Comparison of performances of SIREN or MFSRS in stroke risk prediction in an African environment.

BACKGROUND: The Modified Framingham Stroke Risk Score (MFSRS) is a widely utilized stroke risk assessment algorithm usually applied in international comparison. The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is the only known African-specific stroke risk assessment algorithm. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To compare stroke risk estimates from the SIREN and the MFSRS in an African community. METHODS: This was a population-based cross-sectional survey involving consecutively recruited 310 consenting adult residents (mean age = 37.21 ± 15.84 years) of a Nigerian community. Risk factors of stroke were assessed among the participants and were utilized in calculating stroke risk estimates on the MFSRS and the SIREN. The obtained data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Spearman-rank order correlation test at an alpha level of 0.05. RESULTS: The percentage stroke risk scores estimated by the SIREN and the MFSRS were 34.5% and 6.79% respectively. The most prevalent risk factors among the participants were hypertriglyceridemia (100.0%), raised waist-hip ratio (50.6%), hypercholesterolemia (45.5), physical inactivity (43.2%), psychological stress (41.3%), and hypertension (37.7%). Only two (hypertriglyceridemia and high blood pressure) out of the six factors considered in the MFSRS were rated among the first 10 most impactful risks by the SIREN. There was a weak correlation between the total scores on the MFSRS and the SIREN (rho = 0.39; p < 0.01) suggesting that the two ratings were discordant. CONCLUSION: There were disagreements between the risk estimates on the SIREN and MFSRS with SIREN having a higher estimate that corresponded with the literature; this may be suggesting a poorer estimation of stroke risks by the MFSRS in an African environment. There is a need for large African-based quality control studies to determine and address these lapses.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of integrated case management of Neglected Tropical Diseases in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, Liberia became one of the first countries in the African region to develop and implement a national strategy for integrated case management of Neglected Tropical Diseases (CM-NTDs), specifically Buruli ulcer, leprosy, lymphatic filariasis morbidities, and yaws. Implementing this plan moves the NTD program from many countries' fragmented (vertical) disease management. This study explores to what extent an integrated approach offers a cost-effective investment for national health systems. METHODS: This study is a mixed-method economic evaluation that explores the cost-effectiveness of the integrated CM-NTDs approach compared to the fragmented (vertical) disease management. Primary data were collected from two integrated intervention counties and two non-intervention counties to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of the integrated program model vs. fragmented (vertical) care. Data was sourced from the NTDs program annual budgets and financial reports for integrated CM-NTDs and Mass Drug Administration (MDA) to determine cost drivers and effectiveness. RESULTS: The total cost incurred by the integrated CM-NTD approach from 2017 to 2019 was US$ 789,856.30, with the highest percentage of costs for program staffing and motivation (41.8%), followed by operating costs (24.8%). In the two counties implementing fragmented (vertical) disease management, approximately US$ 325,000 was spent on the diagnosis of 84 persons and the treatment of twenty-four persons suffering from NTDs. While 2.5 times as much was spent in integrated counties, 9-10 times more patients were diagnosed and treated. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of a patient being diagnosed under the fragmented (vertical) implementation is five times higher than integrated CM-NTDs, and providing treatment is ten times as costly. Findings indicate that the integrated CM-NTDs strategy has achieved its primary objective of improved access to NTD services. The success of implementing an integrated CM-NTDs approach in Liberia, presented in this paper, demonstrates that NTD integration is a cost-minimizing solution.