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1.
Isr J Health Policy Res ; 10(1): 52, 2021 09 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34474685

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at exploring the relationships between physical activity, weight control, and psycho-social aspects of the COVID-19 lockdown, which have characterized the Israeli population's behavior during the COVID-19 global crisis. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey research. METHODS: Participants included 1855 men and women aged 18 and above, from different regions in the country and representing different sectors. They were recruited through the social media in a "snowball" sampling, and filled out a self-administered six-part survey: Demographic background, the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), the positive and negative affect scales (PANAS), the Conor and Davidson resilience scale, a questionnaire for measuring depressive symptoms, and questions regarding weight change based on the Israeli National Health and Nutrition (MABAT) survey. RESULTS: Routine physical activity (PA) was reported by 76.3% of the participants before the lockdown, 19.3% stopped exercising during this period, and 9.3% began exercising during the lockdown. The participants who were physically active during the lockdown period reported a higher level of resilience and positive feelings, and a lower level of depression, compared with those who were not physically active. People who were physically active during the lockdown maintained their weight compared with those who were inactive. Concerning weight change, 44.8% of the respondents maintained their weight, and a higher percentage of people reported weight gain than those who reported weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous PA before and during the COVID-19 lockdown were associated with higher resilience and positive emotions, and depressive symptoms, in people aged 18 and above. Although a causal link cannot be established, in light of the results of the present study, encouraging physical activity may contribute to improving mental health and a sense of self-efficacy, as well as to maintaining weight during a crisis.


Asunto(s)
Peso Corporal/fisiología , COVID-19 , Ejercicio Físico/fisiología , Salud Mental , Adolescente , Adulto , Afecto , Anciano , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Estudios Transversales , Emociones , Femenino , Humanos , Israel , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Resiliencia Psicológica , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adulto Joven
2.
BMJ ; 374: n2060, 2021 09 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34470747

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and severe covid-19 among teachers and their household members, overall and compared with healthcare workers and adults of working age in the general population. DESIGN: Population based nested case-control study. SETTING: Scotland, March 2020 to July 2021, during defined periods of school closures and full openings in response to covid-19. PARTICIPANTS: All cases of covid-19 in adults aged 21 to 65 (n=132 420) and a random sample of controls matched on age, sex, and general practice (n=1 306 566). Adults were identified as actively teaching in a Scottish school by the General Teaching Council for Scotland, and their household members were identified through the unique property reference number. The comparator groups were adults identified as healthcare workers in Scotland, their household members, and the remaining general population of working age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was hospital admission with covid-19, defined as having a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 during hospital admission, being admitted to hospital within 28 days of a positive test result, or receiving a diagnosis of covid-19 on discharge from hospital. Severe covid-19 was defined as being admitted to intensive care or dying within 28 days of a positive test result or assigned covid-19 as a cause of death. RESULTS: Most teachers were young (mean age 42), were women (80%), and had no comorbidities (84%). The risk (cumulative incidence) of hospital admission with covid-19 was <1% for all adults of working age in the general population. Over the study period, in conditional logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, general practice, race/ethnicity, deprivation, number of comorbidities, and number of adults in the household, teachers showed a lower risk of hospital admission with covid-19 (rate ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.92) and of severe covid-19 (0.56, 0.33 to 0.97) than the general population. In the first period when schools in Scotland reopened, in autumn 2020, the rate ratio for hospital admission in teachers was 1.20 (0.89 to 1.61) and for severe covid-19 was 0.45 (0.13 to 1.55). The corresponding findings for household members of teachers were 0.91 (0.67 to 1.23) and 0.73 (0.37 to 1.44), and for patient facing healthcare workers were 2.08 (1.73 to 2.50) and 2.26 (1.43 to 3.59). Similar risks were seen for teachers in the second period, when schools reopened in summer 2021. These values were higher than those seen in spring/summer 2020, when schools were mostly closed. CONCLUSION: Compared with adults of working age who are otherwise similar, teachers and their household members were not found to be at increased risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and were found to be at lower risk of severe covid-19. These findings should reassure those who are engaged in face-to-face teaching.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Personal de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Maestros/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Anciano , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Femenino , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Medición de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2 , Escocia/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
3.
J Foot Ankle Res ; 14(1): 53, 2021 Sep 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34470650

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Occupational musculoskeletal injuries are prevalent in healthcare workers and are reported to be profession-specific. There is, however, a paucity of information around the injuries sustained from working as a podiatrist. This paper looks at the incidence of injury from working as a podiatrist, the aggravating factors to sustain these injuries and whether the changes in workload due to the COVID-19 pandemic altered the incidence. METHODS: A modified work based musculoskeletal injury questionnaire was distributed in the UK via podiatry led social media platforms. Open and Closed questions explored the demographics of the sample, perceived injury 12 months prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and then 6 months into the lockdown. Pre and post COVID-19 data were analysed for differences and thematic analysis was included to categorise reported experiences. RESULTS: 148 podiatrists representing 3 % of HCPC registered practitioners responded to the questionnaire. Employment status altered as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic with a 13 % reduction in those working full time. Environments also changed with domiciliary and telehealth significantly increasing (p > 0.00) and non-clinical roles being extended (p > 0.002). Pain frequency and intensity significantly (p > 0.04) increased as a result of the pandemic with shoulder pain being most frequent before lockdown altering to the neck during the lockdown. Two main themes were identified that were attributed to the causes of pain including physical demands and working in awkward spaces. CONCLUSIONS: Work-related musculoskeletal pain in podiatrists is common with the shoulder and neck being the most frequently affected. Changes in work practices due to the restrictions enforced from the COVID-19 pandemic increased the frequency and intensity of pain mostly associated with increased domiciliary and telehealth working environments.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Trabajo , COVID-19 , Dolor de Cuello , Enfermedades Profesionales , Podiatría , Dolor de Hombro , Accidentes de Trabajo/prevención & control , Accidentes de Trabajo/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Encuestas de Atención de la Salud/métodos , Encuestas de Atención de la Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Dolor de Cuello/epidemiología , Dolor de Cuello/etiología , Enfermedades Profesionales/clasificación , Enfermedades Profesionales/epidemiología , Podiatría/métodos , Podiatría/tendencias , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2 , Dolor de Hombro/epidemiología , Dolor de Hombro/etiología , Telemedicina/métodos , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Carga de Trabajo/estadística & datos numéricos , Lugar de Trabajo/normas
4.
South Med J ; 114(9): 597-602, 2021 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34480194

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatens vulnerable patient populations, resulting in immense pressures at the local, regional, national, and international levels to contain the virus. Laboratory-based studies demonstrate that masks may offer benefit in reducing the spread of droplet-based illnesses, but few data are available to assess mask effects via executive order on a population basis. We assess the effects of a county-wide mask order on per-population mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) utilization, and ventilator utilization in Bexar County, Texas. METHODS: We used publicly reported county-level data to perform a mixed-methods before-and-after analysis along with other sources of public data for analyses of covariance. We used a least-squares regression analysis to adjust for confounders. A Texas state-level mask order was issued on July 3, 2020, followed by a Bexar County-level order on July 15, 2020. We defined the control period as June 2 to July 2 and the postmask order period as July 8, 2020-August 12, 2020, with a 5-day gap to account for the median incubation period for cases; longer periods of 7 and 10 days were used for hospitalization and ICU admission/death, respectively. Data are reported on a per-100,000 population basis using respective US Census Bureau-reported populations. RESULTS: From June 2, 2020 through August 12, 2020, there were 40,771 reported cases of COVID-19 within Bexar County, with 470 total deaths. The average number of new cases per day within the county was 565.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 394.6-736.2). The average number of positive hospitalized patients was 754.1 (95% CI 657.2-851.0), in the ICU was 273.1 (95% CI 238.2-308.0), and on a ventilator was 170.5 (95% CI 146.4-194.6). The average deaths per day was 6.5 (95% CI 4.4-8.6). All of the measured outcomes were higher on average in the postmask period as were covariables included in the adjusted model. When adjusting for traffic activity, total statewide caseload, public health complaints, and mean temperature, the daily caseload, hospital bed occupancy, ICU bed occupancy, ventilator occupancy, and daily mortality remained higher in the postmask period. CONCLUSIONS: There was no reduction in per-population daily mortality, hospital bed, ICU bed, or ventilator occupancy of COVID-19-positive patients attributable to the implementation of a mask-wearing mandate.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/legislación & jurisprudencia , Recursos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Implementación de Plan de Salud , Política de Salud , Humanos , Gobierno Local , Máscaras , SARS-CoV-2 , Texas/epidemiología
5.
Recurso de Internet en Portugués | LIS - Localizador de Información en Salud | ID: lis-48323

RESUMEN

O Ministério da Saúde irá distribuir mais de 1 milhão de coleiras impregnadas com inseticida “deltametrina 4%” para controlar a disseminação da leishmaniose visceral (LV). A pasta investiu mais de R$ 16 milhões na aquisição das coleiras como parte do processo de incorporação do insumo no controle da doença no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).


Asunto(s)
Leishmaniasis Visceral/prevención & control , Estrategias de Salud , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(34)2021 08 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34408019

RESUMEN

Understanding how populations' daily behaviors change during the COVID-19 pandemic is critical to evaluating and adapting public health interventions. Here, we use residential electricity-consumption data to unravel behavioral changes within peoples' homes in this period. Based on smart energy-meter data from 10,246 households in Singapore, we find strong positive correlations between the progression of the pandemic in the city-state and the residential electricity consumption. In particular, we find that the daily new COVID-19 cases constitute the most dominant influencing factor on the electricity demand in the early stages of the pandemic, before a lockdown. However, this influence wanes once the lockdown is implemented, signifying that residents have settled into their new lifestyles under lockdown. These observations point to a proactive response from Singaporean residents-who increasingly stayed in or performed more activities at home during the evenings, despite there being no government mandates-a finding that surprisingly extends across all demographics. Overall, our study enables policymakers to close the loop by utilizing residential electricity usage as a measure of community response during unprecedented and disruptive events, such as a pandemic.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Conducta Cooperativa , Equipos y Suministros Eléctricos/estadística & datos numéricos , Electricidad , Cuarentena , COVID-19/transmisión , Composición Familiar , Humanos , Salud Pública , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Singapur/epidemiología
7.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0254660, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34407071

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice. However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance. To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions. We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Pandemias/prevención & control , COVID-19/prevención & control , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Alemania/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Estadísticos , Análisis Espacial
8.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0255654, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34407115

RESUMEN

We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test results significantly reduces total infections.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Estudiantes/psicología , Universidades/legislación & jurisprudencia , COVID-19/transmisión , Prueba de COVID-19 , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/legislación & jurisprudencia , Humanos , Exámenes Obligatorios , Máscaras , Modelos Estadísticos , Distanciamiento Físico
10.
Pan Afr Med J ; 39: 48, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34422171

RESUMEN

Lockdowns and just recently, the COVID-19 vaccines, are amongst the disease containment measures instituted globally to check the spread of COVID-19. Prolonged lockdowns are however, not sustainable in low resource economies like Nigeria, where up to 70% of her population live on less than a dollar a day, with the majority, either unemployed, or working in the private/informal sector and depending on daily earnings for survival. If the lockdown remains sustained, it would not be long before the largely poor citizens starve to death. Also, spending over US $3.9 billion on COVID-19 vaccines for more than 200 million Nigerians, as intended by the Nigerian government, is not plausible, given that neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) like Lassa fever, and other more common causes of morbidity and mortality, continue to kill more Nigerians than COVID-19. Public enlightenment of the populace on the need to strictly adhere to non-pharmacologic preventive measures, including social distancing, use of face masks, good personal hygiene, covering of the mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, frequent hand washing and sanitizing with alcohol-based hand-sanitizers and disinfection of surfaces, is what is sustainable, feasible and compatible with the economic reality in our setting. As Sir Robert Hutchison, the highly revered doyen of medicine, wrote in his petition over 85 years ago, "And from making the cure of the disease more grievous than the endurance of the same, Good Lord, deliver us", we must be careful not to make the cure of COVID-19 worse than COVID-19 itself.


Asunto(s)
Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/economía , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/economía , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Países en Desarrollo , Humanos , Higiene/normas , Máscaras , Nigeria , Distanciamiento Físico
11.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 4720, 2021 08 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34354055

RESUMEN

Forecasting the evolution of contagion dynamics is still an open problem to which mechanistic models only offer a partial answer. To remain mathematically or computationally tractable, these models must rely on simplifying assumptions, thereby limiting the quantitative accuracy of their predictions and the complexity of the dynamics they can model. Here, we propose a complementary approach based on deep learning where effective local mechanisms governing a dynamic on a network are learned from time series data. Our graph neural network architecture makes very few assumptions about the dynamics, and we demonstrate its accuracy using different contagion dynamics of increasing complexity. By allowing simulations on arbitrary network structures, our approach makes it possible to explore the properties of the learned dynamics beyond the training data. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our approach using real data of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain. Our results demonstrate how deep learning offers a new and complementary perspective to build effective models of contagion dynamics on networks.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Aprendizaje Profundo , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Predicción/métodos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , SARS-CoV-2 , España/epidemiología
12.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 4726, 2021 08 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34354078

RESUMEN

Latin America has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but estimations of rates of infections are very limited and lack the level of detail required to guide policy decisions. We implemented a COVID-19 sentinel surveillance study with 59,770 RT-PCR tests on mostly asymptomatic individuals and combine this data with administrative records on all detected cases to capture the spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogota from June 2020 to early March 2021. We describe various features of the pandemic that appear to be specific to a middle income countries. We find that, by March 2021, slightly more than half of the population in Bogota has been infected, despite only a small fraction of this population being detected. The initial buildup of immunity contributed to the containment of the pandemic in the first and second waves. We also show that the share of the population infected by March 2021 varies widely by occupation, socio-economic stratum, and location. This, in turn, has affected the dynamics of the spread with different groups being infected in the two waves.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Colombia/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Geografía , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Factores Socioeconómicos
13.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(8): e2119621, 2021 08 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34402891

RESUMEN

Importance: In 2020 and early 2021, the National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) opted to host football games in stadiums across the country. The in-person attendance of games varied with time and from county to county. There is currently no evidence on whether limited in-person attendance of games is associated with COVID-19 case numbers on a county-level. Objective: To assess whether NFL and NCAA football games with limited in-person attendance were associated with increased COVID-19 cases in the counties they were held compared with a matched set of counties. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this time-series cross-sectional study, every county hosting NFL or NCAA games with in-person attendance (treated group) in 2020 and 2021 was matched with a county that that did not host a game on the corresponding day but had an identical game history for up to 14 days prior (control group). A standard matching method was used to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control counties had similar population size, nonpharmaceutical interventions in place, and COVID-19 trends. The association of hosting games with in-person attendance with COVID-19 cases was assessed using a difference-in-difference estimator. Data were analyzed from August 29 to December 28, 2020. Exposures: Hosting NFL or NCAA games. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was estimation of new COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents at the county level reported up to 14 days after a game among counties with NFL and NCAA games with in-person attendance. Results: A total of 528 games with in-person attendance (101 NFL games [19.1%]; 427 NCAA games [80.9%]) were included. The matching algorithm returned 361 matching sets of counties. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) number of attendance for NFL games was 9949 (6000 to 13 797) people. The median number of attendance for NCAA games was not available, and attendance was recorded as a binary variable. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in treatment group counties hosting games was 26.14 (10.77-50.25) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in control group counties where no games were played was 24.11 (9.64-48.55) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The treatment effect size ranged from -5.17 to 4.72, with a mean (SD) of 1.21 (2.67) cases per 100 000 residents, within the 14-day period in all counties hosting the games, and the daily treatment effect trend remained relatively steady during this period. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study did not find a consistent increase in the daily COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents in counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with limited in-person attendance. These findings suggest that NFL and NCAA football games hosted with limited in-person attendance were not associated with substantial risk for increased local COVID-19 cases.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/estadística & datos numéricos , Salud Poblacional/estadística & datos numéricos , Vigilancia de Guardia , Instalaciones Deportivas y Recreativas/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/transmisión , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Estudios Transversales , Fútbol Americano , Humanos , Organizaciones sin Fines de Lucro , SARS-CoV-2 , Sociedades , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Universidades
14.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256241, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34388215

RESUMEN

The importance of researching public support for preventive policies have been amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a representative sample of the Hungarian population, we investigated the support for commonly used preventive measures (social distancing, hand hygiene and wearing masks) comparing two different policy tools (nudges and regulations). Because of the high risk and unfamiliarity of the pandemic, the respondents' risk perception and experience with the disease was also assessed. All preventive measures were generally supported and, contrary to the findings of previous nudge research, there was no clear pattern whether regulations or nudges are preferred. People with higher level of risk perception supported both types of policies more but slightly favoured the regulations. Those who had contact with the disease (either themselves or a close friend or family member contracting COVID-19) reported a higher level of risk perception. When the person themselves was afflicted, this higher levels of risk perception did not translate to a higher level of support, moreover, it even decreased support for the regulations according to regression analysis. In case of a loved one contracting the disease, there was an increased support for both types of measures, but that is explained by the higher risk perception.


Asunto(s)
Actitud , COVID-19/psicología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Opinión Pública , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Femenino , Humanos , Hungría , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Asunción de Riesgos
15.
Am J Law Med ; 47(2-3): 205-248, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34405780

RESUMEN

This Article presents the first comprehensive analysis of the contribution of behavioral science to the legal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the descriptive level, the Article shows how different psychological phenomena such as loss aversion and cultural cognition influenced the way policymakers and the public perceived the pandemic, and how such phenomena affected the design of laws and regulations responding to COVID-19. At the normative level, the Article compares nudges (i.e., choice-preserving, behaviorally informed tools that encourage people to behave as desired) and mandates (i.e., obligations backed by sanctions that dictate to people how they must behave). The Article argues that mandates rather than nudges should serve in most cases as the primary legal tool used to regulate behavior during a pandemic. Nonetheless, this Article highlights ways in which nudges can complement mandates.


Asunto(s)
Ciencias de la Conducta , COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Formulación de Políticas , Políticas de Control Social/legislación & jurisprudencia , Sesgo , Humanos , Motivación , SARS-CoV-2 , Cognición Social , Normas Sociales
16.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256014, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34415941

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Eradicated infectious diseases like smallpox can re-emerge through accident or the designs of bioterrorists, and cause heavy casualties. Presently, the populace is largely susceptible as only a small percentage is vaccinated, and their immunity is likely to have waned. And when the disease re-emerges, the susceptible individuals may be manipulated by disinformation on Social Media to refuse vaccines. Thus, a combination of countermeasures consisting of antiviral drugs and vaccines and a range of policies for their application need to be investigated. Opinions regarding whether to receive vaccines evolve over time through social exchanges via networks that overlap with but are not identical to the disease propagation networks. These couple the spread of the biological and information contagion and necessitate a joint investigation of the two. METHODS: We develop a computationally tractable metapopulation epidemiological model that captures the joint spatio-temporal evolution of an infectious disease (e.g., smallpox, COVID-19) and opinion dynamics. RESULTS: Considering smallpox, the computations based on the model show that opinion dynamics have a substantial impact on the fatality count. Towards understanding how perpetrators are likely to seed the infection, we identify a) the initial distribution of infected individuals that maximize the overall fatality count; and b) which habitation structures are more vulnerable to outbreaks. We assess the relative efficacy of different countermeasures and conclude that a combination of vaccines and drugs minimize the fatalities, and by itself, drugs reduce fatalities more than the vaccine. Accordingly, we assess the impact of increase in the supply of drugs and identify the most effective among a collection of policies for administering of drugs for various parameter combinations. Many of the observed patterns are stable to variations of a diverse set of parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide a quantitative foundation for various important elements of public health discourse that have largely been conducted qualitatively.


Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Modelos Teóricos , Opinión Pública , Viruela/prevención & control , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Mortalidad , Densidad de Población , Guerra Psicológica , Viruela/tratamiento farmacológico , Viruela/epidemiología , Viruela/transmisión , Vacuna contra Viruela/uso terapéutico , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Procesos Estocásticos , Negativa a la Vacunación/psicología
17.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2021: 8873059, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34426747

RESUMEN

When encountering the outbreak and early spreading of COVID-19, the Government of Japan imposed gradually upgraded restriction policies and declared the state of emergency in April 2020 for the first time. To evaluate the efficacy of the countering strategies in different periods, we constructed a SEIADR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-documented-recovered) model to simulate the cases and determined corresponding spreading coefficients. The effective reproduction number R t was obtained to evaluate the measures controlling the COVID-19 conducted by the Government of Japan during different stages. It was found that the strict containing strategies during the state of emergency period drastically inhibit the COVID-19 trend. R t was decreased to 1.1123 and 0.8911 in stages 4 and 5 (a state of emergency in April and May 2020) from 3.5736, 2.0126, 3.0672 in the previous three stages when the containing strategies were weak. The state of emergency was declared again in view of the second wave of massive infections in January 2021. We estimated the cumulative infected cases and additional days to contain the COVID-19 transmission for the second state of emergency using this model. R t was 1.028 which illustrated that the strategies were less effective than the previous state of emergency. Finally, the overall infected population was predicted using combined isolation and testing intensity; the effectiveness and the expected peak time were evaluated. If using the optimized control strategies in the current stage, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan could be controlled within 30 days. The total confirmed cases should reduce to less than 4.2 × 105 by April 2021. This model study suggested stricter isolating measures may be required to shorten the period of the state of emergency.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Urgencias Médicas , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Algoritmos , COVID-19/prevención & control , Prueba de COVID-19/métodos , Prueba de COVID-19/estadística & datos numéricos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/legislación & jurisprudencia , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/estadística & datos numéricos , Biología Computacional , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Japón/epidemiología , Análisis de los Mínimos Cuadrados , Conceptos Matemáticos , Modelos Estadísticos , Programas Nacionales de Salud/legislación & jurisprudencia , Dinámicas no Lineales , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos
18.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(30): e26709, 2021 Jul 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34397701

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread wildly across the world. In March of 2020, almost all kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) schools were closed in the United States in an urgent attempt to curb the pandemic in the absence of effective therapeutics or vaccination. Thirteen months since then, schools remain partially closed. Accumulated evidence suggests that children and adolescents are not the primary facilitators of transmission, limiting the restrictive effects of school closures on disease transmission. The negative effects of school closures on K-12 students need to be systematically reviewed. METHODS: Following the guideline of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyzes, a comprehensive literature search from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Web of Science regarding school closures and its impact on K-12 students was conducted. The primary outcomes included the impact of school closures on the mitigation of the pandemic and the resulting public health concerns of K-12 students. RESULTS: Prolonged school closures possessed negative effects on K-12 students' physical, mental, and social well-being and reduced the number of health and social workers, hindering the reopening of the country. CONCLUSIONS: School closures were over-weighted against the mitigation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. A safe reopening of all K-12 schools in the United States should be of top priority.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Instituciones Académicas , Adolescente , COVID-19/transmisión , Niño , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
19.
Int J Prison Health ; ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print)2021 08 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34383394

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: This study aims to explore the psychological effects of lockdown during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in an Italian prison. The suspension of family visits and most activities, along with the difficulties in applying social distancing to this vulnerable population was associated with increased psychological distress. Riots broke out over two days in more than 22 prisons across Italy at the beginning of March 2020, highlighting the negative psychological impact of the pandemic and the country's emergency policies. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The research involves 17 men (Italians and foreigners) detained in a Lombardy prison from 1 March to 4 May 2020, corresponding to the lockdown phase in Italy. The qualitative content analysis (CA) of 27 posts, written by participants during that period and published on the blog "L'Oblò", were analysed. The analysis allowed the identification of topics and subtopics that are related to two major categories of content: cognitions and emotional connotations about the COVID-19 lockdown in prison. FINDINGS: Analysis showed that blog post content was predominately negative in terms of emotional connotations. The most frequent coded negative emotional connotations were: missing, worry, psychological pain and fear, whilst the most frequent coded positive emotional connotations were: hope and gratitude for the support they received from prison workers. The rest of the blog content was coded as "cognitions". Cognitions were coded as descriptions of lockdown effect on detention; prison during the COVID-19 emergency; the pandemic situation in general; and comparison between inside and outside prison. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The current study is original as it describes through blog CA the psychological condition of prisoners during the first COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in the most affected region in Italy.


Asunto(s)
Blogging , COVID-19/psicología , Cognición , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Emociones , Prisioneros/psicología , Distrés Psicológico , Adulto , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prisiones , Investigación Cualitativa , Tumultos
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