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3.
Clin Med (Lond) ; 21(2): e171-e178, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33762383

RESUMEN

Large reductions in emergency department attendances and hospitalisations with non-COVID acute medical illness early during the pandemic were attributed to reluctance to seek medical help and higher referral thresholds. Here, we compare acute medical admissions with a comparison cohort from 2017. Deaths in the same geographic area were examined, and Wales-wide deaths during these 4 weeks in 2020 were compared with a seasonally matched period in 2019. There were 528 patients admitted with non-COVID illness in 2020, versus 924 in 2017 (a reduction of 43%). Deaths from non-COVID causes increased by 10.9% compared with 2017, over half this rise being from neurological causes including stroke and dementia. While far fewer patients required hospitalisation as medical emergencies, rises in local non-COVID deaths proved small. Wales-wide non-COVID deaths rose by just 1% compared with 2019. The findings suggest that changes in population behaviour and lifestyle during lockdown brought about unforeseen health benefits.


Asunto(s)
Pandemias , Epidemiología , Hospitalización , Humanos , Incidencia , Cuarentena , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología
4.
Int J Prison Health ; ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print)2021 03 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33683835

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and subsequent COVID-19 illness has had a major impact on all levels of society internationally. The extent of the impact of COVID-19 on prison staff and prisoners in England and Wales is unknown. Testing for COVID-19 both asymptomatic and symptomatic, as well as for antibodies, to date, has been minimal. The purpose of this paper is to explore the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisons poses philosophical and ethical questions around trust, efficacy and ethicacy. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: This paper is both descriptive, providing an overview of the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisoners in England and Wales, and conceptual in that it discusses and argues the issues associated with large-scale testing. This paper provides a discussion, using comparative studies, of the issues associated with large-scale testing of prisoners across the prison estate in England and Wales (120 prisons). The issues identified in this paper are contextualised through the lens of COVID-19, but they are equally transferrable to epidemiological studies of any pandemic. Given the prevalence of COVID-19 globally and the lack of information about its spread in prisons, at the time of writing this paper, there is a programme of asymptomatic testing of prisoners. However, there remains a paucity of data on the spread of COVID-19 in prisons because of the progress with the ongoing testing programme. FINDINGS: The authors argue that the widespread testing of prisoners requires careful consideration of the details regarding who is included in testing, how consent is gained and how tests are administered. This paper outlines and argues the importance of considering the complex nuance of power relationships within the prison system, among prisoner officers, medical staff and prisoners and the detrimental consequences. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The widespread testing of COVID-19 presents ethical and practical challenges. Careful planning is required when considering the ethics of who should be included in COVID-19 testing, how consent will be gained, who and how tests will be administered and very practical challenges around the recording and assigning of COVID-19 test kits inside the prison. The current system for the general population requires scanning of barcodes and registration using a mobile number; these facilities are not permitted inside a prison. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper looks at the issues associated with mass testing of prisoners for COVID-19. According to the authors' knowledge, there has not been any research that looks at the issues of testing either in the UK or internationally. The literature available details countries' responses to the pandemic rather and scientific papers on the development of vaccines. Therefore, this paper is an original review of some of the practicalities that need to be addressed to ensure that testing can be as successful as possible.


Asunto(s)
/diagnóstico , Prisioneros , Adulto , /ética , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalencia , Confianza , Gales/epidemiología
5.
Bone Joint J ; 103-B(3): 469-478, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33641419

RESUMEN

AIMS: To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. METHODS: We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. RESULTS: A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. CONCLUSION: We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469-478.


Asunto(s)
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera/mortalidad , Modelos Estadísticos , Mortalidad/tendencias , Osteoartritis de la Cadera/cirugía , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/mortalidad , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Edad , Toma de Decisiones Conjunta , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Internet , Irlanda/epidemiología , Masculino , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Sistema de Registros , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Sexuales , Suecia/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología
6.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(4): 952-963, 2021 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33714592

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To describe the place and cause of death during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to assess its impact on excess mortality. METHODS: This national death registry included all adult (aged ≥18 years) deaths in England and Wales between January 1, 2014, and June 30, 2020. Daily deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were compared against the expected daily deaths, estimated with use of the Farrington surveillance algorithm for daily historical data between 2014 and 2020 by place and cause of death. RESULTS: Between March 2 and June 30, 2020, there was an excess mortality of 57,860 (a proportional increase of 35%) compared with the expected deaths, of which 50,603 (87%) were COVID-19 related. At home, only 14% (2267) of the 16,190 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, with 5963 deaths due to cancer and 2485 deaths due to cardiac disease, few of which involved COVID-19. In care homes or hospices, 61% (15,623) of the 25,611 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, 5539 of which were due to respiratory disease, and most of these (4315 deaths) involved COVID-19. In the hospital, there were 16,174 fewer deaths than expected that did not involve COVID-19, with 4088 fewer deaths due to cancer and 1398 fewer deaths due to cardiac disease than expected. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a large excess of deaths in care homes that were poorly characterized and likely to be the result of undiagnosed COVID-19. There was a smaller but important and ongoing excess in deaths at home, particularly from cancer and cardiac disease, suggesting public avoidance of hospital care for non-COVID-19 conditions.


Asunto(s)
Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Cardiopatías/mortalidad , Servicios de Atención de Salud a Domicilio/estadística & datos numéricos , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Casas de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Anciano de 80 o más Años , /mortalidad , Errores Diagnósticos/mortalidad , Errores Diagnósticos/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Cuidados Paliativos al Final de la Vida/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad Hospitalaria/tendencias , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Gales/epidemiología
7.
BMC Oral Health ; 21(1): 137, 2021 03 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33740952

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Dental caries is the most prevalent condition globally. Despite improvements over the past few decades, there remains a significant disease burden in childhood. Epidemiological surveys provide insight to disease patterns and trends, and have traditionally focused on obvious decay which are inconsistent with contemporary clinical criteria. This study examined the distribution of dental caries in 12- and 15-year-olds in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, by severity threshold, at surface, tooth and child level and explored its association with socioeconomic, psychological and behavioural factors. METHODS: Data from 12- and 15-year-olds in the 2013 Children's Dental Health Survey (CDHS 2013) were analysed at three levels, taking account of dental caries thresholds which involved recording both clinical decay [visual enamel caries (AV) and above] and obvious decay [non-cavitated dentine lesions (2V) and above]. Negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with dental caries experience at both thresholds. RESULTS: The prevalence and severity of dental caries experience was higher among 15-year-olds at all levels. Visual change in enamel (AV) was by far the most common stage of caries recorded in both ages. The average number of surfaces with obvious decay experience, which has been the traditional epidemiological threshold, in 12- and 15-year-olds was 2.3 and 3.9 respectively. The corresponding values under the clinical decay threshold were higher, at 3.9 and 5.9 respectively. Visualisation of the distribution of dental caries at surface/tooth-level exhibited horizontal symmetry and to a lesser extent vertical symetry. In the adjusted models for both ages, country/region, school type, area deprivation, high frequency sugar consumption and irregular dental attendance were associated with greater caries experience in both groups. Dental anxiety was inversely associated with caries experience among 15-year-olds. CONCLUSION: This research highlights the importance of recognising dental caries patterns by surface, tooth and child-level amongst adolescents and the value of reporting dental caries distribution by threshold in epidemiological surveys, including its relevance for clinical care. Inclusion of enamel caries reveals the extent of caries management required at a point when non-invasive care is possible, emphasising the importance of prevention through contemporary primary care, which includes supporting self-care.


Asunto(s)
Caries Dental , Adolescente , Niño , Índice CPO , Caries Dental/epidemiología , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Humanos , Irlanda del Norte/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Gales/epidemiología
8.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33672133

RESUMEN

To investigate the dynamic issues behind intra- and international variation in EWM (Excess Winter Mortality) using a rolling monthly EWM calculation. This is used to reveal seasonal changes in the EWM calculation and is especially relevant nearer to the equator where EWM does not reach a peak at the same time each year. In addition to latitude country specific factors determine EWM. Females generally show higher EWM. Differences between the genders are highly significant and seem to vary according to the mix of variables active each winter. The EWM for respiratory conditions in England and Wales ranges from 44% to 83%, which is about double the all-cause mortality equivalent. A similar magnitude of respiratory EWM is observed in other temperate countries. Even higher EWM can be seen for specific respiratory conditions. Age has a profound effect on EWM with a peak at puberty and then increases EWM at older ages. The gap between male and female EWM seems to act as a diagnostic tool reflecting the infectious/metrological mix in each winter. Difference due to ethnicity are also observed. An EWM equivalent calculation for sickness absence demonstrates how other health-related variables can be linked to EWM. Midway between the equator and the poles show the highest EWM since such areas tend to neglect the importance of keeping dwellings warm in the winter. Pandemic influenza does not elevate EWM, although seasonal influenza plays a part each winter. Pandemic influenza and changes in influenza strain/variant mix do, however, create structural breaks in the time series and this implies that comparing EWM between studies conducted over different times can be problematic. Cancer is an excellent example of the usefulness of rolling method since cancer EWM drifts each year, in some years increasing winter EWM and in other years diminishing it. In addition, analysis of sub-national EWM in the UK reveals high spatiotemporal granularity indicating roles for infectious outbreaks. The rolling method gives greater insight into the dynamic nature of EWM, which otherwise lies concealed in the current static method.


Asunto(s)
Grupos Étnicos , Gripe Humana , Anciano , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Estaciones del Año , Gales/epidemiología
9.
Br J Nurs ; 30(4): 218-225, 2021 Feb 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33641394

RESUMEN

During the COVID-19 pandemic it was initially not possible to see people with lymphoedema face-to-face at lymphoedema services, due to the potential risks of the virus, because they were shielding, because of redeployment of rooms or staff, and due to sporadic restrictions of movement. The pandemic therefore accelerated adjustments in lymphoedema service delivery, while ensuring effective and efficient care was paramount. This document presents a pragmatic guide for lymphoedema services. Although clinical and non-clinical staff need to comply with guidance from their own organisations/commissioners, this document aims to provide specific guidance and share good practice in relation to lymphoedema management. These guidelines are based on analysis of the national response of Lymphoedema Network Wales during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic and incorporate supporting contemporary advice. They have been used throughout NHS Wales, providing a standardised approach in supporting care for people with lymphoedema. In light of the enduring nature of COVID-19, it is imperative that lymphoedema services have a means to provide suitable care for patients. Although face-to-face appointments are sometimes deemed necessary, many patients can be suitably supported via telehealth consultations. These guidelines may help lymphoedema services restore and reset in a safe and acceptable manner.


Asunto(s)
Linfedema/enfermería , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Telemedicina , Humanos , Medicina Estatal , Gales/epidemiología
10.
Br J Nurs ; 30(4): 210-217, 2021 Feb 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33641406

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, lymphoedema staff adapted services, providing care remotely, and worked in other NHS sectors. The impact on services and staff must be understood in order to safeguard patient care and foster workforce resilience. AIMS: To evaluate the experiences of clinical and non-clinical lymphoedema staff in Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An anonymous online survey, based on scoping work, was sent out via the Welsh lymphoedema services mailing list. FINDINGS: 71% (68/96) of eligible lymphoedema staff completed the survey. More than half supported lymphoedema services (40/68) with the remaining staff deployed elsewhere. Overall, staff and services felt prepared for new ways of working. Concerns about others and the future burden on services when life returned to normal were reported. Opportunities identified included education initiatives and virtual services. CONCLUSION: Lymphoedema services were well prepared to deliver virtually, enable effective care and share knowledge. Co-ordinated efforts to uphold patient advocacy will support virtual services to meet their needs.


Asunto(s)
Linfedema/enfermería , Personal de Enfermería/psicología , Medicina Estatal/organización & administración , Telemedicina , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Gales/epidemiología
11.
BMC Cancer ; 21(1): 313, 2021 Mar 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33761919

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is widely used and has proven benefits for women with menopausal symptoms. An increasing number of women with cancer experience menopausal symptoms but the safety of HRT use in women with cancer is unclear. There are particular concerns that HRT could accelerate cancer progression in women with cancer, and also that HRT could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in such women. Therefore, our primary aim is to determine whether HRT use alters the risk of cancer-specific mortality in women with a range of common cancers. Our secondary objectives are to investigate whether HRT alters the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality. METHODS: The study will utilise independent population-based data from Wales using the SAIL databank and Scotland based upon the national Prescribing Information System. The study will include women newly diagnosed with common cancers from 2000 to 2016, identified from cancer registries. Women with breast cancers will be excluded. HRT will be ascertained using electronic prescribing in Wales or dispensing records in Scotland. The primary outcome will be time to cancer-specific mortality from national mortality records. Time-dependent cox regression models will be used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cancer specific death in HRT users compared with non-users after cancer diagnosis after adjusting for relevant confounders, stratified by cancer site. Analysis will be repeated investigating the impact of HRT use immediately before cancer diagnosis. Secondary analyses will be conducted on the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality. Analyses will be conducted within each cohort and pooled across cohorts. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide evidence to inform guidance given to women diagnosed with cancer on the safety of HRT use and/or guide modifications to clinical practice.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Terapia de Reemplazo de Estrógeno/efectos adversos , Neoplasias Primarias Secundarias/epidemiología , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Menopausia , Sistema de Registros/estadística & datos numéricos , Medición de Riesgo/estadística & datos numéricos , Escocia/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología
12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33572756

RESUMEN

(1) Background: This study examines the associations between risk behaviours and adolescent emotional and physical dating and relationship violence (DRV) victimisation and perpetration, and how these vary by gender. The risk behaviours explored include bullying, cyberbullying, sexting, alcohol, and cannabis use; (2) Methods: Cross-sectional self-report data from the School Health Research Network (SHRN) 2019 Student Health Wellbeing (SHW) survey of 48,397 students aged 11-16 from 149 schools across Wales were analysed using single and multiple-behaviour logistic regression models to explore the associations between each risk behaviour and emotional and physical DRV victimisation and perpetration; (3) Results: Bivariate analyses revealed a statistically significant association between DRV and all risk behaviours. In multivariate analyses, students who reported bullying, cyberbullying, sexting, and substance use, compared to those that had not, had significantly higher odds of experiencing and perpetrating emotional and physical DRV; and (4) Conclusions: Future studies on DRV should consider a mixed-methods approach to explore the context in which DRV and risk behaviours interrelate. Results from this study indicate the possibility that prevention and intervention programmes in school settings that seek to develop healthy school environments and peer-to-peer relationships, could inadvertently reduce the occurrence of future DRV and associated risk behaviours.


Asunto(s)
Conducta del Adolescente , Acoso Escolar , Víctimas de Crimen , Adolescente , Niño , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Asunción de Riesgos , Instituciones Académicas , Estudiantes , Violencia , Gales/epidemiología
13.
Public Health ; 192: 8-11, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33601307

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on people who inject drugs (PWID) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. STUDY DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring (UAM) Survey of PWID. METHODS: People who had ever injected psychoactive drugs were recruited to the UAM Survey by specialist drug/alcohol services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. From June 2020, in addition to providing a dried blood spot sample and completing the UAM behavioural questionnaire, participants were asked to complete an enhanced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) questionnaire. Preliminary data are presented to the end of October and were compared with data from the 2019 UAM Survey, where possible. RESULTS: Between June and October, 288 PWID were recruited from England and Northern Ireland. One in nine (11%; 29/260) PWID reported testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 or experiencing COVID-19 symptoms. Fifteen percent (26/169) reported injecting more frequently in 2020 than in 2019; cocaine injection in the preceding four weeks increased from 17% (242/1456) to 25% (33/130). One in five PWID (19%; 35/188) reported difficulties in accessing HIV and hepatitis testing, and one in four (26%; 47/179) reported difficulties in accessing equipment for safer injecting. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary findings suggest that PWID have experienced negative impacts on health, behaviours and access to essential harm reduction, testing and treatment services owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. Continued monitoring through surveillance and research is needed to understand the subsequent impact of COVID-19 on blood-borne virus transmission in this population and on health inequalities.


Asunto(s)
/psicología , Reducción del Daño , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud , Abuso de Sustancias por Vía Intravenosa/epidemiología , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Irlanda del Norte/epidemiología , Pandemias , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Abuso de Sustancias por Vía Intravenosa/complicaciones , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Gales/epidemiología
16.
BMJ Open ; 11(1): e047101, 2021 01 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33468531

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity is widely recognised as the presence of two or more concurrent long-term conditions, yet remains a poorly understood global issue despite increasing in prevalence.We have created the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC) to provide an accessible research ready data asset to further the understanding of multimorbidity. Our objectives are to create a platform to support research which would help to understand prevalence, trajectories and determinants in multimorbidity, characterise clusters that lead to highest burden on individuals and healthcare services, and evaluate and provide new multimorbidity phenotypes and algorithms to the National Health Service and research communities to support prevention, healthcare planning and the management of individuals with multimorbidity. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The WMC has been created and derived from multisourced demographic, administrative and electronic health record data relating to the Welsh population in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The WMC consists of 2.9 million people alive and living in Wales on the 1 January 2000 with follow-up until 31 December 2019, Welsh residency break or death. Published comorbidity indices and phenotype code lists will be used to measure and conceptualise multimorbidity.Study outcomes will include: (1) a description of multimorbidity using published data phenotype algorithms/ontologies, (2) investigation of the associations between baseline demographic factors and multimorbidity, (3) identification of temporal trajectories of clusters of conditions and multimorbidity and (4) investigation of multimorbidity clusters with poor outcomes such as mortality and high healthcare service utilisation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The SAIL Databank independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study (SAIL Project: 0911). Study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.


Asunto(s)
Multimorbilidad , Medicina Estatal , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Epidemiológicos , Femenino , Humanos , Almacenamiento y Recuperación de la Información , Masculino , Gales/epidemiología
17.
Int J Law Psychiatry ; 74: 101649, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33418151

RESUMEN

This article investigates the lawfulness of isolating residents of care and group homes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many residents are mobile, and their freedom to move is a central ethical tenet and human right. It is not however an absolute right and trade-offs between autonomy, liberty and health need to be made since COVID-19 is highly infectious and poses serious risks of critical illness and death. People living in care and group homes may be particularly vulnerable because recommended hygiene practices are difficult for them and many residents are elderly, and/or have co-morbidities. In some circumstances, the trade-offs can be made easily with the agreement of the resident and for short periods of time. However challenging cases arise, in particular for residents and occupants with dementia who 'wander', meaning they have a strong need to walk, sometimes due to agitation, as may also be the case for some people with developmental disability (e.g. autism), or as a consequence of mental illness. This article addresses three central questions: (1) in what circumstances is it lawful to isolate residents of social care homes to prevent transmission of COVID-19, in particular where the resident has a strong compulsion to walk and will not, or cannot, remain still and isolated? (2) what types of strategies are lawful to curtail walking and achieve isolation and social distancing? (3) is law reform required to ensure any action to restrict freedoms is lawful and not excessive? These questions emerged during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and are still relevant. Although focussed on COVID-19, the results are also relevant to other future outbreaks of infectious diseases in care and group homes. Likewise, while we concentrate on the law in England and Wales, the analysis and implications have international significance.


Asunto(s)
/epidemiología , Hogares para Grupos/ética , Hogares para Grupos/legislación & jurisprudencia , Casas de Salud/ética , Casas de Salud/legislación & jurisprudencia , Aislamiento de Pacientes/ética , Aislamiento de Pacientes/legislación & jurisprudencia , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Ética Médica , Humanos , Pandemias , Gales/epidemiología
18.
BJOG ; 128(3): 584-592, 2021 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33426798

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a care bundle (antenatal information to women, manual perineal protection and mediolateral episiotomy when indicated) on obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) rates. DESIGN: Multicentre stepped-wedge cluster design. SETTING: Sixteen maternity units located in four regions across England, Scotland and Wales. POPULATION: Women with singleton live births between October 2016 and March 2018. METHODS: Stepwise region by region roll-out every 3 months starting January 2017. The four maternity units in a region started at the same time. Multi-level logistic regression was used to estimate the impact of the care bundle, adjusting for time trend and case-mix factors (age, ethnicity, body mass index, parity, birthweight and mode of birth). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetric anal sphincter injury in singleton live vaginal births. RESULTS: A total of 55 060 singleton live vaginal births were included (79% spontaneous and 21% operative). Median maternal age was 30 years (interquartile range 26-34 years) and 46% of women were primiparous. The OASI rate decreased from 3.3% before to 3.0% after care bundle implementation (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03). There was no evidence that the effect of the care bundle differed according to parity (P = 0.77) or mode of birth (P = 0.31). There were no significant changes in caesarean section (P = 0.19) or episiotomy rates (P = 0.16) during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of this care bundle reduced OASI rates without affecting caesarean section rates or episiotomy use. These findings demonstrate its potential for reducing perineal trauma during childbirth. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: OASI Care Bundle reduced severe perineal tear rates without affecting caesarean section rates or episiotomy use.


Asunto(s)
Parto Obstétrico/normas , Laceraciones/epidemiología , Complicaciones del Trabajo de Parto/epidemiología , Mejoramiento de la Calidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Canal Anal/lesiones , Cesárea/efectos adversos , Cesárea/normas , Cesárea/estadística & datos numéricos , Análisis por Conglomerados , Parto Obstétrico/efectos adversos , Parto Obstétrico/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Episiotomía/efectos adversos , Episiotomía/normas , Episiotomía/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Laceraciones/prevención & control , Modelos Logísticos , Complicaciones del Trabajo de Parto/prevención & control , Perineo/lesiones , Embarazo , Proyectos de Investigación , Factores de Riesgo , Escocia/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología
19.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 21(4): 482-492, 2021 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33357518

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: A second wave of COVID-19 cases in autumn, 2020, in England led to localised, tiered restrictions (so-called alert levels) and, subsequently, a second national lockdown. We examined the impact of these tiered restrictions, and alternatives for lockdown stringency, timing, and duration, on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19. METHODS: We fit an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to data on hospital admissions and hospital bed occupancy (ISARIC4C/COVID-19 Clinical Information Network, National Health Service [NHS] England), seroprevalence (Office for National Statistics, UK Biobank, REACT-2 study), virology (REACT-1 study), and deaths (Public Health England) across the seven NHS England regions from March 1, to Oct 13, 2020. We analysed mobility (Google Community Mobility) and social contact (CoMix study) data to estimate the effect of tiered restrictions implemented in England, and of lockdowns implemented in Northern Ireland and Wales, in October, 2020, and projected epidemiological scenarios for England up to March 31, 2021. FINDINGS: We estimated a reduction in the effective reproduction number (Rt) of 2% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0-4) for tier 2, 10% (6-14) for tier 3, 35% (30-41) for a Northern Ireland-stringency lockdown with schools closed, and 44% (37-49) for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools closed. From Oct 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021, a projected COVID-19 epidemic without tiered restrictions or lockdown results in 280 000 (95% projection interval 274 000-287 000) hospital admissions and 58 500 (55 800-61 100) deaths. Tiered restrictions would reduce hospital admissions to 238 000 (231 000-245 000) and deaths to 48 600 (46 400-50 700). From Nov 5, 2020, a 4-week Wales-type lockdown with schools remaining open-similar to the lockdown measures announced in England in November, 2020-was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 186 000 (179 000-193 000) and deaths to 36 800 (34 900-38 800). Closing schools was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 157 000 (152 000-163 000) and deaths to 30 300 (29 000-31 900). A projected lockdown of greater than 4 weeks would reduce deaths but would bring diminishing returns in reducing peak pressure on hospital services. An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths and hospitalisations in the short term, but would lead to a faster resurgence in cases after January, 2021. In a post-hoc analysis, we estimated that the second lockdown in England (Nov 5-Dec 2) reduced Rt by 22% (95% CrI 15-29), rather than the 32% (25-39) reduction estimated for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools open. INTERPRETATION: Lockdown measures outperform less stringent restrictions in reducing cumulative deaths. We projected that the lockdown policy announced to commence in England on Nov 5, with a similar stringency to the lockdown adopted in Wales, would reduce pressure on the health service and would be well timed to suppress deaths over the winter period, while allowing schools to remain open. Following completion of the analysis, we analysed new data from November, 2020, and found that despite similarities in policy, the second lockdown in England had a smaller impact on behaviour than did the second lockdown in Wales, resulting in more deaths and hospitalisations than we originally projected when focusing on a Wales-stringency scenario for the lockdown. FUNDING: Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.


Asunto(s)
/mortalidad , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Modelos Estadísticos , Número Básico de Reproducción , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Epidemias , Predicción , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales , Hospitales , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Irlanda del Norte/epidemiología , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Medicina Estatal , Gales/epidemiología
20.
Int J Epidemiol ; 49(6): 1951-1962, 2021 01 23.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33349855

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: We estimated population-level associations between ethnicity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality using a newly linked census-based data set and investigated how ethnicity-specific mortality risk evolved during the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents to the 2011 Census of England and Wales in private households, linked to death registrations and adjusted for emigration (n = 47 872 412). The outcome of interest was death involving COVID-19 between 2 March 2020 and 15 May 2020. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic-minority groups compared with the White population, controlling for individual, household and area characteristics. HRs were estimated on the full outcome period and separately for pre- and post-lockdown periods. RESULTS: In age-adjusted models, people from all ethnic-minority groups were at elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality; the HRs for Black males and females were 3.13 (95% confidence interval: 2.93 to 3.34) and 2.40 (2.20 to 2.61), respectively. However, in fully adjusted models for females, the HRs were close to unity for all ethnic groups except Black [1.29 (1.18 to 1.42)]. For males, the mortality risk remained elevated for the Black [1.76 (1.63 to 1.90)], Bangladeshi/Pakistani [1.35 (1.21 to 1.49)] and Indian [1.30 (1.19 to 1.43)] groups. The HRs decreased after lockdown for all ethnic groups, particularly Black and Bangladeshi/Pakistani females. CONCLUSION: Differences in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups were largely attenuated by geographical and socio-demographic factors, though some residual differences remained. Lockdown was associated with reductions in excess mortality risk in ethnic-minority populations, which has implications for a second wave of infection.


Asunto(s)
/etnología , Censos , Certificado de Defunción , Grupos Étnicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Mortalidad/etnología , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud , Adolescente , Adulto , Afroamericanos , Factores de Edad , Grupo de Ascendencia Continental Asiática , Estudios de Cohortes , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Grupo de Ascendencia Continental Europea , Composición Familiar , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Características de la Residencia/clasificación , Características de la Residencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores Sexuales , Factores Socioeconómicos , Gales/epidemiología , Adulto Joven
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