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1.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(8): 1319-1323, 2020 Aug 10.
Artículo en Chino | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32867443

RESUMEN

Objective: To understand the characteristics of spatiotemporal clustering on hepatitis A in Gansu province and to provide evidence for hepatitis A prevention and control. Methods: Data related to hepatitis A were retrieved from National Notifiable Disease Report System, ArcGIS 10.3 and SaTScan 9.1 in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. Results: The annual average report incidence rate of hepatitis A was 10.91/100 000, showing a descending trend with no periodic or seasonal features. After the implementation of national expanded immunization program, high annual incidence rates had been seen in Linxia Hui autonomous prefecture and Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture. From 2004 to 2012, the lowest RR value appeared in the 0-9 age group (P=0.000) while the highest RR value was in the over 60 age group during 2013-2018 except for the age 0-9 group in 2015. The annual average incidence rate was increasing from south to north and west to east, across the territory. Results from the temporal scanning program revealed that the incidence of hepatitis A was temporally aggregated from 2004 to 2018. For spatio-temporal scanning of 2004-2008, data showed one most likely cluster area (radius: 91.95 km, Time frame: 2004-2005), apparel mainly in Linxia and Longnan cities. Results from the spatio-temporal scanning program of 2009-2018 also showed that the most likely cluster areas (radius: 183.26 km, Time frame: 2009-2012) were in Gannan, Linxia, Dingxi and Longnan areas. Conclusions: The reported incidence rates of hepatitis A were declining, without significant periodic or seasonal pattern in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. In the 0-9 years-old group, the incidence rate showed the lowest, while the highest was in the 60 year-olds group. Spatio-temporal clustering of hepatitis A was observed in Gansu province from 2004 to 2018. Strategies on prevention and control of the disease should be targeted in the southwest regions of the province.


Asunto(s)
Hepatitis A/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , China/epidemiología , Ciudades/epidemiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
2.
Nature ; 585(7823): 74-78, 2020 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32879498

RESUMEN

Introductions of species by humans are causing the homogenization of species composition across biogeographic barriers1-3. The ecological and evolutionary consequences of introduced species derive from their effects on networks of species interactions4,5, but we lack a quantitative understanding of the impacts of introduced species on ecological networks and their biogeographic patterns globally. Here we address this data gap by analysing mutualistic seed-dispersal interactions from 410 local networks, encompassing 24,455 unique pairwise interactions between 1,631 animal and 3,208 plant species. We show that species introductions reduce biogeographic compartmentalization of the global meta-network, in which nodes are species and links are interactions observed within any local network. This homogenizing effect extends across spatial scales, decreasing beta diversity among local networks and modularity within networks. The prevalence of introduced interactions is directly related to human environmental modifications and is accelerating, having increased sevenfold over the past 75 years. These dynamics alter the coevolutionary environments that mutualists experience6, and we find that introduced species disproportionately interact with other introduced species. These processes are likely to amplify biotic homogenization in future ecosystems7 and may reduce the resilience of ecosystems by allowing perturbations to propagate more quickly and exposing disparate ecosystems to similar drivers. Our results highlight the importance of managing the increasing homogenization of ecological complexity.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Especies Introducidas , Filogeografía , Plantas , Simbiosis , Animales , Biodiversidad , Actividades Humanas , Dispersión de Semillas , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 700, 2020 Sep 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32967639

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time. METHODS: Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. RESULTS: Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. CONCLUSIONS: A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Betacoronavirus , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Geografía , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Modelos Lineales , Pandemias , Salud Pública , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Factores de Tiempo
4.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239645, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32970773

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: As a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country. METHOD: A key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand. RESULTS: The estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23-5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country. DISCUSSION: Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Número Básico de Reproducción , Betacoronavirus , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias , Tailandia/epidemiología
5.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(9): e1008269, 2020 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941419

RESUMEN

We propose an efficient framework for genetic subtyping of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 pandemic. Efficient viral subtyping enables visualization and modeling of the geographic distribution and temporal dynamics of disease spread. Subtyping thereby advances the development of effective containment strategies and, potentially, therapeutic and vaccine strategies. However, identifying viral subtypes in real-time is challenging: SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus, and the pandemic is rapidly expanding. Viral subtypes may be difficult to detect due to rapid evolution; founder effects are more significant than selection pressure; and the clustering threshold for subtyping is not standardized. We propose to identify mutational signatures of available SARS-CoV-2 sequences using a population-based approach: an entropy measure followed by frequency analysis. These signatures, Informative Subtype Markers (ISMs), define a compact set of nucleotide sites that characterize the most variable (and thus most informative) positions in the viral genomes sequenced from different individuals. Through ISM compression, we find that certain distant nucleotide variants covary, including non-coding and ORF1ab sites covarying with the D614G spike protein mutation which has become increasingly prevalent as the pandemic has spread. ISMs are also useful for downstream analyses, such as spatiotemporal visualization of viral dynamics. By analyzing sequence data available in the GISAID database, we validate the utility of ISM-based subtyping by comparing spatiotemporal analyses using ISMs to epidemiological studies of viral transmission in Asia, Europe, and the United States. In addition, we show the relationship of ISMs to phylogenetic reconstructions of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and therefore, ISMs can play an important complementary role to phylogenetic tree-based analysis, such as is done in the Nextstrain project. The developed pipeline dynamically generates ISMs for newly added SARS-CoV-2 sequences and updates the visualization of pandemic spatiotemporal dynamics, and is available on Github at https://github.com/EESI/ISM (Jupyter notebook), https://github.com/EESI/ncov_ism (command line tool) and via an interactive website at https://covid19-ism.coe.drexel.edu/.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/clasificación , Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Genómica/métodos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Evolución Molecular , Marcadores Genéticos/genética , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Mutación/genética , Filogenia , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/virología , ARN Viral/genética , Alineación de Secuencia , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
6.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4631, 2020 09 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32934205

RESUMEN

The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of human population is vital for the study of cities, disaster risk management or planning of infrastructure. However, information on the distribution of population is often based on place-of-residence statistics from official sources, thus ignoring the changing population densities resulting from human mobility. Existing assessments of spatio-temporal population are limited in their detail and geographical coverage, and the promising mobile-phone records are hindered by issues concerning availability and consistency. Here, we present a multi-layered dasymetric approach that combines official statistics with geospatial data from emerging sources to produce and validate a European Union-wide dataset of population grids taking into account intraday and monthly population variations at 1 km2 resolution. The results reproduce and systematically quantify known insights concerning the spatio-temporal population density structure of large European cities, whose daytime population we estimate to be, on average, 1.9 times higher than night time in city centers.


Asunto(s)
Densidad de Población , Teléfono Celular/estadística & datos numéricos , Ciudades/estadística & datos numéricos , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
7.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis ; 24(8): 829-837, 2020 08 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32912388

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Italy has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and has one of the highest death tolls. We analyzed the severity of COVID-19 across all 20 Italian regions.METHOD: We manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 in each region, and estimated the crude case fatality ratio and time delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (aCFR). We then assessed the association between aCFR and sociodemographic, health care and transmission factors using multivariate regression analysis.RESULTS: The overall aCFR in Italy was estimated at 17.4%. Lombardia exhibited the highest aCFR (24.7%), followed by Marche (19.3%), Emilia Romagna (17.7%) and Liguria (17.6%). Our aCFR estimate was greater than 10% for 12 regions. Our aCFR estimates were statistically associated with population density and cumulative morbidity rate in a multivariate analysis.CONCLUSION: Our aCFR estimates for Italy as a whole and for seven out of the 20 regions exceeded those reported for the most badly affected region in China. These findings highlight the importance of social distancing to suppress transmission to avoid overwhelming the health care system and reduce the risk of death.


Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Densidad de Población , Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Incidencia , Italia/epidemiología , Mortalidad , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
8.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4295, 2020 09 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32908130

RESUMEN

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008-16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.


Asunto(s)
Animales Salvajes , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Costos y Análisis de Costo/estadística & datos numéricos , Producción de Cultivos/tendencias , Productos Agrícolas/economía , Animales , Biodiversidad , Mariposas Diurnas , Producción de Cultivos/economía , Producción de Cultivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Dispersión de las Plantas , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Estados Unidos
9.
Environ Monit Assess ; 192(9): 578, 2020 Aug 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32780308

RESUMEN

Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of water quality is central to its management as it provides information essential to the restoration as well as protection of water resources. The main objectives of this study were (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of water quality and (ii) to identify the critical sources of pollution in the Klip River catchment (KRC). Water samples were collected at 12 sampling points along the Klip River, monthly from February 2016 to January 2017 and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and spectrophotometry for heavy metals and nutrients, respectively. Multivariate statistical techniques (cluster analysis and discriminant analysis) were used to delineate homogeneous water quality zones and seasons, and principal component analysis was used to identify pollution sources. Comprehensive pollution index (CPI) was also computed to classify the overall pollution of the river. The spatial grouping yielded two homogenous water quality zones namely upstream and downstream. Temporal grouping yielded two clusters, which were attributed to the effects of the El Nino (2015/16 season) and La Nina phenomena (2016/17 season). The CPI revealed that the KRC was critically polluted in the upstream for domestic (162.16-323.28) and aquatic uses (617.70-837.09) in both the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 seasons. It can be concluded that pollutants, which influence water quality in the KRC in one season and/or location, may not necessarily be the same in the other season or location. Therefore, there is need to develop a water quality management plan in the KRC that targets the most impaired uses, pollutants of priority, and the critically polluted areas.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Químicos del Agua/análisis , Calidad del Agua , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Estaciones del Año , Sudáfrica , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
10.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(7): 1165-1170, 2020 Jul 10.
Artículo en Chino | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32741189

RESUMEN

In recent years, the research of spatiotemporal clustering of disease is attracting more and more attention, which plays an important role in understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of diseases, and can provide references for the etiology exploration and prevention and control of diseases. In order to better understand the research methods of spatiotemporal clustering of diseases and its application progress, this paper summarizes the statistical methods commonly used in relevant researches at demestic and abroad from three aspects of temporal clustering, spatial clustering and spatiotemporal clustering of diseases.


Asunto(s)
Investigación Biomédica/tendencias , Enfermedad , Análisis por Conglomerados , Humanos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
11.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237901, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32817697

RESUMEN

Among the different indicators that quantify the spread of an epidemic such as the on-going COVID-19, stands first the reproduction number which measures how many people can be contaminated by an infected person. In order to permit the monitoring of the evolution of this number, a new estimation procedure is proposed here, assuming a well-accepted model for current incidence data, based on past observations. The novelty of the proposed approach is twofold: 1) the estimation of the reproduction number is achieved by convex optimization within a proximal-based inverse problem formulation, with constraints aimed at promoting piecewise smoothness; 2) the approach is developed in a multivariate setting, allowing for the simultaneous handling of multiple time series attached to different geographical regions, together with a spatial (graph-based) regularization of their evolutions in time. The effectiveness of the approach is first supported by simulations, and two main applications to real COVID-19 data are then discussed. The first one refers to the comparative evolution of the reproduction number for a number of countries, while the second one focuses on French departments and their joint analysis, leading to dynamic maps revealing the temporal co-evolution of their reproduction numbers.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Modelos Estadísticos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Algoritmos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Bases de Datos Factuales , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Francia/epidemiología , Humanos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/virología , Distribución de Poisson , Programas Informáticos
12.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e188, 2020 08 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32829732

RESUMEN

This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceará and Maranhão. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceará state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Betacoronavirus , Brasil/epidemiología , Ciudades , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Pandemias
13.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4229, 2020 08 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32843631

RESUMEN

Scarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011-2018 was twice that in 2004-2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29-2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO2 (r = 0.21) and O3 (r = 0.11). A 10 µg/m3 increase of NO2 and O3 was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO2 and O3 may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Escarlatina/diagnóstico , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , China/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Geografía , Humanos , Incidencia , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Dinámicas no Lineales , Ozono/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Factores de Riesgo , Escarlatina/epidemiología , Escarlatina/etiología , Estaciones del Año , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
14.
Euro Surveill ; 25(32)2020 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32794443

RESUMEN

We show the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three genomic nomenclature systems to all sequence data from the World Health Organization European Region available until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation, compare the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Coronavirus/genética , Genoma Viral/genética , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , ARN Replicasa/genética , ARN Viral/análisis , Secuencia de Bases , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidad , Coronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Filogeografía , Neumonía Viral/virología , ARN Viral/genética , Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Organización Mundial de la Salud
15.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 14(8): e0008445, 2020 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32745113

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, acute Chagas disease (ACD) surveillance involves mandatory notification, which allows for population-based epidemiological studies. We conducted a nationwide population-based ecological analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns of ACD notifications in Brazil using secondary surveillance data obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) maintained by Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this nationwide population-based ecological all cases of ACD reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2018 were included. Epidemiological characteristics and time trends were analyzed through joinpoint regression models and spatial distribution using microregions as the unit of analysis. A total of 5,184 cases of ACD were recorded during the period under study. The annual incidence rate in Brazil was 0.16 per 100,000 inhabitants/year. Three statistically significant changes in time trends were identified: a rapid increase prior to 2005 (Period 1), a stable drop from 2005 to 2009 (Period 2), followed by another increasing trend after 2009 (Period 3). Higher frequencies were noted in males and females in the North (all three periods) and in females in Northeast (Periods 1 and 2) macroregions, as well as in individuals aged between 20-64 years in the Northeast, and children, adolescents and the elderly in the North macroregion. Vectorial transmission was the main route reported during Period 1, while oral transmission was found to increase significantly in the North during the other periods. Spatiotemporal distribution was heterogeneous in Brazil over time. Despite regional differences, over time cases of ACD decreased significantly nationwide. An increasing trend was noted in the North (especially after 2007), and significant decreases occurred after 2008 among all microregions other than those in the North, especially those in the Northeast and Central-West macroregions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In light of the newly identified epidemiological profile of CD transmission in Brazil, we emphasize the need for strategically integrated entomological and health surveillance actions.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Chagas/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Brasil/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Salud Pública , Estudios Retrospectivos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Adulto Joven
16.
Cancer Radiother ; 24(6-7): 691-698, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32753235

RESUMEN

Prescription and delivery of protons are somewhat different compared to photons and may influence outcomes (tumour control and toxicity). These differences should be taken into account to fully exploit the clinical potential of proton therapy. Innovations in proton therapy treatment are also required to widen the therapeutic window and determine appropriate populations of patients that would benefit from new treatments. Therefore, strategies are now being developed to reduce side effects to critical normal tissues using alternative treatment configurations and new spatial or temporal-driven optimisation approaches. Indeed, spatiotemporal optimisation (based on flash, proton minibeam radiation therapy or hypofractionated delivery methods) has been gaining some attention in proton therapy as a mean of improving (biological and physical) dose distribution. In this short review, the main differences in planning and delivery between protons and photons, as well as some of the latest developments and methodological issues (in silico modelling) related to providing scientific evidence for these new techniques will be discussed.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias Encefálicas/radioterapia , Terapia de Protones/métodos , Humanos , Dosificación Radioterapéutica/normas , Planificación de la Radioterapia Asistida por Computador , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
17.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236938, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32785235

RESUMEN

Little is known about the characteristics of ambient sound in shallow waters southwest of Hainan Island, China, a tropical habitat of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin. The spatiotemporal patterns of soundscape in this area were thus studied and described here. Acoustic data collected from February 2018 to February 2019 at ten monitoring sites, spanning ~200 km of the coastline, were analyzed. The ambient sound characteristics in the investigated area showed significant spatiotemporal variations. Sound levels centered at 0.5 and 1 kHz were higher during dusk and night than other times of the day at all monitoring sites except for one. Higher sound levels at frequencies above 8 kHz were documented during autumn and winter at all sites except for three of them. Biological and anthropogenic sound sources including soniferous fishes, snapping shrimps, dolphins, ships, pile-driving activities, and explosions were identified during spectrogram analyses of a subsample of the dataset. The shipping noise was frequently detected throughout the monitoring sites. Spatiotemporal variations of the soundscape in the investigated waters provided baseline information on the local marine environment, which will be beneficial to the protection of the vulnerable Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin population recently discovered in the investigated waters.


Asunto(s)
Delfines , Ecosistema , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Sonido , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Clima Tropical , Acústica , Animales
18.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236631, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32797051

RESUMEN

Pelagic seabirds are elusive species which are difficult to observe, thus determining their spatial distribution during the migration period is a difficult task. Here we undertook the first long-term study on the distribution of migrating shearwaters from data gathered within the framework of citizen science projects. Specifically, we collected daily abundance (only abundance given presence) of Balearic shearwaters from 2005 to 2017 from the online databases Trektellen and eBird. We applied machine-learning techniques, specifically Random Forest regression models, to predict shearwater abundance during migration using 15 environmental predictors. We built separated models for pre-breeding and post-breeding migration. When evaluated for the total data sample, the models explained more than 52% of the variation in shearwater abundance. The models also showed good ability to predict shearwater distributions for both migration periods (correlation between observed and predicted abundance was about 70%). However, relative variable importance and variation among the models built with different training data subsamples differed between migration periods. Our results showed that data gathered in citizen science initiatives together with recently available high-resolution satellite imagery, can be successfully applied to describe the migratory spatio-temporal patterns of seabird species accurately. We show that a predictive modelling approach may offer a powerful and cost-effective tool for the long-term monitoring of the migratory patterns in sensitive marine species, as well as to identify at sea areas relevant for their protection. Modelling approaches can also be essential tools to detect the impacts of climate and other global changes in this and other species within the range of the training data.


Asunto(s)
Migración Animal , Aves , Ciencia Ciudadana , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Animales , Cruzamiento , Bases de Datos como Asunto , Europa (Continente) , Aprendizaje Automático , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos de Interacción Espacial , Estaciones del Año , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
19.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0227469, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32822345

RESUMEN

China's rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to poor air quality, and air pollution has caused great concern among the Chinese public. Most analyses of air pollution trends in China are based on model simulations or satellite data. Studies using field observation data and focusing on the latest data from environmental monitoring stations covering the whole country to assess the latest trends of different pollutants in different regions are relatively rare. The State Council of China promulgated the toughest-ever Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Action Plan) in 2013. This led to a major improvement in air quality. We use the hourly Air Quality Index (AQI) and mass concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 in 362 cities from 2015 to 2019, obtained from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, to study their temporal and spatial changes and assess the effectiveness of the policy on the atmospheric environment since its promulgation and implementation. We found that the national and regional air quality in China continues to improve, with PM2.5, PM10, AQI, CO, and SO2 exhibiting negative trends. However, O3 and NO2 pollution is an urgent problem that needs to be solved and the current control strategy for PM2.5 will only partially reduce the PM2.5 pollution in the western region. Although the implementation of "Action Plan" measures has effectively improved air quality, China's air pollution is still serious and far from the WHO standard. Implementing measures for continuous and effective emissions control is still a top priority.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/química , China
20.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236278, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32841247

RESUMEN

Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.


Asunto(s)
Reservorios de Enfermedades/virología , Perros/virología , Seguimiento de Parámetros Ecológicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Rabia/epidemiología , Tiempo (Meteorología) , Animales , Causalidad , Ciudades/estadística & datos numéricos , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Predicción/métodos , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Estadísticos , Filipinas/epidemiología , Rabia/prevención & control , Rabia/virología , Virus de la Rabia , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
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