Assessing carbon tax using a CGE model with firm heterogeneity: An application to Vietnam.

Vietnam's government is considering introducing a carbon market as part of its decarbonization strategy. The carbon tax is an option for the government to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. We evaluate the potential macroeconomic and climate impacts of carbon tax policy in Vietnam using a unique data set and simulation analysis with a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The model allows for firm heterogeneity: domestic firms and foreign-invested enterprises. The results show that with plausible tax rates, emissions can be reduced to levels 1.3-2.8 percent below the target value of emissions in 2030. The cost is a loss in GDP by 1.2-2.7 percent in 2030. The results also show that foreign-invested enterprises tend to increase emissions in the medium run even with a carbon tax while a carbon tax is more effective when applied to domestic firms. In addition, a substantial reduction in emissions from the energy sector and improvement in energy efficiency are keys to success in carbon abatement.

"Don't think of a soda": Contradictory public health messaging from a content analysis of Twitter posts about sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in California from 2015 to 2018.

To show how sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes were framed in posts on Twitter (now known as X) through text and images, we conducted a content analysis on a sample of Tweets from California users posted between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018 about SSB taxes in Berkeley, San Francisco, Oakland, and/or Albany, California. We evaluated posts for information sources, arguments for or against SSB tax policies, and images used. We found that posts presented a mix of messages through text and images. The majority of posts (64%) included arguments supporting SSB taxes, 28% presented a neutral position (e.g., factual information) or a mix of both pro-and anti-tax arguments, and 8% opposed. One-third of posts included an image, almost half of which appeared to be stock photos from SSB advertisements: many of these were shared by medical and public health users. Some tax supporters also reposted messages and images from opposition campaigns and added their own criticisms. By reposting opponents' anti-tax messages and images of SSBs, tax supporters may have inadvertently promoted SSBs, reinforced opposition to SSB taxes, and normalized SSBs. While advocates effectively shared pro-tax arguments, they should also ensure that accompanying images reflect the solutions they seek, not just the problem they are trying to combat.

Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.

Spatio-temporal investigation of economic growth and environmental quality nexus in EU countries: New guidelines regarding green goods and eco-tax.

The issue of environmental degradation has become pertinent and the call for carbon neutrality has intensified in recent years. Achieving this target will require countries to meet the conditions of the sustainable development goals. To do this, the study applied spatiotemporal modelling and the generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine the nexus between economic growth (EG) and the load capacity factor (LCF) through environmental goods (ENG) and environmental tax (ENT) among European Union (EU) nations from 1995 to 2018. The findings demonstrate that spatial dependence leads to a change in EG and LCF that impacts the EG and LCF of the neighbouring countries. The study also found that there is a significant positive and bidirectional relationship between economic growth and load capacity factor. Moreover, the study revealed that a positive effect of ENG, ENT, REN and Human Capital Index (HCI) on EG, with a reducing effect from natural resource rents (NRR). Finally, HCI improves environmental quality, while ENG, ENT, REN and NRR degrade the environment. Our findings justify the need for EU countries and other developed nations to implement policies that will help achieve a green economic transformation.

Assessing the fiscal consequences of novel and existing treatments for triple negative breast cancer in Switzerland by applying a government perspective framework.

BACKGROUND: Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer that can impact patients' employment and workforce participation. This study estimates how the employment effects of TNBC impact government tax revenue and public benefits expenditure in Switzerland, representing the fiscal burden of disease (FBoD), and likely consequences of introducing new treatment options. METHODS: A four-state cohort model was used to calculate fiscal effects for two treatments: Neoadjuvant pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy followed by adjuvant pembrolizumab monotherapy (P + C→P) and neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (C). Lifetime present values of tax revenue, social benefit payments, and healthcare costs were calculated for the average population and those undergoing treatment to assess the FBoD. RESULTS: An average TNBC patient treated with C and P + C→P is expected to generate CHF128,999 and CHF97,008 less tax than the average population, respectively, and require increased social benefit payments. Compared to C, 75% of the incremental healthcare costs of P + C→P are estimated to be offset through tax revenue gains. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates that 75% of the additional costs of a new TNBC treatment option can be offset by gains in tax revenue. Fiscal analysis can be a useful tool to complement existing methods for evaluating new treatments.

Evolving waste management: The impact of environmental technology, taxes, and carbon emissions on incineration in EU countries.

Amid the urgent global imperatives concerning climate change and resource preservation, our research delves into the critical domains of waste management and environmental sustainability within the European Union (EU), collecting data from 1990 to 2022. The Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) results reveal a resounding commitment among EU member states to diminish their reliance on incineration, which is evident through adopting green technologies and environmentally conscious taxation policies, aligning with the European Union's sustainability objectives. However, this transition presents the intricate task of harmonizing industrial emissions management with efficient waste disposal. Tailoring waste management strategies to accommodate diverse consumption patterns and unique circumstances within individual member states becomes imperative. Cointegrating regressions highlighted the long-run relationship among the selected variables, while Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) estimates roughly confirmed MMQR results. ML analyses, conducted through two ensemble methods (Gradient Boosting, GB, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost) shed light on the relative importance of the predictors: in particular, environmental taxation, consumption-based emissions, and production-based emissions greatly contribute to determining the variation of combustible renewables and waste. This study recommends that EU countries establish monitoring mechanisms to advance waste management and environmental sustainability through green technology adoption, enhance environmental taxation policies, and accelerate the renewable energy transition.

The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy and childhood hospital admissions for asthma in England.

Sugar sweetened beverage consumption has been suggested as a risk factor for childhood asthma symptoms. We examined whether the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL), announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, was associated with changes in National Health Service hospital admission rates for asthma in children, 22 months post-implementation of SDIL. We conducted interrupted time series analyses (2012-2020) to measure changes in monthly incidence rates of hospital admissions. Sub-analysis was by age-group (5-9,10-14,15-18 years) and neighbourhood deprivation quintiles. Changes were relative to counterfactual scenarios where the SDIL wasn't announced, or implemented. Overall, incidence rates reduced by 20.9% (95%CI: 29.6-12.2). Reductions were similar across age-groups and deprivation quintiles. These findings give support to the idea that implementation of a UK tax intended to reduce childhood obesity may have contributed to a significant unexpected and additional public health benefit in the form of reduced hospital admissions for childhood asthma.

Tax structure, government debt, and the relative power of local education supply.

Policymakers are increasingly focusing on structural adjustment and efficiency to cope with the pressures that the economic downturn has placed on local finances. Accordingly, the Chinese government should shift from using standard passive investments to high-quality active investments for its social guarantees, such as education. Based on panel data of 274 cities from 2010 to 2019, this study conducted the first examination of the impact of tax structure and government debt on the relative power of the local education supply (LES) in China. The study found that, first, in general, increases in the tax structure-represented by the proportion of personal income tax to budgetary revenue strengthen the relative power of LES, which is more sensitive in the southern region with a more developed market economy system. And the impact of government debt-represented by the urban investment debt ratio on the relative power of LES is initially negative and then positive. Second, the study revealed that the tax structure can stimulate the relative power of LES through the intermediary channel of an increase in the urban consumption rate; however, the mechanism of promoting the relative power of LES by encouraging localities to attract more floating populations is not obvious. Third, excessive investment in local governance adjusts the positive effect of local debt on the relative power of LES. Therefore, the government should pay attention to the promotion of personal income tax status, standardize their debt risk management, improve the efficiency of governance, and emphasize the pull of urban consumption, so as to enhance the ability to support livelihood and fully mobilize initiatives for local education development.

The impact of China's value-added tax credit refunds on enterprise labor demand: Ex-ante analysis and ex-post test.

This paper aims to explore the impact of China's value-added tax (VAT) credit refunds policy on the enterprises' labor demand through a paradigm combining ex-ante analysis and ex-post test. By introducing the VAT credit refunds into the production-decision model of the enterprise, calibrating the parameters and conducting the dynamic effects tests using the data of Chinese A-share listed enterprises, this paper finds that the labor employment of the pilot enterprises exhibits a V-shaped fluctuation trend. In the initial implementation of the policy, due to the existence of layoff costs, iso-cost line of the enterprise bends, which results in that the enterprise with a capital-labor substitution elasticity greater than 1 will not reduce labor hiring, as it has already deployed labor force before the implementation of the policy. When the enterprise enter the next production cycle where the labor force can be freely allocated, the labor employment of the enterprise with a capital-labor elasticity of substitution greater than 1 will decline compared to that without the policy. In the long run, as output increases, the labor demand will recover. The results of ex-post test are consistent with that of the ex-ante analysis. Additionally, heterogeneity test reveals that the greater the elasticity of capital-labor substitution of the sub-industry is, the more severe the degree of the V-shaped fluctuation is. Following the implementation of the policy, the continuous increase in enterprise output and capital stock verifies the relevant transmission mechanism. This study provides a more detailed perspective for comprehensively understanding the impact of VAT credit refunds policy on employment.

The paradigm of tax-reward and tax-punishment strategies in the advancement of public resource management dynamics.

In contemporary society, the effective utilization of public resources remains a subject of significant concern. A common issue arises from defectors seeking to obtain an excessive share of these resources for personal gain, potentially leading to resource depletion. To mitigate this tragedy and ensure sustainable development of resources, implementing mechanisms to either reward those who adhere to distribution rules or penalize those who do not, appears advantageous. We introduce two models: a tax-reward model and a tax-punishment model, to address this issue. Our analysis reveals that in the tax-reward model, the evolutionary trajectory of the system is influenced not only by the tax revenue collected but also by the natural growth rate of the resources. Conversely, the tax-punishment model exhibits distinct characteristics when compared with the tax-reward model, notably the potential for bistability. In such scenarios, the selection of initial conditions is critical, as it can determine the system's path. Furthermore, our study identifies instances where the system lacks stable points, exemplified by a limit cycle phenomenon, underscoring the complexity and dynamism inherent in managing public resources using these models.

Long-term impact of unhealthy food tax on consumption and the drivers behind: A longitudinal study in Hungary.

Several countries have introduced public health product taxes with the objective of reducing the absolute amount of consumption of unhealthy food and tackling obesity. This study aims to estimate the long-term impact of the Hungarian public health product tax introduced in 2011. To achieve this, a unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households from 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that the tax has been fully reflected in consumer prices. A decline in consumption was observed initially, consistent with previous experiences in Hungary and other countries. However, over time, the data suggests a recovery and even an increase in line with the growth of disposable income. The proportion of taxed products in total fast-moving consumer goods purchases increased from 5.9 % (95 % CI: 5.7 % to 6.0 %) in 2010 to 7.4 % (95 % CI: 7.3 % to 7.6 %) in 2018. Furthermore, the tax has contributed to increased inequality as low-income households spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on it. Although taxes on unhealthy foods have proven effective in the short-term, they may not be adequate for reducing overall consumption in the long-term, particularly as disposable income increases. In conclusion, implementing complex interventions is necessary to achieve sustainable positive changes in dietary habits.

Eco-friendly revenues for healthcare: assessing the relationship between green taxation, public health expenditures, and life expectancy in China.

Introduction: The synergy of green taxation, public health expenditures, and life expectancy emerges as a compelling narrative in the intricate symphony of environmental responsibility and public well-being. Therefore, this study examine the impact of green taxation on life expectancy and the moderating role of public health expenditure on the said nexus, particularly in the context of China, an emerging economy. Methods: Statistical data is collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China to empirically examine the proposed relationships. The dataset contains provincial data across years. Results: Using fixed-effect and system GMM regression models alongwith control variables, the results found a positive and statistically significant influence of green taxation on life expectancy. Moreover, public health expenditures have a positive and statistically significant partial moderating impact on the direct relationship. Discussion: These findings suggest that the higher cost of pollution encourages individuals and businesses to shift to less environmentally harmful alternatives, subsequently improving public health. Moreover, government investment in the health sector increases the availability and accessibility of health facilities; thus, the positive impact of green taxation on public health gets more pronounced. The findings significantly contribute to the fields of environmental and health economics and provide a new avenue of research for the academic community and policymakers.

An upstream approach to addressing the childhood obesity epidemic in New Zealand-a call to action.

Childhood obesity is a critical issue in New Zealand that we can no longer afford to ignore. Currently, one in three children is overweight or obese, putting the health of an entire generation at risk if we continue to delay taking action. This issue highlights a significant matter of equity. Maori and Pacific children and those from socio-economically deprived backgrounds are disproportionately affected, reminding us of the systemic barriers rooted in historical factors that exist within our society. Efforts focussed on changing individual behaviour have achieved limited success in reducing childhood obesity rates. Therefore, it is necessary to shift our focus upstream and address the root causes of this issue. This viewpoint piece underscores the role of the obesogenic environment as the primary driver of childhood obesity, advocating for an upstream approach to enact broader changes in the food environment. Within this framework, this piece puts forward three policy measures that could be essential in addressing the childhood obesity epidemic: implementing a tax on sugary beverages, restricting unhealthy food marketing and ensuring access to healthy food in schools. These policies are backed by substantial evidence of their efficacy, cost-effectiveness and potential to improve health equity, including contextual evidence from successful international models. However, despite ample evidence and support, New Zealand has fallen behind international standards in adopting these measures, partly due to resistance from the food industry and the need for stronger political leadership. Thus, a "call to action" is needed to overcome these challenges, mobilise against the current policy inertia and make addressing childhood obesity a priority.

Investigating the dynamics of tax evasion and revenue leakage in somali customs.

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of tax evasion and revenue leakage in the Somali customs framework, providing insights into the systemic opportunity structures, tax governance deficiencies, and personal incentive structures that facilitate these practices. By applying agency theory and rent-seeking theory, this research seeks to deepen the understanding of the complex relationship between individual motivations and systemic vulnerabilities in exacerbating corruption and tax evasion in a post-conflict governance context. By employing structural equation modeling (SEM) within the ADANCO-SEM analysis framework, this study analyzes primary survey data. This approach allows for a comprehensive examination of the relationships between systemic, governance, and personal factors contributing to corruption and tax evasion. The findings reveal a significant positive relationship between systemic opportunity structures, tax governance deficiencies, and personal incentive structures and the prevalence of tax evasion and corruption. Specifically, systemic opportunity structures were found to significantly influence both tax governance deficiencies and personal incentive structures, highlighting the intertwined nature of these factors in facilitating corrupt practices and tax evasion in Somali customs. This study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive reforms targeting systemic vulnerabilities, enhancing tax governance frameworks, and aligning personal incentives with the public interest. Practical applications include the adoption of advanced technological solutions for improved monitoring and transparency, as well as the development of targeted training programs for customs officials to foster ethical standards and compliance. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a unique empirical examination of corruption and tax evasion in the context of Somali customs, a largely underexplored area in the literature. By integrating agency theory and rent-seeking theory, this study offers novel insights into the mechanisms of corruption and tax evasion, highlighting the importance of addressing both systemic and individual factors in combating these issues.

A taxing problem: The impacts of research payment practices on participants and inclusive research.

Empirical data regarding payments to participants in research is limited. This lack of information constrains our understanding of the effectiveness of payments to achieve scientific goals with respect to recruitment, retention, and inclusion. We conducted a content analysis of consent forms and protocols available on clinicaltrials.gov to determine what information researchers provide regarding payment. We extracted data from HIV (n = 101) and NIMH-funded studies (n = 65) listed on clinicaltrials.gov that had publicly posted a consent form. Using a manifest content analysis approach, we then coded the language regarding payment from the consent document and, where available, protocol for purpose and method of the payment. Although not part of our original planned analysis, the tax-related information that emerged from our content analysis of the consent form language provided additional insights into researcher payment practices. Accordingly, we also recorded whether the payment section mentioned social security numbers (or other tax identification number) in connection with payments and whether it made any statements regarding the Internal Revenue Service or the tax status of payments. We found studies commonly offered payment, but did not distinguish between the purposes for which payment may be offered (i.e., compensation, reimbursement, incentive, or appreciation). We also found studies that excluded some participants from receiving payment or treated them differently from other participants in the study. Differential treatment was typically linked to US tax laws and other legal requirements. A number of US studies also discussed the need to collect Social Security numbers and income reporting based on US tax laws. Collectively, these practices disadvantage some participants and may interfere with efforts to conduct more inclusive research.

Transforming adolescent menstrual health through policy: the role of value added tax exemptions in improving access to sanitary products.

In Namibia, the Value Added Tax (VAT) Amendment Act 2022, which reclassified the supply of sanitary pads as zero-rated, has significant implications for adolescent girls' menstrual health and education. The policy change responds to the need to address period poverty by making essential menstrual products more accessible and affordable. Menstruation is a normal biological process, and access to sanitary products is a human right. Taxing menstrual products reinforces gender inequalities and raises concerns about the basic rights and dignity of women and girls. The VAT-free policy creates a system to reduce the financial burden on girls and women, making it easier for them to manage their periods safely and with dignity. It has the potential to reduce absenteeism from school, ultimately improving educational outcomes for adolescent girls. However, VAT exemptions alone are insufficient to address the broader accessibility issues that impact menstrual hygiene. Evidence-based policies that focus on the availability and affordability of a full range of sanitary products, in conjunction with regulatory mechanisms for price and quality control, are necessary to ensure that menstrual products are safe, affordable, and accessible for all.