of program quality are follow-up and adverse event (AE) rates. To inform further VMMC program improvement, ZAZIC conducted a quality assurance (QA) activity to assess if pressure to do more with less influenced program quality. METHODS: Key informant interviews (KIIs) were conducted at 9 sites with 7 site-based VMMC program officers and 9 ZAZIC roving team members. Confidentiality was ensured to encourage candid conversation on adherence to VMMC standards, methods to increase productivity, challenges to target achievement, and suggestions for program modification. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed using Atlas.ti 6. RESULTS: VMMC teams work long hours in diverse community settings to reach ambitious targets. Rotating, large teams of trained VMMC providers ensures meeting demand. Service providers prioritize VMMC safety procedures and implement additional QA measures to prevent AEs among all clients, especially minors. However, KIs noted three areas where pressure for increased numbers of clients diminished adherence to VMMC safety standards. For pre- and post-operative counselling, MC teams may combine individual and group sessions to reach more people, potentially reducing client understanding of critical wound care instructions. Second, key infection control practices may be compromised (handwashing, scrubbing techniques, and preoperative client preparation) to speed MC procedures. Lastly, pressure for client numbers may reduce prioritization of patient follow-up, while client-perceived stigma may reduce care-seeking. Although AEs appear well managed, delays in AE identification and lack of consistent AE reporting compromise program quality. CONCLUSION: In pursuit of ambitious targets, healthcare workers may compromise quality of MC services. Although risk to patients may appear minimal, careful consideration of the realities and risks of ambitious target setting by donors, ministries, and implementing partners could help to ensure that client safety and program quality is consistently prioritized over productivity.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision to Prevent HIV: Modelling Age Prioritization in Namibia.

Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) has been part of prevention in Namibia since 2009. Yet, as of 2013, VMMC coverage among 15- to 24-year-olds was estimated at less than 22%. Program data suggests uptake of VMMC below age 15 is lower than expected, given the age distribution of the eligible population. Nearly 85% of VMMCs were for males between ages 15 and 29, while boys 10-14 years were referred outside the program. This analysis uses the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool to understand the impact of age prioritization on circumcision in Namibia. Results indicate that circumcising males aged 20-29 reduced HIV incidence most rapidly, while focusing on ages 15-24 was more cost effective and produced greater magnitude of impact. Providing services to those under 15 could increase VMMC volume 67% while introducing Early Infant Medical Circumcision could expand coverage. This exercise supported a review of VMMC strategies and implementation, with Namibia increasing coverage among 10- to 14-year-olds nearly 20 times from 2016 to 2017.

A Performance-Based Incentives System for Village Health Workers in Kisoro, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Village health worker (VHW) programs in Uganda have achieved limited success, due in part to a reliance on volunteerism and a lack of standardized incentive mechanisms. However, how to best incentivize VHWs remains unclear. Doctors for Global Health developed a performance-based incentives (PBI) system to pay its VHWs in Kisoro, Uganda, based on performance of tasks or achievement of targets. OBJECTIVES: 1. To describe the development of a PBI system used to compensate VHWs. 2. To report cost and health services delivery outcomes under a PBI system. 3. To provide qualitative analysis on the successes and challenges of PBI. METHODS: Internal organization records from May 2016 to April 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. The results of descriptive and analytic statistics were reported. Qualitative analysis was performed by the authors. FINDINGS: In one year, 42 VHWs performed 23,703 remunerable health actions, such as providing care of minor ailments and chronic disease. VHWs earned on average $237. The total cost to maintain the program was $29,844, or $0.72 per villager. There was 0% VHW attrition. Strengths of PBI included flexibility, accountability, higher VHW earnings, and improved monitoring and evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: PBI is a feasible and sustainable model of compensating VHWs. At a time where VHW programs are sorely needed to address limitations in healthcare resources, yet are facing challenges with workforce compensation, PBI may serve as a model for others in Uganda and around the world.

Data triangulation to estimate age-specific coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention in four Kenyan counties.

BACKGROUND: Kenya is 1 of 14 priority countries in Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention following the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. To inform VMMC target setting, we modeled the impact of circumcising specific client age groups across several Kenyan geographic areas. METHODS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2 (DMPPT 2) was applied in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties. Initial modeling done in mid-2016 showed coverage estimates above 100% in age groups and geographic areas where demand for VMMC continued to be high. On the basis of information obtained from country policy makers and VMMC program implementers, we adjusted circumcision coverage for duplicate reporting, county-level population estimates, migration across county boundaries for VMMC services, and replacement of traditional circumcision with circumcisions in the VMMC program. To address residual inflated coverage following these adjustments we applied county-specific correction factors computed by triangulating model results with coverage estimates from population surveys. RESULTS: A program record review identified duplicate reporting in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya. Using county population estimates from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, we found that adjusting for migration and correcting for replacement of traditional circumcision with VMMC led to lower estimates of 2016 male circumcision coverage especially for Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Even after addressing these issues, overestimation of 2016 male circumcision coverage persisted, especially in Homa Bay. We estimated male circumcision coverage in 2016 by applying correction factors. Modeled estimates for 2016 circumcision coverage for the 10- to 14-year age group ranged from 50% in Homa Bay to approximately 90% in Kisumu. Results for the 15- to 19-year age group suggest almost complete coverage in Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Coverage for the 20- to 24-year age group ranged from about 80% in Siaya to about 90% in Homa Bay, coverage for those aged 25-29 years ranged from about 60% in Siaya to 80% in Migori, and coverage in those aged 30-34 years ranged from about 50% in Siaya to about 70% in Migori. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis points to solutions for some of the data issues encountered in Kenya. Kenya is the first country in which these data issues have been encountered because baseline circumcision rates were high. We anticipate that some of the modeling methods we developed for Kenya will be applicable in other countries.

Scale-Up of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Services for HIV Prevention - 12 Countries in Southern and Eastern Africa, 2013-2016.

Countries in Southern and Eastern Africa have the highest prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the world; in 2015, 52% (approximately 19 million) of all persons living with HIV infection resided in these two regions.* Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk for heterosexually acquired HIV infection among males by approximately 60% (1). As such, it is an essential component of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) strategy for ending acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) by 2030 (2). Substantial progress toward achieving VMMC targets has been made in the 10 years since the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNAIDS recommended scale-up of VMMC for HIV prevention in 14 Southern and Eastern African countries with generalized HIV epidemics and low male circumcision prevalence (3).† This has been enabled in part by nearly $2 billion in cumulative funding through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), administered through multiple U.S. governmental agencies, including CDC, which has supported nearly half of all PEPFAR-supported VMMCs to date. Approximately 14.5 million VMMCs were performed globally during 2008-2016, which represented 70% of the original target of 20.8 million VMMCs in males aged 15-49 years through 2016 (4). Despite falling short of the target, these VMMCs are projected to avert 500,000 HIV infections by the end of 2030 (4). However, UNAIDS has estimated an additional 27 million VMMCs need to be performed by 2021 to meet the Fast Track targets (2). This report updates a previous report covering the period 2010-2012, when VMMC implementing partners supported by CDC performed approximately 1 million VMMCs in nine countries (5). During 2013-2016, these implementing partners performed nearly 5 million VMMCs in 12 countries. Meeting the global target will require redoubling current efforts and introducing novel strategies that increase demand among subgroups of males who have historically been reluctant to undergo VMMC.

Modeling Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Increased Efforts to Attract Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Clients Ages 20-29 in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe aims to increase circumcision coverage to 80% among 13- to 29-year-olds. However, implementation data suggest that high coverage among men ages 20 and older may not be achievable without efforts specifically targeted to these men, incurring additional costs per circumcision. Scale-up scenarios were created based on trends in implementation data in Zimbabwe, and the cost-effectiveness of increasing efforts to recruit clients ages 20-29 was examined. METHODS: Zimbabwe voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program data were used to project trends in male circumcision coverage by age into the future. The projection informed a base scenario in which, by 2018, the country achieves 80% circumcision coverage among males ages 10-19 and lower levels of coverage among men above age 20. The Zimbabwe DMPPT 2.0 model was used to project costs and impacts, assuming a US$109 VMMC unit cost in the base scenario and a 3% discount rate. Two other scenarios assumed that the program could increase coverage among clients ages 20-29 with a corresponding increase in unit cost for these age groups. RESULTS: When circumcision coverage among men ages 20-29 is increased compared with a base scenario reflecting current implementation trends, fewer VMMCs are required to avert one infection. If more than 50% additional effort (reflected as multiplying the unit cost by >1.5) is required to double the increase in coverage among this age group compared with the base scenario, the cost per HIV infection averted is higher than in the base scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Although increased investment in recruiting VMMC clients ages 20-29 may lead to greater overall impact if recruitment efforts are successful, it may also lead to lower cost-effectiveness, depending on the cost of increasing recruitment. Programs should measure the relationship between increased effort and increased ability to attract this age group.

Cost and Impact of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa: Focusing the Program on Specific Age Groups and Provinces.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, South Africa set a goal of circumcising 4.3 million men ages 15-49 by 2016. By the end of March 2014, 1.9 million men had received voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). In an effort to accelerate progress, South Africa undertook a modeling exercise to determine whether circumcising specific client age groups or geographic locations would be particularly impactful or cost-effective. Results will inform South Africa's efforts to develop a national strategy and operational plan for VMMC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study team populated the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0) with HIV incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM), as well as national and provincial population and HIV prevalence estimates. We derived baseline circumcision rates from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The model showed that circumcising men ages 20-34 offers the most immediate impact on HIV incidence and requires the fewest circumcisions per HIV infection averted. The greatest impact over a 15-year period is achieved by circumcising men ages 15-24. When the model assumes a unit cost increase with client age, men ages 15-29 emerge as the most cost-effective group. When we assume a constant cost for all ages, the most cost-effective age range is 15-34 years. Geographically, the program is cost saving in all provinces; differences in the VMMC program's cost-effectiveness across provinces were obscured by uncertainty in HIV incidence projections. CONCLUSION: The VMMC program's impact and cost-effectiveness vary by age-targeting strategy. A strategy focusing on men ages 15-34 will maximize program benefits. However, because clients older than 25 access VMMC services at low rates, South Africa could consider promoting demand among men ages 25-34, without denying services to those in other age groups. Uncertainty in the provincial estimates makes them insufficient to support geographic targeting.

Modeling Costs and Impacts of Introducing Early Infant Male Circumcision for Long-Term Sustainability of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to be an effective prevention strategy against HIV infection in males [1-3]. Since 2007, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported VMMC programs in 14 priority countries in Africa. Today several of these countries are preparing to transition their VMMC programs from a scale-up and expansion phase to a maintenance phase. As they do so, they must consider the best approaches to sustain high levels of male circumcision in the population. The two alternatives under consideration are circumcising adolescents 10-14 years old over the long term or integrating early infant male circumcision (EIMC) into maternal and child health programs. The paper presents an analysis, using the Decision Makers Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), of the estimated cost and impact of introducing EIMC into existing VMMC programs in several countries in eastern and southern Africa. Limited cost data exist for the implementation of EIMC, but preliminary studies, such as the one detailed in Mangenah, et al. [4-5], suggest that the cost of EIMC may be less than that of adolescent and adult male circumcision. If this is the case, then adding EIMC to the VMMC program will increase the number of circumcisions that need to be performed but will not increase the total cost of the program over the long term. In addition, we found that a delayed or slow start-up of EIMC would not substantially reduce the impact of adding it to the program or increase cumulative long-term costs, which should make introduction of EIMC more feasible and attractive to countries contemplating such a program innovation.

The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of Focusing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention on Specific Age Groups and Regions in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since its launch in 2010, the Tanzania National Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) Program has focused efforts on males ages 10-34 in 11 priority regions. Implementers have noted that over 70% of VMMC clients are between the ages of 10 and 19, raising questions about whether additional efforts would be required to recruit men age 20 and above. This analysis uses mathematical modeling to examine the economic and epidemiological consequences of scaling up VMMC among specific age groups and priority regions in Tanzania. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses were conducted using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a compartmental model implemented in Microsoft Excel 2010. The model was populated with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections from external sources, including outputs from Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM). A separate DMPPT 2.0 model was created for each of the 11 priority regions. Tanzania can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising males ages 20-34. This strategy would also require the fewest VMMCs for each HIV infection averted. Circumcising men ages 10-24 will have the greatest impact on HIV incidence over a 15-year period. The most cost-effective approach (lowest cost per HIV infection averted) targets men ages 15-34. The model shows the VMMC program is cost saving in all 11 priority regions. VMMC program cost-effectiveness varies across regions due to differences in projected HIV incidence, with the most cost-effective programs in Njombe and Iringa. CONCLUSIONS: The DMPPT 2.0 results reinforce Tanzania's current VMMC strategy, providing newfound confidence in investing in circumcising adolescents. Tanzanian policy makers and program implementers will continue to focus scale-up of VMMC on men ages 10-34 years, seeking to maximize program impact and cost-effectiveness while acknowledging trends in demand among the younger and older age groups.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Malawi: Modeling the Impact and Cost of Focusing the Program by Client Age and Geography.

BACKGROUND: In 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in priority countries with high HIV prevalence and low male circumcision (MC) prevalence. According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), an estimated 5.8 million males had undergone VMMC by the end of 2013. Implementation experience has raised questions about the need to refocus VMMC programs on specific subpopulations for the greatest epidemiological impact and programmatic effectiveness. As Malawi prepared its national operational plan for VMMC, it sought to examine the impacts of focusing on specific subpopulations by age and region. METHODS: We used the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, Version 2.0, to study the impact of scaling up VMMC to different target populations of Malawi. National MC prevalence by age group from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey was scaled according to the MC prevalence for each district and then halved, to adjust for over-reporting of circumcision. In-country stakeholders advised a VMMC unit cost of $100, based on implementation experience. We derived a cost of $451 per patient-year for antiretroviral therapy from costs collected as part of a strategic planning exercise previously conducted in- country by UNAIDS. RESULTS: Over a fifteen-year period, circumcising males ages 10-29 would avert 75% of HIV infections, and circumcising males ages 10-34 would avert 88% of infections, compared to the current strategy of circumcising males ages 15-49. The Ministry of Health's South West and South East health zones had the lowest cost per HIV infection averted. Moreover, VMMC met WHO's definition of cost-effectiveness (that is, the cost per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] saved was less than three times the per capita gross domestic product) in all health zones except Central East. Comparing urban versus rural areas in the country, we found that circumcising men in urban areas would be both cost-effective and cost-saving, with a VMMC cost per DALY saved of $120 USD and with 15 years of VMMC implementation resulting in lifetime HIV treatment costs savings of $331 million USD. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the age analyses and programmatic experience, Malawi's VMMC operational plan focuses on males ages 10-34 in all districts in the South East and South West zones, as well as Lilongwe (an urban district in the Central zone). This plan covers 14 of the 28 districts in the country.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Swaziland: Modeling the Impact of Age Targeting.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention has been a priority for Swaziland since 2009. Initially focusing on men ages 15-49, the Ministry of Health reduced the minimum age for VMMC from 15 to 10 years in 2012, given the existing demand among 10- to 15-year-olds. To understand the implications of focusing VMMC service delivery on specific age groups, the MOH undertook a modeling exercise to inform policy and implementation in 2013-2014. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The impact and cost of circumcising specific age groups were assessed using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), a simple compartmental model. We used age-specific HIV incidence from the Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS). Population, mortality, births, and HIV prevalence were imported from a national Spectrum/Goals model recently updated in consultation with country stakeholders. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the most recent Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey. The lowest numbers of VMMCs per HIV infection averted are achieved when males ages 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 are circumcised, although the uncertainty bounds for the estimates overlap. Circumcising males ages 25-29 and 20-24 provides the most immediate reduction in HIV incidence. Circumcising males ages 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 provides the greatest magnitude incidence reduction within 15 years. The lowest cost per HIV infection averted is achieved by circumcising males ages 15-34: $870 U.S. dollars (USD). CONCLUSIONS: The potential impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up in Swaziland are not uniform. They vary by the age group of males circumcised. Based on the results of this modeling exercise, the Ministry of Health's Swaziland Male Circumcision Strategic and Operational Plan 2014-2018 adopted an implementation strategy that calls for circumcision to be scaled up to 50% coverage for neonates, 80% among males ages 10-29, and 55% among males ages 30-34.

Age Targeting of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs Using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0.

BACKGROUND: Despite considerable efforts to scale up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention in priority countries over the last five years, implementation has faced important challenges. Seeking to enhance the effect of VMMC programs for greatest and most immediate impact, the U. S. President's Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) supported the development and application of a model to inform national planning in five countries from 2013-2014. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2.0 is a simple compartmental model designed to analyze the effects of client age and geography on program impact and cost. The DMPPT 2.0 model was applied in Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, and Uganda to assess the impact and cost of scaling up age-targeted VMMC coverage. The lowest number of VMMCs per HIV infection averted would be produced by circumcising males ages 20-34 in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda and males ages 15-34 in Swaziland. The most immediate impact on HIV incidence would be generated by circumcising males ages 20-34 in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda and males ages 20-29 in Swaziland. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence over a 15-year period would be achieved by strategies focused on males ages 10-19 in Uganda, 15-24 in Malawi and South Africa, 10-24 in Tanzania, and 15-29 in Swaziland. In all countries, the lowest cost per HIV infection averted would be achieved by circumcising males ages 15-34, although in Uganda this cost is the same as that attained by circumcising 15- to 49-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: The efficiency, immediacy of impact, magnitude of impact, and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up are not uniform; there is important variation by age group of the males circumcised and countries should plan accordingly.

Investigating Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program Efficiency Gains through Subpopulation Prioritization: Insights from Application to Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15-49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD $1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20-24 age-group) to 36 (45-49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from $888 (20-24 age-group) to $3,300 (45-49 age-group). Circumcising 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9-12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs. CONCLUSION: Epidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.

What should be the basis for compulsory and optional health insurance premiums? Opinions of Swiss doctors.

PRINCIPLES: Little is known about doctors' opinions on how to finance health services. In Switzerland, mandatory basic health insurance currently uses regional flat fees that are unrelated to health and ability to pay, and optional complementary insurance uses risk-based premiums. Our objective was to assess Swiss physicians' opinions on what should determine health insurance premiums. METHODS: We surveyed doctors in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, about the desirable funding mechanism for mandatory health insurance and complementary health insurance. The proposed determinants of insurance premiums were current health and past medical history, lifestyle, healthcare costs in the previous year, genetic susceptibility to disease, regional average healthcare costs, household income, and wealth and demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among the 1,516 respondents, only a few (<5%) believed that the mandatory health insurance premium should depend on health risk (health status, previous costs, genetics, and age and sex). More than 30% of respondents supported premiums based on lifestyle (34.6%), regional average health expenditures (31.2%), and household income and wealth (39.6%). For complementary health insurance, most respondents supported premiums based on lifestyle (74.6%) and on health risk (46.4%), but surprisingly also on household income and wealth (44.9%) and regional average health expenditures (39.4%). The characteristic most influencing the answers was the medical specialty. CONCLUSION: Doctors' opinions about healthcare financing mechanisms varied considerably, for both mandatory and complementary health insurance. Lifestyle was a surprisingly frequent choice, even though this criterion is not currently used in Switzerland. Ability to pay was not supported by the majority.

Voluntary medical male circumcision - southern and eastern Africa, 2010-2012.

Sub-Saharan Africa bears the greatest global burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; 70% (25.0 million) of all persons living with HIV reside in this region. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to reduce the risk for heterosexually acquired HIV among men by approximately 60% in three randomized controlled trials. Further studies found that the protection from HIV acquisition conferred by VMMC was sustained for 6 years following surgery. In 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended that 14 countries with generalized HIV epidemics (i.e., where >1% of the population is HIV-positive) and low male circumcision prevalence prioritize scale-up of VMMC for HIV prevention. On December 1, 2011 (World AIDS Day), funding through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) was announced to support >4.7 million VMMCs over the next 2 years. This report presents the results of VMMC scale-up in nine countries where national ministries of health and CDC are implementing VMMC services for HIV prevention: Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. During October 2009-September 2012, a total of 1,924,792 VMMCs were performed in 14 countries using PEPFAR funding provided through U.S. government agencies; of this total, 1,020,424 were conducted at approximately 1,600 CDC-supported VMMC sites: 137,096 VMMCs in 2010, 347,724 in 2011, and 535,604 in 2012. Continued program monitoring and quality assurance activities are required to ensure that CDC-supported country programs meet World AIDS Day targets for VMMC.