Fuel shortages during hurricanes: Epidemiological modeling and optimal control.

Hurricanes are powerful agents of destruction with significant socioeconomic impacts. A persistent problem due to the large-scale evacuations during hurricanes in the southeastern United States is the fuel shortages during the evacuation. Computational models can aid in emergency preparedness and help mitigate the impacts of hurricanes. In this paper, we model the hurricane fuel shortages using the SIR epidemic model. We utilize the crowd-sourced data corresponding to Hurricane Irma and Florence to parametrize the model. An estimation technique based on Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is employed to evaluate the SIR dynamic parameters. Finally, an optimal control approach for refueling based on a vaccination analogue is presented to effectively reduce the fuel shortages under a resource constraint. We find the basic reproduction number corresponding to fuel shortages in Miami during Hurricane Irma to be 3.98. Using the control model we estimated the level of intervention needed to mitigate the fuel-shortage epidemic. For example, our results indicate that for Naples- Fort Myers affected by Hurricane Irma, a per capita refueling rate of 0.1 for 2.2 days would have reduced the peak fuel shortage from 55% to 48% and a refueling rate of 0.75 for half a day before landfall would have reduced to 37%.

Coastal wetlands reduce property damage during tropical cyclones.

Coastal wetlands dampen the impact of storm surge and strong winds. Studies on the economic valuation of this protective service provided by wetland ecosystems are, however, rare. Here, we analyze property damage caused by 88 tropical storms and hurricanes hitting the United States between 1996 and 2016 and show that counties with more wetland coverage experienced significantly less property damage. The expected economic value of the protective effects of wetlands varies widely across coastal US counties with an average value of about $1.8 million/km2 per year and a median value of $91,000/km2 Wetlands confer relatively more protection against weaker storms and in states with weaker building codes. Recent wetland losses are estimated to have increased property damage from Hurricane Irma by $430 million. Our results suggest the importance of considering both natural and human factors in coastal zone defense policy.

A Philanthropic Approach to Supporting Emergent Disaster Response and Recovery.

In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey struck the US Gulf Coast and caused more than US $125 billion in damages in Texas. The loss of lives and the economic damages resulted in an outpouring of support for the recovery efforts in the form of federal assistance and private donations. The latter has supported more creative approaches to recovery. Organizations that normally would not receive funding were able to obtain resources to use in novel manners. Using the framework of Dynes typology to identify groups and their respective structures and tasks, this report from the field analyzes Hurricane Harvey and the financial support mechanisms used to support recovery efforts in Texas, what organizations were funded to do, and where they fit into Dynes typology. The authors close by noting the importance of these emerging organizations and the need to support diversity in funding disaster response and recovery efforts beyond large nonprofit organizations.

Qualitative Assessment of Environmental Health Risk Perceptions and Community Challenges in a Puerto Rican Community: Change and Continuity in Response to Hurricanes Irma and María.

Culebra, a geographically isolated island located 17 miles from the eastern coast of Puerto Rico's main island, suffers from an amalgam of significant environmental health risk and associated social determinants of health that are affecting the community. In 2017, two major Hurricanes (Irma and María) impacted Culebra, resulting in an increase of preexisting environmental health risk. The present study's primary aim was to explore community attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions of environmental health risk, and to describe the social priorities of Culebrenses in relation to these risks and challenges. Semi-structured interview guide and Rapid Qualitative Inquiry (RQI) focused on topics of environmental health risk was followed. Qualitative focus groups and individual interviews were conducted among community members in Culebra before and shortly after Hurricanes Irma and María affected the island. Environmental health factors identified included: presence of mosquitoes, trash disposal, water quality and tourism. Additionally, a strong sentiment of island pride was found potentially generating a sense of community that could facilitate solutions to the existing environmental health challenges. Preexisting environmental health risk magnified after the pass of Hurricanes Irma and María. Sustainable and community engagement approaches are needed to develop strategies that can assist in the mitigation and resolution of the identified environmental health risk and challenges, including factors associated with threats such as disasters and pollution.

Mangroves protect coastal economic activity from hurricanes.

This paper evaluates whether mangroves can mitigate the impact of hurricanes on economic activity. The paper assembles a regionwide panel dataset that measures local economic activity using nightlights, potential hurricane damages using a detailed wind field model, and mangrove protection by mapping the width of mangrove forests on the path to the coast. The results show that hurricanes have negative short-run effects on economic activity, with losses likely concentrated in coastal lowlands that are exposed to both wind and storm surge hazards. In these coastal lowlands, the estimates show that nightlights decrease by up to 24% in areas that are unprotected by mangroves. By comparison, the impact of the hurricanes observed in the sample is fully mitigated in areas protected by mangrove belts of 1 km or more.

Livelihoods, precarity, and disaster vulnerability: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch.

How livelihoods determine vulnerability to disasters is a recent topic of inquiry. Few quantitative works have been produced to date. The empirical analysis that follows draws on household-level data available for Nicaragua, preceding and following Hurricane Mitch, a devastating Category 5 storm that made landfall in Central America in October 1998, to examine differentials in disaster recovery outcomes vis-à-vis household livelihood profiles. Livelihoods are distinguished according to economic sector along with ownership of productive means, a central mechanism of vulnerability under sociological labour frameworks. The findings indicate uneven recovery outcomes in relation to livelihoods. During the year immediately following the event, agricultural wage earners and agricultural owner-producers experienced marked losses owing to the disaster, whereas business owners saw an improvement in condition. Analysis of long-term recovery reveals that households reliant on agricultural wage employment exhibit lagged recovery relative to other livelihood profiles. The findings are discussed with respect to the dynamic pressures posed by contemporary developmental processes.

Social media usage patterns during natural hazards.

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly expensive as climate change and development are exposing communities to greater risks. Preparation and recovery are critical for climate change resilience, and social media are being used more and more to communicate before, during, and after disasters. While there is a growing body of research aimed at understanding how people use social media surrounding disaster events, most existing work has focused on a single disaster case study. In the present study, we analyze five of the costliest disasters in the last decade in the United States (Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, two sets of tornado outbreaks, and flooding in Louisiana) through the lens of Twitter. In particular, we explore the frequency of both generic and specific food-security related terms, and quantify the relationship between network size and Twitter activity during disasters. We find differences in tweet volume for keywords depending on disaster type, with people using Twitter more frequently in preparation for Hurricanes, and for real-time or recovery information for tornado and flooding events. Further, we find that people share a host of general disaster and specific preparation and recovery terms during these events. Finally, we find that among all account types, individuals with "average" sized networks are most likely to share information during these disasters, and in most cases, do so more frequently than normal. This suggests that around disasters, an ideal form of social contagion is being engaged in which average people rather than outsized influentials are key to communication. These results provide important context for the type of disaster information and target audiences that may be most useful for disaster communication during varying extreme events.

Hurricane Harvey: The Way Back.

Lessons learned as practices emerge from Harvey's wrath.

Application of a Theoretical Model Toward Understanding Continued Food Insecurity Post Hurricane Katrina.

OBJECTIVE: Disaster recovery efforts focus on restoring basic needs to survivors, such as food, water, and shelter. However, long after the immediate recovery phase is over, some individuals will continue to experience unmet needs. Ongoing food insecurity has been identified as a post-disaster problem. There is a paucity of information regarding the factors that might place an individual at risk for continued food insecurity post disaster. METHODS: Using data from a sample (n=737) of households severely impacted by Hurricane Katrina, we estimated the associations between food insecurity and structural, physical and mental health, and psychosocial factors 5 years after Hurricane Katrina. Logistic regression models were fit and odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI estimated. RESULTS: Nearly one-quarter of respondents (23%) reported food insecurity 5 years post Katrina. Marital/partner status (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.42, 0.99), self-efficacy (OR: 0.56, CI: 0.37, 0.84), sense of community (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.44, 0.98), and social support (OR: 0.59, CI: 0.39, 0.89) lowered the odds of food insecurity and explained most of the effects of mental health distress on food insecurity. Social support, self-efficacy, and being partnered were protective against food insecurity. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery efforts should focus on fostering social-support networks and increased self-efficacy to improve food insecurity post disaster. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:47-56).