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Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature's contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.
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Biodiversidad , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Humanos , Ecosistema , Clima , Cambio Climático , CarbonoRESUMEN
Climate warming is altering life cycles of ectotherms by advancing phenology and decreasing generation times. Theoretical models provide powerful tools to investigate these effects of climate warming on consumer-resource population dynamics. Yet, existing theory primarily considers organisms with simplified life histories in constant temperature environments, making it difficult to predict how warming will affect organisms with complex life cycles in seasonal environments. We develop a size-structured consumer-resource model with seasonal temperature dependence, parameterized for a freshwater insect consuming zooplankton. We simulate how climate warming in a seasonal environment could alter a key life-history trait of the consumer, number of generations per year, mediating responses of consumer-resource population sizes and consumer persistence. We find that, with warming, consumer population sizes increase through multiple mechanisms. First, warming decreases generation times by increasing rates of resource ingestion and growth and/or lengthening the growing season. Second, these life-history changes shorten the juvenile stage, increasing the number of emerging adults and population-level reproduction. Unstructured models with similar assumptions found that warming destabilized consumer-resource dynamics. By contrast, our size-structured model predicts stability and consumer persistence. Our study suggests that, in seasonal environments experiencing climate warming, life-history changes that lead to shorter generation times could delay population extinctions.
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Clima , Modelos Teóricos , Animales , Temperatura , Estaciones del Año , Cambio Climático , Estadios del Ciclo de VidaRESUMEN
Using an anonymous self-report survey of 350 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel, this study investigated the effect of perceptions of the ethicality of one's immediate supervisor (supervisor ethics), right-wing authoritarianism (RWA), and ethical climate on self-reported unethical behavior in the form of discrimination and obeying an unlawful command (past behavior, behavioral intentions). As well, we investigated how supervisor ethics and RWA interact when predicting unethical behavior, and whether ethical climate mediated the relation between supervisor ethics and self-reported unethical behavior. Unethical behavior depended on perceptions of the ethicality of one's supervisor and RWA. RWA predicted discrimination toward a gay man (behavioral intentions), and supervisor ethics predicted discrimination against outgroups of people, and obedience of an unlawful command (past behavior). As well, the effects of ethical supervision on discrimination (past behavior, behavioral intentions) depended on participants' level of RWA . Finally, ethical climate mediated the relation between supervisor ethics and obeying an unlawful command, such that higher perceptions of supervisor ethics led to a higher ethical climate, which led to less obedience of an unlawful command in the past. This suggests that leaders can affect the ethical climate of on organization, which in turn affects ethical behavior of followers.
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Personal Militar , Masculino , Humanos , Autoritarismo , Canadá , Clima , IntenciónRESUMEN
Promoting research integrity practices among doctoral candidates and early career researchers is important for creating a stable and healthy research environment. In addition to teaching specific technical skills and knowledge, research supervisors and mentors inevitably convey research practices, both directly and indirectly. We conducted a scoping review to summarise the role of mentors in fostering research integrity practices, mentors' responsibilities and the role that institutions have in supporting good mentorship. We searched five different databases and included studies that used an empirical methodology. After searching, a total of 1199 articles were retrieved, of which 24 were eligible for analysis. After snowballing, a total of 35 empirical articles were selected. The review discusses various themes such as the importance of good mentorship, poor mentorship practices, virtues and qualities of mentors, responsibilities and activities of mentors, group mentoring and responsibilities of the institution in supporting good mentorship. This review demonstrates the importance of mentors instilling responsible research practices and attitudes, and promoting research integrity among their mentees. Mentors are responsible for providing explicit guidance and for acting as good role models. The review highlights how poor mentorship can have a bad impact on the research climate. In addition, the review highlights the important influence that institutions can have in supporting mentorship.
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Tutoría , Mentores , Humanos , Clima , Exactitud de los Datos , Bases de Datos FactualesRESUMEN
The Algerian Saharan rangelands are an arid ecosystem characterized by limited soil, water, and vegetation resources, which make it very susceptible to degradation. This research focuses on the diachronic assessment and multi-temporal mapping of the degradation of steppe vegetation in the south of Biskra during the period 1987-2019, using remote sensing data (MSAVI index), for extracting spatiotemporal data to monitor the rangeland vegetation dynamics. We examined demographic evolution, number of livestock, and land use from quantitative data. The results show that during this period, the landscape of the region changed considerably. The area of rangelands decreased from 19,939 ha (1987) to 3605 ha (2019), where 58% of the pre-existing vegetation was transformed into bare soil. This study confirmed that the rangeland vegetation health is closely related to climate, and its degradation is mainly due to the recurrence, duration, severity, and magnitude of drought events. Manmade activities were also a determinant factor of long-term degradation of the rangeland, such as the expansion of new land development areas that increased from 3754 ha (1987) to 24,410 ha (2019). This trend was found throughout the region, including predominantly pastoral regions such as Oumache and El Haouch, leading to overgrazing with a loss of about 2% of vegetation cover. All these factors have led to a severe and continuous degradation of pastoral resources in a vulnerable environment. The preservation of these limited resources requires appropriate management of the ecosystem and a rational exploitation of its vegetation, soil, and water resources.
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Ecosistema , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Argelia , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Clima , SueloRESUMEN
During space flight, the immune system function of the body is disrupted due to continuous weightlessness, radiation and other factors, resulting in an increased incidence of infectious diseases in astronauts. However, the effect of space flight on the immune system at the molecular level is unknown. The aim of this study was to identify key genes and pathways of spatial environmental effects on the spleen and thymus using bioinformatics analysis of the GEO dataset. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the spleen and thymus of mice preflight and postflight were screened by comprehensive analysis of gene expression profile data. Then, GO enrichment analysis of DEGs was performed to determine the biological role of DEGs. A protein-protein interaction network was used to identify hub genes. In addition, transcription factors in DEGs were screened, and a TF-target regulatory network was constructed. Finally, immune infiltration analysis was performed on spleen and thymus samples from mice. The results showed that DEGs in the spleen and thymus are mainly involved in immune responses and in biological processes related to platelets. Six hub genes were identified in the spleen and 13 in the thymus, of which Ttr, Aldob, Gc and Fabp1 were common to both tissues. In addition, 5 transcription factors were present in the DEGs of the spleen, and 9 transcription factors were present in the DEGs of the thymus. The spatial environment can influence the degree of immune cell infiltration in the spleen and thymus. Our study bioinformatically analyzed the GEO dataset of spacefaring mice to identify the effects of the space environment on the immune system and the genes that play key roles, providing insights for the treatment of spaceflight-induced immune system disorders.
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Vuelo Espacial , Bazo , Animales , Ratones , Timo , Clima , Biología ComputacionalRESUMEN
AbstractHost-pathogen models usually explain the coexistence of pathogen strains by invoking population structure, meaning host or pathogen variation across space or individuals; most models, however, neglect the seasonal variation typical of host-pathogen interactions in nature. To determine the extent to which seasonality can drive pathogen coexistence, we constructed a model in which seasonal host reproduction fuels annual epidemics, which are in turn followed by interepidemic periods with no transmission, a pattern seen in many host-pathogen interactions in nature. In our model, a pathogen strain with low infectiousness and high interepidemic survival can coexist with a strain with high infectiousness and low interepidemic survival: seasonality thus permits coexistence. This seemingly simple type of coexistence can be achieved through two very different pathogen strategies, but understanding these strategies requires novel mathematical analyses. Standard analyses show that coexistence can occur if the competing strains differ in terms of R0, the number of new infections per infectious life span in a completely susceptible population. A novel mathematical method of analyzing transient dynamics, however, allows us to show that coexistence can also occur if one strain has a lower R0 than its competitor but a higher initial fitness λ0, the number of new infections per unit time in a completely susceptible population. This second strategy allows coexisting pathogens to have quite similar phenotypes, whereas coexistence that depends on differences in R0 values requires that coexisting pathogens have very different phenotypes. Our novel analytic method suggests that transient dynamics are an overlooked force in host-pathogen interactions.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno , Clima , Modelos BiológicosRESUMEN
Water footprint (WF) assessments have become a significant tool for the sustainable management in recent years. Effective rainfall (Peff) is a critical indicator for characterizing soil moisture (green water, WFgreen) and calculating irrigation requirements (blue water, WFblue). However, majority of the water footprint analyses employ empirical or numerical models to predict Peff, and the number of studies for experimental validation of these models are quite insufficient. The main scope of this study is to test the performance of commonly used Peff estimation models in relation to the soil water balance (SWB) of an experimental site. Accordingly, the daily and monthly soil water budget is estimated from a maize field which is characterized as semi-arid land with continental climate (Ankara, Turkey), equipped with moisture sensors. Then, Peff, WFgreen, and WFblue parameters are calculated using FP, US-BR, USDA-SCS, FAO/AGLW, CROPWAT, and SuET methods and compared with SWB method. Employed models were highly variable. CROPWAT and US-BR predictions were the most accurate. In majority of months, the CROPWAT method estimated the Peff with a maximum deviation of 5% from the SWB method. In addition, the CROPWAT method predicted blue WF with an error less than 1%. The widely utilized USDA-SCS approach did not produce expected results. The FAO-AGLW method provided the lowest performance for each parameter. We also find that the errors in estimating Peff in semi-arid conditions cause green and blue WF outputs to be quite less accurate than the dry and humid cases. This study provides one of the most detailed assessments about the impact of effective rainfall on the blue and green WF results with high temporal resolution. The findings of this study are important for the accuracy and performance of the formulae used in Peff estimations and to develop more precise blue and green WF analyses in the future.
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Agricultura , Agua , Agua/análisis , Agricultura/métodos , Clima , Suelo , Recursos HídricosRESUMEN
This study integrated dynamic models and statistical methods to design a novel macroanalysis approach to judge the climate impacts. First, the incidence difference across Köppen-Geiger climate regions was used to determine the four risk areas. Then, the effective influence of climate factors was proved according to the non-climate factors' non-difference among the risk areas, multi-source non-major component data assisting the proof. It is found that cold steppe arid climates and wet temperate climates are more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 among human beings. Although the results verified that the global optimum temperature was around 10 °C, and the average humidity was 71%, there was evident heterogeneity among different climate risk areas. The first-grade and fourth-grade risk regions in the Northern Hemisphere and fourth-grade risk regions in the Southern Hemisphere are more sensitive to temperature. However, the third-grade risk region in the Southern Hemisphere is more sensitive to relative humidity. The Southern Hemisphere's third-grade and fourth-grade risk regions are more sensitive to precipitation.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Clima , TemperaturaRESUMEN
This study aimed to evaluate the thermoregulatory capacity and performance of Saanen goat kids from birth to weaning in a hot climate. Twelve newborn males and female goat kids with an initial body weight of 4.17 ± 0.81 kg were used. Physiological responses, climatic variables, and biometric traits data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis techniques were used. Heart rate (HR) was high up to the 6th week of life, with a reduction from the 7th week on (P < 0.001). Rectal temperature (RT) was lower in the first 2 weeks (P < 0.001), with an increase and stabilization occurring in the 7th and 8th weeks. Coat surface temperature (ST) was more activated from the 5th week onwards (P < 0.001). Body weight (BW) and withers height (WH) were higher in later weeks of the calving phase with a linear effect (P < 0.001). The first principal component demonstrated the relationship of sensible heat dissipation × body area of the goat kids; the second component shows the relationship of meteorological data with RT, having a positive relationship between RT with RH and negative with AT, and the third component points to the association of RR and HR. Of the animals, 81.3% were correctly classified in their group of origin in discriminant canonical analysis, with emphasis on the classification of the kids in the 1st-2nd and 3rd-4th weeks (classification percentage Æ© = 95.8%). It is concluded that (i) newborn kids activate latent mechanisms to maintain their homoeothermic during the first 2 weeks of life, and as they grow, they use sensitive heat loss processes, especially from the 5th week of life onwards and (ii) male and female goats do not show sexual dimorphism effect on body performance and body morphometric measurements up to 60 days of life.
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Cabras , Parto , Embarazo , Masculino , Femenino , Animales , Destete , Cabras/fisiología , Peso Corporal , ClimaRESUMEN
Climate and land use changes together are altering the particle content of desert dust storms on regional and local scales. These storms now carry a wide variety of pollutants and pathogens arising from urbanization, industrialization, mass transportation, warfare, or aerosolized waste in locations worldwide where deserts are intertwined with built infrastructure, transportation centers, and high-density human habitation. Accordingly, the modern desert dust storm has an anthropogenic particle load which presumably sets it apart from pre-industrial dust storms. Evidence for how particle content for modern dust storms is changing over the Arabian Peninsula holds relevance because dust storms are now more frequent and more severe. Furthermore, the Arabian Peninsula has asthma rates which are the highest worldwide. How the modern desert dust storm contributes to asthma and human health is a nascent issue. Meanwhile, public health decisions can benefit from a climate × health framework for dust storms, as proposed here. An imperative is testing each dust storm's particle content type, and for this, we propose the A-B-C-X model. Sampling a dust storm for its particle content data and then archiving samples for future analyses is advised. A storm's particle content data, once combined with its atmospheric data, allows a particle's source, transport, and deposition to be determined. In closing, the modern desert dust storm's changing particle content has far-reaching consequences for public health, transboundary issues, and international climate dialog. SIGNIFICANCE : Locally and regionally sourced particle pollution is a growing problem in deserts worldwide. Proposed here is a climate × health framework for studying how dust storm particles, entrained from both natural and engineered systems, may be contributing to declining human respiratory health.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Asma , Humanos , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Clima , Polvo/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Clima DesérticoRESUMEN
In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed's sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest.
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Clima , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Humanos , Bosques , Agricultura , Temperatura , Cambio ClimáticoRESUMEN
Trombe wall is a passive strategy that reduces the energy consumption in buildings and helps for sustainable development of the residential sector. Applying these walls is very important in areas that need heating load in winter. This study evaluates a set of Trombe walls for the energy management of a residential building under real conditions in Binalood region with a cold and dry climate. In order to study the potentials of the Trombe wall, four different designs, including cubic Trombe wall with rectangular structure and three-sided glass, Trombe wall with trapezoidal structure and three-sided glass, Trombe wall with trapezoidal structure and four-sided glass, and Trombe wall with thicker storage wall, trapezoidal structure, and three-sided glass, for Trombe wall are considered. Trombe walls of all four suggested designs are exposed to outdoor conditions and installed at 17 places on the southern walls of the residential building. The results show that the most optimal design, i.e., Trombe wall with thicker storage wall, trapezoidal structure, and three-sided glass, leads to the greatest decrease (1637 kWh) in heating load in January. In addition, this design of the Trombe wall has the greatest effect in increasing the indoor air temperature among other Trombe walls investigated in this study. The Trombe wall with thicker storage wall, trapezoidal structure, and three-sided glass with a storage wall thickness of 40 cm is able to reduce the heating load of the building by 5.59 MWh in 5 months. This plan reduces the energy demand of the building by 8% more than the conventional structure of Trombe wall.
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Clima , Desarrollo Sostenible , Frío , Temperatura , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
The root-associated microbiota represents an untapped reservoir of beneficial functions for plants. A new study begins unravelling the host genetic determinants governing these interactions across environments, which will be a key step towards the development of novel climate-smart crops.
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Productos Agrícolas , Microbiota , ClimaRESUMEN
The Negev Highlands arid region (southern Levant) shows evidence of sharp settlement fluctuations, with several periods of strong human activity separated by centuries with no evidence of sedentary life. In this study, we used the palynological method in order to shed light on the region's demographic history in the Bronze and Iron Ages. Fifty-four samples of pollen were collected and analyzed from secure archaeological contexts in four Negev Highlands sites: Nahal Boqer 66, dated to the Early Bronze Age and Early Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 3200-2200 BCE); Ein Ziq, dated to the Early Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 2500-2200 BCE); Mashabe Sade, dated to the Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 2500-2000 BCE); and Haroa, dated to the Iron Age IIA (ca. late 10th through 9th centuries BCE). Our study revealed no evidence of cereal cultivation, with some hints that the inhabitants' diets may have included plants gathered from the wild. Only one of the sites, Nahal Boqer 66, showed micro-indicators of animal dung remains, suggesting that the inhabitants herded animals. The palynological evidence did, however, emphasize that the livestock there were not fed or supplemented with agricultural by-products but rather grazed freely on wild vegetation. The pollen data also suggest that all four sites were occupied only during late winter and spring. The activity in the Negev Highlands during the third millennium BCE was probably related to the copper industry in the Arabah and to copper transportation to settled neighboring lands, especially Egypt. A relatively humid climate supported the trade through the Negev Highlands. Deterioration in both climate conditions and settlement activity was documented in the second half of the Intermediate Bronze Age.
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Agricultura , Cobre , Animales , Humanos , Israel , Arqueología , ClimaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) is known to peak in winter months. This is likely influenced by seasonality of commonly associated acute illnesses. We set out to assess seasonal mortality trends for patients who develop AKI across the English National Health Service (NHS) and to better understand associations with patient 'case-mix'. METHODS: The study cohort included all hospitalised adult patients in England who triggered a biochemical AKI alert in 2017. We modelled the impact of season on 30-day mortality using multivariable logistic regression; adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), primary diagnosis, comorbidity (RCCI), elective/emergency admission, peak AKI stage and community/hospital acquired AKI. Seasonal odds ratios for AKI mortality were then calculated and compared across individual NHS hospital trusts. RESULTS: The crude 30-day mortality for hospitalised AKI patients was 33% higher in winter compared to summer. Case-mix adjustment for a wide range of clinical and demographic factors did not fully explain excess winter mortality. The adjusted odds ratio of patients dying in winter vs. summer was 1.25 (1.22-1.29), this was higher than for Autumn and Spring vs. Summer, 1.09 (1.06-1.12) and 1.07 (1.04-1.11) respectively and varied across different NHS trusts (9 out of 90 centres outliers). CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated an excess winter mortality risk for hospitalised patients with AKI across the English NHS, which could not be fully explained by seasonal variation in patient case-mix. Whilst the explanation for worse winter outcomes is not clear, unaccounted differences including 'winter-pressures' merit further investigation.
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Lesión Renal Aguda , Medicina Estatal , Adulto , Humanos , Estaciones del Año , Inglaterra/epidemiología , ClimaRESUMEN
Extreme climate events constitute a major risk to global food production. Among these, extreme rainfall is often dismissed from historical analyses and future projections, the impacts and mechanisms of which remain poorly understood. Here we used long-term nationwide observations and multi-level rainfall manipulative experiments to explore the magnitude and mechanisms of extreme rainfall impacts on rice yield in China. We find that rice yield reductions due to extreme rainfall were comparable to those induced by extreme heat over the last two decades, reaching 7.6 ± 0.9% (one standard error) according to nationwide observations and 8.1 ± 1.1% according to the crop model incorporating the mechanisms revealed from manipulative experiments. Extreme rainfall reduces rice yield mainly by limiting nitrogen availability for tillering that lowers per-area effective panicles and by exerting physical disturbance on pollination that declines per-panicle filled grains. Considering these mechanisms, we projected ~8% additional yield reduction due to extreme rainfall under warmer climate by the end of the century. These findings demonstrate that it is critical to account for extreme rainfall in food security assessments.
