Spatial distribution of arboviruses and its association with a social development index and the waste disposal in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2015 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To detect spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of urban arboviruses and to investigate whether the social development index (SDI) and irregular waste disposal are related to the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil. METHODS: The confirmed cases of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in São Luís, from 2015 to 2019, were georeferenced to the census tract of residence. The Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive regression model was used to identify the association between SDI and irregular waste disposal sites and the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection. RESULTS: The spatial pattern of arboviruses pointed to the predominance of a low-incidence cluster, except 2016. For the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019, an increase of one unit of waste disposal site increased the coefficient of arboviruses detection in 1.25, 1.09, 1.23, and 1.13 cases of arboviruses per 100 thousand inhabitants, respectively. The SDI was not associated with the coefficient of arboviruses detection. CONCLUSION: In São Luís, spatiotemporal risk clusters for the occurrence of arboviruses and a positive association between the coefficient of arbovirus detection and sites of irregular waste disposal were identified.

Bayesian network analysis of factors influencing type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and their comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE: Bayesian network (BN) models were developed to explore the specific relationships between influencing factors and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary heart disease (CAD), and their comorbidities. The aim was to predict disease occurrence and diagnose etiology using these models, thereby informing the development of effective prevention and control strategies for T2DM, CAD, and their comorbidities. METHOD: Employing a case-control design, the study compared individuals with T2DM, CAD, and their comorbidities (case group) with healthy counterparts (control group). Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify disease-influencing factors. The BN structure was learned using the Tabu search algorithm, with parameter estimation achieved through maximum likelihood estimation. The predictive performance of the BN model was assessed using the confusion matrix, and Netica software was utilized for visual prediction and diagnosis. RESULT: The study involved 3,824 participants, including 1,175 controls, 1,163 T2DM cases, 982 CAD cases, and 504 comorbidity cases. The BN model unveiled factors directly and indirectly impacting T2DM, such as age, region, education level, and family history (FH). Variables like exercise, LDL-C, TC, fruit, and sweet food intake exhibited direct effects, while smoking, alcohol consumption, occupation, heart rate, HDL-C, meat, and staple food intake had indirect effects. Similarly, for CAD, factors with direct and indirect effects included age, smoking, SBP, exercise, meat, and fruit intake, while sleeping time and heart rate showed direct effects. Regarding T2DM and CAD comorbidities, age, FBG, SBP, fruit, and sweet intake demonstrated both direct and indirect effects, whereas exercise and HDL-C exhibited direct effects, and region, education level, DBP, and TC showed indirect effects. CONCLUSION: The BN model constructed using the Tabu search algorithm showcased robust predictive performance, reliability, and applicability in forecasting disease probabilities for T2DM, CAD, and their comorbidities. These findings offer valuable insights for enhancing prevention and control strategies and exploring the application of BN in predicting and diagnosing chronic diseases.

Interpretable (not just posthoc-explainable) medical claims modeling for discharge placement to reduce preventable all-cause readmissions or death.

We developed an inherently interpretable multilevel Bayesian framework for representing variation in regression coefficients that mimics the piecewise linearity of ReLU-activated deep neural networks. We used the framework to formulate a survival model for using medical claims to predict hospital readmission and death that focuses on discharge placement, adjusting for confounding in estimating causal local average treatment effects. We trained the model on a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 and 2011, based on their 2009-2011 inpatient episodes (approximately 1.2 million), and then tested the model on 2012 episodes (approximately 400 thousand). The model scored an out-of-sample AUROC of approximately 0.75 on predicting all-cause readmissions-defined using official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology-or death within 30-days of discharge, being competitive against XGBoost and a Bayesian deep neural network, demonstrating that one need-not sacrifice interpretability for accuracy. Crucially, as a regression model, it provides what blackboxes cannot-its exact gold-standard global interpretation, explicitly defining how the model performs its internal "reasoning" for mapping the input data features to predictions. In doing so, we identify relative risk factors and quantify the effect of discharge placement. We also show that the posthoc explainer SHAP provides explanations that are inconsistent with the ground truth model reasoning that our model readily admits.

Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology.

BACKGROUND: Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Variations and trade-offs in leaf and culm functional traits among 77 woody bamboo species.

BACKGROUND: Woody bamboos are the only diverse large perennial grasses in mesic-wet forests and are widely distributed in the understory and canopy. The functional trait variations and trade-offs in this taxon remain unclear due to woody bamboo syndromes (represented by lignified culm of composed internodes and nodes). Here, we examined the effects of heritable legacy and occurrence site climates on functional trait variations in leaf and culm across 77 woody bamboo species in a common garden. We explored the trade-offs among leaf functional traits, the connection between leaf nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) concentrations and functional niche traits, and the correlation of functional traits between leaves and culms. RESULTS: The Bayesian mixed models reveal that the combined effects of heritable legacy (phylogenetic distances and other evolutionary processes) and occurrence site climates accounted for 55.10-90.89% of the total variation among species for each studied trait. The standardized major axis analysis identified trade-offs among leaf functional traits in woody bamboo consistent with the global leaf economics spectrum; however, compared to non-bamboo species, the woody bamboo exhibited lower leaf mass per area but higher N, P concentrations and assimilation, dark respiration rates. The canonical correlation analysis demonstrated a positive correlation (ρ = 0.57, P-value < 0.001) between leaf N, P concentrations and morphophysiology traits. The phylogenetic principal components and trait network analyses indicated that leaf and culm traits were clustered separately, with leaf assimilation and respiration rates associated with culm ground diameter. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms the applicability of the leaf economics spectrum and the biogeochemical niche in woody bamboo taxa, improves the understanding of woody bamboo leaf and culm functional trait variations and trade-offs, and broadens the taxonomic units considered in plant functional trait studies, which contributes to our comprehensive understanding of terrestrial forest ecosystems.

Spatial-temporal transmission dynamics of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in Indonesia.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) remains a serious health threat in Indonesia. In particular, the CRF01_AE viruses were the predominant HIV-1 strains in various cities in Indonesia. However, information on the dynamic transmission characteristics and spatial-temporal transmission of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in Indonesia is limited. Therefore, the present study examined the spatial-temporal transmission networks and evolutionary characteristics of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in Indonesia. To clarify the epidemiological connection between CRF01_AE outbreaks in Indonesia and the rest of the world, we performed phylogenetic studies on nearly full genomes of CRF01_AE viruses isolated in Indonesia. Our results showed that five epidemic clades, namely, IDN clades 1-5, of CRF01_AE were found in Indonesia. To determine the potential source and mode of transmission of CRF01_AE, we performed Bayesian analysis and built maximum clade credibility trees for each clade. Our study revealed that CRF01_AE viruses were commonly introduced into Indonesia from Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand. The CRF01_AE viruses might have spread through major pandemics in Asian countries, such as China, Vietnam, and Laos, rather than being introduced directly from Africa in the early 1980s. This study has major implications for public health practice and policy development in Indonesia. The contributions of this study include understanding the dynamics of HIV-1 transmission that is important for the implementation of HIV disease control and prevention strategies in Indonesia.

Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010-2019.

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.

Sorption Behavior of Azo Dye Congo Red onto Activated Biochar from Haematoxylum campechianum Waste: Gradient Boosting Machine Learning-Assisted Bayesian Optimization for Improved Adsorption Process.

This work aimed to describe the adsorption behavior of Congo red (CR) onto activated biochar material prepared from Haematoxylum campechianum waste (ABHC). The carbon precursor was soaked with phosphoric acid, followed by pyrolysis to convert the precursor into activated biochar. The surface morphology of the adsorbent (before and after dye adsorption) was characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM/EDS), BET method, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and, lastly, pHpzc was also determined. Batch studies were carried out in the following intervals of pH = 4-10, temperature = 300.15-330.15 K, the dose of adsorbent = 1-10 g/L, and isotherms evaluated the adsorption process to determine the maximum adsorption capacity (Qmax, mg/g). Kinetic studies were performed starting from two different initial concentrations (25 and 50 mg/L) and at a maximum contact time of 48 h. The reusability potential of activated biochar was evaluated by adsorption-desorption cycles. The maximum adsorption capacity obtained with the Langmuir adsorption isotherm model was 114.8 mg/g at 300.15 K, pH = 5.4, and a dose of activated biochar of 1.0 g/L. This study also highlights the application of advanced machine learning techniques to optimize a chemical removal process. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset, a Gradient Boosting regression model was developed and fine-tuned using Bayesian optimization within a Python programming environment. The optimization algorithm efficiently navigated the input space to maximize the removal percentage, resulting in a predicted efficiency of approximately 90.47% under optimal conditions. These findings offer promising insights for enhancing efficiency in similar removal processes, showcasing the potential of machine learning in process optimization and environmental remediation.

A fully autonomous robotic ultrasound system for thyroid scanning.

The current thyroid ultrasound relies heavily on the experience and skills of the sonographer and the expertise of the radiologist, and the process is physically and cognitively exhausting. In this paper, we report a fully autonomous robotic ultrasound system, which is able to scan thyroid regions without human assistance and identify malignant nod- ules. In this system, human skeleton point recognition, reinforcement learning, and force feedback are used to deal with the difficulties in locating thyroid targets. The orientation of the ultrasound probe is adjusted dynamically via Bayesian optimization. Experimental results on human participants demonstrated that this system can perform high-quality ultrasound scans, close to manual scans obtained by clinicians. Additionally, it has the potential to detect thyroid nodules and provide data on nodule characteristics for American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (ACR TI-RADS) calculation.

Experimental Evaluation of a Direct Fitness Effect of the De Novo Evolved Mouse Gene Pldi.

De novo evolved genes emerge from random parts of noncoding sequences and have, therefore, no homologs from which a function could be inferred. While expression analysis and knockout experiments can provide insights into the function, they do not directly test whether the gene is beneficial for its carrier. Here, we have used a seminatural environment experiment to test the fitness of the previously identified de novo evolved mouse gene Pldi, which has been implicated to have a role in sperm differentiation. We used a knockout mouse strain for this gene and competed it against its parental wildtype strain for several generations of free reproduction. We found that the knockout (ko) allele frequency decreased consistently across three replicates of the experiment. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework that simulated the data under a demographic scenario mimicking the experiment's demography, we could estimate a selection coefficient ranging between 0.21 and 0.61 for the wildtype allele compared to the ko allele in males, under various models. This implies a relatively strong selective advantage, which would fix the new gene in less than hundred generations after its emergence.

Reviving Bistable Perception in Patients With Depression by Decreasing the Overestimation of Prior Precision.

Slower perceptual alternations, a notable perceptual effect observed in psychiatric disorders, can be alleviated by antidepressant therapies that affect serotonin levels in the brain. While these phenomena have been well documented, the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Our study bridges this gap by employing a computational cognitive approach within a Bayesian predictive coding framework to explore these mechanisms in depression. We fitted a prediction error (PE) model to behavioral data from a binocular rivalry task, uncovering that significantly higher initial prior precision and lower PE led to a slower switch rate in patients with depression. Furthermore, serotonin-targeting antidepressant treatments significantly decreased the prior precision and increased PE, both of which were predictive of improvements in the perceptual alternation rate of depression patients. These findings indicated that the substantially slower perception switch rate in patients with depression was caused by the greater reliance on top-down priors and that serotonin treatment's efficacy was in its recalibration of these priors and enhancement of PE. Our study not only elucidates the cognitive underpinnings of depression, but also suggests computational modeling as a potent tool for integrating cognitive science with clinical psychology, advancing our understanding and treatment of cognitive impairments in depression.

New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model.

BACKGROUND: In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China. METHODS: A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435-10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027-11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337-13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165-8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524-5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239-0.894). CONCLUSIONS: Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

Institutional complexity emerges from socioecological complexity in small-scale human societies.

Human lifestyles vary enormously over time and space and so understanding the origins of this diversity has always been a central focus of anthropology. A major source of this cultural variation is the variation in institutional complexity: the cultural packages of rules, norms, ontologies and expectations passed down through societies across generations. In this article, we study the emergence of institutions in small-scale societies. There are two primary schools of thought. The first is that institutions emerge top-down as rules are imposed by elites on their societies in order to gain asymmetrical access to power, resources and influence over others through coercion. The second is that institutions emerge bottom-up to facilitate interactions within populations as they seek collective solutions to adaptive problems. Here, we use Bayesian networks to infer the causal structure of institutional complexity in 172 small-scale societies across ethnohistoric western North America reflecting the wide diversity of indigenous lifestyles across this vast region immediately prior to European colonization. Our results suggest that institutional complexity emerges from underlying socioecological complexity because institutions are solutions to coordination problems in more complex environments where human-environment interactions require increased management.

Equivalence of variance components between standard and recursive genetic models using LDL' transformations.

BACKGROUND: Recursive models are a category of structural equation models that propose a causal relationship between traits. These models are more parameterized than multiple trait models, and they require imposing restrictions on the parameter space to ensure statistical identification. Nevertheless, in certain situations, the likelihood of recursive models and multiple trait models are equivalent. Consequently, the estimates of variance components derived from the multiple trait mixed model can be converted into estimates under several recursive models through LDL' or block-LDL' transformations. RESULTS: The procedure was employed on a dataset comprising five traits (birth weight-BW, weight at 90 days-W90, weight at 210 days-W210, cold carcass weight-CCW and conformation-CON) from the Pirenaica beef cattle breed. These phenotypic records were unequally distributed among 149,029 individuals and had a high percentage of missing data. The pedigree used consisted of 343,753 individuals. A Bayesian approach involving a multiple-trait mixed model was applied using a Gibbs sampler. The variance components obtained at each iteration of the Gibbs sampler were subsequently used to estimate the variance components within three distinct recursive models. CONCLUSIONS: The LDL' or block-LDL' transformations applied to the variance component estimates achieved from a multiple trait mixed model enabled inference across multiple sets of recursive models, with the sole prerequisite of being likelihood equivalent. Furthermore, the aforementioned transformations simplify the handling of missing data when conducting inference within the realm of recursive models.

Reverse engineering morphogenesis through Bayesian optimization of physics-based models.

Morphogenetic programs coordinate cell signaling and mechanical interactions to shape organs. In systems and synthetic biology, a key challenge is determining optimal cellular interactions for predicting organ shape, size, and function. Physics-based models defining the subcellular force distribution facilitate this, but it is challenging to calibrate parameters in these models from data. To solve this inverse problem, we created a Bayesian optimization framework to determine the optimal cellular force distribution such that the predicted organ shapes match the experimentally observed organ shapes. This integrative framework employs Gaussian Process Regression, a non-parametric kernel-based probabilistic machine learning modeling paradigm, to learn the mapping functions relating to the morphogenetic programs that maintain the final organ shape. We calibrated and tested the method on Drosophila wing imaginal discs to study mechanisms that regulate epithelial processes ranging from development to cancer. The parameter estimation framework successfully infers the underlying changes in core parameters needed to match simulation data with imaging data of wing discs perturbed with collagenase. The computational pipeline identifies distinct parameter sets mimicking wild-type shapes. It enables a global sensitivity analysis to support the regulation of actomyosin contractility and basal ECM stiffness to generate and maintain the curved shape of the wing imaginal disc. The optimization framework, combined with experimental imaging, identified that Piezo, a mechanosensitive ion channel, impacts fold formation by regulating the apical-basal balance of actomyosin contractility and elasticity of ECM. This workflow is extensible toward reverse-engineering morphogenesis across organ systems and for real-time control of complex multicellular systems.

Spatial analysis of cholangiocarcinoma in relation to diabetes mellitus and Opisthorchis viverrini infection in Northeast Thailand.

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) exhibits a heightened incidence in regions with a high prevalence of Opisthorchis viverrini infection, with previous studies suggesting an association with diabetes mellitus (DM). Our study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of CCA in relation to O. viverrini infection and DM within high-risk populations in Northeast Thailand. Participants from 20 provinces underwent CCA screening through the Cholangiocarcinoma Screening and Care Program between 2013 and 2019. Health questionnaires collected data on O. viverrini infection and DM, while ultrasonography confirmed CCA diagnoses through histopathology. Multiple zero-inflated Poisson regression, accounting for covariates like age and gender, assessed associations of O. viverrini infection and DM with CCA. Bayesian spatial analysis methods explored spatial relationships. Among 263,588 participants, O. viverrini infection, DM, and CCA prevalence were 32.37%, 8.22%, and 0.36%, respectively. The raw standardized morbidity ratios for CCA was notably elevated in the Northeast's lower and upper regions. Coexistence of O. viverrini infection and DM correlated with CCA, particularly in males and those aged over 60 years, with a distribution along the Chi, Mun, and Songkhram Rivers. Our findings emphasize the association of the spatial distribution of O. viverrini infection and DM with high-risk CCA areas in Northeast Thailand. Thus, prioritizing CCA screening in regions with elevated O. viverrini infection and DM prevalence is recommended.

Using Bayesian statistics in confirmatory clinical trials in the regulatory setting: a tutorial review.

Bayesian statistics plays a pivotal role in advancing medical science by enabling healthcare companies, regulators, and stakeholders to assess the safety and efficacy of new treatments, interventions, and medical procedures. The Bayesian framework offers a unique advantage over the classical framework, especially when incorporating prior information into a new trial with quality external data, such as historical data or another source of co-data. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in regulatory submissions using Bayesian statistics due to its flexibility and ability to provide valuable insights for decision-making, addressing the modern complexity of clinical trials where frequentist trials are inadequate. For regulatory submissions, companies often need to consider the frequentist operating characteristics of the Bayesian analysis strategy, regardless of the design complexity. In particular, the focus is on the frequentist type I error rate and power for all realistic alternatives. This tutorial review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the use of Bayesian statistics in sample size determination, control of type I error rate, multiplicity adjustments, external data borrowing, etc., in the regulatory environment of clinical trials. Fundamental concepts of Bayesian sample size determination and illustrative examples are provided to serve as a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, and statisticians seeking to develop more complex and innovative designs.

Why does the number of antenatal care visits in Ethiopia remain low?: A Bayesian multilevel approach.

INTRODUCTION: Antenatal care (ANC) visit is a proxy for maternal and neonatal health. The ANC is a key indicator of access and utilization of health care for pregnant women. Recently, eight times ANC visits have been recommended during the pregnancy period. However, nearly 57% of women received less than four ANC visits in Ethiopia. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify factors associated withthe number of ANC visits in Ethiopia. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from March 21 to June 28/2019. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires from reproductive age groups. A stratified cluster sampling was used to select enumeration areas, households, and women from selected households. A Bayesian multilevel negative binomial model was applied for the analysis of this study. There is an intra-class correlation (ICC) = 23.42% and 25.51% for the null and final model, respectively. Data were analyzed using the STATA version 17.0. The adjusted incidence risk ratio (IRR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI) was used to declare the association. RESULT: A total of 3915 pregnant women were included in this study. The mean(SD) age of the participants was 28.7 (.11) years. Nearly one-fourth (26.5%) of pregnant women did not have ANC visits, and 3% had eight-time ANC visits in Ethiopia. In the adjusted model, the age of the women 25-28 years (IRR:1.13; 95% CrI: 1.11, 1.16), 29-33 years (IRR: 1.15; 95% CrI: 1.15, 1.16), ≥34 years (IRR:1.14; 95% CrI: 1.12, 1.17), being a primary school (IRR: 1.22, 95% CrI: 1.21, 1.22), secondary school and above (IRR: 1.26, 95% CrI: 1.26, 1.26), delivered in health facility (IRR: 1.93; 95% CrI: 1.92, 1.93), delivered with cesarian section (IRR: 1.18; 95% CrI: 1.18, 1.19), multiple (twin) pregnancy (IRR: 1.11; 95% CrI: 1.10, 1.12), richest (IRR:1.23; 95% CrI: 1.23, 1.24), rich family (IRR: 1.34, 95% CrI: 1.30, 1.37), middle income (IRR: 1.29, 95% CrI: 1.28, 1.31), and poor family (IRR = 1.28, 95% CrI:1.28, 1.29) were shown to have significant association with higher number of ANC vists, while, households with total family size of ≥ 5 (IRR: 0.92; 95% CrI: 0.91, 0.92), and being a rural resident (IRR: 0.92, 95% CrI: 0.92, 0.94) were shown to have a significant association with the lower number of ANC visits. CONCLUSION: Overall, 26.5% of pregnant women do not have ANC visits during their pregnancy, and 3% of women have eight-time ANC visits. This result is much lower as compared to WHO's recommendation, which states that all pregnant women should have at least eight ANC visits. In this study, the ages of the women 25-28, 29-33, and ≥34 years, being a primary school, secondary school, and above, delivered in a health facility, delivered with caesarian section, multiple pregnancies, rich, middle and poor wealth index, were significantly associated with the higher number of ANC visits, while households with large family size and rural residence were significantly associated with a lower number of ANC visits in Ethiopia.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England.

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.

Adverse events associated with immune checkpoint inhibitors in non-small cell lung cancer: a safety analysis of clinical trials and FDA pharmacovigilance system.

Objectives: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, the application of ICIs can also cause treatment-related adverse events (trAEs) and immune-related adverse events (irAEs). This study was to evaluate both the irAEs and trAEs of different ICI strategies for NSCLC based on randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The study also examined real-world pharmacovigilance data from the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) regarding claimed ICI-associated AEs in clinical practice. Methods: Based on Pubmed, Embase, Medline, and the Cochrane CENTRAL, we retrieved RCTs comparing ICIs with chemotherapy drugs or with different ICI regimens for the treatment of NSCLC up to October 20, 2023. Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed using odds ratios (ORs) with 95% credible intervals (95%CrI). Separately, a retrospective pharmacovigilance study was performed based on FAERS database, extracting ICI-associated AEs in NSCLC patients between the first quarter (Q1) of 2004 and Q4 of 2023. The proportional reports reporting odds ratio was calculated to analyze the disproportionality. Results: The NMA included 51 RCTs that involved a total of 26,958 patients with NSCLC. Based on the lowest risk of any trAEs, cemiplimab, tislelizumab, and durvalumab were ranked as the best. Among the agents associated with the lowest risk of grades 3-5 trAEs, tislelizumab, avelumab, and nivolumab were most likely to rank highest. As far as any or grades 3-5 irAEs are concerned, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab plus chemotherapy is considered the most safety option. However, it is associated with a high risk of grades 3-5 trAEs. As a result of FAERS pharmacovigilance data analysis, 9,420 AEs cases have been identified in 7,339 NSCLC patients treated with ICIs, and ICIs were related to statistically significant positive signal with 311 preferred terms (PTs), and comprehensively investigated and identified those AEs highly associated with ICIs. In total, 152 significant signals were associated with Nivolumab, with malignant neoplasm progression, death, and hypothyroidism being the most frequent PTs. Conclusion: These findings revealed that ICIs differed in their safety profile. ICI treatment strategies can be improved and preventive methods can be developed for NSCLC patients based on our results.