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1.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1660, 2021 03 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33712587

RESUMEN

In less than nine months, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) killed over a million people, including >25,000 in New York City (NYC) alone. The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 highlights clinical needs to detect infection, track strain evolution, and identify biomarkers of disease course. To address these challenges, we designed a fast (30-minute) colorimetric test (LAMP) for SARS-CoV-2 infection from naso/oropharyngeal swabs and a large-scale shotgun metatranscriptomics platform (total-RNA-seq) for host, viral, and microbial profiling. We applied these methods to clinical specimens gathered from 669 patients in New York City during the first two months of the outbreak, yielding a broad molecular portrait of the emerging COVID-19 disease. We find significant enrichment of a NYC-distinctive clade of the virus (20C), as well as host responses in interferon, ACE, hematological, and olfaction pathways. In addition, we use 50,821 patient records to find that renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors have a protective effect for severe COVID-19 outcomes, unlike similar drugs. Finally, spatial transcriptomic data from COVID-19 patient autopsy tissues reveal distinct ACE2 expression loci, with macrophage and neutrophil infiltration in the lungs. These findings can inform public health and may help develop and drive SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic, prevention, and treatment strategies.


Asunto(s)
/genética , /genética , Adulto , Anciano , Antagonistas de Receptores de Angiotensina/farmacología , Inhibidores de la Enzima Convertidora de Angiotensina/farmacología , Antivirales/farmacología , /epidemiología , Interacciones Farmacológicas , Femenino , Perfilación de la Expresión Génica , Genoma Viral , Antígenos HLA/genética , Interacciones Microbiota-Huesped/efectos de los fármacos , Interacciones Microbiota-Huesped/genética , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Técnicas de Amplificación de Ácido Nucleico , Pandemias , RNA-Seq , /efectos de los fármacos
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(13)2021 03 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33727410

RESUMEN

Although there is increasing awareness of disparities in COVID-19 infection risk among vulnerable communities, the effect of behavioral interventions at the scale of individual neighborhoods has not been fully studied. We develop a method to quantify neighborhood activity behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions and test whether, and to what extent, behavioral responses to social-distancing policies vary with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We define exposure density ([Formula: see text]) as a measure of both the localized volume of activity in a defined area and the proportion of activity occurring in distinct land-use types. Using detailed neighborhood data for New York City, we quantify neighborhood exposure density using anonymized smartphone geolocation data over a 3-mo period covering more than 12 million unique devices and rasterize granular land-use information to contextualize observed activity. Next, we analyze disparities in community social distancing by estimating variations in neighborhood activity by land-use type before and after a mandated stay-at-home order. Finally, we evaluate the effects of localized demographic, socioeconomic, and built-environment density characteristics on infection rates and deaths in order to identify disparities in health outcomes related to exposure risk. Our findings demonstrate distinct behavioral patterns across neighborhoods after the stay-at-home order and that these variations in exposure density had a direct and measurable impact on the risk of infection. Notably, we find that an additional 10% reduction in exposure density city-wide could have saved between 1,849 and 4,068 lives during the study period, predominantly in lower-income and minority communities.


Asunto(s)
/transmisión , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Características de la Residencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Entorno Construido , /prevención & control , Sistemas de Información Geográfica , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Socioeconómicos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
3.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(3): e211816, 2021 03 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33729505

RESUMEN

Importance: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may exacerbate existing racial/ethnic inequities in preterm birth. Objective: To assess whether racial/ethnic disparities in very preterm birth (VPTB) and preterm birth (PTB) increased during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included 8026 Black, Latina, and White women who gave birth during the study period. A difference-in-differences (DID) analysis of Black vs White disparities in VPTB or PTB in a pandemic cohort was compared with a prepandemic cohort by using electronic medical records obtained from 2 hospitals in New York City. Exposures: Women who delivered from March 28 to July 31, 2020, were considered the pandemic cohort, and women who delivered from March 28 to July 31, 2019, were considered the prepandemic cohort. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests for the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were performed using samples obtained via nasopharyngeal swab at the time of admission. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical estimates of gestational age were used to calculate VPTB (<32 weeks) and PTB (<37 weeks). Log binomial regression was performed to estimate Black vs White risk differences, pandemic cohort vs prepandemic cohort risk difference, and an interaction term representing the DID estimator. Covariate-adjusted models included age, insurance, prepregnancy body mass index, and parity. Results: Of 3834 women in the pandemic cohort, 492 (12.8%) self-identified as Black, 678 (17.7%) as Latina, 2012 (52.5%) as White, 408 (10.6%) as Asian, and 244 (6.4%) as other or unspecified race/ethnicity, with approximately half the women 25 to 34 years of age. The prepandemic cohort comprised 4192 women with similar sociodemographic characteristics. In the prepandemic cohort, VPTB risk was 4.4% (20 of 451) and PTB risk was 14.4% (65 of 451) among Black infants compared with 0.8% (17 of 2188) VPTB risk and 7.1% (156 of 2188) PTB risk among White infants. In the pandemic cohort, VPTB risk was 4.3% (21 of 491) and PTB risk was 13.2% (65 of 491) among Black infants compared with 0.5% (10 of 1994) VPTB risk and 7.0% (240 of 1994) PTB risk among White infants. The DID estimators indicated that no increase in Black vs White disparities were found (DID estimator for VPTB, 0.1 additional cases per 100 [95% CI, -2.5 to 2.8]; DID estimator for PTB, 1.1 fewer case per 100 [95% CI, -5.8 to 3.6]). The results were comparable in covariate-adjusted models when limiting the population to women who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. No change was detected in Latina vs White PTB disparities during the pandemic. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of women who gave birth in New York City during the COVID-19 pandemic, no evidence was found for increased racial/ethnic disparities in PTB, among women who tested positive or tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.


Asunto(s)
Afroamericanos , Edad Gestacional , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Hispanoamericanos , Pandemias , Nacimiento Prematuro/etnología , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Transversales , Grupo de Ascendencia Continental Europea , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Embarazo , Nacimiento Prematuro/virología , Adulto Joven
4.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(3): e214302, 2021 03 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33749770

RESUMEN

Importance: Accumulating evidence suggests that children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are more likely to manifest mild symptoms and are at a lower risk of developing severe respiratory disease compared with adults. It remains unknown how the immune response in children differs from that of adolescents and adults. Objective: To investigate the association of age with the quantity and quality of SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used 31 426 SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results from pediatric and adult patients. Data were collected from a New York City hospital from April 9 to August 31, 2020. The semiquantitative immunoglobin (Ig) G levels were compared between 85 pediatric and 3648 adult patients. Further analysis of SARS-CoV-2 antibody profiles was performed on sera from 126 patients aged 1 to 24 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity rates and IgG levels were evaluated in patients from a wide range of age groups (1-102 years). SARS-CoV-2 IgG level, total antibody (TAb) level, surrogate neutralizing antibody (SNAb) activity, and antibody binding avidity were compared between children (aged 1-10 years), adolescents (aged 11-18 years), and young adults (aged 19-24 years). Results: Among 31 426 antibody test results (19 797 [63.0%] female patients), with 1194 pediatric patients (mean [SD] age, 11.0 [5.3] years) and 30 232 adult patients (mean [SD] age, 49.2 [17.1] years), the seroprevalence in the pediatric (197 [16.5%; 95% CI, 14.4%-18.7%]) and adult (5630 [18.6%; 95% CI, 18.2%-19.1%]) patient populations was similar. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG level showed a negative correlation with age in the pediatric population (r = -0.45, P < .001) and a moderate but positive correlation with age in adults (r = 0.24, P < .001). Patients aged 19 to 30 years exhibited the lowest IgG levels (eg, aged 25-30 years vs 1-10 years: 99 [44-180] relative fluorescence units [RFU] vs 443 [188-851] RFU). In the subset cohort aged 1 to 24 years, IgG, TAb, SNAb and avidity were negatively correlated with age (eg, IgG: r = -0.51; P < .001). Children exhibited higher median (IQR) IgG levels, TAb levels, and SNAb activity compared with adolescents (eg, IgG levels: 473 [233-656] RFU vs 191 [82-349] RFU; P < .001) and young adults (eg, IgG levels: 473 [233-656] RFU vs 85 [38-150] RFU; P < .001). Adolescents also exhibited higher median (IQR) TAb levels, IgG levels, and SNAb activity than young adults (eg, TAb levels: 961 [290-2074] RFU vs 370 [125-697]; P = .006). In addition, children had higher antibody binding avidity compared with young adults, but the difference was not significant. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that SARS-CoV-2 viral specific antibody response profiles are distinct in different age groups. Age-targeted strategies for disease screening and management as well as vaccine development may be warranted.


Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Afinidad de Anticuerpos/inmunología , Formación de Anticuerpos/inmunología , Factores de Edad , /epidemiología , /métodos , Niño , Correlación de Datos , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , /aislamiento & purificación
5.
Psychiatry Res ; 298: 113833, 2021 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33657449

RESUMEN

Some psychiatric hospitals have instituted mandatory COVID-19 testing for all patients referred for admission. Others have permitted patients to decline testing. Little is known about the rate of COVID-19 infection in acute psychiatric inpatients. Characterizing the proportion of infected patients who have an asymptomatic presentation will help inform policy regarding universal mandatory versus symptom-based or opt-out testing protocols. We determined the COVID-19 infection rate and frequency of asymptomatic presentation in 683 consecutively admitted patients during the surge in the New York City region between April 3rd, 2020 and June 8th, 2020. Among these psychiatric inpatients, there was a 9.8 % overall rate of COVID-19 infection. Of the COVID-19 infected patients, approximately 76.1 % (51/67) either had no COVID-19 symptoms or could not offer reliable history of symptoms at the time of admission. Had they not been identified by testing and triaged to a COVID-19 positive unit, they could have infected others, leading to institutional outbreak. These findings provide justification for psychiatric facilities to maintain universal mandatory testing policies, at least until community infection rates fall and remain at very low levels.


Asunto(s)
/normas , /epidemiología , Hospitales Psiquiátricos/normas , Trastornos Mentales/terapia , Admisión del Paciente/normas , Adulto , Comorbilidad , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Trastornos Mentales/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Derivación y Consulta , Triaje/normas
6.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 503, 2021 03 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33722226

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Governments worldwide recommended unprecedented measures to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As pressure mounted to scale back measures, understanding public priorities was critical. We assessed initial public adherence with and support for stay-at-home orders in nations and cities with different SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 death rates. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys were administered to representative samples of adults aged ≥18 years from regions with different SARS-CoV-2 prevalences from April 2-8, 2020. Regions included two nations [the United States (US-high prevalence) and Australia (AU-low prevalence)] and two US cities [New York City (NY-high prevalence) and Los Angeles (LA-low prevalence)]. Regional SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 prevalence (cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 deaths) as of April 8, 2020: US (363,321, 10,845), AU (5956, 45), NY (81,803, 4571), LA (7530, 198). Of 8718 eligible potential respondents, 5573 (response rate, 63.9%) completed surveys. Median age was 47 years (range, 18-89); 3039 (54.5%) were female. RESULTS: Of 5573 total respondents, 4560 (81.8%) reported adherence with recommended quarantine or stay-at-home policies (range of samples, 75.5-88.2%). Additionally, 29.1% of respondents screened positive for anxiety or depression symptoms (range of samples, 28.6-32.0%), with higher prevalences among those of younger age, female gender, and those in quarantine or staying at home most of the time versus those who did not report these behaviours. Despite elevated prevalences of adverse mental health symptoms and significant life disruptions, 5022 respondents (90.1%) supported government-imposed stay-at-home orders (range of samples, 88.9-93.1%). Of these, 90.8% believed orders should last at least three more weeks or until public health or government officials recommended, with support spanning the political spectrum. CONCLUSIONS: Public adherence with COVID-19 mitigation policies was highly prevalent, in both highly-affected (US, NY) and minimally-affected regions (AU, LA). Despite disruption of respondents' lives, the vast majority supported continuation of extended stay-at-home orders. Despite common support, these two countries diverged in stringent mitigation implementation, which may have contributed to subsequent outcomes. These results reveal the importance of surveillance of public support for and adherence with such policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and for future infectious disease outbreaks.


Asunto(s)
/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Estilo de Vida , Opinión Pública , Cuarentena , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Australia/epidemiología , /mortalidad , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Los Angeles/epidemiología , Masculino , Salud Mental , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Salud Pública/legislación & jurisprudencia , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
13.
BMC Surg ; 21(1): 116, 2021 Mar 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33676485

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 forced our healthcare system in the Bronx, New York to cancel nearly all scheduled surgeries. We developed a framework for prioritizing postponed urologic surgeries that was utilized once cases were permitted to be rescheduled. As many parts of our country experience first and second waves of this pandemic, our framework may serve as a resource for other centers experiencing restrictions on the scheduling of elective urologic surgeries. METHODS: As the COVID-19 pandemic started and peaked in New York, almost all of our scheduled urologic surgeries were cancelled. Each Urologist was asked to rank his/her cancelled surgeries by priority (Level 1-least urgent; Level 2-moderately urgent; Level 3-most urgent). A committee of Urologists assigned a subclass to Level 3 and 2 cases (3a-least urgent; 3b-moderately urgent; 3c-most urgent; 2a-lower priority; 2b-higher priority). The committee then reviewed cases by urgency to derive a final priority ranking. RESULTS: A total of 478 total urologic surgeries were canceled and categorized: 250 Level 1, 130 Level 2, 98 Level 3 (73 adult, 25 pediatric). Level 3c involved renal cell carcinoma ≥ T2b, high-grade bladder urothelial carcinoma, adrenal mass/cancer > 6 cm, testicular cancer requiring radical orchiectomy, and penile cancer. Level 3b involved T2a renal masses requiring nephrectomy, while high-risk prostate cancer and symptomatic nephrolithiasis were classified as 3a. Level 2 included testicular cancer requiring retroperitoneal lymph node dissection and complicated benign prostatic hyperplasia. Surgeries for urologic reconstruction, non-complicated nephrolithiasis, erectile dysfunction, and urinary incontinence were considered Level 1. CONCLUSIONS: Our disease-specific approach to surgical rescheduling offers appropriate guidance for triaging urologic surgeries. Our system can provide guidance to other institutions as COVID-19 cases surge in different regions and with the growing second wave.


Asunto(s)
Triaje , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Urológicos , Adulto , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Triaje/métodos
14.
Chaos ; 31(2): 021101, 2021 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33653072

RESUMEN

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected more than 62 million people worldwide. Control responses varied across countries with different outcomes in terms of epidemic size and social disruption. This study presents an age-specific susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery-death model that considers the unique characteristics of COVID-19 to examine the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in New York City (NYC). Numerical experiments from our model show that the control policies implemented in NYC reduced the number of infections by 72% [interquartile range (IQR) 53-95] and the number of deceased cases by 76% (IQR 58-96) by the end of 2020. Among all the NPIs, social distancing for the entire population and protection for the elderly in public facilities is the most effective control measure in reducing severe infections and deceased cases. School closure policy may not work as effectively as one might expect in terms of reducing the number of deceased cases. Our simulation results provide novel insights into the city-specific implementation of NPIs with minimal social disruption considering the locations and population characteristics.


Asunto(s)
/prevención & control , Modelos Biológicos , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología
16.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(2): e2037069, 2021 02 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33533933

RESUMEN

Importance: New York State has been an epicenter for both the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and HIV/AIDS epidemics. Persons living with diagnosed HIV may be more prone to COVID-19 infection and severe outcomes, yet few studies have assessed this possibility at a population level. Objective: To evaluate the association between HIV diagnosis and COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and in-hospital death in New York State. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study, conducted in New York State, including New York City, between March 1 and June 15, 2020, matched data from HIV surveillance, COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed diagnoses, and hospitalization databases to provide a full population-level comparison of COVID-19 outcomes between persons living with diagnosed HIV and persons living without diagnosed HIV. Exposures: Diagnosis of HIV infection through December 31, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and in-hospital death. COVID-19 diagnoses, hospitalizations, and in-hospital death rates comparing persons living with diagnosed HIV with persons living without dianosed HIV were computed, with unadjusted rate ratios and indirect standardized rate ratios (sRR), adjusting for sex, age, and region. Adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) for outcomes specific to persons living with diagnosed HIV were assessed by age, sex, region, race/ethnicity, transmission risk, and CD4+ T-cell count-defined HIV disease stage, using Poisson regression models. Results: A total of 2988 persons living with diagnosed HIV (2109 men [70.6%]; 2409 living in New York City [80.6%]; mean [SD] age, 54.0 [13.3] years) received a diagnosis of COVID-19. Of these persons living with diagnosed HIV, 896 were hospitalized and 207 died in the hospital through June 15, 2020. After standardization, persons living with diagnosed HIV and persons living without diagnosed HIV had similar diagnosis rates (sRR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.97]), but persons living with diagnosed HIV were hospitalized more than persons living without diagnosed HIV, per population (sRR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]) and among those diagnosed (sRR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.37-1.56]). Elevated mortality among persons living with diagnosed HIV was observed per population (sRR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.07-1.40]) and among those diagnosed (sRR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.13-1.48]) but not among those hospitalized (sRR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.83-1.09]). Among persons living with diagnosed HIV, non-Hispanic Black individuals (aRR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.40-1.81]) and Hispanic individuals (aRR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.83-2.37]) were more likely to receive a diagnosis of COVID-19 than White individuals, but they were not more likely to be hospitalized once they received a diagnosis or to die once hospitalized. Hospitalization risk increased with disease progression to HIV stage 2 (aRR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.11-1.49]) and stage 3 (aRR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.38-2.07]) relative to stage 1. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, persons living with diagnosed HIV experienced poorer COVID-related outcomes relative to persons living without diagnosed HIV; Previous HIV diagnosis was associated with higher rates of severe disease requiring hospitalization, and hospitalization risk increased with progression of HIV disease stage.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Comorbilidad , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Hospitalización , Hospitales , Pandemias , Adulto , Afroamericanos , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Epidemias , Grupo de Ascendencia Continental Europea , Femenino , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Hispanoamericanos , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , New York/epidemiología , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología
17.
Psychiatry Res ; 298: 113778, 2021 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33550176

RESUMEN

Initial reports suggest that mental health problems were elevated early in the COVID-19 pandemic. However, few studies have followed-up participants as the pandemic evolved and examined both between and within person predictors of symptom trajectories. In the current study, adolescents and young adults (N=532) in New York were surveyed monthly between March 27th and July 14th, 2020, a period spanning the first peak and subsequent decline in COVID-19 infection rates in the region. Surveys assessed symptoms of depression and anxiety using the Child Depression Inventory and the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Disorders, as well as experiences related to the pandemic. Multilevel growth modeling indicated that symptoms of depression and anxiety peaked around late April/early May and then decreased through May-July. Some pandemic experiences followed a similar quadratic trajectory, while others decreased linearly across the study. Specific relationships emerged between some types of pandemic experiences and depression and anxiety symptoms. While symptoms of depression and anxiety in youth may have been elevated early in the pandemic, these findings suggest they subsided across Spring-Summer of 2020, with higher levels of both corresponding to a period of peak infection rates and decreases paralleling the decline in pandemic experiences and COVID-19 infection rates.


Asunto(s)
Trastornos de Ansiedad/epidemiología , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Depresión/epidemiología , Trastorno Depresivo/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año , Adulto Joven
19.
Nurs Adm Q ; 45(2): 126-134, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33570880

RESUMEN

This article describes how a national nursing association and a major academic medical center responded to the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic during the first wave of the outbreak in the United States (January to August 2020). The organizations share their lived experiences as they quickly found themselves at the forefront of the crisis. The article discusses how early warning signs from a world away sparked collaboration, innovation, and action that grew to a coordinated, organization-wide response. It also explores how leaders in 2 distinct but interrelated environments rose to the challenge to leverage the best their organizations had to offer, relying on the expertise of each to navigate changes that were made to almost every aspect of work. From tentative first steps to rapid implementation of innovative policies and procedures, the organizations share lessons learned and benefits reaped. The article includes practical crisis response strategies for the nursing profession and health care systems moving forward.


Asunto(s)
Centros Médicos Académicos/organización & administración , American Nurses' Association/organización & administración , Prestación de Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Liderazgo , Creación de Capacidad/organización & administración , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Pandemias
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(9)2021 03 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33571106

RESUMEN

The contributions of asymptomatic infections to herd immunity and community transmission are key to the resurgence and control of COVID-19, but are difficult to estimate using current models that ignore changes in testing capacity. Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed. Asymptomatic infections contribute substantially to herd immunity, and to community transmission together with presymptomatic ones. If asymptomatic infections transmit at similar rates as symptomatic ones, the overall reproductive number across all classes is larger than often assumed, with estimates ranging from 3.2 to 4.4. If they transmit poorly, then symptomatic cases have a larger reproductive number ranging from 3.9 to 8.1. Even in this regime, presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases together comprise at least 50% of the force of infection at the outbreak peak. We find no regimes in which all infection subpopulations have reproductive numbers lower than three. These findings elucidate the uncertainty that current case and serology data cannot resolve, despite consideration of different model structures. They also emphasize how temporal data on testing can reduce and better define this uncertainty, as we move forward through longer surveillance and second epidemic waves. Complementary information is required to determine the transmissibility of asymptomatic cases, which we discuss. Regardless, current assumptions about the basic reproductive number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) should be reconsidered.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , /transmisión , Número Básico de Reproducción , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología
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