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1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 335, 2021 Apr 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33836685

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. METHODS: Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits. RESULTS: Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase. CONCLUSION: High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias/prevención & control , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/transmisión , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/virología , Tiempo (Meteorología) , Ciudades , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Teóricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Washingtón
2.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 529, 2021 03 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33731053

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: This study applied the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. METHODS: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China's National Health Commission. RESULTS: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that the combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media were important routes affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then controlling population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. CONCLUSIONS: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.


Asunto(s)
/transmisión , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/epidemiología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Modelos Teóricos , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Salud Poblacional
4.
Phys Rev Lett ; 126(9): 098301, 2021 Mar 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33750152

RESUMEN

Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe large gatherings. Through a higher-order description of contagions on networks, we model the impact of a blanket cancellation of events larger than a critical size and find that epidemics can suddenly collapse when interventions operate over groups of individuals rather than at the level of individuals. We relate this phenomenon to the onset of mesoscopic localization, where contagions concentrate around dominant groups.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias/prevención & control , Modelos Teóricos , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Humanos , Conducta Social
5.
Sex Health ; 18(1): 41-49, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33653504

RESUMEN

The 2016 global commitments towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 require the Asia-Pacific region to reach the Fast-Track targets by 2020. Despite early successes, the region is well short of meeting these targets. The overall stalled progress in the HIV response has been further undermined by rising new infections among young key populations and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the HIV situation, assesses the gaps, and analyses what it would take the region to end AIDS by 2030. Political will and commitments for ending AIDS must be reaffirmed and reinforced. Focused regional strategic direction that answers the specific regional context and guides countries to respond to their specific needs must be put in place. The region must harness the power of innovative tools and technology in both prevention and treatment. Community activism and meaningful community engagement across the spectrum of HIV response must be ensured. Punitive laws, stigma, and discrimination that deter key populations and people living with HIV from accessing health services must be effectively tackled. The people-centred public health approach must be fully integrated into national universal health coverage while ensuring domestic resources are available for community-led service delivery. The region must utilise its full potential and draw upon lessons that have been learnt to address common challenges of the HIV and COVID-19 pandemics and achieve the goal of ending AIDS by 2030, in fulfillment of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.


Asunto(s)
Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/prevención & control , Epidemias/prevención & control , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/transmisión , Asia , Prestación de Atención de Salud/organización & administración , Objetivos , Implementación de Plan de Salud/organización & administración , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Islas del Pacífico , Política , Desarrollo Sostenible , Cobertura Universal del Seguro de Salud/organización & administración
6.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(3): e1008688, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33690626

RESUMEN

Outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. The initial control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing, teleworking, mouth masks and contact tracing. However, as pre-symptomatic transmission remains an important driver of the epidemic, contact tracing efforts struggle to fully control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Therefore, in this work, we investigate to what extent the use of universal testing, i.e., an approach in which we screen the entire population, can be utilized to mitigate this epidemic. To this end, we rely on PCR test pooling of individuals that belong to the same households, to allow for a universal testing procedure that is feasible with the limited testing capacity. We evaluate two isolation strategies: on the one hand pool isolation, where we isolate all individuals that belong to a positive PCR test pool, and on the other hand individual isolation, where we determine which of the individuals that belong to the positive PCR pool are positive, through an additional testing step. We evaluate this universal testing approach in the STRIDE individual-based epidemiological model in the context of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic. As the organisation of universal testing will be challenging, we discuss the different aspects related to sample extraction and PCR testing, to demonstrate the feasibility of universal testing when a decentralized testing approach is used. We show through simulation, that weekly universal testing is able to control the epidemic, even when many of the contact reductions are relieved. Finally, our model shows that the use of universal testing in combination with stringent contact reductions could be considered as a strategy to eradicate the virus.


Asunto(s)
/métodos , /prevención & control , Epidemias/prevención & control , Bélgica/epidemiología , /estadística & datos numéricos , Biología Computacional , Simulación por Computador , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Trazado de Contacto/estadística & datos numéricos , Trazado de Contacto/tendencias , Reacciones Falso Negativas , Composición Familiar , Estudios de Factibilidad , Humanos , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Tamizaje Masivo/estadística & datos numéricos , Tamizaje Masivo/tendencias , Modelos Estadísticos , Cuarentena/métodos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/tendencias , Viaje
7.
Math Biosci Eng ; 18(2): 1833-1844, 2021 02 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33757213

RESUMEN

In this paper, we present an SEIIaHR epidemic model to study the influence of recessive infection and isolation in the spread of COVID-19. We first prove that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with condition R0<1 and the positive equilibrium is uniformly persistent when the condition R0>1. By using the COVID-19 data in India, we then give numerical simulations to illustrate our results and carry out some sensitivity analysis. We know that asymptomatic infections will affect the spread of the disease when the quarantine rate is within the range of [0.3519, 0.5411]. Furthermore, isolating people with symptoms is important to control and eliminate the disease.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Epidemias , Modelos Biológicos , Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Número Básico de Reproducción/estadística & datos numéricos , /transmisión , Simulación por Computador , Epidemias/prevención & control , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , India/epidemiología , Cadenas de Markov , Conceptos Matemáticos , Método de Montecarlo , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos
9.
J Glob Health ; 11: 05005, 2021 Jan 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33643638

RESUMEN

Background: Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions. Methods: An age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population. Results: The enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak. Conclusions: Use of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Modelos Teóricos , /terapia , Predicción , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Incidencia , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Prevalencia , Qatar/epidemiología
10.
Orv Hetil ; 162(10): 366-374, 2021 03 07.
Artículo en Húngaro | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33683216

RESUMEN

Összefoglaló. Az elmúlt hónapokban életünket alapvetoen megváltoztatta a COVID-19-pandémia, melynek egészségügyi, gazdasági és társadalmi hatásai egyelore szinte felbecsülhetetlenek. A vírusfertozés akut következményei mellett egyre több adat bizonyítja a teljes népességre kifejtett hatásait: a pszichológiai distressz, a depressziós és szorongásos tünetek, valamint az addiktív viselkedésformák gyakoriságának növekedését. Az is nagyon fontos kérdés, hogy a globális válsághelyzet hogyan befolyásolja az öngyilkossági arányszámokat. Írásomban az elmúlt idoszak legjelentosebb pszichiátriai szakirodalma alapján foglalom össze a vírusfertozés akut és krónikus hatásait, valamint a járványhelyzet általános és specifikus pszichológiai-pszichopatológiai következményeit, kiemelt figyelmet fordítva a suicidiumrizikóra és a leginkább veszélyeztetett csoportokra. A vizsgálatok arra utalnak, hogy a pandémia következtében kialakuló mentális gondok és a suicid viselkedés egyre fontosabb népegészségügyi problémává válnak. Bár napjainkban még a vírusfertozöttek gyógyítása és a fertozés terjedésének lassítása a legfontosabb cél, mindannyiunknak fel kell készülnünk a járvány hosszú távú következményeire. A pandémia várható negatív mentálhigiénés hatásainak megelozésére és enyhítésére általános és specifikus módszerek kidolgozása és alkalmazása szükséges. Ebben az egészségügyi, mentálhigiénés és közösségi ellátórendszerek mellett szerepet kell vállalniuk a politikai és gazdasági döntéshozóknak, a társadalmi szervezeteknek és a média munkatársainak is. Hatékony együttmuködésük kulcsfontosságú az egyéni, közösségi és társadalmi szinten is alkalmazható prevenciós stratégiák megvalósításában, hiszen csak így válik lehetové a súlyosabb mentálhigiénés problémák járványszeru elterjedésének, a "pszichodémiának" a megelozése. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(10): 366-374. Summary. In recent months, our lives have been fundamentally changed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social impacts of which are almost invaluable for the time being. In addition to the acute consequences of viral infection, more and more data are proving its effects on the entire population: an increase in the incidence of psychological distress, depressive and anxiety symptoms, and addictive behaviours. It is also a very important question, how the global crisis is affecting suicide rates. In my paper, I summarize the acute and chronic effects of viral infection and the general and specific psychological-psychopathological consequences of the epidemic based on the most significant psychiatric literature of the recent period, paying special attention to suicidal risk and the most vulnerable groups. Studies suggest that mental troubles and suicidal behaviour resulting from a pandemic are becoming an increasingly important public health problem. Although the treatment of viral infections and slowing the spread of the infection are still the most important goals today, we all need to be prepared for the long-term consequences of the epidemic. In order to prevent and mitigate the expected negative mental health effects of a pandemic, it is necessary to develop and apply general and specific methods. In addition to health care, mental health and community care systems, political and economic decision-makers, civil society organizations and the media must also play a role. Their effective cooperation is key to the implementation of prevention strategies that can be applied at the individual, community and social levels, as this is the only way to prevent the epidemic spread of more serious mental health problems, the "psychodemia". Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(10): 366-374.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias , Trastornos Mentales , /psicología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Humanos , Trastornos Mentales/epidemiología , Trastornos Mentales/prevención & control
11.
Lancet ; 397(10279): 1151-1156, 2021 03 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33617770

RESUMEN

With more than 1·2 million people living with HIV in the USA, a complex epidemic across the large and diverse country, and a fragmented health-care system marked by widening health disparities, the US HIV epidemic requires sustained scientific and public health attention. The epidemic has been stubbornly persistent; high incidence densities have been sustained over decades and the epidemic is increasingly concentrated among racial, ethnic, and sexual and gender minority communities. This fact remains true despite extraordinary scientific advances in prevention, treatment, and care-advances that have been led, to a substantial degree, by US-supported science and researchers. In this watershed year of 2021 and in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that the USA will not meet the stated goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy, particularly those goals relating to reductions in new infections, decreases in morbidity, and reductions in HIV stigma. The six papers in the Lancet Series on HIV in the USA have each examined the underlying causes of these challenges and laid out paths forward for an invigorated, sustained, and more equitable response to the US HIV epidemic than has been seen to date. The sciences of HIV surveillance, prevention, treatment, and implementation all suggest that the visionary goals of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative in the USA might be achievable. However, fundamental barriers and challenges need to be addressed and the research effort sustained if we are to succeed.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias/prevención & control , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Implementación de Plan de Salud/organización & administración , Administración en Salud Pública , Grupos de Población Continentales/estadística & datos numéricos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Grupos Étnicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por VIH/terapia , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Humanos , Grupos Minoritarios/estadística & datos numéricos , Minorías Sexuales y de Género/estadística & datos numéricos , Estigma Social
13.
J Infect Public Health ; 14(3): 293-305, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33610938

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus (EBOV); a public health emergency of international concern,is known to pose threat of global outbreaks. EBOV has spread in African continent and due to unchecked international travel, importation of cases has been reported in different countries. In this alarming scenario, developing countries need to evaluate and upgrade their preparedness plan to contain the spread of EBOV. The present review lays down the updated preparedness plan for developing countries to contain future EBOV outbreaks. METHODS: The literature on EBOV outbreaks and preparedness strategies reported were searched on Pubmed and Google Scholar using the MeSH terms such as "Ebola virus disease, Epidemic, Outbreak, Imported case, Preparedness, Public health interventions" combined with Boolean operator (OR) for the period of 2011-2020. Additionally, World Health organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) websites were searched for the guidelines, reports, containment strategies, containment plan of countries, actions taken by countries and international partners, etc. RESULTS: The present review analyzed the EBOV outbreaks between 2011-2020 and containment strategies used by the affected countries. Based on the lessons learned from EBOV outbreaks and personal experience in infectious disease management, we have recommended a preparedness and response plan for EBOV containment in developing countries. CONCLUSION: Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to major outbreaks of EBOV due to increased international travel and unchecked transmission. The recommended preparedness plan will help developing counties to contain EBOV outbreaks in future.


Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Ebolavirus , Epidemias/prevención & control , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , Defensa Civil , Trazado de Contacto , Países en Desarrollo , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Humanos , Pruebas en el Punto de Atención
14.
Science ; 371(6536)2021 03 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33531384

RESUMEN

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Epidemias , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Número Básico de Reproducción , /prevención & control , Teléfono Celular , Niño , Preescolar , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Epidemias/prevención & control , Humanos , Lactante , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Instituciones Académicas , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
15.
Epidemics ; 34: 100437, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33540378

RESUMEN

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the epidemic: social distancing, isolation of a portion of the population, quarantine for confirmed cases and testing. We refer to quarantine as strict isolation, and it is applied to confirmed infected cases. In the proposed model, the proportion of people in isolation, the level of contact reduction and the testing rate are control parameters that can vary in time, representing policies that evolve in different stages. We obtain an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of the parameters of the disease and of the control policies. In this way we can quantify the effect that isolation and testing have in the evolution of the epidemic. We present a series of simulations to illustrate different realistic scenarios. From the expression of R0 and the simulations we conclude that isolation (social distancing) and testing among asymptomatic cases are fundamental actions to control the epidemic, and the stricter these measures are and the sooner they are implemented, the more effective they are in flattening the curve of infections. Additionally, we show that people that remain in isolation significantly reduce their probability of contagion, so risk groups should be recommended to maintain a low contact rate during the course of the epidemic.


Asunto(s)
/prevención & control , Modelos Teóricos , Cuarentena , Infecciones Asintomáticas , Número Básico de Reproducción , Simulación por Computador , Epidemias/prevención & control , Humanos
16.
Lancet HIV ; 8(2): e106-e113, 2021 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33539757

RESUMEN

Ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 will require addressing stigma more systematically and at a larger scale than current efforts. Existing global evidence shows that stigma is a barrier to achieving each of the 90-90-90 targets; it undermines HIV testing, linkage to care, treatment adherence, and viral load suppression. However, findings from both research studies and programmatic experience have helped to inform the growing body of knowledge regarding how to reduce stigma, leading to key principles for HIV stigma reduction. These principles include immediately addressing actionable drivers of stigma, centring groups affected by stigma at the core of the response, and engaging opinion leaders and building partnerships between affected groups and opinion leaders. Although there is still room to strengthen research on stigma measurement and reduction, in particular for intersectional stigma, the proliferation of evidence over the past several decades on how to measure and address stigma provides a solid foundation for immediate and comprehensive action.


Asunto(s)
Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/prevención & control , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/psicología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Miedo/psicología , Estigma Social , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/diagnóstico , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/virología , Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Femenino , VIH/efectos de los fármacos , VIH/crecimiento & desarrollo , VIH/patogenicidad , Humanos , Masculino , Cooperación del Paciente/psicología , Cooperación del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Aislamiento Social/psicología , Cumplimiento y Adherencia al Tratamiento/psicología , Cumplimiento y Adherencia al Tratamiento/estadística & datos numéricos , Carga Viral/efectos de los fármacos
17.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 411, 2021 02 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33637062

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: To reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in its first wave, European governments have implemented successive measures to encourage social distancing. However, it remained unclear how effectively measures reduced the spread of the virus. We examined how the effective-contact rate (ECR), the mean number of daily contacts for an infectious individual to transmit the virus, among European citizens evolved during this wave over the period with implemented measures, disregarding a priori information on governmental measures. METHODS: We developed a data-oriented approach that is based on an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. Using the available data on the confirmed numbers of infections and hospitalizations, we first estimated the daily total number of infectious-, exposed- and susceptible individuals and subsequently estimated the ECR with an iterative Poisson regression model. We then compared change points in the daily ECRs to the moments of the governmental measures. RESULTS: The change points in the daily ECRs were found to align with the implementation of governmental interventions. At the end of the considered time-window, we found similar ECRs for Italy (0.29), Spain (0.24), and Germany (0.27), while the ECR in the Netherlands (0.34), Belgium (0.35) and the UK (0.37) were somewhat higher. The highest ECR was found for Sweden (0.45). CONCLUSIONS: There seemed to be an immediate effect of banning events and closing schools, typically among the first measures taken by the governments. The effect of additionally closing bars and restaurants seemed limited. For most countries a somewhat delayed effect of the full lockdown was observed, and the ECR after a full lockdown was not necessarily lower than an ECR after (only) a gathering ban.


Asunto(s)
/prevención & control , Epidemias/prevención & control , Gobierno , Salud Pública/legislación & jurisprudencia , Número Básico de Reproducción/estadística & datos numéricos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Cuarentena , Restaurantes/organización & administración , Instituciones Académicas/organización & administración
18.
Perspect Health Inf Manag ; 18(Winter): 1g, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33633517

RESUMEN

At the end of 2019, the world faced the novel coronavirus, and with it fear of economic collapse and mass fatalities. Simulation systems can be used to monitor the behavior of the virus. Simulation provides an abstract representation of reality by conveying details and characteristics of reality in a simple application. One of the most important ways to simulate is agent-based modeling. The health information professional plays an important role in developing these models. In this research, we simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a region restricted to a population with specific demographic characteristics and social relationships. This study aims to clarify the effects of preventative techniques that suppress the spread of epidemics, such as quarantines, social distancing, and reduced mass transit.


Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Epidemias/prevención & control , Análisis de Sistemas , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados
19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(3): 767-778, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33622460

RESUMEN

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Epidemias , Predicción/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , Coronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Epidemias/prevención & control , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Teóricos , Incertidumbre , Estados Unidos/epidemiología
20.
Bull Math Biol ; 83(4): 25, 2021 02 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33594478

RESUMEN

We present a classic SEIR model taking into account the daily movements of individuals in different places. The model also takes into account partial confinement of individuals. This model is coupled with a model of protection against the epidemic by the use of masks. We are studying the effects of combined confinement and protection measures on the dynamics of the epidemic. We consider a constant proportion of asymptomatic people. We assume that symptomatic infected people may change their urban travel behavior due to the disease which causes them to travel less to places where they used to move and to stay at home more often. We present a sensitivity study with respect to the parameters. We show that the combination of the use of masks with almost complete release of confinement makes it possible to avoid the occurrence of a secondary peak of the epidemic. The model predicts that a total release of confinement can be successful for an epidemic of [Formula: see text] if on average a proportion of [Formula: see text] of the population wears masks of [Formula: see text] efficacy. However, if [Formula: see text] of the population remains confined, the same goal can be achieved with a proportion of [Formula: see text] of the population wearing masks with efficacy of the order of [Formula: see text].


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Biológicos , Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Susceptibilidad a Enfermedades , Humanos , Máscaras/estadística & datos numéricos , Conceptos Matemáticos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , Viaje/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana
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