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1.
J Public Health Manag Pract ; 27 Suppl 1, COVID-19 and Public Health: Looking Back, Moving Forward: S80-S86, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33239568

RESUMEN

Responding to introductions of diseases and conditions of unknown etiology is a critical public health function. In late December 2019, investigation of a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown origin in Wuhan, China, resulted in the identification of a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Multiple public health surveillance actions were rapidly implemented to detect introduction of the virus into the United States and track its spread including establishment of a national surveillance case definition and addition of the disease, coronavirus disease 2019, to the list of nationally notifiable conditions. Challenges in conducting effective case-based surveillance and the public health data supply chain and infrastructure are discussed.


Asunto(s)
/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Guías como Asunto , Morbilidad , Pandemias/prevención & control , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , United States Public Health Service/normas , /epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , United States Public Health Service/estadística & datos numéricos
2.
J Infect Chemother ; 27(1): 62-64, 2021 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32896479

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: As countermeasures against the COVID-19 outbreak, sports and entertainment events were canceled (VEC) in Japan for two weeks from 26 February through 13 March. Moreover, most schools were closed (SC). OBJECTIVE: For this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and SC and VEC effects. METHOD: After constructing a susceptible-infected-recovered model with three age classes, we used data of symptomatic patients in Japan for 14 January through 24 March. The SC and VEC effects were incorporated into the model through changes in contact patterns and contact frequencies among age classes. RESULTS: Results suggest R0 as 2.56, with 95% CI of [2.51, 2.96] before SC and VEC. The respective effects of SC and VEC were estimated as 0.4 (95% CI [0.3, 0.5]) and 0.5 (95% CI [0.3, 0.7]). CONCLUSION: The estimated R0 is similar to those found from other studies of China and Japan. Significant reduction of contact frequency has been achieved by SC and VEC. Nevertheless, its magnitude was insufficient to contain the outbreak.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Instituciones Académicas/organización & administración , Adulto , Anciano , Número Básico de Reproducción , Betacoronavirus , Niño , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Japón/epidemiología , Modelos Estadísticos
3.
Glob Health Res Policy ; 5(1): 50, 2020 11 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33292780

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Millions of people have been infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aim to propose fourteen prediction models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the COVID-19 outbreak for policy makers. METHODS: The ANN-based models were utilized to estimate the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, Japan, Singapore, Iran, Italy, South Africa and United States of America. These models exploit historical records of confirmed cases, while their main difference is the number of days that they assume to have impact on the estimation process. The COVID-19 data were divided into a train part and a test part. The former was used to train the ANN models, while the latter was utilized to compare the purposes. The data analysis shows not only significant fluctuations in the daily confirmed cases but also different ranges of total confirmed cases observed in the time interval considered. RESULTS: Based on the obtained results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous 14 days outperforms the other ones. This comparison reveals the importance of considering the maximum incubation period in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the ranges of determination coefficients indicates that the estimated results for Italy are the best one. Moreover, the predicted results for Iran achieved the ranges of [0.09, 0.15] and [0.21, 0.36] for the mean absolute relative errors and normalized root mean square errors, respectively, which were the best ranges obtained for these criteria among different countries. CONCLUSION: Based on the achieved results, the ANN-based model that takes into account the previous fourteen days for prediction is suggested to predict daily confirmed cases, particularly in countries that have experienced the first peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has not only proved the applicability of ANN-based model for prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also showed that considering incubation period of SARS-COV-2 in prediction models may generate more accurate estimations.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Redes Neurales de la Computación , /virología , China/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Humanos , Irán/epidemiología , Italia/epidemiología , Japón/epidemiología , Pandemias , Singapur/epidemiología , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
4.
Front Public Health ; 8: 548708, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330304

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as global pandemic in March 2020. Considering the necessity to implement rapid response to control the pandemic and the fragility and the state of need of low income countries, it will be mandatory to develop a global approach in order to reduce the spread of infection and the creation of community viral reservoirs. So far, we could hypothesize a worst case scenario in which when the COVID-19 outbreak hits a peak in Africa and in low-income countries, the majority of such countries will be unprepared, with low resources allocated for affording the viral emergency and the consequences will be catastrophic with no lesson learnt. In the best case scenario, the COVID-19 will not affect Africa or South America on a large scale and, if the prevention measures will be implemented, we could register a lower incidence of hygiene linked diseases that still represent leading causes of death.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Países en Desarrollo/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Política de Salud , Salud Pública/estadística & datos numéricos , África , Humanos , Incidencia , América del Sur
5.
Front Public Health ; 8: 550602, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330305

RESUMEN

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to reduce the significant amount of cases that arrive at the hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. After the first weeks, the worry was whether or not the healthcare system would collapse rather than its response to the patient's needs who are infected and require hospitalization. Using China as a mirror of what could happen in our countries and with the data available, we calculated a model that forecasts the peak of the curve of infection, hospitalization, and ICU bed numbers. We aimed to review the patterns of spread of the virus in the two countries and their regions, looking for similarities that reflect the existence of a typical path in this expansive virulence and the effects of the intervention of the authorities with drastic isolation measures, to contain the outbreak. A model based on Autorregressive and moving average models (ARMA) methodology and including Chinese disease pattern as a proxy, predicts the contagious pattern robustly. Based on the prediction, the hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) requirements were also calculated. Results suggest a reduction in the speed of contagion during April in both countries, earlier in Spain than in Italy. The forecast advanced a significant increase in the ICU needs for Spain surpassing 8,000 units by the end of April, but for Italy, ICU needs would decrease in the same period, according to the model. We present the following predictions to inform political leaders because they have the responsibility to maintain the national health systems away from collapsing. We are confident these data could help them into decision-taking and place the capitals (from hospital beds to human resources) into the right place.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Exactitud de los Datos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Análisis de Regresión , Humanos , Incidencia , Italia/epidemiología , Prevalencia , España/epidemiología
6.
Front Public Health ; 8: 559437, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330309

RESUMEN

Background: Amid a critical and emergent situation like the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic related to extreme health and economic repercussions, we used and presented the mathematical modeling like susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) to have a numerical demonstration that can shed light to decide the fate of the scourge in Bangladesh. To describe the idea about the factors influencing the outbreak data, we presented the current situation of the COVID-19 outbreak with graphical trends. Methods: Primary data were collected and analyzed by using a pre-created Google Survey form having a pre-set questionnaire on the social distancing status of different districts. Secondary data on the total and the daily number of laboratory tests, confirmed positive cases, and death cases were extracted from the publicly available sources to make predictions. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R ◦) based on the SIR mathematical model and predicted the probable fate of this pandemic in Bangladesh. Results: Quarantine situations in different regions of Bangladesh were evaluated and presented. We also provided tentative forecasts until 31 May 2020 and found that the predicted curve followed the actual curve approximately. Estimated R ◦-values (6.924) indicated that infection rate would be greater than the recovery rate. Furthermore, by calibrating the parameters of the SIR model to fit the reported data, we assume the ultimate ending of the pandemic in Bangladesh by December 2022. Conclusion: We hope that the results of our analysis could contribute to the elucidation of critical aspects of this outbreak and help the concerned authority toward decision making.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Adhesión a Directriz/estadística & datos numéricos , Adhesión a Directriz/tendencias , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Predicción , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos
7.
Front Public Health ; 8: 609974, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33344408

RESUMEN

Background: COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent. Methods: We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach. Results: Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province. Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.


Asunto(s)
/transmisión , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Viaje/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , China/epidemiología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven
9.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 22236, 2020 12 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33335136

RESUMEN

Covid-19 pandemic is exerting a tragic impact all around the world. First-person experience of life-threatening and stressful events can modify individuals' risk perception, and, consequently, risk-taking behaviours. Here we investigated risk-taking profiles in 130 Italian residents, and compared healthcare to non-healthcare workers, during the lockdown phase. We ad hoc developed the "Covid-19 Risk Task", including the classic monetary Holt-Laury Paired Lottery Task (Monetary Condition, MC) and two new ecological conditions exploring Covid-19 related risk-taking aptitudes in relation to different health (Health Status Condition, HsC) and employment (Employment Status Condition, EsC) outcomes. Results showed that, in the whole sample, individuals were more risk-averse in MC than in HsC and EsC. Moreover, a payoff increase produced a shift toward more risk-averse behaviours in MC, but not in HsC and EsC, where we found an opposite trend suggesting a more risk-loving behaviour. Finally, we found that healthcare workers were significantly less risk-averse compared to non-healthcare workers in EsC, but not in MC and HsC. These findings provided evidence of the possible effects of Covid-19 outbreak on risk-taking aptitudes. The negative impact on human choices and, consequently, on the whole world economy of this catastrophic life event must not be underestimated.


Asunto(s)
/psicología , Personal de Salud/psicología , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Asunción de Riesgos , Desempleo/psicología , Adulto , Anciano , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Italia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , /patogenicidad
11.
PLoS One ; 15(12): e0242764, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33259531

RESUMEN

With the spread of COVID-19, more countries now recommend their citizens to wear facemasks in public. The uptake of facemasks, however, remains far from universal in countries where this practice lacks cultural roots. In this paper, we aim to identify the barriers to mask-wearing in Spain, a country with no mask-wearing culture. We conduct one of the first nationally representative surveys (n = 4,000) about this unprecedented public health emergency and identify the profile of citizens who are more resistant to face-masking: young, educated, unconcerned with being infected, and with an introverted personality. Our results further indicate a positive correlation between a social norm of mask-wearing and mask uptake and demonstrate that uptake of facemasks is especially high among the elderly living in localities where mask-wearing behavior is popular. These results are robust when controlling for respondents' demographics, time spent at home, and occupation fixed effects. Our findings can be useful for policymakers to devise effective programs for improving public compliance.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Conductas Relacionadas con la Salud , Máscaras , Bienestar Social/psicología , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Personalidad , Medición de Riesgo , España/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
12.
Porto Alegre; CEVS/RS; 2 dez. 2020. 1-25 p. ilus., graf., tab., mapas.
Monografía en Portugués | Coleciona SUS, CONASS, SES-RS | ID: biblio-1140668

RESUMEN

Neste boletim são apresentados: situação mundial, ocorrência de hospitalizações confirmadas para sars-cov-2, perfil das pessoas, distribuição espacial, Síndrome Inflamatória Multissistêmica Pediátrica (SIM-P), povos indígenas, descrição de surtos, trabalhadores da saúde, Vigilância sentinela de síndrome gripal etabelas de descrição do surto. (AU)


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Recién Nacido , Lactante , Preescolar , Niño , Adolescente , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Perfil de Salud , Mortalidad Hospitalaria/etnología , Personal de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Grupos de Población/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad
13.
CMAJ Open ; 8(4): E819-E824, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33293331

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There is high risk of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in congregate settings, including shelters. This study describes a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and corresponding reported symptomatology at a shelter in Toronto. METHODS: This clinical and epidemiologic analysis focuses on a COVID-19 outbreak at a dedicated refugee shelter in downtown Toronto. All adult residents on site at the shelter were offered SARS-CoV-2 testing on Apr. 20, 2020. At the time of testing, residents were screened for 3 typical COVID-19 symptoms (fever, cough and shortness of breath). Among those who tested positive, a more comprehensive clinical assessment was conducted 1 day after testing and a standardized 15-item symptom screen was administered by telephone 14 days after testing. We report rates of positive test results and clinical symptoms with each assessment interval. RESULTS: Of the 63 adult residents on site at the shelter, 60 agreed to be tested. Among those tested, 41.7% (n = 25) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of those who tested positive (n = 25), 20.0% (n = 5) reported fever, cough or shortness of breath at the time of testing. On more detailed assessment 1 day later, 70.8% (17/24) reported a broader range of symptoms. During the 14 days after testing, 87.5% (21/24) reported symptoms of infection. INTERPRETATION: We found a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this shelter population. Our study underscores the high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in congregate living settings and the importance of mobilizing timely testing and management of symptomatic, paucisymptomatic and asymptomatic residents in shelters.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Refugiados/estadística & datos numéricos , /genética , Adulto , /virología , Canadá/epidemiología , Tos/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Disnea/epidemiología , Femenino , Fiebre/epidemiología , Vivienda , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad
14.
Rev. esp. cardiol. (Ed. impr.) ; 73(12): 994-1002, dic. 2020. tab, graf
Artículo en Español | IBECS | ID: ibc-192957

RESUMEN

INTRODUCCIÓN Y OBJETIVOS: El impacto del brote de COVID-19 en el tratamiento del infarto agudo de miocardio con elevación del segmento ST (IAMCEST) no está claro. El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar los cambios en el tratamiento del IAMCEST durante el brote de COVID-19. MÉTODOS: Se utilizó un registro multicéntrico, nacional, retrospectivo y observacional de pacientes consecutivos atendidos en 75 centros, se compararon las características de los pacientes y de los procedimientos y los resultados hospitalarios en 2 cohortes según se los hubiera tratado antes o durante la COVID-19. RESULTADOS: Los casos con sospecha de IAMCEST disminuyeron el 27,6% y los pacientes con IAMCEST confirmado se redujeron de 1.305 a 1.009 (22,7%). No hubo diferencias en la estrategia de reperfusión (más del 94% tratados con angioplastia primaria). El tiempo de isquemia fue más largo durante la COVID-19 (233 [150-375] frente a 200 [140-332] min; p <0,001), sin diferencias en el tiempo primer contacto médico-reperfusión. La mortalidad hospitalaria fue mayor durante la COVID-19 (el 7,5 frente al 5,1%; OR bruta=1,50; IC95%, 1,07-2,11; p <0,001); esta asociación se mantuvo tras ajustar por factores de confusión (OR ajustada=1,88; IC95%, 1,12-3,14; p = 0,017). La incidencia de infección confirmada por SARS-CoV-2 fue del 6,3%. CONCLUSIONES: El brote de COVID-19ha implicado una disminución en el número de pacientes con IAMCEST, un aumento del tiempo entre el inicio de los síntomas y la reperfusión y un aumento en la mortalidad hospitalaria. No se han detectado cambios en la estrategia de reperfusión. La combinación de infección por SARS-CoV-2 e IAMCEST fue relativamente infrecuente


INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 outbreak has had an unclear impact on the treatment and outcomes of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of this study was to assess changes in STEMI management during the COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: Using a multicenter, nationwide, retrospective, observational registry of consecutive patients who were managed in 75 specific STEMI care centers in Spain, we compared patient and procedural characteristics and in-hospital outcomes in 2 different cohorts with 30-day follow-up according to whether the patients had been treated before or after COVID-19. RESULTS: Suspected STEMI patients treated in STEMI networks decreased by 27.6% and patients with confirmed STEMI fell from 1305 to 1009 (22.7%). There were no differences in reperfusion strategy (> 94% treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention in both cohorts). Patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention during the COVID-19 outbreak had a longer ischemic time (233 [150-375] vs 200 [140-332] minutes, P<.001) but showed no differences in the time from first medical contact to reperfusion. In-hospital mortality was higher during COVID-19 (7.5% vs 5.1%; unadjusted OR, 1.50; 95%CI, 1.07-2.11; P <.001); this association remained after adjustment for confounders (risk-adjusted OR, 1.88; 95%CI, 1.12-3.14; P=.017). In the 2020 cohort, there was a 6.3% incidence of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: The number of STEMI patients treated during the current COVID-19 outbreak fell vs the previous year and there was an increase in the median time from symptom onset to reperfusion and a significant 2-fold increase in the rate of in-hospital mortality. No changes in reperfusion strategy were detected, with primary percutaneous coronary intervention performed for the vast majority of patients. The co-existence of STEMI and SARS-CoV-2 infection was relatively infrequent


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Virus del SRAS/patogenicidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/complicaciones , Infarto del Miocardio con Elevación del ST/epidemiología , Angioplastia Coronaria con Balón/métodos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Tratamiento de Urgencia/métodos , Infarto del Miocardio con Elevación del ST/terapia , Registros de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos
15.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0242128, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33175914

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is now a global concern because of its higher transmission capacity and associated adverse consequences including death. The reproductive number of coronavirus provides an estimate of the possible extent of the transmission. This study aims to provide a summary reproductive number of coronavirus based on available global level evidence. METHODS: A total of three databases were searched on September 15, 2020: PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct. The searches were conducted using a pre-specified search strategy to record studies reported the reproductive number of coronavirus from its inception in December 2019. It includes keywords of coronavirus and its reproductive number, which were combined using the Boolean operators (AND, OR). Based on the included studies, we estimated a summary reproductive number by using the meta-analysis. We used narrative synthesis to explain the results of the studies where the reproductive number was reported, however, were not possible to include in the meta-analysis because of the lack of data (mostly due to confidence interval was not reported). RESULTS: Total of 42 studies included in this review whereas 29 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated summary reproductive number was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.39-3.44). We found evidence of very high heterogeneity (99.5%) of the reproductive number reported in the included studies. Our sub-group analysis was found the significant variations of reproductive number across the country for which it was estimated, method and model that were used to estimate the reproductive number, number of case that was considered to estimate the reproductive number, and the type of reproductive number that was estimated. The highest reproductive number was reported for the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in Japan (14.8). In the country-level, the higher reproductive number was reported for France (R, 6.32, 95% CI, 5.72-6.99) following Germany (R, 6.07, 95% CI, 5.51-6.69) and Spain (R, 3.56, 95% CI, 1.62-7.82). The higher reproductive number was reported if it was estimated by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) method and the Epidemic curve model. We also reported significant heterogeneity of the type of reproductive number- a high-value reported if it was the time-dependent reproductive number. CONCLUSION: The estimated summary reproductive number indicates an exponential increase of coronavirus infection in the coming days. Comprehensive policies and programs are important to reduce new infections as well as the associated adverse consequences including death.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Bases de Datos Factuales , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/virología
18.
Rev. clín. esp. (Ed. impr.) ; 220(8): 463-471, nov. 2020. tab, mapas, graf
Artículo en Español | IBECS | ID: ibc-192195

RESUMEN

ANTECEDENTES: El primer caso de COVID-19 se detectó en México el 27 de febrero de 2020. El 30 de abril, 64 días después de este primer diagnóstico, el número de pacientes aumentó exponencialmente, alcanzando un total de 19.224 casos confirmados y 1.859 (9,67%) fallecidos. En respuesta a este brote global, resumimos el estado actual del conocimiento sobre COVID-19 en México. MÉTODOS: Los datos se obtuvieron del sitio web oficial del Ministerio de Salud en México. El período analizado fue entre el 27 de febrero y el 30 de abril de 2020. Los casos se confirmaron mediante RT-PCR en tiempo real y se analizaron los datos epidemiológicos, demográficos y clínicos. RESULTADOS: La mayoría de los casos de COVID-19 se ubicaron en la Ciudad de México. La edad promedio de los pacientes fue de 46 años. De los 12.656 casos confirmados, el mayor número de infectados ocurre en el rango de edad entre 30 y 59 años (65,85%), y hubo una mayor incidencia en hombres (58,18%) que en mujeres (41,82%). Los pacientes fallecidos tenían una o múltiples comorbilidades, principalmente hipertensión (45,53%), diabetes (39,39%) y obesidad (30,4%). En los primeros 64 días de epidemia, China había reportado 80.304 casos con una tasa de mortalidad del 3,66%. CONCLUSIONES: Nuestros resultados indican la transmisión temprana de COVID-19 en México. La epidemiología descriptiva muestra las similitudes entre los casos de COVID-19 de México y China. En el mismo período de la curva epidémica, observamos en México una reducción en el número de casos confirmados de COVID-19 y una mayor tasa de mortalidad en comparación con China


BACKGROUND: The first case of COVID-19 detected in Mexico was on the 27th of February 2020. On the 30th of April, 64 days after this first diagnosis, the number of patients had increased exponentially, reaching 19 224 confirmed cases and 1859 (9.67%) deaths. In response to this global outbreak, we summarize the current state of our understanding regarding COVID-19 in Mexico. METHODS: We obtained the data from the official website of the Ministry of Health in Mexico. The study period was between the 27th of February and the 30th of April 2020. The cases were confirmed using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, and we analysed epidemiological, demographic and clinical data. RESULTS: In Mexico, most cases of COVID-19 were located in Mexico City. The mean age of the patients was 46 years. Of the 12 656 confirmed cases, most infected individuals were between the ages of 30 and 59 years (65.85%), and there was a higher incidence rate in men (58.18%) than in women (41.82%). The patients who died had one or more comorbidities, mainly hypertension (45.53%), diabetes (39.39%) and obesity (30.4%). In the first 64 days of the epidemic, China had reported 80 304 cases with a mortality rate of 3.66%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate an early transmission of COVID-19 in Mexico. The descriptive epidemiology shows similarities between the cases of COVID-19 in Mexico and those in China. In the same period of the epidemic curve, we observed a reduction in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mexico and a higher mortality rate compared with that of China


Asunto(s)
Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Lactante , Preescolar , Niño , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/tendencias , Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave/epidemiología , México/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Cuarentena/tendencias , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Virus del SRAS/patogenicidad
19.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 745, 2020 Oct 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33046011

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Workers and residents in Care Homes are considered at special risk for the acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to the infectivity and high mortality rate in the case of residents, compared to other containment areas. The role of presymptomatic people in transmission has been shown to be important and the early detection of these people is critical for the control of new outbreaks. Pooling strategies have proven to preserve SARS-CoV-2 testing resources. The aims of the present study, based in our local experience, were (a) to describe SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in institutionalized people in Galicia (Spain) during the Coronavirus pandemic and (b) to evaluate the expected performance of a pooling strategy using RT-PCR for the next rounds of screening of institutionalized people. METHODS: A total of 25,386 Nasopharyngeal swab samples from the total of the residents and workers at Care Homes in Galicia (March to May 2020) were individually tested using RT-PCR. Prevalence and quantification cycle (Cq) value distribution of positives was calculated. Besides, 26 pools of 20 samples and 14 pools of 5 samples were tested using RT-PCR as well (1 positive/pool). Pooling proof of concept was performed in two populations with 1.7 and 2% prevalence. RESULTS: Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection at Care Homes was uneven (0-60%). As the virus circulation global rate was low in our area (3.32%), the number of people at risk of acquiring the infection continues to be very high. In this work, we have successfully demonstrated that pooling of different groups of samples at low prevalence clusters, can be done with a small average delay on Cq values (5 and 2.85 cycles for pools of 20 and 5 samples, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A new screening system with guaranteed protection is required for small clusters, previously covered with individual testing. Our proposal for Care Homes, once prevalence zero is achieved, would include successive rounds of testing using a pooling solution for transmission control preserving testing resources. Scale-up of this method may be of utility to confront larger clusters to avoid the viral circulation and keeping them operative.


Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus/genética , Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Casas de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/virología , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , España/epidemiología
20.
J Travel Med ; 27(7)2020 11 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33051660

RESUMEN

Four billion people worldwide have experienced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) confinement. Such unprecedented extent of mobility restriction to curb the COVID-19 pandemic may have profound impacts on how individuals live, travel and retain well-being. This systematic review aims to identify (i) the social consequences of mass quarantine-community-wide movement restrictions-during previous and current infectious disease outbreaks and (ii) recommended strategies to mitigate the negative social implications of COVID-19 lockdowns. Considering social determinants of health, we conducted a systematic review by searching five databases (Ovid-MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the World Health Organization COVID-19 database) for publications from inception to 9 April 2020. No limitation was set on language, location or study type. Studies that (i) contained peer-reviewed original empirical evidence and (ii) focussed on non-epidemiological implications of mass quarantine were included. We thematically synthesized and reported data due to heterogeneous disease and country context. Of 3067 publications found, 15 original peer-reviewed articles were selected for full-text extraction. Psychological distress, heightened communication inequalities, food insecurity, economic challenges, diminished access to health care, alternative delivery of education and gender-based violence were identified as negative social consequences of community-based quarantine in six infectious disease epidemics, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, altruistic attitudes were identified as a positive consequence during previous quarantines. Diverse psychological and social consequences of mass quarantine in previous and current epidemics were evident, but individual country policies had been highly varied in how well they addressed the needs of affected individuals, especially those who are socially marginalized. Policymakers should balance the pros and cons of movement restrictions, facilitate multisectoral action to tackle social inequalities, provide clear and coherent guidance to the public and undertake time-bound policy evaluations to mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and to establish preparedness strategies for future epidemics.


Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Cuarentena/psicología , Aislamiento Social/psicología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Salud Mental , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Salud Pública , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , Viaje/estadística & datos numéricos , Organización Mundial de la Salud
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